Weather pattern change expected for southern Quebec

The weather this fall has been nothing short of spectacular in Montreal, with abundant sunshine, little rainfall, and temperatures well-above normal. We are starting to see a significant pattern change developing to end November and start December. While we can expect cooler temperatures and perhaps a few snowflakes, the weather will only be adjusting to seasonal normals for late November in Montreal and nothing too drastic. It still may be a shock to the system after such a warm fall.

Cooler wet weather on the way, with perhaps our first snowflakes in Montreal.

Until now most of this fall as been dry and warm. Temperatures have been running well-above normal values, along with sparse rainfall. The weather is expected to change significantly this week, with colder air and more wintry precipitation expected across a large portion of the country.

Before then, we can expect another fairly mild start to the work week, with high temperatures reaching the double digits yet again in Montreal, up to 10C (50F) Monday and Tuesday. A few very light showers Monday, will give way to high pressure and sunshine for both Tuesday and Wednesday.

At the same time, strengthening low pressure will bring a widespread snowfall along with gusty winds and much colder temperatures to the southern Prairie into northwest Ontario. By Thursday a developing upper level low will slip south across the Great Lakes, spinning up low pressure at the surface over southern New England. That storm system will result in a wet, cold and at times white period of weather for our region.

The combination of both systems will introduce slightly cooler air into southern Quebec, along with much needed rainfall, up to 25mm from Thursday into Saturday for Montreal. To date in November, we have only received 30mm of rain at Trudeau Airport. 

Most of our region has been dangerously dry this fall, stretching south into upstate New York and New England. There have been several brush fires, which is very unusual for November in our region. Normal precipitation for the month of November should be 84.2mm, that includes 16.3cm of snow. In October, Montreal only received 25mm of rain, the normal should be close to 103mm.

With cloud cover and a cold rain developing Thursday intoSaturday, temperatures will drop into the lower single digits for highs in Montreal and perhaps close to the freezing point for overnight lows. There may even be some upper elevation snowfall across the Laurentians and Eastern Townships with the system next weekend. Some computer models are hinting at 10-15cm of fresh snow for the ski regions south of Montreal. Time will tell.

SNOW?

Looking ahead, colder weather will prevail to end the month and to start December, with a couple of opportunities for our fist snowflakes of the season here in Montreal. We will get into the details in another post, but it looks like more seasonable weather is on the way. Get those winter tires on!

Colder weather week ahead for southern Quebec

Lest We Forget. Take time today to remember those who have served and continue to serve our great nation, so that we can enjoy the incredible freedom that we have in Canada.

The weather on this Remembrance Day Monday will be somewhat dreary as strong low pressure well north of the St. Lawrence Valley has lifted a warm front across Montreal this morning. If your are heading to any of the outdoor services in Montreal or Ottawa, dress for wet weather. Showers developed overnight and will persist most of the day. Close to 14mm has fallen at my weather station on Ile Perrot, much need moisture. Temperatures are mild, 10C (50F), with gusty southwest winds developing. Despite the cloud cover, the mild push of sir should drive the high today into the middle teens.

A strong cold front will push across the region late today. Temperatures will fall rapidly behind the front, down to the freezing point or perhaps below in a few spots by Tuesday morning. Strong southwest winds will develop late Monday, backing to the northwest overnight, gusting to 70km/h at times.

Winter weather has been hard to find across most of southern Canada. That was not the case in Colorado and New Mexico, and across the southern Rockies as strong low pressure produced a huge snowfall for many locations. Close to 50cm fell across the metro Denver region, the biggest November snowstorm in nearly 4 decades. (Accu-Weather Photo)

Some potent showers will accompany the front. Those showers could mix with a little wet snow or flurries overnight, especially across the higher elevations of the Laurentians and Eastern Townships.

Tuesday will be blustery and much colder, with winds of 30-50km/h and daytime highs struggling to reach 5C (41F). The balance of the week will be fair, but chilly. An Atlantic Canada storm system on the weekend may retrograde enough to produce some clouds and precipitation on Saturday, but that is not a certainty at all.

The storm that is affecting Quebec today, produced a record-breaking snowstorm across the southern Rockies in Colorado and New Mexico. Denver had its biggest November snowstorm in decades, with 49cm measured. Other locations south of Denver recorded as much as 135cm. It was a top 5 storms fro many localities across Colorado.

On the warm side of the storm, severe thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening produced some wind damage across southwest Ontario. There was even a rare November nocturnal tornado warned storm between Goderich and London, very uncommon north of the 45th at this time of year.

Another warm and windy Wednesday in Montreal

Despite the dwindling daylight, November is starting out much the same way the rest of the fall has been to date, warm, dry and windy. With the exception of a few days scattered about, most of the time, temperatures have been above to well-above the long-term average. (Valley Weather)

It seems we have a trend this fall of record-breaking warmth on Wednesdays. Last week we managed back to back records of 22.7C (72F) and 24.4C (76F). Today, the temperature is knocking on the door of the 1948 record of 21.7C (71F) at this hour, currently 21.4C (70F). Record or not, today's high is way above the normal of 7C (45F), but as I wrote last week, what is "normal" anymore when it comes to our weather. 

Gusty southwest winds ahead of a cold front are responsible for the surge in warm air. They are reaching speeds of 60-70km/h here in the St. Lawrence Valley. Hydro-Quebec is reporting scattered power outages as a result of the wind, with just over 13,000 in the dark.

Temperatures will begin to cool once again this evening, dropping to 9C (48F) tonight and remaining fairly steady on Thursday. A few showers are possible, but the bulk of the moisture with this system will remain well to our north.

High pressure will build into southern Quebec for a sunny, but chill Saturday, before clouds, warmer temperatures and some rainfall arrive for Sunday into Monday.

The current trend of a cool day or two, followed by a significant warming trend is expected to persist well into November.

October was warm and dry in Montreal. We only measured 25mm of rain, well below the normal of 91.3mm. The average temperature at Trudeau Airport was 11C, also well-above the normal of 8.9C.

