Quiet weather to end the year in Montreal

Just a dusting of snow was all we could manage across most of southern Quebec this holiday season, as record warmth stretched from coast to coast. You had a better chance of golfing on Christmas Day than skiing. The image above was taken on December 22 on Ile Perrot. The snow melted quickly as temperatures rose above freezing Christmas Eve and remained there through December 29th. (Valley Weather Photo)

Happy New Year and thank you for reading. Valley Weather is set to enter year number 45, starting in 1979. This year will end rather quietly on the weather front across southern Quebec. Cloudy skies prevail this New Years Eve as a clipper system skirts to our southwest, with much colder temperatures than we have been accustomed to. 

The current temperature as I write is -5C (23F) in Montreal, with a hint of snow in the air. The forecast calls for cloudy skies, a few flurries and a chilly overnight low of -9C (16F). The New Year will start with perhaps a few sunny breaks, and a high of -6C (21F). Looking ahead, the week will be quiet, with above freezing temperatures expected once again by Tuesday. By next weekend, colder air will return, with a chance of some snow as a storm system moves along the east coast. There are still many details to work out, so stay tuned.

Thank you El Nino! An Environment Canada map showing temperature anomalies for this December. The entire country was above normal, with numerous locations recording their warmest December on record.  

December has been warm. Numerous locations across Canada have either had their warmest or second warmest month on record. Snow cover is sparse across the country, largely confined to northern areas. Here in Montreal, the average temperature to date is 1.9C (35.4F), well-above the normal of -5.4C (22.3F). As far as precipitation is concerned, we measured 41.4cm of snowfall, most of that falling over a two day period at the start of the month. Rainfall sits at an impressive 102.2mm, just shy of the all time record for the month. On average by December 31st, Montreal has 10cm of snow on the ground, with Quebec City at 34cm. Both are reporting zero snow cover today.

If you thought 2023 was warm in Montreal, you would be correct. The average temperature for the year sits at 8.7C (47.6F), the warmest recorded at Trudeau Airport, dating back to 1942. We beat the record set recently in 2021, of 8.65C (47.5F).

The weather was wild this past year coast to coast, from widespread forest fires and dense smoke, to our April ice storm and a sprinkling of severe weather in between. A total of 86 tornadoes were observed, 10 reported here in Quebec. We managed a record wet July here in southern Quebec, and the warmest summer experienced by Canadians, from sea to sea to sea.

Green, wet and warm holiday season in Montreal

A snowless nativity scene on Boxing Day in Vaudreuil-Dorion. Despite an early December snowstorm, no snow was left for the holidays across the Montreal region. That and very mild temperatures has curtailed most outdoor winter activities. The snowless weather has however, allowed for much better travel conditions than last Christmas. (Valley Weather Photo)

Happy Holidays, Merry Christmas and a very Happy New Year to all my readers.

It certainly does not look or feel like the holiday seasons I was accustomed to as a child growing up in the 1970s. This week has been rather dreary, with a damp northeast wind, and temperatures well-above the freezing point. The temperature has been above freezing since the wee hours of December 24th. December has been warm overall, despite the snowstorm on the 3rd of the month. High temperatures have been above 0C (32F) on 17 of the 27 days to date.

This has resulted in no snow cover at all in the Montreal region, just a dreary brown landscape. Low level moisture is been dominating the weather over the last week, with plenty of drizzle, cloud cover and areas of dense fog. To make matters even more unpleasant, a damp northeast wind has prevailed most of the week.

This years green Christmas was the sixth in the last ten years at Trudeau Airport. Since 1955 when data for such things began, Montreal has recorded 19 years with no snow for Christmas Day. A white Christmas is determined by the presence of at least 2cm of snow on the ground Christmas morning.

So if you are keeping track, there has been snow on Christmas Day in Montreal 72.06% of the time over the last 68 years. The decade of the 1970s was special if you like snowy winters. Only December 25, 1971 and 1979 had no snow on the ground. That represented an 80 percent chance of snow on December 25, which has now dropped to just 60 percent. 

We can debate about it the reason why, but the reality is that our Decembers are warming. So forget about outdoor skating, sledding or using the new snowshoes Santa brought you, at least for now. The next few days will be rather mild and grey, as we add to the monthly rainfall totals. To date, 90.8mm of rain has fallen at Trudeau Airport, well over the normal value of 38.8mm and closing in on the record of 111.9mm set in 1920.

As we look ahead, colder air will begin to arrive in southern Ontario and Quebec for the New Year. However it will only be marginally colder, as most of the country is well-above normal. The drizzle and showers of Thursday, will mix with some wet snow on Friday and Saturday. The weekend looks much the same at this time, with unsettled weather lingering. Temperatures will however be dropping back below freezing by New Years Eve and remaining there to begin January.

