Thursday, February 27, 2020

Snowfall warning for Montreal

Expect highly variable travel conditions across southern Quebec today, with heavy snow north and west of Montreal, and rain along the US border.
Precipitation has been fairly light so far in Montreal, with just a centimetre of snow overnight. Radar shows heavy precipitation moving in form the south early Thursday morning. Look for a mix of wet snow and rain in Montreal for the morning commute.

Strong low pressure will move from upstate New York into the St. Lawrence Valley today. Heavy wet snow is falling west of Montreal in the Ottawa Valley, while a rain/snow mix persists in southern Quebec. All regions should change to snow by the middle morning hours, with the exception of regions along the US border and in the Eastern Townships.

Snowfall amounts will be highly variable with this storm, ranging from less than 5cm along the US border to upwards of 30cm across the Ottawa Valley, the Laurentians and into the Quebec City region. The wind will become a major factor later this morning, gusting up to 70km/h in the Montreal region, and as high as 100km/h along the north shore of Lake Ontario, and in the Quebec City region. Expect widespread blowing snow in regions where snow is falling. The winds should diminish this evening and overnight as the storm moves to the east of Montreal.

Temperatures will be very mild this morning in Montreal, up to 3C (38F). They should begin to drop by mid-morning, reaching -4C (25F) by the end of the day.

In the wake of the storm, heavy lake effect snow is forecast to develop around the Great Lakes. If you have any travel in this region through Friday, expect very poor driving conditions. Blizzard warnings are in effect for western New York, including the Interstate 81 corridor for those travelling south for spring break. Some of the stronger squalls may even reach as far as southern Quebec on Friday, but they should be light in nature.

Wednesday, February 26, 2020

Complex winter storm to impact Quebec & Ontario

A strengthening winter storm will move from the Ohio Valley towards eastern Ontario over the next 36 hours. Heavy snow mixed with rain is forecast to develop in Montreal late Wednesday. (AccuWeather.com)
Snowfall Warning for metro Montreal and the St. Lawrence Valley including eastern Ontario as well as Toronto and southern Ontario.
Winter Storm Warning for Quebec City, Ottawa and the Laurentians

Travel will become extremely difficult tonight and Thursday as heavy precipitation and strong winds sweep southern Quebec and Ontario. Widespread weather warning are in effect.

Low pressure developing over the Ohio Valley early Wednesday, is forecast to deepen and move towards Lake Ontario and the St. Lawrence Valley on Thursday. A warm front extending from the low, will lift northward towards southern Quebec overnight tonight. A very complex forecast is setting up, with temperatures just marginally cold enough for snow.

The low will split the region in half, with heavy wet snow north of the St. Lawrence River, into Laval, the Laurentians and Ottawa Valley. South of the storm track, likely including portions of metro Montreal, a mix of wet snow and rain will occur. Powerful winds will develop early Thursday morning with the precipitation, gusting up to 70km/h in Montreal and 100km/h in the Quebec City region. The strong winds will produce blowing snow in many regions, especially north and east of Montreal.

In terms of accumulations, amount will range from just a few slushy centimetres near the US border, to 15cm or more in Montreal, 25cm in Ottawa and as much as 35-40cm in the Laurntians and Quebec City. Even Toronto is in on the action this time, with up to 25cm forecast for parts of the GTA.

Temperatures throughout the storm will be either side of 0C (32F). As the low pressure moves off to the east late Thursday, much colder air will be drawn in on the back side of the system. Temperatures will drop into down to -8C by Friday morning. Precipitation will taper off to flurries on Friday.

Monday, February 24, 2020

Early taste of spring to be followed by another winter storm for Montreal

Our first taste of spring in Montreal this year, will be followed by a winter storm late Wednesday and Thursday. Between 15 and 25cm of snow is likely in southern Quebec, along with blowing snow. (AccuWeather.com)
Special Weather Statement in effect for southern Quebec and Ontario.

As I write this, the temperature just hit 10C (50F) at my home on Ile Perrot late Monday afternoon. Spring is in the air, with plenty of sunshine and lots of melting snow. Most regions across southern Quebec are reporting daytime highs between 5C and 9C (41F - 48F) today, well above the long term average of -2C (28F). Skies will trend party cloudy overnight, as a weak cold front slips south of the St. Lawrence Valley. The front will be dry, with no precipitation, but temperatures will drop, back below freezing by morning, at -1C (30F). On Tuesday, expect partly cloudy skies, still mild, but not as warm as Monday, with a high of 4C (39F).