Rare nocturnal November tornadoes produced widespread damage around Oklahoma City on Saturday night and Sunday morning. (KOCO)

Active Weather

The central portion of the continent has had some very active weather over the course of the past week, including some rare November tornadoes. At least a half dozen tornadoes occurred across parts of Texas and Oklahoma on Sunday. Numerous homes were demolished, with at least 11 injuries reported. There were also reports of significant flash flooding, with up to 300mm of rain falling from north Texas into Missouri.

NOAA satellite image of strengthening hurricane Rafael on Wednesday morning, located 205 kilometres south of Havana, Cuba.

Meanwhile the topics have awakened again. Early Wednesday morning, Rafael became a hurricane, located 205 km south, southeast of Havana, Cuba. Rafael has 175km/h winds and is expected to strengthen to a category 3 storm before landfall in western Cuba late Wednesday. Forecasters then expect the storm to meander around the southern Gulf of Mexico into the weekend, while weakening. So far the only impacts to the US mainland are expected to be gusty winds and a 3 foot storm surge in the lower Florida Keys.

Record-breaking warm Halloween for Montreal

This certainly is a most sincere pumpkin patch. Perhaps this and the record-breaking warmth forecast in Montreal for Halloween will allow us to finally meet The Great Pumpkin!

Warm and windy Halloween forecast for Trick or Treating in Montreal.

It is hard to believe that Halloween is upon us and equally hard to believe we are going to have temperatures in the middle 20s. A warm front lifted northeast across the St. Lawrence Valley late on Tuesday, ushering in warm southwest winds. Temperatures have soared in Montreal on Wednesday, reaching 23C (73F) on Ile Perrot as I write. That is 14 degrees above normal. It is currently 22.5 C (72F) at Trudeau Airport, breaking the record for today's date of 21.3C set in 2012.

On Thursday, we will break the record high of 21.7C (71F) that was established way back on Halloween in 1956. The forecast high is 23C (73F), but it may be even warmer, depending on cloud cover. This occurring in the same week when we had our coldest morning so far this season, -6C on Monday morning. Many locations even had some snow on the ground late Monday across eastern Ontario and northern New England. It truly is a roller coaster ride this season.

Cold temperatures and gusty winds early this week allowed the leaves to fall in bunches on Ile Perrot and across the Montreal region. Another round of strong winds is expected Thursday and Friday, first from the southwest up to 50km/h, backing to the northwest on Friday, 20-40km/h. That should pull down many of the remaining leaves from the trees across Southern Quebec.

The warm front produced about 8mm of rain in the Montréal region Tuesday, while across the Ottawa Valley, some surprise pop up thunderstorms produced heavy rain and hundreds of lightning strikes.

Partly cloudy skies and very warm temperatures are expected on Thursday, ahead of a cold front. Gusty southwest winds will reach speeds of 30-50km/h, likely blowing what is left of the leaves off the trees. The weather should remain dry for Trick or Treaters, with showers moving in towards the end of the evening as a cold front arrives from Ontario.

That front will drop temperatures sharply all day Friday to lows of -1C (30F) by Saturday morning. The weekend should be fair, but chilly, especially in relation to our current weather. Expect daytime high temperatures between 6C-10C (43F-50F).

No major cold spells or snow is in our future at this time.

The October temperature roller coaster ride continues

A tradition of mine that goes back years is to take a photo with the date of the first frost each year. Over the years, it has been as early as September and most recently as late as mid-November. This year was right around the average here on Ile Perrot, last Thursday, October 17, when the temperatures dipped to 0C (32F) at my home. More frost is expected by next Monday, but the growing season has officially come to end for our region for 2024. 

At times this month the weather has resembled that of an actual October in Montreal. Other days, we have had summerlike temperatures, that would include Wednesday, when highs sat just below the 1979 record of 25C (77F). I recorded 24.7C (76F) at my home on Ile Perrot, with the warmest air in the country located across eastern Ontario and southwestern Quebec along the St. Lawrence Valley. Gusty southwest winds ahead of a cold front, helped to boost the mercury. It was the fourth day in a row of 20C plus temperatures and the 7th time in October. The normal high should be 12C (54F), with a low of 3C (38F).

Spectacular weather and bursting colours reaching peak, allowed for great foliage viewing this past weekend across southwestern Quebec. Gusty winds up to 60km/h and cooler overnight temperatures are starting to strip the leaves form the trees as we pass peak viewing here in Montreal. 

The warm temperatures followed a week where many locations had thick frost and freezing temperatures, with snow falling across the mountain tops. That brings us to this morning. A potent cold front moved through the region late Wednesday and overnight, with some showers, but mostly a wind shift to the northwest and dropping temperatures. Montreal is currently 7C (45F) and will warm only slightly today to around 10C (50F) with clearing skies. Moderate winds will make it feel quite cold outdoors, especially after our summer warmth of late.

The cold air is with us for the weekend, reinforced by another cold front Saturday. We will likely have more frost again Sunday night. The cold will not last long as the roller coaster ride persists. Another warm front late Tuesday will push highs again to or even above 20C by next Wednesday.

At this time we are looking at a breezy Halloween, with mild temperatures and perhaps a shower or two, but the forecast is a week out and the timing of the weather systems may change. Only slightly cooler air is anticipated for the start of November, as our very mild and dry fall continues.

Speaking of precipitation, only 1-2mm of rain fell on Wednesday afternoon, bringing the monthly total to 17.4mm. Normal rainfall for October in Montreal should be 89.1mm. Montreal had a record-breaking wet summer, but only 70mm of rain has been measured since September 1st.

After the first frost and snow, a significant warming trend forecast for Quebec & Ontario

Many regions outside of Montreal have had their first frost, freezing temperatures and even snow already this season. Tonight should be the first frost in metro Montreal. This week over 25cm of snow fell across many of the highest elevations of the Eastern Townships, Green Mountains and Adirondacks. Meanwhile here in Montreal it was cold, blustery 5 to 6mm of light rain. The month remains dry, with only 15.2mm falling a Trudeau Airport so far. (Photo Sugarbush Resort)

Frost Advisory in effect for southern Quebec

The growing season should come to end across our region Thursday and Friday mornings, as strong high pressure noses into the region. Light winds and clearing skies will allow temperature to fall rapidly after sunset. As a result, lows will drop to the freezing point in the city and below outside the metropolitan area.

