Freeze & thaw winter weather wearing down Montreal

Highway 20, west of Montreal, was closed overnight after a fatal, multi-vehicle accident around 11:45pm. The collision, near the Ontario border, involved at least a dozen cars and 7 trucks. (Radio Canada Photo)

Freezing Drizzle Advisory posted for Montreal.

Accidents, school closures, huge potholes, damaged roofs and trips to the emergency room with broken bones have become the norm in Montreal this winter. The non-stop freeze and thaw cycle is taking a toll on the city and southwest portion of the province. Since the weekend, Montreal has recorded nearly 10cm of snow and an additional 10mm of rain or freezing rain.

Thick ice is literally everywhere in Montreal. This month alone, the highest temperature at Trudeau Airport was 6.4C (44F), while the coldest was -18C (0F). Keep in mind, it is only February 7th! Over the next 36 hours, Montreal will go from the current temperature of -6C (21F), up to 7C (45F) by tomorrow morning, and back down to -7C (19F) by Friday afternoon. Freezing drizzle today will transition into a steadier freezing rain/rain mixture this evening, before changing to plain rain overnight. On Friday, a strong cold front will sweep across the St. Lawrence Valley, with rain changing to light snow by the afternoon. As the temperatures drop, the city will freeze over once again. Winds will become very strong as well on Friday, gusting between 50 and 80km/h.

Major Accidents
The freezing rain late Wednesday afternoon started off island to the south and west of the city around the evening commute, and spread into Montreal by 7pm. The hardest hit area was from Ile Perrot into eastern Ontario and south into New York and northern Vermont. Travel quickly became dangerous, with several major multi-vehicle accidents reported by police. One occurred on Highway 30 near Beauharnois, closing the road for several hours. A more serious accident occurred at 11:45pm in the eastbound lanes of Highway 20 at Riviere-Beaudette near the Ontario border. In this case, one fatality and two serious injuries were reported in the collision, which involved at least a dozen cars  and 7 transport trucks. The highway was closed until 4:30am Thursday, forcing hundreds of motorists to spend the night in their vehicles. Traffic backed up into Ontario, with the Ontario Provincial Police helping their Quebec colleagues.

Briefly looking ahead, the pattern that has seen very cold air in western Canada, and highly variable weather here in the east, is expected to persist. This weekend will be sunny and cold in Montreal, however another winter storm is forecast early next week. Depending on the exact path of the system, we may be looking at another messy mix of rain and snow.

Warmer air will bring a round of freezing rain to Montreal

Frozen In Time...Saturday was Groundhog Day, with the various rodents across North America unable to agree on whether or not we will have an early Spring. It may be Springtime before this motorist is able to free their car in Saint-Laurent. More messy precipitation is on the way for Montreal this week. (Valley Weather Photo)

 A milder weather pattern will establish itself over the next 48 hours across eastern Ontario and southern Quebec. On Saturday, a weak clipper system proved to be quite the nuisance, producing between 5 and 15cm of snow, depending whose measurements you believe, and creating chaos on area roads. Despite the light amount of snowfall, several major accidents occurred, including a 200 vehicle pile-up on Highway 20 near Val-Alain, east of Montreal. There were scores of smaller accidents across the region as well.

Our attention today turns to a warm front moving north from southern New England. As the warmer air overrides the cold air at the surface, light snow will start late this afternoon in southern Quebec. The snow will mix with and change to freezing rain in the St. Lawrence Valley overnight and into early Monday. The freezing rain should be on the light side, so the hope is that any impacts will be minimal. However weather warnings may be required later today. The temperature will rise form early Sunday readings in the minus teens, up to -5C (23F) today. The weather will continue to warm overnight, approaching 0C (32F) in Montreal by noon on Monday. If all goes as planned, the city should warm above the freezing point Monday afternoon.

This weeks warming trend will be a welcome sight across the western counties of New York State. Over the last week, several regions, including Adams, New York, shown above, were buried under feet of lake effect snow. (Adams VFD Photo)

Right behind that batch of precipitation, a stronger system will cross the Great Lakes on Monday, bringing another round of freezing rain and eventually plain rain as the temperature continues to warm late in the day. On Tuesday, a cold front will bring a return to cooler temperatures, along with flurries. The weather will remain active through the balance of the week, with another storm system arriving by Thursday along a mix of snow and freezing rain once again.

In the near-term, the cold, arctic air that prevailed across Great Lakes, will retreat across western Canada. A winter storm will produce blizzard conditions today from extreme southern Saskatchewan across southern Manitoba, northern Montana and into the Dakotas. Extremely cold air and dangerous windchill values will prevail all week across western Canada.

Arctic outbreak to skirt southern Quebec

This very Canadian image of kids playing hockey on an icy Highway 40, east of Montreal, has gone viral. The children, along with hundreds of motorists, were forced into a long wait after a multiple vehicle accident closed the highway for several hours on Sunday. The video has been shared around the world by several major news organizations and on social media. I obtained the screenshot from CBC.ca

A fierce cold wave is underway across western and central Canada from southern Saskatchewan into Ontario. The extreme cold has forced the cancellation of schools and the closure of businesses across the upper Midwest, northern Plains and into the southern Prairies. Temperatures dropped into the -40s Wednesday morning, including -47C at Collins Bay, Saskatchewan. In Winnipeg, the temperature bottomed out near -40C, with windchill values in the -50s. The cold airmass is crossing over the much warmer Great Lakes, producing heavy snow in the lake effect snow-belts. In western New York, a blizzard warning has been issued for Jefferson and Lewis Counties, including Watertown, New York and the I-81 corridor. Interstate 81 is a well travelled route by Canadians heading south, but not in the next 48 hours. The forecast calls for as much as 3 feet of wind-driven snow, with temperatures near -18C (0F). Travel is not advised. Further west in Erie County, New York, a state of emergency and travel ban have been put in place. Some of that snow is drifting northeast this afternoon and affecting Highway 401 west of Cornwall towards Kington.

All across central Canada and the northern US, widespread cold and windchill warnings are in effect. Even locally windchill advisories are up for northern New York and Vermont. The arctic boundary will cross southern Quebec later today, with a few clouds, flurries and gusty west winds. The temperature will drop to -21C (-6F) in Montreal tonight, with windchills in the -30s. Sunshine is expected Thursday, along with strong west winds up to 50km/h, and a cold high of -15C (5F). The weather will remain cold into the start of the weekend, along with the chance for more light snow. Temperatures will warm up on Sunday and into early next week with the chance for snow, rain or freezing rain.

