Heavy rainfall warning issued for southern Quebec

Mount Royal and the Montreal skyline during a spectacular October sunrise on Wednesday morning. The sun is gone for a few days, with heavy rain and gusty winds arriving just in time for Halloween. (Valley Weather Photo)

Widespread heavy rainfall warnings have been issued for southern Quebec and eastern Ontario, with 40-70mm forecast. Deepening low pressure will move from the Ohio Valley into southern New England today, while a secondary low develops along the middle Atlantic coast. That low will draw in some moisture form hurricane Melissa as it travels between Bermuda and the offshore waters of Atlantic Canada. The heavy rain may cause some minor flooding issues, especially where falling leaves are blocking sewers and gutters.

Rainfall from the first low has already arrived in Montreal Thursday morning, and should fall throughout most of the day. Overnight into Friday morning, additional moisture will arrive from the southeast, with localized heavy rain possible. Winds will increase from the northeast Thursday 20-40km/h, backing to the northwest Friday afternoon, and increasing to 30-50km/h. The cool, damp and breezy weather will make for a rather challenging Halloween in Montreal. I still think that the weather may break for Trick or Treating, with more showery conditions opposed to heavy rain.

Regardless of the precipitation falling, the weather will dark, windy and downright spooky. Temperatures will be chilly, in the 5C to 9C (41F to 49F) range throughout the forecast period and into the weekend. There may even be a few snowflakes on Halloween night as much cooler air moves in behind the departing low. They will most likely be confined to the higher elevations, but I would not be surprised to see a flake or two around Montreal into Saturday morning.

Skies will finally clear by Sunday as high pressure settles into the region.

Extensive damage across Jamaica from Hurricane Melissa

Ground zero for Hurricane Melissa was New Hope and Black River (above) in the southwestern part of Jamaica. Significant damage was reported with many structures failing in the 185mph winds. (Black River Fire Brigade)

The Canadian Red Cross is accepting donations for Jamaican hurricane relief HERE.

The island nation of Jamaica has declared a state of emergency after powerful category 5 Hurricane Melissa swept across the country on Tuesday. Melissa was the strongest storm in modern times to strike Jamaica, with landfall near New Hope at 1pm Tuesday. At landfall, Melissa was the third strongest hurricane on record in the Atlantic Basin, with winds of 295km/h (185 mph), and a barometric pressure of 892mb. Only Wilma in 2005 and Gilbert in 1988 were stronger.

Melissa slashed across the country with fierce winds and torrential rainfall. Communications were brought down, along with trees and power lines. Many structures failed in the relentless winds. Major flooding has been reported across the country, as Melissa dumped between 350 and 750mm of rain.

Hurricane Melissa at 1pm Tuesday afternoon, making landfall near New Hope in southwestern Jamaica. (NOAA)

In Black River and New Hope near where landfall occurred, homes were shredded along with a hospital and police station. Debirs lines the streets, with many roofs torn from homes. The storm produced significant damage at Sangster International Airport near Montego Bay, where video showed flooding and roof failure. 

The full extent of the damage has yet to be determined as many parts of the country are completely isolated due to significant flooding and blocked roads. The death toll stands at 7 across the Caribbean, with three reported in Jamaica.

Melissa remains a dangerous hurricane Wednesday morning, bringing strong winds and flooding rains to eastern Cuba. The storm was located 70km northwest of Guantanamo Bay, with 165km/h winds (105 mph) and a central pressure of 968mb. The good news is the storm had been downgraded to a category three, but remains a major hurricane. The forward speed has increased to 22km/h. Hurricane conditions will spread into the Bahamas on Wednesday before Melissa heads for Bermuda.

Canadian Hurricane Centre forecast track showing Melissa coming close to Newfoundland on Saturday. (CHC)

By Saturday, Melissa will be in Canadian waters, undergoing extra tropical transfomation southeast of Newfoundland. Heavy surf, strong gusty winds and even some rainfall may be possible for southeastern Newfoundland and the Avalon Peninsula as the storm begins to expand in size into an extratropical cyclone. Details to follow in future posts.

Frightening weather forecast for Halloween in Montreal

Dark skies and showers early in the week gave way to sunshine and typical October weather on Tuesday and Wednesday. Unfortunately, the fair weather will not hold for Halloween, with strong low pressure expected to bring Montreal a damp, breezy and cool night for Trick or Treating. (Valley Weather)

Expect a cool, breezy and damp Halloween night in Montreal.

After a rather chilly but fair weather week in Montreal, low pressure will move into the region unfortunately bringing with it a wet Halloween forecast. High pressure will dominate our weather Wednesday, with sunny skies, light winds and a seasonable high around 10 (50F).

