Pattern change will result in snow & cold for Montreal

The first major snowfall of the season is forecast for many locations across southern Quebec on Friday. Montreal will have a mix of snow and rain with this system. A more significant storm is expected to develop by next Tuesday, with perhaps the first snowstorm of the season for Montreal.

A sharp pattern change is expected this weekend, with cold air pouring into southern Quebec and Ontario behind the next storm. Two areas of low pressure will affect the region Friday and Saturday, with a rain/snow mix forecast in Montreal. Thursday will be the last mild day for the foreseeable future, with a mix of cloud and sun, and a high of 7C (45F).

On Friday, clouds will thicken as low pressure approaches the region form the Great Lakes. A second low is forecast to move through New England, with a decent fetch of moisture pushing north over southern Quebec. Rain will develop late in the day, mixing with snow Friday night. Most of the St. Lawrence Valley can expect a cold rain from this system, but the upper elevations of the Laurentians and Townships may be looking at accumulating snow by Saturday morning. North of Montreal, the cold air will arrive sooner, with 15 to 20cm of snow possible. Gusty winds are also expected with this storm, 50-70km/h. Behind the low pressure, cold air will pour across the Great Lakes, with the first lake effect snowstorm forecast in Ontario and portions of western New York.

Prepare for winter driving if you have travel plans north or west of Montreal this weekend. Also now is the time to install those winter tires.

High pressure will then nudge into our region on Sunday, with the coldest airmass of the season expected so far. The high on Sunday will be at the freezing point, with overnight lows dropping to -6C (21F). The cold weather is expected to persist next week, with mid-December temperatures forecast.

First snowstorm for Montreal?
Another major storm is expected to develop along the US east coast by late Monday, possibly impacting Quebec with another snowstorm next week. This system may bring Montreal our first significant snowfall of the season. Some models are hinting at more than 15cm of snow in the city. There are still many forecast details to work out, as is common with Nor'Easters.

November - the cloudiest month of the year in Montreal

Deepening low pressure will move along the eastern seaboard into Atlantic Canada over the next 24 hours. Windy, rainy and cool weather can be expected in Montreal. (AccuWeather)

November may only be two days old, but already the month is living up to its reputation as the cloudiest in Montreal. On average the city has about 85 hours of sunshine in November, nearly half of that recorded in October, so it is a drastic drop. December does not have a whole lot more, but the colder weather is often accompanied by sunshine. Much of the dreary weather in November can be attributed to the shorter days as we head towards the winter solstice, but it is also a very stormy month. Winter weather patterns typically begin to win over those of the summer.

Looking back at October, it was a cold month across most of southern Quebec, the coldest since 1993. The average temperature was 6.8C (44.3F), 1.7C below normal. In terms of precipitation, we managed 75mm of rain along, with 3cm of snow of Trudeau Airport. Closer to home, I measured 76.2mm on L'Ile Perrot, with an average temperature also of 6.8C.

November has started off rather stormy, with a frontal boundary draped to our south, tapping into plenty of moisture. Low pressure is riding along the front Friday, while strengthening. Rain has been falling in Montreal since late Thursday night, and it is expected to continue well into Saturday. A gusty northeast wind has kept temperatures in the 3 to 5C range. The raw, dreary conditions will persist into Saturday with little movement in the temperature. The wind will actually increase Saturday as the low deepens and moves into Atlantic Canada. Gusts could reach in excess of 70km/h during the afternoon and evening hours. There is even the chance of some wet snow mixing in with the rain from Montreal west towards the Ottawa Valley on Saturday afternoon. Rainfall amounts will be around 25mm for Montreal, with 50 to 80mm expected across Atlantic Canada.

High pressure will finally move into southern Quebec on Sunday, with some brief sunshine. The temperature will remain below normal, with a high of 5C (41F). Enjoy the one day break from the rain, because yet another storm system arrives early next week with more clouds and precipitation, but milder temperatures.

Dreary and wet Halloween expected in Montreal

Several vehicles spun off Highway 401 near Mallorytown, Ontario on Saturday afternoon. The weekend storm produced widespread wet snow and rain across southern Ontario and Quebec. (Ontario Provincial Police Photo)

Sunshine has been at a premium these days across southern Quebec. Over the weekend, low pressure moving up the east coast, produced the first widespread snowfall of the season for many portions of eastern Ontario and southern Quebec. In Montreal, 3 to as much as 5cm of very wet snow fell on the metro area, with most of it melting on contact. North of the city and towards Quebec City, some of the white stuff remained on the ground. West of Montreal, snowfall was thicker with 5 to 10cm falling in eastern Ontario. Roads were very poor in sections of the province as well as along Highway 401 and 416 in Ontario. Numerous accidents were reported as unprepared driver failed to adjust their speed in the snowy conditions.

The storm also produced strong winds, gusting over 50km/h in Montreal, and as high as 100km/h along the St. Lawrence River near Quebec City. The weather was responsible for numerous power outages in the province. Along the US east coast, heavy rain and pounding surf produced flooding in many locations including New England, Long Island and New Jersey.

Wet Halloween in Montreal
The weather remains damp and chilly on Tuesday, with temperatures struggling to clear 5C (41F) in Montreal. The normal high should be 9C (49F) for late October. The balance of the week will be dreary and cool with plenty of rain at times. The best day of the week will be Tuesday, where a few breaks in the cloud cover may occur. By Halloween, another frontal system will cross the region with steady rain from late afternoon into the evening hours. Expect a cool, wet Halloween night, with temperatures around 4C (39F). I am trying to squeeze out a window of opportunity for trick or treating in Montreal, but sadly at this time, it looks wet. On Thursday, more clouds and showers are expected, with slightly milder high temperatures, perhaps 10C (50F). Another area of low pressure is forecast to bring steady rain on Friday, with as much as 25mm falling across the region. We may finally see some clearing by the second half of the weekend. Briefly looking ahead into early November, the stormy pattern is expected to continue, but with slightly milder temperatures.

Nor'Easter to bring rain and snow to southern Quebec

A developing coastal storm will bring a mix of rain and snow, along with strong winds to southern Quebec this weekend. Most of the precipitation should fall as rain in Montreal, but a messy mix may fall north and west of the city. (AccuWaether.com)

A developing nor'easter is forecast to move from coastal North Carolina towards southern New England on Saturday. The storm is forecast to strengthen while pushing moisture northward into southern Quebec by Saturday morning.  Temperature profiles suggest a mix of snow and rain here in the St. Lawrence Valley, with any accumulations confined to the higher elevations. A cold northeast wind is expected, gusting up to 50km/h, keeping the cold air in place in Montreal. At this time, the best chance for accumulating snow would lkely be overnight Saturday. The precipitation should last most of the weekend, with the potential for more than 25mm of rain and perhaps several centimetres of snow for some. The storm should lift northeast across New England on Sunday, with slowly improving conditions by late in the day.