Heavy rain and record warmth forecast for Montreal Monday

Heavy rain and record warmth should wash away any memory of last weeks snowstorm in Montreal. Despite nearly 40cm of snow falling this month, many parts of southern Quebec are looking at a green Christmas.

Heavy rainfall warning in effect for southern Quebec, with flood watches posted across Vermont and northern New York State.

Despite what the calendar says, a windy, warm and wet storm is on the way to southern Quebec. Strengthening low pressure off the South Carolina coast is forecast to move northward to lie near Lake Champlain on Monday. Deep tropical moisture is producing torrential rain and strong thunderstorms along many parts of the east coast today. Steady rain will overspread southern Quebec Sunday night, becoming heavy at times Monday morning, and ending late in the day.

At this time, a track just to our east is expected, resulting in up to 50mm of rain for Montreal, with some locations north and east of the city possibly receiving more.  The heavy rain may result in some localized river and urban flooding. The rainfall record for Montreal on December 18 is 52.4mm set back in 1878. Unseasonably warm air will also be in place, with a current forecast low of 5C (41F). The high on Monday will be close to a record-breaking 10C (50F). The current record for the date is 5.7C (42F) set in 1996. We should easily break the record, likely very early in the day.

NWS radar image showing strong low pressure developing off the Florida coast in the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. This storm is moving rapidly north to lie near Lake Champlain late Monday afternoon.

As the storm moves northeast of Montreal, cooler air will move into the region. Any leftover precipitation will change over to light snow and persist into Tuesday. Some locations across far western Quebec and eastern Ontario may pick up a centimetre or two of accumulation. The temperature will drop to 0C (32F) by Tuesday morning, remaining fairly steady during the day.

Winds will become rather gusty Sunday evening, between 30 and 50km/h in the St. Lawrence Valley. Winds will back to the northwest between 20 and 40km/h Monday night persisting into Tuesday.

Wet, windy and warm weather expected for Montreal

Despite the calendar, temperatures are on the rise across most of North America. The last two weeks of December are expected to produce very mild temperatures and very little in the way of snowfall for the Montreal region. A big storm system Monday will bring windy and rainy conditions to most of southern Quebec.

Winter officially arrives on December 21st, but you would not know that by our current weather. As I write, the temperature in Montreal is already 4C (39F) on our way to at least 8C (48F) Friday. The normal high for today's date is -3C (27F). But our weather is anything but normal this fall and winter, and that trend will persist through at least the end of the month.

What does that mean for practical weather?  Well basically we are looking at well-above normal temperatures for most of North America through the holiday period. That starts today, with very strong high pressure anchored in the Atlantic, pumping unseasonably warm air northward.

Meanwhile a strong, almost tropical like system will develop in the Gulf of Mexico today, moving northward over the weekend with abundant moisture. During a typical winter and at this time of year, that track would result in a big snowstorm for parts of the east coast and Quebec. Bit, this is not the case this month. The storm will deepen and move rapidly northward towards New York state and eventually across eastern Quebec. After a mild weekend, we can expect clouds to increase Sunday, ahead of steady soaking rain Sunday night and Monday. This system will be a snow eater, devouring what is left of our snowpack here in the south and significantly reducing it further north. We will have to watch for any potential flooding from the combination of heavy rain and melting snow.

At this time, many parts of our region will likely see at least 25-35mm of rain. Gusty southeast winds may reach 50-70km/h late Sunday. Temperatures will be very warm, approaching 10C (50F) by Monday. A trailing cold front late in the day Monday will bring in marginally cooler air on northwest winds, with any leftover precipitation changing to flurries before ending Tuesday morning. Little accumulation is expected at this time.

The balance of the travel week before Christmas appears to be fair, with seasonable temperatures.

Winter storm to deliver a mix of precipitation across southern Quebec

Despite the mild fall, Montreal has already measured 42.6cm of snow at Trudeau Airport since November 1st. More snow is on the way over the next 24-36 hours for the city, but less than previously expected. Rain will change to wet snow Monday morning, with 5-10cm possible for Montreal, 2-4cm for Ottawa and 10-20cm for Sherbrooke.

Special Weather Statement in effect for Montreal. Additional weather warnings may be required later today for a portion of our region.

Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for upstate New York and Vermont.

A potent storm system will impact the eastern seaboard including southern Quebec over the next 24 to 36 hours. The guidance over the last 24 hours has shifted the heaviest precipitation to the east of Montreal, but we can still expect a messy Monday morning commute.