While frost and even some snow have occurred across many parts of Quebec and New England this past week, we have yet to see any frost here in Montreal so far. With overnight lows in the 0C to -3C (27F to 32F) range by Thursday morning, that should change tonight for most of us.

The weather definitely felt like fall this week in Montreal. Temperatures were well-below normal through Wednesday, along with clouds and gusty winds. We have a couple of frosty mornings ahead, before strong high pressure ushers in much warmer air across southern Quebec through the upcoming weekend and beyond. (Valley Weather Photo)

Slow moving low pressure has been responsible for our chilly weather of late, with gusty northwest winds, showers and daytime highs under 10C (50F). The aforementioned high pressure that is building into our region will usher in a significant pattern change. Expect sunny days and clear nights through at least next Tuesday. Temperatures will start off chilly but warm to the middle and upper teens by the weekend, and close to 21C (70F) by early next week here in Montreal. The normal high/low for mid-October should be 12C (54F) and 3C (38F).

The showers that we have been experiencing in valley locations this past week, have been falling as now in many locations across the higher elevations of the Beauce, Eastern Townships, Green Mountains and Adirondacks. Elevations above 4000 feet, including Jay Peak, Mount Mansfield and Whiteface Mountain, which have received 25-40cm of fresh snow this week.

October-like weather just in time for Thanksgiving

A starry chilly morning on Monday, October 7, the coldest so far this fall, with morning lows near 2.8C (37F) here on Ile Perrot along with scattered frost. Many locations across Canada witnessed the northern lights this past week, but they were not visible at my home due to light pollution. (Valley Weather Photo)

The weather will finally start behaving like October here in Montreal. After an extremely warm September and early October, cooler weather arrived this week, just in time for the Thanksgiving long weekend. Temperatures have tumbled into the single digits for overnight lows, and have been struggling to reach 10C (50F) this week, along with clouds, gusty winds at times and a few sprinkles. The culprit has been a stubborn upper low moving slowly across southern Quebec from the Great Lakes.

Personally, I find it very cold. I think the warm September is to blame. I only began this week to wear jackets and long-sleeved shirts, prior to that it was all shorts. In recent years we have all become accustomed to the later arrival of fall and eventually winter weather. This has pushed our averages back by almost a month, so when the cooler weather does finally arrive, it can be quite a shock to the system. Even the foliage has been very slow to respond this autumn in Montreal, with plenty of green leaves still around. That may change in the next week or so.

We have still not received any general frost in the Montreal region, although we came close on Monday morning, when the low was 3C (38F). The weather remains rather dry as compared to our summer, with only 6.4mm of rainfall for the month of October at Trudeau Airport to date.

We can expect another chilly, cloudy day Thursday, with a high around 10C (50F). Friday will be the best day of the week and possibly for the next week and beyond, with sunny skies and an unseasonably warm high of 18C (65F). The normal high should be around 13C (55F). Enjoy the weather as we have a pattern change starting with the arrival of a cold front late in the day.

Expect a partly cloudy, chilly weekend, with a few showers around and daytime highs of 10 to 13C (50 to 55F) and overnight lows around 6C (43F). Another stronger cold front Sunday evening will usher in the coldest air this fall, along with some light rain. Monday will be cloudy, breezy and cold, with a daytime high of only 6C (43F) and and overnight low of 3C (38F). The colder air will remain with us next week.

Hurricane Milton makes landfall at Siesta Key, Florida

Hurricane Milton generated over three dozen tornadoes across the state of Florida with widespread damage observed including above at Palm Beach Gardens. (WeatherMatrix)

Powerful hurricane Milton moved inland Wednesday evening around 8:30PM near Siesta Key, Florida, just west of Sarasota. The storm had winds of 195km/h (120mph) at landfall. There were reports of significant damage in many locations, as winds gusted to 172km/h (107mph) at Venice Beach.

Thursday morning, Milton has moved back over the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean, located 120KM east-northeast of Cape Canaveral. Milton will now transition into a strong extratropical storm passing south of Bermuda over the next day or so.

Over 300mm of rain fell in just a few hours north of the track of hurricane Milton, producing widespread flash flooding. (St John's County Sherriff)

Back in Florida, power is out to over three million homes and businesses. Widespread damage has occurred, including a crane collapsing on the Tampa Bay Times Newspaper building in St. Pete, and the destruction of the roof at Tropicana Place, home of the MLB Rays in Tampa.

The big story with Milton will likely be the large tornado outbreak. Tornadoes are very common with landfalling hurricane, but they tend to be weaker and short-lived compared to their midwestern cousins. Such was not the case with Milton on Wednesday. Over 125 tornado warnings were issued across the state, with 38 confirmed tornadoes. Many of them were large, long-lasting wedge tornadoes, producing significant damage, injuries and loss of life. In St Lucie County, 4 deaths were reported.

Hydro One from Ontario has sent additional crews south to help with power restoration in Florida. Over 100 employees were already on the ground in Georgia helping to restore power lost during Hurricane Helene. (Hydro One)

In St Petersburg, over 400mm of rain fell in just a few hours producing flash flooding.

First responders are spreading out across the state Thursday morning to assess damage and search for those who may be injured or trapped in their homes.

Hurricane Milton was the third storm this year to hit Florida after Debby and Helene. While Milton was strong, dry air surging into the southern part of the storm just prior to landfall, helped to alleviate some of the impacts from the storm.

Hurricane Milton landfall expected Wednesday evening

Contractors have been busy since last Friday, rushing to clear away the tons of debris left behind by Hurricane Helene. The same area is now being evacuated for Hurricane Milton. The leftover debris could become lethal in strong winds and pounding surf. (JAX Today)

Powerful category 5 hurricane Milton continues to move towards the Florida Gulf Coast on Wednesday morning, located 405KM southwest of Tampa. Landfall is forecast by midnight Wednesday into early Thursday morning very close to Sarasota, Florida.

