Warmer weather this week for southern Quebec

Nearly 25cm of wet snow fell across southern Alberta this past weekend in what has been a stupid spring to say the least across most of the country. (CTV News)

The weather typically settles down in May after the turbulent and changeable month of April. This May, not so much so far with lots of rain and even snow this past weekend. Montreal had plenty of rain as a very slow moving upper level low moved from the Ottawa Valley to the Gulf of Maine. Another 25mm or so fell over the city this past weekend as our wet, cool spring moves along. We remain below normal in the temperature department with the flowers and trees seeming to be two to three weeks behind schedule. It looks a little better today in southern Quebec with showers tapering off by noon and perhaps a peek or two of sunshine this afternoon. Temperatures will try to go north of 12 or 13C. Cool tonight down into the middle single digits with followed by a mix of clouds and sun for Tuesday and highs near 13C again. It looks like sunshine and mild temperatures of 17C for Wednesday, it what will likely be the best day of the week and of the month so far. At this time the Mother's Day weekend looks like a split with showers on Saturday but sunshine and warm highs near 21C (70F) for Sunday.

The Trans-Canada Highway in southern Alberta on Saturday.

Over the weekend we had an incredible mix of weather reported across western Canada south into the southern US plains. Calgary and the Rockies had over 20cm of wet snow, this after highs in the low 20's Friday. The snow caused a host of problems from power outages and downed trees to numerous accidents across southern Alberta. The same system also produced snow across the Dakotas and thunderstorms across the central plains. While the snow was forecast in Alberta, strong winds and dry weather helped fuel a major brush fire in southern Saskatchewan outside Swift Current that threatened northern parts of that community late last Thursday. Meanwhile south Texas had record breaking triple digit heat over the weekend with highs in the 90's to over 100F in several locations across the western portion of the state. More heat and very strong, dry southwest winds are forecast today with an elevated fire danger over northern portions of Texas into Oklahoma. A major brush fire in Oklahoma on Sunday destroyed several homes and led to 1 fatality.

New month...same weather

The damage continues to mount up and down the Eastern Seaboard from heavy rain, flooding and tornadoes. This street in Baltimore collapsed onto railroad tracks as a result of heavy rain. (Washington Post)

If April showers bring May flowers, where are they? More importantly what do May showers bring? I have measured close to 50mm of rain (2 inches) here on L'Ile Perrot since late Sunday night. A little less at Trudeau Airport with close to 40mm. The rain for the most part has remained within the river banks in southern Quebec, with minimal flooding being reported along the shores of Lake Champlain and the Richelieu River as well as Lake of Two Mountains according to Urgence Quebec. Showers will continue this morning in Montreal. It is good to see April over, not a record cold month by any stretch with only around 1cm of snow for Montreal, but damp and dismal just the same. The average temperature at Dorval was 10.6C around 1 degree below normal. We only managed 1 warm day, actually just a few hours on April 14 when it reached 25C. Rainfall was abundant for the month at 135.8mm. The wet, cool start to spring has left little growing in my neighborhood with no leaves to speak of on any of the trees and very few plants flowering.

The weather will be damp again today with perhaps a few peeks of sunshine this afternoon. If we see the sun it will warm up to 16C. Enjoy it as cool and showery weather returns tonight and lasting well into Monday with temperatures around 12C for highs and 7C for lows. The culprit continues to be a slow moving upper level low over the Great Lakes. This system pumped copious amounts of tropical moisture up the entire east coast on Wednesday with major flooding rains from the Gulf Coast to New England and heavy rain pushing into Ontario and Quebec. The southern half of the system will move offshore today with improving weather for the deep south and middle Atlantic, while the actual low remains slow to traverse our area. I don't expect warmer or dry weather before next Tuesday.

Heavy rain & flooding

Heavy rain is producing major flooding along the Gulf Coasts of Florida and Alabama. Downtown Mobile above from Twitter - Casey Toner - AI.com

The pesky low pressure area that has been causing so much deadly weather across the US is still slowly moving east from the Great Lakes. The system produced another day of strong tornadoes across the southern US stretching on Tuesday north towards the southern Great Lakes. Thunderstorms even fired up in southern Ontario yesterday afternoon with heavy rain and small hail. The death toll since the weekend is well over 30 now in the US. Yesterday a new twist was added to the storm with heavy, flooding rains across Florida and Alabama. Coastal areas of both states received an unbelievable 500mm of rain in less than 24 hours (over 20 inches). To put that into perspective, Montreal is under a heavy rain warning for the next 24 hours with 25-50mm possible, that is only 1-2 inches, and watch how hard it rains tonight. That will give you a good idea of the deluge that must have fallen in Mobile, Alabama and Pensacola, Florida Tuesday and last night. Needless to say widespread flooding has occurred with numerous water rescues and 1 fatality. Roads including Interstate 10 in Florida remain closed as flood waters slowly recede today.

HEAVY RAIN WARNING
More rain is in the forecast for the southern US and is stretching north towards southern Quebec. A deep plume of tropical moisture will overrun the east coast and St. Lawrence Valley tonight with rain and perhaps some thunder into Thursday morning before tapering off. A heavy rain warning is in effect for southern Quebec this afternoon and tonight. Normally warnings are issued for 50mm in less than 24 hours, but I believe in this case the concern for flooding in southern Quebec remains elevated, thus the warnings.
Temperatures will be cool today in Montreal at 8C with northeast winds. Tonight cool and damp with lows of 5C. On Thursday, if we are lucky, a few sunny breaks and a warmer south wind may drive the temperature up into the high teens (19C) in Montreal.

Another day of violent storms across the southern US

The damage was complete from a Sunday tornado in Mayflower, Arkansas. The three day onslaught of severe weather has left 29 dead. (CNN)

A slow moving low pressure area with a nasty trailing cold front along with all the right ingredients of wind, temperature and moisture continues to produce a multi-day severe weather outbreak across the southern US. On Monday it was Mississippi and Alabama that bore the brunt of severe thunderstorms and massive tornadoes. Nearly 3 dozen tornadoes were reported across the region and into northern Georgia and western Tennessee. Hardest hit yesterday were the communities of Louisville and Tupelo, MS where a mid afternoon tornado destroyed dozens of homes and businesses. A dozen fatalities were reported on Monday across the south bringing the death toll up to 29 since Friday night.

A Twitter photo showing the power of a tornado to throw debris into the air. This storm was in Baxter Springs Kansas on Sunday afternoon.

I have a modest understanding of the mechanics and power of these deadly storms and even I have been astonished by the level of destruction. Entire downtown cores have been leveled and cars tossed into piles in fields. The storm that is causing all this severe weather is a slow moving low pressure area centered over the Great Lakes. The system has a trailing cold front slicing through unstable air across the southern US. Combine that with low level moisture blowing in from the Gulf of Mexico and you have all the ingredients necessary for a big outbreak. It will continue today with more tornadoes forecast from Mississippi east to the Atlantic Coast and severe thunderstorms as far north as the Great Lake states.

