Monday, October 31, 2011

A dry Halloween

An AP photo of the Halloween snowstorm this past weekend.
Below: thousands of trees fell on cars and power lines
across New England.

Happy Halloween everyone, expect partly cloudy skies for trick or treating tonight in Montreal, with temperatures around 5C. We are looking at a dry week until Thursday with temperatures right around normal for the start of November.

That was one scary storm this past weekend, as portions of the east coast from Newfoundland to New Jersey were hammered by 100km/h winds and a record breaking 1 to 2 feet of heavy wet snow. The hardest hit areas stretched from Northwest New Jersey into Connecticut, western Massachusetts, southern Vermont and New Hampshire where as much as 30 inches of snow fell. The snow brought down a tremendous amount of trees onto houses, power lines and cars. Extra hydro crews are scrambling into the region today to restore power to more than 2.5 million homes. As impressive as that amount is, it is down from nearly 4 million at the height of the storm. Over 800,000 lost power in Connecticut alone shattering the record just set by Hurricane Irene this summer. Some of the more impressive numbers included 32 inches of snow at Peru, Mass, and a 133km/h wind gust at Grand Etang, Newfoundland. Even Metro NYC got in on the act with over 2 inches of snow in Central Park, the most in October since the days of the Civil War! Eight deaths are being blamed on the storm and damage estimates will run into the hundreds of millions. The clean up is underway on this Halloween Monday, and will be helped by much warmer air in the region this week, but it could take up to a week to connect the power in the hardest hit areas.

Locally we had just some cloud cover and gusty winds in Montreal from the storm as the system passed too far south. You had to go south of Burlington before you encountered the snow. Accumulations in Vermont ranged from a trace at Burlington to nearly 10 inches in southern Vermont along the Mass border.

Saturday, October 29, 2011

Storm Update

UNREAL - New England Thruway in metro NYC in heavy snow at noon today.

Highland County, Virginia this morning (AccuWeather)

Precipitation continues to spread northward this morning from Virginia into Maryland and into the northeast. Heavy wet snow has already blanketed portions of northern Virginia with as much as 7 inches. Snow is also falling in southern New York State and Pennsylvania. The snow will spread into Vermont and New Hampshire later today into this evening. All this precipitation is in response to low pressure deepening rapidly off the Carolina coast. That storm will lift quickly to the north and east to be near Cape Cod on Sunday morning and finally into Atlantic Canada. Heavy snow and rain will spread along the storm track with strong winds from 30 to 55mph in gusts. Besides the heavy snow, coastal flooding is also occurring with this storm. Already this morning nearly 40,000 people are without power in VA, MD and PA due to heavy wet snow taking down trees and wires and that number will certainly grow today. Montreal will remain on the northern edge of the cloud shield from the storm with the snow making it no further than the southern Townships where 5cm is expected to fall close to the US border with Vermont and New Hampshire.

Friday, October 28, 2011

Big Nor'Easter

Oh so close. The seasons first big snowstorm should miss Montreal.

An early season snowstorm is taking shape tonight across the middle Atlantic and into the northeast. Snowstorms in late October are not uncommon, I have experienced them in Saskatchewan and in Ontario. What makes this unusual is how far south the snow is expected to fall. Low pressure currently over Virginia will re develop as a major coastal low off the Carolina coast on Saturday. Strengthening northerly winds on the backside of the storm will pull down just enough cold air to change rain to snow inland. Heavy rain will fall along the coast with strong winds and coastal flooding. A cold rain will overspread the region from Maryland and Virginia northeast into southern interior New England on Saturday and gradually change to heavy wet snow late in the evening. Winter Storm Warnings are scattered from southern Vermont across New York and into Pennsylvania, Maryland and Virginia. The wet snow will accumulate at least 6 inches in these locations with as much as 12 inches quite possible in a swath across southeastern New York into Massachusetts. The wet snow will likely pull down trees and power lines across the northeast and New England.

If you are travelling to Sherbrooke or the Eastern Townships (Highway 10) late Saturday or early Sunday, expect to encounter snow there as well. Only 2-4cm (1-2 inches) is forecast as Quebec remains at this time on the northern edge of the storm. Montreal can expect increasing cloud cover, cool temperatures and a gusty northeast winds up to 40km/h by late Saturday as a result of the storm. No snow is forecast for Montreal at this time. The storm will move into Atlantic Canada on Sunday with heavy snow, rain and strong winds.

Weekend Update

Major snow south of Montreal in southern New England

It is a frosty morning in Montreal with temperatures down below freezing across the region including -1C at Trudeau Airport and here on Ile Perrot. Partly sunny skies will prevail today with temperatures at 5C. The weekend for southern Quebec looks decent with chilly conditions, frequent cloudy periods, but dry weather is expected.

Weekend Snowstorm?
Yesterday was chilly and breezy with a heavy cloud cover all day as low pressure skirted across the middle Atlantic region. All the precipitation from this storm remained south of the border with up to 7 inches of snow in southern Vermont. That storm is now affecting Newfoundland with high winds and up to 10cm of wet snow across the Avalon this afternoon. While high pressure will keep us dry this weekend, another potent storm is taking shape along the US east coast. It is forecast to move north and eat and lie near Cape Cod by Saturday night. The storm will then rapidly move into Atlantic Canada. Already this morning Winter Storm Watches are in effect for southern interior New England for Saturday night. It looks like a 12 hour period of heavy wet snow is possible with up to 6 inches likely especially across the higher elevations of Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachusetts and Connecticut.. At this time it appears the snow will stay south of Montreal but I will keep a close watch on this system today so check back here and on my twitter link for updates.

Thursday, October 27, 2011

Hard freeze tonight

Heavy snow on the Burgeo Highway, Newfoundland on Wednesday (
Full Details HERE

Temperatures will drop well below freezing in southern Quebec and eastern Ontario tonight bringing and end to the growing season. We have already had frost in most locations but tonight the region will see widespread temperatures in the -3 to -5C range that will last for several hours. That is the bad news, the good news is that the weather looks dry now right into the weekend. The pattern of late is shifting the storm track well south of our region across southern New England. This morning light snow is falling across the higher elevations of southern New York into southern Vermont and the Berkshires of Massachusetts, and it will slide east off the coast. That storm will move off the east coast and affect Atlantic Canada on Friday. Another potent low is forecast to develop along the middle Atlantic over the weekend and move north with precipitation and wind. It is also expected at this time to remain well south and east of Montreal. So in summary we can expect cloud cover and cool temperatures into the weekend, but little in the way of precipitation. It will be chilly with daytime highs in the plus 5 to 8C range and nighttime lows, as mentioned below freezing to -3C In the city. Halloween looks dry at the moment with cool temperatures.

That snowstorm in Colorado yesterday dumped as much as 40cm (14 inches) of snow in the ski areas with about 15cm (6 inches) in Denver. The heavy wet snow dropped trees on power lines and forced the closure of schools. Meanwhile a powerful storm along the eastern coast of Newfoundland produced damaging winds and heavy snow and rain. The classic coastal storm bombed out rapidly producing heavy precipitation and strong winds. Winds gusted between 70 and 110km/h in places like Gander, Burgeo and Twillingate. Snow also blanketed many parts of the province including Gander. Waves and surge caused damage in some coastal communities. Winds remain strong in Newfoundland today, and wind warnings have been posted for many portions of the province. Additionally a Winter Storm Watch is now in effect for southeast Newfoundland for the next storm that is expected to approach the area from New England on Friday.

Wednesday, October 26, 2011

Cool weather

CDOT traffic camera of snow falling this morning north of Denver.

The forecast for the balance of the week is finally becoming a little more clear (pardon the pun). The threat for precipitation, at least for Montreal is somewhat less now with more sunshine expected. High pressure over the area this morning will push storm system 1 to our south taking with it any threat for snow or rain. Radar is showing this trend this morning with clouds to our south and light precipitation staying in Vermont and NY. The second more potent storm that is giving Colorado its first snowstorm of the season this morning will also be pushed south of the region late Thursday. All precipitation should remain to our south over New York and southern Vermont. However one thing that will be noticeable to end the week, is the cooler weather. Temperatures will be below normal into the weekend with cool daytime highs of 4 to 7C (39 to 45F) and overnight lows to about -3C (27F) in the city and colder in the suburbs with frost and a hard freeze likely.

Heavy snow is falling across portions of northern Colorado this morning which as much as 6 inches reported. Lesser amount have fallen in Denver with 1 to 3 inches so far, but amazing when you think they had a record high of 80F on Monday. CDOT is reporting roads becoming snow covered and slippery across portions of the state with more snow and gusty winds forecast today. It is only 28F (-2C) in Denever this morning with light snow.