Light rain fell overnight in Montreal, with temperatures rising to 6C (43F) around 2am, but falling back to the current reading of 2C (36F) on a light northeast wind. A cold front advancing across Ontario, will be the focus for some heavy rain showers today, with as much as 25mm (1 inch) of rain possible. Along that front, low pressure will develop late today and move northeast to be near Boston on Monday. Enough cold air will filter into the region to change the rain over to wet snow late tonight.

The wet snow will move from west to east, impacting just about all of southern Quebec by Monday morning. The snow will be heavy at times, especially east of Montreal across the Eastern Townships and Beauce, as well as Vermont and parts of New England.

As far as amounts are concerned, we are looking at 5-10cm for the greater Montreal region, with 10-20cm for the Townships. Local accumulations may approach 30cm across the higher elevations along the Vermont border. Gusty northwest winds will develop Monday, between 30-50km/h. Theses winds will add stress to the snow loaded power lines, which may result in significant power outages in areas that see the heaviest snow. All precipitation should taper off to flurries by late in the day Monday.

As far as temperatures are concerned, the high Sunday in Montreal will be 6C (43F), dropping to 0C (32F) by Monday morning, and further dropping to -6C (21F) by Tuesday morning.

Expect difficult travel conditions early Monday morning, with rain changing to snow. The snow will be wet and heavy, with reduced visibility, especially along Highway 10 towards Sherbrooke.

This same storm system has been producing heavy rain, strong winds and severe thunderstorms from the Mississippi Valley towards the Ohio Valley and along the east coast. Tornadoes across Tennessee on Saturday have left at least 6 dead. The search continues Sunday morning for additional survivors and victims.

Heavy damage from a tornado in Madison, Tennessee late Saturday.
(Nashville Office of Emergency Management)

Another storm on the way for southern Quebec

We are in for another round of rain, wind and wet snow this Sunday into Monday morning across southern Quebec. There are still many details to work out, but the possibility exists for more tree damage and power outages as occurred this past Monday across the region and in Verdun, shown above. (J Balena)

A very complex weather scenario is expected for the upcoming weekend, that will include much milder air as well as a mix of precipitation. There are many moving parts to this forecast, so check back for updates. Before then, we will have one more chilly, damp day on Friday, with clouds, a few flurries, and a high temperature of -5C (23F).

Over the weekend, a deep trough will set up across the mid Mississippi Valley, with moisture and very warm air streaming northeast into the Great Lakes, Ontario and southern Quebec. Cloudy skies Saturday will yield to flurries and even some drizzle Saturday night and Sunday. Temperatures will rise above freezing Saturday to 2C (36F) and even milder Sunday at 5C (41F).

By Sunday, a strong cold front will begin moving across Ontario into western Quebec. Along and ahead of the front a surge of moisture will bring in excess of 25mm (1 inch) of rain to the Montreal region. With the rain and mild temperatures, we can expect significant snowmelt from last weeks storm. Some local flooding is possible.

By the evening hours, deepening low pressure will begin moving along the aforementioned front and across eastern New England. As the storm moves into Atlantic Canada, colder air will surge in behind, changing rain to wet snow. The changeover should occur Sunday evening in Montreal, with the potential for some significant snowfall in several parts of southern and western Quebec, including Montreal. Accompanying the precipitation on Sunday will be gusty southwest winds, that will back to the northwest and become strong late Sunday, up to 60km/h.

Precipitation will taper off by Monday morning. This storm has the potential to produce a mixed bag of dangerous weather, ranging from strong winds, heavy rain and flooding, to icy roads and possible power outages by Monday. Keep informed and watch for additional weather headlines and warnings that may be required at some point over the weekend.

Winter storm slams Montreal region with 30cm of snow

Montreal was slammed with heavy wet snow overnight. As of 8am Monday morning, 28cm had fallen at Trudeau Airport. Numerous trees have fallen from the weight of the snow, onto power lines and unfortunately for this resident in Verdun, cars as well. Power outages are climbing, with over 88,000 in the dark currently. (Photo: J. Balena)

Winter storm warning remains in effect for Montreal, but should be allowed to expire by mid morning.

The first big snowstorm of the season has over performed in the Montreal region. Moderate snow is still falling Monday morning, with nearly 28cm on the ground so far. The heavy wet snow has brought down trees on power lines, with over 88,000 Hydro-Quebec clients in the dark and cold this morning. This includes 8900 on the island of Montreal.

Roads are in terrible shape in metro Montreal. Highway 20 from Ile Perrot was snow covered, icy and visibility was very poor this morning. There have been numerous accidents in the Montreal region.

The storm was expected to bring mixed precipitation to Montreal. However most of that fell as snow, with amounts expected to exceed 30cm (1 foot) for the city.

