Another extended period of dry weather for southern Quebec

A rare sight this September, as clouds and showers occurred in Montréal on two days this past week. Unfortunately amounts were light, with less than 10mm of rain falling at most locations. This is not nearly enough to bust the drought conditions prevailing across a wide swath of our region. (Valley Weather Photo)

Despite the rainfall this week, conditions remain exceptionally dry across southern Quebec. On Thursday, low pressure travelled south of our region, keeping the heaviest rainfall and thunderstorms across New York and parts of Ontario.

At Trudeau Airport a meager 3.9mm of rain fell Thursday, barely enough to wet the soil. That brings this weeks total to 9mm, again not nearly enough to break the drought conditions. The monthly total sits at only 28.4mm, well-below the long-term average of 89.2mm for September.

The dry conditions have resulted in a n early apple season across the region. The fruit is ready to be picked and is showing signs of stress from lack of moisture. The apples are starting to fall from the trees. Water levels as mentioned in previous posts, remain dangerously low. Be vigilant if boating on the St. Lawrence or Ottawa Rivers and tributaries.

After a few isolated showers Friday, the balance of the month into early October looks warm and dry. Expect daytime highs in the 20s, with overnight lows in the teens. A dry cold front Tuesday will result in cooler temperatures and perhaps some frost by the middle portion of next week. As far as precipitation is concerned, no rain is forecast until perhaps the second week of October.

Canadian Hurricane Centre forecast track of Hurricane Humberto, which should remain off the coast in the open waters of the Atlantic, but will bear watching for any impacts to Atlantic Canada. Meanwhile a tropical system may develop between Humberto and the US east coast. If it forms it would be named Imelda, and may produce heavy rain and high surf for the US coast. (CHC)

Strong high pressure will set up over Quebec deflecting any storms well to our south. This includes any tropical systems. The Atlantic has become active again, with Hurricane Humberto located 750km northeast of the Leeward Islands early Friday morning. Humberto is forecast to become a major hurricane this weekend, while remaining over the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean. 

Of more immediate concern is an area of low pressure south of the Bahamas that is forecast to become a tropical system this weekend. This storm is forecast to strengthen and pose a threat to the US southeast coast from Georgia to North Carolina early next week. More details this weekend as the storm further develops.