Wednesday, November 30, 2011

From KATV, snow falling across Arkansas on Tuesday.

A big swirl of low pressure continues to spin its way northeast across Ontario this morning. On the front side of it in the mild air, Montreal sits at 9C with showers, meanwhile Toronto is down to 2C. We had quite an intense period of rain early this morning here on Ile Perrot, and that pushed my 24 hours rain total to 29.7mm. It has been very wet across Ontario and in some cases white. Yesterday 81.2mm of rain fell in Windsor, with 42mm across the GTA and 21.2mm in Ottawa. The rain has since changed to wet snow across portions of Ontario and southwest into Michigan and Indiana where as much as 25cm (10 inches) fell late yesterday and overnight. The snow has left many without power. It has been a bizarre fall with so may regions receiving wet snowstorms just days after having well above normal temperatures. Snow fell as far south as Arkansas and Mississippi yesterday. Many regions of the deep south were colder than Montreal on Tuesday. The cold is air slowly pouring into eastern Ontario and Quebec this morning on gusty west winds. Look for high temperatures to be reached early in the day in the St. Lawrence Valley followed by a slow fall to overnight lows below freezing to -4C. The showers should taper off to a few flurries by late today. A coupe of centimetres of wet snow may accumulate across the Ottawa Valley.

We will have a brief break on Thursday before another area of low pressure brings a chance for rain and wet snow on Friday. The weekend at this time looks cloudy and cool with flurries.

Tuesday, November 29, 2011

Freezing rain north - cold rain south

Low pressure over Kentucky is forecast to move northeast across southern Ontario by late today and eventually east of Quebec by tomorrow. This morning light rain is falling in Montreal with chilly temperatures of 3C. It should warm to 6C today and increase further overnight tonight in the rain and mild southwest winds to about 12C. Rain will increase in intensity and coverage tonight as the main area of low pressure and associated cold front crosses the area. The slow moving storm is producing well above normal temperatures south and east of the center, however on the north and west side it is a different story. Cold air at the surface is allowing for freezing rain in a wide swath from central Ontario across the upper Ottawa Valley and north of Montreal from Pontiac to Quebec City. Warnings are in place for as much as 10-20mm of ice. This will cause serious road conditions and power outages. Keep this in mind if your travels take you north of Montreal or north and west of Ottawa today and tonight.

Further south snow is falling across northern Mississippi, Alabama and Tennessee. Snow will also fall on the backside of the system from Indiana and Illinois into Michigan and parts of Ontario. Up to 15cm (6 inches) of snow may follow the rain. Here in southern Quebec it will be mainly a rain event with up to 25mm (1 inch) possible tonight and Wednesday followed by perhaps a few snowflakes late in the day Wednesday as the temperatures tumbles to the freezing point. The balance of the week looks seasonable but unsettled with a few showers or flurries into the weekend. No big cold or snowstorms are in our future for Montreal at this time.

*** I have posted screen shot of my new weather system ValleyWX above. I installed it in the backyard last night and hopefully will make it available online shortly. I am just checking the equipment for reliability and accuracy at this time. In any event it will help me provide a more localized forecast for the southwestern suburbs of Montreal south to the US border and west to the Ontario border.

Monday, November 28, 2011

Fierce winds in Alberta

Wind damage in downtown Calgary on Sunday (Calgary Herald)

Strong winds swept across southern Alberta and Saskatchewan yesterday bringing record high temperatures to the region but also causing considerable damage. Winds gusted as high as 144km/h at Claresholm, Alberta and 91km/h in Calgary. The winds toppled trees and power lines and tore roofing off structures in downtown Calgary. The wind punched out several windows on high rise buildings spraying glass over the downtown core and forcing firefighters to close most of the central part of Calgary for a time on Sunday. Just two weeks after the record arctic chill, temperatures soared into the teens in parts of Albert and Saskatchewan with nearly a dozen new record highs.

