Groundhog Day snow forecast for Montreal

The 7 to 14cm of snow that fell Wednesday across southwestern Quebec created very dangerous driving conditions, especially when combined with northeast winds and frigid arctic air. There were long delays and numerous accidents reported during the morning commute in metro Montreal. (Valley Weather)

Regardless as to whether or not the Groundhog see's his shadow this Sunday, our active weather and in many case wintry weather pattern will persist. It was another frigid morning in Montreal on Thursday, with morning lows close to -20C (-4F). The 7-14cm of fresh snow that fell across southern Quebec on Wednesday, along with light winds, made for ideal radiational cooling overnight. Wednesday's snow created treacherous driving conditions for the commute, with another round of accidents and long delays in thick traffic reported across the Montreal region.

The weather remains chilly Thursday afternoon, with the temperature struggling to climb in Montreal as I write, with a current reading of -14C (7F). Clouds are already on the increase as our next system moves into Ontario. It is just one of many that will move quickly across the region over the next week, bringing us more snow and big fluctuations in temperature.

The clouds will produce light snow this evening and into the overnight, with only 2-4cm expected from the moisture starved Alberta clipper. Warmer air will arrive from the southwest, with the temperature rising overnight to a high of -5C (23F) Friday. Partly sunny skies are forecast for Friday into Saturday, along with dropping temperatures once again. The low into Saturday drops to -16C (4F), with a cold high of -12C (14F) on Saturday. 

Traffic crawls into Montreal from Ile Perrot on Wednesday morning.

We can expect another cold night into Sunday, with the low close to -20C in Montreal. Another storm system arrives on Groundhog Day Sunday, with more snow forecast. At this time another 5cm looks possible for Montreal. Temperatures will warm into Monday, likely going above freezing for a few hours, before another strong cold front arrives late in the day, with plummeting temperatures into Monday morning.

Precipitation, mostly snow, has fallen in Montreal on 26 of the 29 days so far this month. To date 37.5cm has officially fallen at Trudeau Airport, with well over 40cm in may other locations in southern Quebec during the moth of January. The recent cold temperatures has meant most of that has remained on the ground. As well, the cold temperatures have built up quite a bit of ice on area rivers. The ice road on the Ottawa River between Hudson and Oka officially opened last week, after failing to due so as a result of mild conditions in both 2023 and 2024. 

Another round of wind and snow on the way for Montreal

A much calmer start to the day early Tuesday morning on Ile Perrot, after snow squalls and fierce winds created dangerous travel conditions across the St. Lawrence Valley Monday afternoon and evening. The squalls hit the Montreal region around midnight putting down a quick 5cm or so of wind-driven snow. The Tuesday morning commute was slick and slow.

The active weather pattern currently in place will continue on Wednesday as another low pressure area skirts just to the south of Montreal, accompanied by snow and gusty winds. After a sunny, but very cold and windy day Tuesday behind our most recent storm, clouds will increase late in the day.

Light snow is forecast to develop overnight and persist into Wednesday. Accumulations should be in the 5-10cm range across most of southern Quebec and eastern Ontario, with 15cm locally. Much lighter but still gusty northeast winds of up to 30km/h will make for a rather raw day, as highs should be around -10C (14F) on Wednesday.

More snow is expected to end the week, with several more storm systems on the horizon.

Hydro-Quebec reported over 100,000 customers without power Monday night as temperatures plummeted behind an arctic front, down to -15C (5F) in Montreal Tuesday morning. (Hydro-Quebec) 

The windstorm that swept across the St. Lawrence Valley on Monday, produced gusts up to 100km/h across southern Quebec. A peak gust of 105km/h (65 mph) was recorded at Saint Hubert, with 96km/h (59.6 mph) at Trudeau Airport and 89km/h (55 mph) on Ile Perrot.

The strong winds were produced by an arctic cold front trailing from a powerful winter storm moving across northern Quebec. The central pressure of that storm was 965mb just east of James Bay, equivalent to that of a category two hurricane. Strong winds and snow squalls occurred over a large portion of the province as a result.

The strong winds were responsible for significant power outages, with over 108,000 Hydro-Quebec customers in the dark at the height of the storm. That number is down to under 6500 Tuesday afternoon. Across eastern Ontario, an additional 20,000 residents were without power. 

In Sainte-Barbe southwest of Montreal,  seven hydro poles were snapped in half. The same fate occurred near Iroquois in eastern Ontario. Several roads were closed as blowing and drifting snow made travel treacherous, with near-blizzard conditions reported off island Monday afternoon. There were multiple crashes including one that closed Highway 40 near Pointe-Fortune on the Ontario border. North to south rural routes were impacted the most, with both the SQ and OPP closing several highways into the evening hours.

The front moved through Montreal around midnight, dumping a quick 2 to 5cm of wind-driven snow, resulting in a slick and slow Tuesday morning commute.