Low pressure surprised many parts of northern New England, the Gaspe and New Brunswick, with the first major snowfall of the season on Wednesday. Over 30cm of snow fell on Mount Washington, New Hampshire, with 15 to 25cm falling in the Gaspe peninsula. (Maine Forest Rangers photo)

On Thursday, Montreal experienced a cold, breezy day, with the temperature only reaching 2C (36F). Partly cloudy skies along with diminishing winds, should allow the temperature to drop well below freezing in southern Quebec by Friday morning. A thick frost or freeze is likely. Friday will be the best day in the foreseeable future, with sunshine and high temperature near 6C (43F).

Active weather pattern expected for southern Quebec

The remains of hurricane Willa located in the Pacific Ocean, may eventually re-develop into a potent coastal storm along the eastern seaboard by the upcoming weekend. The potential exists for some locations to receive heavy amounts of rain or snow, along with very strong winds. (AccuWeather.com)

Many locations in southern Quebec and eastern Ontario reported the first snowflakes of the season on Sunday along with very cold temperatures. An unseasonably chilly air mass, combined with gusty winds, made it feel downright wintry at times to end the weekend. On Monday morning, I recorded the coldest temperature so far this fall, with -2C (28F) at my home on L'Ile Perrot. Some sunshine and light winds allowed the temperature to reach 6C (43) by the afternoon, but this is still well below the normal high of 11C (52F) for todays date. Clouds have since moved in, with showers expected tonight.

It is likely time to start thinking about getting those winter tires on. CAA Quebec recommends winter tires not only for snow, but also at temperatures colder than 7C (45F).

Potential winter storms

It may be time to consider putting on those winter tires, as the first measurable snow of the season may be in our immediate future. An unsettled and stormy weather pattern is expected to unfold across the eastern portion of North America over the next week. Cold air will remain in place across the region, along with a very active storm track. The first system is expected to move from the Great Lakes into Maine by Wednesday morning, accompanied by rain and snow. The snow may be heavy at times, especially over northern Maine, the Gaspe Peninsula and portions of New Brunswick. The snow may extend into the Eastern Townships of Quebec as well as northern Vermont.

The potential exists for an even stronger storm to impact the eastern seaboard, southern Quebec, Ontario and Atlantic Canada by the weekend. The storm is expected to develop from the remains of Willa, a powerful category 5 hurricane currently forecast to hit the Pacific coast of Mexico. The storm is forecast to move inland across Mexico and along the Gulf Coast this week. Some models have the system re-developing into a major Nor'Easter while moving up the east coast by Sunday. There are a ton of details to iron out, but it is worth noting that for some of us, we may see the first snow of the season. As always with Nor'easters, the proximity to the coast will in the end determine how much snow or rain Montreal receives, if any. 

Until then, expect showers and below normal temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday, followed by fair but cold weather to end the work week. Temperatures will remain below normal in Montreal, with forecast daytime highs between 5 and 9C (41 to 49F) and overnight lows of -4 to 0C (25 to 32F). A killing frost is likely in Montreal on both Thursday and Friday morning.

The end of the growing season expected across Southern Quebec tonight

The sun breaks through the clouds in Montreal on Wednesday morning. The weather pattern has shifted in Canada, with much colder air now moving into the eastern portion of the country. After a very warm fall to date in Montreal, conditions will be turning more seasonable to end October, and even a little wintry at times. (ValleyWeather Photo)

A frost advisory is in effect for Southern Quebec tonight, including metro Montreal. A cold front crossed the region on Wednesday, to be followed by the coldest air mass of the season. Overnight lows across southern Quebec and eastern Ontario will drop into the 0C to -5C (23 to 32F) range. A hard freeze is expected in many locations, which should end the growing season for most of us. Gusty west winds up to 50km/h will make it feel even colder tonight and early Thursday. A few showers or flurries are possible into the late afternoon and evening hours. South of the border across the Adirondacks of New York and the Green Mountains of Vermont, an inch or two of snow is possible tonight. Some lake effect snow is also forecast for the snowbelt off Lake Huron tonight.

It took some time for fall to arrive in southern Quebec, but it certainly looks and feels like it now. (ValleyWeather Photo)

Thursday will be blustery and cold, with daytime high temperatures remaining below 5C (41F) in Montreal, and near the freezing point across the upper elevations of the Eastern Townships and Laurentians. Late in the day Thursday, clouds will thicken up in Montreal as a warm front approaches the region. A fews showers are possible into Friday morning, along with much milder temperatures. The high Friday will be 12C (54F). We will repeat the cycle this weekend as another cold front moves into Quebec. The last two weeks of October are looking unsettled and cold, with several opportunities for our first snowflakes of the season here in Montreal.

Historic hurricane Michael slams Florida panhandle

Hurricane Michael made landfall near Mexico Beach, Florida on Wednesday afternoon. The powerful hurricane caused widespread catastrophic damage along the coast where landfall occurred. A peak wind gust of 130 mph was observed at Tyndall Air Force Base before the anemometer broke. At least two deaths have been blamed on the storm. Photo via Twitter @WVTM13

Hurricane Michael, the strongest October hurricane on record, rapidly moved inland near Mexico Beach, Florida at 1pm on Wednesday afternoon. The powerful storm was just a notch under a category 5 hurricane at landfall, with winds of 155 mph and a central pressure of 919 mb. Michael becomes the strongest October hurricane on record to hit the US since Hazel in 1954. Only one other storm was this strong at landfall in Florida, hurricane Andrew in 1992.

The results of the storm were devastating, with the only saving grace being how fast Michael raced through Florida. Michael is located 30 miles west of Augusta, Georgia Thursday morning, with 50mph winds. The hurricane leaves behind a heavily damaged Panama City Beach and Mexico Beach on the Florida Gulf Coast. Thousands of buildings were damaged or destroyed, with trees and power lines down everywhere. A storm surge of nearly 15 feet flooded most of Mexico Beach. Boats are strewn across coastal highways or submerged at there moorings. Power is out to over 700,000 customers in Florida, Georgia and South Carolina this morning.

Now tropical storm Michael is forecast to move across the Carolina's today and off the Virginia coast Friday. Strong winds, coastal flooding and 5 to 10 inches (125-250 mm) of rain are possible along the track of the storm. Michael is forecast to become a strong post-tropical storm as it moves across the coastal waters of Atlantic Canada over the weekend. At this time, most of the weather associated with the storm should remain offshore of the Maritimes.

Backdoor cold front for Montreal
In Montreal, Wednesday turned out to be a very odd weather day. The morning started off very warm and muggy, with a near-record high of 22C (72F). However a backdoor cold front, named for the "wrong" direction it moves in, from east to west, crossed the city by 9am. The front rapidly dropped the temperature in Montreal from 22 (72F) to 12C (54F) in less than one hour. The temperature remained there for the balance of the day, along with showers, gusty cold northeast winds and low clouds. Meanwhile just to our immediate south and west, temperatures soared into the upper 20s. This included a record high of 27.5C (82F) in Ottawa, smashing the old record of 23.9C (74F) set in 1955.