Meanwhile here in the east we had a rather dull, but very mild weekend. This morning Montreal is at 12C with a gusty southwest wind. That temperature is well above the normal high of 3 or 4C for late November. Some wintry weather is on the menu for overnight tonight. First today we are dealing with a cold front this morning that should clear the valley by noon with any rain tapering off. Temperatures will fall today to around 4C this afternoon and down to 0C overnight. Overnight another stronger area of low pressure will lift out of the Gulf states and into southern Ontario. It will also bring another surge of warm air which will override the cold air at the surface and produce a period of freezing rain, especially northwest of the Ottawa Valley in Ontario and across the area well north of Montreal. Spotty freezing rain may occur in Montreal but it will be short lived. This next storm will be around through mid week with quite a bit of precipitation. So far this morning the only warnings in place for this next storm, is a Winter Storm Watch for northeast Ontario (Parry Sound, Algonquin, Haliburton). More warnings for rain and freezing rain may be needed later today or on Tuesday. Temperatures will remain above normal for this time of year with no arctic air in sight. Keep in mind any freezing rain that falls can ice roads very quickly, so if your travel takes you north or northwest of Montreal tonight or Tuesday, plan accordingly.

Friday, November 25, 2011

Weekend Update

What a difference 48 hours can make in the weather department. It is breezy and mild this morning at 6C in Montreal, the warmest reading of the week and we are on the way to 10C. Needless to say plenty of snow melting has taken place in the last 12 hours or so and most of our 12cm is gone. The partial sunshine and warm southwest winds up to 50km/h today will take care of the rest and we should be snow free once again by this evening. High pressure will provide the region with a breezy, warm and dry period into Saturday before a cold front approaches southern Quebec late overnight into Sunday. Showers will develop on Sunday with periods of steadier rain likely. Temperatures will start the period well above normal, but drop to more seasonable levels into next week with a chance for showers or flurries almost everyday as we move into an unsettled period.

Thursday, November 24, 2011

Much milder

Well after yesterday's morning rush hour adventure, caused mainly by those people who think late November is too early for snow tires, today was a breeze. The snow has compacted quite a bit and even started to melt in places. Roads were bare and wet with just some icy spots in the suburbs. Say goodbye to our first taste of winter as winds will shift to the southwest today and draw in much warmer air. Temperatures under cloudy skies will reach 6C today and even warmer Friday at 9C. Montreal is already warmer than at any time yesterday at 1C. It will be a mild weekend but rain is forecast to spread into the region Saturday night, and Sunday at this time looks windy, wet and warm for late November.

The early round up for yesterday's snowstorm was about 10cm (4 inches) for Montreal (a little more at my home in Ile Perrot with about 12cm) with as much as 20cm in Plattsburgh, New York, 10-15cm for Burlington, Vermont and Sherbrooke and only a couple of centimetres in Ottawa. Windsor, Ontario had close to 60mm of rain and Halifax recorded a whopping 34cm of snow with portions of Nova Scotia having as much as 40cm along with 80km/h winds. The storm is now affecting Newfoundland.

Wednesday, November 23, 2011


Despite me telling Bella the snow was coming as early as Sunday, my two year old Terrier was as surprised as everyone else when she stepped outside this morning. (ValleyWX pic)

One word this morning, snow! Despite the warnings, lots are being caught off guard today with no winter tires, snow brushes and such. The first snow seems to come as a surprise to all and this morning is no different. Roads off island are in very poor shape, snow covered and slippery with reduced visibility. Highway 15 south is closed near St. Jerome because of a major accident. From the south shore, bridges are slow and commuters are experiencing up to an hour delay. Warnings remain posted across southern Quebec and northern New England and will remain so until about mid-day when the snow will taper off. About 5cm (2 inches) has fallen in Montreal with close to 10cm in northern Vermont and along the US border. Radar shows several more hours of snow before it ends with a storm total of 10cm forecast. Temperatures will be close to the freezing point all day. Winds are gusty this morning out of the northeast up to 40km/h reducing visibilities especially south of the city. In the last hour Montreal Trudeau Airport is reporting snow with northeast winds gusting to 33km/h and a windchill of -9C.

