Friday, November 30, 2012

Driest November on record for Montreal

Snow totals from the last 24 hours from upstate New York and Vermont show how the snow avoided the border region southwest of Montreal and the St. Lawrence Valley east of Cornwall. (double click for a better view) (Burlington NWS Office)
Just is case you have not figured it out, it has been very dry. As a matter of fact Montreal and the entire region has been well below normal for this time of year with the city about to post its driest November since weather record keeping began  I looked over the last 141 years of data for November, the first portion from 1871 to 1941 at McGill University downtown with the balance at Trudeau Airport in Dorval. What I found was that our paltry 13.8mm of precipitation for this past month will shatter any previous records. The previous winner was November 1991 with 31.5mm. The lack of precipitation it just a continuation of the year we have had, remember the water restrictions? Other notable November's over the years included 305.8mm in 1927 and November 2002 when the city had a record 62.8cm of snow. Compare that to this November where we have only had 2cm of snow, that falling in the last 48 hours.

Arctic front a bust
Speaking of snow, the front yesterday was a bust for most of our region. There was very little moisture out ahead of the arctic front and only light snow developed in Montreal and tapered off quickly with no squalls to speak of. There was some heavier snow around with over 5cm in portions of Ontario into the St. Lawrence Valley around Prescott, with over 10cm in the mountains of Vermont. The light snow has been replaced by bitter cold this morning with temperatures as cold as -14C here in Montreal and a frigid -20C (-2F) in Sherbrooke as of 7am. Wind chill values are in the -18 to -25C range, so it is very cold for this time of year. The good news is it will be short lived. Look for increasing clouds today and cold highs near -8C. Temperatures will continue to warm tonight and into the weekend with highs Saturday near 0C and Sunday all the way up to 6C. Some very light freezing drizzle is possible on Saturday with showers by Sunday. Cooler weather will return by the middle of next week, but there is still no signs of any major precipitation events into the first week of December.

Thursday, November 29, 2012

Brief period of heavy snow for Montreal - eastern Ontario

The first of two cold fronts crossed the region late Wednesday with a period of very light snow in Montreal with 1 to 2cm. It remains cloudy this morning and cold with current temperatures of -6C on L'Ile Perrot and -5C at Trudeau Airport. Temperatures will warm to -1C today in advance of a potent cold front that will enter the region by 3pm. Look for snow ahead of the front across eastern Ontario and southern Quebec beginning by the noon hour and tapering off this evening. There could be a brief period of heavy snow and strong winds with the arctic front as it passes Montreal by 4pm. Otherwise look for light snow with accumulations of 2 to 5cm in the city and perhaps as much as 10cm in the mountains of the Townships, Vermont and New York. Again as I said yesterday, this will not be a storm, but it is the first snow events of the year so travel could be affected. Visibility in the heaviest of squalls may be reduced to near zero in falling and blowing snow. Skies will clear by midnight and it will be very cold with lows between -12C in metro areas and -18C in the mountains north and south of Montreal. Friday will be sunny and cold with highs near -8C. We are still looking at milder air by Sunday but with clouds and showers.

Wednesday, November 28, 2012

Snow for Montreal and eastern Ontario

Two arctic cold fronts are set to bring most of southern Quebec and eastern Ontario our first measurable snow this evening and again on Thursday afternoon. In the meantime clouds and chilly weather will prevail to start the day today with temperatures at -4C to start and rising to around 0C. The first front will cross Montreal this evening with snow showers and a few heavier squalls. Amounts of snow will be light, but up to 2cm is possible. Skies will clear briefly by morning with temperatures chilly once again dropping to -10C.

A more potent arctic boundary is forecast to cross the St. Lawrence Valley late in the day Thursday with heavier flurries and perhaps a snow squall or two. Amounts with this front could be up to 5cm locally with strong northwest winds developing between 30- 50km/h and dropping temperatures. Be advised of this if you are out on the road either afternoon as both drivers and road crews have yet to adjust to winter driving routines. We already witnessed on Monday morning, with that dusting of snow in Vermont, just how quickly travel can turn deadly at this time of year. As I say every time it snows slow down. Once the front clears the region the coldest air of the season so far will settle south into Montreal with highs struggling to reach -5C on Friday and lows as cold as -13C in the city and perhaps our first -18C (0F) well off island to the north and in the Townships.

