Mild winter will continue - regardless of what the Groundhog says

The late Fred la Marmotte of Val-d'Espoir in the Gaspe region of Quebec. The new Fred will make his prediction early Friday morning. It appears we are in for an early spring. Time will tell. (CBC)

Groundhogs across North America, including the new Fred la Marmotte in Val-d'Espoir, Quebec, are preparing this Friday morning to deliver the forecast for the balance of our winter. Regardless of their predictions, there are strong indications that the milder than normal winter will persist. 

We are looking at temperatures above freezing once again Friday morning in Montreal, after around 7mm of rain here on Ile Perrot Thursday. As temperatures flirt with the freezing point early Friday morning, there could be some icy spots around. High pressure will try to build into southern Quebec today, but I expect cloud cover to hold in place most of the day. Temperatures will be mild, around 1C (34F).

As skies clear this evening into Saturday, we can expect slightly cooler weather, but still above normal for early February. The high on Saturday, along with some much needed sunshine, will be around -3C (27F). Fair weather will prevail well into the new work week, with mild days and chilly overnight periods. Daytime highs will be around -2C, with overnight lows seasonably cold, around -10C (14F).

This past week, temperatures soared across western Canada, After the mid-January deep freeze, hundreds of record highs were established including an incredible 21.1C (70F) at Maple Creek, Saskatchewan on Tuesday. This was also a new provincial record high for the month of January and part of 4 consecutive days with record highs. The previous provincial record was set on January 7, 2003 in Cypress Hills at 19C (66F). Record highs were shattered across all four western provinces.

January was warmer than normal across the entire province of Quebec. Despite the deep freeze for a few days in the middle of the month, most of Canada was warm as well. (Environment Canada)

Meanwhile the numbers are in for our January here in Montreal. To nobody's surprise the month was warmer than normal, with an average temperature at Trudeau Airport of -5.3C (22.5F), 4.4 degrees above the long-term average of -9.7C (14.5F). Precipitation was also above normal, with 90mm, including 57cm of snow. Most of that fell in two storms during the middle portion of the month. We have yet to drop to -18C (0F) this winter in the city.

What can we expect for February? Well Groundhogs aside, mild weather should persist into the second week of the month, with a flat jet stream and a warm ridge of high pressure across the west. Any storms will be pushed well to the south and east of Montreal. Beyond the middle of February, we are seeing indications of a return to a colder, stormy pattern. Whether that involves snow or not is yet to be determined. Below normal temperatures will return, but keep in mind we are now past the coldest time of the year in Montreal. The days are getting longer and average highs are creeping up.