Very dry weather conditions continue across southern Quebec

The trees are starting to show signs of colour as we enter the last weekend of astronomical summer. The Autumnal Equinox occurs on Monday, September 22 at 2:19PM.

Rain has been at a premium this September, with warm and dry conditions prevailing across most of Ontario and Quebec, eastward into Atlantic Canada, as well as adjacent portions New England. According to the Canadian Drought Monitor, nearly 71 percent of Canada is abnormally dry this September, with some of the worst conditions across eastern Canada. Atlantic Canada has reported one of the driest summers on record, with widespread drought, crop failures, wildfires and water shortages.

Here in Montreal, water levels are very low on all area waterways with many municipalities encouraging water conservation. Boating could be a dangerous endeavor, with rocks and debris appear in many spots as water levels continue to drop. One example of low water levels is Lac St-Louis at Pointe Claire, where the current level is at 20.68 metres (67.8 feet), close to the record low of 20.64 metres (67.7 feet) for the date. The average level is around 21.2 metres (69.5 feet) for September.

In June, only 22mm of rain fell at Trudeau Airport, that was followed by 133mm in July, however most of that fell in a single thunderstorm. August saw a return to dry and hot conditions, with only 67.1mm reported, again most of that falling on one or two days. September has been the driest month yet this summer, with only 19.4mm to date. The bulk of that fell in just a few hours on September 4. We have had only a trace of rain since then.

We need rain! This map above prepared by Agriculture Canada shows a significant departure from normal rainfall across most of the country, as much as 200 percent below normal in eastern Canada. This trend has been persistent all summer.

The forecast is not encouraging either as we head into the upcoming weekend. Strong high pressure has dominated our weather this week in southern Quebec. Temperatures have been above normal, with no precipitation. A weak cold front Thursday afternoon may produce a widely isolated shower or thunderstorm, but the chance is low and they will be scattered. The cold front will introduce a wind shift along with cooler temperatures for Friday. The high Thursday will be a summery 27C (81F), dropping to around 10C (50F) overnight and into the upper teens for Friday into the weekend. Some locations outside of metro Montreal do have a risk of frost Saturday night.

An upper level low and a frontal boundary will try to increase the coverage of showers early next week, but at this time amounts look too low to make a dent in the drought.

For the time being, conserve water, be vigilant if boating on area waterways, and be extremely careful with any outdoor burning.

Another stretch of dry weather ahead for southern Quebec

The Suburban, along with Tanguay, held our second annual Family and Pet Day in Cote St-Luc on Sunday. This was a rain date from August 24, when the threat for thunderstorms made it unsafe. Thankfully for the many in attendance, the rain held off this time, with the exception of a few menacing black clouds and gusty winds, along with an isolated sprinkle or two. (Valley Weather)

Strong high pressure has settled into southern Quebec on Monday morning, and will slowly drift southeast over the course of the upcoming week. This will result in another stretch of sunny and dry weather for our region. Temperatures have started off cool Monday morning, with many locations in the single digits, including 9C (48F) at Trudeau Airport. 

Montreal will warm to near 20C (68F) Monday and well into the middle 20's for the balance of the work week, with nothing but sunshine expected. The overnight period will feature clear skies, and cool temperatures, either side of 10C (50F).

The lack of precipitation this summer has resulted in drought conditions across many parts of southern Quebec, especially in the eastern portion of the province as well as Ontario and Atlantic Canada. (ECCC)

The next chance for rain will not come before the upcoming weekend. While the pleasant late summer weather is welcome by many, the area remains excessively dry. Large portions of Canada are actually in one stage or another of drought. In August, most of Quebec had below normal precipitation, with the deficit ranging from 25 to as much as 100 percent below the long-term average. The rain that has fallen in Montreal has often been too much at once, with too many days in between events.

We did manage a few millimetres of rain over the weekend, bringing Montreal up to 21.4mm for the month, but that amount remains below the long-term average to date for September. Southern Quebec needs a slow, soaking rain. Nothing is on the horizon at this point.

Strong winds cut power to over 70,000 homes across southern Quebec

Hydro-Quebec crews are on the ground Friday morning, repairing damage caused by a gusty cold front that moved across southern Quebec late Thursday. At the height of the outages, more than 70,000 customers were in the dark. That number is down to just under 40,000 Friday morning. (Hydro-Quebec)

A fast moving cold front generated strong winds late Thursday afternoon, cutting power to over 70,000 Hydro-Quebec customers across the southern part of the province. This included close to 4400 in the Montreal region. Hardest hit were the Laurentians and Monteregie regions. Early Friday morning, just under 40,000 customers remained without power. A majority of the outages were caused by downed tree branches coming in contact with wires and transformers.