Clouds will increase overnight as low pressure begins to organize in the Tennessee Valley. This system will deepen as it move along the spine of the Appalachians into southern New England. A surge of moisture ahead of the storm will push rain into the St. Lawrence Valley on Thursday. 

Meanwhile a secondary area of low pressure will develop along the middle Atlantic coast and become the stronger storm as it lifts into northern Maine by Saturday. Deep Atlantic moisture will stream into southern Quebec on Friday. Combined both these storms will deliver a soaking rain from late Thursday into Friday. In all, 25-50mm is possible in the Montreal region.

The hope is that the steady rain will taper to a more showery situation by Trick or Treating time Friday night, but the weather will still be damp, breezy and cool regardless. Temperatures will be cool throughout the period, with lows around 5C (41F) and daytime highs in the upper single digits. Sunday turns even colder with lows near freezing and a high around 6C (43F). Gusty northwest winds will make it feel even colder.

Saturday will remain cold and damp with scattered showers and even a snowflake or two across the higher elevations of the Eastern Townships, Adirondacks and Green Mountains.

Powerful Hurricane Melissa to slam Jamaica

A NOAA Satellite image of powerful hurricane Melissa early Monday morning, 205 kilometres south of the Jamaican coast, with 260km/h winds. The storm is expected to produce catastrophic damage and flooding along its path across Jamaica and into Cuba over the next 48 hours. (NOAA)

What could be the strongest hurricane to hit Jamaica since Gilbert in 1988, is poised to make landfall Monday night across the south coast of the country. Hurricane Melissa is a powerful Category 5 storm early Monday morning, located 205 kilometres south, southwest of Kingston over the very warm waters of the Caribbean Sea.

A NOAA Recon Aircraft reported winds of 260km/h (160 MPH) at 5AM Monday, with a barometric central pressure of 917mb. Melissa could be historically the strongest storm to hit Jamaica since record keeping began. Gilbert was a Category 3 storm when it hit the island nation in 1988. That storm was the worst natural disaster ever to hit Jamaica, producing an incredible $2.9 billion dollars in damages. Gilbert was responsible for 45 deaths, leaving 500,000 homeless in Jamaica.

Melissa could be the strongest hurricane to ever hit Jamaica since Gilbert in 1988. The approach to the coast from the south is particularly concerning, with a path forecast across the most populated portion of the island nation. (NewScientist/AP Photo)

A hurricane warning has been issued for Jamaica, southern and western sections of Hispaniola as well as eastern Cuba. A hurricane watch was issued Monday morning for the Bahamas. Melissa is drifting west at 6km/h, but expected to turn north and east into Jamaica tonight and across eastern Cuba on Tuesday. Torrential rainfall is expected to produce catastrophic flooding and landslides across several Caribbean Islands, with 350 to 750mm forecast, with the highest amounts reaching up to 1000mm (40 inches).

Weather conditions are already deteriorating rapidly Monday morning across Jamaica, as winds, seas and flooding rainfall increase in intensity throughout Monday.

Winds are expected to gust between 200 and 300km/h, especially across the highest mountaintops. A storm surge of 9 to 13 feet is expected along the south coast of Jamaica. Mandatory evacuations have been ordered in coastal regions. Melissa is expected to remain a major hurricane through the next 48 hours as it moves across Cuba and towards the Bahamas, eventually brushing past Bermuda. At this time, Melissa is expected to remain well east of the US coastline passing southeast of Atlantic Canada.

Weather pattern shift continues across southern Quebec

Much needed rainfall this week, along with cooler temperatures has made the outdoors it feel and look more like late October. The fall colours are popping in the Montreal region, with most other areas past peak. Gusty winds this week have removed many leaves form the trees, but some, like this maple on Ile Perrot, remain spectacular. (Valley Weather Photo)

More rain fell in Montreal on Monday evening than in the entire month of September and in October to date. Over 35mm fell in Montreal, alleviating the fire risk and bringing much needed moisture to area waterways.

The pattern change that accompanied the rain will continue, with near or slightly cooler than normal temperatures persisting into next week. An upper level low spinning over the Great Lakes, will slowly drift into southern Quebec and eventually northeast of our region by the weekend. Expect the weather to be like, well, October for the next few days. Stubborn clouds, along with gusty west winds, will keep temperatures around 10C (50F) into Saturday. A few isolated showers are possible, especially during the afternoon hours.

Locations closer to the Great Lakes and St. Lawrence Valley have the higher risk of seeing those showers. Overnight lows will drop into the single digits. Cold temperatures are expected in the Eastern Townships and higher elevations of upstate New York and Vermont, where a few snowflakes are possible on Friday evening. At this time, there is no snow in the forecast for Montreal.

High pressure will try to clear the skies out in Montreal by Saturday afternoon into Sunday, but clouds and precipitation are expected to return early next week. Temperatures will remain on the cool side of normal through the forecast period.

