Winter to make a return to Montreal this weekend

After a prolonged cold snap in January and a roller coaster February, roads are in brutal condition across the Montreal region. Massive potholes and sinkholes have damaged numerous cars and caused several accidents. Crews have been filling them, but new ones appear just as quickly. You can blame it on the fierce freeze and thaw cycle over the last few weeks, along with deep frost this year and steady precipitation over the last 10 days. Since March 1st, over 80mm of rain and snow have fallen at Trudeau Airport.

Perhaps the last shot of arctic air for the winter season is forecast to invade southern Quebec this Sunday. This will be quite a shock to the system after the springlike conditions over the last week. Before then we have a wet, chilly period of weather expected over the next 72 hours. Low pressure over the Great Lakes pushed a frontal boundary into the region overnight, accompanied by rain, ice pellets and pockets of freezing rain. I measured close to 25mm (1 inch) of precipitation on Île Perrot since just before midnight through 9am, with temperatures hovering just above the freezing point.

Thursday will be a breezy day, with scattered showers and a high near 7C (45F) for Montreal. A secondary area of low pressure will move along the east coast late Thursday pushing another wave of moisture into southern Quebec. Look for a mix of rain and snow across the St. Lawrence Valley into Friday morning, with an overnight low near 3C (38F). Both Friday and Saturday will be cloudy and cool, with scattered showers.

Arctic Blast

On Sunday, a strong arctic cold front will sweep across the region, accompanied by some snow, with 1 to 4cm possible across southern Quebec. Temperatures will drop dramatically into the minus teens both Sunday and Monday night. Strong northwest winds late Sunday and Monday, will result in windchill values as low as -20C. The overnight lows will be in the -10C (14F) to -15C (5F) range. Monday will feel brutally cold for late March, with strong winds and a high of only -6C (21F). Temperatures will moderate by mid-week.

Wet weekend for Montreal after record warmth

A sure sign of spring across southern Quebec, as the geese are starting to return. Montreal reached a record high of 15.8C on Thursday afternoon. More mild weather and rain are forecast for the upcoming weekend. Spring arrives at 11:33AM on Sunday morning.

Thursday was a spectacular day, feeling more like mid spring than late winter. A southwest breeze and bright sunshine allowed the temperature to reach a record-breaking high of 15.8C (61F) in Montreal, surpassing the previous benchmark for the date of 14.4C (57F) set in 2010. A weak cold front settled south across the region overnight, so Friday will not be as warm, but sunny and mild nevertheless, reaching 11C (52F).

Developing low pressure over the US Midwest will arrive over the weekend, with rain expected Saturday, and a showery first day of spring for Sunday. Clouds will increase late Friday, followed by rain overnight into Saturday. The rain will become more scattered in nature Saturday afternoon into Sunday. In total, Montreal can expect 15 to 20mm of precipitation. Gusty winds are likely on Saturday as well, out of the northeast at 20 to 40km/h. We will have a damp and chilly high of 7C (45F), but this is still above the long-term average of  3C (38F). 

There is a risk of freezing rain and wet snow ell northeast of Montreal towards Quebec City, so keep this in mind if your travel take you in that direction on Saturday. Despite the mild air, there is always a chance of more wintry precipitation as we end March and start April. At this time however, our forecast looks mild, with no major storms on the horizon.

Increased snowmelt and the expected precipitation this weekend, will have water flow and ice conditions on area rivers and lakes highly variable. The best advice is stay off the ice and out of the water in the Montreal region.

Less snow expected for Montreal as storm slides east

A late winter storm will bring 10 to 30cm of snow to much of southern Quebec on Saturday.

Friday will be the calm before a late season snowstorm impacts the region. Latest model data suggests the center of the low will move from Louisiana towards southeastern New England on Saturday. This track takes the storm a little more eastward than 24 hours ago. The result will be less snow for Montreal and eastern Ontario.

Snow will begin by 7pm Friday evening in Montreal and taper off Saturday afternoon. At this time, a general 10 to 15cm is expected for the city, more as you head southeast towards the Eastern Townships, where a winter storm warning is in effect. Warnings are also in effect for most of northern New England and New York. Snowfall amounts will range from 7 to 15cm across eastern Ontario, and 20 to 30cm for northern New England, New York and the Townships.

The storm will deepen rapidly on Saturday, resulting in strong northwest winds developing, in excess of 50km/h during the afternoon hours in the St. Lawrence Valley. This will produce areas of blowing and drifting snow as well as isolated power outages. Winds will only diminish Sunday morning. Temperatures will be close to the freezing point in Montreal for the next 24 hours, before dropping to -5C (23F) by late Saturday afternoon. The snow will be wet and heavy at the onset of precipitation, but become dry and fluffy by late Saturday, allowing it to blow around more.

Expect poor travel on Saturday, especially south and east of metro Montreal.

This storm has far reaching effects, with weather warnings in place from the Gulf of Mexico to Atlantic Canada.

Snowstorm likely for southern Quebec on Saturday

The biggest snowstorm of the season may impact Montreal on Saturday with heavy snow and strong winds. (ValleyWeather Photo)

Winter storm expected to impact Montreal late Friday into Saturday.