Hurricane Rina continues to meander just off the Yucatan coast this morning with 110mph winds. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft has centered the storm about 385km southeast of Cozumel drifting west at 5mph. Hurricane warnings are in effect as far north as Cancun as the category 2 storm slowly drifts along the coastline and then northeast towards south Florida and northern Cuba over the next 48 hours. Torrential rain of 8-16 inches and a surge up to 7 feet is forecast for the Yucatan coast including Cancun later today and tonight. While the storm may briefly reach category 3 strength today, forecasters expect Rina to begin to weaken in response to land, wind shear and cooler water temperatures. The storm still needs to be monitored closely for any impact on Florida and the southeast US coast into the weekend.

Tuesday, October 25, 2011

Hurricane Rina

Hurricane Rina slowly drifting towards the Yucatan. (NOAA Image)

We have been given a reminder that the 2011 hurricane season is not quite over yet. As a matter of fact it has about 5 weeks to go and we have a rapidly developing nasty little hurricane in the Caribbean Sea east of Honduras heading towards the southern Gulf of Mexico this morning. Rina has wind speeds of 100mph making her a category 2 storm. Indications are that the storm will further intensify today and become a major hurricane. The storm is located about 335km southwest of Grand Caymen Island and slowly drifting towards the west northwest. The Government of Mexico has posted a Hurricane Watch for the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula including Cancun and Cozumel. The storm is forecast to brush the coastline later this week before heading northeast towards Cuba. It is way too soon to forecast if it will affect Florida or the US mainland at this time.

Wild weather is expected across the Western US during the next 24 hours. A potent storm is gathering steam and is expected to become the seasons first snowstorm for portions of the Rockies. Winter Storm Warnings are in effect for much of the inter mountain west including metro Denver. Now just think, Denver hit a record high of 81F yesterday while they were under a winter storm watch. That has since been upgraded to a warning with 6 to 10 inches of snow expected by Wednesday morning. Temperatures are around 57F this morning but will continue to fall to below freezing tonight and remain there on Wednesday in the snow.

That system is forecast to approach the east coast by the weekend with rain and snow possible in New England. Computer models are all over the place this week, so forecaster confidence is low. The best we can do for Montreal and southern Quebec is to tell you to expect near or slightly below normal temperatures into the weekend with a chance of showers early today and again on Thursday. There is a chance of a rain/snow mix by the weekend. In between expect sunshine and cooler temperatures for Wednesday and again Friday. Overnight lows will be below freezing into the weekend.

Monday, October 24, 2011

Snow this week?

There has been lots of chatter about a possible snowfall later this week. I was going to write about it on the weekend but I thought I would let the hype settle down a little. First of all it is only snow, it happens every year. Secondly I don't think it will amount to to much. We start things off this week with bright sunshine and fairly mild temperatures today. It is chilly at the moment with 4C in Montreal but should warm nicely under the sunshine and a southwest flow today to 16C. A cold front approaching from the west will trigger showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder this evening until about midnight. That will be followed by gusty northwest winds up to 50km/h and cloudy skies into Tuesday with cooler temperatures in the 10C range.

The next threat for precipitation will come late Thursday as low pressure organizes in the southern US and heads for the Eastern seaboard. Depending on the exact path of the system we could see a rain/snow mix overnight into Friday morning. At this time the heaviest snow would be across the upper elevations of New York and Vermont and perhaps the Townships. But the possibility does exist for even a slushy accumulation on some surfaces in the valley. There is lots of uncertainty in the forecast so we will have to wait and see, stay tuned for more.

Friday, October 21, 2011

Weekend Update

The storm system that affected the region yesterday producing strong winds and heavy rainfall from Ontario to Atlantic Canada, continues to meander northeast of Montreal this morning. Light rain is still falling in the city after about 40mm in the last 36 hours. Peak winds in Montreal approached 70km/h with the storm. There were also some decent thunderstorms yesterday afternoon that developed in New York state and swept across the city from the south. They produced torrential rains and strong winds around 4pm. Some minor flooding along roadways was reported slowing the evening commute, but little else. In Ontario the storm produced heavy rain as well with 78mm at Hamilton. Peak winds in the GTA were around 80km/h, stronger along the immediate Great Lakes shorelines. Tree damage and power outages were reported. The same storm system also produced heavy rain in Atlantic Canada with 110.6mm of rain in Halifax.