Once this early taste of winter passes today we can expect clearing skies and mild weather into the weekend, so most of the snow will melt. The storm responsible for the snow in Quebec and freezing rain last night in Ontario is now over southern New York state and moving east into the Atlantic. It will deepen rapidly and pound Atlantic Canada with up to 30cm of snow and strong winds later today.

Tuesday, November 22, 2011

Storm Update

As of 9:30pm the leading edge of the precipitation is approaching the Brockville/Thousand Islands region of Ontario. Snow should move into southern Quebec and Metro Montreal by 3am with the heaviest snow falling, sadly, close to the morning commute. A good 5cm is expected with as much as 10cm south of the city. Along the 401 in Ontario from Toronto northeast towards Brockville, freezing rain is expected. Toronto is currently reporting freezing rain, so roads are slick in the region. Expect winds to increase as well with gusts out of the northeast to 50km/h. This evening winds were gusting over 60km/h in southern Ontario. Low pressure will move from Illinois to New York State by tomorrow. Snow will spread across northern New England and Quebec and into Atlantic Canada on Wednesday.

Weather Warning for Montreal

On the coldest morning of the season to date (-8C here in Montreal), Environment Canada has issued a Weather Warning for southern Quebec from the Ontario border south and east to the Townships. Low pressure is lifting north from Texas into the Ohio Valley today and will pass just south of Quebec across New York State on Wednesday. Clouds will thicken up later today and the precipitation associated with this storm will spread across eastern Ontario after midnight and into Montreal during the overnight period tonight. Snow mixed with freezing rain will be the type expected here in the city with 5-10cm forecast. That amount falls well under the heavy snow warning criteria, but due to the fact it is the first snow of the season and the onset occurring during the morning commute, the warning was posted to alert the public. Up to 15cm (6 inches) may fall in the Eastern Townships and the Green Mountains.

The National Weather Service has Winter Weather Advisories posted for northern New York and Vermont. Tomorrow is a big travel day across North America, and you can expect delays in the east. Those not being affected by snow and freezing rain can expect gusty winds and heavy rain from Boston to New York. Today will be calm region wide with sunny skies and cold temperatures around 0C in Montreal. Temperatures will drop to -2C in the snow overnight and remain near 0C on Wednesday. Winds are also expected to be a factor in southern Quebec and the St. Lawrence Valley, gusting between 30 and 50km/h out of the northeast on Wednesday. Skies should clear Thursday and it will turn very mild once again.

Monday, November 21, 2011

Snow Update

It appears our first snow of the season is on the way for metro Montreal and points south and east of the city into the Townships. I hesitate to call this a storm, however it will be a potent low pressure area with decent lift as it moves from the Ohio Valley across New England on Wednesday. Moisture will be limited in Montreal due to the speed of the system and temperatures will be flirting with the freezing point through the event so some of the snow may melt. Snow should overspread the area from west to east after midnight on Tuesday into Wednesday and mix with freezing rain and rain by Wednesday morning. At this time it looks like the heaviest snow will be across the higher elevation of the Eastern Townships and New England with 10-15cm possible. In the valley's including Montreal I think 3 to 5cm is a good bet. While it is not lots of snow, it is the first taste of winter for Montreal and that will likely cause some traffic problems on Wednesday morning.

At this time a Winter Storm Watch is in effect for northern New York and Vermont with just a special weather statement highlighting the first snow of the season for Ottawa, Cornwall and Montreal. It is Thanksgiving Week south of the border, so lots of people are travelling. At this time it looks like portions of Interstate 87, 89 and 91 will be affected by snow and ice, as well as Highways 10, 15 and 20 in Quebec and the 401 in Eastern Ontario.

First snow?

