Flood risk on the decline - fire risk on the rise in Quebec

The warmer weather this week has allowed many of the tulips in Montreal to bloom. However a frost advisory is in effect Thursday night across the Eastern Townships, where lows could dip below freezing. 

The spring flood risk has somewhat stabilized across southern Quebec. Dry conditions over the past week have allowed the rivers around Montreal to level off. The story is much the same in the Ottawa Valley. South of Montreal, Lake Champlain remains at flood stage, with the high water levels expected to travel north into the Richelieu Valley. According to Hydro Meteo, a flood warning is now in effect for the Richelieu River. At this time however, only minor flooding is forecast. Since May 1st, only 18.6mm of rain had fallen in and around Montreal. On Thursday, a few showers were forecast, but this will have little impact on water levels. The average rainfall for Montreal in May is 81.2mm. By comparison, during the historic Quebec floods of 2017, 160mm fell in April and 124mm in May.

A large portion of southern Quebec is in the elevated fire risk zone (yellow and orange). Any outdoor burning should be done with extreme vigilance. (SOPFEU)

Reconsider outdoor burning
Expect a very dry airmass to arrive behind the cold front Thursday evening. Temperatures will fall back below normal, along with low relative humidity values. According to SOPFEU, the forest fire watchdog in Quebec, the forest and brush fire risk is elevated for metro Montreal and the Monteregie, and very high for the Townships and Quebec City. Any outdoor burning should be done with extreme care. At this time, two fires are burning in the province, comprising 25.6 hectares (63 acres).

Looking ahead to the upcoming weekend and early next week, little if any precipitation is expected for Montreal. The dry breezy weather will only add to the fire risk. Colder temperatures will arrive Thursday night, with lows forecast close to the freezing point in several locations. Some frost is likely north of Montreal and across the Eastern Townships. Temperatures through the weekend will remain chilly in Montreal, with daytime highs of 15 to 17C (59 to 63F) and lows from 6 to 8C (43 to 48F). Warmer weather is expected by next Monday, as highs climb back into the middle 20s.