Mandatory evacuations ordered for the Outer Banks in advance of Hurricane Florence

Visible satellite image of a strengthening hurricane Florence early Monday morning. (NOAA)

1:00PM: Florence has exploded into a Category 4 hurricane with 130mph winds as of 12:30pm.

Dare County Emergency Management announced at 10am Monday, September 10, that a mandatory evacuation has been ordered for Hatteras Island effective at noon today. The evacuation will be expanded to the northern beaches including Nags Head and Kitty Hawk on Tuesday at 7am. All tourists and residents are urged to evacuate immediately in advance of a strengthening hurricane Florence. Tropical storm force winds and dangerous surf may arrive as early as Wednesday afternoon. Pounding surf is already lapping at the dunes along the Outer Banks.

Early Monday morning, Florence was located 625 miles southeast of Bermuda, moving northwest at 9 mph. The storm is rapidly deepening at this time, with winds of 105mph. Forecasters anticipate tht Florence will become a category 4 storm prior to landfall somewhere along the North Carolina coast by Thursday. There is still some uncertainty in the track and strength of Florence, but it is becoming more certain that the Carolinas will have significant impacts from this storm.

Gordon to bring heavy rain to Montreal - Florence takes run at east coast

Tropical activity has increased significantly over the last week. (NHC)

Hurricane season is well underway with 4 systems creating a stir in the Atlantic basin. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30, but September has always produced the most activity. Forecasters are tracking the remnants of tropical storm Gordon over Arkansas, tropical storm Florence, newly formed tropical storm Helene and soon to be Isaac.

The remnants of tropical storm Gordon are dumping heavy rain over the Midwest US. Amounts have been impressive, with 100 to 200 mm in several locations. Widespread flood warnings are in effect, as far north as Pennsylvania. A special weather statement has been posted for the St. Lawrence Valley and locations along the shoreline of the Great Lakes, for 30 to 60mm of rain on Monday. What is left of Gordon should pass fairly close to Montreal late Monday, with gusty winds and heavy rain expected.

Florence is expected to strengthen into a major hurricane this week while threatening the US east coast. (NHC) 

Florence
Our attention will then focus on tropical storm Florence. Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are entering uncharted waters with Florence. This storm has been difficult to pin down, not following any rules, with numerous different scenarios at play. One thing is certain this morning, Florence will strengthen and become a major hurricane as it approaches the southeast US coast by the middle of the upcoming week. Models have the storm reaching at least a Category 4 status by Wednesday, with 140 mph winds. What the models can't seem to nail down is a track. While Florence could still turn northeast out to sea, that window of opportunity appears to be closing. A likely target appears to be somewhere along the Carolina coast. I fear for my beloved Outer Banks. Landfall, if any, is still 5 to 6 days out, so a lot can change, especially with fickle tropical systems. Stay tuned! In the meantime stay dry on Monday in Montreal.

Fall-like weekend for Montreal followed by tropical troubles

An AP photo of heavy rain and flash flooding in coastal Alabama on Wednesday, as tropical storm Gordon moved inland. The remains of Gordon will sweep into Ontario and Quebec early next week.

A refreshingly cool air mass is in place Friday morning across southern Quebec, with some of the coolest temperatures since early June. Temperatures across the region are in the single digits, including 8C (48F) at St Anicet and 9C (49F) across the West Island of Montreal. High pressure will crest across the region today into the weekend, with nothing but sunshine. High temperatures will be either side of 20C (68F), with overnight lows around 10C (50F). Abundant sunshine and light winds, will make it a perfect weekend for anything outdoors.

Tropical Update
The remains of tropical storm Gordon, which made landfall in Mississippi earlier this week, are meandering across Arkansas early Friday morning. The system has produced very heavy rainfall between 100 and 200 mm (4 to 8 inches) along its path inland. Widespread flooding has occurred, with warnings stretching northeast into the Ohio Valley. Gordon will continue slowly moving off to the northeast over the weekend, arriving in southern Ontario and Quebec by Monday. We can expect a decent swath of rain across our region, with perhaps 25 to 50 mm (1-2 inches) falling into Tuesday. As Gordon becomes extra-tropical, winds will increase, with gusts up to 50km/h possible in the St. Lawrence Valley. The exact track of Gordon through Quebec will determine where the heaviest rain and strongest winds will occur. I am not expecting any flooding issues locally, as it has been very dry of late. We need the rain in extreme southern Quebec.

Hurricane Florence weakened to a tropical storm early Friday morning, located 955 miles southeast of Bermuda in the open waters of the Atlantic. The once powerful storm has encountered some shear, but this will be temporary. All indications are that Florence will restrengthen over the weekend and perhaps take a run at the Eastern Seaboard. It is very rare for a storm in this location to impact the east coast. Typically they will curve out to sea. However, Florence is being blocked by unusually strong high pressure to the north, the same high pressure that has been giving Montreal our hot summer. Computer models have been all over the place with the eventual track of Florence, but recent runs seem to be leaning on a potential impact to the middle Atlantic region and perhaps eastern Canada. It is way too soon to determine the impacts, if any to the east coast.