It was -36.1C in Edmonton on Sunday morning. The city is in the grips of an early cold snap after a 15cm snowstorm on Thursday. (

What a bizarre fall this has been. I would not have bet that New York City and Vancouver would have measurable snow before Montreal, but both cities have. Vancouver recorded up to 5cm over the weekend. Many portions of Canada are already recording mid-winter weather including Edmonton where a new record low was established over the weekend at an incredible -36.1C. That is cold anytime of the year folks, but in November, really? The good news for the west is that a moderation in temperatures will begin today and highs will likely nudge above the freezing point by Tuesday for a day or two before more cold air arrives by the end of the week.

SNOW for MONTREAL: For us here in Montreal we had a rather balmy, docile weekend. Temperatures remained well above normal with highs of 10C on Saturday and 13C yesterday, both well above normal, today, not so warm. A cold front swept the area on Sunday with gusty winds, brief showers and dropping temperatures. We are sitting at the coldest morning so far this fall with -5C in Montreal but as cold as -10C just north of the city and -7C in Ottawa. We will not make it above freezing today. This will set the stage for perhaps and interesting 24 hours of weather beginning late Tuesday. Low pressure organizing over the southern plains is forecast to pass just south of Montreal over New England by Wednesday morning. Initial model runs had the storm too far south to affect us, but now it looks like the track will send a swath of precipitation over the St. Lawrence Valley. It will likely be cold enough at first for snow and freezing rain for Ottawa and Montreal late Tuesday and into Wednesday morning before a transition to rain from the city south. We are not looking at big amounts of precipitation, perhaps 5-10cm. However with it being the first taste of snow for the city, we all know what that means. I will update this later today, so check back. So far only a special weather statement has been issued for eastern Ontario for places like Cornwall and Ottawa for the wintry mix with perhaps up to 10cm of snow. Stay tuned.

Friday, November 18, 2011

Weekend Update

The mid-day sun hangs low on the horizon near frigid Fairbanks, Alaska yesterday. Temperatures were as cold as -49F in Alaska as record setting cold dominates the state and south into the Yukon and western Canada.

It is a chilly morning in Montreal, one of the coldest of the season at -3C, but nothing compared to western Canada. The rain of yesterday has left some frozen puddles around, but otherwise it is a bright morning. Any leftover snow flurries are over the Townships and into northeast Vermont. There is also lake effect snow falling east of Lake Ontario and Erie with a good 20cm (8 inches) in spots around the Tug Hill of western New York. Our weekend forecast looks ok for late November with a partly sunny, dry day expected Saturday with a gusty southwest wind and warming temperatures to 10C. Low pressure and a cold front will approach southern Quebec on Sunday with widespread showers and windy conditions. Temperatures will drop quickly late Sunday so we could see a brief period of flurries once again before precipitation ends overnight Sunday. The start of next week looks dry and seasonably cool at this time.

ARCTIC CHILL: If you want the really cold air look out west across the Prairies, Rockies and into Alaska. The cold is setting all kinds of records for so early in the season. It is -16C this morning in Edmonton, and that is the best they will do. As the cold air deepens, temperatures will continue to drop today to overnight lows of -24C. Meanwhile Alaska is downright frigid. Yesterday Fort Yukon dropped to -46F, while Fairbanks set a new record cold "high" of -30F, that is 39 degrees colder than the normal high. It smashed the previous record of -19F set in 1904. The overnight low there was also a new record, -41F, the old one being -39F established in 1969. Temperatures will moderate slightly over the next few days.

Thursday, November 17, 2011

SNOW and colder

Ok now that I have your attention, it will only be some scattered snow flurries for Montreal. A cold front moved through the city last night with very little notice, just a wind shift from the southwest to northwest. This has brought in noticeably cooler air this morning and the city is at 1C. It will not warm much today as clouds begin to increase once again with a few showers likely by afternoon. Winds will become gusty and temperatures will do no better than 5C before lowering below freezing to -2C tonight. Any showers will change over to flurries after sunset and end after midnight. Roads, especially elevated structures may be a little slippery in places overnight.