National Hurricane Center forecast track of Tropical storm Melissa. The storm is expected to strengthen into a major hurricane this weekend, threatening Jamaica. (NOAA/NHC)

Tropical Storm Melissa

While this year's hurricane season has been active, the majority of the storms have remained out over the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean. Melissa may become a serious problem as early as this weekend. The tropical storm is located early Thursday morning 345 kilometres southeast of Kingston, Jamaica. The storm is meandering around the Caribbean Sea, drifting northwest at 7km/h. Wind shear is keeping the storm rather disorganized and in check, but that is expected to change.

Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center expect Melissa to become a major hurricane this weekend, with potential catastrophic impacts for Jamaica, Haiti and parts of Cuba. Steering currents are very weak at this time, as a result the forecast is subject to change. At this time, dangerous flooding and mudslides are possible over Haiti, Jamaica and the Dominican Republic. Rainfall amounts may exceed 250mm through Friday.

Winds, waves and storm surge are forecast to increase through Saturday along the southern coasts of all three countries as well as Cuba and the Cayman Islands. A hurricane watch in in effect for the region.

October weather set to return to Montreal this week

Summer in October. Hazy sunshine along the banks of the St. Lawrence River on Sunday afternoon, as temperatures soared into the 20s. Low water levels have created a new beach on Ile Perrot. Thankfully rain is forecast this week. (Valley Weather Photo)

Much needed rainfall and cooler weather on the way for southern Quebec this week.

The summery, fall weather was nice while it lasted, but the end is just a few hours away. Rain is on our doorstep Monday morning as low pressure moves north of Montreal trailing a slow moving, potent cold front behind it. That will establish a pattern change, at least for the week ahead and perhaps beyond.

Our weather has been unseasonably warm and dry, the warmest coming on Sunday, when the mercury hit 22.3C (73F) at Trudeau Airport. That was well-above the normal high for mid-October of 11C (52F), and just shy of the record high for the date of 24.7C (76F) set in 2007 Saint Anicet and Cornwall, Ontario were the warmest locations in the country Sunday, approaching a remarkable 28C (83F). 

Strong southerly winds gusted as high as 70km/h across the region. This combined with low relative humidity values and our ongoing drought, resulted in several wildfires igniting. One such fire burned 4.5 hectares near Chemin Lac St-Louis in the South Shore community of Lery. I watched from Pointe-du-Moulin on Ile Perrot as a provincial water bomber doused the fire, bringing it quickly under control, with the help of firefighters on the ground.

A Canadair CL-415 Super Scooper prepares to drop water on a wildfire burning near Lery on the South Shore Sunday afternoon. Tinder dry conditions, warm temperatures and strong winds helped spread the fire over at least 4.5 hectares. Other fires were reported in eastern Ontario and upstate New York. (CTV NEWS/Corey Wilson)

The tinder dry conditions also sparked other fires around eastern Ontario, upstate New York and southwestern Quebec. Burn bans have been in place for several weeks now, but despite this, most of the fires so far this year have been caused by campfires or open burning of debris and vegetation.

I was amazed by how low the water level is on the Saint Lawrence River, despite the release of water this weekend from the Moses-Saunders Dam near Cornwall on Saturday. We now have a beach on Ile Perrot, beautiful fpr a Sunday afternoon walk, but water levels are too low.

RAIN... FINALLY!

The good news is we have a much cooler and moist airmass on the way for this week. Rain and thunderstorms are forecast fro Monday, with as much as 25mm expected. The showery weather will persist all week, as an upper level low settles over the region. We may have 25-50mm of rain by Friday, easily surpassing the total so far this moth, that is stuck at 22.4mm for Montreal. 

This will be real October weather for a change, as temperatures settle back down into the low teens for highs and around 4C (39F) for lows by midweek. The cooler, damp weather will persist into next weekend, with even the risk of a few snowflakes over the higher elevations north and southeast of the city by Thursday into Friday.

Warmer weekend - much needed moisture on the way for Montreal

My annual photo showing the date of the first frost of the season on Ile Perrot. Most locations across southern Quebec have now reported frost, with the growing season winding down. (Valley Weather)

Strong high pressure has led to a frosty morning Friday, in Montreal, with temperatures dropping close to the freezing point at many locations. Most locations off island have already had the first frost of the season, so while a frost advisory will likely be posted Friday night as well, the growing season is coming to an end.

Precipitation remains at a premium in southern Quebec this month as it has most of the summer an early fall. To date, only 22.4mm of rain has fallen at Trudeau Airport, falling on two days this month, Drought conditions remain severe to extreme across a wide area from central and southern Ontario across the St. Lawrence Valley and into northern New England.