This system will control the weather in Montreal for the entire week with cool northeast winds and lots of moisture beginning tonight. Montreal and the entire region could see up to 40mm of rain by Friday. It will be cool with highs up to 13C and lows around 7C. Any thunderstorm activity at this time locally will be confined to southwest Ontario particularly London to Windsor.

Strong tornadoes hit US from Arkansas to North Carolina

A photo posted on Twitter by The Weather Channel's Jim Cantore of the 1/2 mile wide Vilonia, Arkansas tornado on the ground after dark last night, a very dangerous situation.

What had been a very slow start to the 2014 tornado season changed rapidly this past weekend. A series of long lasting and wide tornadoes swept across several communities from the southern Plains into the southeast US over the weekend. Until Friday night, the US had yet to report an EF3 tornado or stronger on the Enhanced Fujita scale (0-5), the latest of any reporting year since 1952. Late Friday strong thunderstorms produced an EF3 tornado in Washington County, North Carolina, killing an 11 month old boy, the first fatality of 2014. It was just the beginning of a long, violent weather weekend that will continue into today. Last evening a half mile wide tornado flattened the Little Rock northern suburb of Vilonia, Arkansas. The community of just over 3000 was nearly wiped off the map. The storms last night have killed at least 18 people with the death toll likely to climb as first responders sift through destroyed homes and businesses at first light this morning.

Another Twitter photo taken by a drone flying over Interstate 40 and showing tremendous damage to cars and trailers just outside Mayflower, Arkansas.

Greg Johnson of TornadoHunter.ca, a well respected storm chaser from Saskatchewan, has been on the ground all night in Vilonia helping to rescue survivors and administer first aid. He reports it is a difficult situation with many killed and injured and incredible, potentially EF5 damage. The storms continue this morning and will become intense later in the day across many of the same regions and expanding east. Tornadoes were also reported in Oklahoma, Kansas and Missouri.

Montreal Weather
The same slow moving low pressure area that is helping to fuel those storms in the southern US will affect the weather in southern Quebec this week. It will be sunny in Montreal today, but with that same northeast wind and chill in the air. Look for highs near 12C (54F), still below normal. This will be the best day of the week. Low pressure over the western Great Lakes this morning will move eastward and stall over the eastern lakes by Wednesday. It will send clouds on Tuesday followed by rain for the balance of the week. Temperatures under clouds and persistent precipitation will remain chilly, 11 to 14C for highs and 5 to 7C for lows. A few isolated non-severe thunderstorms may make it into southern Ontario, but any severe weather will remain well to our south this week.

Slow warming this Spring

AccuWeather long range forecast map showing a continuation of cold weather for southern Quebec into the start of May and perhaps beyond.

As expected, we are off to a very slow start this Spring across southern Quebec and most of North America. The ice is gone from most rivers and lakes but the water is still very cold and greatly influencing temperature patterns in eastern Canada. I worked outside yesterday and noticed very little is growing or turning green this year. Lots of cold rain, wind and even some snow on the weather map this morning. Montreal managed 11C (52F) on Wednesday, which is below the normal high of 14C (56F). Combine that with cloud cover in the afternoon, and northwest winds up to 50km/h, and it was not too pleasant outdoors.

We start the day with sunshine but breezy and cold at 1C (33F) here on L'Ile Perrot. It will be a dry day with gusty winds and a high of 11C. Clear skies tonight will allow for cold temperatures once again with lows near 0C (32F) in the city but below off island. More sunshine for Friday but through increasing clouds and perhaps a degree or two warmer at 13C. The weekend at this time looks dreary with clouds, cool temperatures and showers both days as low pressure crosses the region. We may see some clearing late Sunday. Temperatures will be near 10C (50F) for daytime highs with lows around 2C (36F).

SNOW!
We have some snow around this morning along the lower north shore of Quebec. Snowfall warnings are in effect with 15-25cm possible around Sept Isles. The snow is being caused by low pressure passing off the Atlantic Coast near Nova Scotia. The same system is bringing a cold rain to other portions of the Maritimes.

Seasonal week ahead for Montreal

Richelieu River flooding near Sabrevois, Quebec over the weekend. (CBC News)

After 144 days of snow cover here on L'Ile Perrot, the last piece of icy snow melted away from my front lawn this past Saturday. Officially at Trudeau Airport, the end came April 4. I never thought winter would finish this year, but it did and rapidly in the end. Even most of the ice is gone from the rivers and lakes around southern Quebec. I was in Sherbrooke on the weekend and it is amazing just how high and how fast the water on the St Francois River came up last Wednesday. It has since receded but left behind are tons of broken trees lining the river, piles of mud and lots of water logged personal effects sitting in the driveways of residents right along the rivers edge. The clean up will take some time. Currently most rivers are on the way down, even Lake Champlain has stabilized at 100.4 feet, but flooding is still being observed along the New York/Quebec border as well as high water levels in the Richelieu Valley. A flood watch remains in effect for those locations. The forecast does have more rain in it after a rather chilly but pleasant Easter weekend. Expect partial sunshine today with a high near 17C (63F). Clouds thicken early this evening followed by a period of rain overnight and mild lows near 8C (47F). Tuesday will be showery and breezy with the passage of a cold front and a high near 17C. Skies will slowly clear for Wednesday, but it will be colder with high temperatures near 9C (48F).

Tranquil weather allows flood waters to recede

The flood waters shown above in Sherbrooke on Wednesday have now receded with roads reopened and residents returning to begin the clean up. (CBC News)

Much quieter weather is on tap for this Easter weekend across southern Quebec as well as southeast Ontario and New England. A cold front is moving across the St. Lawrence Valley early this morning with clouds and an isolated shower or snowflake occurring. Skies will clear out early with sunshine dominating the weather today and Sunday. Temperatures will be cool today, near 8C, and downright cold tonight with lows in the -5 to -10C range. Sunday will be much warmer with highs up to 16C. The good news is the cooler weather has allowed the flood waters in many southern Quebec communities to recede and for residents to begin the clean up. Hard hit cities like Sherbrooke and Lennoxville had the water drop several feet in just a few hours on Thursday.

One waterway that is still on the rise is Lake Champlain, which flows north into the Richilieu River. It typically floods later in response to all the flood-waters entering it from the smaller tributaries as well as melting snow in the Adirondacks and Green Mountains. Early this morning, Lake Champlain at Rouses Point on the Quebec border is at 100.4 feet. Flooding starts at 100 feet. A flood warning is in effect for Lake Champlain, and this water flows north into southern Quebec. A flood watch remains in effect from Urgence Quebec for the Richilieu River as well as several other southern Quebec rivers. The Chaudiere River near Megantic is still on the rise with moderate flooding reported. Otherwise all other rivers are stabilizing with only minor flooding reported including Lake of Two Mountains here in metro Montreal.
The good news is no major rain is forecast through Monday with the next precipitation forecast for Tuesday.