The weekend in southern Quebec looks typical for late October. While it will not be a washout by any means, there will be a chance of a persistent annoyance shower or two on both Saturday and Sunday. We may see a few sunny breaks, but don't count on too much sunshine. Temperatures will be near normal with highs around 11C and lows around 6C.

Thursday, October 20, 2011

Big fall storm weakens

An angry Lake Michigan yesterday.

A big spin of low pressure over Ohio is slowly weakening this morning as it moves northeast into Ontario and eventually southern Quebec. The storm is really our first of what will be many strong cyclonic storms this fall season. Typically fueled by cold Arctic air and warm tropical air these storms deepen rapidly in the Midwest US and head for the Great Lakes or St. Lawrence Valley. This storm has produced very heavy rain especially across Ontario last evening (25-50mm) and overnight in southern Quebec. Montreal had about 15mm, most of that falling in a torrential downpour around 3am complete with lightning and thunder. The other story with this storm have been the strong winds. Wind gusts in the 60 and 70km/h range in the Montreal area have caused some minor damage and scattered power outages overnight. Further west across Illinois and Wisconsin on the colder the back side of the system, strong northerly winds over 100km/h (60mph) have whipped Lake Michigan into a frenzy with 25 foot waves and lake shore flooding.

The storm is weakening so conditions will slowly improve today. A few more showers and even a rumble of thunder is possible in southern Quebec. Winds will remain gusty all day but abate overnight tonight. The weekend looks gray and chilly at this time, typical October weather.

Wednesday, October 19, 2011

Strong winds...again

We have a strong low pressure area packed with tropical moisture taking shape over Kentucky this morning. The storm will lift north in southern and eastern Ontario over the next 24 to 36 hours. After another cloudy day in Montreal today, look for rain to overspread the area from south to north overnight and Thursday. The rain will be the heaviest west of the storm center over Ontario. Heavy rainfall warnings are in effect for southwest Ontario where up to 50mm is forecast. Less will fall in Montreal with about 25mm expected. The bigger story here in the St. Lawrence Valley will be the strong northeast winds. They will increase to between 30 and 50km/h today and further intensify to 50 to 80km/h tonight, just below warning criteria. Meanwhile around Quebec City and along the north shore of Lake Ontario, winds will exceed 90km/h therefore a high wind warning is in effect. The entire system will move northeast of the forecast area by Friday with a blustery wind and cooler temperatures expected into the weekend. Our high today will reach 13C, with milder air in the rain on Thursday at 18C before a cool down Friday and into the weekend around 10C.

Tuesday, October 18, 2011

Wet - windy week

It is definitely October. The walk with Bella this morning included gloves and an upgrade in the jacket department. We are at a chilly 9C on Ile Perrot, but it is damp and still breezy. Southern Quebec will remain under the influence of low pressure over James Bay today with a southwest flow of damp air coming off the Great Lakes. Temperatures will be around 13C with the ever present risk of showers.

We have a very stormy weather pattern shaping up for the balance of the week. Low pressure will get organized over the Ohio Valley and tap into moisture from a tropical low near Florida (see NOAA image above). That energy will slowly move northeast into Quebec by late in the week. Look for rain and windy weather to develop late Wednesday and taper to showers by late Thursday. Temperatures will remain near normal with all the precipitation in Quebec falling as rain. About 25mm is expected here with as much as 50mm in southern and central Ontario. Meanwhile west of the storm center, colder air will arrive by late Thursday and switch the rain to snow in a swath from north of Sudbury to Timmins. Some models are predicting up to 10cm could fall by Friday. We will see how the storm evolves and tracks, this, however will not produce any snow in Montreal, but it is coming.

Monday, October 17, 2011

Unsettled week ahead

The wind keeps blowing this morning over southern Quebec, however at much lighter speeds in the 40km/h range. Peak gusts were close to 100km/h over portions of Ontario and Quebec over the weekend, somewhat less in Montreal gusting close to 70km/h at times. Very little in the way of damage was reported here, except for some torn umbrellas and lots and lots of leaves littering the ground. In one week we went from green and yellow leaves to bursts of red to trees stripped bare. The culprit for our weekend weather is a rather stagnant spin of low pressure located near James Bay. This storm will continue to provide gusty southwest winds today with periods of clouds and a stray shower or two. It should ease tomorrow with a few breaks before our next system moves in.