I have been tracking tropical systems since hurricane David in 1979, so I will be closely watching Florence over the weekend, and posting updates.

Tropical weather from Montreal to Florida

The National Hurricane Center is watching three areas of disturbed weather in the Atlantic basin this Labour Day. (NHC)

6 PM Update: Tropical storm Gordon has formed in the Gulf of Mexico, 50 miles southwest of Fort Myers, Florida. A hurricane warning is now in effect for the central Gulf Coast. Landfall is forecast by late Tuesday close to the mouth of the Mississippi River.

Previous post: Summer does not want to let go on this Labour Day weekend in southern Quebec. A warm and humid air mass is dominating the weather across the eastern portion of North America. The pattern is very similar to that of July and August in Montreal, with steamy humidity levels and warm temperatures. Montreal remains on the northern periphery of high pressure located near Bermuda. As a result, the weekend has been partly cloudy with numerous showers and thunderstorms.

On Sunday, some heavier storms put down a quick 17mm of rain on L'Ile Perrot. Trudeau Airport recorded 10.4mm. Some parts of north end Montreal had between 30 and 50mm or rain. More strong thunderstorms and heavier showers are possible Labour Day Monday. Temperatures were capped in the middle 20s on Sunday due to the clouds and showers, but should be in the upper 20s Monday and Tuesday. Wednesday will likely be the warmest day of the week, perhaps even the month, with high temperatures into the lower 30s and more oppressive humidity. Overnight lows to start the week at least, will remain warmer than the average daytime high for early September of 22C (72F). A cooler, drier air mass will arrive by Thursday.

NHC forecast track for tropical storm Gordon.

Tropical Atlantic Update
September is the peak period of tropical development in the Atlantic basin. So it is no surprise that we are looking at three systems today. The first is Florence, a 60 mph tropical storm located in the far eastern Atlantic, 900 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. At this time Florence is no threat to land.

Of more concern this week, is the tropical depression located in the Florida keys early Monday morning. This system is forecast to become tropical storm Gordon on Monday afternoon. A tropical storm warning is already in place for the central Gulf Coast from Florida to Louisiana. The biggest threat from Gordon will be heavy rainfall and the potential for life threatening flash flooding. The Gulf Coast was soaked with heavy rain last week, and any additional rainfall will cause flooding. Gusty winds and a 2 to 4 foot storm surge are also expected as the storms approaches the coast late Tuesday.

The third area of concern is located off the coast of Africa. This area of disturbed weather will be watch closely by the National Hurricane Center for any signs of development over the next few days.

Strong thunderstorms produce widespread power outages and an EF-2 tornado

The roof of a duplex in Saint-Leonard was peeled back by the strong thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon. (CTV News)

A fast moving line of strong thunderstorms swept across eastern Ontario and southern Quebec Wednesday afternoon. The storms were moving in excess of 50km/h, racing across the island of Montreal from west to east in less than 30 minutes. A wind gust of 93km/h was observed at Trudeau Airport as the front passed. Further east near Thetford Mines, an EF-2 tornado occurred in the rural region around Saint-Julien, with winds estimated between 180 and 220km/h. Accompanying the tornado was 50mm of rain and 2 to 4cm hail. Thousands of trees were flattened and a mobile home was destroyed. In eastern Ontario, a microburst with an estimated 170km/h wind gust, produced considerable damage to a farm north of Smiths Falls.

(CBC Photo)

In Montreal, numerous tees and branches fell as a result of the storm, several onto cars and hydro lines. A roof was peeled back from a duplex in Saint-Leonard. In the wake of the thunderstorms, Hydro Quebec reported over 170,000 homes and businesses without power in the province, most in metro Montreal and across the South Shore, West Island and Vaudreuil. The majority of clients had their power restored by Thursday morning.

The front ushered in much cooler and drier air, with a hint of fall in the air by Thursday morning. In Montreal the temperature fell from a high of 32C (89F) early Wednesday afternoon, down to 15C (59F) Thursday morning.

Warm and humid start to September
The cool, dry weather will be short-lived, as more heat and humidity will arrive across the Great Lakes and southern Quebec over the Labour Day weekend. There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms through Monday. High temperatures are expected in the upper 20s with humidex values in the middle 30s throughout long weekend. The warm weather is expected to prevail in Montreal through the first couple of weeks of September.

Elevated risk for strong thunderstorms Wednesday in southern Quebec

A strong cold front will bring an end to the current heatwave in Montreal. The storms should fire up this afternoon, impacting Montreal between 4pm and 8pm. (AccuWeather)

A Heat Warning remains in effect for southern Quebec for humidex values near 40C today.

