Category 4 Hurricane Ida makes landfall in Louisiana with 240 km/h winds

Satellite image taken at landfall of powerful hurricane Ida, 12:55pm Sunday near Port Fourchon, Louisiana. (NOAA/NWS)

UPDATE 12:55 PM: Landfall of powerful category 4 Hurricane Ida at Port Fourchon, Louisiana with 150mph winds gusting to 165mph.

As expected Ida has rapidly strengthened overnight, reaching category 4 status over the last few hours. As of the 7AM advisory, Ida had 150mph (241km/h) winds and was moving northwest at 15 mph (24km/h). The storm continues to deepen over very warm ocean waters. Landfall is expected close to Grand Isle, Louisiana by late afternoon. The Hurricane Hunter aircraft have been entering the storm non-stop over the last few hours, relaying back vital information to forecasters at the National Hurricane Center.

Already this morning seas are building and surge is starting to impact coastal communities from Alabama to east Texas. Strong rain bands are already pivoting into the region, accompanied by torrential rain, gusty winds and isolated tornadoes. Thousands have fled inland, but the rapid arrival of the storm has meant many have remained sheltered in place. This is the first major test for the billion dollar levee system protecting New Orleans. The entire system was overhauled after the catastrophic failure and loss of live after Katrina on this date in 2005.

Ida is expected to generate a storm surge of up to 15 feet and over 20 inches (500mm) of rain. The storm will continue to strengthen until landfall. This is on ongoing story and I will provide additional updates today.

Dangerous Hurricane Ida heading for Gulf Coast

A NOAA image of developing hurricane Ida southeast of the US Gulf Coast early Saturday. Ida is expected to become a major category 4 hurricane before arriving along the Louisiana coast late Sunday evening. Preparations are being rushed to completion today. (NOAA)

Hurricane Ida continues to strengthen in the southeast Gulf of Mexico early Saturday morning, forecast to become a major storm before reaching the Louisiana coast late Sunday afternoon. Ida will arrive 16 years to the date of infamous hurricane Katrina, now the benchmark for deadly hurricanes.

At 4am Saturday morning, Ida was located 825km southeast of New Orleans, moving northwest at 26km/h. Peak winds were at 130km/h (80mph), with Ida forecast to undergo rapid intensification on Saturday. Conditions are ideal for this strengthening, with extremely warm seas-surface temperatures as well a little wind shear, which can tear apart a storm.

Overnight, Ida forced evacuations along the western Cuba coast as the storm rapidly moved across the region with strong winds and torrential rains. The rain also spread across Jamaica and the The Cayman Islands.

The projected path of hurricane Ida over the next few days. (NHC)

Hurricane warnings are in effect for the central Gulf coast, with the impact zone stretching from east Texas to the Florida panhandle. The focus will be on central Louisiana near the barrier island of Grand Isle as well as the extremely vulnerable metro New Orleans. It was Katrina in 2005 that destroyed the levee system in New Orleans, inundating the city and killing thousands of residents.  

Evacuations are underway, with Ida expected to be near Category 4 status when the storm arrives on Sunday. Winds are expected to be in the 225km/h (140mph) range at landfall, along with a 4m (15 foot) storm surge. Rainfall will be epic along the track, with up to 500mm (20 inches) possible. 

While wind is often the focus of these powerful storms, the surge is what causes the most death and destruction. Storm surge is a wall of water pushed inland ahead of the center of the storm. Ida will have an impressive storm surge of between 10 and 15 feet. The surge ahead of Hurricane Katrina in 2005 was 25 feet along the Mississippi coast.

As I write this Saturday morning, evacuations are expanding rapidly across the Gulf coast as thousands flee inland. Once inland, Ida will weaken rapidly while meandering across the lower Mississippi Valley before moving off the middle Atlantic coast. Ida will become a big rainmaker with inland fresh water flooding expected. No weather from Ida is forecast at this time across southern Ontario or Quebec.