Much stronger low pressure will organize in the deep south with the help of Gulf of Mexico moisture. That plume of moisture will lift into the northeast and New England by Thursday with another round of soaking rain. Early estimates have at least 25mm falling and the possibility exists for as much as 75mm especially across Ontario and New York. Winds will get ramped up again in the 40-60km/h range. On the backside of the storm, snow is even possible across the western Great Lakes. Montreal and our entire area will remain on the warm side of this storm so no snow expected yet.

Saturday, October 15, 2011

Strong Winds

Strong winds whip up waves on Lake Erie yesterday
(AccuWeather Photo)

8pm update: High Wind Warning in effect for Montreal and the St. Lawrence Valley. Winds are increasing from the southwest between 50-90km/h until about 4am when they should start to diminish. The strongest winds are still to our west with gusts reported at 94km/h at Point Petre on Lake Ontario, 80km/h at Kingston, 67km/h at Toronto and 46km/h at Montreal with higher gusts off island. Radar is also showing an area of steady rain heading into southwestern Quebec at 8pm. Temperatures are chilly between 9 and 11C.

A deepening area of low pressure in central Ontario continues to spin towards the northeast this morning. The storm has sent a strong cold front across eastern Ontario and southern Quebec with showers and thunderstorms into the overnight hours. Close to 40mm of rain fell here on Ile Perrot in the last 24 hours with more falling this morning. The difference today is it is a cold rain as we are only at 11C on the backside of the cold front. Adding to the misery today are strong southwest winds blowing at 50km/h in Montreal and stronger in Ontario. Gusts have been observed close to 80km/h. Wind warnings are posted for portion of Ontario closest to the lakes. In audition a wind advisory is in effect for northern New York. Winds in the warned areas could approach 90km/h while elsewhere they may be as high as 70km/h. The winds will ease after midnight tonight. Winds this strong are capable of downing tree limbs and power lines. Also take note that lots of leaves are falling off the trees this weekend. Wet leaves can make roads slick and also block sewers and rain gutters. Temperatures will do no better than the norm for this time of year, around 13C and overnight lows around 9C. There is a slim chance for a sunny break or two Sunday.

Looking ahead another big wet and windy fall storm could affect the area by Wednesday. Stay tuned for more on that.

Friday, October 14, 2011

Weekend Update

Enjoy the colors quickly, with strong winds forecast this weekend, lots of leaves will be hitting the ground.

9:45am UPDATE: Heavy Rain Warnings have been extended to Montreal and the metro region for up to 100mm of rain over the next 24 hours. The heavy rain will cause ponding of water on roads and highways as well as some flooding. Watch for blocked drains and sewers due to leaves.

Low pressure is developing this morning in Ohio and is expected to deepen rapidly and move into Ontario over the weekend. This system will bring strong winds to the region along with showers. This morning we remain under the influence of a low pressure trough swinging through the area. Bands of heavy showers and embedded thunderstorms continue to move form south to north from New York into southern Quebec. The rain could be heavy at times with 30-50mm quite likely over the next 24-36 hours. Temperatures will be mild today but gradually cool over the weekend. As the system moves to our north, strong west and southwest winds will develop tonight and last into Saturday. Winds will gust between 40-60km/h in Montreal and locally as high as 80km/h in parts of Ontario and Quebec. Warnings and advisories may be needed for Saturday. Very little sunshine is expected this weekend.

On the backside of this windy system, it will turn sharply colder with rain turning to wet snow in northern Ontario, with as much as 10cm forecast for Pickle Lake and Big Trout Lake.

Thursday, October 13, 2011

Unsettled weather

I must apologize for the lack of weather updates lately. We have a new 22 pound bundle of joy known as Bella, our Terrier. She has my schedule a little upside down these days. She loves to chase leaves, and with only a small percent down in our neighborhood, she has lots of work ahead of her. That will start as early as this weekend and continue into next week as two windy and progressively colder low pressure areas finally make it feel like October. Montreal temperatures, and indeed most of Quebec and Ontario, have been running well above normal, and in some cases double the normal. Our dry weather patter that started on October 3rd, has come to an end this morning as rain showers are moving across the valley. A warm front will lift north of Montreal today with mild and perhaps partly cloudy weather through mid-day Friday. A gusty cold front will then produce some heavier showers and perhaps thunder into Friday evening. The weekend looks very unsettled with much cooler weather and winds gusting up to 50km/h. Looks like lost of leaves blowing in the air for Bella.