While the fall weather this year has been spectacular, we desperately need rain. Only 22mm has fallen at Trudeau Airport in October, with large parts of the region reporting severe to extreme drought conditions. The wildfire risk remains very high to extreme with outdoor burning prohibited or strongly discouraged for most parts of southwestern Quebec. (Valley Weather)

High pressure will remain in control of our weather through the upcoming weekend, but there is some good news on the horizon as far as rainfall is concerned. Temperatures will warm over the weekend, from cool daytime highs of 13C (55F) Friday, to near-summer warmth Sunday at 22C (72F). Gusty southwest winds are expected Sunday, in advance of a cold front that will usher in a pattern change next week.

Two areas of low pressure will pass north of Montreal next week, dragging several frontal boundaries across southern Quebec. Clouds and showers wil prevail for a good portion of the week, with estimates of 25-50mm (1-2 inches) of rain for the week. Temperatures will trend cooler as well, with highs dropping into the lower teens.

An aerial view of severe flooding in the village of Kotzebue, Alaska after the passage of what was left of Typhoon Halong. Thousands are homeless and damage is significant in many villages across the western part of the state. (Alaska Department of Transportation and Public Facilities Photo)

Active Weather Week

It has been a very active weather week across many parts of NorthAmerica, despite our quiet weather here in Montreal. A strong Nor'Easter last weekend remained largely south of Montreal, producing widespread coastal flooding from North Carolina to Long Island. Homes were inundated and roads washed away. Thousands were left without power from New Jersey to North Carolina.

Meanwhile in western Canada, a strong fall storm produced the first significant snowfall of the season across parts of southern Alberta and Saskatchewan on Thanksgiving Day. Travel was extremely difficult, especially in Alberta. Some locations reported over 10cm of fresh snow, along with wind gusts over 80km/h.

In Alaska, the remains of Typhoon Halong produced strong winds, heavy rain and a devastating storm surge resulting in catastrophic flooding. Several homes were washed away, leading to the evacuation of over 1500 residents. Several villages in the western part of the state were flooded with homes washing out to sea. One death has been reported so far.

Frost advisory for southern Quebec - drought lingers

FALL RETURNS: The record heat in Montreal Sunday and Monday, came to a quick end on Tuesday as a strong cold front crossed the Montreal region. Temperatures dropped to more seasonable values along with the first rain for October, 19mm in Montreal. Temperatures dropped form the record high of 29C (85F) Monday, to 22C (72F) Tuesday, and 17C (63F) Wednesday. Frost is likely Thursday night. (Valley Weather Photo)

Frost Advisory for Montreal

What may have been our last really warm weather of the season came to an abrupt end Tuesday along a strong cold front. That front brought the first rain for the month of October to Montreal, with a general 15-20mm falling across southern Quebec. For the short-term, the ban on open fires has been lifted for the Montreal region, but it remains in effect for other parts of western Quebec. The wildfire risk remains extreme for many, with much more rainfall needed to alleviate the drought conditions and tinder dry forests. If at all possible, just avoid any campfires, fire pits or fireworks all together.

There is no rain in the forecast through at least Sunday. The cooler temperatures that have settled into our region will allow for some frost to develop by Friday morning. A frost advisory is in effect. While Thursday morning was chilly, with lows close to the freezing point, gusty northwest winds kept the risk for frost minimal in the city.

Thursday will be a sunny, cool day, with highs only reaching the low teens. Overnight into Friday, clear skies and calm winds will allow for lows close to 0C (32F) and perhaps our first real frost for most of the region around metro Montreal.

High pressure will be in control of our weather through Sunday, with fair weather and moderating temperatures, into the upper teens for highs and upper single digits for lows. Some shoers may develop Thanksgiving Monday on the far northern edge of a strong Nor'easter coastal storm. That storm is expected to produce very heavy rainfall, strong winds up to 100km/h and pounding surf along the middle Atlantic and northeast coastlines. Montreal may see some clouds and showers along the extreme northern edge of the storm.

A home falls into the Atlantic Ocean in Buxton, North Carolina. The Outer Banks have been pounded by serval major storms this year, with another forecast this weekend. (National Park Service Photo)

First Nor'easter of the fall season

For those of you who read my blog and a regular basis, you will know that I vacation often on the Outer Banks of North Carolina, specifically Hatteras Island. That region has been taking a beating this summer, with several major hurricanes passing well offshore but delivering towering waves and surf. The result has been significant beach erosion, with infrastructure, roads and homes falling victim to the Atlantic Ocean. Just last week, at least 9 homes fell into the surf in Buxton and Rodanthe. 

The news of another significant coastal storm on the heels of hurricanes Humberto and Imelda is not welcome for the residents and tourists of the region. According to the National Park Service that manages the beaches, the value of the homes alone lost last week alone was placed at more than $5 million dollars, with  a very costly cleanup underway.