Weather pattern shift continues across southern Quebec

Much needed rainfall this week, along with cooler temperatures has made the outdoors it feel and look more like late October. The fall colours are popping in the Montreal region, with most other areas past peak. Gusty winds this week have removed many leaves form the trees, but some, like this maple on Ile Perrot, remain spectacular. (Valley Weather Photo)

More rain fell in Montreal on Monday evening than in the entire month of September and in October to date. Over 35mm fell in Montreal, alleviating the fire risk and bringing much need moisture to area waterways.

The pattern change that accompanied the rain will continue, with near or slightly cooler than normal temperatures persisting into next week. An upper level low spinning over the Great Lakes, will slowly drift into southern Quebec and eventually northeast of our region by the weekend. Expect the weather to be like, well, October for the next few days. Stubborn clouds, along with gusty west winds, will keep temperatures around 10C (50F) into Saturday. A few isolated showers are possible, especially during the afternoon hours.

Locations closer to the Great Lakes and St. Lawrence Valley have the higher risk of seeing those showers. Overnight lows will drop into the single digits. Cold temperatures are expected in the Eastern Townships and higher elevations of upstate New York and Vermont, where a few snowflakes are possible on Friday evening. At this time, there is no snow in the forecast for Montreal.

High pressure will try to clear out Montreal by Saturday afternoon and Sunday, but clouds and precipitation are expected to return early next week. Temperatures will remain on the cool side of normal through the forecast period.

National Hurricane Center forecast track of Tropical storm Melissa. The storm is expected to strengthen into a major hurricane this weekend, threatening Jamaica. (NOAA/NHC)

Tropical Storm Melissa

While this year's hurricane season has been active, the majority of the storms have remained out over the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean. Melissa may become a serious problem as early as this weekend. The tropical storm is located early Thursday morning 345 kilometres southeast of Kingston, Jamaica. The storm is meandering around the Caribbean Sea, drifting northwest at 7km/h. Wind shear is keeping the storm rather disorganized and in check, but that is expected to change.

Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center expect Melissa to become a major hurricane this weekend, with potential catastrophic impacts for Jamaica, Haiti and parts of Cuba. Steering currents are very weak at this time, as a result the forecast is subject to change. At this time, dangerous flooding and mudslides are possible over Haiti, Jamaica and the Dominican Republic. Rainfall amounts may exceed 250mm through Friday.

Winds, waves are surge are forecast to increase through Saturday along the southern coasts of all three countries as well as Cuba and the Cayman Islands. A hurricane watch in in effect for the region.