The gusty northwest winds are setting up snow squalls in the usual trouble spots southeast of Lakes Huron, Erie and Ontario. Warnings are out for the Bruce Peninsula in Ontario as well as around Sault Ste Marie for up to 25cm of snow. Warnings are also in effect for Jefferson, Lewis and Oswego Counties in New York for 6 to 9 inches of snow. The snow will intensify this afternoon and taper by Friday morning. As with all lake snow events expect the heaviest snow in very narrow bands with amounts ranging from nothing to up to 5cm an hour just a few miles away.

In western Canada the cold air continues to pour into Alberta and Saskatchewan. A pesky low pressure area will spread from northern Alberta into the southern Prairies today with accumulating snow and strong winds. A winter storm warning is in effect for Edmonton and parts of central Alberta for 10-15cm of snow. This morning Edmonton is -10C with a northeast wind at 30km/h and a windchill of -19C. Temperatures will not warm today but drop in the heavy snow with poor travel and low visibility. It was as cold as -40C in the Yukon yesterday morning, The cold has set new records across Alaska as well.

Wednesday, November 16, 2011

Lake effect snow machine

Lake effect snow will make travel difficult in parts of western New York and central Ontario late tonight and Thursday. This photo was taken along Interstate 81 during a 2008 lake snow event south of Watertown.

The lake effect snow machine will likely get cranked up for the first time this season late tonight and especially Thursday afternoon into Friday morning. Low pressure and a cold front will cross the area today setting up a westerly fetch off the central Great Lakes. The most likely area for accumulating snow will be the higher elevations east of Lake Ontario and Erie across western New York. There is a watch in effect for Osewgo, Jefferson and Lewis Counties of New York. This includes Interstate 81 between Watertown and Syracuse, so if you have travels that way keep this in mind. There is also a snow squall watch out for Sault Ste Marie in Ontario for up to 25cm of wind driven lake effect snow, getting cranked up later today.

Outside of that, including here in Montreal, the weather picture looks tranquil for mid-November. One low pressure area over Mississippi will produce rain and some severe weather in the southern US and towards the middle Atlantic, but that will remain well south of our regions. That same cold front starting the lake snows will produce some isolated showers tonight into Thursday before cooler temperatures allow for some flurries to mix in. Ahead of the front it will be very mild today, well above normal at 14C. Temperatures will be quite a bit cooler tomorrow and Friday remaining near 5C and quite windy out of the west up to 50km/h. Arctic air moving into the Rockies and Prairies will retreat back north again, so I expect very little of it to reach us here in the east. It appears next week will be mild again with no big storms on the horizon and temperatures back to above normal values.

Tuesday, November 15, 2011

Record Highs

It was unseasonably warm across southern Quebec and Ontario on Monday with numerous record highs broken. They included 18.6C at Trudeau Airport in Montreal, and 18.2 at St. Hubert. St Anicet near the Ontario border was 19C but this fell just short of the record 19.8C set in 1994. It is cooler today with a high of 12C forecast, but that is still well above the normal high of 5C for November 15. Meanwhile severe weather spread from Arkansas to western New York yesterday in the warm air with reports of hail, high winds and even tornadoes. Damage was observed in may locations across Ohio and Indiana.

Out west arctic cold is plunging into Alberta and Saskatchewan and even west along the BC coast. Snow and windy conditions are accompanying the cold. It is -9C is Edmonton this morning with a fresh coating of snow on the ground, and it will be as cold as -20C by Friday morning. As the cold air moves east, it will moderate somewhat, but still be cold enough to produce lake effect snow over the Great Lakes by late Wednesday and Thursday. More on that tonight. The cold air will eventually be into Montral by the end of the weekend with lows below freezing and highs just above at plus 1 or 2C.

Monday, November 14, 2011

Near record highs today

Warm air continues to invade the St. Lawrence Valley this morning on strong southwest winds. Along the leading edge of the warmer air, shower activity is occurring, that should taper off shortly. Winds will further increase to between 40 and 70km/h for most of the day. The record high for Montreal today is 17.2 set in 1959. If we see a few breaks of sunshine that record may fall with highs forecast close to 16C, again well above normal for mid-November. No snow is in sight at this time through mid-week with just a chance of some flurries by weeks end. It will remain mild through late Wednesday before a strong cold front drops temperatures closer to the normal high of 5C for Montreal. Looking ahead into next week that arctic outbreak I talked about building over Alaska and the arctic region will start to move south into the Rockies and Prairies. Snow and biting cold is expected as far south and east as the northern US and western Great Lakes. It is too soon to tell exactly how far south and east the cold air will move.