Henri making landfall in southern New England Sunday

Heavy rain out in front of hurricane Henri, produced flash flooding in New York City on Saturday night. (New York Post)

Henri was downgraded to a tropical storm as of 7am with 70mph winds.

Hurricane Henri is already leaving his mark across southern New England, New York and New Jersey as heavy bands of rain in front of the storm are producing flash flooding. A record-setting 100mm of rain fell Saturday night at Central Park in NYC. The heavy rain has resulted in dangerous flash flooding, with numerous water rescues occurring overnight.

Early this morning, Henri was located 125km southeast of Montauk, Long Island, with 120km/h winds. The storm was moving north at 30km/h. Widespread watches and warnings remain in effect across the northeastern US. Winds and seas will continue to build along the coastal regions through the morning hours Sunday.

Long Island National Weather Service radar early Sunday morning showing the center of Henri southeast of Montauk Point.

Henri is forecast to make landfall either on eastern Long Island or Rhode Island, then move slowly inland towards southern New Hampshire. The storm is forecast to weaken while moving off to the northeast on Monday.

The only impact expected across southern Quebec will be clouds thickening form the southeast along with perhaps a stray shower or thunderstorm this afternoon and overnight. Our region will remain under the influence of a tropical air mass, with very humid conditions through Monday. Henri will produce rain and gusty winds across Atlantic Canada late Monday and Tuesday.

Heat warning in effect for Montreal and the entire region

The high of 32.1C (90F) at Trudeau Airport Friday, missed the 1970 record by one tenth of a degree. We have a shot at beating both record highs this weekend. Humidex values reached 40C during the late afternoon hours, and will likely do so again on Saturday. A heat warning is in effect for the St. Lawrence Valley.

Heat Warning in effect for the St. Lawrence Valley, southern Quebec, eastern Ontario and the Champlain Valley of New York and Vermont. Stay hydrated, wear light clothing and avoid strenuous outdoor activities. Seek air conditioning if possible.

Hot and humid air has settled over southern Quebec and Ontario for the weekend, fueled by strong high pressure located off the Atlantic coast. This Bermuda high is pumping tropical air northward into our region. Adding to the moist, steamy air mass is the northward track of tropical storm Henri.

Saturday will be hazy and hot in Montreal with a high of 33C (91F) forecast and humidex/heat index values into the low 40s. Sunday will be similar, with a high of 32C (90F), but with some high clouds streaming northward form Henri, as the storm makes landfall on Long Island, New York and moves into southern New England. There is a risk of perhaps a few showers along the US border late Sunday as well as a wind shift to the northeast in the afternoon. At this time little other impacts are expected in Quebec, with Henri forecast to move northeast after landfall, well south of Montreal.

In terms of high temperatures for Montreal this weekend, we have a chance at exceeding the long-standing record highs for both Saturday and Sunday. The record high for both days was established in 1955, 32.8C Saturday and 30.6C Sunday.

Tropical Storm Henri

Henri was located 315km southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina at 5am Saturday morning, with 110km/h winds. Henri is expected to strengthen into a hurricane on Saturday, while maintaining a northward track. Widespread watches and warnings have been posted for the northeastern US and southern New England including metropolitan New York City. Rainfall of up to 250mm, along with a storm surge of 3 to 5 feet is expected. The storm is expected to make landfall on central Long Island during Sunday afternoon. The center will then move inland across far western Massachusetts before moving northeast into Maine. The path of Henri will have to be watched closely to see what impacts if any we can expect locally. It appeared earlier in the week, that Henri was moving out to sea. Since then, each successive forecast model run has moved the storm closer and closer to an expected US landfall close to New York City.