On Tuesday, the combination of a weakening clipper system and a coastal low, produced snow across southern Quebec. While amounts were less than expected, we still managed 10 to 25cm across the region. In Montreal, about 12cm fell, enough to create slow travel on slick roads.

New winter storm to impact southern Quebec & Ontario

Brief snow squalls on Sunday resulted in several major accidents in southern Quebec. The one above occurred on Highway 40 east of Montreal near L'Assomption. The crash involved over 50 vehicles. Thankfully only minor injuries were reported. (Photo: by Mario Labrecque via The Weather Network)

UPDATE: Special Weather Statement for 5-10cm of snow for metro Montreal.

The next in a series of winter storms is on the horizon for southern Ontario and Quebec. The storm will be followed by the coldest airmass of the season. First we have a very cold Monday on tap after the passage of an arctic boundary late Sunday afternoon. That front produced widespread snow squall activity, that brought zero visibility at times in bursts of heavy snow. The brief squalls resulted in two major accidents on area highways. The first occurred along Highway 640 near Rosemere. The second, involving at least 50 vehicles, occurred near L'Assomption on Highway 40. In the latter case, the road was closed for the entire afternoon while first responders helped the injured, and the damaged vehicles were removed.

After the skies cleared Sunday night, the temperature dropped rapidly in Montreal, down to -20C (-4F). As of late Monday morning, the temperature had only risen a degree to -19 (-2F). Our calm weather will be short-lived as another major storm is forecast to arrive early Tuesday. Low pressure will move across the Great Lakes, dumping steady snow from the upper Midwest into southern Ontario. A second storm is forecast to develop along the US east coast and move northeast towards Atlantic Canada. The combination of both lows will produce a wide swath of 10 to 20cm of snow across eastern Ontario and into southern Quebec. Gusty winds, up to 50km/h, will accompany the snow, producing areas of blowing and drifting. Travel will become difficult on Tuesday across a wide area including New England, New York, Ontario and Quebec. Numerous weather warnings and watches are in effect.

If that were not enough, once the snow ends on Wednesday morning, arctic air will pour into the region. Temperatures will drop into the minus 20s late Wednesday, with windchill readings in the minus 30s.

If you thought January has been rather difficult so far, you would be right. To date, Montreal has received 70cm of snow along with 40mm of rain and freezing rain. The wild temperature swings and thick ice have added to the miserable weather. In comparison, November and December combined only produced 55cm of snow.

Ice and snow create miserable January weather in Montreal

Heavy snow, freezing rain and rain have made a mess of Montreal roads this week. The latest problem on Thursday morning was massive amounts of standing water. Drivers had to negotiate the massive puddles on Cote-Vertu in Saint Laurent, shown above. Those giant lakes will freeze solid tonight as temperatures drop back below freezing. (Valley Weather Photo)

The second storm in less than a week has left Montreal under a layer of snow, ice and water. On Wednesday, 15cm of snow fell at Trudeau Airport, with over 20cm south of the St Lawrence from Ile Perrot to Cornwall. That brings the weekly accumulations up to 40 to 50cm of snow. On top of that, nearly 15mm of rain and freezing rain has fallen overnight. The snow on Wednesday created long commute times across the region as snow covered icy roads resulted in hundreds of accidents. Several roads were closed for a time, including Highway 20 near St. Zotique after two transports collided.

A dump truck took out a hydro pole in Pierrefonds early Thursday morning. Freezing rain and rain on top of 40cm of snow this week, have left roads in very poor condition. Motorists have had to deal with hundreds of accidents and many road closures. (Radio Canada Photo)

The snow changed to freezing rain overnight in southern Quebec, coating trees and power lines. Rain is falling this morning in Montreal, with the temperature just above freezing at 0.5C (33F). The heavy rain and melting snow has produced massive amounts of standing water, with flooding reported in many sections of the city. Freezing rain is still falling north of the city. The ice has created problems with the Hydro Quebec power grid, with over 20,000 customers in the dark from Montreal north into the Laurentians. The poor weather has also forced the cancelation of classes for most students across southern Quebec on Thursday. Most major school boards on the Island of Montreal have given students and staff the day off.

Colder weather returns
A cold front will cross metro Montreal this afternoon, changing any rain over to snow as the temperature drops below freezing. All this standing water will freeze solid overnight, creating new problems on area roads. The overnight low in Montreal will be a chilly -10C (14F), with a high on Friday of -5C (23F). The weather will remain windy and colder into the weekend, with scattered flurries. There is the chance for another storm early next week, but we will recover form this week first before we go into more details.

Warming trend brings heavy snow & freezing rain to Montreal

Another round of heavy snow across southern Quebec brought morning traffic to a standstill in Montreal. For the third consecutive day, area highways were snow packed with black ice everywhere. Transport Quebec reported dozens of accidents on and off the Island of Montreal. (Valley Weather Photo)

Snowfall Warning: Ile Perrot, Vaudreuil-Dorion & Valleyfield
Freezing Rain Warning: Southern Quebec
Winter Storm Warning: Ottawa Valley & Eastern Ontario

A strong warm front has been the focus for heavy snow this morning across southwestern Quebec. As of 11am, over 12cm had fallen here on Ile Perrot, with another 5 to 10cm possible this afternoon. The snow has made a mess of roads across metro Montreal, with many commuters taking over two hours to reach the city. Conditions continue to be very poor on area highways with Transport Quebec reporting numerous accidents across all regions of southern Quebec.

Precipitation will change over to freezing rain later this evening in Montreal and eventually rain overnight. The temperature has been rising very slowly here in the St. Lawrence Valley, up to our current reading of -10C (14F). If all goes as planned, the warm air should eventually win over, with temperatures rising above freezing late tonight here in the city. The high on Thursday will be near 5C (41F), reached early in the morning. A cold front will arrive in the afternoon accompanied by strong winds up to 60km/h. Any rain will change back to snow and continue into the evening hours. The temperature will fall to -1C (30F) by the evening commute.

Warming trend for Montreal but with more snow forecast

Road conditions were terrible across southwestern Quebec and eastern Ontario on Sunday. This snowplow hit the ditch along Highway 401 near Prescott, Ontario. (OPP East Region Photo)

The biggest snowstorm of the season to date is winding down across southern Quebec on Monday afternoon. The frigid, windy storm produced numerous accidents, some school closures, flight delays and power outages. The storm had far reaching effects, impacting Ontario to Atlantic Canada south into New York, New England and the US Midwest.

Light snow and blowing snow continues in Montreal Monday afternoon, along with bitterly cold temperatures. After a morning low of -22C (-8F), the best we have managed so far is -20C (-4F). The cold temperatures combined with a stiff northwest wind, are producing windchill values in the minus 30s. Sunday's snowstorm, while not the worst the city has seen, was the coldest in almost a century for Montreal. The last time is was this cold during a major snowstorm was on January 16, 1920. On that day, Montreal received 30.2cm of snow with a daytime high of -19.2C. The high on Sunday was only -15C. The city received 25cm of snow, with 30cm falling in the Eastern Townships and close to 50cm in the Gaspe region. In Ontario, 35cm fell in Cornwall, 27cm in Ottawa and 22cm in Kemptville.

Heavy equipment cleaning the streets of Montreal during the storm. (CTV News)

The snow created very dangerous travel conditions with widespread blowing and drifting snow and near zero visibility on highways to the south and east of Montreal. Transport Quebec closed several roads east of Quebec City. Dozens of accidents were reported in the Montreal region as well as across eastern Ontario. The poor road conditions continued during the Monday morning commute, with the temperature being too cold for salt to work. Roads remained snow packed, with reports of black ice, poor visibility and many more accidents.

Road conditions will not improve much over the next few days, with cold weather forecast, followed by another winter storm on Wednesday. The good news is that temperatures should moderate into Wednesday, and may even go above freezing for a period. The bad news is we can expect another 10cm of snow in Montreal, mixed at times with freezing rain. Cold weather will return to end the work week.

Winter Storm Warning in effect for Montreal

Widespread weather warnings for extreme cold and heavy snow stretch from central Canada to the Atlantic coast.

Winter Storm Warning in effect for Montreal, southern Quebec and the St. Lawrence Valley

A strong winter storm is forecast to impact the St. Lawrence Valley beginning late today and persisting though Sunday. A dangerous combination of heavy snow, strong winds and bitter cold will make for near-blizzard conditions at times. Travel is not recommend on Sunday anywhere in our region. Widespread weather warnings and advisories stretch form the US Midwest across Ontario and Quebec and into Atlantic Canada. Across New England and New York heavy snow will fall to the north, with a mix of snow and ice across the south.

Storm totals could easily exceed 60cm in several locations across eastern Canada and the US over the next 48 hours. Here in Montreal, we will remain on the northern edge of the storm, with 15 to 25cm expected. (AccuWeather)

Near blizzard conditions
For Montreal, the snow will begin after 5pm Saturday, and become heavy overnight. Winds will increase out of the northeast up to 40km/h today and 70km/h on Sunday. The wind will produce considerable blowing and drifting snow. Forecast accumulations will be in the range of 10cm for Ottawa and the lower Laurentians, 15-25cm for Montreal and the St. Lawrence Valley, and 30 to 60cm from the Townships into northern New England.

Dangerous windchill values
Temperatures will be dangerously cold. The overnight low this morning was the coldest of the season in Montreal at -21C (-7F). The high today in Montreal will only be -20C (-4F), that combined with a strengthening wind, will produce a windchill in the -30s. On Sunday, the high will only be -16C (4F), with windchill readings remaining in the minus 30s to near -40C locally.

The storm system in question will move from Washington D.C. tonight, across southeast New England and into New Brunswick on Sunday. Behind the storm on Monday, expect flurries with gusty northwest winds and very cold temperatures. Warmer weather returns by Wednesday, but with the threat for more snow.

Powerful winter storm to impact southern Quebec this weekend

Montreal has had a rather tame winter so far this year, with mostly nuisance snow falling. To date, only 77cm of snow has fallen at Trudeau Airport. That may change this weekend, as a major snowstorm crosses New England. Near-blizzard conditions are possible on Sunday. (ValleyWeather)

Cold air has surged back into southern Quebec on Thursday morning, with temperatures over 20 degrees colder than they were on Wednesday afternoon. The arctic front also produced scattered snow squalls as it moved across the region yesterday. Arctic high pressure in control of our weather today, will slide east of Montreal tonight, allowing for a weak storm system to bring light snow into the region. Snow will begin overnight, with 1 to 3cm expected for Montreal.

Depending on the track of the storm, parts of the St. Lawrence Valley could receive up to 30cm of wind driven snow on Sunday. (AccuWeather.com)

The big weather news will come this weekend, as a powerful winter storm takes shape over Kentucky, and moves towards southern New England. Computer models are in general agreement that a storm is on the way, what they can't agree on is the exact track. At this time, we can expect snow to start in Montreal during the evening hours Saturday and persist through Sunday. For Montreal and points south, 15 to 30cm is likely, with Montreal being on the lower end of the range. North and west of Montreal towards Ottawa and across eastern Ontario, 5 to 15cm is likely. South of the border across central New England, 30 to 50cm is possible. Snowfall amounts will become clearer as the storm develops. A final track difference of 50 to 100km north or south will have a tremendous impact on how much snow falls here in Montreal.

Near-blizzard conditions for Montreal
Regardless of the amount of snow that occurs, near blizzard conditions are expected in the St. Lawrence Valley. The combination of falling, blowing and drifting snow, bitter cold temperatures in the minus teens and 50 to 70km/h north and northeast winds will make travel dangerous on Sunday. Windchill values on Sunday with the storm will be in the minus 30s in Montreal. Travel on Sunday in southern Quebec, eastern Ontario and New England is not recommended. Travel will remain very poor in eastern Quebec and Atlantic Canada into Monday.

Conditions will improve Monday in Montreal, but the weather will remain windy and bitterly cold. Winter Storm Watches have been posted across all of New England and New York, with a special weather statement for southern Quebec. Warnings or advisories will likely be needed for Montreal as the event draws closer.

Major pattern change expected in Montreal to end January

The first snowstorm of the season impacted areas of the Middle Atlantic and southern US this past weekend. More snow and cold is forecast starting next weekend, which will likely cause major travel delays to and from the US east coast. The photo above was taken at a favourite location of many Montrealers, Cape May, New Jersey. (Photo David Paterno Weather Page)

With the exception of this past weekend, the winter so far has been rather docile in southern Quebec. Montreal has measured only 76.2cm of snow, 41cm of that falling in November. Until this weekend, the city had been blessed with frequent above freezing temperatures. The recent cold snap, that started Friday, has seen temperatures close to -20C, but even that is not too extreme for January in Montreal. On the weekend, we managed to miss a storm travelling across the southern US. Snow spread from the midwest across the Appalachians and into the middle Atlantic, including Washington D.C.

Changes are on the way for Quebec and Ontario. There are strong indications that frigid arctic air will flood into the eastern third of the country starting as early as next weekend. A marked pattern change is in our future, that would see well below normal temperatures through the start of February. The first taste of that will come later this week after the passage of an arctic front late Wednesday. The front will be accompanied by light snow and gusty winds. A second cold front arrives Friday, with another shot of snow, gusty winds and dropping temperatures. 

Next weekend, several computer models are hinting at a strong winter storm moving up the eastern seaboard. This storm may brush Montreal with more snow. The bigger story will be the arctic air that is pulled southward on the backside of the system. Temperatures may drop into the minus 20s by the end of the weekend, accompanied by strong winds and biting windchills.

A brief look towards the end of the month shows nothing but cold temperatures, with several chances for measurable snow. There are still lots of details to work out with each individual storm, but one thing is looking more and more certain, it will remain cold.

2018 was a year of extreme weather in Montreal

It was, to say the least, a wild weather year in Montreal, packed with extremes. The year started off on a frigid note, -23.3C (-10F) at midnight on January 1st, under an extreme cold advisory. The cold snap would dominate the first week of the month, with near-record electrical consumption under -40C windchill values.

Within 24 hours, Montreal went form a record setting 10C (50F), to the biggest single day snowstorm of 2018, 30.4cm on January 13th. (valley Weather Photo)

Record high to record snowstorm in 24 hours
The arctic weather however would take a rather sharp turn with a pronounced January thaw from the 10th to the 12th of the month. Montreal would observe a record high of 10C (50F) on January 12th, smashing the old record of 5.3C (41F) set in 1986. The warmth would be short-lived, with the temperature dropping to 0C by the end of the day. Over the following 24 hours, temperatures would plummet to -22C (-8F), along with the largest snowstorm of the year. On Saturday, January 13th, heavy snow would fall over southern Quebec, with 30.4cm blanketing the city in less than 24 hours. The snow was accompanied by 90km/h winds and rapidly dropping temperatures. The storm would destroy the previous record for the date of 12.8cm set in 1979. By the morning of January 15th, Montreal would record its coldest low for 2018 of -26.7C (-16F).

The May 4th windstorm caused widespread damage across southern Quebec. This sign toppled onto Hydro Quebec power lines on Ile Perrot. (Valley Weather Photo)

May Windstorm
On Friday, May 4th, a powerful cold front swept across Ontario and southern Quebec, producing hurricane force wind gusts. The strongest wind reported was in Hamilton, Ontario at 126km/h. Montreal was not too far behind, measuring a speed of 117km/h (72 mph) during the late evening. The wind had devastating effects on the power grid, with 350 poles severed in Ontario alone. Nearly 550,000 hydro customers were left without power across the two provinces, some would remain in the dark for days. The wind also toppled scores of trees, some onto cars and homes. Widespread damage to roofs, signs and anything not tied down was also reported. Sadly, 3 storm related fatalities were reported in Ontario. The Insurance Bureau of Canada estimated damages at $1 billion, the most expensive Canadian storm in nearly five years.

Tropical Heatwave
Montreal is accustomed to hot and humid weather in the summer, especially July, but the heatwave of 2018 was exceptional. The combination of heat and humidity would keep humidex values above 30C day and night for over a week. During the 7 day period between June 29th and July 5th, Montreal observed 4 record highs, including the warmest temperature of 2018 at 35.3C (96F) on July 2nd. Parts of the city were even warmer, including downtown and on Ile Perrot was I observed 36.2C (97F). That temperature would fall just short of the all-time record for the city of 37.6C (99F) set in 1975. The dangerous combination of heat and humidity resulted in at least 90 deaths in Quebec. In Montreal, 911 calls were up by 30 percent, and cooling centres were opened across the city. The heatwave was part of a very warm summer, with 20 daytime highs at or above 30C at Trudeau Airport, the normal is 9. The month of July would end with an average high temperature of 29.5C and low of 18.8C, both well above the long-term average of 26.3C and 16.1C respectively.

The searing heatwave of July 2018 was accompanied by a spectacular thunderstorm on Canada Day. The image above was taken by photographer Steve Walsh, along the St. Lawrence River in Verdun. 

Green Christmas
Our warm summer would persist into September and early October with summer-like weather occurring. It was a year without Autumn in southern Quebec with a very late frost and early snow. Montreal would seemingly go from our hot summer, straight into winter in mid-November. The early season snowstorm on November 16th created havoc on area highways, catching most motorists unprepared for winter driving. Despite the early snow, very mild weather in December would result in a green Christmas for Montreal. The year would end considerably milder than it started, with 0C and light rain just prior to midnight on December 31st.

Another mixed precipitation winter storm for Montreal

Low pressure and a strong warm front will produce a period of steady snow tonight in Montreal. We can expect 5 to 10cm in Montreal and across the Ottawa Valley, with more falling to the north of both cities. Strong winds will accompany the snow, producing areas of blowing snow and reduced visibility. (AccuWeather)

Snowfall Warning: Mont Tremblant, Sainte-Agathe, Sainte-Adele
Wind Warning: Richelieu Valley

The current weather pattern that has been well established since early December, will deal another mixed precipitation event to Montreal and the St. Lawrence Valley. A winter storm developing over the central US, will move towards the Great Lakes and just south of Montreal on Tuesday. A surge of warm, moist air is anticipated in advance of the low pressure. Snow will develop this evening in eastern Ontario and by midnight in Montreal. A decent swath of 5 to 10cm should be on the ground by the Tuesday morning commute, with 15 to 20cm expected north of the city across the Laurentians and into western Quebec.

The snow will mix with and gradually change over to freezing drizzle in Montreal tomorrow morning, and finally rain showers by noon on Tuesday. The temperature will do another wild roller coaster ride in Montreal, rising from this mornings low of -17C (2F), up to -5C (23F) by Tuesday morning and eventually above freezing to 2C (36F) by Tuesday afternoon. Accompanying the precipitation will be strong winds in excess of 50km/h in Montreal, and over 90km/h in the Richelieu Valley south and east of the city. As the low pressure moves east of Montreal, colder air will return, changing precipitation back to snow late Tuesday night. Further accumulations are likely into Wednesday. Much colder air will return by the end of the week, with daytime highs by Friday expected to be well below the normal of -6C.

Valley Weather - a way of life for 40 years

Happy New Year! 
It is hard for me to wrap my thoughts around the reality that we are in 2019. It was a bizarre weather year in Montreal to say the least, from the frigid cold snap in January, to the wicked May windstorm, the deadly record-breaking summer heatwave, and finally, our green Christmas. I will take a look at some of the big weather events from 2018 in my next post.

Valley Weather turns 40 years old

I want to share a personal milestone with you: 2019 marks the 40th anniversary of Valley Weather. I have been obsessed with the weather my entire life, a love affair that began innocently enough during the famed Montreal Blizzard of the Century, March 3-5, 1971. From there, a fear of thunderstorms eventually turned to curiosity and the desire to know what causes them. During Christmas 1979, my father bought me a desk calendar and encouraged me to start keeping track of the daily weather. I did and have continued for 40 consecutive years. At first, I recorded what I was seeing, which gave me a tremendous understanding of the mechanics that create weather in Montreal. Later I produced my own weather maps and dabbled in forecasting, while sharing my information with family, friends and eventually my co-workers at the Montreal Gazette.

What I first called the Verdun Amateur Weather Bureau back in January 1979, and later VAWB while I was living in southern Saskatchewan, became Valley Weather while writing for the Kemptville Advance in 2005. The name came from my joy of growing up in the St. Lawrence Valley, along the shores of the mighty river. Our region is one of the most challenging forecast locations in North America.

The science of weather has changed over the years and is now driven by advanced satellite, radar and super computers. But at its core, lies the simple task of observing and recording what you see outside.

Over the years, my interest has presented itself in many different formats, from my personal collection of weather data, to my time at the Dawson College student radio station, to finally writing for the Gravelbourg Tribune, Kemptville Advance and The Suburban here in Montreal. My first columns were in print only, but as social media grew, I made the jump onto the web. Now, thousands of maps, data entries and columns later, here we are in 2019!

I want to thank each and every one of you who have taken the time to chat with me about the weather, seek out my advice when travelling or simply read the blog. Please feel free to read more information about Valley Weather HERE.

Winter storm to welcome in the New Year for Montreal

Freezing Rain Warning: Montreal, Sherbrooke, Cornwall, Ottawa

Winter Storm Warning: Quebec City

Winter Weather Advisory: Northern New York & Vermont

The calm before the storm: A beautiful morning along the shores of the St. Lawrence River at Pointe-du-Moulin on Ile Perrot. (Valley Weather Photo)

The storm track has become a little more clear this morning, allowing Environment Canada to post a freezing rain warning for Montreal, Cornwall and the Ottawa Valley. Further north and east of the city, precipitation will fall as snow, with a winter storm warning in effect in those locations, including the Laurentians and Quebec City.

Low pressure will move form the Mississippi Valley into the St. Lawrence Valley tonight, and race eastward into Maine on New Year's Day. Expect snow to begin after 10pm this evening, changing to freezing rain in Montreal by midnight, and eventually rain during the wee hours of Tuesday morning. Rain will be the dominant precipitation type south of Montreal, however 5cm of snow is expected here in Montreal, with 5 to 10cm in Ottawa. Additionally, between 5 and 10mm of freezing rain is forecast on top of the snow for Montreal before warmer air arrives and changes the precipitation over to plain rain.

North of Montreal and into Quebec City, 15 to 25cm of snow is forecast. Strong winds will accompany the storm, gusting over 50km/h, producing blowing snow north and east of metro Montreal. Travel will become very poor late this evening and overnight, with snow covered, icy roads and reduced visibility. Conditions will improve rapidly behind the storm on Tuesday, along with colder air changing any leftover precipitation to light snow before ending. Temperatures will warm to 1C (33F) in Montreal by early Tuesday morning, before dropping rapidly behind the system. The low by Wednesday morning will be a chilly -18C (0F).

Have a safe and Happy New Year!

New Year's Eve snow expected in Montreal and Ottawa

A private contractor puts down a layer of salt in Vaudreuil on Friday evening. A messy mix of 5cm of snow and 12mm of freezing rain, combined with dropping temperatures, have left ice everywhere in metro Montreal. (ValleyWeather Photo)

The weather roller coaster typical of most El Nino winters is well underway in southern Quebec. After a messy mix of rain and freezing rain on Friday in Montreal, the mercury soared up to 6C (43F) during the overnight hours into Saturday. However early Saturday, a potent cold front dropped the temperature down into the minus teens just a quickly. In Montreal, the temperature fell 11 degrees in just a few hours, with the morning low Sunday at -15C (5F). The result is plenty of ice around, especially on secondary roads and parking lots.

High pressure will crest over Ontario and Quebec on Sunday, with just some high cloudiness expected. On Monday, a potent low pressure area and frontal system developing in the US Midwest will approach Montreal, accompanied by a wide swath of precipitation. As with the other storms this month, mild air will return as well. This is a pattern that was established early in December, and shows no real sign of changing soon.

Snow and Freezing Rain
The difference this time is the storm track may be a little to the south of Montreal, allowing for marginally cold air to remain here in the St. Lawrence Valley. We may have enough cold air remaining to keep the precipitation frozen. At this time, expect snow to develop after 8pm Monday night and persist into the New Year, mixing with freezing rain from Montreal south. Eventually all precipitation should change to rain south of Montreal, but remain as snow north and east of the city. Accumulations will range from at least 5cm in Montreal and Ottawa to as much as 15cm in Quebec city and the Laurentians. Regardless of what falls with this system, travel will be impacted across the entire area including southern Quebec, eastern Ontario and northern New England. If you have plans for New Year's Eve, expect snow covered roads and reduced visibility.

The system will move into northern Maine on New Year's Day, with gusty winds, dropping temperatures and flurries forecast for Montreal to start 2019. I will post further updates on the storm as the track becomes clearer later today.

Sharp warming trend to deliver more freezing rain to Montreal

Freezing Rain Warning in effect for Montreal, Ottawa and the St. Lawrence Valley. If possible, limit travel overnight and early Friday morning. Conditions will improve in Montreal and points south and west early in the morning. Icy travel may persist north and east of Montreal through most of Friday.

A brief 24 hour warming trend is on the way for southern Quebec and the St. Lawrence Valley through Friday. We finally received a little snow on Boxing Day, making it look a touch festive. Unfortunately the 1 to 2cm of fluffy snow also created icy travel and the usual amount of accidents on Montreal highways. Thursday morning was cold, with morning lows of -17C (2F) here on L'Ile Perrot. The cold air will moderate significantly over the next day or so as a strong winter storm moves into the central Great Lakes.

 Montreal will once again be on the warm side of the storm, with a messy mix of precipitation expected to change to rain by mid-morning Friday. After a sunny, cold day today, clouds will increase late this evening. The high today in Montreal will be near -9C (16F), with the temperature rising overnight all the way up to and above the 0C mark by early Friday. Expect a warm, windy high of 5C (41F) on Friday. In terms of precipitation, snow will begin after midnight in Montreal and accumulate 2 to 4cm before changing to freezing rain. We can expect a couple of hours of freezing rain, with less than 5mm of ice accretion expected.

The whole mess should change to rain by noon Friday. The warm air will be short-lived, with a strong cold front crossing the region early Saturday morning. Look for rain to change to light snow Saturday, along with plummeting temperatures. The low Saturday night is expected to be near -16C. Another round of snow is possible for New Years Eve, however accumulations should be on the light side.

Wet and windy storm to start the winter season

A strong, unseasonably warm storm will move down the St. Lawrence Valley on Friday. Expect freezing rain in Montreal tonight, changing to heavy rain on Friday. (AccuWeather.com)

Freezing Rain Warning in effect for the St. Lawrence and Ottawa Valley.
Heavy Rain Warning posted for eastern and southern Ontario.

The winter solstice occurs at 5:23pm on Friday afternoon, marking the official start to winter. However, you wont be able to tell by the weather, as a warm, wet and windy storm arrives in southern Quebec and Ontario.

Strong low pressure will move north from the Gulf of Mexico into the eastern Great Lakes later today, and eventually down the St. Lawrence Valley. The storm will be packed with moisture, as well as a surge of very mild air. Precipitation will arrive this evening and overnight in the form of freezing rain across our area. Significant amounts of ice are possible, especially north and east of Montreal. Widespread freezing rain warnings have been issued by Environment Canada. Expect 10 to 20mm of ice accretion before the precipitation changes to rain on Friday. I think Montreal will be on the lower end of the freezing rain amount, but enough is expected to make travel dangerous overnight. On Friday, precipitation will transition to plain rain, as the temperature soars to 6C (43F) in Montreal. The rain will be heavy at times, with up to 25mm expected. Some regions may see as much as 50mm of rain. Isolated flooding is possible, especially in locations that have deeper snowpack. In addition to the heavy precipitation, strong winds are expected to develop on Friday, gusting over 50km/h in Montreal and up to 90km/h in northern New England.

As the storm system moves northeast of Montreal on Saturday, colder air will filter back into southern Quebec. Any precipitation will change back to light snow by Saturday afternoon, with temperatures dropping back below freezing. A dusting to several centimetres of snow are possible depending on the timing of the changeover. Sunday through Christmas Day are expected to be partly cloudy with a few flurries and much colder. The colder weather should persist through next week.

White Christmas for Montreal in serious jeopardy

After the mild weather of last weekend in Montreal, there is not much snow left on the ground for the holiday season.

If snow for the Christmas season is your thing, you may be out of luck. A sharp warming trend is underway across southern Quebec, which will be be briefly interrupted through the middle of the work week, before returning in time for the weekend. A cold front is in the process of crossing the St. Lawrence Valley late Monday, accompanied by scattered snow showers. A dusting of snow to perhaps a centimetre or two locally is possible. Temperatures will drop quickly tonight into the minus teens in Montreal, before recovering up to -7C (19F) on Tuesday. High pressure will crest over the region late Tuesday, with another very cold night on tap. On Wednesday, the warming trend will begin, with temperatures heading towards the freezing point and well above by Friday.

Strengthening low pressure is forecast to approach the St. Lawrence Valley on Friday, with rainy and windy weather expected across the region. The rain could be heavy at times, with up to 25mm possible. Needless to say, the rain, along with high temperatures above 5C (41F), will remove any evidence of snow that we currently have in the city. Once the system moves to our east on Saturday, cooler air will filter into southern Quebec, changing any leftover rain to flurries. Only a dusting in anticipated at this time leading up to and including Christmas Day. Colder temperatures will return for the holiday period, but no major storms are on the horizon at this time.

If you thought the number of green Christmases was on the rise in recent years you would be correct. According to Environment Canada data, Montreal had an 85% chance of a white Christmas between 1965 and 1984. During that period, the average amount of snow on the ground on Christmas Day, was 17cm. Since then, the chance of snow on the ground Christmas day has dropped to 70% in Montreal, with an average of only 8cm on the ground. From 1955 to 1985, Montreal recorded six green Christmas Days. From 1986 through 2017, nine green Christmases occurred. Environment Canada defines a white Christmas, as 2cm of more of snow on the ground as of 7am December 25.

As a child of the 70's, I was accustomed to plenty of snowy, cold weather during the holidays. It was a great time to be a kid growing up in Montreal.

Above normal temperatures forecast for Montreal in lead up to Christmas

The North Carolina National Guard patrolling in the central part of the state. Both Virginia and North Carolina were under a a state of emergency this past weekend, as a winter storm produced heavy snow, ice and rain. Powerful winds along the coast generated flooding and widespread power outages. (North Carolina National Guard)

Montreal can expect a cold week, with well below normal temperatures, and perhaps some very light snow late Tuesday. Accumulations are expected to be minimal, with perhaps 2 or 3cm. As we head towards the end of the work week, a major pattern change is expected, with much milder Pacific air beginning to flow across the country. The arctic air will be confined to extreme northern portions of Quebec. This is in contrast to the below normal temperatures we have been experiencing since early November.

Cold weather will persist in Montreal through Friday before mild Pacific air arrives. A major pattern change will lead to above normal temperatures through the Christmas holiday. However it may be marginally cold enough in Montreal, for some snow to fall in the days just before December 25th.