Milton currently has winds of 250km/h (155 MPH), a catastrophic category 5 storm, capable of a storm surge of 10-15 feet near and to the right of where the center crosses the coast. While some dry air is located to the north of the storm, possibly weakening Milton just prior to landfall, this will likely have minimal effect on the pounding surf and surge of water into the coast. Milton is the worst storm in over 100 years to threaten this region. 

Isolated tornadoes are also likely as Milton makes landfall and moves across the state, close to Orlando and eventually Daytona Beach along the east coast.

NOAA visible satellite image of Hurricane Milton early Wednesday morning, located 405 km southwest of Tampa Bay, moving northeast at 26km/h, with 250km/h (155MPH) winds. (NOAA)

Helene in late September created a massive storm surge in many of the same locations in west-central Florida, and mounds of debris remain. The debris will become lethal in strong winds and rapidly rising surf.

Evacuations have been rushed to completion, and the state has mobilized the National Guard. Resources have been pouring in from other states, including FEMA and over 43,000 linemen and women prepared to restore power to millions in the track.

Milton will sweep across the state on Thursday, spreading 200-400mm of rain towards the east coast of Florida, as well as tornadoes and 100mph plus winds. Widespread weather warnings are in effect for the entire state except the western panhandle, as well as the Georgia and South Carolina coastlines and the Bahamas.

This is a developing story and updates will be provided today at this link.

Extremely dangerous hurricane Milton heading for west central Florida

Hurricane Milton early Tuesday morning moving northeast away from Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Milton will now take aim at west-central Florida, expected to make landfall late Wednesday near Tampa bay as a strong category three hurricane, with winds of up to 200km/h (125 mph). (NOAA)

Hurricane Milton became a powerhouse on Monday, deepening rapidly into a category 5 storm before weakening slightly late last evening. The storm was in a perfect environment to strengthen and did so at a record pace, dropping 70mb in less than 24 hours down to 897mb. Only hurricane Wilma in 2005 at 882mb was a stronger Gulf storm.

Milton went through what is know as an eyewall replacement last evening, common in very strong hurricanes. The pressure rose to 929mb as of 8am Tuesday, and the winds have backed off to 230km/h (145mph) after being as high as 280km/h (185mph) earlier in the day Monday.

Make no mistake, Milton is still a beast, as as the storm weakens slightly, the wind field is expanding as the storm moves northeast into the central Gulf of Mexico. Milton will be one of the strongest hurricanes on record to hit the west coast of Florida. Widespread hurricane warnings are in effect for the state, with mandatory evacuations well underway. 

Roads were jammed in and around Tampa Bay as residents fled north away from the direct impacts of Milton. Early Tuesday morning, Milton was located 880km southwest of Tampa Bay, moving east, northeast at 19km/h. The hurricane is expected to approach the Florida coast late Wednesday or in the wee hours Thursday morning. At this time, forecasters expect Milton to be a strong Category 3 storm when landfall occurs, very close to Tampa.

Hurricane Milton to impact Florida Gulf Coast

NOAA Satellite image of  a strengthening Hurricane Milton located in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, just west of the Yucatan Peninsula on Monday morning. Milton is forecast to become a powerful category 4 hurricane as the storm heads for Florida's west coast. (NOAA/NWS)

Hurricane Milton developed over the weekend in the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico, and is forecast to strengthen into a major hurricane on Monday. Hurricane watches have been issued for the west coast of Florida, for some of the same regions hit by deadly Helene just over a week ago. Many of theses regions are still cleaning up debris and restoring power and water. Close to 250,000 residents remain without power from Helene across four southeastern states.

Mandatory evacuations have been ordered in many coastal counties along Florida's west coast. These are some of the same areas pounded by storm surge flooding from Hurricane Helene on September 26. (NHC)

Early Monday morning, Hurricane Milton was located 1195km west, southwest of Tampa, moving east, southeast at 13km/h. Winds have increased to 205km/h, (125mph) with rapid intensification expected to continue today. Milton is currently a category 3 hurricane.  Forecasters expect Milton to turn towards the northeast at an increased forward speed, and approach the Florida Gulf Coast by Wednesday as a major category 3 or 4 hurricane.

Power remains out to over 250,000 residents across four southeastern US states. Over 100 Hydro-One employees from Ontario headed south late last week to assist Georgia Power in restoring power to nearly 125,000 clients in their state. Helene claimed over 225 lives and produced widespread damage in the billions across six states. (Hydro-One Photo)

Mandatory evacuations have already been ordered for many coastal counties. As we saw with Hurricane Helene, storm surge flooding can be very intense along the Gulf Coast. Two things you should know about Milton, the waters of the Gulf are very warm this year adding potent fuel to the storm and allowing it to intensify rapidly over the next day or so. The angle of approach to the west coast of Florida is very unusual, and this will only add to the level of the storm surge, espcially for the barrier islands and Tampa Bay. Milton is expected to cross the entire state of Florida from west to east, with the potential for significant damage and numerous impacts.

Hurricane Milton should cross the Florida peninsula on Thursday and move into the open waters of the Atlantic. At present, the storm is forecast to remain well south of New England, with zero impacts for our region.

After a warm September - more seasonable weather is on the way for Montréal

A spectacular Montreal sky late Tuesday, October 1st. While the month may have changed, the weather remained the same, warm and dry. September was a record warm month for the region, with rain falling on only three days. (Valley Weather Photo)

What a spectacular September the city of Montreal experienced weather wise. You can not ask for better, ending with a sunny, warm weekend. Even October 1st was well-above normal, with the high temperature peaking at 23.4C (74F), well-above the normal high of 15C (59F). 

And so it goes in our new reality, where September is no longer fall, but just an extension of summer. In fact, September 2024 was the warmest on record for Montreal, with 26 of the 30 days registering highs of 20C or warmer. This ties the record from 1872 and surpasses the 25 days recorded recently in 2021. The average for the month was 18.4C, the normal is 16C.