High wind warning for Montreal with snow squalls possible

Red sky in morning usually means a strong front or storm is advancing from the west. Such is the case Monday morning in Montreal, as clouds are thickening up from the west in advance of a strong arctic front. That front will produce winds of up to 90km/h and snow squalls this afternoon and evening. Temperatures will drop quickly behind the front resulting in a cold and blustery Tuesday.

UPDATED 11:45AM

High Wind Warning remains in effect for Montreal for southwest winds 50-90km/h from late afternoon towards midnight.

A high wind warning is in effect for the St. Lawrence Valley of southern Quebec, eastern Ontario and New York State. Strong low pressure passing well north of our region will drag a strong arctic cold front through Montreal late this evening. In advance of the front, strong southwest winds are picking up this morning, already in the 30-50km/h range. The winds will continue to increase, reaching speeds of 50-90km/h, with gusts to 100km/h (60 MPH). The wind will ease overnight, backing to the northwest at speeds of 40-60km/h and persisting Tuesday.

Winds of this speed are capable of producing power outages as well as some damage. In addition to the strong winds, snow squalls may develop along the front from late afternoon towards midnight. The squalls will be capable of brief heavy snow, with reduced visibilities and near-blizzard conditions at times. Accumulations should be light, with less than 5cm expected for most locations.

Temperatures will start the day off mild, as warm as 0C (32F) for some locations, but fall rapidly behind the front, down to -10C (14F) by Tuesday morning, remaining steady on Tuesday. Another round of light snow is possible for Montreal on Wednesday.

The active weather pattern will continue all week and into the first few days of February, with several chances for snow and wind as well as highly changeable temperatures. Stay tuned!

Active weather week ahead for Montréal - snowy & windy

Saturday was crisp and cold across southern Quebec, with the coldest morning low observed in nearly two years. The temperatures dropped to between -20 and -25C across the region, with -20.7C at Trudeau Airport. We can expect more cold, snow and wind this week, with dangerous travel conditions at times.

Strong winds, snow and blowing snow, reduced visibility and dropping temperatures are forecast from late Monday into Tuesday morning across the region. Weather warnings may be needed.

The last week of January will be quite active across southern Quebec and eastern Ontario. Several clipper systems along with associated fronts will cross the region, each with snow, strong winds and dropping temperatures. Monday afternoons front will be strong, with wind gusts anticipated in the 40-70km/h range, with the potential to reach 100km/h (650 MPH) locally. Winds that strong are capable of producing power outages. In addition to the wind, we can expect a burst of moderate to heavy snow along the front, with as much as 5cm falling. Combined with the strong winds, some area outside the metro regions may experience near-blizzard conditions.

The blowing snow will make for very dangerous travel conditions on Monday afternoon and evening. The front is expected in the Montreal region during the late afternoon, and may coincide unfortunately with the evening commute.

The mild weather of Sunday and Monday, will be replaced by rapidly dropping temperatures behind the front, from highs of 0C to -3C (27-32F) down to -15C (5F) by Tuesday morning. The aforementioned strong winds will also produce brutal windchill values, down into the -20's on Tuesday.

Temperatures will remain cold through Friday, along with more wind and snow as several more clippers cross the region in a very fast moving zonal flow. Each front will be capable of producing snowfall and gusty winds. We are looking at a system Wednesday and another by Friday.

Weather warnings may be needed for the wind event on Monday afternoon, and a high wind watch is already in effect for the US side of the St. Lawrence Valley.

On Saturday morning, Montreal recorded our coldest overnight low in nearly two years, with the temperature dropping to -20.7C (-5.3F). It was the first -18C (sub zero F) low for the city since February 2023.

Historic Gulf Coast snowstorm

The Sunshine State? Walton County in the Florida Panhandle was just one of many regions hit by an historic snowstorm on Tuesday, that had snow falling along the Gulf Coast beaches. Some parts of Florida have more snow on the ground Wednesday morning than we have here in Montreal. (Walton County Sheriff Photo)

Many parts of the Interstate 10 corridor from Houston to the Florida Panhandle had more snow on Tuesday than any single storm that has affected Montreal this winter. The snow fell right down to the beaches of the Gulf of Mexico, including the barrier islands. It was a once-in-a-lifetime event, with snowfall records shattered  in several communities.

In Texas, 4 inches (10cm) of snow fell in Houston, closing every major highway in the city. In New Orleans, 8 inches (20cm) was measured, with snow on Canal Street and in the French Quarter. That crushed the record of 2.7 inches (6cm) set on December 31, 1963. It was the most snow in over 100 years for many Louisiana locations. The entire state was covered with snow right down to Grand Island on the Gulf. The snow spread east and north into Mississippi, Alabama and Florida. Mobile, Alabama measured 7.5 inches (18cm) surpassing the 1985 record of  6 inches (15cm). Records date back to 1881 at that location. The sunshine state set an all-time record, with 9.8 inches (24.5cm) falling at Milton in the Panhandle. This broke the record of 4 inches (10cm), set back in 1954 at the same location. Snow blanketed the beaches from Pensacola to Panama City.

Record breaking snowfall at Orange Beach, Alabama right on the Gulf of Mexico. (Orange Beach Police Department Photo)

On Wednesday, the snow is spreading northeast into Georgia and the Carolinas. The entire region is being affected by arctic high pressure that has moved south into the Ohio Valley, taking the coldest of the arctic air into the Untied States. Meanwhile low pressure developed in the Gulf of Mexico, and move northeast into central Florida and eventually the Atlantic Ocean. The low was responsible for all the snow and ice.

The Gulf Coast storm will be followed by dangerously cold air across the deep south, which will begin to warm by the weekend. For now travel remains very dangerous, with snow covered and icy roads in places that do not have the equipment to deal with it.

For comparison, the biggest one-day snowfall in Montreal so far this winter was 7.8cm (3 inches) on December 8. Montreal still has not officially recorded a -18C (0F) or colder temperature at Trudeau Airport in nearly 2 years. Wednesday mornings low was the coldest of the winter to date, -17.7C.

The Arctic airmass moderated before arriving in Southern Quebec, the coldest temperature I recorded at my home was -19C (-2F) on Monday evening. Cloud cover and light southwest winds have actually maintained milder air in our region.

Sherbrooke overnight into Wednesday morning dropped to -27C, while other parts of Quebec were as cold as -40C. Temperatures will begin to slowly warm over the next few days in Montreal. After sunshine on Wednesday, several weak weather systems will bring some light snow into the weekend. No major storms are on the horizon for southern Quebec at this time.

Arctic air settles across eastern North America

A snowy scene in Senneville last week. Mild temperatures on Saturday dropped 3.2mm of rain on Montreal, melting away some of the snow that has accumulated this month. Officially, only 2cm of snow remain on the ground at Trudeau Airport. Many parts of the US have more snowfall this winter. (Valley Weather Photo)  

Skies have cleared out Monday morning across southern Quebec, with temperatures dropping close to -18C (0F) at many locations. Ottawa is down to -20C (-4F). Monday will be cold and blustery in Montreal, as a winter storm pulls into Atlantic Canada and arctic high pressure surges across the Great Lakes.

We can expect temperatures to remain pretty much where they are for highs today, perhaps -15C (5F). Tonight, depending on how much cloud cover moves into the St. Lawrence Valley from lake effect snow, we may drop as cold as -20C. The official forecast calls for a low of -17C (2F). Both Tuesday and Wednesday will be cold, with partly cloudy skies at times and perhaps a stray snow shower or two. Highs will range from -12C to -15C, with lows -17C to -21C. Gusty northwest winds, especially on Tuesday, will result in windchill values in the minus 20s. 

A clipper system will bring 1-3cm of snow late Wednesday, along with moderating temperatures.

Montreal is once again in the middle of a rather snowless winter, with officially only 2cm on the ground at Trudeau Airport. The seasonal total sits at 53.8cm. The last time Montreal had a 20cm snowfall was April 4, 2024, which was the largest storm last winter. The last time Montreal had a significant storm was December 3, 2023, when 21.8cm fell, with a two day total of 35.4cm.

Snow and freezing rain will spread across the deep southern US this week from Texas to North Carolina, including Florida. (AccuWeather Image)

Once in a generation Southern Snowstorm

The cold air will spread south all the way to the Gulf of Mexico early this week, while lo pressure develops in the Gulf and moves northeast. On Tuesday, snow and freezing rain will sweep across regions that have not had winter weather in decades. Forecasters are expecting a swath of 10-15cm (4-6 inches) of snow from Houston to New Orleans to Mobile northeast into Georgia and the Carolinas. A significant ice storm is also expected with 5-15mm if freezing rain possible across the Mississippi and Florida Gulf Coasts. This includes parts of the Florida Panhandle as far east as Jacksonville. Winter storm warnings stretch from Texas to North Carolina including Florida.

This may be a once in a generation storm for many. The last snowfall of 2.5cm (1 inch) in New Orleans was over 15 years ago. The record for that city is 6cm (2.7 inches) set on December 31, 1962. Many southern cities are set to break there all time snow and ice records.

Coldest air of the season set to move into southern Quebec

We had more snow again this week in Montreal. So far this January, between 20 and 30cm of fresh snow has fallen across the metro region. We have had at least a trace of snow measured each day this month through January 16, with the exception of Friday, January 10. (Valley Weather Photo)

An arctic airmass will invade southern Quebec late this upcoming weekend, ushering in the coldest air so far this season, and likely colder than anything we experienced last winter.

Temperatures were very mild during the winter of 2023-2024, with no readings below -18C (0F) for the entire season in Montreal. So far this winter, I managed to just sneak below the -18C threshold at my home on Ile Perrot, down to -18.3C (-1F) on December 26. In general you need to go back to February 2023 for the last significant cold snap in the city. Montreal dropped to -29.3C (-21F) on February 4. That brief cold spell closed schools and strained Hydro resources for a day or two.

The upcoming arctic weather will not be that drastic, but will certainly feel much colder than most of us are accustomed to with the recent warmer-than-normal winters.

Before the cold air arrives, we are looking at yet another clipper system Thursday, that will be responsible for some nuisance snow, perhaps a dusting to 1cm. The flurries will end Thursday night, with partly cloudy skies expected on Friday. Expect very mild temperatures, with highs between 0C and -3C (27 to 32F) through Saturday and lows not falling far from those readings.

On Saturday, low pressure passing well north of Montreal will give us a shot of mild air on gusty south winds just in advance of a strong cold front. That front will cross the region late Saturday, accompanied by snow and gusty winds. Another front arrives late Sunday, with light snow and a reinforcing shot of cold air. By Monday, highs will struggle into the minus teens, with overnight lows through Wednesday morning colder than -20C (-4F) in Montreal. Windchill readings will drop into the minus 30s.

Arctic high pressure will settle over southern Quebec on Monday, with clear and frigid conditions forecast.

I will post further updates as the details become a little more clear. Plan for some very cold temperatures, dangerous windchills and more snow through the end of this month.

Critical fire weather remains across southern California

One of four Quebec Super Scoopers battling the flames in southern California over the past week. The CL-415 Aircraft is capable of scooping up 6000 litres of water in seconds. The battle from the air has been crucial in slowing the spread of the fires. The incredible photo was taken by @FIREPHOTOGIRL and posted on X.

Gusty Santa Ana winds continue to blow across southern California, along with critically low humidity readings. These conditions are expected to persist through Thursday before easing on Friday as winds turn more onshore bringing in a moist marine layer.

California is reeling from days of severe wildfires that have claimed at least 24 lives, resulted in evacuations of over 150,000 residents and destroyed over 15,000 dwellings. Many historic buildings have been lost, with entire neighbourhoods incinerated, including the picturesque Pacific Palisades.

According to Cal Fire, the Eaton Fire has consumed 14,000 acres and is 33 percent contained as of Tuesday morning. The Palisades Fire has scorched over 24,000 acres and is only 14 percent contained. The 2025 fire season is off to a fast start, well ahead of the 5-year average of 46 fires consuming 13 acres. To date there have been over 100 fires burning 39,000 acres.

Early estimates on damage are exceeding $250 billion, making the California Fires the costliest natural disaster in US history. Those amounts are only expected to rise.

The wildfires were the result of a perfect storm. Since October 1st, Los Angeles has recorded less than 1mm of rainfall, with only 4-7mm since May 1st. The tinder dry region was primed for a severe wildfire. Once started, they were driven by fierce Santa Ana winds that gusted over 120km/h. These winds are hot, dry winds the blow from the desert, howling through the mountain canyons to the Pacific Ocean. High pressure to the north, in this case over Idaho and low pressure to the south, squeezes the winds through the mountain passes, while drying out the atmosphere even more. The offshore winds easily spread any fire that may start. 

Investigators are still trying to determine the cause of the fire, which can range from electrical, such as in Maui, to lightning as is often the case here in Quebec, this was not the case in L.A., or by humans either in error or by arson. Once started, the powerful winds spread the fire quickly, at one point the Palisades fire was consuming as much as 5 football fields every minute. Embers can travel miles away igniting homes far from the fire source and creating new wildfires.

Canadian Help

Canada continues to help California, with aircraft from Quebec, Ontario, Alberta and British Colombia down south. This includes four CL-415 Super Scoopers from Quebec. One was damaged in a collision with a drone late last week, but landed safely. The plane remains grounded, but has been replaced along with additional crews. We have also sent at least 250 firefighters. Help has also arrived from 9 US States and Mexico.

More snow this week along with milder temperatures

Snow has fallen in Montreal on 12 of the 13 days so far this month. Amounts have not been all that impressive, with only 17.4cm falling at Trudeau Airport. Despite the light amounts, roads have often been icy and snow covered, with numerous accidents occurring across the region. You do not need a large accumulation of snow for dangerous travel conditions. Light amounts of snow often create very slippery roads and black ice. (Valley Weather Photo)

The active weather pattern will persist this week across southern Ontario and Quebec, with several weak systems impacting our weather. Monday morning features a clipper type low pressure moving across the region, accompanied by occasional light snow. The snow will make the roads greasy and messy as it did over the weekend, but will only amount to a couple of centimetres at best.

The one concern will be Monday afternoon along a trailing cold front. There is the chance for a few isolated snow squalls, that could produce brief heavy snow and gusty winds, reducing visibility. The best chance in the Montreal region will be between 3-6pm this afternoon. Along and behind the cold front, winds will back to the northwest and gust up to 40km/h.

Temperatures will be mild today, just below the freezing point in Montreal, and remain above normal for most of the upcoming week. Highs will be in the 0C to -4C (25 to 32F) range, with overnight lows around -8C (18F). If we manage any clearing overnight this week, with fresh snow cover, we may see some minus teens.

The week will remain unsettled, with several areas of weak low pressure moving rapidly from west to east. While precipitation amounts have been below normal so far in January, we have received at least a trace of snow everyday since the start of the month, with the exception of last Friday. As a result, 17.4cm of fresh snow has fallen at Trudeau Airport, with as much as 25cm in other parts of southern Quebec.

A stronger storm system is possible by next Saturday, followed by a significant push of arctic air. I will post more on that later, as well as an update on the devastating fires in southern California.

Cold snowy week for Montreal

Crews have been kept busy across southern Quebec, with snow falling each day so far this month. As of Wednesday morning, between 10 and 15cm has fallen across the Montreal region, with more east and southeast of the city. Another 5-10cm of likely over the next 24 hours, along with gusty west winds up to 50km/h and bitter windchills. (Valley Weather Photo)

Frigid air has settled over southern Quebec on Wednesday as stubborn low pressure northeast of the region draws down cold air. The upper low is also producing gusty northwest winds and occasional snow. Close to 5cm fell on the Montreal area on Tuesday, and another 5 to 10cm is likely over the next 24 hours. Blowing and drifting snow can be expected as well, due to the strong northwest winds.

The snow and very cold temperatures have left roads very slippery across the region. Winds have been gusting between 30 and 50km/h at Trudeau Airport, producing wind-chill values as cold as -25C (-13C) in Montreal. Temperatures will struggle to rise today and into the overnight period to around -10C (14F) by Thursday morning. Winds will remain gusty throughout the period, so conditions will be rather uncomfortable outdoors. Cloudy skies will persist on Thursday, along with few flurries. We may see a few peaks of sunshine on Friday, but temperatures will remain at or below normal for January for the foreseeable future.

FIRE & ICE

Winter weather has also been occurring across wide portions of the United States. A new storm this week will deliver snow and freezing rain across the deep south from Texas to the Carolinas. Meanwhile powerful Santa Ana winds have been driving fierce wildfires across the Los Angeles County region of southern California, pushing first responders to the limit. Nearly 1000 dwellings have been destroyed by the raging fires, that are being driven by winds in excess of 160km/h (100 mph). Two main fires, the Palisades and Hurst fires continue out of control on Wednesday. The Palisades alone fire has consumed over 3000 acres and is zero percent contained at this time.

Santa Ana winds have been howling across Southern California, driving fire storms that have destroyed entire neighbourhoods over the last 24 hours. Many fires are burning, stretching the limits of first responders. Fire conditions remain very dangerous Wednesday afternoon across LA County.

Chilly start to 2025 in Montreal

A major thaw resulted in all our snow melting away just prior to New Year's Day. Since then, we have had almost daily flurries and snow showers that have made roads slippery at times, and accumulated a general 5-10cm of snow across southern Quebec., More light snow and cold temperatures can be expected for the upcoming week. (Valley Weather Photo)

High pressure has been trying to nose into southern Quebec over the last few days, but a stubborn low pressure located well to the north of our region has been producing a cold northwest flow, along with occasional flurries and snow showers. The result has been cold blustery conditions of the last 48 hours, with nearly steady temperatures between -10C (14F) and -12C (10F). Winds have been between 20-40km/h, with a gust to 79km/h at Trudeau Airport on Thursday.

Most of the snow has been very light, but some isolated bands produced moderate snow briefly overnight into Sunday morning. Since January 1, between 5 and 10cm of snow has fallen across most of southern Quebec. Further west across the Great Lakes, very heavy lake effect snow fell in isolated bands, reducing visibility to zero at times, closing several highways immediately adjacent to the lakes in central and southern Ontario.

The same was true south of the border in western New York. Further south a strong winter storm was spreading snow and ice form the central plains, across the Ohio and Tennessee Valley and into the Middle Atlantic states. Freezing rain created havoc on roads across Kansas on Saturday, with hundreds of miles of interstates closed down after several multi-vehicle accidents.

In Montreal, we can expect cold temperatures to persist this week, but nothing exceptional, just January weather. Some light snow is possible on Monday evening into Tuesday morning, along with flurries through Thursday. We may briefly see the sun next Friday before another chance for snow arrives next weekend. At this time, none of the systems look particularly strong, with just a few centimetres expected.

Highs will range from -6C to -10C, with overnight lows between -10C and -17C. It is worth noting that if skies can manage to clear out and winds ease Sunday evening, some locations across the Montreal region may drop close to -20C (-4F). This would be the coldest night in the last two years. As I write, skies are clear in Montreal and the current temperature is -13C (7F).

Happy New Year!

With just a couple of hours to go in 2024, the year will end above freezing. The current temperature is 3.1C (38F) on Ile Perrot, we will not drop below 0C (32F) before midnight. A fitting end to what will likely be one of the warmest years on record for southern Quebec once the numbers are processed.

Precipitation is moving east across central Ontario currently and should arrive in the Montreal region during the pre-dawn hours New Years Day. Expect a messy mix of rain and snow throughout the day, along with dropping temperatures and increasing winds.

Have a very safe and happy new year, be kind to each other. Thank you for reading Valley Weather for the last 20 years...Stephen

Snow and cold return to Montreal to start 2025

While Christmas Eve was snowy and cold in Montreal, New Year's Eve looks more like early November. The record warmth of Monday has virtually eliminated all our snow in just a few hours. More snow is on the way however, as the weather pattern turns much colder and stormy to start 2025.

Happy New Year! 2025 will mark the 20th Anniversary of the Valley Weather Blog and the 46th year for Valley Weather. There was plenty of weather to talk about in 2024, none bigger than the billions of dollars in flood damage that occurred in Quebec from the remains of both hurricanes Beryl and Debby.

The year will end on a very mild note, we are currently 6C (43F) here on Ile Perrot, warm, but far from the 1875 record of 12.2C (54F). We did have a significant record high on Monday, reaching 11.4C (53F) at Trudeau Airport shattering the 2022 record of 8.6C (48F). Most of the snow cover has melted away, with the exception of a few patches here and there.

Winter will return however as we have a major pattern change on the way to begin 2025. It starts with deepening low pressure passing to our south across New England on New Year's Day, delivering steady precipitation across southern and eastern Ontario and Quebec. The storm will then head into Atlantic Canada.

The precipitation will start off as a messy mix of rain and snow, but as temperatures drop on Wednesday afternoon, all precipitation will change to snow. The snow will persist into Thursday morning, along with increasing winds out of the northwest and dropping temperatures. Accumulations will range from 5-10cm in valley locations to more than 15cm across the mountains of the Townships, Beauce, New York and New England. If you have travel plans on New Year's Day, expect highly changeable conditions with mixed precipitation and reduced visibility at times.

Look for windy, cold weather along with isolated flurries into the first weekend of the new year. Lows will drop into the minus teens, with daytimes highs struggling to rise above -10C (14F). The cold air will be with us well into the month of January.

Record warmth to end 2024 - winter will return this week

Before temperatures warmed Sunday evening, motorists were greeted with icy and foggy conditions late Saturday into Sunday morning. Since then however, temperatures have surged into the low teens in southern Quebec, and most of the snow on the ground has melted. Much colder weather returns by Thursday. (Valley Weather Photo)

A warm front finally lifted north of the St. Lawrence Valley early Monday morning, allowing very warm air to surge into southwestern Quebec. Granby reached 14C (58F), the warmest location in Canada, while Montreal settled in at 11C (52F), a new record high for the date, surpassing the previous of 8.6C (48F) set in 2022. Temperatures will slowly fall through the rest of the day Monday. Gusty winds are expected to develop, up to 50km/h at times.

After what was a very warm year, it is no surprise that we will end 2024 above freezing. While a cool front is on our doorstep this morning, temperatures are expected to remain well-above normal, right into New Year's Day. The weekend freezing rain and fog has dissipated, and now warm southwest winds and rain are eating away whatever snowpack was left in Montreal. Over the last few hours, we have recorded close to 10mm of rain.

This is a good time to remind everyone to stay away from area lakes and rivers. The ice is thin, unstable and dangerous, and the water is frigid and moving quickly.

As far as practical weather goes, we can expect showers to persist off and on through New Year's Eve, along with dropping temperatures. Temperatures should remain above freezing through Wednesday. By mid week, low pressure will develop along the east coast and draw in much colder air into Montreal, along with a swath of snow across our region. Depending on how fast we cool down here in the St. Lawrence Valley, we may be looking at 5-10cm of snow on the ground by Thursday morning.

The snow will be followed by an arctic blast that will plunge temperatures below freezing across much of eastern North America. The extended forecast for January across most of southern Ontario, Quebec and New England, is for cold and snowy conditions, perhaps a more typical Montreal January for a change.

Time will tell...

Wet and warm weather forecast to end 2024 in Montreal

Boxing Day morning was spectacular but chilly in Montreal, with frost painted trees against a vivid blue sky here in the St. Lawrence Valley. (Valley Weather) 

Happy Holidays to everyone no matter what you are celebrating this week. For me, it has been a perfect Christmas holiday so far, with nearly ideal weather conditions for anyone who loves snow at this time of year. The fresh 10-20cm that fell on on Christmas Eve was followed by cold conditions, allowing for outdoor activates such as skating, skiing or sledding for the first time during the holidays in a few years.

At the same time, driving conditions have been good over the last 48 hours, with the exception of some isolated valley fog as well as a few slick spots on bridges and elevated surfaces especially late overnight and during the early morning hours.

We have had a temperature inversion here in the St. Lawrence Valley, which has meant colder air has been trapped at the surface while it warm air streams aloft at higher elevations. This has resulted in poor air quality here in Montreal at times, with a smog warning in effect for the city. Temperatures have dropped into the minus teens overnight, only rising to around -8C (18F) during the day.

We have one more day of these wintry conditions, before high pressure drifts east and is replaced by a series of warm fronts and low pressure systems. The first system on Saturday will produce warmer temperatures along with spotty freezing rain. By Sunday and into New Years Eve, temperatures will rise well above freezing, perhaps as warm as 6C (43F), accompanied by a decent amount of rainfall. Amounts may exceed 25mm (1 inch) here in Montreal.

By New Years Day and the start of 2025, colder air returns along with mixed precipitation at times. More details to follow. For now, you may want to clear downspouts of snow and ice in anticipation of the heavy rain expected Sunday and Monday.

White Christmas for southern Quebec and eastern Ontario

It was a perfect Christmas Eve morning walk with my pup here on Ile Perrot this December 24. Light snow was falling, adding to the 10cm or so that already accumulated overnight. The snow has now ended, and we can expect a dry and chilly end to the week for any holiday travel plans. Precipitation returns by the weekend, along with much warmer temperatures. (Valley Weather)

If you are an outdoor enthusiast, or just nostalgic for snow at this time of year, then you will be happy with the 12 to 15cm of fresh snow that fell across southern Quebec over the last 12 hours. Ottawa reported 17cm with Mirabel measuring 7cm. The snow was fairly light in nature, but still enough to cover roads and make travel slippery overnight. There were numerous incidents reported by police along the 417/40 corridor to Ottawa.

The low pressure responsible for the snow has moved rapidly into the Gulf of Maine Tuesday afternoon, with all warnings now dropped and precipitation over. Skies will remain mostly cloudy this afternoon and into Christmas Day, with a few breaks and light northerly winds. The high today will be close to -6C (21F), dropping to -16C (3F) overnight, and remaining chilly on Wednesday, at -10C (14F).

High pressure will move across the region, but an inversion will keep plenty of cloud cover in the valleys. By the weekend, we expect our next weather system to arrive in southern Quebec, along with warming temperatures and the threat for mixed precipitation.

If you have travel plans for Christmas or Hanukkah over the next 24 to 36 hours, roads should be in good shape. There me be a few icy spots around, especially secondary roads. Please travel with care and be courteous to fellow drivers.

Have a safe and happy holiday.

Winter weather travel advisory in effect for Montreal

Environment Canada has issued a winter weather travel advisory for the St. Lawrence Valley, including metro Montreal for 10 to 15cm of snow Monday night. The snow will make for very poor travel conditions, with snow covered roads and lowered visibility. Conditions will improve during the daylight hours on Tuesday. Christmas Day is forecast to be sunny and cold. (Transport Quebec)

Widespread winter weather advisories have been issued for portions of Ontario and southern Quebec. Those weather warnings include the St. Lawrence Valley and metro Montreal. An Alberta Clipper low pressure system is expected to cross the Great Lakes and travel south of Montreal on Monday night. A swath of steady snow will spread southeast across eastern Ontario on Monday, and reach Montreal after 8pm. The snow will be moderate at times, persisting into Tuesday morning.

We can expect a decent 10 to 15cm of snow from late Monday evening into the Tuesday morning commute in Montreal, with 5 to 10cm expected elsewhere across southern Quebec. As much as 20cm could fall in the Ottawa Valley. For that reason and the fact the snow is coming during the start of the busy holiday travel period, the advisories were issued. Roads will become slippery and in many cases snow covered. Temperatures will remain cold with this system, so the precipitation will remain as snow for the duration of the event. Highs will be -5C to -7C Monday and Tuesday, with morning lows in the minus teens on Christmas Day. 

Travel conditions will be poor areawide Monday night, but will improve rapidly from west to east on Christmas Eve Tuesday.

Winter arrived in the pre-dawn hours Saturday, and along with it came the coldest air of the season. The morning low in Montreal on Saturday was -15.9C (4F), dropping to -17C (2F) Sunday morning. Gusty west winds produced wind chill values in the minus 20s at times Saturday.

We expect another cold night Sunday into Monday morning, as arctic high pressure crests over the region. If we reach -18C (0F) or colder Monday morning, it will be the lowest temperature recorded since February 25, 2023 when Trudeau Airport dropped to -20.4C. During the entire winter of 2023/2024, Trudeau Airport did not report one low temperature at or below -18C (0F).

Skies should clear out on Christmas Day, with sunshine forecast, but cold highs near -10C (14F). Temperatures will moderate for the balance of the week, reaching the freezing point by the weekend.

Winter weather returns to Montreal to start the holidays

A clipper system brought a slushy 1-3cm of snow to southern Quebec on Wednesday evening. Another shot of snow Friday, followed by the coldest air of the season, will likely result in a white Christmas for Montreal. This has been rather difficult to obtain in recent years, with six of the last ten years officially green at Trudeau Airport. Environment Canada defines a white Christmas as at least 2cm of snow on the ground at 7AM on December 25.

Expect another shot of light snow for Montreal late Friday into early Saturday, followed by the coldest air of the season to date this weekend.

With Christmas and the holidays right around the corner, colder weather is on the way as early as Thursday. But will it last?

The reality of the fall and winter season this year as it was in 2023, is that we cannot sustain cold air for very long. The result has been above to well-above normal temperatures, interrupted by a day or two of cold weather.

We experienced that this week, with the coldest air of the season to date arriving last weekend, followed by temperatures soaring to nearly 8C (48F) on Tuesday, with rain. So far this month, as a result of the mild temperatures, we have had 46.8mm of rain, with only 24.2cm of snow falling at Trudeau. Only a trace of snow fell in the city in November. Very little remains on the ground.