That ends the good news in the weather department. Complex low pressure if forecast to develop over the southern US on Tuesday and move northeast towards the Ohio Valley by Wednesday. The strengthening storm system will then move across southern Ontario and into Quebec. Secondary low pressure may develop along the east coast, complicating the forecast. At this time, a mix of rain and snow is forecast for Montreal.

Precipitation will start Wednesday across southern Ontario and during the evening hours in southern Quebec. Light rain will develop in Montreal and mix with snow after midnight. Precipitation will change to heavy wet snow by early Thursday morning. At this time, we are looking at 10-15cm for Montreal, with the bulk falling during the Thursday morning commute. More snow is forecast north of the city into the Laurentians and Ottawa Valley, where up to 25cm is possible. Precipitation will be accompanied by gusty winds, up to 60km/h. Travel is likely to be impacted from late Wednesday afternoon into early Friday morning.

Temperatures will start the day mild on Wednesday, but drop below freezing by evening. The high on Thursday will be near 0C (32F) in Montreal. Much colder weather will return for Friday and the upcoming weekend, with temperatures dropping back below normal.

Thursday, February 20, 2020

A well deserved period of calm weather for Montreal

The carnage left behind after blowing snow resulted in a 140 vehicle pile-up on Highway 15 in South Shore La Prairie. Sadly 2 fatalities occurred along with over 30 injuries, some critical. (CTV News)
High pressure is cresting over southern Quebec early Thursday morning, along with clear skies and cold temperatures. The high for Montreal will be around -10C (14F) Thursday, dropping to -19C (-2F) overnight into Friday morning. On Friday, warmer air will begin to stream into the region, with a few clouds around and daytime highs of -2C (28F). This weekend into early next week will feature calm weather, with lots of cloud cover, but very mild temperatures as we go above freezing each day from Saturday through Tuesday. Look for highs in the plus 2C to 5C range (35 to 41F) and lows just below freezing, between -1C and -4C (25 to 30F). The next change for precipitation will arrive by late Tuesday in the form a light rain or snow.

The forecast comes as a relief to many after what has been a conveyor belt of storms this month. Since February 1st, Montreal has recorded 60.4cm of snow, over 2 feet. Other regions in southern Quebec have had even more, as much as 70cm on Ile Perrot for example. Our most recent snowfall came along a strong arctic cold front early Wednesday morning. The front produced scattered snow squalls, some which were quite potent in southern Quebec, dropping 2-5cm of snow in a very short period of time during the Wednesday morning commute. The front was followed by rapid clearing but also very strong winds and dropping temperatures. Wind gusts were reported between 60-70km/h in southern Quebec on Wednesday through the middle portion of the day.

Massive multi-vehicle accident
The wind, combined with all the fresh snow on the ground, produced very dangerous blowing snow conditions across area highways, especially south of Montreal. During the early afternoon on Wednesday, a small accident during a white-out on Highway 15 in La Prairie, became a massive 140 vehicle pile-up within minutes. The accident resulted in 2 fatalities and over 30 injuries, some critical. The Surete du Quebec continue their investigation, but indicate that poor visibility and speed were the likely culprits.

The highway was reopened at 1:15am Thursday morning after a lengthy cleanup.  This stretch of road is notorious for major accidents from blowing snow. The winds blow the snow onto the highway from the frozen La Prairie basin along the St. Lawrence Seaway. Wednesdays weather shows you just how dangerous and changeable winter driving can be, even on what appears to have been a sunny February afternoon. We simply drive too fast for the conditions.

Monday, February 17, 2020

Snow expected for the Tuesday morning commute in Montreal

Another round of accumulating snow is forecast for the Tuesday morning commute in Montreal. Allow extra time on Tuesday morning, with 5 to 10cm expected for the city.
Snowfall Warning in effect for the Laurentians, Lachute, St Jerome and Quebec City
Winter Weather Advisory for the Ottawa and St. Lawrence Valley

The temperature roller coaster ride will persist this week, as it has all winter long. High pressure has been in control of our weather Monday, with abundant sunshine and seasonable temperatures. Clear skies will prevail into the evening hours, with temperatures dropping quickly after sunset to early lows of -13C (9F) in Montreal.