The summer-like weather will become history today, as a potent cold front moves across southern Quebec. Showers are forecast today, along with gusty northwest winds of 30 to 50km/h. The high temperature should reach 18C (65F) before cooling off late today. On Friday, expect clearing skies, windy conditions and a high near 11C (52F).  The weekend should be partly cloudy, but feeling like fall, with high temperatures near 12C (54F) and overnight lows near the freezing point in many locations.

Powerful hurricane Michael heads for Florida - record heat in Montreal

NOAA image of hurricane Michael early Wednesday morning. The powerful category 4 hurricane is located 140 miles south of Panama City, Florida.

Warm and humid air has dominated the last 24 hours across southern Ontario and Quebec, including a record high for Montreal. The 50 year old record fell Tuesday afternoon, as the temperature reached 26.8C (80F), crushing the 1958 record of 25C (77F). High humidity made is feel like the low 30s as tropical air surged northward. Conditions remained very mild and muggy overnight, with the low temperature our current reading of 20C (68F). A cold front will slowly sag south this morning, with scattered showers and thunderstorms expected today, along with slowly falling temperatures. Much cold air will arrive Thursday as as stronger cold front crosses the St. Lawrence Valley.

Hurricane Michael
Powerful hurricane Michael is heading for the Florida panhandle this morning. The category 4 hurricane, with winds of 140mph (220km/h), is expected to make landfall near Panama City Beach, Florida by midday Wednesday. Millions of residents have been ordered to evacuate the coast in advance of the storm. Even in a state with a rich hurricane history such as Florida, this storm is historic. No category 4 hurricane has ever hit the Florida panhandle. Michael is located 140 miles south of Panama City early Wednesday morning, moving north at 13mph (20km/h). Widespread warnings are in effect across the Florida Gulf Coast and northward into Georgia and the Carolina's. Heavy rain, strong winds and a catastrophic storm surge in excess of 13 feet are expected along the coast where the center makes landfall. Flooding rains of up to 8 inches are forecast along the path of Michael. Scattered tornadoes are also expected as the storm moves inland. Widespread damage and power outages are anticipated in the Florida panhandle and adjacent Georgia.

Michael is expected to race northeast across the southeast US through Thursday and eventually into the Atlantic Ocean near Virginia Beach. At this time the storm is forecast to brush southern New England this weekend but remain offshore of Atlantic Canada.

Record warmth possible in Montreal on Tuesday

Just when you thought it was safe to go back into the water, here comes hurricane Michael. The storm is forecast to become a strong hurricane as it approaches the Florida coast on Wednesday. While some rain is expected from Michael late this week in southern Quebec, the bulk of the system should remain well to our south. (NHC)

We have a very active weather week ahead for southern Quebec as an epic battle of the seasons gets underway. Low pressure over the central portion of the country, remains the dividing line between unseasonable cold in the west and building warmth in the east. Temperatures are well below freezing in Alberta and Saskatchewan on Thanksgiving morning, with snow falling in many locations.

Meanwhile a strong warm front is expected to lift across southern Ontario and Quebec later today and tonight, with warm and humid air surging into the region. On Tuesday, depending how much sunshine we get, the temperature may reach record levels in Montreal. The record for October 9 is 25C (77F) set in 1958. The forecast high on Tuesday is 26C (79F).  As the warm front moves north today, it will encounter a gusty northeast wind and stubborn cold air at the surface here in southern Quebec. This may slow the warming trend a little, and also deliver some showers and perhaps scattered thunderstorm into Tuesday. The warm air will be with us for at least 48 hours before a strong cold front arrives on Thursday.

Tropical Storm Michael
Complicating the forecast a touch will be the remains of soon-to-be hurricane Michael. Tropical storm Micheal is located about 115km south of the western tip of Cuba early Monday morning, with 110km/h (70 mph) winds. The storm is forecast to become a hurricane today, and approach the Florida panhandle on Wednesday. Micheal is expected to strengthen into as strong hurricane and could produce major impacts along the Florida gulf coast. Once inland, forecasters expect the storm to move into the water-logged Carolina's before approaching southern New England late in the week. Michael will likely send a surge of moisture into the cold front the is expected in southern Quebec on Thursday. We could be looking at very heavy rain and thunderstorms in Montreal. By Friday. much colder air will return to Montreal along with clearing skies and the risk of frost into the weekend.

So keep the shorts, winter coats and umbrellas handy, and prepare yourself for wild, changeable weather this week in the St. Lawrence Valley.

First frost in Montreal followed by a return to warmer weather

A record breaking 38cm of snow fell on Calgary this week, with as much as 60cm near Kananaskis. It was the largest October snowfall in 124 years of record keeping for the city. (CTV News)

The temperature in Montreal is set to fall rapidly late this afternoon and evening as a cold front has cleared southern Quebec. The mercury soared to 24.4C (76F) in Montreal Thursday afternoon, the warmest in the country, but expect it to fall just as quickly after sunset tonight. The wind will soon back to the northwest and gust to 50km/h this evening, ushering in the colder air.

Environment Canada has issued frost advisories across eastern Ontario and southern Quebec, with many areas expecting there first sub-zero temperatures of the season. The majority of the frost is expected away from metro regions and bodies of water. Friday will be sunny, crisp and cool, with a daytime high near 12C (54F). On the weekend, we can expect a repeat of the recent cycle of weather events, with sunny skies and warmer temperatures Saturday, followed by rainy, mild weather Sunday and Thanksgiving Monday. High temperatures will be 14C (56F) Saturday, but into the high teens and low 20s Sunday and next week.

More snow west, warmth east
The central part of the country is expected to become the battle line between winter conditions in the west, and warmer, summery weather in the east. Calgary measured 32.8cm of snow on October 2, the snowiest October day dating back to 1884. The previous record of 29.7cm was set on October 4, 1914, The unprecedented storm closed highways, delayed flights at airports and caused hundreds of accidents. Calgary has received help clearing the snow from Red Dear and Edmonton. Lighter snow stretched east into Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Northwest Ontario was the dividing line, with heavy rain and strong winds occurring there. The early onset of winter is expected to continue next week, with more cold weather and snow expected from Alberta to Manitoba. Another powerful storm is forecast to develop early next week in the southern Rockies, potentially spreading blizzard conditions into the northern plains and southern Prairies.

East of the storm track across southern Ontario and Quebec, more windy and warm weather is expected. Beyond next week, cooler weather may return to eastern Canada for the balance of October. While it will not be as cold as in western Canada, the temperature should return closer to normal values by late next week, or even slightly below. The normal high/low for Montreal this week should be 15C (59F) and 5C (41F) respectively.