Widespread flooding across Quebec - Ontario & New England

Flooding in Sherbrooke. (Sherbrooke Record)

NEW RECORD LOW THIS MORNING FOR MONTREAL
The heavy rain and snow are well off to our east this morning as cold air and high pressure settle into southern Quebec. Between 25-50mm of rain has fallen in the region since late Sunday, the bulk of that coming along a cold front Tuesday afternoon. That front dropped temperatures in a hurry with rain changing to wet snow in Montreal by 5pm on Tuesday. Depending where you were in the metro region you had between 1-5cm of snow. This coming on the heels of a 16C high. Even better is where the temperature is this morning, at -7C, a new record low for Montreal for the date. It has eclipsed a long standing record low of -5C set in 1943. Sunshine will dominate today but it will only make it up to 2C. Warmer weather will return starting tomorrow. The front yesterday was impressive with the temperature at my home on L'Ile Perrot hitting 16.1C at 10:57am. As the front progressed across the city temperatures fell rapidly to 11C in a few minutes, down to 7C within the hour and below freezing by 4pm.

My daughter Maggie LB took the photos above and below of the swollen St Francis & Massawippi Rivers spilling onto the Campus at Bishops University in Lennoxville on Tuesday. The Campus remains closed today.

MAJOR FLOODING
The rain and melting snow have caused widespread flooding across the southern half of the province. Numerous rivers including the St Francis, Yamaska, Chateauguay and Chaudiere and even Lake Champlain are over their banks this morning. Homes, business and many roads are flooded. At last count nearly three dozen roads were inundated or closed in Quebec, mostly across the Townships and Beauce. About 600 people were forced to evacuate in Sherbrooke after the Saint Francis & Massawippi Rivers overflowed into certain sectors of the city. Further downstream conditions were the same in Lennoxville where water poured onto the Campus of Bishops University. Classes and exams were cancelled for the day yesterday and the Campus remains closed today to non residents with students asked to remain in place for now. According to the Mayor of Sherbrooke, the worst is yet to come with more snow melting in the mountains and the water continuing to rise. More of the same in northern Vermont and New York where rising waters have closed many roads, forced evacuations and led to water rescues. In Eastern Ontario the Kemptville Creek and Rideau River are spilling over as well flooding farmland, roads along the waters edge as well as the Rideau Glen golf course. Around Laval and the island of Montreal the St Lawrence, Mille Iles and des Prairies are also on the rise and under a flood watch from Urgence Quebec.

The Massawippi River. Photos Maggie Lowson-Balena

Colder temperatures today will slow down the melting and runoff, but it is only temporary as the water has to run its course. The good news is no major rainfall is forecast for the short term.

Near record warmth to snow in 24 hours

Montreal missed a celestial show overnight due to cloud cover as a full lunar eclipse took place. It began at 2am and lasted three hours. This photo was provided from NASA.

Heavy Rainfall Warning 15-25mm for Montreal today.
Flood Watch - all regions of southern Quebec
Rapid temperature drop today from 13C (55F) now down to -8C (17F) overnight in Montreal.

What a wild weather ride we are on here in southern Quebec and Ontario. Toronto reached a high of 21.2C on Monday, over 70F. They are currently -1C with snow. Windsor has had about 7cm of snow overnight after being in the highs 20's. Meanwhile yesterday the warm front created a very sharp range of temperatures across the region. At one point as little as 40km separated temperatures near the freezing point from highs in the middle 20's. When the warm air finally arrived in Cornwall Ontario around 11am Monday, the temperature went from 14C to 25C in one hour. St Anicet near Valleyfield surpassed a long standing record with a high of 28.3 (83F) beating the old record of 26.7C from 1968. In Montreal we managed a high of 24.5 after a low of 2.2C, just amazing.

Not lost in all the temperature talk was about 20mm of rain in Montreal from late Sunday into Monday evening. The rain combined with rapid snow and ice melting continues to produce flooding across the entire region. A flood watch remains in effect for southern Quebec and northern Vermont and New York. More rain is in the forecast today along with increasing winds and dropping temperatures. Expect an area of precipitation to spread across eastern Ontario and into southern Quebec this morning. Rain will gradually mix with and change to snow by late today before ending near midnight. I expect a good 15-25mm of rain in most areas with perhaps 1-3cm of snow depending on what time your community changes over. This will vary from eastern Ontario which will occur early today to the US border by late this evening. Temperatures have reached the high for today and will drop to the freezing point by 7pm in Montreal and down to lows of -8C tonight. Wednesday will see sunshine and cool temperatures with highs around 2C.

Classic winter vs spring battle

Flooding has started in Laval from the Mille Iles River. (CTV Montreal)

You have to love Canada in April with every weather possible in the next 48 hours across portions of Ontario and Quebec. We have a stubborn cold air mass stuck in the St. Lawrence Valley right now. As is typical with a warm front to our south, northeast winds are keeping the temperature in check in Montreal as we sit at 3C (38F) while just to our south, Potsdam New York is 18C (65F) and Malone is 16C (61F). That warm air should surge into Montreal by midday as the low clouds and fog begin to burn off and we reach a high of 21 to 24C (70-75F).

We were treated to our first thunderstorm of the season last night here on L'Ile Perrot. Thunder with heavy rain, about 9mm, fell around 9pm last evening. The rain was not as bad Sunday in metro Montreal as expected but that did not stop areas rivers from rising. Flooding from rapid snow melt continues across the region and especially south of Montreal. Flooding has also reached the metro region with Laval reporting water on the rise from the Mille Iles and des Prairies Rivers. A flood watch remain in effect for the entire area from eastern Ontario across southern Quebec and into New York and Vermont.

WINTER RETURNS
A slow moving cold front will approach Montreal this afternoon with showers and thunderstorms developing by late today and becoming a steady rain on Tuesday. Anywhere from 15-30mm of rain is likely, which will increase the threat for flooding. The warm temperatures today will begin to fall into the low teens by Tuesday morning and then rapidly down towards freezing by late Tuesday. This drop in temperatures will allow precipitation to change from rain to freezing rain, sleet and wet snow across the Ottawa Valley, southern Ontario and eventually southern Quebec. A quick 5-10cm of slushy snow is not out of the question for many locations by the time the snow ends overnight into Wednesday morning. Temperatures will plummet to lows as cold as -9C in many areas of the province. There will be lots of icy spots around late Tuesday so be aware if you have travel plans. It all clears out Wednesday with a cold day but sunny, highs near 1C (33F).

The amount of snowfall will be very dependent on how fast the cold air filters into the region behind the cold front. This will be updated over the next 24 hours so check back often as well as my Twitter feed.

Flooding a major concern across region

Flood Watch posted for entire region.
At this time NO snowstorm for Montreal this week despite the rumours.

The winter of 2013-2014 continues to melt away at an alarming speed. Piles of snow across southern Quebec have disappeared into waterways and drainage systems within the last ten days. Remember it was just two weeks ago we had a 20cm snowstorm. The worst case scenario for major flooding will play out over the next few days. A very slow moving moisture laden storm system will affect southern Quebec from Sunday into early Wednesday morning along with very warm temperatures. Despite the rumours of an impending snowstorm, Montreal will be very mild with most of the precipitation falling in the form of rain. Any snow will be confined to central Quebec with perhaps flurries behind the storm late Tuesday.