Clouds will be on the increase after midnight as developing low pressure moves from the southern plains into the Great Lakes. A warm front will lift north with the storm system, producing and area of light to moderate snowfall. The snow will move into Ontario overnight and unfortunately approach Montreal in time for the morning commute. Accumulations of 5 to 10cm are likely along the St. Lawrence River, with 15-20cm north of Laval into the lower Laurentians. These regions are under snowfall warnings. A weather advisory is in effect for the St. Lawrence Valley in Ontario.

The timing of the snow will result in another slow morning commute in southern Quebec. Look for snow covered roads and reduced visibility. Precipitation should taper off in the the afternoon, as temperatures rise to the freezing point. Winds are expected to pick up as well on Tuesday afternoon, gusting between 40 and 60km/h in Montreal.

The temperature will briefly rise above freezing up to 3C (38F) during the evening hours, as the warm front lifts north of the valley. A few isolated showers are possible, changing back to flurries as the  temperatures drops once again below freezing, down to -5C (23F) by Wednesday morning.

Wednesday, February 12, 2020

More snow followed by arctic air for Montreal

The mounds of snow are growing across the suburbs of Montreal. Crews have been hard at work carting away the snow from three separate storms over the last week. More is on the way Thursday, with 5 to 10cm expected over southern Quebec. (ValleyWeather Photo)
Another shot of snow is on the way for southern Quebec, adding to the 45 to 55cm that has fallen since last Thursday. Low pressure over the Ohio Valley will rapidly move across central New England on Thursday and out into the Atlantic. The storm will be quickly followed by a surge of arctic air late in the day.

Snow will spread into Montreal before the morning commute Thursday, and taper off to flurries in the afternoon. Environment Canada is aiming low for Montreal, calling for 2-4cm total accumulation. I feel it will be more in the order of 5 to 10cm in southern Quebec and eastern Ontario, with up to 15cm along the US border. The snow may be enhanced briefly during the morning hours as an arctic cold front cuts across the region. Winds will increase out of the northwest and temperatures will plummet in the afternoon and evening hours. The high Thursday will be reached early in the morning in Montreal, at -1C (30F). The temperatures will fall into the -20s by Friday morning across our region. Most of central Quebec is under extreme cold warnings, for windchill readings near -40C. Montreal can expect windchill values well into the -20s.

Friday will be blustery and cold, with daytime highs struggling to reach -12C (10F). The weekend will be milder once again, but unsettled with plenty of clouds and flurries around. As we head into next week, another winter storm may impact Montreal by Tuesday with measurable snow.

Saturday, February 08, 2020

Schools closed - hundreds of accidents from largest winter storm of the season

A major multi-vehicle accident forced the closure of Highway 73 south of Levis, Quebec. (Photo by Jean-Philippe Veilleux via Facebook)
Students were given a rare snow day in Montreal and across most of southern Quebec on Friday, as the biggest snowstorm of the season hit the region. Strong low pressure raced from northern Virginia across interior southern New England and into New Brunswick by days end. The system spread heavy snow across the St. Lawrence Valley, with a storm total of 35cm in Montreal. Elsewhere in the province up to 50cm of snow fell. In Ontario, 25-35cm fell from Ottawa south into the Seaway. A record low barometric pressure for February of 970.2mb, was recorded in the center of the storm over Connecticut. Montreal's lowest pressure was an impressive 979.8mb at 2pm on Friday. The storm could have been even worse, but moved rather quickly across our region.

Conditions were less than ideal within the city limits as well, with rapidly accumulating snow making driving and parking difficult. (ValleyWeather Photo)
Strong winds occurred with the snow, gusting to 61km/h in Montreal and as high as 95km/h in the Quebec City area. The winds produced widespread blowing snow, enough to create white-out conditions, closing several highways in and around Quebec City. Visibility was under 1km for most of the day in Montreal. Provincial Police reported over 1200 separate accidents across the province as a result of the storm, including two multi-vehicle collisions. One occurred on Highway 20 at the Ontario border, forcing the closure of the road and long delays. The other was near Levis involving as many as 35 vehicles. Another major accident occurred on Highway 40 in Vaudreuil during the afternoon commute.

