Monday, November 13, 2017

Record cold weekend - can the snow be far behind

The first cold air of the season blasted into southern Quebec last weekend. Some locations in Quebec and Ontario recorded their first measurable snow as well. Montreal only had a trace, but more is on the way, soon.  
Temperatures across southern Quebec are slowly moderating to start the work week, after record cold Friday and Saturday. Friday was an absolute shock to the system, as a record low temperature of -8.9C (16F) in Montreal, combined with howling winds over 50km/h, to produce mid-January like windchill values. After the warm fall we have had, it was a wake up call. More cold occurred Saturday, with a record low of -9.7C (14.5F), the old record low was -8.3C (17F) set in 1973. Those temperatures were at Trudeau Airport on the island, it was much colder in the suburbs. On Saturday, the mercury remained below freezing all day with a high of -1.3C. Thankfully the wind slowly diminished for Remembrance Day services. Some snow accompanied the cold air, with a trace to 1cm in Montreal. There were some icy spots on Friday, but roads were mostly clear in the city. The cold and threat of snow had motorists scrambling to get their winter tires on. The deadline in Quebec is December 15, but that is laughable at best. Trust me when I tell you, we will have significant snow before then, guaranteed.

Saturday was beautiful, but cold. The chilly St Lawrence Seaway looking south into New York State at  Johnstown, Ontario. (ValleyWX)
First Measurable Snow
With the arrival of the first arctic air of the season, and the ground now partially frozen, the first measurable snow can't be too far behind. A clipper-type low will arrive late Wednesday into Thursday, with a light rain and snow mix. Any accumulations will be confined to the higher elevations and points north of Montreal. Behind this weak system, cooler air will filter back into the region for Friday. By next weekend, a much stronger storm will approach from the southwest, once again look for a mix changing to a cold rain in Montreal. This storm has the potential to produce measurable snow in some locations, along with gusty winds. By Sunday, cooler air returns, with any precipitation changing back to flurries. At this time, next week looks colder than normal, with the chance for more snow by mid-week.

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