Above normal temperatures are expected to develop on Friday in southern Quebec, with daytime highs going above freezing and persisting throughout the weekend. A storm system developing in the lower Mississippi Valley will move towards the middle Atlantic states and eventually southern New England. Typically we would expect some snow in Montreal from this type of a setup in mid-December. In this instance, with plenty of mld air around, any snow that does fall will be short-lived, changing to rain by late Friday. We can expect showery, mild weather through the weekend, with daytime highs between 2C and 5C (36 to 41F). The normal high this week in Montreal should be -2C (28F).

Even snowplows were struggling to keep up with the record amounts of precipitation across the southern US this weekend. (NCDOT Photo)

Over the weekend, deep low pressure moving well south of our region, delivered record breaking amounts of snow from Texas to the Carolinas. Some locations in North and South Carolina reported over 50cm of snow. Numerous roads were closed, along with thousands of flight delays and cancelations. A state of emergency was declared in North Carolina and Virginia. Power was out to hundreds of thousands of homes and businesses.

White Christmas?

With very little snow on the ground in southern Quebec and metro Montreal, and plenty of mild air and rain in the forecast, a white Christmas this year may be in jeopardy. There are some indications that slightly cooler air will arrive in the week before Christmas, just cold enough to allow some snow to fall. Time will tell, we will certainly know more in the coming days, but a snowstorm on or around December 23rd in not out of the question.

Colder weather returns to Montreal for the short-term

A massive late season tornado rolls across central Illinois on Sunday. The storm was one of at least two dozen tornadoes to impact the state. The tornadoes, some as strong as EF-3, produced widespread damage and numerous injuries. Miraculously no fatalities occurred. (TWC Photo)

The strong storm that swept across the central portion of the continent this week, is ushering in much colder air into eastern Canada. The cold air will remain in place for the short-term period, with a reenforcing shot of arctic air arriving Friday. Montreal was on the warmer side of the storm this past weekend, with over 25mm of precipitation falling, ranging from wet snow, to freezing rain to plain rain. Icy roads produced accidents on Sunday morning, especially north of the city. The same storm was responsible for heavy snow along the northwest flank of the system, as well as rare December tornadoes in the warm sector across the US Midwest. The thunderstorm activity even nudged northward into southwest Ontario on Sunday afternoon and evening, with vivid lighting illuminating snow covered fields.

An arctic front will produce flurries and squalls late Thursday, ushering in a very cold airmass for Friday and the weekend. The cold will be short-lived, with milder weather expected to return next week. (AccuWeather.com)

The sun is finally expected to make a brief appearance in southern Quebec on Tuesday, along with some clouds and perhaps a snowflake or two. The weather will be blustery and noticeably cooler, with temperatures reaming in the -4C to -6C (21-24F) range. On Wednesday, clouds will begin to increase once again as a clipper type system arrives from western Canada. These are typically moisture starved storms, and this one will be no different. Some light snow is expected Thursday, with perhaps a few centimetres accumulating. A rather potent arctic front will cross the St. Lawrence Valley late Thursday, accompanied by some robust snow flurries. Behind the front, much colder air will arrive for Friday and the upcoming weekend with lows approaching -18C (0F) for many. The good news is high pressure will dominate, with sunshine expected to accompany the cold weather. No major snowfalls are on the horizon at this time, with the storm track remaining well south of Quebec through the middle Atlantic states.

Looking ahead to the rest of December, it is becoming more likely that a major pattern change will be underway. Above normal temperatures are anticipated through the middle portion of the month, along with below normal precipitation. Depending on which computer model you prefer, a white Christmas for Montreal may be in jeopardy, or salvaged at the last minute during the week leading up to December 25th. Time will tell.

Icy travel anticipated for Saturday night in Montreal

Freezing Rain Warning in effect for southern Quebec, eastern Ontario and northern New York.

Despite the fact that most of Canada has already experienced snow and cold, December 1st is actually the start of meteorological winter. Right on cue we have some icy weather in our immediate future. A deepening low pressure area will move across the central Great Lakes over the next 24 hours, bringing with it a surge of mild, moist air. The temperature in Montreal will actually go above normal this weekend, for the first time in several weeks. Unfortunately before that happens, we are looking at a few hours of wet snow and freezing rain.

The cloud cover has been very stubborn to erode this week, as is typical in November. Our best bet for seeing any sunshine will come on Saturday, along with high temperatures of 1C (34F). The aforementioned system arrives tonight, with rapidly increasing clouds, followed by precipitation after midnight. Expect freezing rain to begin in Montreal after midnight, possibly starting as a brief period of snow. The freezing rain should transition to rain by 8am Sunday, with 5mm of ice accretion possible in Montreal. The freezing rain will persist northeast of Montreal and in the Ottawa Valley through mid-morning Sunday. The weather will turn showery on Sunday, with a mild high of 4C (40F).

Cold weather returns
The upcoming week will feature mild weather Monday before a sharp cold front returns arctic air to the region. Temperatures will go form well above freezing to well below by Tuesday, along with flurries. The cold weather will persist into next weekend, with several opportunities for light snow.

Conveyor belt of storms continues for Montreal

Twin storm systems will bring plenty of wet snow and rain to southern Quebec and Ontario during most of the upcoming week. (AccuWeather.com)

The next in a series of early winter storms is expected to impact southern Quebec beginning later this afternoon. The storm system is currently moving from the Midwest US towards Buffalo, New York by late today. The low pressure area was responsible for blizzard conditions across portions of the central plains and Midwest on Sunday. Over a foot of snow (30cm) fell in some locations, with winds gusting to 55mph (90km/h).

Precipitation is forecast to spread across Ontario into Quebec by this afternoon, with rain forecast at the onset. As slightly cooler air wraps into the storm, precipitation should change to wet snow this evening. The snow will be enhanced by the development of a second storm along the US eastern seaboard near New York City. Both lows will meander around New England through Thursday, with varying amounts of snow and rain. Winter storm warnings have been issued south of the border, with special weather statements in Ontario and Quebec. Warnings may be needed later today as the forecast becomes more clear.

As far as snowfall accumulation are concerned, amounts will be highly variable, dependent on elevation. Montreal can expect a very wet 10 to 15cm of snow through late Tuesday, mixing at times with rain. Upper elevations to the southeast of the city, in the Townships and northern New England, may receive more than 30cm. Winds will become rather strong out of the northeast up to 60km/h through Tuesday. The combination of heavy wet snow and gusty winds will create poor travel conditions along with the chance for isolated power outages. Snow is also forecast in Ontario, with 5cm along the St. Lawrence Valley, up to as much as 20cm along the Ottawa Valley and points west towards Georgian Bay.

