A snowy and icy end to the decade for Montreal

It took until New Year's Eve for the ground to turn white in Montreal. Over 15cm of snow fell across southern Quebec on Tuesday, accompanied by ice pellets, freezing rain and 50km/h winds. (ValleyWeather Photo)

Montreal received over 15cm of snow late Monday into early Tuesday as a winter storm moved across the Great Lakes and into Quebec. The same storm delivered over 22 hours of freezing rain to Ottawa and portions of eastern Ontario. Montreal also received about 7mm of freezing rain, with more towards Vaudreuil and Valleyfield. The freezing rain resulted in numerous accidents and scattered power outages. Numerous flights were cancelled at Trudeau Airport. Joliette was the provincial winner with this storm, measuring 28cm of  fresh snow.

Winds gusted over 100km/h as the low pressure moved across southern Ontario. While Montreal remained on the cold side of the system, warm air surged into southern Ontario. Toronto reached a record breaking high of 10.2C (50F) on Monday, surpassing the previous high of  7.2C (45F) established in 1965.

Light snow continues to fall across southern Quebec this New Year's Eve, along with very mild temperatures. Another 2 to 5cm is possible overnight. Mild air will persist throughout this week and into the upcoming weekend. Another round of mixed precipitation is likely by Friday across southern Quebec. Cold air will finally return by the end of the weekend and into next week, with more opportunities for accumulating snow.

Have a safe and happy new year, see you in the new decade and thanks for reading!

Freezing rain covering southern Quebec and eastern Ontario

Road conditions are poor today across southwestern Quebec and eastern Ontario, especially along Highways 20 and 401, shown above. 
(Photo via Twitter@carolin3aklor)

Freezing rain and snowfall warnings in effect for southern Quebec.

Travel is extremely dangerous Monday on highways outside of Montreal due to a combination of freezing rain, snow and strong winds. This is especially true south and west of the city.

A complex weather system consisting of an elongated warm front as well as low pressure over Michigan and a secondary low developing off the New England coast, will send waves of precipitation over southern Quebec and eastern Ontario over the next 36 hours.

The winter storm forecast for southern Quebec is turning out to be more ice than snow at this time. Temperatures are well below freezing as rain continues to fall Monday morning. This is not a surprise to me as I thought the snow amounts were overdone for our region. That being said, the the freezing rain should change to snow this afternoon and continue into Tuesday. Snowfall accumulations for Montreal, should be in the 10-15cm range, along with 5 to 10mm of ice.

Freezing rain mixed with ice pellets have been falling here on Ile Perrot since 7a.m. this morning. Further southwest, ice amounts are impressive with close to 10mm in Cornwall. The freezing rain has resulted in power outages across eastern Ontario, with 18,000 Hydro One customers in the dark as of 10a.m. Hydro Quebec is reporting 3500 without power, but the storm is only a few hours old in Quebec.

Precipitation is forecast to persist into New Years Eve. The weather should improve by New Years Day.

Strong winter storm to impact Ontario and Quebec

An icy landscape Saturday morning after 6mm of freezing rain fell on Friday across metro Montreal. The ice resulted in numerous accidents and an upswing in broken bones at local emergency rooms. Urgences Sante reported  dozens of calls for ice related injuries across the Montreal region. (Valley Weather)

A complex winter storm will move across the Great Lakes and into Ontario over the next 48 hours. This system will bring a wide mix of precipitation from heavy snow to ice pellets, freezing rain and eventually rain for some locations. The hardest hit regions will be from central Ontario into southwestern Quebec.

An approaching warm front from the southwest will run into slightly colder air trapped at the surface, as was the case on Friday. Freezing rain is forecast to develop this afternoon and this evening along the 401 corridor from Kingston to the Quebec border and north into the Ottawa Valley. Some locations may receive up to 20mm in ice accretion. This amount could easily result in widespread tree damage and power outages.

An ice storm is likely across eastern Ontario into extreme southwest Quebec and the Adirondacks of New York.. Up to 20mm of ice is possible, which would result in power outages. (AccuWeather.com)

In Montreal, the forecast is a little more difficult at this time. Southwestern Quebec will be right on the line between freezing rain and heavy snow. At this time, 15 to 25cm of snow is possible late tonight into Monday, along with strong winds out of the northeast, up to 50km/h. A slight shift in the warm front would bring heavy freezing rain or ice pellets (sleet) into Montreal.

Montreal will remain on the dividing line between heavy snow and freezing rain. This is subject to change over the next 12 to 24 hours. If precipitation remains as all snow, over 20cm is possible for the city. Avoid any travel Monday if at all possible. (AccuWeather.com)

At this time, freezing rain warnings are in effect in central and eastern Ontario. Winter storm warnings and winter weather advisories are posted for northern New York and Vermont. Montreal remains under a special weather statement, but warnings will likely be issued for some regions of Quebec by later this afternoon.

