Friday, December 24, 2021

Messy Christmas Day forecast for Montreal

A spectacular sunrise along the St. Lawrence River in Pointe-Claire, taken on the shortest day of the year. Winter arrived at 10:58 am on Tuesday, December 21. Daylight will slowly begin increasing as the days get longer.

Winter weather advisories are in effect across eastern Ontario, northern New York and Vermont for a period of freezing rain and snow on Christmas Day. No weather warnings are in place for southern Quebec at this time, but the same weather can be expected here, with a light wintry mix of precipitation. Travel with great care on Saturday.

The coldest air of the season has been over southern Quebec for the last 48 hours. Thursdays high of -9.4C (15F) was the coldest since last winter. Early Friday morning, the temperature dropped to -16C (3F) here on Ile Perrot, and combined with the light breeze, it felt as cold as the -20s while walking the dog. But I must admit, the weather seems just perfect for me for December 24.

Friday will be partly cloudy and cold, with daytime highs remaining around -10C (14F). The weather turns rather messy on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day across Ontario and Quebec. Low pressure, not a particularly strong storm, will slide across the lower Great Lakes into New York and eventually off the east coast. A warm front will lift north into New York State. Along and well to the north of the front, here in southern Quebec, precipitation will fall in the form of light snow and freezing rain.

I expect precipitation to begin late Christmas Eve in eastern Ontario and move into southwestern Quebec overnight. A centimetre or two of snow is possible before changing to freezing rain from Montreal south and west. The cold air will be difficult to scour out of the St. Lawrence Valley so despite warning temperatures aloft, ground temperatures will remain well-below freezing in Montreal. As a result, we can expect a few hours of light freezing rain across the region. North and east of Montreal, any precipitation will remain in the form of snow. Any mixed precipitation will taper off to flurries by late Christmas night.

The mix of precipitation and colder temperatures in the minus 5C to -7C range, along with gusty northeast winds, will make travel slick and highly changeable on area highways. Travel with great care Christmas Day. As we have already witnessed this winter, it does not take much frozen precipitation to create treacherous driving conditions.

Precipitation will end by early Sunday, with lingering clouds and a high of -2C (29F) forecast for Montreal.

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