The major flooding this week in St Clet west of Montreal, could be just the start of a long couple of weeks for several southern Quebec communities. Heavy rain and melting snow will produce more flooding this week. (Global News Photo)

We start with a sunny Saturday and mild temperatures up to 13C. Clouds increase tonight as a warm front approaches the city. Rain and thunderstorms will develop Sunday and be heavy at times with 15-25mm possible in Montreal. Any freezing rain or wet snow will be well north of the city. As the warm front crosses Montreal by midnight Sunday, temperatures will soar to 21C (70F) on Monday, even warmer if we see some sunny breaks. A slow moving cold front will cross the region late Monday into Tuesday with very heavy rain and scattered thunderstorms. Another 25-35mm of rain is possible on Tuesday. Securite Publique Quebec have flood watches posted for the region as the combination of melting ice and snow and heavy rain will produce flooding. Flooding is being reported across several rivers in southern Quebec including the Chateauguay at Huntingdon. Many other rivers are on the rise, a situation that will be complicated by the forecast for heavy rain. A flood watch is also in effect for northern New York and Vermont.

Late Tuesday much colder air will filter into the area behind the cold front changing any leftover rain to wet snow before ending in the overnight hours Wednesday. Very little accumulation is likely in Montreal at this time, temperatures will be very cold by Wednesday with highs only near 3C (39F).

More rain for southern Quebec

SQ patrol cars block access Wednesday morning to the main road in the Village of St. Clet southwest of  metro Montreal. Flood waters began to recede on Wednesday allowing some residents to begin the clean up. (CBC News)

Another frontal system will cross southwest Quebec this evening with a shot of rain. We are not looking for large amounts of precipitation, but anything at this point is adding to the high water levels on southern Quebec rivers and lakes. Nearly 30mm of rain fell on Tuesday across the southwest portion of the province producing flash flooding. Especially hard hit was the municipality of St Clet not far west of my location. Over 200 homes had flooded basements along with several businesses and the main road through town. Police had to close several roads while firefighters helped evacuate 20 families as well as pump water from homes. The water level fell nearly 4 feet under sunny skies on Wednesday, so the worst may be over for that town. Such is not the case on other rivers including the Riviere Chaudiere which is producing minor flooding in St Georges. Also under a flood watch this morning are the Chateauguay near Huntingdon as well as the L'Acadie and Yamaska. South of the border the Chazy River has produced flooding in northeast New York including the Village of Champlain.

More showers are forecast today along with warm temperatures near 13C. It will remain warm into the weekend with highs near 15C and overnight lows above freezing, helping to melt away much of the remaining snow. However, the snow pack remain deep in the mountains of upstate New York and the Townships, as well ice cover is thick on many rivers and lakes which means we are far from over with the flood threat. Indications are we are in for quite a wet period beginning Sunday and lasting into Tuesday. Several low pressure areas will move along a stalled front and could produce 25-50mm of rain. The track and alignment of the front are still in question, but we will have to monitor this event as flood watches may have to be expanded. Montreal has a normal April rainfall of 67.7mm, through yesterday we are already at 47mm.

Flood potential increasing in southern Quebec

Several families near Carignan south of Montreal, had to be evacuated over the weekend as a result of spring flooding along the L'Acadie and Richelieu Rivers. 
(CBC News)

Urgence Quebec as well as local authorities across the Townships, Beauce and into the Monteregie, are keeping on eye on several rivers including the L'Acadie, Richelieu and Yamaska for flooding. Already over the weekend several families had to be evacuated near Carignan on the South Shore as a result of ice jam flooding on the L'Acadie River. Canadian Coast Guard hovercraft have been breaking ice on both the Yamaska and Chateuguay Rivers for several days. As expected the region has rapidly made the jump from severe cold and snow to spring warmth. The result has been a rapid decrease in snowpack as well as sharp rises on area rivers breaking up thick ice.

To add to this worsening scenario was nearly 20mm of rain on Friday and the arrival of another moisture laden system this evening into Tuesday. Low pressure over Texas will move towards the Great Lakes and down the St. Lawrence Valley on Tuesday. After sunshine and warm highs of close to 13C Monday in Montreal, clouds will thicken rapidly this evening. Rain, heavy at times, is forecast to develop this evening and taper to showers Tuesday morning, lows near 5C and temperatures not much warmer Tuesday. Expect 25-35mm, over one inch of rain for the region. This will increase runoff adding to the concern for flooding. A heavy rain warning has been issued by Environment Canada as well as a flood watch by Urgence Quebec for the southern portion of the province. In Montreal and especially flood prone Laval, area rivers are slowly rising but are still considered normal. Behind the system on Wednesday we can expect blustery conditions with perhaps a snowflake or two and much colder highs of 4C.

April showers help melt the March snow

It does not surprise me at all that we are off to such a slow start to spring in Montreal. After a couple of plus 5C highs to start April, we only managed 3C on Thursday, despite wall to wall sunshine. The culprit is and will continue to be cold winds produced by the ice covered St. Lawrence River. It goes beyond that with ice covering 70% of the Great Lakes after coming down from a near record high of 93%. Portions of Lake Superior are still 90% ice covered. This will greatly affect the spring daytime temperatures, capping them at least as long as the ice and the dense piles of snow remain in and around Ontario and Quebec. It is melting slowly, especially those fortunate enough to have direct sunlight all day.

Numerous ships are laboring through ice as thick as 8 feet on the Great Lakes as the Seaway has opened but to a very slow start. (Photo Boat Nerd Facebook Page)

Friday will be another sunny day with increasing clouds across eastern Ontario and southern Quebec. We have a storm system over the central US that will move towards the Great Lakes. This system will push a warm front across Ontario and Quebec with rain developing this evening and tapering off Saturday. Expect a good 10-20mm of rain across the region. Some areas north and east of Montreal may see some freezing rain or sleet tonight mixed with the rain. Snow is likely across far northwest Quebec and northeast Ontario. Thunderstorms may even pop up in extreme southern Ontario. Temperatures will be mild in Montreal up to 6C today and Saturday with lows near 4C. Look for gusty winds as well, up to 50km/h tonight and 70km/h on Saturday. Sunday looks sunny and mild at this time with a high up to 9C.

ST LAWRENCE SEAWAY
The St. Lawrence/Great Lakes Seaway opened the 2014 shipping season on March 28 with the Algoma Equinox moving through Lock 3 of the Welland Canal. About a dozen or so ships are currently in the system but are being slowed considerably by the thick ice. Yesterday several ships moved along in a convoy through ice as thick as 8 feet on Lake Superior towards the Soo Locks. They were led by two Coast Guard ice breakers, one from the Canada, the Pierre Radison and another form the USCG, the Mackinaw. Up to 5 ice breakers are working in the St. Lawrence with two tugboats trying to free up the St. Lambert locks and port area. Work will continue to free the entire system  from ice which took until April 27 last year and may last well into May this year according to the Canadian Coast Guard. The Seaway stretches from Duluth, Minnesota to Montreal. 