A hint of spring is in the air as I write this blog, with warm March sunshine pushing the temperature to 4C (39F) in Montreal. But March can be a cruel weather month, and winter is not over just yet. Confidence is growing that a strong winter storm will impact southern Quebec this coming weekend. If the forecast holds true, it could be the biggest storm of the winter for the city.

Low pressure is forecast to develop over southern Texas on Friday, tapping into warm, moist Gulf of Mexico air while moving northeast. At the same time, cold, arctic air is forecast to push south across the Great Lakes. The combination of those key ingredients will allow the storm to intensify rapidly as it moves northward along the eastern seaboard and into Atlantic Canada by Sunday.

Strong low pressure is forecast develop Saturday along the east coast and move towards Atlantic Canada. Heavy snow is expected to fall across southern Quebec along with strong winds. (AccuWeather.com)

Montreal will remain on the cold side of the storm, with snow developing late Friday and persisting into Saturday. The snow will be heavy at times, with amounts well in excess of 15cm possible for Montreal. Some models have 20 to 30cm falling across southern Quebec. Accompanying the snow will be strong winds, with gusts over 70km/h possible. This will create widespread blowing and drifting snow.

There are still many details to iron out such as the timing and exact track of the storm, but at this time, plan for very poor travel for at least 36 hours across the region. Skies will clear Sunday, but it will be windy and cold. Milder, calm weather returns to start next week.

Spring mix of freezing rain, snow and thunderstorms

A light glaze of freezing rain is expected early Sunday morning in Montreal before temperatures soar to record-breaking highs in the low teens. A cold front will deliver strong winds and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. On Monday, another area of low pressure will pass south of the city, with a period of wet snow likely. 

Freezing Rain Warning in effect for metro Montreal for early Sunday. 

A strong spring weather system is moving across the Great Lakes early Sunday morning, forecast to pass well north of Montreal today. An elongated warm front will lift across the region this morning, allowing record-braking warm air to surge north into southern Quebec and Ontario. Along the warm front, a brief period of freezing rain is possible early Sunday morning, with just a light glaze expected for Montreal.

Once the front clears the region, temperatures will soar, with a forecast high of 12C (54F) for both Montreal and Ottawa, and 19C (66F) for Toronto. A high of 12C would be a new record for Montreal for the date, surpassing the previous benchmark of 10C (50F) set in 1974.

A trailing cold front will arrive in southern Quebec by late afternoon or early evening, accompanied by scattered showers and a risk of the first thunderstorm of  2022. Storms were scattered along the front Saturday afternoon, including a powerful cell that produced and EF-3 tornado near Des Moines, Iowa. The storm caused widespread damage, injuries and at least 6 fatalities. The National Weather Service estimates winds exceeded 215km/h with the storm.

While we are not expecting severe storms in our region, strong winds will mix down to the surface along and ahead of the cold front Sunday afternoon. Wind warnings are in effect for portions of Ontario and New York state, and they may be extended into southern Quebec. Gusts of 50 to 70km/h are expected in Montreal, and up to 100km/h along the shoreline of Lake Ontario into portions of the southern St. Lawrence Valley.

The cold front will clear the region this evening, with temperatures settling back down to 0C (32F). On Monday, low pressure will pass just south of Montreal along the front, with a swath of wet snow expected north of the center. Portions of southern Quebec and eastern Ontario can expect up to 5cm of wet snow by late Monday.

High pressure will move into the region Tuesday, with clearing skies and slightly cooler temperatures. The high will be near -1C (30F).

Active weather pattern for Montreal to begin March

Public works crews and private contractors have been rather busy over the last two weeks cleaning up snow from multiple storms in Montreal. This photo was taken in front of my childhood home on LaSalle Boulevard in Verdun. (Photo - Peter Storey)

February is in the history books, and spring is just around the corner. The month ended with 104mm of total precipitation, well above the normal of 63mm. In that amount was 54cm of snow, also above normal. That was a Trudeau Airport, many neighbouring regions reported even more snowfall, and as a result, the banks are sitting pretty high for early March.

Despite it being meteorological spring as of March 1st, winter weather remains in our future. This week, the Montreal region has already received between 10 and 15cm of new snow, and another storm is on the horizon.

We will end the week under a ridge of high pressure, with sunny skies but cold temperatures for early March. The high Thursday has already been reached and temperatures will remain steady around -10C (14F) or slowly fall. The normal high should be 0C (32F) and low -9C (16F). The forecast low tonight in Montreal is -17C (2F). Temperatures will slowly moderate on Saturday as clouds increase along a warm front. By Saturday evening, we can expect a light mix of snow and freezing rain, along with warming temperatures. Sunday will feature light rain and a very mild high of 10C (50F) for southern Quebec.

As the low pressure in question lifts north of the city Sunday afternoon, it will drag a cold front across the St. Lawrence Valley. Temperatures will fall back to the freezing point for Monday. At the same time another low pressure area will move from the central US towards New England and pass south of Montreal. This system will bring snow to the region, but the timing and amounts have yet to be determined.

Briefly looking ahead through the middle of March, we can expect below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation.