A soaker on tap

We share a forecast area with upstate New York and northern Vermont. Often the forecasts from Environment Canada and the National Weather Service in the US can be so different it makes you wonder if they read each others forecast products. Today is one of those times. They both agree it will be wet for the next several days, but our US colleagues have posted a Flood Watch and are forecasting between 50-100mm (2-4 inches) of rain through Friday with even higher amounts, especially in the St. Lawrence Valley. On this side of the border the forecast calls for 15-25mm or close to an inch of rain with perhaps another 10mm on Friday. Time will tell. The culprit is low pressure over the Midwest and an elongated warm front south of the lower lakes. The warm front will move north and become stationary across upstate New York. It will become the axis for very heavy rain late tonight and Thursday. As the front very slowly lifts north of the region we can expect isolated thunderstorms to occur from late Thursday in Friday morning. These will add to the heavy rain event. The potential exists for some small stream flooding and ponding of water on roadways, especially along the US border. Winds will be gusty out of the northeast, and it will be cool today and Thursday and warm slightly to near normal Friday. The weekend at this point looks better, but it is early in the week.