Has fall finally arrived in eastern Canada?

A panda enjoys the record breaking October snowstorm at the Calgary Zoo Tuesday afternoon. (Photo Calgary Zoo).

On cue, October has started off cool and rainy across southern Quebec. Close to 10mm of rain has fallen in Montreal since late Monday. The temperature has remained rather chilly, with low clouds and east winds, reaching only 11C (52F) Tuesday afternoon. Drizzle and clouds are expected to persist into early Wednesday, before sunshine returns. A brief warming trend is expected Thursday, with the high temperature near 23C (73F). Another potent cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms late in the day, with cool and dry weather expected to return by Friday.

October in Montreal is expected to start off slightly warmer than normal, before colder air arrives during the second half of the month. The St. Lawrence Valley will act as the dividing line between the seasons, with several strong low pressure systems providing our region with rainy, windy weather. (AccuWeather)

The cool weather comes as quite a shock to the system after the unseasonable warm and humid September we experienced. September continued the trend established this summer, with two pronounced heat waves in Montreal, resulting in an average high of 17.6C, 2 degrees above normal. Trudeau Airport officially recorded two more days at or above 30C (86F), bringing the yearly total to 19. I can say with some certainty that this is where it will remain for the year.

Record Alberta Snow
Very cold weather over western Canada has resulted in several rounds of frost, freezing temperatures and even heavy snow. Some of that cold is eventually expected to make it into eastern Canada for the second half of October. Until then, southern Quebec and Ontario will remain on the boundary between very warm and humid weather along the southeast US coast, and the aforementioned western cold.

The cold weather in Alberta produced record snowfall on Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures struggled to make it to the freezing point, along with 25 to 40cm of heavy wet snow. Calgary International Airport reported 20cm of fresh snow as of 11am this morning, with 40cm at Kananaskis. Snowfall warnings remain in effect, with travel not recommended west of Calgary into the foothills.

Another round of thunderstorms expected in Ontario & Quebec

I am back to reality after spending the last week on vacation in coastal North Carolina, a trip that was planned long before hurricane Florence. The Outer Banks fared well, there was standing water and sand on roadways, along with some beach erosion, but nothing compared to the historic flooding that continues in the rest of the state and into South Carolina.

Catastrophic damage in Dunrobin, Ontario after the EF-3 tornado last Friday, September 21. (CBC)

EF-3 Ottawa Valley Tornado
While I was away, summer ended and fall started with powerful thunderstorms in the Ottawa Valley. A strong cold front generated tornado producing thunderstorms late Friday afternoon. Environment Canada has confirmed three tornadoes with this extremely rare September outbreak. The strongest was a high end EF-3 tornado that produced wind speeds up to 265km/h. The tornado developed at 4:40pm near Dunrobin, Ontario, and moved east into Gatineau, Quebec. Damage was extensive, with nearly 50 homes destroyed in Dunrobin and over 200 buildings damaged or destroyed in neighboring Gatineau. Cars were flipped over and power poles were snapped like toothpicks, with thousands of trees toppled. An EF-2 tornado affected portions of Ottawa near Arlington Woods, with winds of 220km/h. A third EF-1 tornado, with winds of 175km/h hit the region near Calabogie and White Lake. The cleanup continues in earnest Tuesday, with officials worried about the new threat for rain and thunderstorms.

The outbreak produced at least 30 injuries, 5 of those critical. Power was out to over 250,000 residents in Ontario and Quebec after the storms late Friday. As of Tuesday morning, as many as 10,000 still remain without electricity. The City of Ottawa closed schools on Monday, and asked government employees to work from home, in an effort to relieve pressure on the cities infrastructure. On average, Canada records 60 to 80 tornadoes each year, but EF-3 and EF-4 storms are extremely rare in this country. Only one EF-5 tornado has occurred in Canada, at Elie, Manitoba on June 22, 2007, with winds of 420km/h.

Additional damage occurred from a second tornado near the Arlington Woods suburb of Ottawa (Edith Lalonde).

More strong thunderstorms
Low pressure over the Great Lakes, is forecast to move down the St. Lawrence Valley over the next 24 hours. Rainy, windy and cool weather is expected on Tuesday, as a warm front crosses the region. As much as 25-50 mm of rain may fall in Ottawa and Montreal. On Wednesday, a strong cold front associated with the low will sweep across the region in the afternoon, accompanied by showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms may be strong, with heavy rain and gusty winds. At this time, it does not look like a repeat of the severe weather from last Friday, but we will need to see how unstable the air mass becomes Wednesday. Conditions will be warmer and more humid on Wednesday, with a high near 21C (70F) forecast for Montreal. Cooler weather returns Thursday into the upcoming weekend.

The calm after the storm on Hatteras Island, North Carolina. (ValleyWeather Photo)

Hurricane Florence inundates coastal North Carolina

First responders patrol the streets of New Bern, North Carolina on Friday morning, after the storm surge from Florence lefts as much as 10 feet of water in the community. (Global)

The center of hurricane Florence barely reached land Friday morning, slowly crossing the coast near Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina at around 6am. The once category 4 hurricane had 90mph winds at landfall, with numerous reports of gusts exceeding 100mph. The big story with Florence so far has been the tremendous amount of water that has accompanied the storm inland. The coast was inundated with a 6 to 10 foot storm surge along with battering waves. Widespread damage was reported to homes and infrastructure, especially in and around Wilmington. Power is out to over 600,000 residents in southeast North Carolina. Power lines and trees were down, with sand and water blocking many coastal roads. At 2pm Florence had 75mph winds and was located 35miles west southwest of Wilmington.

The Atlantic Ocean pours across North Carolina Highway 12 near the Village of Hatteras on the Outer Banks, during hurricane Florence midday Wednesday. (NCDOT Photo)

Torrential rain continues to fall across the coastal plain, with over 600mm reported in Atlantic Beach in the last 24 hours. The heavy rain is forecast to continue as Florence crawls along the coast at 5mph (7km/h). Forecasters estimate as much as 1000mm (40 inches) of rain could fall across the extreme southeast portion of North Carolina and adjacent South Carolina. There is a real concern for fresh water flooding lasting weeks as all that rain makes it into the rivers and streams.

The storm surge on Pamlico Sound, pushed the Neuse River over it banks Thursday night flooding New Bern under several feet of water. First Responders were forced to carry out nearly 200 rescues, with hundreds more trapped in their cars and homes. They were assisted by the Cajun Navy, a group of volunteers with private boats who assist in water rescues. The Cajun Navy were made famous after their selfless work in New Orleans after hurricane Katrina in 2005.

Florence is forecast to weaken while slowly drifting into South Carolina by Saturday. The forecast has the remains of Florence moving northward across the Appalachians and towards New York State by mid-week. Eastern Ontario and southern Quebec could possibly see strong winds and heavy rain from Florence by Wednesday. We will have to watch the system closely.

Unseasonable warmth, snow and hurricane Florence

An infra-red satellite image of hurricane Florence approaching the North Carolina coast early Thursday, September 13. (Tropical Tidbits)

It must be September. The weather has turned wild across parts of North America, as the seasons begin to do battle. While Montreal remains warm and humid, cold air has filtered into western Canada, with the first snowflakes of the season across northern Alberta and B.C. At the same time, no less than 5 tropical systems are in the Atlantic basin, including powerful hurricane Florence.

I will start here in Montreal, where high pressure will dominate our weather into the weekend. Sunshine will prevail, with very warm daytime highs of 27 to 29C (80 to 85F). We have a shot at some record highs late this week, especially Saturday, (29.4C, set in 1947, and Sunday, 26.9C, set in 1991). Our next threat for rainfall may actually come from the remains of Florence by next Tuesday. Plenty of weather has to happen before that scenario plays out.

Hurricane Florence
Hurricane Florence remains a formidable storm Thursday morning, despite some signs of weakening. The category 2 storm is located 325 km southeast of Wilmington, North Carolina at 5am, moving northwest at 24 km/h. Wind shear and dry air on the southern flank of the hurricane, has brought wind speeds down to 110 mph (175km/h), but Florence remains a very dangerous storm. Landfall is expected later today near Cape Fear, North Carolina, along with a surge of ocean water 6 to 13 feet high. The storm is expected to meander just off the coast of the Carolinas for as much as 36 hours while slowly drifting southwest. Forecasters expect a catastrophic amount of rainfall, perhaps in excess of 30 inches (750 mm). Widespread flooding is expected well inland. Georgia has been added to the list of regions under a state of emergency, which include Maryland, Virginia, North and South Carolina. While millions have evacuated, many remain behind, with the window of opportunity closing. Winds and seas are rapidly increasing this morning, with the outer bands of Florence already reaching the coast.

A beautiful but somewhat disturbing photo of summer snow taken Wednesday, September 12, in Fort St John, B.C. (Paula MacGregor)

Snow!
Finally, winter has returned to parts of Alberta and B.C., with up to 15cm of snow falling in several locations such as Slave Lake and Fort St. John. The unseasonably cold air mass has dropped temperatures below freezing this morning, including -2C (29F) in Edmonton. They can have it, I will take our hot, humid fall anytime over an early winter. We still have one week left to summer 2018.

Warm weather returns to Montreal - hurricane Florence expected to strengthen

Astronaut Ricky Arnold, from aboard the International Space Station, shared this image of Hurricane Florence on Sept. 10, taken as the orbiting laboratory flew over the massive storm. Tweeting from @astro_ricky, he said "Hurricane #Florence this morning as seen from @Space_Station. A few moments later, Isaac and the outer bands of Helene were also visible." (NASA Image)

Strong high pressure will build back into Montreal this week, after the passage of post topical storm Gordon Monday night. I measured just under 25mm of rain on L'Ile Perrot. The rain came to an end on Tuesday, but skies have been slow to clear. Look for sunshine to return by Wednesday afternoon, along with much warmer temperatures. By the end of the week, we may be looking at record warmth returning, with forecast highs from 27C to 29C (80 to 85F). The normal high for mid-September in Montreal is 20C (68F).

Hurricane Florence
The same high pressure that will provide southern Quebec and Ontario with ideal late summer weather, is also responsible for steering hurricane Florence into the Carolinas. At 2pm Tuesday afternoon, Florence was located 845 miles (1360km) southeast of Cape Fear, North Carolina. The storm was moving northwest at 17mph (28km/h), and was showing signs of strengthening, with category 4 winds of 130mph (215km/h). A hurricane watch is in effect for the North and South Carolina coast.

I am very familiar with the Outer Banks of North Carolina, having vacationed there since 1991. The 200 mile long chain of barrier islands is beyond beautiful, but also very fragile. The region is no stranger to hurricanes and powerful ocean storms, but Florence has many concerned. Hatteras Island, my location of choice, was the first to be evacuated, starting at 12pm on Monday. Evacuations have since been expanded to cover the region from coastal Maryland south into South Carolina. Millions of residents and tourists are heading inland today.

Florence is taking an unusual path westward towards the coastline, being blocked by the aforementioned strong high pressure centered north of Bermuda. Typically storms at this latitude move northeast out to sea. Florence is expected to approach the coast in the watch area by late Thursday, and then meander around coastal North Carolina through the upcoming weekend. A storm of this magnitude is capable of catastrophic damage. A storm surge of ocean water from 6 to 12 feet is possible as the center of Florence makes landfall. As much as 10 to 20 inches (250-500mm) of rain is forecast from the Carolinas into Virginia as the storm stalls inland. Significant coastal flooding and inland fresh water and river flooding is likely.

Mandatory evacuations ordered for the Outer Banks in advance of Hurricane Florence

Visible satellite image of a strengthening hurricane Florence early Monday morning. (NOAA)

1:00PM: Florence has exploded into a Category 4 hurricane with 130mph winds as of 12:30pm.

Dare County Emergency Management announced at 10am Monday, September 10, that a mandatory evacuation has been ordered for Hatteras Island effective at noon today. The evacuation will be expanded to the northern beaches including Nags Head and Kitty Hawk on Tuesday at 7am. All tourists and residents are urged to evacuate immediately in advance of a strengthening hurricane Florence. Tropical storm force winds and dangerous surf may arrive as early as Wednesday afternoon. Pounding surf is already lapping at the dunes along the Outer Banks.

Early Monday morning, Florence was located 625 miles southeast of Bermuda, moving northwest at 9 mph. The storm is rapidly deepening at this time, with winds of 105mph. Forecasters anticipate tht Florence will become a category 4 storm prior to landfall somewhere along the North Carolina coast by Thursday. There is still some uncertainty in the track and strength of Florence, but it is becoming more certain that the Carolinas will have significant impacts from this storm.

Gordon to bring heavy rain to Montreal - Florence takes run at east coast

Tropical activity has increased significantly over the last week. (NHC)

Hurricane season is well underway with 4 systems creating a stir in the Atlantic basin. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30, but September has always produced the most activity. Forecasters are tracking the remnants of tropical storm Gordon over Arkansas, tropical storm Florence, newly formed tropical storm Helene and soon to be Isaac.

The remnants of tropical storm Gordon are dumping heavy rain over the Midwest US. Amounts have been impressive, with 100 to 200 mm in several locations. Widespread flood warnings are in effect, as far north as Pennsylvania. A special weather statement has been posted for the St. Lawrence Valley and locations along the shoreline of the Great Lakes, for 30 to 60mm of rain on Monday. What is left of Gordon should pass fairly close to Montreal late Monday, with gusty winds and heavy rain expected.