Hurricane watch raised for southern New England

The official National Hurricane Centre forecast map of the projected path of tropical storm, soon-to-be hurricane Henri. Henri was located southeast of the Carolina coast on Friday morning, expected to intensify and turn towards the north over the next 24 hours. A hurricane watch has been raised for the southern New England coast. (NHC)

Tropical storm Henri, located 1255km south, southwest of Nantucket, Massachusetts early Friday morning, is forecast to become a hurricane over the nest 24 hours. The storm is currently moving west, northwest at 15km/h, and expected to turn towards the north on Friday around a ridge of high pressure located over Atlantic Canada. Henri will then take aim at southern New England and Atlantic Canada.

It has been 30 years since a hurricane made landfall in coastal New England. On August 19, 1991, hurricane Bob raced into southern New England resulting in several fatalities and billions of dollars in damage. Most of the weather from Bob remained southeast of Montreal, and this should also be the case with Henri on Sunday. Perhaps some gusty northeast winds and a few showers may make into extreme southern Quebec.

The National Hurricane Centre has issued a hurricane watch for portions of Long Island, New York, coastal Connecticut, Rhode Island and Massachusetts. Henri is expected to arrive late Sunday afternoon, but heavy surf and gusty winds will arrive well ahead of the center. At this time, Henri is expected to produce a storm surge of 2 to 5 feet over coastal New England and Long Island, with rainfall of up to 8 inches (200mm) possible. Coastal and fresh water flooding is likely. Wind gusts over 90km/h will likely spread well inland into southern New Hampshire and Vermont.

While strengthening is expected over the next 24 hours, a slow weakening will begin thereafter as Henri encounters much colder water in New England. As the storm approaches the coast on Sunday, it will likely be a minimal hurricane or perhaps even a strong tropical storm. Nevertheless, severe weather impacts are expected. Swells from Henri will begin reaching the coast over the next 24 hours, this includes portions of New Brunswick and Nova Scotia. The swells will produce dangerous rip currents from the Carolinas to Nova Scotia.

The storm will then impact Atlantic Canada and especially Nova Scotia on Monday, with heavy rainfall and gusty winds expected. The Canadian Hurricane Centre will release an update at 9am Friday morning.

It has been a busy week in the tropics, with three named systems. Fred is currently a depression over New Hampshire after producing deadly flooding along the storms path, especially in North Carolina. Hurricane Grace weakened to a tropical storm after moving across the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday. Grace is expected to regain hurricane strength in the Gulf of Mexico today before hitting mainland Mexico in the wee hours Saturday morning.

Temperatures on the rise again across southern Quebec

A vehicle drives along a partially flooded coastal road Monday at Alligator Point, Florida. Tropical Storm Fred made landfall over the region Monday afternoon, with storm surge and fresh water flooding as well as isolated tornadoes. The storm was weakening south of Atlanta on Tuesday afternoon. Heavy rain is still forecast from the southeastern US into New York State. (Tori Lynn Schneider/Tallahassee Democrat)

While we may be past the peak of the summer season, the warm weather is not showing any signs of leaving just yet. After a less humid, pleasant weekend, temperatures and humidity are on the rise again. High pressure anchored off the southeast US coast is expected to pump warm, moist air northward over the next week or so. Helping in the northward trajectory of the tropical airmass, will be the remains of Fred.

Tropical Storm Fred moved inland along the Florida Gulf Coast near Cape San Blas late Monday afternoon. The storm dumped copious amounts of rain over portions of the Florida panhandle and southern Georgia, along with isolated tornadoes. Widespread flood watches and warnings are currently in effect from Georgia to New York state. As of Tuesday afternoon, Fred has been downgraded to a depression with 45km/h winds. The broad center was located 48km southwest of Atlanta. 

As this time it appears the bulk of the rainfall will remain south of Montreal. What we can expect is an increase in heat and humidity along with some scattered showers or thunderstorms through the weekend. High temperatures will once again approach 30C (86F), with overnight lows in the high teens and low 20s.