Friday, November 11, 2011

Weekend Update

Take time to remember today with 2 minutes of silence at 11am.

I remember as a child my dad telling me from a very young age how important this day was. We lived such a wonderful life in a big warm and safe home. He made sure I knew why we lived in such a free and safe country. It was the men and women and their families who fought for our freedom or suffered while their loved ones fought, and paid such a high price for our way of life. I never forget that to this day. Remembrance Day and wearing a poppy have always been the very least I can do, we can do to pay tribute to the ultimate sacrifice that many of our fellow Canadians and Americans have paid and continue to pay to ensure our freedom. Please take time to remember today and pay respect to them.

There is lots of weather to talk about today, and I am not sure where to start. I guess our own forecast is a good a place as any. It is noticeably cooler this morning with temperatures close to the freezing point. We will warm just a little to about 5C with mostly cloudy skies and an increasing northwest wind up to 50km/h. Most of the weekend looks cloudy, with temperatures near normal and perhaps a shower or two. It will be milder to start next week, but remain cloudy. That wind is in response to low pressure in Atlantic Canada. That cold front that moved through Montreal yesterday is now in the Maratimes with moisture streaming northward along it from Tropical Storm Sean. That will ensure a very wet and windy day across our east coast with over 50mm of rain forecast. Meanwhile in Ontario, cold northwest winds are producing the first lake effect snow of the season south of Lake Huron. Snow will accumulate 5-10cm today in places like Barrie. Temperatures are mild enough that most of it may melt on the roads, but a slushy coating is possible and visibilities will be low.

Looking ahead some of the coldest air of the season is pooling over the arctic and Alaska. Temperatures are forecast to plunge well below freezing with snow next week across the west. That cold air is expected to work its way into eastern Canada by next weekend. While it is too early for specifics, we could see our first wintry precipitation in Montreal by next weekend. You are forewarned as promised.

Thursday, November 10, 2011

The Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald

The wind in the wires made a tattle-tale sound
And a wave broke over the railing
And every man knew, as the captain did too,
T'was the witch of November come stealin'.

Today is the 36th anniversary of the wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald with the loss of all 29 on board just off Whitefish Point, Michigan on Lake Superior. The ship was sunk by a serious of misfortunes exasperated by a November Witch. These are strong Great Lakes gales that form over Colorado and bomb out (strengthen rapidly) over the central Great Lakes. They can produce heavy precipitation and hurricane force winds. They whip the lakes into a frenzy with 20 foot seas or higher. In the case of the November 10th, 1975 Witch, it was estimated wave heights were as much as 25 feet. The ship sank quickly and catastrophically, virtually disappearing off radar screens in a matter of seconds.

We have a similar but much weaker storm over the Great Lakes today with heavy snow across Wisconsin and the upper peninsula of Michigan overnight. Some locations have recorded a foot of heavy wet snow. The snow has spread into central northern Ontario where up to 20cm fell overnight in Wawa and points north. Gale warnings are posted for much of the western Great Lakes with winds up to 100km/h (60mph) possible. The first lake effect snow of the season is also occurring over western upper Michigan today.

Wednesday, November 09, 2011

Sat image of a powerful fall storm bearing down on the west coast of Alaska this morning. (Russia on the left, Alaska on the right).

It is another fair and mild morning in Montreal today, and we are certainly on borrowed time this late in the season. The normal high for today is 7C, we are currently 8C and are expecting highs once again close to 16C. Skies will be sunny with a warm southwest wind developing by afternoon. The record high for today is 19C set in 1945. We may have enough warm air and sunshine to challenge this, but I think the record highs will remain across Vermont and New York where they may see a 20C high or two. The nice weather will come to an end Thursday as low pressure and an associated cold front lift from Michigan into Ontario. Rain will develop on Thursday with increasing winds and lowering temperatures. There is even a shot at some flurries by Friday, especially north of Montreal and across the Townships. The cold will be short lived as milder weather is expected by the end of the weekend and into next week.