It feels a little like Spring

It actually felt like a Spring morning walking my dog today here on L'Ile Perrot. Sure there are still massive piles of dirty snow around, but it was mild and the snow is starting to melt. After the weekend snowstorm that brought 15cm to Montreal, it has been above freezing during the daylight hours and all of last night. Today will be mild again with temperature up to 7C (45F) in Montreal. We can expect a shower or two and even some sunny breaks. A very weak system is moving across Quebec, but it is moisture starved so I am not expecting any heavy precipitation. High pressure will then move into southern Quebec through Friday with sunshine and warm temperatures, lows -2C (28F) with highs near 7C (45F). By the weekend a warm front will bring in clouds and rain.

If you though March was long, cold and snowy, you were right. We ended the month with 60cm (2 feet) of snow at Trudeau Airport in Montreal, well above the 30 year average of 36.2cm. The average maximum temperature was -1.6C well below the normal of plus 2.5C. It was frigid at night with an average low of -10.7C compared to the normal of -6.5C. Departures from normal of several degrees are significant. At least for the near term, April looks and feels a little kinder and gentler.

Utility crews have a big job ahead of them in the Maritimes after back to back storms brought down power lines and poles leaving thousands in the dark. (CTV News)

Such is not the case everywhere in the country. Winter is holding on in Atlantic Canada with yet another ice and snowstorm over the weekend lasting well into Tuesday. Significant amounts of freezing rain and snow have brought down power lines and poles as well as closed businesses, schools and roads. Students on PEI have not been in class for up to one week now. In several regions of the Maritimes, the plows were pulled off the roads yet again yesterday in heavy snow and blowing snow. On the Magdelen Islands, Hydro Quebec crews arrived yesterday to restore power to 1700 customers on the archipelago, out since the weekend due to heavy freezing rain and strong winds. Meanwhile in northwest Ontario, Sioux Lookout established a new April record on Tuesday with 53cm of snow in 24 hours.

Warming trend starts Monday

Snow clearing crews across southern Quebec were kept busy again on Sunday moving aside 10-20cm of heavy wet snow. Lets hope this was the last time this season we will need the use of plows. (Valley Weather Photo)

The question posed to me on a daily basis now is when will we get spring, when will it get warmer? My answer has been soon, this week, but with a disclaimer. This winter has been long leaving behind plenty of ice on the Great Lakes and St. Lawrence River, and piles of snow all around the region. This will definitely slow the onset of warmer weather as the evaporating ice and snow will keep temperatures cooler and produce more cloud. We only managed 0C on Sunday in Montreal while places with sunshine like Toronto managed a warmer 6C, and Ottawa 3C.

A perfect example of our slow start to spring was the storm that swept across Quebec on Sunday. Montreal received between 10-15cm of wet snow in just a few hours. It was windy as well with gusts at Trudeau Airport close to 70km/h through the middle part of the day. Places just south of the US border reported rainfall. Just the extra degree or two in temperature difference in Montreal meant snow over rain. The good news is we have some milder weather on the way this week once we get rid of the gusty winds and light snow behind this latest storm. That should come to an end overnight with skies clearing out by the middle of Monday. Temperatures will respond most of this week under the warm April sun, reaching daytime highs of plus 6 to 8C (43 to 48F) in Montreal. Overnight lows will drop just below the freezing point between -2 and -4C (25 to 28F). The next chance for precipitation will come late Tuesday or Wednesday in the form of a few snowflakes or showers. More mixed precipitation is likely by next weekend.

Storm Update

Here is the latest information I have gathered on the snow forecast for tonight into Sunday. It appears the bulk of the moisture will remain across the border areas with New York and Vermont. This is typical with an east coast storm. Low pressure will move from the middle Atlantic towards Cape Cod and then into Atlantic Canada once again. Lots of rain and wet snow is forecast across New England and the Maritimes, so flooding may be an issue there. As far as Montreal and southern Quebec are concerned, snow will begin this evening and taper off on Sunday morning. Current indications are for 5-10cm of very wet snow from Montreal south to the border with 15-25cm in the Townships and Beauce. Current warnings include a winter storm warning for the Townships and a winter weather advisory for northern New York and Vermont. Temperatures will be mild today at 4C dropping to -2C tonight and back up to plus 1C on Sunday. Skies will clear by late in the day. Winds will be strong during the storm out of the northeast from 30-60km/h.

WARMER WEATHER
It appears temperatures will go above freezing for most of next week and perhaps beyond as April begins. Highs by the middle of the upcoming week will reach close to 10C. This may be the last appreciable snowfall for Montreal, only time will tell.

More snow possible into Sunday

This mornings snow sure put everyone in a bad mood in Montreal. I took more abuse today for being a weather nerd than I can remember since my high school days. Around 5cm of snow fell rapidly between 5 and 8am snarling morning traffic and adding to the frustrations of a long winter and late spring. The much advertised warm air was tempered by heavy rain most of the day with about 13mm here on L'Ile Perrot. That managed to keep temperatures in check with a high of only 3C which is still below normal. It is still raining tonight as a cold front moves across the St. Lawrence Valley. Temperatures will drop tonight to just below freezing as the front moves south of Montreal and into central New York state. We may see some brief sun on Saturday with a high of 4C. Clouds will increase late in the day with snow developing by evening.

WEEKEND STORM?
The aforementioned front will stall across New York state and become the focus for moisture moving north from the Gulf of Mexico. This sets up a difficult forecast for the weekend. Previous thinking was the front would move far enough south to leave us under high pressure with sunshine and mild air for the weekend. It does not look like that now. The front will remain close enough to draw moisture into southern Quebec. To add to this complicated forecast will be a developing low pressure over North Carolina that will move along the east coast. Both these features will combine to produce a period of wet snow Saturday night into Sunday morning. The question is will it be cold enough for accumulating snow? If it is we may see 10-15cm of snow from Montreal into northern New York and the Townships by Sunday morning. Currently winter storm watches have been hoisted for the Townships and northern NY/Vermont.

White hurricane moves away from Maritimes - warmer soon

NOAA image of the "white hurricane" pounding Atlantic Canada. Montreal remained on the far western edge of the cloud shield with gusty north winds yesterday.

It basically was a white hurricane that pounded Atlantic Canada on Wednesday. Reports of 25-50cm of snow being blown around by winds either side of 100km/h all day and at times as high as 170km/h. Grand Etang on Cape Breton Island had a wind gust to 171km/h (106 mph). This remarkable storm wound up like a spinning top quickly with a central pressure all the way down to 955mb. For a time it was the strongest storm anywhere on the planet. This morning the precipitation has moves into the coastal waters as well as Newfoundland, but winds remain gusty with several reports to 90 and 100km/h. The Trans Canada Highway between New Brunswick and Nova Scotia was closed for most of the last 24 hours but has since opened. Visibility was near zero for most of the period but has started to improve very slowly. Prince Edward Island remains closed with roads blocked by 53cm of snow. The Confederate Bridge is still shut down. Most Island roads are impassable and all flights have been cancelled. Schools and businesses are shut for a second day. Power outages are widespread across the region with utilities working in less than ideal conditions to restore electricity. Newfoundland Power has warned that is could take several days to bring all customers back onto the grid.