That brings us to the current forecast and any hopes for a whiter Christmas. A clipper system moved south of the province on Tuesday, with a messy mix of rain and snow in Montreal. In the end, a slushy 1-3cm of snow fell, that has since frozen Thursday morning as temperatures fall quickly behind the system. We will drop to -8C (17F) late Thursday afternoon, and -12C (10F) by Friday morning.

WINTER SOLSTICE

Winter officially arrives at 4:21 AM Saturday morning, and with it will be coldest air of the season so far as temperatures drop to -18C (0F) or colder for morning lows and struggle into the minus teens for daytime highs. The cold will be accompanied by gusty northwest winds and biting windchill values. On Friday, we can expect another 2-4cm of snow as a second clipper system slides to the south of Montréal.

This low will eventually merge with a developing coastal low bringing Atlantic Canada a significant storm.

For Christmas and the holidays, southern Quebec can expect a warming trend once again, with highs approaching the freezing point in Montreal by Boxing Day. While no major storms are on the horizon currently, there will be some nuisance precipitation for most of next week.

Heavy rainfall warning posted for southern Quebec

An icy glaze coats the trees and roads early Tuesday morning after close to 9mm of mixed precipitation fell on the Montréal region overnight. More rain is on the way over the next 24-36 hours. (Valley Weather Photo)

Freezing Rain Warning through 11AM.

Heavy Rain Warning Wednesday.

Storm one is nearly done for Montreal, storm two is on the way.

We still have some very light freezing rain and drizzle around southern Quebec Tuesday morning, making for a slippery commute. Late Monday and overnight, close to 9mm of precipitation fell on the city, first as snow and blowing snow, followed by freezing rain since midnight. Temperatures remain stubbornly below freezing in the St. Lawrence Valley, currently -2C (29F) here on Ile Perrot. The freezing rain should end by noon as temperatures warm to a high of 4C (39F).

A heavy rainfall warning goes into effect this evening for Montreal and the Eastern Townships, with flood watches across Vermont and parts of New England. Deepening low pressure will lift from the middle Atlantic states across New Hampshire and into southern Quebec on Wednesday. The storm will draw in deep Atlantic moisture, producing heavy rain across our regions. The combination of heavy rain, melting snow and frozen ground, will create significant runoff and rises in area lakes and rivers. At this time 25-50mm is forecast through early Thursday. As the storm moves north of our region, cold air will filter in chaning any leftover rain to snow. A few centimetres are possible.

As temperatures drop on Thursday, we can expect very icy conditions. In addition to the heavy rain, winds will begin to increase, especially on Thursday, gusting up to 70km/h at times.

Stormy weather week ahead for the St. Lawrence Valley

Between 10 and 20cm of snow fell across the Montreal region Saturday night and early Sunday morning as the first widespread storm of the season moved across southern Québec. After a breezy, cold Monday, more snow, freezing rain and rain is on the way for the balance of the work week.

Expect difficult driving conditions at times this week, with a wide variety of precipitation and highly changeable temperatures across the region.

We can expect a brief break on Monday between the 10 and 20cm of snow that fell over the weekend and our next storm system rapidly on the horizon. It will be a very stormy week here in southern Quebec. The temperature roller coaster will persist as warm and cold air continues to battle over our region. After a cold, windy day Monday, with a high of -5C (23F), temperatures will rise on Tuesday, well-above freezing to 4C (39F).

Before then however, we can expect a burst of moderate snow right around the evening commute Monday, as a warm front lifts northeast across the region. The snow will certainly have an impact on the rush hour drive in Montreal, with as much as 5cm of snow this evening. As temperatures rise overnight, the snow will mix with and change to freezing rain in the St. Lawrence Valley, with a couple of millimetres of ice accretion possible. The freezing rain will taper off to showers Tuesday morning. Expect icy roads for the Tuesday morning commute.

Streets were snow covered across the Montreal region in the pre-dawn hours Sunday morning, but quick work by Transport Quebec and contractors, as well as milder temperatures Sunday, quickly melted the snow from most roads.

On Wednesday, a more impactful storm system is forecast to develop along the eastern seaboard and deepen rapidly as it moves north across New England and into Quebec. Heavy rain is forecast, with as much as 25mm for many locations in southern Quebec including Montreal. Temperatures will be very mild with the system, up to 5C (41F), so expect lots of melting and ponding of water. Some minor flooding is possible, especially south and east of the city and across Vermont and parts of New York State.

Further west in the Ottawa Valley, less rain is expected, but more snow may fall as that region drops below freezing earlier on Wednesday.

Another component of the storm will be strong winds, gusting up to 70km/h at times. As the storm moves northeast of Montreal, a strong cold front will sweep east bringing much colder temperatures along with a rapid freeze as any leftover rain changes to snow Wednesday night.

Thursday will be windy and colder with clearing skies, a brief break again before yet another storm arrives next weekend with more precipitation.