A strong cold front will sweep across eastern Ontario and southern Quebec late today and into the wee hours of Thursday morning. Montreal has been entrenched in a soupy air mass this week, with high temperatures near 30C (86F) and oppressive humidity readings. Dew point temperatures, which are a strong indication of the amount of water vapour in the atmosphere, have been more Florida-like, in the middle 20s (70s F). Humidex readings exceeded 40C (104F) for over 4 hours in Montreal on Tuesday afternoon. Conditions would have been even warmer if it were not for several rounds of showers and thunderstorms.

Wednesday's cold front should arrive late this afternoon, with areas of strong thunderstorms developing in advance of the system. The most likely time for severe weather in Montreal, would be between 4pm and 8pm. The high temperature today will be near 30C. Any strong storms that do develop will have the potential to produce damaging winds and heavy rain. There is even a very slight risk of an isolated tornado north of metro Montreal. Keep in mind that with any scenario such as this, the storms are scattered in nature. While weather watches may be issued for a large area, the actual storms may only affect a small sector of the region. This is common with thunderstorm activity as we witnessed on Tuesday afternoon. They can pop up quickly, produce damaging winds and flooding rain and dissipate just as fast. Stay alert.

Cooler and much drier air will arrive on Thursday, with a daytime high of 23C (73F) and much lower humidity. Thursday night will be clear and refreshingly cool, with lows around 11C (52F).

Hot and humid return to school for students in Montreal

Hot and humid air will surge into Montreal and southern Quebec this week. Humidex values are expected to exceed 40C on Tuesday. (AccuWeather)

Environment Canada has posted yet another heat warning for southern Quebec through early Wednesday. The combination of heat and elevated humidity will make conditions feel oppressive over the next 48 hours. Humidex and heat index values will approach 40C (104F) Tuesday afternoon. The heat unfortunately will coincide with start of the new school year. Most schools do not have air conditioning, so it  will be uncomfortable to say the least. Temperatures are expected in the high 20s for Monday along with the risk of late day thunderstorms. Overnight Monday into Tuesday conditions will remain oppressive with lows in the low to middle 20s. On Tuesday, expect a breezy, hot day, with a daytime high of 32C (90F) in Montreal.

The hot weather will also extend into eastern Ontario, and south of the border across New York and New England. A heat advisory is in effect stateside for the St. Lawrence and Champlain Valleys. The late season heatwave will add to an already smoking hot summer. In the 84 days since the start of meteorological summer on  June 1, Montreal has exceeded 27C (80F) on 50 of those days. Included in that total are 15 days above 30C (86F).

Warm Fall
The late summer heatwave should come to an end on Wednesday, as a strong cold front ushers in cooler and dryer air. There is a chance of scattered severe thunderstorms on Wednesday for a portion of our region. With August drawing to a close, our attention will shift to fall. Current indications suggest a warm and dry September is on tap for southern Quebec. A weak El Nino is expected to develop through the fall and intensify into the winter months. If this scenario holds true, we may be looking at above normal temperatures through Christmas and into the new year.

Powerful hurricane Lane heads for Hawaii

Hurricane Lane early Thursday morning, located 290 miles south of Honolulu. (NOAA)

A state of emergency is in effect across the Hawaiian Islands in advance of powerful hurricane Lane. On Thursday, Lane was located 275 miles (445 km) south of Honolulu, meandering northwest at 7 mph. Winds gusted over 130 mph in the center of the hurricane making it a Category 4 storm. Lane had weakened slightly, down from a rare Category 5 storm earlier in the week.

Further weakening is likely over the weekend, but Lane will remain a strong hurricane as it skirts along the eastern coast of the islands. Even if Lane does not make a direct landfall on the island chain, significant impacts are occurring and expected to persist into the weekend. Extremely heavy rain has already produced flash flooding and mudslides. Just Thursday alone, some locations on the Big Island reported over 20 inches (500 mm) of rain. The slow movement of the storm will only prolong the serious flood threat. Huge waves have been crashing along the south facing beaches, with heavy surf expected to spread further north on Friday. A storm surge of up to 4 feet is causing significant beach erosion. Evacuations have been ordered, along with the closure of schools and businesses.

Despite Hawaii's location in the middle of the central Pacific, it has not had a direct landfall from a hurricane in 26 years. In 1992, Category 4 Hurricane Iniki devastated the island state with a direct hit, producing 145mph winds and over $3 billion dollars in damage. Only two other storms have made a landfall in the satellite era, Dot in 1959 and Iwa in 1982.

Heavy rain expected Friday in southern Quebec

While the storms missed Montreal on Wednesday, heavy rain fell along the northeast shoreline of Lake Ontario. The region around Kingston, Ontario was hit hard, with flash flooding reported. Between 25 and 90mm of rain fell across the region in just a few hours. (Global TV)

Many parts of southern Ontario, western New York and the northeast US have had a very wet summer. Wednesday was no different, as a cold front cut across the region, tapping into deep tropical moisture. The storms on Wednesday missed Montreal, but impacted the Kingston, Ontario region with flash flooding. Some neighbourhoods around Kingston reported 60 to 90mm of rain in a very short time. Numerous business and roads were flooded.

Further south in Pennsylvania and across the Mid-Atlantic US, the rain and storms have been relentless all summer. Streams and rivers are running very high, and serious flooding has already occurred, especially in Pennsylvania and New Jersey. In Wilkes-Barre and Scranton, over 100mm (4 inches) of rain fell on Monday alone. It was the most rain in a 24 hour period since Hurricane Connie in 1955. In the state capital of Harrisburg, 400mm (16") of rain fell during the month of July, the normal is 150mm (6 inches). At the same time, despite the oppressive humidity, parts of northeast New York, northern Vermont and Southern Quebec have been rather dry, with near drought conditions at times. Montreal has had close to 180mm (7 inches) of rain since June 1, but the majority of that has been very localized around Trudeau Airport, and occurred on just a few days. Rainfall to date in August is 33.6mm, the monthly 30-year average for the city is 94.1mm. On L'Ile Perrot, I have recorded 61mm since August 1, thanks to a few well placed thunderstorms.

Heavy rain and thunderstorms are forecast in Montreal on Friday. At this time forecasters are expecting 20 to 30mm rain.

Heavy Rain for southern Quebec
We will add to that monthly total on Friday, as low pressure over the Great Lakes combines with and advancing cold front to draw deep moisture northward from the Gulf of Mexico. The day will be very humid and unsettled, with heavy downpours and embedded thunderstorms likely. The showers will begin overnight in the Ottawa Valley and in the early morning hours in Montreal. The biggest threat for heavy rain in the St. Lawrence Valley will be in the afternoon. Rainfall accumulations could exceed 25mm (1 inch) in several locations. The storms should be fast moving, which should limit the risk of any flash flooding in metro Montreal. Skies should clear out early Saturday, setting the stage for a decent weekend, with just a slight risk of an isolated shower. Mostly sunny skies are forecast, with daytime high temperatures between 24 and 27C (75-80F).

Blazing hot summer across Canada from coast to coast

A spectacular photo taken in Orange County, California, as one of the worst fire seasons in recent memory continues across western North America.

The searing heat continues to impact large areas of Canada, with a focus on the west this weekend. A cold front moved through southern Quebec late Thursday, with isolated thunderstorms. A fast moving storm put down 15mm of rain in 20 minutes across Ile Perrot and Vaudreuil. The cold front brought in the coolest air of the month, with a morning low of 16C (61F) in Montreal. More importantly, the week long oppressive humidity finally broke as well.

The upcoming weekend will be warm once again, close to 30C (86F), but humidity levels should remain manageable. Sunshine will dominate in southern Quebec through Sunday evening, when our next chance for showers should arrive.

Dense smoke in B.C., has spread right across western Canada and into the northern US. (BC Wildfire Service Photo)

In Western Canada, hot high pressure is shattering records form B.C. to Saskatchewan. On Thursday, over 40 record high temperatures were established across the three provinces, including 40.8C (106F) at Kamloops, B.C. As I am writing this blog, temperatures once again are in the high 30s and low 40s across western Canada. Accompanying the heat has been dense smoke from forest fires burning across B.C. The smoke has lowered visibility from B.C. to western Ontario. Air quality alerts are in effect across western Canada, and southward into North Dakota, Montana and Minnesota.

In B.C. over 475 wildfires are burning, many being started from lightning strikes associated with dry thunderstorms. Rain is desperately needed. The high heat and extremely dry weather stretches from southern Canada to California, with thousands upon thousands of acres being consumed by fire. While Quebec and Ontario have been dealing with high humidity, dangerously low levels are being recorded out west, in many case lower than 10 percent.

Wicked thunderstorms cool off one hot city

Just one of the hundreds of lighting strikes over L'Ile Perrot late Monday afternoon. The atmosphere was charged with energy after a very hot and humid day that saw highs in the lows 30s and humidex values over 40C. (ValleyWeather Image)

The hot summer of 2018 has rolled into August, with little relief so far. On Monday, Montreal reached 31.7C (89F), the fifteenth 30C plus day so far this summer. Adding to the extreme heat was oppressive humidity levels, with the humidex over 40C (104F) for 6 consecutive hours on Monday. The blazing daytime heat and humidity was brought to an abrupt end around the supper hour, as a line of fast moving thunderstorms crossed the city. The storms affected my domain on L'Ile Perrot close to 6pm, turning day to night, with a vivid display of spectacular lightning. Winds gusted over 90km/h at several locations, and 82km/h at Trudeau Airport. A much needed 10-20mm of rain fell over a 30 minute period from Valleyfield to Dorval.

The combination of strong winds and lightning knocked out power to over 40,000 Hydro Quebec clients, most across the West Island, Monteregie and South Shore. As of 11am Tuesday, 5600 clients remain without power.

Looking ahead to the remainder of this week, we can expect less humid weather, but still warm and somewhat unsettled. There is a risk of more showers and isolated thunderstorms today and Wednesday, but the risk is slight. On Thursday, skies should clear along with dryer air. The temperature will remain above normal, as it has all summer in Montreal. Expect daytime highs from 26C to 30C (79F to 86F) with overnight lows a little more comfortable, between 16C and 20C (61F to 68F). Skies will be partly to mostly sunny from Thursday through Sunday.

Record hot July in Montreal - more of the same for August

A message many can relate to in parts of eastern Canada, is displayed on a business in French River, Ontario. The community, 500km west of Ottawa, is being threatened by the 27,000 hectare Parry Sound fire. Dense smoke has settled over many parts of northeast Ontario and western Quebec. (CBC)

The month of July is in the record books, and it was the hottest to date at Trudeau Airport. The average temperature at the airport in suburban Dorval was 24.2C, with data back to 1941. The only warmer month on record for the region was in 1921, downtown an McGill University, with an average of 24.7C. The long-term 30 year average for July is 21.2C. The city recorded at least 11 days above 30C, with many regions in southern Quebec reporting more. The hottest day here on LÌle Perrot, was a scorching 36.3C on July 2nd. Rainfall was highly variable across Ontario and Quebec, with the bulk of the precipitation falling in the final week of July. For example, Trudeau Airport measured 97.6mm for the month, but most of that fell over a 48 hour period on the 25th and 26th. By contrast, here on L'Ile Perrot, I only recorded 46.2mm. I am confident with that number, as most of the thunderstorm activity went north of my location. The overnight period provided very little relief in the city, with 13 low temperatures remaining above 20C at the airport. It was even warmer in the concrete jungle downtown. Combined with the heat, was days of oppressive humidity values, some of the highest numbers and longest duration ever recorded in Montreal.

The dry weather has continued the elevated threat of brush and forest fires across parts of the province. Currently, there are 19 fires burning in Quebec. At times on Thursday, the smokey air from the Ontario fires, was drifting across eastern Ontario and into southern Quebec. West winds transported the smoke into the region. In Ontario, over 47 fires are burning in the northeast portion of that province alone. The largest in the 11,000 plus hectare Parry Sound fire. Clouds and an increase in humidity helped firefighters on Thursday, but it continues to burn out of control. Heavy rain over the last two weeks has been confined to the area around Ottawa, and not further west and north where it is desperately needed.

Hot start to August
A warm and humid southerly flow of air continues to dominate the weather in southern Quebec. A strong Bermuda high is relentlessly pumping the heat and humidity northward into eastern Canada. These conditions are forecast to persist through the upcoming weekend. Expect daytime highs near 30C and overnight lows in the low 20s. The muggy weather will prevail most of next week as well. Only a few scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected in our region through the weekend, with the bulk of the activity remaining well south of Montreal, over New England and the middle-Atlantic.

Torrential rain alleviates drought in Ontario - still dry in Quebec

Heavy rain this week brought a temporary end to drought conditions in southern Quebec and Ontario. These photos were taken during a torrential downpour Wednesday, July 25 in Vaudreuil, west of Montreal. Some locations in Ontario measured over 100mm (4 inches) of rain. The heavy rain also affected the Middle Atlantic and Northeast US, with flooding observed in several communities. (ValleyWeather Photos)

Deep tropical moisture streamed into eastern Ontario this past week, dumping a record-setting amount of rain on several regions. The hardest hit area stretched from central Pennsylvania northward into the Ottawa Valley. Ottawa reported 130.8mm of rain since last Sunday, with 61.4mm falling on Wednesday alone. More thunderstorms are rattling around the region on Friday, adding to the totals. The same system produced scattered thunderstorms in Montreal, with 36mm recorded at Trudeau Airport. This brings the monthly total up to 68.8mm in Montreal, still below normal for July, but a vast improvement nonetheless. Isolated amounts in the Vaudreuil area approached 50mm late Wednesday afternoon. The heavy rain was easily absorbed in most regions of Ontario and Quebec, with only minor flooding reported. The storms did produce scattered power outages across southern Quebec.

As we look towards the end of July and start of August, a similar pattern is expected. The upcoming weekend will be warm and humid on Saturday, with scattered thunderstorms. Sunday and Monday will be much drier, but remaining warm, with highs in the upper 20s. By next Tuesday, we can expect increasing clouds along with more showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will remain at or slightly above normal in Montreal. Keep those air conditioners and fans close by because August is expected to be a warm and humid one in southern Quebec.

Tropical heat and humidity return to southern Quebec

Deep tropical moisture is moving northward from the southern US into Quebec and Ontario. Much needed rainfall is expected, with as much as 50mm by the end of the week. (AccuWeather.com)

A conveyor belt of heat and tropical humidity is streaming northward from the deep southern US, straight into southern Quebec and Ontario. Southern Quebec will be squeezed by a Bermuda high to our east and a trough of low pressure over the Great Lakes, helping to propel the moisture northward. This will result in periods of showers and thunderstorms throughout the upcoming week. Despite the persistent cloud cover, temperatures will be in the upper 20s to near 30C all week. Overnight lows will be very mild, in the 21 to 23C range. Combined with the high humidity, the weather will feel downright tropical and oppressive at times, with dew points in the middle 20s and humidex values in the upper 30s. Some relief will arrive by next weekend, with slightly cooler temperatures and lower humidity. The threat for showers and thunderstorms however, is expected to persist right into next weekend. So far July 2018 is averaging over 5 degrees above normal and may end up being one of the warmest on record for Montreal.

Quebec and Ontario need the rain
Rainfall will be scattered in nature with this system, but amounts could exceed 50mm (2 inches) by the end of the week.On Monday morning, 25mm fell in Rutland, Vermont is just two hours with a heavier downpour. On Sunday, 5 to 7mm fell in Montreal, but we desperately need more. Most of southern Quebec, eastern Ontario and neighbouring New York and New England has been very dry since mid-June. The list of municipalities asking residents to conserve water has grown steadily this month. Many are also banning outdoor burning of any kind. Here on L'Ile Perrot, we have been asked to avoid watering lawns, washing cars and filling pools until water levels rise again. Despite this request, there are still many residents running there sprinklers from dusk to dawn. It is not hard to find out which houses those are, as most lawns not being watered are completely brown. Other regions such as Chateuguay and St. Lazare are actually enforcing the request with a complete watering ban in place.

Another record high temperature for Montreal

A National Guard UH-60 Blackhawk helicopter drops water from a 660 gallon bucket onto the Flat Rock fire near Altona, New York. (National Guard photo via Twitter)

The sizzling summer of 2018 added another day to the record books on Monday, the fifth record high this month. The temperature reached 33.7C (93F) Monday afternoon at Montreal's Trudeau Airport, eclipsing the record of 32.3C set in 1982. Through July 16th, the average daytime high for the city has been a sweltering 30.8C (87F), well into record-setting territory. The normal average daytime high for the month of July in Montreal is 26.3C (79F). Of the 16 days so far this month, 9 have been above 30C.

Rain...finally
A cold front crossed the city Tuesday morning, producing widespread thunderstorm activity. The storms provided much needed rainfall, with 20mm falling on L'Ile Perrot. The rain was the first measurable precipitation this month, providing some slight relief to drought conditions that had been worsening by the day. Over the weekend several brush fires were reported across eastern Ontario. The forests have been very dry as well, with 19 fires burning in Quebec, most across the northwest portion of the province. Closer to home, 200 firefighters from New York, Vermont and southern Quebec, were battling the Flat Rock fire near Altona, New York in northern Clinton County. The fire had burned 528 acres as of Tuesday morning, and was 65 percent contained. The overnight rain provided some much needed assistance to the firefighters. Altona is 105km southwest of metro Montreal.

Behind the cold front, temperatures were still warm on Tuesday, but the humidity levels were dropping all day on brisk northwest winds. The weather will be more comfortable Tuesday night and Wednesday, with lows near 16C (61F) and a high on Wednesday of 25C (77F). Warmer, more humid weather returns Thursday into the upcoming weekend, with highs of 27C to 30C, along with the risk of showers and thunderstorms as we head into the weekend.

Southern Quebec and Ontario in desperate need of rain

More hot and humid weather is forecast for Montreal through next Tuesday. (AccuWeather.com)

Drought conditions are beginning to worsen across portions of eastern Ontario, southern Quebec and New England. In Montreal, the last measurable rainfall was on June 30 when a paltry 6mm fell. The dry weather has prompted numerous municipalities, in both provinces, to place restrictions on outdoor water use, as well as any burning. On Ile Perrot, lawn watering in prohibited at this time, but that has not stopped many residents from doing it anyway. Those who do obey the rules, are left with badly burnt lawns and trees loosing their leaves. The fire danger in forests across the region ranges from very high to extreme. Dozens of fires continue to burn in Quebec and Ontario. The dry weather has been accompanied by a very warm start to July. So far this month, 7 of the 12 days in Montreal have recorded highs above 30C (86F). Of the remaining days, only one was below 27C (81F).

There is a little good news on the horizon. A weak frontal boundary will move into southern Quebec overnight into Saturday morning, with some scattered showers. The rain will be light and isolated, but any moisture is welcome. Unfortunately this front will open the door to another hot and humid period, lasting into Tuesday. Daytime highs across the area will be in the low 30s, with humidex values approaching 38C (100F) Sunday and Monday. On Tuesday, a more potent cold arrives with numerous showers and thunderstorms. This front has the potential to bring Montreal our first appreciable rain of the month.

Towering waves pound the Newfoundland coast at Cape Race on Thursday. Post-Tropical Storm Chris moved into Placentia bay late in the day, before racing off to the northeast. (The Weather Network)

Tropical Storm Chris
Chris moved across Placentia Bay in Newfoundland on Thursday, with heavy rain, strong winds and towering waves. In Gander, 76mm (3 inches) of rain fell. A peak wind gust of 105km/h (65mph) was observed at Cape Pine, 102km/h (63mph) at Bonavista, and 91km/h (56mph) at St John's Airport. Waves as high as 8 metres (26 feet) pounded coastal regions along the south coast and Avalon Peninsula. At this time, no major damage was reported. Chris has become post-tropical, and is racing of to the northeast this morning in the open waters of the North Atlantic.

Tropical Storm Chris expected to impact Atlantic Canada

A NOAA satellite image of Tropical storm Chris southeast of Cape Hatteras on Tuesday afternoon.

7pm Update: Chris has been upgraded to a category 1 hurricane, with 85mph winds.

Tropical storm Chris is slowly starting to pull away from the North Carolina coast this afternoon, after being nearly stationary for the last 48 hours. At 11am this morning, the strengthening center of Chris was located 320km southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, with 70mph (110km/h) winds. The system was moving northeast at 15km/h, expected to enter the warm Gulf Stream waters shortly. Forecasters anticipate that Chris will become a hurricane later today. The immediate impacts from Chris have been pounding surf along the Outer Banks. Several roads have been washed over, and a few homes on Hatteras Island have suffered structural damage. One person drowned in the rough surf caused by Chris over the weekend in Nags Head, North Carolina.

The forecast track of Chris from the National Hurricane Centre, will take the storm very close to southeast Newfoundland by Friday.

Impacts in Atlantic Canada
As Chris strengthens over the next 24 hours, swells will increase along the east coast of the US. Chris is expected to weaken back to a tropical storm as it begins to approach the Canadian waters by Thursday. The Canadian Hurricane Centre in Halifax is expecting Chris to have some impacts on Atlantic Canada. Winds and seas should increase early Thursday along the Nova Scotia coast, with Chris remaining well offshore. The storm is then likely to approach the Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland Friday morning, with perhaps a landfall. Heavy rain, in excess of 50mm (2 inches) and strong winds up to 100km/h (60 mph) are possible by the end of the week for portions of Newfoundland. Some fine tuning will need to be done on the exact track and impacts as the week progresses. Interests in Atlantic Canada should closely monitor the progress of Chris.

Extremely dry weather across southern Quebec

Over 30 active forest fires are burning across Quebec. To date, 368 fires have been reported, consuming over 23,000 hectares. Outdoor burning is not advised in metro Montreal and especially on the South Shore. Tinder dry conditions exist, with no rain occurring at Trudeau Airport so far this month. (CBC Photo)

The deadly heatwave the baked Montreal last week came to an end on Friday. The high heat and humidity was responsible for 54 deaths across the province. After a coolish Friday, temperatures warmed up again this weekend, with the city reaching 32C (90F) on Monday afternoon. The difference Monday, is there is a brisk southwest wind of 50km/h blowing, and the humidity is far more manageable.

One variable of the heatwave that does continue this week, is the very dry conditions. The aforementioned lower humidity levels and gusty winds are not helping the dry situation in Quebec. Trudeau Airport has officially measured no rainfall this month, and only 15mm (0.5") since June 19. The very dry weather and searing heat have baked neighbourhood lawns, with trees loosing leaves and showing signs of heat stress. No appreciable rain is expected through the balance of this week, with just a few spotty showers in the forecast Tuesday and again Saturday. The temperature will remain warm as well, between 27C and 30C (80 to 85F).

Forest fire risk on the rise across Quebec and Ontario
The lack of rain and intense heat has also resulted in a spike in forest fire activity across Quebec and northeast Ontario. In Quebec, over 30 active fires are being reported by SOPFEU, covering in excess of 42,000 hectares. The province has requested and received assistance from Saskatchewan, Alberta, New Brunswick and Newfoundland. Additional manpower and resources have arrived from Parks Canada. In addition to the Canadian help, several teams of firefighters are in Quebec from Massachusetts, New Hampshire and Maine.

In Ontario, 70 fires are burning in the northeast portion of that province, with evacuations underway in several communities. Over 400 firefighters have been assigned to the region, with reinforcements from other provinces expected to join the battle. Dense smoke from these fires is expected to drift into western Quebec over the next few days.

