Dangerous Hurricane Ida heading for Gulf Coast

A NOAA image of developing hurricane Ida southeast of the US Gulf Coast early Saturday. Ida is expected to become a major category 4 hurricane before arriving along the Louisiana coast late Sunday evening. Preparations are being rushed to completion today. (NOAA)

Hurricane Ida continues to strengthen in the southeast Gulf of Mexico early Saturday morning, forecast to become a major storm before reaching the Louisiana coast late Sunday afternoon. Ida will arrive 16 years to the date of infamous hurricane Katrina, now the benchmark for deadly hurricanes.

At 4am Saturday morning, Ida was located 825km southeast of New Orleans, moving northwest at 26km/h. Peak winds were at 130km/h (80mph), with Ida forecast to undergo rapid intensification on Saturday. Conditions are ideal for this strengthening, with extremely warm seas-surface temperatures as well a little wind shear, which can tear apart a storm.

Overnight, Ida forced evacuations along the western Cuba coast as the storm rapidly moved across the region with strong winds and torrential rains. The rain also spread across Jamaica and the The Cayman Islands.

The projected path of hurricane Ida over the next few days. (NHC)

Hurricane warnings are in effect for the central Gulf coast, with the impact zone stretching from east Texas to the Florida panhandle. The focus will be on central Louisiana near the barrier island of Grand Isle as well as the extremely vulnerable metro New Orleans. It was Katrina in 2005 that destroyed the levee system in New Orleans, inundating the city and killing thousands of residents.  

Evacuations are underway, with Ida expected to be near Category 4 status when the storm arrives on Sunday. Winds are expected to be in the 225km/h (140mph) range at landfall, along with a 4m (15 foot) storm surge. Rainfall will be epic along the track, with up to 500mm (20 inches) possible. 

While wind is often the focus of these powerful storms, the surge is what causes the most death and destruction. Storm surge is a wall of water pushed inland ahead of the center of the storm. Ida will have an impressive storm surge of between 10 and 15 feet. The surge ahead of Hurricane Katrina in 2005 was 25 feet along the Mississippi coast.

As I write this Saturday morning, evacuations are expanding rapidly across the Gulf coast as thousands flee inland. Once inland, Ida will weaken rapidly while meandering across the lower Mississippi Valley before moving off the middle Atlantic coast. Ida will become a big rainmaker with inland fresh water flooding expected. No weather from Ida is forecast at this time across southern Ontario or Quebec.