Friday, January 16, 2015

Frigid Friday - potential weekend storm for Quebec

The track of the storm forecast for late Sunday has become rather difficult to pinpoint. This will dictate how much snow falls in Montreal as we remain on the edge of the precipitation shield. It could be significant.
We are awaiting the arrival of an arctic front slipping across the Ottawa Valley early this morning. Along the front is a brief shot of heavy snow and blowing snow dropping 2-4cm with gusty winds. Behind it more cold air pouring into the region. Montreal is currently -3C (27F), our high for the day. Temperatures will drop towards -12C (10F) by days end and to -22C (-8F) overnight. Strong northwest winds up to 50km/h will produce dangerous wind chill values across Ontario, Quebec and northern New England today, especially on the ski hills. As quickly as temperatures fall today, they will begin to rebound Saturday and Sunday as warmer air circulates around low pressure developing south of the Great Lakes. Highs Saturday under partly cloudy skies will be -10C (14F) with 0C (32F) Sunday.

A second more potent storm still looks likely late Sunday into Monday for a portion of our area. The models continue to disagree on the track and intensity of the storm, leading to low forecast confidence at this time. It certainly looks like we will see accumulating snow late Sunday into the Monday morning commute in Montreal. At this point amounts and the exact location remain difficult at best. I am watching this closely and will post updates later today. In the meantime stay warm today and drive safe.

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