Florence is expected to strengthen into a major hurricane this week while threatening the US east coast. (NHC) 

Florence
Our attention will then focus on tropical storm Florence. Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are entering uncharted waters with Florence. This storm has been difficult to pin down, not following any rules, with numerous different scenarios at play. One thing is certain this morning, Florence will strengthen and become a major hurricane as it approaches the southeast US coast by the middle of the upcoming week. Models have the storm reaching at least a Category 4 status by Wednesday, with 140 mph winds. What the models can't seem to nail down is a track. While Florence could still turn northeast out to sea, that window of opportunity appears to be closing. A likely target appears to be somewhere along the Carolina coast. I fear for my beloved Outer Banks. Landfall, if any, is still 5 to 6 days out, so a lot can change, especially with fickle tropical systems. Stay tuned! In the meantime stay dry on Monday in Montreal.

Fall-like weekend for Montreal followed by tropical troubles

An AP photo of heavy rain and flash flooding in coastal Alabama on Wednesday, as tropical storm Gordon moved inland. The remains of Gordon will sweep into Ontario and Quebec early next week.

A refreshingly cool air mass is in place Friday morning across southern Quebec, with some of the coolest temperatures since early June. Temperatures across the region are in the single digits, including 8C (48F) at St Anicet and 9C (49F) across the West Island of Montreal. High pressure will crest across the region today into the weekend, with nothing but sunshine. High temperatures will be either side of 20C (68F), with overnight lows around 10C (50F). Abundant sunshine and light winds, will make it a perfect weekend for anything outdoors.

Tropical Update
The remains of tropical storm Gordon, which made landfall in Mississippi earlier this week, are meandering across Arkansas early Friday morning. The system has produced very heavy rainfall between 100 and 200 mm (4 to 8 inches) along its path inland. Widespread flooding has occurred, with warnings stretching northeast into the Ohio Valley. Gordon will continue slowly moving off to the northeast over the weekend, arriving in southern Ontario and Quebec by Monday. We can expect a decent swath of rain across our region, with perhaps 25 to 50 mm (1-2 inches) falling into Tuesday. As Gordon becomes extra-tropical, winds will increase, with gusts up to 50km/h possible in the St. Lawrence Valley. The exact track of Gordon through Quebec will determine where the heaviest rain and strongest winds will occur. I am not expecting any flooding issues locally, as it has been very dry of late. We need the rain in extreme southern Quebec.

Hurricane Florence weakened to a tropical storm early Friday morning, located 955 miles southeast of Bermuda in the open waters of the Atlantic. The once powerful storm has encountered some shear, but this will be temporary. All indications are that Florence will restrengthen over the weekend and perhaps take a run at the Eastern Seaboard. It is very rare for a storm in this location to impact the east coast. Typically they will curve out to sea. However, Florence is being blocked by unusually strong high pressure to the north, the same high pressure that has been giving Montreal our hot summer. Computer models have been all over the place with the eventual track of Florence, but recent runs seem to be leaning on a potential impact to the middle Atlantic region and perhaps eastern Canada. It is way too soon to determine the impacts, if any to the east coast.

I have been tracking tropical systems since hurricane David in 1979, so I will be closely watching Florence over the weekend, and posting updates.

Tropical weather from Montreal to Florida

The National Hurricane Center is watching three areas of disturbed weather in the Atlantic basin this Labour Day. (NHC)

6 PM Update: Tropical storm Gordon has formed in the Gulf of Mexico, 50 miles southwest of Fort Myers, Florida. A hurricane warning is now in effect for the central Gulf Coast. Landfall is forecast by late Tuesday close to the mouth of the Mississippi River.

Previous post: Summer does not want to let go on this Labour Day weekend in southern Quebec. A warm and humid air mass is dominating the weather across the eastern portion of North America. The pattern is very similar to that of July and August in Montreal, with steamy humidity levels and warm temperatures. Montreal remains on the northern periphery of high pressure located near Bermuda. As a result, the weekend has been partly cloudy with numerous showers and thunderstorms.

On Sunday, some heavier storms put down a quick 17mm of rain on L'Ile Perrot. Trudeau Airport recorded 10.4mm. Some parts of north end Montreal had between 30 and 50mm or rain. More strong thunderstorms and heavier showers are possible Labour Day Monday. Temperatures were capped in the middle 20s on Sunday due to the clouds and showers, but should be in the upper 20s Monday and Tuesday. Wednesday will likely be the warmest day of the week, perhaps even the month, with high temperatures into the lower 30s and more oppressive humidity. Overnight lows to start the week at least, will remain warmer than the average daytime high for early September of 22C (72F). A cooler, drier air mass will arrive by Thursday.

NHC forecast track for tropical storm Gordon.

Tropical Atlantic Update
September is the peak period of tropical development in the Atlantic basin. So it is no surprise that we are looking at three systems today. The first is Florence, a 60 mph tropical storm located in the far eastern Atlantic, 900 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. At this time Florence is no threat to land.

Of more concern this week, is the tropical depression located in the Florida keys early Monday morning. This system is forecast to become tropical storm Gordon on Monday afternoon. A tropical storm warning is already in place for the central Gulf Coast from Florida to Louisiana. The biggest threat from Gordon will be heavy rainfall and the potential for life threatening flash flooding. The Gulf Coast was soaked with heavy rain last week, and any additional rainfall will cause flooding. Gusty winds and a 2 to 4 foot storm surge are also expected as the storms approaches the coast late Tuesday.

The third area of concern is located off the coast of Africa. This area of disturbed weather will be watch closely by the National Hurricane Center for any signs of development over the next few days.

Strong thunderstorms produce widespread power outages and an EF-2 tornado

The roof of a duplex in Saint-Leonard was peeled back by the strong thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon. (CTV News)

A fast moving line of strong thunderstorms swept across eastern Ontario and southern Quebec Wednesday afternoon. The storms were moving in excess of 50km/h, racing across the island of Montreal from west to east in less than 30 minutes. A wind gust of 93km/h was observed at Trudeau Airport as the front passed. Further east near Thetford Mines, an EF-2 tornado occurred in the rural region around Saint-Julien, with winds estimated between 180 and 220km/h. Accompanying the tornado was 50mm of rain and 2 to 4cm hail. Thousands of trees were flattened and a mobile home was destroyed. In eastern Ontario, a microburst with an estimated 170km/h wind gust, produced considerable damage to a farm north of Smiths Falls.

(CBC Photo)

In Montreal, numerous tees and branches fell as a result of the storm, several onto cars and hydro lines. A roof was peeled back from a duplex in Saint-Leonard. In the wake of the thunderstorms, Hydro Quebec reported over 170,000 homes and businesses without power in the province, most in metro Montreal and across the South Shore, West Island and Vaudreuil. The majority of clients had their power restored by Thursday morning.

