Weather pattern change expected for southern Quebec

The weather this fall has been nothing short of spectacular in Montreal, with abundant sunshine, little rainfall, and temperatures well-above normal. We are starting to see a significant pattern change developing to end November and start December. While we can expect cooler temperatures and perhaps a few snowflakes, the weather will only be adjusting to seasonal normals for late November in Montreal and nothing too drastic. It still may be a shock to the system after such a warm fall.

Cooler wet weather on the way, with perhaps our first snowflakes in Montreal.

Until now most of this fall as been dry and warm. Temperatures have been running well-above normal values, along with sparse rainfall. The weather is expected to change significantly this week, with colder air and more wintry precipitation expected across a large portion of the country.

Before then, we can expect another fairly mild start to the work week, with high temperatures reaching the double digits yet again in Montreal, up to 10C (50F) Monday and Tuesday. A few very light showers Monday, will give way to high pressure and sunshine for both Tuesday and Wednesday.

At the same time, strengthening low pressure will bring a widespread snowfall along with gusty winds and much colder temperatures to the southern Prairie into northwest Ontario. By Thursday a developing upper level low will slip south across the Great Lakes, spinning up low pressure at the surface over southern New England. That storm system will result in a wet, cold and at times white period of weather for our region.

The combination of both systems will introduce slightly cooler air into southern Quebec, along with much needed rainfall, up to 25mm from Thursday into Saturday for Montreal. To date in November, we have only received 30mm of rain at Trudeau Airport. 

Most of our region has been dangerously dry this fall, stretching south into upstate New York and New England. There have been several brush fires, which is very unusual for November in our region. Normal precipitation for the month of November should be 84.2mm, that includes 16.3cm of snow. In October, Montreal only received 25mm of rain, the normal should be close to 103mm.

With cloud cover and a cold rain developing Thursday intoSaturday, temperatures will drop into the lower single digits for highs in Montreal and perhaps close to the freezing point for overnight lows. There may even be some upper elevation snowfall across the Laurentians and Eastern Townships with the system next weekend. Some computer models are hinting at 10-15cm of fresh snow for the ski regions south of Montreal. Time will tell.

SNOW?

Looking ahead, colder weather will prevail to end the month and to start December, with a couple of opportunities for our fist snowflakes of the season here in Montreal. We will get into the details in another post, but it looks like more seasonable weather is on the way. Get those winter tires on!