Stormy weather pattern to develop for southern Quebec

For the second consecutive day, Montreal commuters had to deal with icy roads just in time for the morning rush. Like Wednesday morning, roads iced up quickly, with several accidents reported. The culprit was a cold front that produced flurries that melted early than froze quickly as temperatures plummeted well-below freezing.

With the exception of one snowstorm, the winter of 2023-24 to date has been rather tame. As I write this Thursday morning, a cold front has just moved across the St. Lawrence Valley, leaving in its wake icy roads and plummeting temperatures. The temperatures has fallen from 1C (34F) at 4AM to a current reading of -6C (21F) here on Ile Perrot. Ottawa has already dropped to -10C (14F), with a wind chill of -19C (-2F). This is definitely the coldest air so far this winter. A few flurries accompanied the front, that have now frozen, making for an icy commute for the second consecutive day. Drivers are reminded to adjust their speed, in what has been a rather easy driving winter so far. That is about to change.

The colder air will stick around into the weekend here in Montreal, with overnight lows down to -12C (10F) and daytime highs around -4C (25F). As far as practical weather is concerned, partly cloudy skies will prevail, with decent sunny breaks and a few flurries through Saturday. Winds will be gusty today, up to 50km/h, with cold wind chill readings in the minus teens.

Parade of Storms

There are indications that temperatures will remain near or just slightly above normal across southern Quebec the next few weeks, allowing any storms that do occur to be more of a wintry type and not the abundant rainfall that has been occurring. The first in a series of storms will develop over the southern US Friday and move northeast along the Atlantic coast while deepening. At this time the center is expected to pass well south of Montreal, with just a glancing blow expected. Light snow will develop on Saturday night and persist into Sunday, with perhaps up to 5cm falling in the city. More is expected across the Eastern Townships as well as New York and New England. Winds will be gusty from the northeast on Sunday, making it feel rather cold.

High pressure will briefly make an appearance on Monday into early Tuesday before another storm system moves in from the southwest. This storm will need some serious attention, as all models are predicting it to deepen rapidly into a major low pressure area, while moving from the Mississippi Valley towards the Great Lakes by Wednesday. At this time there are many details to work out, but we are looking at the potential for heavy precipitation, likely snow and ice, along with very strong winds.

As the energy that will become this storm moves onto the Pacific Coast late this weekend, models will begin to handle the data more accurately, and we may get a better idea on a final forecast track. This active weather is expected to persist well into the middle of the month and perhaps beyond.