Much warmer weather is expected on the weekend as a southwest flow develops ahead of low pressure moving north and west of the region. Temperatures could be as high as 10C (50F) by early next week. I hope we are not in for another difficult roller coaster winter, but it is certainly going to start that way.

Tuesday, November 27, 2012

A little snow this week

Traffic sits still on Interstate 89 in Vermont on Monday morning after light snow and ice caused a  fatal accident closing the road for over 1 hour. (Ryan Mercer - Burlington Free Press)
It was cold overnight here in Montreal before the clouds moved in and slowed the temperature decline. We managed -10C here on L'Ile Perrot at around 1am, the coldest so far this season. With the month drawing to a close and only a trace of snow and a paltry 12.4mm (about one half inch) of precipitation at Trudeau Airport, it appears we are on our way to one of the driest November's on record. The end of the month will feature a zonal flow which typically brings weaker systems across our area every other day, so no large amounts of precipitation are forecast. Such was the case yesterday morning as a very weak band of snow moved south of Montreal, just clipping us here on L'Ile Perrot and the South Shore, and moving into the Champlain Valley and Vermont. The snow arrived in time for the morning commute in Vermont and caught motorists and road crews off guard. The result was several accidents that closed Interstate 89 for up to one hour.

This morning there are just a few flurries in the area as moisture is fairly limited. Even the lake effect snow bands are weakening off both lakes Ontario and Erie. Yesterday Wiarton, Ontario picked up 24cm of snow off Georgian Bay. Skies will eventually clear out today before the arrival of the next cold front late Wednesday. This will produce another shot of snow showers and much colder air into Thursday. That front will move back north as a warm front over the weekend with temperatures expected to rise to well above normal values into Sunday and Monday. At this time no major storms are in our future. Today will remain chilly reaching -1C (30F), but by Sunday highs will be well above freezing between plus 5 and 7C (40-45F).

Monday, November 26, 2012

First snow of season on L'Ile Perrot - Montreal

That is it! You are looking at all our snowfall so far for the month of November here on L'Ile Perrot. (ValleyWX)
Not much of a headline event this morning but it has snowed nonetheless. It was a wee bit of a surprise to wake and see the gourd white here at home on L'Ile Perrot. A weak cold front moved across the area overnight with just enough lift to produce an area of light snow and flurries. Areas from eastern Ontario and the Ottawa Valley, across extreme southwestern Quebec, and the west end of Montreal had anywhere from a dusting up to 1cm of snow. It is a cold morning with a light wind and temperatures around -5C. As I said, not much, but in a month with only 12mm of precipitation, this is the best we can do. Cold air will remain in place this week with temperatures staying below freezing for Montreal, expect lows in the -6 to 10C range and highs from 0 to -2C. There will be a chance of a little light snow late Tuesday and Wednesday with another cold front passage with perhaps a dusting expected  Otherwise no major storms are on the horizon as we end what has been a very unusual November  Moving into the first weekend of December it looks like mild air and some rain may arrive here in the east by the weekend. Mild Pacific air will then dominate most of southern Canada and the US into the first week of December.

Friday, November 23, 2012

Much colder weather on the way for Montreal

After 60F weather just hours earlier, shoppers are forced to brave the cold and snow in Minnesota last night as they wait for a Target to open. It is Black Friday today, the biggest shopping day of the year for US retailers. (AP Photo).
Enjoy today, this will be the last really mild day for some time as a strong cold front is about to move across Ontario and Quebec. Montreal's temperature was a balmy 12.4C on Thursday, well above normal for the date. Today will be mild as well with an increasing south wind ahead of the front. Temperatures will rise to 11C before clouds begin to increase late in the afternoon. Those clouds will bring showers with temperatures dropping rapidly overnight to below freezing by Saturday morning. Any showers will switch over to flurries late overnight with a dusting of snow possible especially in the hills north and south of Montreal.

Yesterday Minneapolis, Minnesota set a new record high of 60F, but by the end of the day it was snowing, windy and only 30F. Today, Toronto is at 11C (52F) this morning, but by the end of the day they will drop to 2C (36F). The front will also bring gusty northwest winds across the entire region, up to 50km/h on Saturday. Those winds will produce windchill values well below freezing. The wind will also produce lake effect snow bands off the Great Lakes. The snow will affect the normal regions of Central Ontario as well as western New York. Some locations may see over 10cm of snow by Saturday night.