Despite all the humid weather we have experienced this August, most of the rain has avoided the metro region. To date, Montreal has received only 17.8mm of rain at Trudeau Airport on only four days in August. Hopefully some of the upcoming tropical moisture will find its way into our lakes and streams which are running exceptionally low.

The rain from Tropical Storm Fred will remain south of Montreal through Wednesday. (NOAA)

Tropical Storm Grace

Two more tropical systems have developed this week, Grace and Henri. Grace was located 40 km east of Montego Bay, Jamaica midday Tuesday. The storm dumped heavy rain across earthquake ravaged Haiti over the last 24 hours, with as much as 250mm falling. Flash flooding and landslides are possible across Haiti and the Dominican Republic as well as portions of southern Cuba. 

Grace is expected to intensify and become a hurricane within the next 24 hours as the center moves just south of The Caymen Islands. The storm will then take aim at the popular beach and resorts towns of the Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico. 

Meanwhile Henri was located 215km south, southeast of Bermuda, with 95km/h winds, and no threat to land at this time.

Cooler - less humid weather in Montreal this weekend

Thursday was another hot and sticky day in Montreal. Temperatures soared close to 30C early in the morning and then remained fairly steady as cloud cover developed. Cooler, less humid air will arrive behind a cold front on Saturday.
(Valley Weather Photo)

Heat warning in effect for southern Quebec

Friday will be the last day of our current heatwave. High temperatures since Monday have been between 30 and 32C (86 to 90F), with humidex values either side of 40C, in short it has been hot and humid. This was by far our warmest stretch of weather this summer. Fridays anticipated high of 32C will bring the total number of days over 30C in Montreal to 15. The record high for Friday is 33.3C set in 1947.

A cold front will arrive late this evening or overnight, along with scattered showers and thunderstorms. As was the case most days this week, the threat will be fairly low for severe weather, the storms will be hit and miss. There is still a chance some locations may receive heavy rain and gusty winds. On Saturday, high pressure will build into southern Quebec, along with clearing skies, much lower humidity and seasonal high temperatures around 25C (77F). The overnight period will be much more pleasant for sleeping, with lows near 15C (59F).

Slightly warmer, more humid weather will return for next week, with an increasing chance for precipitation.

Tropical Storm Fred

The tropics have been fairly quiet most of August so far, but there are signs that is about to change. Early Friday morning, tropical depression Fred was located 595 km southeast of Key West, Florida, with 55km/h winds. Fred is expected to strengthen today and reach tropical storm status. Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued for the Florida Keys and Florida Bay. The warnings will likely be extended along the west coast of Florida. Fred is following a path similar to that of Elsa earlier this summer, moving WNW at 16km/h, and forecast to make landfall in the Florida panhandle by late Sunday. Fred will be primarily a rain maker, with the threat for flooding, especially across northern Florida. 

Heat warning for southern Quebec and eastern Ontario

By the water will be the place to be this week as it was on Sunday along the St. Lawrence River near Lancaster, Ontario. (ValleyWeather Photo)

Heat Warning in posted for metro Montreal

A warm front is lifting north of the St. Lawrence Valley early Monday morning, accompanied by scattered showers and a rumble or two of thunder. Once the front clears the region, a very steamy, tropical airmass will be present with us through Friday. 

For that reason, Environment Canada has issued a heat warning for a large portion of southern Quebec and eastern Ontario. Hazy, hot and even smoky conditions are possible, along with an afternoon risk of showers or thunderstorms. High temperatures will rise into the low 30s, with humidex values approaching 40C. Overnight lows will be near 21C (70F). Cooler, less humid air arrives by next weekend.

Until then exercise caution during the daytime hours especially. The risk is greatest for young and old, those with chronic illnesses and those working outdoors. Drink plenty of water and seek out air conditioned spots during the hot afternoons if at all possible. Never leave your pets or anybody for that matter unattended in a vehicle for any period of time in these extreme temperatures.