All travel in southwest Quebec and southern Ontario should be avoided overnight and Monday if at all possible. The precipitation will changeover to light snow across all regions on New Years Eve. Temperatures will remain mild into the first week of the new year, with the arctic air trapped over northern Canada. Daytime highs will continue well above normal, from -1C to 2C through the end of the upcoming week. Overnight lows will range from -5C to 0C during the period. Colder air will arrive by the second week of the month.

Freezing rain followed by another storm late Sunday

A stronger winter storm will approach the Great lakes on Sunday, with widespread rain, freezing rain and snow expected. Stronger winds are also likely in Montreal with this next storm. (AccuWeather.com)

Freezing Rain Warning in effect for Montreal.
Freezing rain will begin within the next hour across southwestern Quebec.

A warm front is currently lifting across eastern Ontario this evening, along with a push a milder air and some light precipitation. A mix of snow and freezing rain is expected in Montreal this evening into the overnight hours before changing to showers Friday morning. A freezing rain warning is in effect for southern Quebec and parts of eastern Ontario, including metro Montreal and Ottawa. Amounts of 2 to 5mm of freezing precipitation are possible. Roads will become very slippery and dangerous this evening, especially at the onset of the precipitation. Travel conditions will improve Friday morning.

Northeast winds are trapping colder air here in the St. Lawrence Valley, with the temperature currently at the high for the day of -4.4C. Temperatures will rise overnight, going above freezing by daybreak, reaching a high of 4C (39F) Friday. A cold front will move across the region late Friday, expect slightly cooler air for Saturday and Sunday, with daytime highs near 0C (32F).

Winter Storm late Sunday
A stronger storm system will arrive in the central Great Lakes by Sunday evening, once again travelling west of Montreal. Another warm surge of air is expected, with mixed precipitation possibly changing to rain. This forecast is a little more complicated than the current one, with a second low forecast to develop in southern New England. The second system may keep colder air trapped in both the St. Lawrence and Ottawa Valley well into Monday. The result may be heavier snow or perhaps an extended period of freezing rain. If you have any travel plans late Sunday and Monday, pay close attention to the latest forecasts and any watches and warnings that may be issued.

Another green Christmas for Montreal

The winter of 1970-1971 was historic in Montreal, with over 50cm of snow on the ground by Christmas Day 1970.

Whether you like it or not, there will be little to no snow on the ground for Christmas morning in Montreal. With the temperature hovering around 7C (45F) Monday afternoon, most of the snow is now gone, with the exception of a few dirty patches here and there. We did not have much to begin with, as only 13.4 cm has fallen this month at Trudeau Airport, the normal should be close to 50cm. We had more snow on the ground across most of Canada in November than we do now. Many major cities across southern Canada will have no snow this holiday season.

As I write this, I am looking out my office window at basically a brown landscape. This seems to becoming more normal with each passing year, far from the winters of my youth in the 1970s.

Taking a brief look back at the stats over the last decade indicates a sad reality for those who prefer a white Christmas. The average amount of snow on the ground on December 25th since 2010 has been a paltry 6.0cm in Montreal. On four occasions, 2014, 2015, 2018 and again this year, we have had no snow. According to Environment Canada, a white Christmas is defined as 2cm or more on the ground as of 7am, December 25th.

The most snow on the ground in Montreal on Christmas Day was 51cm during the historic winter of 1970-1971 when a total of 380cm fell for the season. In December 1970, as much as 64cm of snow was on the ground. Speaking of the 70's, we had a white Christmas each year from 1970 through 1978. In 1979, the streak came to an end, with 21.3mm of rain falling on the 25th.

As far as 2019 is concerned, mild weather Monday will be replaced by much cooler air for Tuesday through Thursday. Skies will be partly cloudy, with temperatures ranging from -9C to -12C for lows and -2C to -5C for daytime highs. Travel conditions will be ideal through Thursday. The next change for precipitation arrives overnight into Friday morning along a warm front. A mix of rain, freezing rain and snow is possible, but amounts should be fairly light.

Strong low pressure to impact southern Ontario & Quebec

Strengthening low pressure will move from the middle Atlantic region into southern Quebec by tonight. Very mild air will result in rain for much of southern Quebec. Much colder air returns late tonight and Sunday, with perhaps a few centimetres of snow. (AccuWeather.com)

Widespread rainfall and freezing rain warnings are in effect early Saturday morning as deepening low pressure lifts north from Maryland towards the Champlain Valley later today. The storm is carrying abundant moisture with it, with up to 25mm of rain forecast across the region. Temperatures are hovering near the freezing point this morning, with 0.9C here on Ile Perrot, with 5mm of rain falling so far. They will warm today as gusty southeast winds develop, up to 5C (41F).

