Environment and Climate Change Canada announces new weather warning guidelines

The devastating and historic 1998 Ice Storm here in Montreal would be an example of a Red Weather Warning under the new ECCC guidelines. (Hydro-Quebec)

On a day when a strong Great Lakes storm, a November Witch, is unleashing heavy lake effect snow, strong winds and towering waves, Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) announced it has established a new way of warning Canadiens about severe weather.

All weather warnings will now be accompanied by a colour code, Yellow, Orange or Red. Each level will describe the severity of the anticipated weather event as well as its impact on the general public. There is also a level of forecaster confidence attached to each colour as described in the public warning when issued by ECCC.

“We continue to experience more frequent and extreme weather in Canada, which makes it more important than ever for Canadians to have access to clear, accurate, and easy-to-understand weather alerts. By improving how severe weather is reported, we are helping Canadians better understand and prepare for potential impacts, so they can make informed decisions about how and when to protect themselves, their loved ones, and their property.”
according to The Honourable Julie Dabrusin, Minister of Environment and Climate Change.

A Yellow Warning is the most common type. Currently there are yellow warnings in effect for parts of central Ontario and Quebec for snow and blowing snow. Yellow warnings are used to describe severe weather events that are moderate in nature, localized and for a short-term. They would include most regular heavy snowfalls that occur here in the Montreal area, such as the 15-25cm events.

An Orange Warning will be less common and associated with a weather event that can be much more damaging or disruptive. They would include blizzards and severe thunderstorms or heavy lake effect snow events. Major widespread damage would be possible, along with disruptions lasting a few days. Orange warnings are in effect today for parts of the snow belt regions surrounding the Great Lakes.

Red Warnings will be rare. They will involve an elevated level in forecaster confidence for the event to produce life-threatening, extensive, prolonged and widespread damage. An example of this would be the 1998 Eastern Canadian Ice Storm or the Atmospheric River flooding in British Columbia in 2021.

Personally, I think any program that will provide more details to the general public regarding incoming severe weather, will be more than welcome.

The new guidelines came into effect on Wednesday, November 26, and is already being implemented for current forecasts.

Mild weather week followed by a significant pattern change for southern Quebec

Milder weather this past week has melted away most of the 25cm of snow that has fallen in Montreal this November. Much colder air along with more significant snow is possible by the first week of December. (Valley Weather)

We have a mild Monday morning in Montreal, but not without a few icy spots after Sunday's wet snow. On Sunday, another 1 to 2cm of snow fell on the city, bringing the monthly total to over 25cm. Last November we had none. The trend for snowy weather will return, but not until the first few days of December. Until then, we can expect a very mild week, with periods of light rain at times through Thursday. Skies will be mostly cloudy, but temperatures will be mild, with daytime highs between 3C and 7C (38F-45F) and overnight lows near the freezing point.

On Thursday, a strong cold front will will move across Ontario and Quebec, introducing the pattern change I mentioned in the title. Thursday will be very windy. Strong northwest winds behind the cold front may gust up to 70km/h across parts of Ontario and Quebec. That wind will deliver colder air to our region. Temperatures will drop to or below the freezing point. Those gusty winds will also turn on the Great Lakes snow machine, with winter storm watches already in effect for parts of central Ontario as well as western New York. They are being issued early in anticipation of the big travel period associated with the American Thanksgiving holiday.

For our region, only flurries are expected on Thursday and Friday, with perhaps a little more snow as you head down Highway 401 towards Brockville and Kington.

Much colder air and the chance for some significant snow are possible for the first week of December in Montreal, as a much more winter-like pattern begins to evolve. High temperatures are expected to be below freezing by the middle of next week and remain there for the foreseeable future.

Another snowy Monday morning commute in Montreal

Above the snowy construction zone on the approach to the new Iles-aux-Tourtes Bridge along Highway 40 in Senneville Monday morning. Roads are snow covered and extremely slipper, especially off island. The snow should taper off Monday morning after an additional 3-5cm. (Valley Weather)

Mother Nature seems to be dictating the terms this November, leaving meteorologists and us amateurs alike a little surprised at times. Over the weekend, more rain than freezing rain fell for most of us, despite expectations of up to 10mm of ice. In total, 8.6mm of liquid precipitation fell late Saturday into early Sunday, morning, followed by close to 5cm of snow for Montréal. Snowfall amounts were much higher east and northeast of the city, where 10 to 20cm fell.