The strong late-summer cold front dropped temperatures from a daytime high of 29C (85F) in Montreal, down into the upper teens in a matter of minutes around 5pm. A few heavier showers and embedded thunderstorms produced a gust front, with winds briefly in the 60-100km/h range locally. Officially at Trudeau Airport, the wind gusted to 63km/h. There were no weather warnings in effect at the time of for the front. Some much need rain fell as well, with 17.8mm recorded at Trudeau Airport, while I measured 11mm at my home on Ile Perrot.

We can expect a calm, sunny Friday, with a warm high near 24C (76F). Winds will increase during the afternoon hours once again, gusting between 20-50km/h. On Saturday, an upper level low will drift over the region, with a cool, breezy and showery day expected, the high will only be 17C (63F). Sunday at this time looks fair, with some cloudy periods and perhaps an isolated afternoon sprinkle or two. The high will be 20C (68F).

Welcome to Meteorological Fall

September skies can be spectacular as Summer begins to give way to Fall. This vivid rainbow developed late Tuesday afternoon after some isolated showers and thunderstorms moved across Ile Perrot and the West Island of Montreal. (Photo: Valley Weather)

Well fall arrived September 1st, at least according to the meteorological community, astronomical autumn will catch up on the 22. September has started off warm, with well-above normal temperatures since Labour Day Monday. Clouds are on the increase as I write, with a strong cold front to our west. While Montreal is at 23C (73F) as of 10:30AM, Toronto, behind the fall-like front, is down to 12C (54F).

The front will produce some gusty southwest winds today, up to 50km/h, along with some thunderstorm activity later this afternoon. A period of steady rain Thursday evening, will taper off by morning, with a fair and warm day forecast Friday.

The cooler air will eventually arrive in Montreal, but it may take a day or so. Another slow moving cold front and upper level low will bring us showers and thunderstorms Saturday. On Saturday, the core of the colder air will arrive, along with showers and a high of only 17C (63F). Sunday into early next week will feature cool nights, with seasonable days along with fair weather through Wednesday.

Our hot and dry summer is now in the record books. In June, only 22mm of rain fell at Trudeau Airport. That was followed by 133.1mm in July, but most of that fell in a few hours on the 13th. August was the hottest month this summer, with 7 days over 30C (86F), including a 6 day heatwave, and the warmest temperature this summer for Montreal,  35.1C (95F). The heatwave included 3 record highs. Montreal managed 70mm of rain, but most of that fell during the last few days of the month. In fact, only 7 days has measurable rainfall at Trudeau Airport.

September heralds the change of seasons. The skies can be dynamic as one season yields to the next. Indications are we can expect temperatures and precipitation fairly close to normal. We will lose nearly 90 minutes of daylight in Montreal from the start to the end of the month. The trees are already showing signs of colour. The fall foliage may be greatly diminished this fall, as many trees are showing signs of heat stress, which can limit the colours.

Slow moving cold front bringing much needed rain to Montreal

A slow moving cold front has been lying just to the northwest of Montreal all day Thursday. That front will finally press southeast this evening, bringing with it a decent 15-25mm of rain for the Montreal region. Friday will be breezy, cloudy and cool, feeling very much like Autumn across southern Québec.

It has been a dry month and a dry summer. To date, Montreal has measured 41.2mm at Trudeau Airport this August, most of that falling on just a couple of days. This is well below the long-tern average for the month of 93.6mm. The lack of rainfall has been evident, with watering restrictions, dangerously low levels on area lakes and rivers and heat stress reported to crops, tress and even your lawn.

Thursday afternoon we are watching a very moist and achingly slow moving cold front draped from southwest to northeast, located just north of Montreal. This front is the dividing lone between a fall-like airmass and warmer more humid air to the south. As I write, Montreal is 24C (76F), while Ottawa is only 17C (63F). Along the front steady rain is falling, with a few rumbles of thunder.

That front will begin to affect the Montreal region late this afternoon and especially this evening and overnight. Steady rain will persist into the morning hours on Friday along with cooler temperatures. Rainfall amounts will settle into the 15-25mm range. Not a drought-buster, but certainly helpful.

Overnight lows will drop into the teens, and as winds back to the northwest, temperatures will struggle to rise on Friday under cloudy skies reaching near 17C (63F).  Saturday will be cloudy and cool as well, feeling more like September. But the news is not all bad for the long holiday weekend, with sunshine expected both Sunday and Monday, with daytime highs rebounding into the middle 20's. Nearly perfect late summer weather for the Labour Day holiday.

Hurricane Erin pounds the Eastern Seaboard with high surf

Pounding surf from Hurricane Erin inundates homes in Buxton, North Carolina along the coast of Hatteras Island on the Outer Banks. Despite being over 300 kilometres form the coast, Erin has produced significant flooding and some structural damage. (WTKR)

Category 2 Hurricane Erin was located 340km east of Cape Hatteras early Thursday morning, with 165km/h (105mph) winds and a central pressure of 945mb. The large and powerful storm sent towering waves crashing into coastlines from the Carolinas to Nova Scotia, producing coastal flooding and dangerous rip currents. Mandatory evacuations were in place for Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands on the Outer Banks of North Carolina, where State Highway 12 was closed due to ocean over wash and significant flooding over several high tide cycles. Some structures have already been damaged. 