The tinder dry conditions in our immediate region have resulted in a very high fire threat across metro Montreal. Extreme fire danger conditions exist across the South Shore as well as the Ottawa Valley. Outdoor burning in may cases is prohibited and in all cases should just be avoided all together. Additionally several municipalities are asking the you conserve water, and refrain from watering your lawn, filling your pool or washing your car.

Relief on the way from searing heat in Montreal

Relief is on the way to southern Quebec from the week-long heatwave that has claimed at least 21 lives in the province. (AccuWeather.com)

Thursday marks the 7th and last day in a week-long heatwave that has claimed at least 33 lives in southern Quebec. The city has put in place emergency measures to assist those most at risk, but Urgence Sante is still reporting a 30 percent increase in calls, many directly related to the heat. Most municipalities have lengthened pool hours and established cooling centres. City of Montreal firefighters have been going door to door in many neighbourhoods to check on residents.

Temperature records have been falling across the province, with some locations establishing new all time record highs. Another temperature record, the third this week, was set on Wednesday in Montreal, as the mercury soared to 34.2C (94F) at Trudeau Airport. The previous record was 33.1C (91F) set in 1983. Other parts of the city were even warmer, I recorded a high of 34.8C (95F) on L'Ile Perrot. Montreal is expected to set another record today, with a forecast high of 35C (95F). Humidex or real feel temperatures will soar into the middle 40s.Widespread heat warnings and advisories remain posted from Ontario east through Quebec and into Atlantic Canada and south into New York and New England.

Numerous municipalities have imposed water bans or asked their residents to avoid watering lawns or washing cars. The blazing sun is starting to take a toll on browning lawns and trees, with leaves falling to the ground as if it was September. Conditions are dry, with less than 15mm of rain falling at Trudeau Airport since June 19th. Some relief is on the way as early as this afternoon. A cold front will move across Ontario and into Quebec in the wee hours Friday morning. Some pulse type thunderstorms are expected to pop up this afternoon around Montreal. The biggest threat is expected to be strong winds, dangerous lightning and torrential downpours. More storms are expected along the cold front overnight in Montreal, before cooler, more refreshing air arrives. On Friday, the heatwave will break, with clearing skies, lowering humidity levels, and a high temperature of 23C (73F). On Friday night, the temperature will drop below 20C (68F) for the first time in over a week, with a forecast low of 12C (54F). Mother Nature will be providing the natural A/C.

Thunderstorms cut power to over 160,000 Quebec homes

A beautiful end to a record setting hot day. Mother Nature has been putting on quite a show this week, I took this picture of a spectacular sunset over Vaudreuil Bay last evening. Decaying cumulus clouds can be seen in the background as the storms dissipated at sunset. At the same time lightning was flashing in the distance behind me off to the east.

Heat warning remains in effect for metro Montreal.

The heatwave continues. As I write this Tuesday afternoon, the mercury has reached the forecast high of 32C (90F). In relative terms, it is a touch less oppressive today in Montreal, as dew points and humidity levels are down. It does however, remain hot. The humidity will creep back up again on Wednesday and Thursday into the oppressive range, along with highs near 35C (95F).

On Monday, Montreal recorded another record high in this current heatwave, reaching 35.3C (96F). The previous record was 34.4C established in 1963. We will likely miss the record from today of 33.9C set in 1966, but challenge it once again tomorrow and Thursday. As hot as Montreal was, the city was not the warmest in the country, Ottawa hit 36C (97F), breaking the 1963 mark of 35.6C. Bagotville was a sultry 36.9C (99F). Burlington, Vermont recorded the warmest night since record keeping began in that city, remaining above 27C (80F) Monday. The heatwave is forecast to continue through Thursday, before the arrival of a cold front. Cooler, less humid weather is forecast for the weekend. Severe thunderstorms are likely to accompany the cold front late Thursday into Friday morning across southern Ontario and Quebec.

The intensity and duration of the heat is beginning to take its toll on the region. Urgences Sante has reported a sharp increase in heat related medical calls. Cooling centres have been opened and pool hours have been extended in many communities. According to Montreal Mayor Valerie Plante, the city is having police and firefighters go door to door visiting those residents who are most vulnerable to the heat, including seniors. Montreal public health officials are reporting six fatalities directly linked to the heatwave.

Severe Thunderstorms
A weak cold front crossed southern Quebec late Monday afternoon, triggering a line of severe thunderstorms. Strong winds. in excess of 140km/h, brought down trees and power lines and caused major damage to Hydro Quebec infrastructure. A combination of lightning and wind knocked power out to over 163,000 Quebec residents. Hydro Quebec had more than 250 teams deployed to repair the damage. As of 3pm Tuesday afternoon, over 90 percent of the customers had been reconnected, with 15,000 customers still sweating in the dark. Hydro Quebec said that most of the power will be restored by the end of Tuesday, but some of the hardest hit regions may not get power back until late Wednesday.