Looking ahead into next week, there is plenty of uncertainty in the forecast with a storm system coming out of the US southwest. Different computer models are handling the storm with a path anywhere from southern Quebec and Ontario as far south as Tennessee. If the system stays to our south it will be cold enough for snow. We will just have to wait and see over the weekend. The time frame for accumulating snow would be late Tuesday in Wednesday for Montreal if it materializes.

Thursday, November 22, 2012

Winter - west & warmer - east

Above and below are pictures taken by my good friend and Editor of the Gravelbourg Tribune, Paul Bosivert. They show Main Street in Gravelbourg, Saskatchewan after the last big snowstorm on November 9 & 10. As mentioned below the area has had its share of cold and snow this November in stark contrast to us here in the east.
The trend of mild weather here in Quebec this fall will continue at least for a few more days as strong high pressure remains in control of our weather here in Montreal. The nights have been cool with frost while the days have been very mild with abundant sunshine. Look for the area of high pressure to begin lifting to the northeast as a cold front approaches Quebec and Ontario late on Friday. Rain will accompany the front along with some gusty winds. Temperatures will drop behind the front to more seasonable values for the weekend. Daytime highs of nearly 10C (50F) or warmer today and Friday will drop down to 0C (32F) on Saturday and below freezing at -2C (29F) for Sunday. Some flurries are possible but no major snow event is in our immediate future.

Big snowbanks line Main Street in Gravelbourg, SK with the famous Cathedral in view at the end of the street.
For snow and cold, you have to head out to Saskatchewan and Alberta where it feels like mid winter. Temperatures this morning are a frigid -14C in Calgary and -11C in Regina. Yesterday snow fell across the region with a band of freezing rain in advance of the front. It was a messy, cold day across the southern Prairies. Numerous collisions with injuries were reported south of the Trans Canada Highway with the RCMP in Saskatchewan telling motorists to stay off the roads for a time on Wednesday.

Wednesday, November 21, 2012

Weather changes on the horizon

A powerful storm that has been slamming Washington State and B.C. will begin to move east, finally nudging the high pressure that has been giving us record sunshine off to our east. AP Photo Don Ryan
We have been enjoying a spectacular November with abundant sunshine and seasonable temperatures here in southern Quebec and eastern Ontario. As of this morning only 8.8mm of precipitation has been recorded at Trudeau Airport in Montreal. This is roughly 10% of normal with rainfall on only 5 days this month. As I have mentioned already, November is typically the dullest month of the year.

We are dealing with some fog again this morning that is actually causing some delays and cancellations at some US airports on this busy travel day. The intense weather remains along both coasts but changes are in the air. This morning that pesky storm that brought heavy snow, rain and strong winds the the Pacific Northwest, is beginning to rise up and over the Rockies. That storm has produced major flooding, toppled trees and cut power to over 20,000 homes in Washington and Oregon. A push of arctic air will greet the front producing snow and freezing rain in southern Alberta and Saskatchewan. Up to 20cm of snow is possible for Calgary with increasing winds and dropping temperatures over the next 24 hours. In contrast ahead of the cold front Montreal and most of Quebec and Ontario will remain mild with highs from 6 to 10C.

We are in for a couple of more days of sunshine before that cold front arrives in Quebec by late Saturday. The trend into the weekend will be for much colder temperatures with highs at or below freezing into early next week. There will also be a chance for some light snow or flurries by Monday. Next week looks much cooler with perhaps some measurable snow by late in the week.

Tuesday, November 20, 2012

Mild November weather

It is another cold morning in Montreal, down to -4C here on L'Ile Perrot. We have fog across the St. Lawrence Valley, and that has put a little glaze on trees and some bridges so there are a few slick spots out there. Otherwise the forecast continues to look good for November with record sunshine continuing. We will have more clouds than sun today as a weak trough slides east from the Great Lakes. High pressure will reestablish itself tonight with sunshine expected Wednesday through Friday. Temperatures will be in the 6 to 10C (43-50F) range for highs, well above normal. Nights will remain chilly with good radiational cooling and lows down to -4C. A strong cold front is set to bring an end to this weather by Saturday with showers and flurries an dropping temperatures. The high temperature by Monday won't make it above freezing.