Next week another strong low pressure area will produce more rain and wind. On the back side of this next storm some areas around the Great Lakes and upper elevations in Quebec and New York/Vermont could even see a period of wet snow. More on that later.

Wednesday, October 12, 2011

Jova makes landfall

Hurricane Jova moved inland overnight near Chamela, Mexico as a category 2 storm. Strong winds in excess of 100mph and heavy rain are spreading inland along the southwest Pacific coast of Mexico. Jova will continue to produce very heavy rain today (from 6-12 inches) as the system moves inland and interacts with the mountains of Mexico.

Our weather remains very pleasant for mid-October. Another mild, dry day is expected across the region before low pressure moves north from the Carolina's and brings an increased threat for rain. Clouds will be thickening an lowering all day with rain spreading from south to north across New York and Vermont and into Quebec by early Thursday morning. We will have a break in the action late Thursday before another front and low pressure area from Ontario bring showers and thunderstorms for Friday. The weekend looks showery and windy with temperatures closer to normal.

Tuesday, October 11, 2011

A little cooler

After a splendid weekend that featured abundant sunshine and temperatures at least 10 degrees above normal for Thanksgiving, it is back to reality this week, albeit slowly. A back door cold front spread some clouds yesterday across southern Quebec in the morning and eastern Ontario during the afternoon hours. That did little to affect the temperatures yesterday as once again most regions were at least 22C with several areas up to 24C and higher. Ottawa reached 24C and Toronto 26C. This morning we have noticeably cooler air in place at only 8C to start the day, even cooler in outlying regions away from water and the metro areas. Some fog has formed as well in response to the longer and cooler nights. It will be sunny again today and mild at 18C. Then the stage is set for a long period of poor weather with lowering temperatures.

Low pressure on the Florida coast this morning that produced heavy rain this weekend along with strong winds will slowly move northeast into Georgia and the Carolinas. The system, which really should have been named, will begin to affect southern Quebec and New England by Thursday and into the weekend with showers at first and then a steady rain and increasing winds. Temperatures will also fall to at or below normal by Saturday.

HURRICANE JOVA: One other important note this morning - Hurricane Jova, a major category 3 hurricane with 115mph is heading towards the southwest Mexican coast today. Jova is moving northeast at 6mph, about 130 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Normally hurricanes on the Pacific side of Mexico turn towards the west and begin to weaken over open waters. This storm is responding to a low pressure trough to the north and is moving east towards the coast. Landfall is expected today with high surf, flash floods and strong winds. Warnings are in place, and evacuations have been ordered. This will become a big weather story over the next 48 hours as flash flooding rains spread inland into central and northern Mexico and perhaps the US southwest.

Saturday, October 08, 2011

Indian Summer

Warm and sunny weather is the rule across Ontario, Quebec and New England this weekend. Strong high pressure is producing warm southwest winds with temperatures at least 10 degrees above normal. Officially Indian Summer is two or three days of above normal temperatures after the first frost. Most regions in southern Quebec were near the freezing mark this past week with a hard freeze in several regions outside the city and in the mountains. Here on Ile Perrot we had temperatures very close to 0C on Thursday morning with frost scattered on the ground and roofs of homes. But there is no frost in the air this weekend as late August conditions are expected. Temperatures will soar to between 20 and 26C across the area on all three days with nothing but sun. At noon today, Montreal is already 21C, the normal high for today is 14C.

Enjoy the Holiday weekend and be safe.

Wednesday, October 05, 2011

Frost Warning

Major flooding in Salem, Mass yesterday morning. Heavy rain dumped 4 to 6 inches in Boston and across the metro area Monday night.

It looks like may parts of southern Quebec will have their first frost tonight especially off island to the north and south of metro Montreal. Environment Canada has posted a frost warning for all our regions for overnight lows into Thursday morning between 0 and 4C. That is the bad news, the good news is the weekend forecast is spectacular for all outdoor activities from apple picking to foliage viewing and even bike ridding. Temperatures on southwest wind and bright sunshine will soar to well above normal readings with highs from 19 to 25C right into early next week.