After the record-breaking rainfall of August, Montreal managed only 53mm of precipitation in September, falling on just three days. Speaking of August, the Insurance Bureau of Canada now estimates that the flood damage caused by Hurricane Debby will exceed $2.5 billion dollars in insurable losses across Quebec. So far in 2024, insurable losses due to weather related events will reach at least $7 billion dollars in Canada, the most ever recorded in one year. 

Looking ahead, we are finally seeing a pattern change evolving that will introduce colder air across the country. After a rather stagnant patter in eastern Canada, we will see a series of cold fronts beginning Wednesday and continuing into next week. Expect temperatures to fall back closer to normal values here in Montreal, along with precipitation. There is a chance for some gusty winds early next week as well, as the strongest of the cold fronts moves through on Monday. Behind that front, several areas in southern Ontario and Quebec may see frost for the first time this season.

After highs in the 20s, the mercury will fall into the middle and even lower teens next week. Overnight lows will drop into the single digits. Perhaps "true" fall is here, time will tell.

The summer of the flood continues across North America. Damage from natural disasters will runs into the billions across North America, including $7 billion in Canada. The flooding above was from Hurricane Helene last week after the storm dumped feet of rain in and around Asheville, North Carolina. (TWC)

One final note, the death toll from Hurricane Helene has now reached 160, with nearly 600 residents still missing across the flood ravaged southern Appalachians. The flood damage looks almost post-apocalyptic, with estimates running into the hundreds of billions of dollars in losses. Many communities remain isolated, after torrential rain swept through the region last Friday. Infrastructure and communications have been destroyed, with roads and bridges swept away. The hardest hit portions of western North Carolina and eastern Tennessee bore the brunt of the flash flooding, while coastal communities in Florida suffered severe damage from storm surge.

Deadly Helene downgraded to tropical storm

Significant storm surge from Hurricane Helene has caused severe damage all along the Florida Gulf Coast, including Cedar Key, shown above. This is the same region that was hit hard by Hurricane Idalia in August 2023. (The Weather Channel)

Hurricane Helene became a monster on Friday, deepening rapidly to a category 4 hurricane with 250km/h winds and racing into the Big Bend region along Florida's Gulf Coast. The storm moved faster than any I can remember in this region, coming inland at over 25MPH (40KM/H). Helene has weakened to a tropical storm Friday morning over northern Georgia.

Helene was the strongest hurricane on record to make landfall in the Big Bend region. The previous record had been established by the Cedar Keys Hurricane of 1896, that had winds of 200KM/H (125 MPH).

Helene made landfall near Perry, Florida, which is quickly becoming the hurricane capital after direct hits from Debby and Idalia over the last year. Helene delivered a massive storm surge along Florida's west coast from Fort Myers north towards Alligator Point. Cedar Key was inundated once again with several feet of Gulf water. Numerous properties have been destroyed or flooded, some with water up to their rooftops.

The eye of powerful category 4 Hurricane Helene moving onshore at 11pm Thursday evening just south of Perry in Florida's Big Bend region. (NWS)

Helene's winds have taken down thousands upon thousands of trees, with power out across the US southeast to more than 3.5 million residents and businesses. The storm is also producing torrential rains, with flood emergencies across several states, including water-logged North Carolina. The Atlanta metro area has received over 150mm of rain in the last few hours, with major flooding occurring as well as numerous swift water rescues.

Early Friday morning, Helene was downgraded to a tropical storm, located 130km east, northeast of Atlanta, Georgia. Helene was still racing towards the north at 48km/h, the only saving grace with this storm has been her rapid forward speed.

As day breaks over the region, the damage is widespread and extensive. There have been at least 5 fatalities confirmed so far. I have great concern for parts of Appalachia, where Helene will stall, and rain out over the weekend. Significant fresh water life-threatening flooding is expected.

Under normal circumstance, Helene would take aim at our region. This time we are being protected by strong high pressure centred over Quebec, that will keep the storm well south of us. Good news for Ontario, Quebec and New England, but bad news for the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.

Powerful Hurricane Helene takes aim at Florida Panhandle

NOAA Satellite image of strengthening Hurricane Helene at sunrise Thursday morning. Helene is expected to intensify rapidly today, reaching category 4 status with winds of up to 250km/h before landfall near Apalachicola, Florida in the wee hours Friday morning. (NOAA/NHC)

Helene was just a tropical wave 48 hours ago, but in the next 12 or so, the storm will undergo rapid intensification into a Category 4 powerhouse hurricane, as the storm takes aim at the Florida Gulf Coast. Winds may exceed 250km/h at landfall. Early Thursday morning, NOAA Hurricane Hunters flew through the storm observing the structure as Helene continues to grow. What they found were winds of 155km/h and a central pressure down to 960mb, as the storm continues to deepen rapidly.

Helene was moving towards the northeast at 19km/h, with a gradual turn towards the north forecast today and an increase in forward speed. The fast-moving hurricane is expected to approach the Big Bend area of the coast late Thursday evening or in the wee hours Friday morning. Forecasters at the National Hurricane Centre are expected a storm surge of over 6 metres (20 feet) to the east of where the eye crosses the coast. Combined with fierce winds and battering waves, a surge of that level is not survivable.

Evacuations were ordered Wednesday and preparations should be rushed to completion. All along Florida's Gulf Coast from Tampa to the Mississippi border, weather conditions will quickly deteriorate today.

The official NHC forecast for Helene has the storm hitting the Florida Gulf Coast Thursday and moving inland quickly. Once over the southern Appalachians, the storm will meander for days producing heavy torrential rain and flash flooding. Helene is expected to dissipate well south of  Quebec and Ontario. (NHC)

Surge flooding of 4 to 8 feet is forecast in the Tampa Bay region. Typically tropical systems weaken quickly after landfall, but the forward speed of Helene will allow winds to remain strong with this storm well-inland into southern Georgia and the Appalachians. Widespread wind damage and power outages are expected all across the US southeastern region. Significant flash flooding will also be a big problem across the water logged regions of the Carolinas, Kentucky and Tennessee. Helene will produce 200-300mm of rain.