Monday, November 19, 2012

More sunshine for Montreal

Our rather benign weather pattern continues over southern Quebec and eastern Ontario with a large area of high pressure locked in place and in control. The result has been a period of sunshine and dry weather that may begin to establish some records. We are not talking warm records here but rather hours of sunshine and lack of precipitation for any November. In a normal November around 71.2mm of precipitation occurs, so far in 2012 we have had only 8.8mm. This amounts to just a splash in the rain gauge. The other impressive stat will be hours of sunshine. On average Montreal records only 86 hours of sunshine for the month. November is typically the cloudiest month of the entire year. While I have not tabulated the stats, I can tell you we have had a full week of sunshine with another scheduled. That right there should be enough to surpass the normal. Temperatures have been cold at night and near normal for highs. That is pretty much what you would expect at this time of year with the current setup. Air quality has been poor with lots of smog and smoke from heating trapped at the lower levels of the atmosphere.

Sunshine will prevail for the balance of this week with just a few clouds around. Temperatures will warm from 4C today to near 8C by Thursday and Friday. Big changes are in store for the area beginning as early as next weekend. For starters we will see clouds increase with the chance of rain and snow by next Saturday. It will also turn much colder to end November with the coldest air so far this season expected to arrive by the first week of December.

A surreal photo from awesome photographer Don Bowers. This is the Atlantic Ocean invading North Carolina 12 on Hatteras Island at high tide on Sunday. (Don Bowers photo from Facebook/Island Breeze)
Not much weather to speak of across North America, with just storms on both coasts. The one along the southeast coast of the US continues to send high tides and heavy surf into the North Carolina and Virginia coastlines. Local officials are fighting a loosing battle with Highway 12 that follows the Outer Banks. I have traveled this road hundreds of times, and on a normal day the Atlantic is lapping up against the road in places. Since Hurricane Sandy, they have been trying to reopen the road on Hatteras Island with no luck. The road is the only link (other than the ferry) to the mainland for Islanders.

Friday, November 16, 2012

Strong high pressure in control for Montreal

Not much to talk about this weekend as Montreal and southern Quebec as well as Ontario remain under an area of high pressure. This will result in a prolonged, and unusual for November, period of dry and seasonable weather. Temperatures under partly cloudy skies will reach 5C (41F) today. It will be cold tonight dropping to -7C (19F). Saturday will be partly cloudy again and chilly with highs around 0C (32F). The balance of the weekend into the middle of next week looks the same, sunny with high temperatures around 5C and lows around -3C. By the end of next week a cold front may bring a little rain or perhaps a snowflake by Friday otherwise not much else.

Highway 12 remains in poor shape near Mirlo Beach on Hatteras Island, North Carolina. The road was damaged from Sandy, a Nor'Easter and now northeast winds and ocean overwash caused by large high pressure to the north.
That potential storm along the east coast looks like it will remain out over the Atlantic and not impact our area. However high astronomical tides along with a healthy northeast fetch of ocean water and wind (thanks to our high pressure), is bringing coastal flood issue once again to the eastern seaboard from the Carolina's north into New England. The Outer Banks cannot catch a break since Superstorm Sandy brushed the region. North Carolina Department of Transport workers have been trying in vain to reopen Highway 12 that runs the length of the Outer Banks. The highway has been inundated with water and debris on Hatteras Island. They managed to open a route for 4-wheel drive vehicles, but will likely loose that this weekend at each high tide.
Looking ahead to the end of November and into December, there are some indications that it will turn much colder than normal over the east coast and here in southern Quebec. I will follow that potential and update the blog accordingly. In the meantime enjoy the unusually bright and dry November weather and catch up on some of those outdoor jobs. Have great weekend, be safe.

Wednesday, November 14, 2012

A long stretch of fair weather for Quebec/Ontario/NE

A strong area of high pressure centered over the Great Lakes will  provide Montreal, southern Quebec and Ontario an extended period of fair weather. Nights will be cold under clear skies and calm winds with temperatures down around -5C. L'Ile Perrot is sitting at -6C this morning with lots of ice on the cars to scrape. Temperatures will slowly warm under sunny skies and light winds to around 4C. The same pattern will hold across the region through the weekend and into the early portion of next week. Temperatures will remain chilly at night but gradually warm to slightly above normal highs of 5 to 7C (40 to 45F) by next week.

