Hurricane watch raised for southern New England

The official National Hurricane Centre forecast map of the projected path of tropical storm, soon-to-be hurricane Henri. Henri was located southeast of the Carolina coast on Friday morning, expected to intensify and turn towards the north over the next 24 hours. A hurricane watch has been raised for the southern New England coast. (NHC)

Tropical storm Henri, located 1255km south, southwest of Nantucket, Massachusetts early Friday morning, is forecast to become a hurricane over the nest 24 hours. The storm is currently moving west, northwest at 15km/h, and expected to turn towards the north on Friday around a ridge of high pressure located over Atlantic Canada. Henri will then take aim at southern New England and Atlantic Canada.

It has been 30 years since a hurricane made landfall in coastal New England. On August 19, 1991, hurricane Bob raced into southern New England resulting in several fatalities and billions of dollars in damage. Most of the weather from Bob remained southeast of Montreal, and this should also be the case with Henri on Sunday. Perhaps some gusty northeast winds and a few showers may make into extreme southern Quebec.

The National Hurricane Centre has issued a hurricane watch for portions of Long Island, New York, coastal Connecticut, Rhode Island and Massachusetts. Henri is expected to arrive late Sunday afternoon, but heavy surf and gusty winds will arrive well ahead of the center. At this time, Henri is expected to produce a storm surge of 2 to 5 feet over coastal New England and Long Island, with rainfall of up to 8 inches (200mm) possible. Coastal and fresh water flooding is likely. Wind gusts over 90km/h will likely spread well inland into southern New Hampshire and Vermont.

While strengthening is expected over the next 24 hours, a slow weakening will begin thereafter as Henri encounters much colder water in New England. As the storm approaches the coast on Sunday, it will likely be a minimal hurricane or perhaps even a strong tropical storm. Nevertheless, severe weather impacts are expected. Swells from Henri will begin reaching the coast over the next 24 hours, this includes portions of New Brunswick and Nova Scotia. The swells will produce dangerous rip currents from the Carolinas to Nova Scotia.

The storm will then impact Atlantic Canada and especially Nova Scotia on Monday, with heavy rainfall and gusty winds expected. The Canadian Hurricane Centre will release an update at 9am Friday morning.

It has been a busy week in the tropics, with three named systems. Fred is currently a depression over New Hampshire after producing deadly flooding along the storms path, especially in North Carolina. Hurricane Grace weakened to a tropical storm after moving across the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday. Grace is expected to regain hurricane strength in the Gulf of Mexico today before hitting mainland Mexico in the wee hours Saturday morning.