The storm will continue to strengthen as it approaches the Vermont/Quebec border late tonight and moves into eastern Quebec Sunday. As it does so, much colder air will begin to wrap around the backside of the system and into Ontario and southwestern Quebec. Rain should begin to change to snow late this afternoon in Ontario and tonight in Montreal. Snowfall amounts will range from 2 to 3cm in Montreal, to as much as 10cm in parts of the St. Lawrence Valley of Ontario and New York. Roads will become slick as temperatures head below freezing and down to -7C by Sunday afternoon.

In addition to the colder temperatures, winds will increase out of the west and northwest, up to 70km/h into Sunday.

Further north and west across portions of central Quebec, heavy snow and freezing rain are forecast with as much as 30cm expected. Travel conditions are extremely poor today in those regions.

Precipitation will taper off to flurries early Sunday, along with blustery and colder conditions. The colder air is with us now through Christmas Day, with a few chances for light snow, but no major storms on the horizon for Montreal at this time.

Warm and wet storm on the horizon for Montreal

Last weekends storm just missed Montreal, but was one for the record books in central New York state, with 57cm falling in Albany, New York. 

Montreal is on the northern edge of a clipper system passing across southern Ontario into upstate New York early Friday. If thats sounds familiar it is because the storm is following the same track of last weekends epic snowstorm. This system is much weaker, spreading 5 to 10cm of snow along its path, with just a few snow showers across southwestern Quebec. Areas along a line from Vaudreuil through to the Ontario border and points south may pic up a quick 2cm of snow on Friday.

The storm that missed Montreal last weekend dumped up to 2 feet of snow across central New York and southern New England. It also created treacherous road conditions in southern Ontario, with three fatal accidents reported. Albany, New York measured its eighth largest snowstorm on record, with 22.6 inches of snow (57.4cm), falling over a 48 hour period. It was that cities largest snowstorm since the March 1993 superstorm. Seven New York counties were placed under a state of emergency, with schools closed for two days and thousands of flight cancelations. Hundreds of accidents were reported across the southern tier of New York into the Mohawk and Hudson Valley

For a comparison, Montreal had 40cm during the March 1993 superstorm, but not one flake fell this time. Snow fell up to and along the US/Canada border as well as in Ontario, the Gaspe and Atlantic Canada.

Warm Winter Storm
The next system on the horizon will a warm one despite the cold weekend ahead for Montreal. On Monday, much warmer air will surge into the St. Lawrence Valley, as a strengthening storm moves across the Great Lakes. Rain is forecast in Montreal, with perhaps some spotty freezing rain at the onset. Precipitation amounts will vary across the region, with a general 10-20mm of rain likely. Temperatures will be very warm early next week, 5 to 7C (40-45F) Monday and Tuesday. A strong cold front arrives late Tuesday night, with much colder and windy weather expected on Wednesday. Temperatures will plummet down to -11C (12F) on Wednesday. Any leftover rain will change to light snow before ending. Briefly looking beyond next week, another big storm is likely by the middle of the month. Depending on which model you prefer, this could be our white Christmas. Time will tell.

Temperatures across the southern portion of Quebec were frigid this November.

One final note, November 2019 was the coldest on record at Trudeau Airport, dating back to 1941. The mean monthly temperatures was -1.4C, well below the normal of 2.5C. We also threw in 32cm of snow, compared to the normal of 19cm.

Major winter storm to miss Montreal

Montreal will remain on the northern edge of a winter storm that has spread snow from California to Maine. (AccuWeather)

Cold weather will prevail through Sunday across southern Quebec, as the region remains on the northern edge of a strong winter storm. The storm in question has been producing heavy snow, strong winds and severe weather from California into the Great Lakes and across the deep south, during the busy Thanksgiving travel week in the US.

Sunday will be no different as low pressure moves towards Lake Ontario, while a second stronger storm develops off the New Jersey coast and slowly moves into Atlantic Canada. The combination of the two storm systems, will spread heavy snow and freezing rain from the upper Midwest into the Ohio Valley, Ontario and across the northeast.

Montreal can expect increasing clouds this afternoon along with gusty northeast winds up to 40km/h. Temperatures will be cold with, with a high of -5C (23F). Only a few flurries are expected from the storm, with the best chance for that along the Ontario and New York borders.

If you have any travel plans along Highway 401 towards Toronto, Ottawa or south along Interstate 87 into New York, Boston or New England, expect poor conditions with snow and gusty winds. Snow accumulations of 5 to 20cm are forecast in Ontario today, with 10-30cm across New York and New England this afternoon and Monday.

On Monday, skies should clear in Montreal, along with near normal temperatures, with a high of -4C (25F) and a low of -10C (14F). The next system arrives by Wednesday, with a chance for some light snow in Montreal.

There is more snow on the ground in many parts of southern California on December 1st, than there is in southern Quebec. (Caltrans Photo)

Montreal recorded 31.6cm of snow at Trudeau Airport for the month of November. Despite this, only patches remain on the ground. In reality, there is more snow on the ground in several location in southern California, New Mexico and Arizona than in Montreal.