A Nor'Easter before the first Atlantic Hurricane

A spectacular September sky as departing clouds play with the rising sun over Ile Perrot. The lowering angle of the fall sun allows for some beautiful sunrises and sunsets. (Valley Weather Photo)

Monday is the last official day of summer for 2026. I am still in shock the season is coming to an end, and stubbornly wearing shorts while waking my new pup on 6C mornings. I got to be me. While I absolutely enjoy all four seasons, summer is by far my number one. With that being said, fall arrives, like it or not, at 8:04 pm on Tuesday.

With that we are seeing much cooler nights in Montreal as daylight diminishes, along with an increase in morning dew, which will eventually become frost as we cool even more. The good news is that the weather looks spectacular in Montreal, with strong high pressure slowly drifting over southern Quebec for the entire week ahead.

As far as sensible weather is concerned, expect nothing but sunny, seasonable days and clear, crisp and cool nights. There is even a risk of frost across large portions of the upper Ottawa Valley as well as regions well north of Montreal. Frost advisories have been issued for those locations. Daytime highs will range from 16C (60F) up to 20C (68F) by Friday. Morning lows will be on the chilly side, ranging from 2C (36F) off the island of Montreal, increasing to 5C to 7C (40-45F) across metropolitan regions. 

Weekend Nor'Easter

As high pressure continues to suppress any significant weather well to our south this week, strong low pressure is forecast to develop along the Atlantic coast and move north towards southern New England by Friday night. This will be the first Nor'Easter of the young fall season, oddly occurring before the first hurricane in the Atlantic basin. It is a record-setting year, as our strengthening El Nino continues to put a cap on tropical activity in the Atlantic Ocean. We are still awaiting our first hurricane.

This year will be the latest on record for a hurricane to form, the previous benchmark was Hurricane Gustav on September 11, 2002. So far this year we have had only 6 tropical storms, including the current system, Fay, located 655km southwest of the Azores and weakening.

As far as Montreal is concerned, it appears the weather from next weekends potential storm should remain well south and east of the St. Lawrence Valley. Perhaps a few clouds, sprinkles and a chilly northeast wind on Saturday, but maybe nothing at all. Closer to the system, heavier rain, up to 50mm, strong winds and even some coastal impacts would be possible, but that will depend on the final strength and eventual track of the storm. Stay tuned, it's that time of year again.