All travel including Halifax public transit ground to a halt in the afternoon in dangerous weather with zero visibility. (Radio Canada)

MONTREAL WEATHER
The silver lining from all this is that warmer air is on the horizon for most of eastern Canada. It will not be tropical but high temperatures will nudge above 0C on Friday and into the middle single digits to perhaps 10C (50F) over the weekend form Ontario east into storm weary Atlantic Canada. After the cold this morning, -14C currently, we will have a high of -2C. Montreal will have a period of rain and snow mixed beginning this afternoon and persisting into Friday with perhaps 2-5cm. The weekend at this time looks dry for southern Quebec and mild between 7 and 9C (45-50F). There is another much weaker coastal system expected to move northeast on Sunday that could bring more snow or rain to portions of eastern Quebec, at this time passing to far east to affect Montreal.

Deepening winter storm hitting Atlantic Canada

Sea Dog Pub on Nantucket this morning. It is being battered by hurricane force winds and heavy snow. This weather is moving into Nova Scotia and New Brunswick. (Weather Nation Twitter Photo)

Montreal and most of Quebec remain on the periphery of a powerful ocean storm this morning. Montreal can expect a cold north wind up to 40km/h as well as some high cirrus clouds but nothing more. This classic Nor'Easter has undergone significant strengthening overnight bombing out, that is dropping 24mb of pressure in 24 hours. Actually it has deepened by 15mb in the last three hours alone. It is a classic storm, very strong for this time of year with winds approaching hurricane force along the coast of Massachusetts this morning.

Water vapor image of this classic ocean storm with a central pressure as low as 955mb forecast. (NOAA)

Most of the snow associated with this storm is occurring along the coast and offshore as far as New England is concerned. It is a different story in the Maritimes where blizzard warnings are up for all of Nova Scotia, PEI and portions of southern and eastern New Brunswick. The Gaspe region and Lower North Shore will have heavy snow and strong winds as well. Accumulations across Eastern Canada will range form 25-50cm (10-20 inches). Combined with the snow will be winds in the 100km/h range possibly as high as 150km/h over Cape Breton and then into coastal Newfoundland. Already this morning we are seeing wind reports up to 60-70 mph in coastal New England including Nantucket and Cape Cod. Needless to say travel disruptions, school closing and power outages are being reported across that region as well as into Atlantic Canada. Winds will increase dramatically in Nova Scotia over the next few hours.

Powerful Atlantic storm to develop today

AccuWeather map showing the forecast location of major storm over the Atlantic on Wednesday. Montreal will not be affected by the system but it will drive cold northerly winds down the St. Lawrence Valley through Thursday.

We are still on track to see much warmer air and spring weather arrive in Montreal by the weekend, but before then, there are a few hurdles in our way. The first being this stubborn cold air that has my thermometer showing -13C this morning, another cold morning in this endless streak. We will warm today to -1C, still well below normal, but pleasant in the sunshine.

The second is an advancing trough of low pressure that will move into the region late today and on Wednesday with perhaps a little light snow. At the same time a very strong winter storm will take shape off the Carolina coast today and explode into a monster ocean storm. This system has the potential to be as strong as a category one hurricane with winds in excess of 110km/h, towering waves and surf as well as copious precipitation. The low is forecast to move from the middle Atlantic off the New England Coast and finally just east of Nova Scotia by late Wednesday. Blizzard warnings are in effect for portions of Atlantic Canada with very dangerous travel conditions expected there Wednesday. Snowfall is forecast in the 20-50cm range along with winds from 90 to as high as 150km/h in gusts. The system will remain far enough offshore to only affect coastal areas of New England and perhaps just clip the Gaspe region of Quebec. It will help push gusty northeast winds down the St. Lawrence Valley with clouds and flurries expected and cold air remaining in place through Wednesday with highs of only -4C in Montreal.

Warming trend finally in sight for Montreal

Saturdays snowfall was intense but thankfully short, dumping 10-15cm of snow here on L'Ile Perrot, across Montreal and into the Ottawa Valley. (Valley Weather Photo)

We have an active week of weather ahead for many portions of the country but it will end with a definite warming trend and feeling like spring. Montreal had a rather quick but heavy snowfall on Saturday with close to 15cm of wet snow falling in just a few hours over most of the region including Cornwall and the Ottawa Valley. The snow started around 8am and was over by 2pm in Montreal with sunshine talking over for late in the day. The snow created the usual problems on Quebec roads with two major accidents affecting Highway 20 near Quebec City. The system was followed by very cold air and gusty winds for Sunday and that cold will prevail until Tuesday. Temperatures will be well below normal with lows near -18C and highs no better than -5C.

By late Tuesday a very strong low pressure area will form near the Carolina coast and race northeast towards Atlantic Canada. This will be an intense ocean storm remaining offshore of New England with high winds near hurricane force, heavy surf and snow. It looks like all of the weather associated with this storm will stay away from southern Quebec with just a few flurries and a gusty north wind expected. This will not be the case in Nova Scotia, PEI and New Brunswick where a full fledged spring blizzard is likely on Wednesday. What this storm will do for all of us is create a major pattern shift with the polar jet lifting back north of Montreal and allowing some much needed mild air into the region. Temperatures by next weekend will go well above freezing to plus 8C with rain likely. This trend will continue into the first week of April with lots of melting expected. Lets hope we have seen the last of winter 2013-2014.

Snowfall Warning

Snowfall warnings remain in effect along the St. Lawrence Valley from Montreal to Kingston today. Heavy snow with visibility down to under 1km is now falling in Cornwall and this will rapidly spread east into Montreal early this morning. Snow will be wet and heavy and taper off rapidly this afternoon. Look for a quick 10cm of snow for most places with as much as 15cm between Montreal and the US border. This will make road conditions very poor through the middle hours of the day with low visibility and icy roads. Temperatures will be near 0C (32F) today cooling off considerably tonight down to -12C. It will also turn windy tonight, out of the northwest at 30-50km/h with a few flurries.

On Sunday look for clearing skies, but temperatures will remain cold with daytime highs of -7C, well below the normal high of plus 5C. Most of the upcoming week looks quiet with lots of sunshine and a very slow warming trend that will see daytime highs finally go above freezing by late in the week.

COASTAL STORM
There is one glitch in the forecast and that is on Wednesday. Computer models have a very large and intense coastal low forming over the open waters of the Atlantic and tracking into the Maritimes. It will bring a very strong storm to Atlantic Canada and possibly coastal New England but at this time looks to travel well south and east of southern Quebec. It will need to be monitored in case the track shifts to the west.

More snow for Montreal

4pm Update: Snowfall Warning for metro Montreal, southern Quebec and most of Eastern Ontario for up to 15cm of wet snow overnight and Saturday. Winter weather advisory for upstate New York and Vermont. (3-6")

It is a chilly, breezy morning here on L'Ile Perrot with a current temperature of -3C but a gusty northwest wind up to 50km/h making it feel colder. A little light snow fell overnight, enough to coat the ground. Yesterday was rather mild with a high of  4C, and after the 3cm of snow that fell in Montreal we had about 6mm of rain. Today should be cloudy for the most part with temperatures right around 0C for a high.

