Powerful Hurricane Helene takes aim at Florida Panhandle

NOAA Satellite image of strengthening Hurricane Helene at sunrise Thursday morning. Helene is expected to intensify rapidly today, reaching category 4 status with winds of up to 250km/h before landfall near Apalachicola, Florida in the wee hours Friday morning. (NOAA/NHC)

Helene was just a tropical wave 48 hours ago, but in the next 12 or so, the storm will undergo rapid intensification into a Category 4 powerhouse hurricane, as the storm takes aim at the Florida Gulf Coast. Winds may exceed 250km/h at landfall. Early Thursday morning, NOAA Hurricane Hunters flew through the storm observing the structure as Helene continues to grow. What they found were winds of 155km/h and a central pressure down to 960mb, as the storm continues to deepen rapidly.

Helene was moving towards the northeast at 19km/h, with a gradual turn towards the north forecast today and an increase in forward speed. The fast-moving hurricane is expected to approach the Big Bend area of the coast late Thursday evening or in the wee hours Friday morning. Forecasters at the National Hurricane Centre are expected a storm surge of over 6 metres (20 feet) to the east of where the eye crosses the coast. Combined with fierce winds and battering waves, a surge of that level is not survivable.

Evacuations were ordered Wednesday and preparations should be rushed to completion. All along Florida's Gulf Coast from Tampa to the Mississippi border, weather conditions will quickly deteriorate today.

The official NHC forecast for Helene has the storm hitting the Florida Gulf Coast Thursday and moving inland quickly. Once over the southern Appalachians, the storm will meander for days producing heavy torrential rain and flash flooding. Helene is expected to dissipate well south of  Quebec and Ontario. (NHC)

Surge flooding of 4 to 8 feet is forecast in the Tampa Bay region. Typically tropical systems weaken quickly after landfall, but the forward speed of Helene will allow winds to remain strong with this storm well-inland into southern Georgia and the Appalachians. Widespread wind damage and power outages are expected all across the US southeastern region. Significant flash flooding will also be a big problem across the water logged regions of the Carolinas, Kentucky and Tennessee. Helene will produce 200-300mm of rain.

Rain falling across southern Quebec Thursday morning is in response to a frontal boundary crossing the region. High pressure will build into eastern Canada and New England over the weekend, keeping Helene well to our south. The hurricane is expected to dissipate into a remnant low over Kentucky after about 72 hours and drift into the middle Atlantic region. Some high clouds and perhaps a few showers are possible by the middle of next week for Montreal, but nothing more is expected form Helene.