An 80 foot Norway Spruce that survived Sandy is being removed to become the 80th Rockefeller Center Christmas Tree. It was cut from the home of Joseph Balku in Flanders, NJ on Tuesday. AP Photo
Rockefeller Center Tree
Having survived Superstorm Sandy on the property of Joseph Balku in Flanders, New Jersey, the Rockefeller Center Tree was cut down yesterday to be transported to New York City. The tree was donated long before Sandy tore through the region toppling thousands of trees but leaving this one protected. The 80 foot Norway Spruce began the journey to NYC yesterday and will be put up and strung with thousands of lights over the next week or so. The tree will be ready for the 80th Annual lighting at Rockefeller Center, scheduled for November 28. When Balku bought the property in 1973, the tree was 22 feet tall. He said he is proud to donate the tree and be a part of history.

USA Thanksgiving Storm
We have a long stretch of great weather ahead of us with high pressure in place. Looking ahead, the European model is starting to hint of a Nor'Easter developing next week and affecting New England and southern Quebec in time for Thanksgiving Day next Thursday. Stay tuned for more on this as it could involve snow and/or rain and strong winds for some of us.

Tuesday, November 13, 2012

Record highs - and now back to reality

The incredible temperature rise from St Anicet, Quebec near Cornwall yesterday. They reached a high of 24.5C (76F) obliterating the old record of 12.7C set in 2010. They are 4C (39F) at 8am.
That was one potent cold front the swept the province of Ontario and Quebec last night sending temperatures from record highs back to the freezing point in a matter of hours. Montreal started the day Monday at -1C (30F) before soaring to a record high of 18.8C by noon. That smashed the previous record of 15.5 set in 1982. Others cities that broke their 1982 records were Kemptville and Ottawa both reaching 21.1C (70F). Ottawa has flurries and 1C (33F) this morning, how is that for a temperature drop! Other records included 70F at Burlington, Vermont. They also smashed there overnight low record at 58F beating 49F set way back in 1909. Massena/Cornwall reached 75F (24C) beating the record set of 70 set in 1982. Mount Mansfield, Vermont recorded a wind gust to hurricane force of 75mph in advance of the cold front at 11:25pm.

The front roared through Montreal at 1am this morning with a wind gust to 72km/h at Trudeau Airport. The temperature fell from 15C at midnight, just shy of another record high for today, all the way down to 5C this morning. There were even a few flurries in the air on L'Ile Perrot as I was driving to work. We are in for a blustery and cold day with temperatures dropping to around 2 or 3C.

The good news is the balance of the week will be sunny and dry with cool temperatures. Lows will be below freezing at -2 to -5C with highs of 1C to 4C. This is close to normal for November 13.

Monday, November 12, 2012

Record warmth today

Over a dozen record highs were established in Ontario on Sunday including 18.4C (66F) in Toronto breaking the previous record of 17.2 dating all the way back to 1938. As has been the case all year long, Montreal has a shot at yet another record high today. The forecast high for the city is 16C (60F), with the record for today's date being 15.5C set in 1982. It is a frosty start to the morning as we sit at 0C here on L'Ile Perrot. Believe it or not it is 15C already in Toronto, nearly 60F on November 12. That will end quickly this morning as a sharp cold front moves across Ontario. Winds will increase out of the southwest up to 50km/h and back to the northwest behind the front. Cold air is pouring into Ontario with rain changing to flurries behind the front. Temperatures will fall to 7C in Toronto by this afternoon.

How cold is it? Well Regina has -25C this morning, that is how cold. The cold front will move into Quebec tonight with a gusty rain shower or two and perhaps a snowflake by morning. Tuesday will be blustery and colder with highs of only 4C (39F). The balance of the week will be fair and seasonable with cold overnight lows around -4C and highs around 4C right into the weekend as strong high pressure dominates our weather. We could use some moisture, our very dry year continues with only 5.6mm of precipitation recorded at Trudeau Airport so far this month.

Sunday, November 11, 2012

Lest We Forget


Please take time to pay tribute to those who have served our country so bravely over the years. My dad instilled in me at an early age the importance of wearing a poppy. He told me to show respect in some way to all those who have paid the supreme sacrifice to give us this great, free and safe country we call home. Without their efforts this would be a far different Canada today than it is. So please at 11am this Sunday, give a moment of silence to them. I will be heading out to the ceremony in Pointe Claire which starts at 10:45am. There are others ceremonies scattered around the city and province, so find one if you can.