Keeping the streets clear during the storm in Sainte-Anne-de-Bellevue. 
(Photo - Ville de Sainte Anne de Bellevue)
Air travel was hit hard by the storm, with hundreds of delays and cancellations reported at Trudeau Airport. The airport in Burlington, Vermont closed Friday for the first time in 20 years. Inter-city buses as well as those within metro Montreal faced long delays.

The storm was far reaching, spreading heavy snow from Texas to Newfoundland. On the warm side of the system, severe weather, tornadoes and flooding stretched from Louisiana to Pennsylvania.

Friday, February 07, 2020

Major snowstorm today for Montreal and southern Quebec

Heavy snow across eastern Ontario and southern Quebec will make travel very difficult today. Since early Thursday, 14cm has fallen at Trudeau Airport, with another 20-30cm possible today. (ValleyWeather Photo)
Winter Storm Warning in effect for metro Montreal.

Light snow is falling early Friday morning across the region. The snow has been mixed at times with freezing drizzle overnight, but that will end soon, if it has not already. Radar is showing very heavy snow to our south and west, with rates of 1-2cm per hour expected for Montreal this morning into early afternoon. As of 5am Friday, Montreal had already received 14cm of fresh snow.

Rapidly strengthening low pressure will move from Virginia across southern New England today and into Atlantic Canada tonight. A swath of heavy snow is expected to develop over the St. Lawrence Valley early Friday morning, and persist into the late afternoon. Near blizzard conditions are possible across southern Quebec as increasing northeast winds up to 60km/h develop today. The combination of heavy snow and blowing snow will make travel difficult today across all our regions. For that reason, most major school boards in metro Montreal and across southern Quebec, have cancelled classes for the day. Some flight cancellations have been reported at Trudeau Airport, so check you flight status before heading out to the airport.

A major snowstorm will impact the St. Lawrence Valley today as well as southern Quebec, New England, and Atlantic Canada. (AccuWeather.com)
The snow will taper off to flurries after midnight tonight, with total storm accumulations of 30 to 50cm expected. The high temperature of -5C has been reached already, with temperatures steady or falling today to an overnight low of -15C, with windchill readings in the -20s.

Wednesday, February 05, 2020

Extended winter storm for southern Quebec

Deepening low pressure is forecast to move across New England late Thursday and Friday, with 15 to 25cm of snow possible across southern Quebec. (AccuWeather.com)
Special Weather Statement in effect for Montreal.
Winter Storm Watch posted for Sherbrooke and the Townships.
Winter Storm Warning in effect for northern New York and Vermont.

Much colder air settled across the St. Lawrence Valley on Thursday after several days of above normal temperatures. The high on Thursday was -2C here on L'Ile Perrot, reached at midnight. The mercury has been falling all day to our current temperature of -9.6C. Temperatures should level off  by midnight as clouds thicken up in advance of our next winter storm.

Overnight an elongated warm front will lift northward towards southern Ontario and Quebec. Precipitation should begin overspreading the region by daybreak from the US border into Montreal. Snow will be steady during the morning hours with 5 to 10cm expected by late afternoon in Montreal. The snow will likely impact both the morning and evening commute in the region. Spotty freezing rain may mix in along the US border, but it should be light.

Strengthening low pressure will move from the southern US into New England on Friday with additional snowfall expected. Montreal will get a brief break in precipitation Thursday evening, before more snow, heavy at times arrives overnight into Friday morning. The second batch of snow will be intense at times, with an additional 10-15cm possible for Montreal. Storm totals may exceed 30cm over the Eastern Townships, and 40cm over northern New York and Vermont. Lesser amounts of 10-20cm are expected across eastern Ontario.

As the low pressure deepens and moves northeast into Atlantic Canada, wind speeds will increase across southern Quebec, up to 50km/h at times. Gusty winds will persist into Friday, with areas of blowing snow possible. Temperatures throughout this storm will remain below freezing in Montreal. The special weather statement currently in effect for Montreal may be upgraded to a weather warning by Thursday morning.