That same storm that will bring us rain, produced some wet snow overnight in Kansas City and across Iowa. The snow will spread into western Michigan today and northern Ontario where up to 15cm of wet snow is possible. Winter Storm Warnings are in effect for the Wawa, Kapuskasing and Hearst areas today. Strong winds over 50km/h will make it feel much colder than the 0C highs expected.

Epic Alaskan storm: The National Weather Service is forecasting a record storm for the coast of Alaska today. The low pressure area over the Bearing Sea is as powerful as a hurricane with widespread 80mph winds expected, heavy snow and rain and high pounding surf and surge for the west coast of Alaska. I checked this morning and Nome was 27F with heavy snow and 40mph winds. Needless to say widespread storm warnings are in effect and travel is not advised. The weather service calls the storm dangerous and life threatening.

Tuesday, November 08, 2011

A late season tornado near Tipton, Oklahoma on Monday.

A very mild air mass remains over southern Quebec this morning with Montreal already above our normal daytime high for November 8. We are currently 7C after a high of 15C on Monday. Expect more of the same today after some fog and mist burns off this morning, temperatures will soar under bright sunshine to 16C. The same holds true for Wednesday, before a frontal system and associated low pressure area cross Quebec on Thursday and Friday with windy, wet weather and dropping temperatures.

We have an active weather pattern across the central portion of the continent with low pressure lifting north from Texas into the Great Lakes today. East of the center in the warm air thunderstorms produced tornadoes yesterday in Oklahoma with a farm destroyed near Tipton. The same storm system will produce more sever weather today across the lower Ohio and Tennessee Valley's, and is prompting a Winter Storm Watch across the upper peninsula of Michigan and eastern Wisconsin for Wednesday. A general 15cm of wet snow is possible in these regions extending north into northwest Ontario north of Lake Superior on Wednesday.

SEAN - Meanwhile the tropical Atlantic is showing some signs of life as sub-tropical storm Sean formed overnight. The storm is located about 720km southwest of Bermuda and is nearly stationary this morning with 45mph winds. The system is expected to remain weak and eventually merge with a frontal boundary over the open waters of the Atlantic. Sean is however enough of a threat for the Bermuda Government to issue a tropical storm watch for the island nation effective at 7am local time today.

Monday, November 07, 2011

Warm week ahead in Quebec

Temperatures are rapidly on the rise this morning after we flirted with the freezing point overnight. A general frost has covered everything outside but that should melt away quickly as temperatures soar to well above normal highs of 15C in Montreal today. The record high today is 20C set in 1975. We won't come near that but temperatures will be more than double the normal of 6C. Montreal and the entire region can expect sunshine today and again on Tuesday. The next chance of rain won't come until Thursday. As we look ahead to next weekend, sharply colder air and flurries are likely by Sunday. Oh by the way we had 8.4cm of snow in Montreal on this day in 1981, so November goes either way. Enjoy the sunshine today.

Meanwhile the cold and snow are out west across Saskatchewan and Manitoba. (Global image above of Saskatoon on Sunday). Temperatures are a cold -10C in Regina and Calgary this morning and a fresh 10-15cm of snow is on the ground in southern Saskatchewan and Western Manitoba. The rain has even changed to snow in Winnipeg this morning at -1C. The RCMP were advising drivers to stay of the Trans Canada Highway in Saskatchewan Sunday afternoon after dozens of accidents occurred. Roads were icy, snow packed and visibilities were low in blowing snow. The storm causing the wintry precipitation is moving northeast towards Hudson Bay. Another area of low pressure organizing in Texas will begin to lift north towards Lake Superior on Tuesday. This storm will be responsible for severe weather in Texas and Oklahoma, and another snowstorm for the northern plains and northwest Ontario. The snow in Ontario, north of Lake Superior, will likely amount to more than 15cm, with strong winds as well, so warnings are likely to be issued later today or Tuesday.