It will be damp and chilly in Montreal for the ceremonies as a warm front tries to lift north of the St Lawrence Valley. The front has produced a cold light rain in Montreal with pockets of freezing rain north and east of the city and across the Ottawa Valley into central Ontario. There was even a line of thunderstorms along the front late last night that affected portions of southern Ontario with a rare November light show. Skies will slowly clear later today in the city, setting the stage for near record warmth on Monday with highs near 16C in Montreal but up to 20C south of the city.

This front is part of the same storm that gave blizzard conditions to Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta Friday and Saturday. The snow continues today in Manitoba with around 20cm so far in Winnipeg and 30cm in Regina. Winds will very slowly ease today but frigid air is in place with. Regina currently is -12C with a wind of 48km/h and a windchill of -23C. Edmonton is -19C. There is still lots of blowing snow along the Trans Canada and travel remains dangerous there.

Friday, November 09, 2012

Saskatchewan blizzard - warmer in Montreal

Heavy snow and blowing snow made travel very dangerous in Alberta on Thursday with numerous accidents reported. This one is near Edmonton. (The Weather Network)
It is another chilly morning in Montreal with a northwest wind and temperatures as cold as -5C around the area (it is -3C here on L'Ile Perrot). There will be some clouds in southern Quebec today mixed with a few sunny breaks and temperatures warming up to around 5C. Saturday will be chilly and cloudy with a high of only 2C. A warm front will move across Quebec and Ontario late Saturday with a few scattered showers, and set the stage for a very warm couple of days with temperatures soaring to around 12C on Sunday and 16C on Monday. Enjoy that as much colder weather and some rain will arrive by next Tuesday. The rain may even end as a little light snow Tuesday night.

Above: Another odd scene from the Sandy zone, power trucks from Texas sit idle in the snow in Norwalk, Connecticut.  (Center Point Energy Photo)

A major snowstorm is occurring across the southern Prairies today with 15-30 cm (6-12 inches) forecast from Calgary east towards Winnipeg. Calgary has already reported 16cm of snow as of early this morning. The visibility has lowered as winds increase up to 60km/h, Swift Current in the last hour had steady snow and 1km visibility. The snow will continue all day making travel very dangerous across the entire region. The heaviest snow will fall south of the Trans-Canada Highway along the border with Montana and North Dakota. The snow will only taper off on Saturday. Temperatures will be cold with the snow and drop rapidly behind the storm down into the -20C range, especially in Saskatchewan. It is a cold -11C in Edmonton this morning and -12C in Calgary.

Thursday, November 08, 2012

Big storms east - west, quiet in Montreal

More misery in NYC - Heavy snow forced out the plows along Queens Blvd in New York on Wednesday night.
For the second year in a row portions of the middle Atlantic and Northeast have seen there first measurable snowfall way before Montreal as well as most of southern Quebec and Ontario. A big nor'easter, called Athena by the US based The Weather Channel (TWC), has been affecting the portion of the coast devastated by Sandy  Snowfall amounts of up to 30cm (1 foot) have been reported across interior Connecticut and New York, along with 10-20cm amounts (4-8 inches) elsewhere including hard hit metro New York. Another 100,000 homes were plunged into the dark from this storm, while 1/2 million remain without power and heat from Sandy. Strong winds up to 60mph and heavy surf resulted in more evacuations along the Jersey Shore. The storm continues to produce strong winds in New England and towards Atlantic Canada this morning but they will abate later today. Streaming clouds from the southeast and cold northeast winds are about the only signs of the storm here in Montreal this morning. High pressure will dominate our area into the first half of the weekend with clearing skies later today as the storm pulls off to the east. Sunshine will prevail Friday and Saturday with warming temperatures. Highs will be around 4C today through Saturday before the mercury jumps to 12C on Sunday.

A surreal scene from the Rockaway section of metro New York City as snow streams past a grounded boat, left there by Hurricane Sandy last week. ( photos)
 Prairie Blizzard
Another potent snowstorm (Brutus, again by TWC) is taking shape in the central Rockies. This storm is forecast to move across Montana and northeast into Manitoba and northwest Ontario. Along and to the north of the path strong winds and heavy snow will produce blizzard conditions across extreme southern Alberta and Saskatchewan. A winter storm warning is in effect for those areas including Gravelbourg and Assiniboia for 15-25cm of snow. Travel will become dangerous later today and Friday in heavy snow and blowing snow. Temperatures will plummet behind the storm with the coldest air of the season moving in and sending lows into the minus 20's on the weekend. The same storm will also affect Montana and North Dakota where blizzard warnings are posted.