Rain falling across southern Quebec Thursday morning is in response to a frontal boundary crossing the region. High pressure will build into eastern Canada and New England over the weekend, keeping Helene well to our south. The hurricane is expected to dissipate into a remnant low over Kentucky after about 72 hours and drift into the middle Atlantic region. Some high clouds and perhaps a few showers are possible by the middle of next week for Montreal, but nothing more is expected form Helene.

Summer comes to an end with spectacular weather

The waning Harvest Moon visible over Montreal as the sun rises on another sunny, warm September day. Fall arrives this Sunday at 8:44AM, but temperatures are expected to remain above normal. (Valley Weather)

There are signs the Rex Block will finally be breaking down this weekend and into next week, but what an incredible stretch of late summer weather it has been. Fall officially arrives at 8:44 AM this Sunday morning, however, the weather continues to be very summer like. 

Since September 12, we have had nothing but sunshine in southern Quebec, with dozens of record high temperatures. Highs have been running in the upper 20s, with even a 30 or two around. On September 16, Montreal managed a surprise record high of 31C (88F), surpassing the 1939 benchmark of 30.6C (87F). On many other days, our highs have settled into the 25C to 28C (77F-83F) range, well-above the normal value of 18C (65F). Our overnight lows have been even more impressive, in the 16 to 18C (60-65F) range, the normal low for mid to late September should be around 8C (48F). While cooler air in on the horizon, temperatures will likely still be at or above normal.

This has been a dry month in Montreal, especially when you compare it to our record-breaking wet summer. To date, 25.4mm (1 inch) of rain has been recorded at Trudeau Airport, falling on only 2 days, September 1st and 7th. No precipitation has occurred since, despite the elevated humidity we have been seeing over the last two weeks.

The pattern is showing signs of breaking down this weekend, as a backdoor cold front arrives from the northeast. A wind shift should bring in slightly cooler air, with just a chance for a sprinkle this weekend. Temperatures will still be mild, in the 23 to 25C range. Early next week, low pressure developing over the Great Lakes, will begin to influence our weather, with clouds and showers by midweek, along with cooler temperatures. Daytime highs will drop into the middle teens by Wednesday.

While we have been enjoying spectacular weather, the same Rex Block has been delivering heavy rain and high surf to portions of the Middle Atlantic States including Kure Beach, North Carolina, shown above. (AccuWeather)

While we have been enjoying this spectacular weather, parts of the middle Atlantic region have had strong northeast winds and coastal flooding. A non-tropical area of low pressure produced torrential rainfall across North Carolina, with some locations reporting in excess of 400mm of rain in less than 24 hours. Significant flash flooding was observed.

The persistent northeast flow caused by the Rex Block will continue to produce heavy surf and showers across the region through Friday. Widespread coastal flood watches and warnings are in effect from New Jersey to North Carolina.

Rex Block provides perfect stretch of late summer weather to Montreal

There are a few signs around of the changing seasons, such as fields of pumpkins and a few trees showing their colours. The weather however has a different agenda, feeling more like late July and August, with highs in Montreal in the upper 20s, and humidex readings in the 30s.

The weather does not feel like September at all these days, thanks to a Rex Block feature established over eastern North America. So what is a Rex Block? The phenomenon was first discovered by Meteorologist Daniel F. Rex in the early 1950s. The Rex Block occurs when strong high pressure is located poleward, just to the north of low pressure, blocking its movement. The high pressure in our current example is nearly stationary at all levels in the atmosphere, basically cut off from the typical westerly flow that moves weather systems along in our latitudes.

What this means for practical weather is that whatever weather you have currently, you will continue to enjoy until the ridge breaks down or is finally nudged east. That can sometimes take days to weeks to occur. For Montreal, we have not had any precipitation since September 7. Over the last few days, the high pressure has been directly overhead, allowing for clear skies, light winds and well-above normal temperatures. Daytime highs have been more typical of late July and August. The mercury soared into the upper 20s over the weekend, along with elevated humidity making it feel almost uncomfortable at times. Overnight lows have been more typical of what our daytime highs should be for mid-September around 16C to 18C (60 to 65F).

A Pivotal Weather image showing Monday mornings weather map displaying the Rex Block in action. A Rex Block occurs when high pressure in all levels of the atmosphere, is located directly north of low pressure preventing it and other weather systems from moving, creating a roadblock in the atmosphere. The pattern can last from days to weeks. 

Expect at least another few days of this weather, with widespread sunshine through Wednesday, warm and definitely humid at times. Highs will generally be close to 30C (85F) for most of us in southern Quebec and eastern Ontario.

While we have been enjoying the nice weather, the Middle Atlantic and southeastern United States are under the low pressure portion of the Rex Block, with persistent showers, thunderstorms and an easterly onshore winds that has resulted in some coastal flooding. Early Monday morning, the National Hurricane Center was monitoring low pressure located 140 km south of Cape Fear, North Carolina. This system will slowly meaner northwest at 6km/h over the next 24 hours, producing heavy rain and rough seas. The Rex Block will result in the storm making very little northward progress for the time-being.

By Thursday, high clouds may stream north from this system into southern Quebec, but I don't expect any precipitation at this time. The only threat for rainfall at this time may come from a backdoor cold front wrapping around the northern edge of the aforementioned high pressure.

Rex Block or not, the good news is that if you like warm temperatures, it appears daytime highs will remain well-above normal through at least the end of September.

Long stretch of near-perfect late summer weather forecast for Montreal

An early taste of fall colours on Ile Perrot this past weekend. However, don't be fooled by the cold weather as summer is set to make a return, with abundant sunshine and above normal temperatures forecast into the upcoming weekend.

After the wettest meteorological summer on record for the city and an early taste of fall, we are in store for an extended period of sunny, warm weather.