We are expecting another shot of snow tonight and Saturday morning as low pressure moves from the Great Lakes across upstate New York. Snow should start in the pre-dawn hours in Montreal and continue through most of the morning. Amounts should range from 5-10cm in the city with perhaps as much as 15cm along the US border. Winds will be rather strong as well in the 20-40km/h range, so travel will be affected. No warnings are in place at this time but I will monitor the system today and post if any are issued. Environment Canada does have a special weather statement issued for the system. Colder air will move in behind the snow through next Wednesday with below normal lows in the minus teens and daytime highs around -4C.

Spring arrives today...at least on the calendar

Spring arrives today at 12:57 PM as the sun crosses the equator and moves into the Northern Hemisphere. The days are getting longer and in time the sun and warmth will win out over the cold and snow. In time, but for now the forecast does not look anything like spring. Please don't shoot the messenger, like everyone, I am so tired of this winter! While not being the worst I have seen, it has been relentless.

A photo from the Vermont State Police taken on I-89 this morning of a not so spring like message.

On Tuesday, Toronto reached the dubious distinction, for them anyway, of having at least 1cm of snow on the ground for 100 consecutive days. So I thought I would take a look at Montreal, specifically Trudeau Airport where the official stats are kept. Our first snowfall was November 26th, since that day we have had 109 days of snow accumulation on the ground greater than 1cm. That includes 100 consecutive days as off today. We had 4 such days in November, 27 days in December, followed by all of January, February and so far March. So indeed it has been a long winter. The piles of dirty snow sit high on everyone's front lawns and in parking lots across the city melting a little each day. Add to that all the frigid cold, strong winds and freezing rain and it has been a challenging few months for sure.

That brings us to this morning. We had a few centimetres of slushy wet snow overnight in Montreal, that has since turned to light rain. We are sitting just above the freezing point at 2C. Snow is still falling up towards Quebec City and north of St. Jerome in the Laurentians. Low pressure will pass east of Montreal this morning with light rain and snow tapering off. Temperatures will make it to 4C (39F) before sliding back below freezing tonight. More light snow is expected this evening. A few hours of clearing may take place Friday before another clipper system brings more snow, perhaps as much as 5-10cm into Saturday. Temperatures will be mild or near normal into Saturday before more cold air arrives on Sunday with well below normal temperatures into next week, lows in the minus teens and highs around -4C. As I said, don't shoot the messenger!

Winter hangs on in Quebec

The story remains the same across southern Quebec and a large part of eastern North America, cold. Despite the Vernal Equinox being less than 48 hours away, spring is nowhere to be found. It is cold again this morning with the low at -17C at my home, well below the normal low of -6C. Again we will slowly warm today and reach -4C by late this afternoon. Tonight will not be as cold as a southwest wind develops ahead of the next low pressure area from the central plains. This low will pass across the Great Lakes and into Ontario passing north of Montreal. Clouds will increase early Wednesday followed by milder air with a rain/snow mix expected across Ontario and Quebec from midday Wednesday into early Thursday morning. The Ottawa Valley could see 5-10cm of snow while I expect amounts will be less than 5cm for Montreal as we mix and change to rain later in the day. Temperatures will warm to above freezing at 2C (36F), but that is still below normal.

Looking ahead we have a chance for more snow on Saturday, perhaps as much as 10cm in Montreal followed by another surge of cold air from Sunday into next week. It is worth mentioning that the law for having snow tires installed on your vehicle came to an end March 15. That being said, I will not be taking mine of anytime soon and you probably should not either.

Frigid March morning

One of the perils of this winter across Eastern North America has been the tremendous build up of ice and snow that is loosening in the March sun. In the past week, several large chunks of ice have fallen from roofs and struck cars. Thankfully no one has been seriously hurt. The ice above fell from an apartment roof in Connecticut last week. (Photo NBC Connecticut)

We just missed the record low this morning in Montreal at the airport at least, dropping to -16C, the record was -20C set in 1950. It was cold everywhere with -20C on L'Ile Perrot, -26C in Lennoxville and Granby, -24C in St. Jerome and -22C in Cornwall.

This morning was also the coldest St. Patrick's Day morning in 129 years in Burlington, Vermont where it is currently -8F (-22C), the record was -6F (-21C) set in 1885. Look for a rapid increase in temperatures today under light winds and the warm March sun. High temperatures are forecast around -6C, a vast improvement over the -9C on Sunday with those biting northwest winds. The cold and wind failed to keep large crowds from enjoying the 191st Annual St. Patrick's Day Parade in Montreal. Temperatures were around -10C with a gusty wind that made it feel closer to -20C. But a least it was dry and sunny. The event has never failed to run, despite terrible weather some years with cold, wind snow and rain. That included the March 1993 parade that was held the morning after the super storm that dumped 45cm of snow on the city. Snowplows were part of the parade, but the event went on.

This week will be a little milder, but still below normal for mid to late March. Sunshine today and Tuesday will be replaced by clouds with flurries or showers for Wednesday and Thursday. It will be chilly today, but warm to above freezing by Wednesday.

Temperature roller coaster ride for Montreal

After the snow of Wednesday and Thursday we are waking to clear skies in Montreal, but it is cold with the current temperature and our morning low here on L'Ile Perrot at -19C. It is a touch milder at the airport at -17C. The final snow totals are in and they fell into the forecast amount of 15-25cm, the most here on L'Ile Perrot and points south to the US border, with lesser amounts on the island of Montreal north into Laval and the Laurentians. Officially the airport had 17cm, while I measured 20cm (8 inches). Sherbrooke in the Eastern Townships was in the 30-35cm range while Burlington, Vermont had a whopping 45cm (18 inches). It was the 4th biggest March storm on record and 12th overall for Burlington.

The weekend forecast for Montreal will feature a brief rise in temperatures before they crash again on Sunday. We will go from our cold morning lows of -19C today up to 0C by late in the day. Look for a bit of light snow late this afternoon, perhaps 1-3cm. Tonight will be cloudy with temperatures rising to 4C by Saturday morning. Expect a few showers overnight that will turn back to flurries by noon Saturday as the mercury falls again. Low by Sunday morning will be cold around -12C with highs for the parade Sunday no better than -7C. It will at least be sunny and dry on Sunday.

MARCH 1993 SUPER STORM

Today is the anniversary of the big super storm of March 13-14, 1993. Montreal had over 40cm of snow and fierce winds, enough to keep the Gazette delivery trucks in their driveways. (Mine was literally buried). The paper was cancelled that Sunday morning for the first and only time in my 15 year career at The Montreal Gazette. You can read more about that storm HERE.

More snow Friday - when will this winter end?

Late Wednesday afternoon in Montreal.

 Our latest winter storm is now affecting Atlantic Canada after dumping close to 20cm on southern Quebec. More snow fell to the south with as much as 30cm along the US border, a little less in Montreal's northern suburbs. This morning we are left with light snow and blowing snow until about noon, with slowly clearing skies by late it the day. It is cold this morning, well below normal at -15C with a windchill of -25C. Roads are in terrible shape with hard packed snow in many areas and still reduced visibility on open highways off island. On Wednesday numerous accidents were reported including one the forced the closure of Highway 201 near Highway 20 in Coteau du Lac for several hours last night. This morning there are several closures east of Montreal around Quebec City as well as the lower St. Lawrence and Chaudière-Appalaches.