The system in question is now located over Prince Edward Island, but the broad circulation around the deepening low pressure is driving cold northwest winds across the St. Lawrence Valley and Great Lakes, producing numerous snow showers. Some locations, especially around the Great Lakes and the upslope higher elevations of the Eastern Townships, Green Mountain and Adirondacks can expect in excess of 20cm of snow through Monday.

Here in Montreal, the snow has been steady early Monday morning, but should taper off quickly today, with perhaps another 3 to 5cm of snow expected for the city. Unless of course Mother Nature feels like adding more.

The result has been a very slick commute in the city, with numerous accidents reported once again. One accident on the South Shore along Highway 30, resulted in a terrible commute from Chateauguay and neighbouring communities. Roads have been snow covered, especially off island. Visibility is also reduced at times in blowing and drifting snow, as winds gust from the northwest 30-50km/h. The winds will remain gusty into this evening. Temperatures will hover around the freezing point all day.

The message is always the same if you must drive, clean your windows and slow down. Winter tires are essential now, and mandatory in Quebec as of December 1st.

Freezing Rain Warning for metro Montreal

Another round of winter weather is expected in southern Quebec and Ontario Saturday night. Expect icy travel into Sunday morning for many parts of the province.

Freezing Rain Warning in effect for Montreal, southern Quebec and the Ottawa Valley.

Precipitation will start this afternoon in Ontario, and early this evening in Montreal. 

A large area of low pressure will slide southeast across the Great Lakes toward southern Quebec later Saturday. A secondary low is expected to develop over New York State and move towards Atlantic Canada.

A warm front will lift across the St. Lawrence Valley Saturday evening, and become the focus for freezing rain. Light snow will start late in the day in Montreal and become mixed with freezing rain Saturday evening. Amounts have been lowered with recent computer runs, with 2-4cm of snow expected, along with 2-5mm of frozen precipitation for Montreal. Roads will become slippery this evening, along with sporadic power outages. Winds will increase form the northeast 20-40km/h, eventually becoming northwest on Sunday, 30-50km/h.

Mostly snow is expected well north and east of Montreal, with 10-20cm possible. This includes Quebec City and the Highway 20 corridor northeast of Montreal.

Temperatures in Montréal will rise to near 0C (32F) this evening and drop on Sunday behind the system, back below freezing by midday. Flurries are possible on Sunday with another 2cm possible. Some heavier but brief bursts of snow are possible on Sunday as well. We saw this Friday afternoon as instability in the atmosphere produced some rather robust snow showers. There were several serious accidents, including one that closed Highway 50 near Papineauville.

So remember, winter driving is here. While precipitation amounts have been lowered, the number of accidents this past week has shown us that road surfaces only need a glaze of ice to become extremely dangerous.  

Another round of wintery weather for Montreal

Montreal had 5 consecutive days with measurable snow this past week. This is very unusual for November. Another round of snow and freezing rain is on the way for late Saturday into Sunday. The good news is that more seasonable weather is expected by late next week. (Valley Weather)

Special Weather Statement for the risk of freezing rain this weekend in Ontario and southern Quebec.

Another round of freezing rain and snow is expected this weekend for a large portion of Ontario and Quebec. Another complex area of low pressure will move from the central US into the St. Lawrence Valley on Saturday. A warm front will lift across the region, with an area of steady freezing rain mixed with snow ahead of it. Precipitation will start in Ontario Saturday morning reaching Montreal by the evening hours.

Freezing rain warnings are already in effect for western Quebec and the upper Ottawa Valley and they will likely be extended into southern Quebec and eastern Ontario later today or Saturday morning.

Friday will be fair as high pressure tries to nudge into the region. But the airmass is still rather moist and unstable from this week's precipitation and some fog and low clouds may remain for at least the morning. Temperatures will be a touch warmer than they have been all week in Montreal, reaching 4C (39F) on Friday.

Partly cloudy skies Friday night will allow the temperature to fall quickly, down to -5C (23F). Saturday will feature increasing clouds, breezy conditions and eventually the snow and freezing rain mix by late in the day. Highs will be near 0C (32F).