Saturday, November 05, 2011

Weekend Update

Calgary Herald photo of a city bus stranded on an icy street on Friday.

It is a very chilly start to the day across the region with temperatures in the -2 to -6C. A hard frost has virtually killed off anything still growing as winter begins to slowly establish itself across Canada. Yesterday sunshine prevailed in Montreal while south and east of the city in the Townships and south into Vermont scattered snow flurries were observed. The weekend looks excellent for any outdoor adventures whether it be hiking to see the remaining colors of the season, winterizing your home or dare I say putting up the Christmas lights. Today will be sunny and plus 7C in Montreal and southern Quebec, back down to -1C tonight and up to an above normal high of plus 10C with sunshine on Sunday. The tranquil weather will prevail to start the week before low pressure ushers in rain and eventually colder air by late next week.

That cold air this morning is across the west as an arctic front presses south into Montana. The front dropped temperatures into the minus teens in Calgary with that cities first dose of snow yesterday. Nearly 350 accidents were reported snarling traffic across the city. Today low pressure will move across extreme eastern Montana and into Manitoba. Snow will fall from eastern Montana into North Dakota, Manitoba and southeast Saskatchewan with 5 to 15cm likely. The snow will be driven by 70km/h winds by late tonight making travel across the southern prairies rather dangerous with low visibility and icy roads. Conditions should improve by Sunday afternoon but it will remain blustery and cold.

Wednesday, November 02, 2011

Fair weather in the east

A portion of I-70 in Colorado remains closed today due to heavy snow and strong winds.

The question on everyone's lips lately is when are we going to see our first snow in Montreal, southern Quebec and eastern Ontario? Not anytime soon is my short, less complicated answer. Don't worry I will let you know well in advance. It looks like high pressure will give us a decent stretch of fair weather with normal temperatures right into this upcoming weekend. The only threat for clouds and showers will come late Thursday as a weak cold front crosses the region. This will be an ideal weekend to get outdoors and get your place ready for winter. Temperatures will be between 12 and 15C today, lowering to 9C or so into the weekend. Lows will be near the freezing point.

The main storm energy remains to our south across the US. This time Colorado and Wyoming are being affected by a blizzard this morning. An arctic front is pouring cold air across Alberta and BC and into the Rockies while moisture is moving in from the southwest. The combination of fresh snow, 5-10 inches worth, and 40mph north winds is producing very dangerous travel weather in Colorado and western Nebraska. A portion of I-70 has been closed as are numerous schools. Conditions will only improve on Thursday. Much colder air is also poised to spread across the Rockies and into the southern Prairies by the weekend. Snow and cold weather is forecast in Saskatchewan and eventually Manitoba by Saturday.

Tuesday, November 01, 2011

A November break

One last image of the big snows this weekend, this one from West Milford, New Jersey from Fox News. Over 19 inches of snow nearly 50cm fell there. I travel into that area every May, and it is just slightly elevated thus a degree or two colder than metro NYC.

I can`t believe Halloween is over and November is here. It still amazes me summer is over. I have been in total denial, even after I was shelling out hundreds for new winter tires this past weekend and watching the record snow pile up across the interior of the Northeast US. That storm by the way broke all kinds of records up and down the coast and into New Brunswick and Nova Scotia. Power remains out to nearly 2 million this morning as the clean up continues. Milder weather is on tap for much of the region as high pressure dominates the middle part of the week. It will be seasonable with cold overnight lows near freezing and daytime highs near 10C. A cold front late Thursday will give us some sprinkles or showers in Ontario and Quebec and then we can expect sunshine and cooler weather for the weekend.

Out west the first really cold arctic air mass of the season is getting ready to spread from the Yukon into northern BC with snow and below freezing temperatures. The arctic front will settle across BC and Alberta by the weekend.

Lots of pictures and video of the snow HERE.