Erin is a large storm, stretching over 1200 kilometres in  diameter, with hurricane force winds extending outward165km from the centre, and tropical storm force winds an incredible 520km from the eye.

On Thursday morning, Erin was located 340 kilometres to the east of Cape Hatteras. The storm was forecast to race off to the northeast today passing south of Atlantic Canada on Friday. Heavy surf is forecast from the Carolina's to Newfoundland for the next 36-48 hours. (Windy.com)

For those of you who frequently read my blog, you are aware of my passion for the Outer Banks. I had been vacationing their since 1991. During my last trip in 2018, I sat under Jennette's Pier in Nags Head, with my dog Bella. It was her last trip. Our time their was spectacular. Today, the Pier is reporting a wind gust to 87km/h, with a 2 to 4 foot surge and towering waves. Not an ideal beach day to say the least.

Erin will continue to produce coastal flooding along the Outer Banks, spreading north into Virginia and the Middle Atlantic States. Later today, gusty winds and heavy surf will move into the Northeast and New England including Long Island and Cape Cod. 

Earlier this week, Hurricane Erin produced heavy rain and flooding in Puerto Rico. At the time, Erin was a powerful category 5 storm, with winds in excess of 160mph. (Unknown Facts)

The heavy wave action will begin to impact the south facing coast of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland Friday and into the upcoming weekend before Erin races off to the northeast. Winds may gust to 70km/h along the Nova Scotia coast late Friday and Saturday. Gale to storm force winds are expected in the offshore marine waters of Newfoundland, with seas building to 8 to 10 metres (26-33 feet) by Saturday.

The tropical Atlantic will continue to remain active, with the National Hurricane Centre watching two more areas for development as we head into the peak part of the season.

A taste of autumn for Montreal

A NOAA satellite image showing powerful hurricane Erin Sunday afternoon, located northwest of Puerto Rico. The storm should stay away from land, but will grow in size, sending towering waves towards the Eastern Seaboard and Atlantic Canada coastline this week. (NOAA/NHC)

And just like that, mid-summer weather became September-like in less than 6 hours. If you needed a break from the intense heat, you will have one this week. Montreal did manage another 30C (86F) day on Saturday, before a strong cold front swept across the region early Sunday morning. The front was accompanied by gusty northeast and eventually northwest winds, some much needed rainfall and rapidly falling temperatures. By mid-morning, the mercury had fallen to 15C (59F) here on Ile Perrot.

A decent 11.6mm of rain fell along the front at my weather station on Ile Perrot, but we need more to alleviate the dry summer we have had. Watering restrictions remain in place for several communities on the West Island as well as Vaudreuil-Dorion and here on Ile Perrot. 

The fall-like airmass that moved into southern Quebec will be with us for most of the upcoming week, a big change from the hot and humid weather that has persisted for most of the summer. Late afternoon sunshine did allow the temperature to rebound Sunday, close to 21C (70F) as I write this update. We can expect clear skies overnight, with cool lows in the upper single digits to around 12C (54F) in downtown Montreal. Monday will be fair and cooler, with a high of 21C. Clouds increase Tuesday as another frontal system approaches southern Quebec. 

The Canadian Hurricane Centre forecast track of Erin as the storm turns north this week and approaches Canadian offshore waters. (CHC/Environment Canada)

Hurricane Erin

Erin became the first Atlantic hurricane of the 2025 season on Saturday, strengthening into a major Category 5 storm, with 255km/h winds, less than 24 hours after forming. Thankfully, the catastrophic strengthening occurred far from land. 

Erin has since weakened slightly to a Category 3 storm, with winds of 205km/h as of 5pm Sunday afternoon. Erin was moving west northwest at 20km/h, with a forecast turn to the northwest and eventually north expected. The center of the storm was located 445km northwest of San Juan, Puerto Rico, with a barometric pressure of 946mb.

To date Erin has avoided any direct impacts to land, but her size and strength has spread heavy rains in Puerto Rico. Erin is expected to continue to grow in size and may deepen once again as the storm moves offshore of the United States east coast and eventually moving southeast of Atlantic Canada my the end of the week. Heavy surf and rip currents are forecast to spread from Florida to Newfoundland this week.

At this time, a tropical storm warning is in effect for the Turks and Caicos Islands as well as the southeastern Bahamas, with Erin producing strong winds and heavy rain as it brushes this region Monday. All interests from the Carolinas to Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of hurricane Erin this week.

Hurricane Erin will have no impact on the weather here in southern Quebec.