Hydro-Québec is looking at more potential power outages in the province this weekend, with snow and freezing rain in the forecast. The utility is still repairing damage from Monday's snowstorm, that saw as many as 400,000 customers in the dark at height of the event. As of Friday morning the number was down to just under 3000. (Hydro-Québec Photo)

At this time as much as 10mm of ice accretion is possible from Montreal to Cornwall, less north where more snow is likely and south of the city where rain is forecast. That amount of ice will produce very slick roads and sidewalks and possible power outages. This is not good news for the Hydro-Quebec crews that have been working all week repairing the damage from Monday's snowstorm. There are still close to 3000 customers without power.

To complicate matters, a second area of low pressure will develop near New York City and move north into Maine. This will likely change any freezing rain or rain back to all snow on Sunday from west to east as temperatures drop back below freezing from early morning highs in Montreal of 3C (38F).

The good news is that next week looks a touch calmer, with warmer temperatures by the weekend.

Montreal had 5 consecutive days with measurable snow this week at Trudeau Airport. This is quite unusual for November. Total accumulations since Sunday ranged from 15 to 25cm across the Montreal region for the week. Most of that is in the process of melting away as rain has mixed in over the last 36 hours.

Heavy wet snow results in widespread power outages across Southern Quebec

Hydro-Quebec is dealing with a significant number of outages on Tuesday morning as a result of heavy wet snow. Over 377,000 customers are without power across the province, the majority here in the southwest corner. Montreal alone is reporting over 41,000 in the dark. (Hydro-Quebec)

Between 10-20cm of snow fell across the Island of Montreal in under 6 hours.

As of 7AM Tuesday, 375,00 Hydro-Quebec customers have no power.

Roads are snow covered, icy and dangerous - some school are closed for the day.

The upper level low responsible for our winter-like weather on Sunday, spawned a weak surface low over Vermont that moved north late Monday, providing enough lift to produce heavy wet snow across the extreme southwestern corner of Quebec. In under 6 hours, over 10cm of heavy wet snow fell, weighing down trees, many which still have leaves on them, onto power lines.

A narrow band of heavy wet snow developed on the backside of this past weekends storm, dumping a quick 10-20cm of heavy wet snow from Plattsburgh and Burlington north into Montreal. The snow caught many by surprise resulting in scores of accidents during the Monday evening commute. (Valley Weather)

The result has been widespread power outages, with Hydro-Quebec reporting over 1000 individual breaks in the system, with 377,620 customers without power as of 7am Tuesday morning. That includes 41,820 on the Island of Montreal and 19,496 in Laval. The utility has responded with crews, but strong winds and continued snowfall are slowing down the recovery operation.

In Montreal, the snow resulted in very dangerous travel conditions, with a rash of accidents reported during the evening hours. Travel remains very poor Tuesday morning, with many roads snow covered, with hard packed snow and ice on many secondary roads. Travel with great caution and remain off the roads if you do not have winter tires on.

The same system continues to push waves of light snow across Southern Quebec Tuesday morning, with another 2 to 4cm possible today. Winds will be gusty from the northwest at 30-50km/h, and temperatures will remain cold for Remembrance Day, around -2C (29F). If you have plans to attend a service, dress warmly.

Wintry weather causes accidents and power outages in the Montreal region

Seven hours of freezing rain coated trees and power lines in parts of Montreal on Sunday. More than 14,000 Hydro-Quebec customers were left without power. (Valley Weather Photo)

A messy mix of snow and freezing rain moved across southern Ontario and Quebec on Sunday, as the first winter storm of the season moved from Ohio into Maine. Montreal was right on the snow/rain line, with a few hours of snow to start, followed by 7 hours of freezing rain.

The mixed bag of precipitation took a toll on roads and power lines. Several major crashes occurred, including one on Highway 19 involving 20 cars. Others were reported on the west end of the island, where anything elevated become iced over quickly during the afternoon hours.

Power lines and trees were coated in ice as well, this was especially true right along the St. Lawrence River. Outages totalled close to 15,000 at the height of the storm, that number is down to 9,500 Monday morning. Most involve trees coming in contact with wires.

In Montreal the mercury sat right around the freezing point, with around 10mm of freezing rain falling and 1-3cm of wet snow, depending on your exact location. Further north and west, it was all snow. Ottawa reported 12cm, while Roberval, north of Montreal measured 15cm. Winds gusted well over 60km/h at times, making for a real raw November day.

More snow fell in Ottawa, with 12cm observed. Roads were slick in eastern Ontario, with hundreds of accidents reported. (Photo: 613Wrecked)

In Ontario, hundreds of accidents were reported by the OPP along both highways 401 and 417. Most of Ontario reported mainly snow, with the exception of a narrow sliver along the Saint Lawrence River from Kingston to Cornwall.