The storm system in question lies just south of Montreal, with the dividing line between frozen and liquid precipitation along the US border. Many parts of New York and New England had rain or freezing rain. The same is true in Ontario. While Montreal measured over 20cm Sunday to midnight, Ottawa had only 1cm.

Montreal was the sweet spot for snow accumulation this time, as just enough cold air moved into the city on northeast winds. The temperature remained below freezing at the ground and aloft, ensuring wet snow and not freezing rain.

On Ile Perrot, freezing rain fell for the first few hours of the storm on Sunday afternoon, so my snow totals are about 5cm less than the Airport, located 20 kilometres northeast of my location.

 The snow will continue this morning, tapering off to flurries this afternoon. Conditions should improve the evening, but temperatures will drop. After a high of -2C (29F) today, the low by Tuesday morning will be -7C (19F). Storm totals for the city will likely exceed 30cm.

Warmer weather will return by next weekend, with rain in the forecast and high soaring to 6C (43F) by Saturday. Buckle up, it going to be a long El Nino winter!

Winter storm warning posted for southern Quebec

Light freezing rain is already falling Sunday afternoon across many parts of southern Quebec and Ontario. The precipitation should transition back to heavy wet snow this evening and overnight, with 10-15cm possible in Montreal, Ottawa, and Quebec City.

Winter Storm Warning for southwestern Quebec, eastern Ontario, the Adirondacks and Green Mountains. Winter weather advisory for northern New York and portions of Vermont.

Expect slick and dangerous travel conditions today through Monday morning.

A messy mix of precipitation is expected across southern Quebec and eastern Ontario over the next 24 hours. Low pressure over the Great Lakes will move just south of Montreal tonight, while a second area of low pressure develops along the New England coast and move northeast towards Atlantic Canada.

Precipitation has already overspread the region Sunday afternoon, with freezing rain and rain from Montreal southward, and wet snow north and east of the city. As marginally colder air filters into the St. Lawrence Valley late Sunday afternoon, all precipitation should change back to wet snow and become heavy at times overnight. A general 10 to 15cm is forecast for Montreal and Ottawa, with more north of the city and less south towards the US border.

Gusty northeast winds of 30-50km/h will accompany the snow, putting stress on tree limbs and power lines. Temperatures will remain nearly stationary throughout the period, around 0C (32F) for Montreal. As the precipitation tapers off to flurries Monday afternoon, temperature will drop, to lows of around -5C (23F) by Tuesday morning.

Expect icy and snow covered roads at times over the next 24 hours. I imagine the Monday morning commute will be very challenging, especially for those off island to the west, where the Iles aux Tourtes bridge is down to only one lane in each direction for the foreseeable future. Give yourself plenty of extra time.

Wintry weather returns to Montreal this weekend

A more wintry weather pattern will evolve this weekend into next week, with several chances for snowfall across the Montreal region. Temperatures will fall back below freezing. While temperatures will not be frigid, the weather will certainly be cold enough for frozen precipitation. (Valley Weather Photo)

December has started off very mild in Montreal Friday morning, with temperatures in the middle single digits. It was 8C (47F) on Ile Perrot this morning, the normal low for December 1 is -7C (19F).

The mild weather will persist today, along with cloud cover and eventually some steady rainfall. Highs will remain nearly steady before falling off this evening. A frontal system over the St. Lawrence Valley will become the dividing line between marginally colder air to the north, and unseasonably warm air to the south.

We have a very difficult forecast this weekend, with several of the computer models offering up very different solutions. Low pressure will move along the aforementioned front this afternoon, with widespread rainfall expected. As the low pressure moves past to our south, slightly cooler air will filter into the Montreal region, with rain changing to a period of wet snow and flurries late this evening. There is also a risk of freezing drizzle, especially in the valley locations.

On Saturday, temperatures will remain very close to the freezing point, with a mix of light snow and rain from north to south. The best chance for a few centimetres of accumulation will occur at the higher elevations north of Montreal and across the Townships. 

On Sunday, a stronger area of low pressure will move along the front, passing very close to Montreal. There is a chance that wet snow will develop in the afternoon, becoming heavy at times and persisting into Monday morning before mixing with rain once again. If precipitation falls as predominately snow, a good 10cm may accumulate in Montreal.

I imagine this forecast will change often as it has in the last 48 hours or so, moving back and forth between rain and snow as the main form of precipitation for Montreal. If you have any travel plans, pay close attention to the weekend forecast. I expect the Monday morning commute will be difficult for many parts of our region.

One thing that seems certain, the weather will turn colder next week, with highs remaining below freezing through Friday.