Wednesday, November 07, 2012

Cold start - warming trend for Montreal

The current Nor'Easter will impact areas of the Jersey Shore destroyed by Sandy last week. As you can see there is no dune left along large portions of the coast making them vulnerable to tidal flooding.
It is another chilly morning in southern Quebec and across eastern Ontario with temperatures around -5C on average but as cold as -10C in Sherbrooke and -7C in Kemptville, ON. Today will feature more sun than cloud and as a result temperatures should warm up a little into the 3 to 5C range (38-42F). Our first snow of the season will have to wait as that coastal storm takes a path further out in the Atlantic. The western edge of the precipitation will only make it into eastern Vermont, with about 5cm (2 inches) forecast there. Along the coast a soaking rain with a driving wind up to 50mph along with some snow just inland will be the main features with this storm. Not a big storm, but enough to make it miserable for the continuing clean up efforts from Sandy. Power is still out for up to half a million residents one week after Sandy's wrath. So it will be another dark and cold night in portions of New Jersey and metro New York.

Looking ahead the weather will improve over our regions into the first half of the weekend with dry conditions and warmer temperatures. The next threat for precipitation here in Montreal will come early next week in the form of rain. It will remain mild with temperatures swinging to above normal here in the east. With a big swing in the jet stream expected, look for arctic air to plunge into the Prairies with a big storm taking shape over the northern US Rockies. This storm will swing into Manitoba by the weekend with a swath of heavy snow, strong winds and dropping temperatures from southern Alberta and Saskatchewan into Manitoba. Travel across the southern prairies will become very dangerous over the next couple of days.

Tuesday, November 06, 2012

Another Montreal earthquake & no snow just yet

The two big items this morning are the 4.2 earthquake that rattled the Montreal region overnight and the removal of the words storm and snow from our forecast this week.

We had yet another earthquake in the Montreal region early this morning, the 2nd in one month and fourth since the summer. This one was centered about 6km southwest of Hawkesbury, Ontario measuring 4.2 and was felt across the metro Montreal region, but especially in the Vaudreuil/Dorion area. I felt this one as I was already wide awake. It lasted around 15 seconds starting with a low but distinct rumble at 4:06am and lasting at least 15 seconds at my location on L'Ile Perrot. There were no reports of damage or injuries, but lots of creaking from my house, not a pleasant sound at 4 in the morning.

The other news is the potential Nor'Easter that forecasters thought might bring our first snow of the season. It now appears that the low pressure will take a track well offshore, sparing inland areas of western New England, Ontario and Quebec from any inclement weather at all. It will remain clear and chilly with a northeast wind through Thursday, but no snow or rain for our area. With a track further offshore the worst of the weather sadly will affect the same area that was devastated by super storm Sandy. Strong winds and high surf will affect an area from Virginia north to New England beginning late Wednesday. Coastal flood watches as well as high wind watches have already been hoisted for the storm battered coastal areas from New Jersey to Cape Cod.

This morning is the coldest yet this season with temperatures down to -7C in Ottawa and -5C in Montreal. Much colder reading have been observed off island. There is even a little light snow or flurries in places as there was on Monday. The flurries left a white coating on the roofs and cars here on L'Ile Perrot.

Monday, November 05, 2012

First snow for Montreal?

Star 92.9 and Lowell's Moving & Delivery were collecting relief supplies for the Jersey Shore over the weekend at the University Mall in Burlington, Vermont. We offered up diapers and other essentials as did many others, and two trucks were filled. This is part of a large Vermont effort to help the areas impacted by Sandy. The state has also sent 11 troopers and their patrol cars to help with law enforcement in Ocean County, New Jersey as well as utility trucks from Green Mountain Power. (ValleyWX Photos)

It was a chilly and raw weekend as the remains of Sandy finally drifted northeast of our region and back out over the Atlantic. On the back side of the system a cold northwest wind has capped the temperatures just above freezing with windchill values well below that and the occasional sprinkle or flurrie. It is a rude reminder that we are in November, far removed from the record high of last Tuesday. Skies have cleared a little this morning with temperatures responding and well below freezing in most areas. It is -1C here on L'Ile Perrot with -3C in Ottawa. Today looks rather quiet with sun and clouds mixing, but cool highs no better than 3C (38F). It will be cold tonight with lows as cold as -5C in the metro areas and even colder off island. Tuesday will be fair and chilly, the last decent day of the week with highs only at 2C (36F).

Forecasters and computer models are showing a very active weather period about to start from Wednesday into the end of the work week. Low pressure is expected to develop at the surface off the coast of North Carolina by late Wednesday and deepen rapidly as it moves northeast. Let me make it clear, this will not be a Sandy, but a typical Nor'easter. That being said these storms pack a punch and can do damage especially to a weakened power grid and a duneless coastline. Sandy has left the middle Atlantic and New England coast exposed and susceptible to beach erosion, flooding and storm damage once again. With 2 million residents still without power and heat, there is great haste and concern this week.

The storm is expected to impact southern Quebec, eastern Ontario and New England as well. Precipitation in the form of rain and snow will develop late Wednesday and continue into Thursday. It will be quite windy out of the northeast in Montreal, likely over 60km/h. At this time 15-25mm of precipitation is forecast (up to one inch, the most southeast, and the least northwest of Montreal). As always with storms in November, timing the arrival of the precipitation means everything. We may be looking at several centimetres of wet snow or perhaps freezing rain for some of our areas overnight Wednesday. This will become more clear as we get closer to the event. I will update this blog often as well as my Facebook and Twitter accounts.

Thursday, November 01, 2012

Chilly damp weekend in Montreal

The remains of Sandy in the form of an upper level low is very slowly spinning across southern Ontario towards the Quebec border tonight. The result has been a very raw day with temperatures in the mid single digits, currently 6C (43F) in Montreal, far from the record high of earlier this week. A breeze and some drizzle are adding to the miserable weather day. Light rain will continue tonight and into Friday as the low pressure area move across our province. Temperatures will be hanging around the 5 or 6C mark for highs. The weekend will be even colder down around 3 or 4C with scattered rain and perhaps even a snow shower. Next week looks no better with perhaps another storm affecting the region by Wednesday. Stay tuned for more on that with updates over the weekend on the Blog, Facebook and Twitter. Thanks for reading.

I really liked the photo above from the Standard-Freeholder in Cornwall, about Cornwall Electric sending down two employees to help with power restoration across the southern tier of New York state. Five million people remain without power tonight after Sandy ripped across the northeast. It is great to see even a smaller utility offer support to our American friends and neighbors. Hydro Quebec currently has over 150 employees in southern New Hampshire and Vermont. You can read the full story HERE.

Montreal - much cooler with showers

Above & Below: For me  these are two of the most powerful images of the strength of water and the storm surge. Above is a large ship beached on Staten Island, NY. Below the barrier island community of Seaside Heights, NJ was almost destroyed with there famous boardwalk & amusement park swallowed by ocean water.
(AP Photos)
What is left of Sandy continues to slowly spin across Lake Erie and Ontario and into southern Quebec this morning. The system will take until Saturday to completely clear the region. What this means for Montreal is cold and damp weather into the weekend. In reality this is more like November. The onshore flow in the lower St. Lawrence and Charlevoix region of Quebec has resulted in heavy rain over the last few days. Water levels are rising on some rivers with as much as 150mm falling since Tuesday. The rain will continue today with a another 30-60mm possible. Nothing like that is our region with just nuisance showers and drizzle at times. Temperatures will be fairly uniform over the next few days remaining in the 5 to 10C range for highs and lows. By next week even cooler air will settle into the area with the chance of flurries by mid-week. No major storms are on the horizon at this time.

The massive clean up and recovery effort continues in New Jersey and the middle Atlantic. Millions remain without power but it is slowly coming back on. Over 150 Hydro Quebec workers and technicians are now in southern New Hampshire helping out there, and word is they will be as long as they are needed. On that note the death toll from Sandy increased to two in Canada yesterday after a Hydro One worker in Sarnia was electrocuted. In the US the death toll has climbed to over 50 with many of those in metro New York on Staten Island. The storm surge was fierce in that region leaving the area in ruins.

 Things may be slowly returning to a more normal level inland, but the coastal area is a different story, from Long Island to Cape May the area has seen incredible damage. It will take months if not years to recover, and a large portion of the area will never be the same with hundreds of feet of real estate swallowed by the Atlantic Ocean. My thoughts and prayers go out to all the residents and those who are helping them. It is a daunting task especially with winter and Nor'Easter season approaching. I have put up a link to the Red Cross on this page as always if you can help, please do so. This has been by far the worst storm I have seen hit that portion of the US coastline in the 33 years I have been tracking hurricanes.