Heat warnings are posted when the combination of elevated temperatures and humidity push the humidex values over 40C (104F).  Temperatures this high can pose an elevated risk of heat stroke or heat exhaustion. Stay cool!

Steamy smoky forecast for Montreal

Another smoky sky over Montreal on Friday morning. Smoke from Ontario and Manitoba fires will make for poor air quality through Saturday. A smog warning has been posted for Montreal. The AQI (Air Quality Index) for Montreal at 6am Friday morning ranged from 85 to 113 across the island. This is at a level considered unhealthy for sensitive groups. (Valley Weather Photo)

Smog Warning in effect for metro Montreal. Expect poor air quality today as a result of smoke from Ontario and Manitoba wildfires. Conditions should improve on Saturday.

After a rather cool and at times dismal looking July, the warmest weather of the summer thus far is about to descend on Montreal. Most of July was dominated by a northwest flow aloft in the atmosphere. The result was only one 30C high temperature in Montreal, and only 6 such days since June 1st. We will likely add to that total over the next week or so as warm, humid air is pushed northward along the eastern seaboard into southern Quebec.

We will also have to deal with some smoke from western wildfires. It what has become the summer of the wildfire, we have already had several episodes of dense smoke and will likely have several more before August ends. Hundreds of fires are burning across North America, with the main concentration from B.C. into northern Manitoba and northwest Ontario. That smoke will drift over southern Quebec over the next 24 hours, prompting a smog warning for Montreal and portions of western Quebec and northeast Ontario. Southerly winds should help push the smoke out of our region on Saturday.

The airmass will become rather humid, with the chance for showers and thunderstorms each afternoon from Saturday well into next week. The high temperature in Montreal on Thursday was just shy of 30C (86F). The current forecast calls for temperatures in the high 20s and low 30s through next week. Overnight lows will be very mild, close to 20C (68F) in the city, slightly cooler across the off-island suburbs. This will be the warmest stretch of summer 2021 so far.

Warmer weather on the horizon for Montreal

A waterspout over Lake Huron. The constant battle of airmasses across the Great Lakes, Ontario and Quebec, has resulted in an increase in tornadoes and severe weather across both provinces this summer. To date, 26 tornadoes have been confirmed in Ontario, and 9 in Quebec. (ClickOnDetroit.com)

July is sadly over. Typically the warmest month of the year for Montreal, this July failed on many levels. Most of Canada has been torrid this summer, with thousands of temperature records falling, especially across western Canada. Such was not the case across eastern Ontario and western Quebec, as a stubborn northwest flow of air prevailed. Numerous strong thunderstorms, tornadoes and waterspouts have also occurred in Ontario and Quebec this summer as a result of the frequent cold fronts and constant battle of airmasses. Meanwhile it has not rained in Vancouver and parts of British Columbia in over a month. 

July ended with an average temperature of 20.7C (69F), below the normal of 21.2C and well below last July when we managed 24.3C (76F) at Trudeau Airport. Montreal had only one day over 30C on July 15, when the mercury reached 30.2C. In contrast, that number was 14 days in July 2020, including the top temperature of 36.1C (97F). Only 9 days this month managed to break the 27C (80F) mark compared to 25 of the 31 days in 2020. Despite the many cloudy, cool days, most of the rain fell south and west of Montreal, with a monthly total of 60.4mm, most of that falling on three days.

So what does all this mean for August? The trend right now is for temperatures to recover slightly. That will begin this week as the Bermuda high moves slightly west towards the US east coast and begins pumping warm and humid air northward. A frontal boundary will be responsible for showers and thunderstorms Sunday, especially south and west of Montreal. Temperatures will again be rather cool for the middle of the summer, with highs reaching close to 20C. Southern Quebec should have clearing skies on Monday, with a decent week ahead. Mainly dry, fair conditions are expected, with highs reaching through the upper 20s to near 30C in Montreal by next weekend.