Strong high pressure anchored over southern Ontario, will remain in place well into the weekend. This will provide the Montreal region with clear, cool nights and sunny, seasonable warm days. As the week moves along and into the upcoming weekend, a southwest flow will develop, allowing for temperatures to rise above normal. High temperatures will be close to normal values of 20C (68F) and 10C (50F) for Wednesday, but rise into the middle 20s beyond and perhaps upper 20s by the weekend. No precipitation is in sight.

Strong high pressure over southern Ontario will keep the remains of hurricane Francine well to our south, saving the region from heavy rainfall. (NHC)

Tropical Storm Francine

On Tuesday afternoon, tropical storm soon to be hurricane Francine was located 610km southwest of Morgan City, Louisiana, heading northeast at 14km/h. Francine has 100km/h winds and was expected to strengthen into a hurricane late Tuesday. The storm is forecast to make landfall along the central Louisiana coast on Wednesday afternoon. Hurricane warnings are in place, with conditions expected to deteriorate quickly along the food-prone Gulf Coast. A storm surge of up to 3 metres is possible, along with 100-300mm of rain.

Once inland, Francine is expected to weaken while moving north into the Mississippi Valley. The good news for Montreal and southwestern Quebec, is that the aforementioned high pressure will deflect Francine well south of our area, where the storm will weaken and fill over time.

Wet Summer

As mentioned, Montreal just experienced the wettest summer on record. From June 1st to August 31st, 492.9mm (19.4 inches) of rain fell on the city, smashing the long-standing record of 431.1mm set in 1893. Despite the persistent clouds, rain, thunderstorms and very humid conditions, we still managed 18 days with the temperature at 30C (86F) or higher at Trudeau Airport from June to August.

Montreal did manage some very fall-like weather over the weekend. On Saturday, a strong cold front produced up to 20mm of rainfall across the region, accompanied by gusty winds and dropping temperatures. The overnight low on Sunday morning was a chilly 7.1C (45F), only rising to 13.4C (55F) on Sunday. The was the coldest high temperature for the date, surpassing the previous low maximum of 13.9C (56F) set in 1938.  Despite the early taste of fall weather, the long range forecast is calling for above normal temperatures for tour region into October.

Wettest August on record for the Montreal region

The longer nights and cooler mornings  have allowed some trees to begin showing their colours across Southern Quebec. Despite the forecast for a cool Labour Day weekend in Montreal, it looks like we are in for a warm and wet fall, just as the entire year has been. (Valley Weather Photo)

Powered by the remains of tropical storm Debby, Montreal has added another dubious weather record to the books, the wettest August dating back to 1871. With just a few days left in August and meteorological summer, Trudeau Airport sits at 229.3mm of precipitation, just over 10 inches of rainfall for the month. The previous benchmark was 224.8mm set in 2011. We will add to the record on Saturday, with another 10-20mm of rain forecast before we say goodbye to one soggy summer.

The total rainfall for the three summer months is also a record for the city, currently at 450mm. That of course is at the airport in Dorval, as many already know, amounts are much higher in other parts of the city. For example, I have measured 484.2mm here on Ile Perrot. 

Many are still paying the price for the abundant rainfall as municipalities struggle to pick up the tons of debris leftover form the flooding caused by both Beryl and Debby. The wait for insurance adjusters and contractors has been long, and many homeowners are facing the likelihood of not being covered or being under insured for the damage. Many are dealing with the health impacts caused by moldy basements, not to mention the overall stress of the event. 

With summer coming to an end, we are getting a brief glimpse of what fall may look like. For the short-term, Montreal will be cool and dry for a day or two. High pressure will give us a sunny and cool Thursday at 21C (70F), followed by slightly warmer temperatures Friday, 25C (77F). Rain arrives on Saturday, with showers and thunderstorms persisting into Sunday. Skies will clear out for holiday Monday, with a chilly high near 18C (65F).

Beyond that we can expect a period of dry weather and warming temperatures next week. The general outlook from both Environment Canada and the National Weather Service for our region, is for above normal temperatures and precipitation during the fall months of September through November.

An early taste of fall weather for southern Quebec

Another rainbow in the skies over Montreal as our wet summer continues. Skies will begin to slowly clear on Thursday, with a return to more summer-like temperatures this weekend as highs rise into the middle and upper 20s. (Valley Weather Photo)

Our super wet summer persists across southern Quebec, with another 25-50mm of rain falling on the region since Monday. The culprit this time, a potent upper level low that is slowly drifting across the region with showers, thunderstorms and unseasonably cold temperatures. It has provided Montreal with a very early taste of fall weather. I have even seen a hint of colour in some of the trees as the days begin to shorten.

The high temperature failed to reach 21C (70F) in Montreal on Tuesday afternoon, the first time since June 10. We are sitting at a very cool and wet 14C (56F) as I write this blog Wednesday morning, and temperatures will not budge too much today. Adding to the fall-like feel will be rounds of rain, some of it rather heavy at times across southwestern Quebec and eastern Ontario. Another 15-25mm of rain is quite possible today, with highs struggling to reach 16C (60F), well-below the normal high of 24C (76F).

Since Monday, 47mm of rain has fallen at my home on Ile Perrot, with my monthly total now sitting at 233.8mm and counting. Slightly less at Trudeau, with 196mm, owing to the fact the airport received less rain during tropical storm Debby on August 9. The all-time record for the entire month of August is 224.8mm set in 2011. While many parts of the city, including here on Ile Perrot have already surpassed that amount, we will have to see if it is officially broken at the airport.

Expect one more cold and wet day Wednesday, before the upper level low slides to the east, and high pressure begins to move in. That will allow for pleasant weather beginning Thursday afternoon and lasting though the weekend. We can also expect temperatures to rise into the middle and eventually upper 20s by Sunday, as summer weather returns. The next chance for showers and thunderstorms won't be until Monday. 

More heavy rain expected across southern Quebec

Laval, Québec on Friday August 9. More rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible on Sunday, with 30-40mm falling on already saturated ground across the Montreal region. The summer of 2024 is quickly becoming know as the summer of the flood. Major flash flooding has now occurred on two separate occasions in both Toronto and Montreal as well as across Vermont and New York. (Association des Pompiers de Laval)

Special Weather Statement in effect for southern Quebec and eastern Ontario for 30-40mm of rain from Sunday afternoon into Monday morning. Some flooding and water accumulation is possible, especially in low-lying areas.