The weather will remain cold today with highs no better than -10C dropping to -18C tonight under clear skies with deep snow and diminishing winds. On Friday another weaker low pressure area will move across the Great Lakes and into southern Quebec with 2-4cm of snow. It will be much milder up to -1C. Saturday looks like the best day of the week with cloudy skies and a mild high of plus 3C. A strong cold front may produce some snow late Saturday. On Sunday the weather looks cloudy and colder at -7C for Montreal's St. Patrick's Day Parade.

I wish I could tell you that warmer weather was around the corner, but the balance of March looks colder than normal, which makes me think we have more snow in our future.

Winter Storm Update

The center of this late season winter storm is moving from central Pennsylvania to New York City this evening with heavy snow to the north and mixed precipitation and thunderstorms to the south.

A strong winter storm is currently well underway across southern Quebec and eastern Ontario. Roads are snow covered as the heaviest snow begins to affect metro Montreal. In addition to the heavier snow, strong winds have developed, up to 60km/h at Trudeau Airport in the last hour. They will continue to gust to 70km/h until at least midnight. In terms of accumulations, Montreal has had between 3-5cm so far with 10-15cm across southern Ontario. Storm totals for Montreal will fall into the 15-25cm range once the snow tapers off Thursday morning. Temperatures have fallen dramatically all day from 0C at 5am to -9C currently with a windchill of -19C. Visibility is now under 1km in blowing snow.

The storm is affecting a large portion of the region from the Great Lakes into New England. The photo above from the Burlington Free Press was taken on Interstate 89 in northern Vermont this afternoon.

Powerful winter storm for southern Ontario & Quebec

The Weather Channel warnings map shows the extent of this upcoming winter storm. Weather warnings spread form the Midwest US into Atlantic Canada.

First of all this morning, always remember just how challenging a month March can be. It can feature summer like warmth but also has the distinction of producing some of the biggest snowstorms this city has recorded, 1971 and 1993 come to mind, just to name a few. This one may be another.

A large late season winter storm is expected to move from Kentucky towards New York City today while strengthening. The system has already spread a swath of heavy snow from Chicago to Detroit/Windsor this morning and it is creeping towards the Lake Erie shoreline in Ontario. The storm has even produced thunder and lightning with the heavy snow across Indiana. Snow is forecast to arrive around noon in Montreal becoming heavy this afternoon for the commute and lasting overnight. Widespread blowing snow will also occur as winds increase out of the northeast to 70km/h by late in the day, backing to the north after midnight and gradually decreasing. Storm totals forecast are from 15-25cm (6-10 inches) for the Montreal to Kingston corridor with less to the north of the St. Lawrence River. Meanwhile between 30-60cm (1-2 feet) is forecast across the Eastern Townships and into Vermont and New York. Travel off island to the south may become very difficult this afternoon. In western New York winds expected close to 100km/h have prompted rare blizzard warnings.

Temperatures are rather mild this morning at -2C but are expected to drop as the snow starts, down to -4C by late in the day and to -15C by Thursday morning. Blowing snow is expected to reduce visibility to near zero at times late today and tonight. Skies will slowly clear out Thursday afternoon as the storm moves into Atlantic Canada. It will remain cold on Thursday with gusty winds.

Winter Storm Warning

This graphic is from the NWS in Burlington, Vermont, and gives you an idea of the extent of the heavy snow up to the US border. The amounts listed are in inches. Between 15-20cm (6-8 inches) of snow should fall in metro-Montreal with warnings now in effect for Wednesday.

An appetizer of wet snow fell late last evening and into the wee hours this Tuesday morning with around 3-5cm of new snow. It is a very mild morning here on L'Ile Perrot at plus 1C (33F). Enjoy it folks as we have a major winter snowstorm bearing down on the region Wednesday. Low pressure will come together across the Midwest today and move across the Ohio Valley and towards New York City. All the ingredients are coming together for a big storm to develop. Warm air will be in place initially but arctic air will pour in behind the system.

Snow is expected to begin Wednesday morning and become heavy in the afternoon in southern Quebec and Eastern Ontario. We may have rates of several centimetres per hour at the height of the storm. The St. Lawrence Valley can expect 15-20cm of snow with amounts of up to 30-40cm across the Eastern Townships, Beauce and Gaspe and into upstate New York and Vermont. Winter Storm Warnings are now in effect for metro Montreal and well as the entire length of the St. Lawrence Valley. Warnings extend into Ontario as well as Atlantic Canada and New England. Winds will increase in the afternoon, gusting up to 70km/h and with temperatures forecast to plummet to -10C by late in the day, blowing snow will become a problem. Travel will be very poor in all regions of extreme southern Quebec with low visibility and snow covered roads. If you plan to travel Wednesday, you may want to make alternate plans. The snow will only taper off early Thursday. Temperatures will be mild today around plus 3C. The low tonight will be -3C and with the onset of snow Wednesday, the temperature will drop to -10C by late in the day.

More snow for Montreal

The light snow that fell in the pre-dawn hours Saturday sent this truck into the ditch closing the 401 near 4th Line Road at the Quebec/Ontario border. The 54 year old Quebec driver was taken to Cornwall Hospital with serious injuries. Travel will become slippery again tonight and especially Wednesday in the entire region as winter continues. (ValleyWX Photos)

More snow fell overnight in Montreal with around 3cm observed over most parts of southern Quebec. It is currently a chilly -6C on L'Ile Perrot with also around 3 or 4cm of new snow. We will have a break today with partly sunny skies and mild temperatures near the freezing point. This comes after a decent weekend with a little snow and freezing drizzle early Saturday followed by sunshine and mild temperatures for the balance of the weekend. Last nights system is to our southeast this morning and will be followed by another weak clipper system with more snow tonight. It looks similar to last night with 1-3cm likely. Tuesday will be mild with high temperatures up to plus 3C.

COASTAL STORM

Beyond that the forecast becomes interesting a little tricky for southern Quebec and extreme eastern Ontario. Low pressure is forecast to develop over the southern plains and move towards the middle Atlantic and eventually up the eastern Seaboard towards Cape Cod. This system will spread a wide swath of precipitation in the form of rain and wet snow across New England. The northern edge of the storm is forecast to affect the Townships and Gaspe as well as most of Atlantic Canada. The outer portions of the storm may catch Montreal and the border regions of New York and Vermont on Wednesday. At this time the best guest is for some snow on Wednesday in Montreal, quite windy with blowing snow, especially south of the city. 

A winter storm watch is now in effect for all of Vermont and New York including the St. Lawrence Valley of New York. They may be extended north into extreme southern Quebec later today. Accumulations at this time will range from 15-20cm over Vermont and New York as well as the Townships with perhaps 5-10cm for Montreal. Those amounts will be fine tuned up or down as the track and intensity become more clear. In any event, expect snow Wednesday across a wide area of eastern North America with slow travel by air and ground into Thursday morning.