The weather will continue to be winter like this week, with significant lake effect snow expected south and east of the Great Lakes. Here in southern Quebec, expect flurries off and on through Tuesday evening, along with moderate northwest winds to 50km/h. Snow may accumulate locally 2-4cm, especially if we tap into some Great Lakes moisture.

Temperatures will fall on Monday below freezing again, down to -2C (29F) Tuesday morning and remain stationary all day. The weather will remain unsettled all week, with a mix of rain and snow froecast for Wednesday. Amounts should be on the light side, but expect slick spots when driving.

Have those winter tires installed and please use common sense and courtesy and clean the ice and snow off your car. I noticed on my Monday morning commute, ice flying off several vehicles and striking others. Please take a few minutes and clean your vehicle.

The 50th Anniversary of the wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald - November 10

The Edmund Fitzgerald in calmer times. (Photo: Bob Campbell)

The wind in the wires made a tattle-tale sound
And a wave broke over the railing
And every man knew, as the captain did too,
T'was the witch of November come stealin'.
Gordon Lightfoot
© 1976 Moose Music, Inc.

It was 50 years ago on November 10, 1975 at approximately 7:20 pm that the iron ore carrier Edmund Fitzgerald went down in a fierce fall storm on Lake Superior. While weather played a definite role, the exact details of the sinking of the ship remain a mystery today. The ship went down quickly, with very little warning or Mayday, taking 29 lives with her. The sinking was caused in part by a strong November Gale or "November Witch". Oddly enough on this 50th Anniversary, we have a similar but weaker storm heading from the Ohio Valley towards the Great Lakes over the next 48 hours. A gale warning is in effect for parts of the region, with the system expected to produce rough waters, strong winds, lake effect snow and rain.

The mangled lifeboat was recovered shortly after the sinking, showing the power of the wind and waves that night. The exact cause of the sinking remains a mystery still today 50 years later. (mghd.org)

The 1975 storm was as intense as they come with 20 foot waves on Lake Superior and winds gusting well over 50 knots. The severe weather was confined to an area along the immediate trajectory of the storm, and especially rough in the waters of eastern Lake Superior, exactly where the Edmund Fitzgerald was. It was a case of the wrong place at exactly the wrong time. The storm was known as a November Witch and classified as a weather bomb, with rapidly dropping pressure from 1000mb over Kansas to 978mb over James Bay in less than 24 hours. The rapid intensification and speed of the storm caught the ship and its crew almost without warning. 

Several memorial services are planned each year including the annual event at Whitefish Point, Michigan, not far from the final resting place of the majestic ship and her crew of 29 brave men. The bell from the Edmund Fitzgerald was recovered in 1995 and has been rung 30 times each year at Whitefish Point on the anniversary of her sinking. This represents all 29 men on board as well as the many others who have perished on Lake Superior. The ship sits in 162 metres (about 530 feet) of water just inside the Canadian boundary, 17 miles north of Whitefish Point, Michigan in Lake Superior.

The chilling image of the Edmund Fitzgerald, resting as a memorial to her 29 man crew in 530 feet of water in  Lake Superior. (Great Lakes Shipwreck Museum Photo)

The wreck has been investigated on at least 30 dives, but none since 1995. Ocean explorer Jean-Michel Cousteau, the son of the late Jacques Cousteau became the first person to lay eyes on the ship in 1980. "The ship was amazingly beautiful because it's deep and cold and nothing's growing on it or very little," he said. Dives to the ship were suspended in 1995 after the bell was recovered by the Canadian Navy and the Great Lakes Shipwreck Museum. The wreck is now considered a protected gravesite and no further permits have been issued by the Canadian Government in the last 30 years.

The exact cause of the sinking of the great Edmund Fitzgerald remains a hotly debated mystery still today, 50 years later. Some think the ship struck bottom near Caribou Island and began taking on water. Others think a massive roque wave drove her straight to the bottom of Lake Superior where she rests in a matter of minutes. Still others say the ship broke in two from constant wear over the lifespan of the ship, which dated back to June 7, 1958.