A common scene this summer in central Canada. This time is was Mississauga, Ontario on Saturday. (TWN)

Low pressure and a frontal boundary will slowly move across southern Quebec over the next 36 hours, generating showers and thunderstorms. Some of the showers will be slow moving, and capable of producing heavy rain. This will not be like tropical storm Debby on August 9. The storms will be scattered in nature and the hope is that the rain will spread out and not concentrated. However the ground is saturated in southern Quebec and waterways are full, so any additional rainfall is not welcome at this time.

Showers will be possible through Wednesday of the upcoming week, along with much cooler temperatures by Tuesday.

The summer of 2024 is quickly becoming known as the summer of the flood across eastern Canada. For the second time this summer, as with Montreal, the GTA experienced major flooding on Saturday. The culprit is an upper level low slowly moving across the Great Lakes and heading for southern Quebec. On Saturday, the low developed rounds of thunderstorms that moved off Lake Ontario and into the Toronto region dumping 128.3mm of rain at Pearson Airport. 

Toronto has now had its wettest summer on record, with 475.8mm falling, smashing the 2008 record of 396mm. Montreal is not far behind, with 415.8mm since June 1st at Trudeau Airport. There has been even more precipitation at other locations across southern Quebec. The trend will persist with more rounds of storms expected today and showers through the middle portion of the week.

The storms also generated a tornado with significant damage near the communities of Drumbo and Ayr in southwestern Ontario. The damage will investigated today by the Northern Tornadoes Project from Western University to determine the rating.

More rain and thunderstorms for flood weary Montreal

After all the flooding in Montreal last weekend, it was nice to see the sun this week. Unfortunately the airmass is quite warm and humid, and has produced isolated thunderstorms. There has also been some smoke and haze from western wildfires.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect for metro Montreal.

We have a risk of isolated strong thunderstorms Thursday afternoon, with heavy rain, hail and gusty winds possible through sunset.

The clean up continues in Montreal after the historic rainstorm last week associated with tropical storm Debby. Highway 13 finally reopened Thursday morning, after being closed to flooding and a damaged pumping station since last Friday night.

Environment Canada map displaying the accumulated rainfall across our region from tropical storm Debby. The heaviest rainfall, between 150-200mm (6-8 inches), locally more, was centered in the St. Lawrence Valley, and particularly the West Island, Ile Perrot and Vaudreuil.

Montreal has been under a warm and humid airmass this week, with frequent afternoon and evening thunderstorms across the southern portion of the province. The good news is that the storms have been widely scattered and have occurred in areas that received slightly less rainfall from Debby.

Montreal will remain in an unsettled weather pattern through at least next Monday. Primarily we will be affected by the departing upper level low to the east of our region, with scattered storms moving from north to south. As with any thunderstorms, heavy rain is possible, but it will not impact the entire island as Debby did. Temperatures will be quite warm Thursday through Saturday, rising to near 30C (86F) as it did Wednesday afternoon.

Over the weekend, we have another Great Lakes low pressure and associated frontal boundary expected to slide across southern Quebec. Showers and scattered thunderstorms are likely each day, with the possibility of 15-25mm of rain falling by Monday, perhaps more in thunderstorms. The hope is we avoid any additional flooding.

Hurricane Ernesto's forecast track will keep the storm far away from southwestern Quebec. The only Canadian location that will likely be impacted is Newfoundland. (ECCC)

HURRICANE ERNESTO

It is important to note that hurricane Ernesto will not impact the weather in southern Quebec as some were posting on social media Wednesday. The storm will be far out in the open waters of the North Atlantic.

Ernesto strengthened into a hurricane Thursday morning, 915 km southwest of Bermuda with 140km/h winds. The storm was moving north at 22km/h. A hurricane warning is in effect for Bermuda, with the centre expected to pass close to the island nation Saturday as a major hurricane. The storm will produce dangerous surf all along the US coast and into Atlantic Canada. Ernesto may brush Nova Scotia, but most likely will affect southeastern Newfoundland sometime next week. 

Tropical Storm Debby hammers Montreal with historic rainfall

The service roads and ramps off Highway 40 at Cote-Vertu were once again closed this morning due to major flooding. The roads were closed during the evening commute as well, as more heavy rain hit the city. In all between 100-175mm of rain fell in Montreal Friday, an historic amount of rain for one day. (Photo: Oliver Sutton)

A spectacular rainbow has just appeared in the eastern sky here on Ile Perrot after an historic weather day. Tropical Storm Debby dumped two months worth of rain on the region in just a few hours. At my home on Ile Perrot, 175.8mm (6.9 inches) of rain since the pre-dawn hours. This is the most rain I have ever recorded at any location I have lived in in the 48 years I have been observing the weather.

A remarkable 105mm of that total fell between 4pm and 8pm. Normal rainfall for August is just over 94mm. The rainfall today crushed both the daily record of 76.2mm set in 1917 and the monthly record for August set on the 29th back in 1893.

Highway 40 was once again closed Friday evening due to flooding. (Transport Quebec)

The result was as expected, numerous highways and ramps were closed during the morning commute creating gridlock, once again focused around our office at Cote Vertu. Our building flooded again, as it did back in July during Hurricane Beryl. Many drivers were once again stranded as their vehicles became inundated with water. Some of the same roads have been closed by Transport Québec again this evening due to significant water accumulation.

The rain that hit the city late Friday was even heavier, with more highway closures, including the Decarie Expressway.

On top of the heavy rainfall, winds gusted close to 80km/h at Trudeau Airport as the final heavy rain pulled across the region. The result has been widespread power outages to over 120,000 Quebec homes and businesses.

The good news is the rain is now over for Ile Perrot, with the back edge pulling across the city as I write. If the rain has not ended in your location, it will soon. Saturday should be sunny and dry, allowing many to assess the damage and begin the cleanup process. Once again insurance adjusters will be busy.