The front ushered in much cooler and drier air, with a hint of fall in the air by Thursday morning. In Montreal the temperature fell from a high of 32C (89F) early Wednesday afternoon, down to 15C (59F) Thursday morning.

Warm and humid start to September
The cool, dry weather will be short-lived, as more heat and humidity will arrive across the Great Lakes and southern Quebec over the Labour Day weekend. There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms through Monday. High temperatures are expected in the upper 20s with humidex values in the middle 30s throughout long weekend. The warm weather is expected to prevail in Montreal through the first couple of weeks of September.

Elevated risk for strong thunderstorms Wednesday in southern Quebec

A strong cold front will bring an end to the current heatwave in Montreal. The storms should fire up this afternoon, impacting Montreal between 4pm and 8pm. (AccuWeather)

A Heat Warning remains in effect for southern Quebec for humidex values near 40C today.

A strong cold front will sweep across eastern Ontario and southern Quebec late today and into the wee hours of Thursday morning. Montreal has been entrenched in a soupy air mass this week, with high temperatures near 30C (86F) and oppressive humidity readings. Dew point temperatures, which are a strong indication of the amount of water vapour in the atmosphere, have been more Florida-like, in the middle 20s (70s F). Humidex readings exceeded 40C (104F) for over 4 hours in Montreal on Tuesday afternoon. Conditions would have been even warmer if it were not for several rounds of showers and thunderstorms.

Wednesday's cold front should arrive late this afternoon, with areas of strong thunderstorms developing in advance of the system. The most likely time for severe weather in Montreal, would be between 4pm and 8pm. The high temperature today will be near 30C. Any strong storms that do develop will have the potential to produce damaging winds and heavy rain. There is even a very slight risk of an isolated tornado north of metro Montreal. Keep in mind that with any scenario such as this, the storms are scattered in nature. While weather watches may be issued for a large area, the actual storms may only affect a small sector of the region. This is common with thunderstorm activity as we witnessed on Tuesday afternoon. They can pop up quickly, produce damaging winds and flooding rain and dissipate just as fast. Stay alert.

Cooler and much drier air will arrive on Thursday, with a daytime high of 23C (73F) and much lower humidity. Thursday night will be clear and refreshingly cool, with lows around 11C (52F).

Hot and humid return to school for students in Montreal

Hot and humid air will surge into Montreal and southern Quebec this week. Humidex values are expected to exceed 40C on Tuesday. (AccuWeather)

Environment Canada has posted yet another heat warning for southern Quebec through early Wednesday. The combination of heat and elevated humidity will make conditions feel oppressive over the next 48 hours. Humidex and heat index values will approach 40C (104F) Tuesday afternoon. The heat unfortunately will coincide with start of the new school year. Most schools do not have air conditioning, so it  will be uncomfortable to say the least. Temperatures are expected in the high 20s for Monday along with the risk of late day thunderstorms. Overnight Monday into Tuesday conditions will remain oppressive with lows in the low to middle 20s. On Tuesday, expect a breezy, hot day, with a daytime high of 32C (90F) in Montreal.

The hot weather will also extend into eastern Ontario, and south of the border across New York and New England. A heat advisory is in effect stateside for the St. Lawrence and Champlain Valleys. The late season heatwave will add to an already smoking hot summer. In the 84 days since the start of meteorological summer on  June 1, Montreal has exceeded 27C (80F) on 50 of those days. Included in that total are 15 days above 30C (86F).

Warm Fall
The late summer heatwave should come to an end on Wednesday, as a strong cold front ushers in cooler and dryer air. There is a chance of scattered severe thunderstorms on Wednesday for a portion of our region. With August drawing to a close, our attention will shift to fall. Current indications suggest a warm and dry September is on tap for southern Quebec. A weak El Nino is expected to develop through the fall and intensify into the winter months. If this scenario holds true, we may be looking at above normal temperatures through Christmas and into the new year.

Powerful hurricane Lane heads for Hawaii

Hurricane Lane early Thursday morning, located 290 miles south of Honolulu. (NOAA)

A state of emergency is in effect across the Hawaiian Islands in advance of powerful hurricane Lane. On Thursday, Lane was located 275 miles (445 km) south of Honolulu, meandering northwest at 7 mph. Winds gusted over 130 mph in the center of the hurricane making it a Category 4 storm. Lane had weakened slightly, down from a rare Category 5 storm earlier in the week.

Further weakening is likely over the weekend, but Lane will remain a strong hurricane as it skirts along the eastern coast of the islands. Even if Lane does not make a direct landfall on the island chain, significant impacts are occurring and expected to persist into the weekend. Extremely heavy rain has already produced flash flooding and mudslides. Just Thursday alone, some locations on the Big Island reported over 20 inches (500 mm) of rain. The slow movement of the storm will only prolong the serious flood threat. Huge waves have been crashing along the south facing beaches, with heavy surf expected to spread further north on Friday. A storm surge of up to 4 feet is causing significant beach erosion. Evacuations have been ordered, along with the closure of schools and businesses.

Despite Hawaii's location in the middle of the central Pacific, it has not had a direct landfall from a hurricane in 26 years. In 1992, Category 4 Hurricane Iniki devastated the island state with a direct hit, producing 145mph winds and over $3 billion dollars in damage. Only two other storms have made a landfall in the satellite era, Dot in 1959 and Iwa in 1982.

Heavy rain expected Friday in southern Quebec

While the storms missed Montreal on Wednesday, heavy rain fell along the northeast shoreline of Lake Ontario. The region around Kingston, Ontario was hit hard, with flash flooding reported. Between 25 and 90mm of rain fell across the region in just a few hours. (Global TV)

Many parts of southern Ontario, western New York and the northeast US have had a very wet summer. Wednesday was no different, as a cold front cut across the region, tapping into deep tropical moisture. The storms on Wednesday missed Montreal, but impacted the Kingston, Ontario region with flash flooding. Some neighbourhoods around Kingston reported 60 to 90mm of rain in a very short time. Numerous business and roads were flooded.

Further south in Pennsylvania and across the Mid-Atlantic US, the rain and storms have been relentless all summer. Streams and rivers are running very high, and serious flooding has already occurred, especially in Pennsylvania and New Jersey. In Wilkes-Barre and Scranton, over 100mm (4 inches) of rain fell on Monday alone. It was the most rain in a 24 hour period since Hurricane Connie in 1955. In the state capital of Harrisburg, 400mm (16") of rain fell during the month of July, the normal is 150mm (6 inches). At the same time, despite the oppressive humidity, parts of northeast New York, northern Vermont and Southern Quebec have been rather dry, with near drought conditions at times. Montreal has had close to 180mm (7 inches) of rain since June 1, but the majority of that has been very localized around Trudeau Airport, and occurred on just a few days. Rainfall to date in August is 33.6mm, the monthly 30-year average for the city is 94.1mm. On L'Ile Perrot, I have recorded 61mm since August 1, thanks to a few well placed thunderstorms.