The news is not great everywhere. A major low pressure area over Atlantic Canada will produce high winds and heavy rain across the Gaspe, lower North Shore and most of the Maritimes including Newfoundland. Further north and west winter storm warnings are in effect for southeast Labrador. A total of 20 to 30 centimetres is expected inland and over higher terrain, most notably for the section of the trans Labrador highway from Red Bay to the Charlottetown junction. Not to leave out the west a major storm moving into southern California is producing the first major snow event over the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada Mountains.

Tuesday, October 04, 2011

Sunshine and warm weather on the way

After what seems like an eternity of low clouds, rain and drizzle in Quebec and Ontario, skies will clear starting tonight. We have one more day of drizzle and cool temperatures as low pressure, that has been stalled over the Great Lakes for two weeks, finally moves east. In its place will be strong high pressure that will usher in warm temperatures into the Thanksgiving Day weekend. Temperatures will soar under sunshine to well above normal reaching 24C on Saturday. The sunshine and warm weather will last well into Monday.

OPHELIA: Yesterday tropical storm Ophelia made landfall on the Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland at around 9:30am local time. The storm produced strong winds up to 100km/h and heavy rain at the rate of 20mm an hour for several hours. The immediate coastline was the hardest hit with flooding, evacuations and some roads washed out. Much less rainfall occurred east and west of the storm track with only a few millimetres in other parts of the region. Powerful surf and surge affected the area and offshore waters as well with waves on the Grand Banks as high as 22 metres. A surge of 30-60cm (1-2 feet) was reported along the immediate coast and in bays and harbours. The area will receive a brief break before another intense non-tropical low pressure area affects Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. Another round of strong winds, heavy rain and a dangerous storm surge is possible with this storm starting Wednesday. In addition to the rain, portions of western Newfoundland and Labrador will have their first significant snow of the season.

****Ophelia will continue moving rapidly northeast today and begin to affect the UK by this evening. You can read more about that and the record heatwave they just had HERE.

Monday, October 03, 2011

Ophelia in Newfoundland

Ophelia rapidly crossing Newfoundland this morning.

Ophelia continues to be torn apart this morning by strong wind shear and very cold 13C waters off the coast of Newfoundland. The storm has become post tropical with winds spreading out from the center, however the strongest winds remain offshore south and east of the center. That being said it is still windy on the Avalon this morning. Ophelia is rapidly moving northeast at 65km/h with 110km/h winds. So far Sagona Island has reported a gust to 83km/h with Cape Race at 78km/h and St John's at 65km/h. Waves are pounding the coastal areas in both Newfoundland and Nova Scotia. A surge of 1 to 2 feet is possible in bays and harbours along the Avalon this morning with seas building to 5 to 7 metres. Rainfall will only last 4 to 6 hours but could produce 75mm locally. Winds and seas will slowly subside later today.

Sunday, October 02, 2011

SNOW in October

Snow is falling in the upper elevations of West Virginia this morning (

It is amazing to me after all these years following weather just how quickly things can change. We just came off a week of record heat and humidity in many regions across North America and we are talking snow on October 2nd. A swirling area of low pressure located over the middle Atlantic is drawing moisture into the northeast and cold northerly winds across the Great Lakes on the western edge of the system. There is no mistaking this morning what season it is. A cold rain or drizzle is occurring across the lower lakes and into the Ohio Valley and Appalachians. Across portions of Pennsylvania and West Virginia snow is falling with several inches accumulating at higher elevations. A steady, cold rain is falling in the interior portions of New England and Quebec.

Here in Montreal we are at 9C with a very cold northerly wind at 45km/h and moisture approaching the city from the southeast. Look for a rainy, windy and cold 24 hours ahead of us. In Ontario it is even colder this morning with Toronto down to 5C and Hamilton 4C.

Above Hurricane Ophelia and the large upper level low are well displayed on the Environment Canada satellite image.

Meanwhile a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for coastal areas of southeast Newfoundland including the Avalon Peninsula. Ophelia is a category 2 hurricane with 125mph winds about 1220 km southwest of Cape Race. The storm is expected to pass close to the Newfoundland coast with high winds up to 100km/h and heavy rain, up to 75mm. Waves and seas are building today across Atlantic Canada and could reach 5 to 7 metres in Newfoundland. Ophelia is racing northeast at 30 mph and will approach Newfoundland early Monday.