The launch of the Edmund Fitzgerald in Wisconsin on June 7, 1958. (Fox News Detroit) 

The Edmund Fitzgerald had left Superior, Wisconsin late in the day on November 9th, 1975 with a cargo of 26,116 tons of taconite pellets on her way to Detroit. There are a series of photos, information and very chilling radio chatter from 1975 at www.shipwreckmuseum.com

Snowfall Warning for Montreal

The first significant snow of the season will arrive on Sunday, with 10 to 20cm possible from Montreal north and west into the Ottawa Valley and the Laurentians. Travel will be difficult at best.

Snowfall Warning in effect for metro Montreal, eastern Ontario and the Ottawa Valley for Sunday.

The first significant snowfall of the season is expected Sunday into Monday across portions of southern Ontario into southwestern Quebec. Low pressure will move down the St. Lawrence Valley on Sunday and east of Montreal into New England on Monday.

The warmer temperatures of early Saturday are gone for at least the next week if not longer. Montreal reached 10C (50F) during the overnight hours as a warm front lifted across the region. That was quickly followed by a cold front, gusty northwest winds, flurries and dropping temperatures for most of Saturday. Overnight lows by Sunday morning will be near -1C (30F) and remain nearly stationary all day Sunday.

Snow will overspread the region Sunday morning, possibly mixed with freezing rain or rain south of the St. Lawrence River, with all snow north of the valley. Expect 5 to 10cm of snow on Sunday in Montreal, with an additional 5 to 10cm by Monday morning. Roads will become snow covered and slippery.  Northeast winds of 20-40km/h will make it feel even colder, and lower visibilities in steady snow. This will be a shock for many, as Montreal has barely had a snowflake or any frost so far this fall.

Driving conditions will become very poor on area highways, especially as this is the first snow of the season, and most drivers are not prepared. Leave the car at home if you do not have winter tires installed. Consider changing travel plans if possible and perhaps working from home on Monday.

Colder air will filter in behind the low Sunday night, changing any mixed precipitation back to all snow. Temperatures will remain at or below 0C (32F) throughout Monday. The week ahead will remain unsettled and cold with more flurries possible through Wednesday.

First snowflakes of the season on the horizon for Montreal

Snow has already fallen this week in spots across the Eastern Townships into the White mountains of New Hampshire and parts of Vermont. More snow is expected through Monday, with locations like Jay Peak, Vermont picking up as much as 20cm. Snow may also fall in the valley locations by Sunday night, including Montreal. (NHDOT Photo)

Measurable snow is possible by late Sunday into Monday morning for parts of southern Quebec.

First of all, if you do not have your snow tires on yet, now is the time to seriously consider doing so. Our weather will turn unseasonably cold over the next week, while a series of clipper systems moves southeast across Ontario and into New England. This will produce enough cold air for some snow to fall. While this will not be a big storm, the first snow of the season in any form usually sparks panic on the roads. Be ready!

Alberta Clippers are weaker areas of low pressure that develop in the southern Prairies and move rather quickly east across Ontario and Quebec. They often gain a little strength when the waters of the Great Lakes have yet to freeze. Clippers usually have limited moisture, so they are not our big storms, but they do produce squally weather, strong winds and a sharp drop in the temperatures on the back side of the systems.

November has already produced more seasonable weather in Montreal, after a warm September and October. Snow may fall next week across parts of southern Quebec. (Valley Weather Photo)

We have three such systems forecast to move across our region through Monday. The first on Wednesday, will produce showers and gusty west winds. Wind speeds may top 60km/h in the St. Lawrence Valley. Temperatures will only reach 6C (43F) for a high, followed by morning lows close to the freezing point. On Thursday, behind the first clipper, temperatures will hold steady at 2C (36F), along with blustery conditions and perhaps a snowflake or two. The chilly air will persist into Friday.

Another clipper late Friday, will pass north of Montreal, allowing some warm air to briefly enter the forecast. After a cold morning, highs will reach 8C (47F) on Saturday. On Sunday, the strongest of the three clippers will move south of Montreal, dragging a potent cold front behind it. Temperature will fall to below freezing Sunday night as the coldest air of the season to date arrives across Ontario and Quebec.

Any rain Sunday will change to wet snow overnight into Monday morning across the Ottawa Valley and into Montreal, with a slushy centimetre or two possible for many locations. Temperatures will drop below freezing Sunday night and likely remain near 0C (32F) for highs on Monday. Tuesday will remain breezy and cold, with flurries and a high near 2C (36F).

By the way, how cold is the air over Northern Canada? On Wednesday morning as I write this post, Eureka, Nunavut is -37.6C.