Heavy rain and thunderstorms are forecast in Montreal on Friday. At this time forecasters are expecting 20 to 30mm rain.

Heavy Rain for southern Quebec
We will add to that monthly total on Friday, as low pressure over the Great Lakes combines with and advancing cold front to draw deep moisture northward from the Gulf of Mexico. The day will be very humid and unsettled, with heavy downpours and embedded thunderstorms likely. The showers will begin overnight in the Ottawa Valley and in the early morning hours in Montreal. The biggest threat for heavy rain in the St. Lawrence Valley will be in the afternoon. Rainfall accumulations could exceed 25mm (1 inch) in several locations. The storms should be fast moving, which should limit the risk of any flash flooding in metro Montreal. Skies should clear out early Saturday, setting the stage for a decent weekend, with just a slight risk of an isolated shower. Mostly sunny skies are forecast, with daytime high temperatures between 24 and 27C (75-80F).

Blazing hot summer across Canada from coast to coast

A spectacular photo taken in Orange County, California, as one of the worst fire seasons in recent memory continues across western North America.

The searing heat continues to impact large areas of Canada, with a focus on the west this weekend. A cold front moved through southern Quebec late Thursday, with isolated thunderstorms. A fast moving storm put down 15mm of rain in 20 minutes across Ile Perrot and Vaudreuil. The cold front brought in the coolest air of the month, with a morning low of 16C (61F) in Montreal. More importantly, the week long oppressive humidity finally broke as well.

The upcoming weekend will be warm once again, close to 30C (86F), but humidity levels should remain manageable. Sunshine will dominate in southern Quebec through Sunday evening, when our next chance for showers should arrive.

Dense smoke in B.C., has spread right across western Canada and into the northern US. (BC Wildfire Service Photo)

In Western Canada, hot high pressure is shattering records form B.C. to Saskatchewan. On Thursday, over 40 record high temperatures were established across the three provinces, including 40.8C (106F) at Kamloops, B.C. As I am writing this blog, temperatures once again are in the high 30s and low 40s across western Canada. Accompanying the heat has been dense smoke from forest fires burning across B.C. The smoke has lowered visibility from B.C. to western Ontario. Air quality alerts are in effect across western Canada, and southward into North Dakota, Montana and Minnesota.

In B.C. over 475 wildfires are burning, many being started from lightning strikes associated with dry thunderstorms. Rain is desperately needed. The high heat and extremely dry weather stretches from southern Canada to California, with thousands upon thousands of acres being consumed by fire. While Quebec and Ontario have been dealing with high humidity, dangerously low levels are being recorded out west, in many case lower than 10 percent.

Wicked thunderstorms cool off one hot city

Just one of the hundreds of lighting strikes over L'Ile Perrot late Monday afternoon. The atmosphere was charged with energy after a very hot and humid day that saw highs in the lows 30s and humidex values over 40C. (ValleyWeather Image)

The hot summer of 2018 has rolled into August, with little relief so far. On Monday, Montreal reached 31.7C (89F), the fifteenth 30C plus day so far this summer. Adding to the extreme heat was oppressive humidity levels, with the humidex over 40C (104F) for 6 consecutive hours on Monday. The blazing daytime heat and humidity was brought to an abrupt end around the supper hour, as a line of fast moving thunderstorms crossed the city. The storms affected my domain on L'Ile Perrot close to 6pm, turning day to night, with a vivid display of spectacular lightning. Winds gusted over 90km/h at several locations, and 82km/h at Trudeau Airport. A much needed 10-20mm of rain fell over a 30 minute period from Valleyfield to Dorval.

The combination of strong winds and lightning knocked out power to over 40,000 Hydro Quebec clients, most across the West Island, Monteregie and South Shore. As of 11am Tuesday, 5600 clients remain without power.

Looking ahead to the remainder of this week, we can expect less humid weather, but still warm and somewhat unsettled. There is a risk of more showers and isolated thunderstorms today and Wednesday, but the risk is slight. On Thursday, skies should clear along with dryer air. The temperature will remain above normal, as it has all summer in Montreal. Expect daytime highs from 26C to 30C (79F to 86F) with overnight lows a little more comfortable, between 16C and 20C (61F to 68F). Skies will be partly to mostly sunny from Thursday through Sunday.

Record hot July in Montreal - more of the same for August

A message many can relate to in parts of eastern Canada, is displayed on a business in French River, Ontario. The community, 500km west of Ottawa, is being threatened by the 27,000 hectare Parry Sound fire. Dense smoke has settled over many parts of northeast Ontario and western Quebec. (CBC)

The month of July is in the record books, and it was the hottest to date at Trudeau Airport. The average temperature at the airport in suburban Dorval was 24.2C, with data back to 1941. The only warmer month on record for the region was in 1921, downtown an McGill University, with an average of 24.7C. The long-term 30 year average for July is 21.2C. The city recorded at least 11 days above 30C, with many regions in southern Quebec reporting more. The hottest day here on LÌle Perrot, was a scorching 36.3C on July 2nd. Rainfall was highly variable across Ontario and Quebec, with the bulk of the precipitation falling in the final week of July. For example, Trudeau Airport measured 97.6mm for the month, but most of that fell over a 48 hour period on the 25th and 26th. By contrast, here on L'Ile Perrot, I only recorded 46.2mm. I am confident with that number, as most of the thunderstorm activity went north of my location. The overnight period provided very little relief in the city, with 13 low temperatures remaining above 20C at the airport. It was even warmer in the concrete jungle downtown. Combined with the heat, was days of oppressive humidity values, some of the highest numbers and longest duration ever recorded in Montreal.

The dry weather has continued the elevated threat of brush and forest fires across parts of the province. Currently, there are 19 fires burning in Quebec. At times on Thursday, the smokey air from the Ontario fires, was drifting across eastern Ontario and into southern Quebec. West winds transported the smoke into the region. In Ontario, over 47 fires are burning in the northeast portion of that province alone. The largest in the 11,000 plus hectare Parry Sound fire. Clouds and an increase in humidity helped firefighters on Thursday, but it continues to burn out of control. Heavy rain over the last two weeks has been confined to the area around Ottawa, and not further west and north where it is desperately needed.

Hot start to August
A warm and humid southerly flow of air continues to dominate the weather in southern Quebec. A strong Bermuda high is relentlessly pumping the heat and humidity northward into eastern Canada. These conditions are forecast to persist through the upcoming weekend. Expect daytime highs near 30C and overnight lows in the low 20s. The muggy weather will prevail most of next week as well. Only a few scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected in our region through the weekend, with the bulk of the activity remaining well south of Montreal, over New England and the middle-Atlantic.