High pressure will finally clear skies out by late Thursday. Temperatures will remain seasonable through the week, with highs of 0C to plus 2C and overnight lows of  -1C to -3C

Milder weather brings freezing rain threat to Montreal

An icy Thursday morning sunrise in Verdun. Multiple low temperature records were established this past week in Montreal, including the -18C (0F) recorded early Thursday morning. Warmer air is on the way this weekend and into next week, unfortunately so is the ice, rain and wet snow. (Photo Megan Branton)

Freezing Rain Warning in effect for southern Quebec and eastern Ontario, including Ottawa and Montreal.

After the record-breaking arctic chill of this past week, warmer air will be streaming into southern Quebec over the next 24 hours. Unfortunately the warmth will come with clouds and more precipitation. Low pressure is moving from the central US plains into the Great Lakes later today. A warm front will approach Montreal this evening. With plenty of deep, cold air available at the surface, freezing rain is likely to develop across eastern Ontario and the St. Lawrence Valley, beginning late this afternoon, and persisting through midnight. Temperatures will be very slow to warm up, as the cold dense air is very difficult to move out of the valley. Additionally, pavement temperatures will remain cold, even after the air temperature has warmed above freezing.

Montreal can expect 5 to 10mm of ice accretion this evening into the overnight. As much as 15mm may accumulate north of city into Laval and the lower Laurentians. Freezing rain is also expected in the Ottawa Valley and along Highway 401 towards Kingston. Icy weather is also occur southward into northern New York and Vermont. If you have travel plans this evening, anticipate widespread icy road surfaces. Travel conditions will improve early Sunday, as most locations rise above the freezing point. The high Sunday will be plus 3C in Montreal, with showers expected.

Record breaking cold forecast for Montreal through Friday

The drive off L'Ile Perrot took over 40 minutes longer than normal on both Tuesday and Wednesday morning. Snow has fallen during the morning rush hour for the last 4 days in Montreal. The snow created numerous accidents and multi-hour commute times. Bitter cold will now arrive to end the work week. (ValleyWeather Photo)

An arctic cold front will be crossing the St. Lawrence Valley this afternoon, accompanied by gusty snow squalls and biting cold. Wednesday morning was just another in a string of brutal commutes in Montreal. Heavy snow falling between 6 and 9am, created terrible road conditions, with numerous accidents reported. Travel was brought to a standstill in metro Montreal for the second consecutive morning. I gave up and took the bus from Vaudreuil, the first time in over 20 years.

Record cold is forecast to arrive late Wednesday, with an overnight low of -15C (5F) expected for Montreal. The record is -14.4C (6F) set in 1987. Thursday will likely break records as well, for both high and low temperatures. The record low for Thursday is -14.4C set in 1972.

The cold air will be accompanied by another burst of heavy snow and squalls across southern Quebec and Ontario. Winds are forecast to gust up to 60km/h through Thursday, creating dangerous windchill values and producing blowing snow. The forecast high Thursday, under partly cloudy skies, is -7C (19F), 15 degrees below normal for late November. Temperatures will moderate into the weekend, but with the renewed threat of more precipitation, this time in the form of rain or freezing rain. More on that later.

East coast snowstorm brushes Montreal

Piling up the overnight snow along Cote Vertu in Saint Laurent Friday morning. (ValleyWeather)

A potent early season storm moving along the eastern seaboard has produced widespread snow across the St. Lawrence Valley overnight. Snowfall warnings remain in effect for Montreal, but should be dropped later this morning. As of 6am, I had measured 9cm on L'Ile Perrot, with 6cm reported at Trudeau Airport. Around southern Quebec, amounts vary from 20cm along the US border to less than 5cm north of Montreal. South of the border across northern New England, heavier snow has produced amounts between 20 and 30cm. Temperatures remain mild, and winds have been fairly light in Montreal.

Roads on my drive from Vaudreuil to St Laurent were snow covered but manageable. One thing I did notice was the failure for drivers to adapt to the road conditions. Speeds were way to high for the conditions. While there were a rash of minor accidents across southern Quebec, traffic is traditionally lighter on Fridays, so travel was slow but steady. The Ontario Provincial Police were reporting numerous accidents on Highway 401 between Kingston and the Quebec Border. Roads there are snow covered and slippery. South and east or Montreal, the snow is heavier, visibility is poor and roads are snow covered towards Sherbrooke and the Vermont border. Anywhere you travel today will be slow, so caution is advised.

The snow will be fairly light in Montreal for the balance of the day, with another 5cm possible. The high will be near -3C. Overnight tonight, expect more flurries with steady temperatures. Saturday will be mild, with a high near 2C. A potent cold front will arrive late Saturday, accompanied by some light snow and much colder temperatures. Next week will be cold in Montreal, with well below normal temperatures forecast.

First widespread snowstorm on the horizon for Montreal

Many regions outside of Montreal, across Quebec, Ontario and New England, awoke to snow on Tuesday morning. (NHDOT Photo)

Brutal cold will great those heading out in Montreal today, with the 7am temperature at Trudeau Airport of -11C (12F), and a windchill of -20C (-4F). St Agathe north of Montreal was -16C (4F) this morning. The unseasonable cold will prevail through the end of the week, and will be joined by the first widespread snowstorm of the season for southern Quebec.

On Tuesday, many regions outside Montreal recorded the first snow of the season, with 5 to 15cm falling mainly north and west of the city, including Laval. Here on L'Ile Perrot and at Trudeau Airport, it was mainly a rain event, with just a few wet flurries mixed in. A strong cold front crossed the region late Tuesday, ushering in our current polar air mass. The low this morning in Montreal is just 1 degree shy of the record of -11.7C set in 1971. If we fail to reach -6C today, it will be the coldest November 14 since 1905, when the high was only -6.1C (21F). The cold is being accompanied by stiff northwest winds of 30-50km/h in Montreal, producing dangerous windchill values for November.

Montreal can expect the first snowstorm of the season Friday, with 10-15cm likely falling across southern Quebec. (AccuWeather.com)

Friday Snowstorm
High pressure will dominate the weather through Thursday, with cold temperatures and partly cloudy skies. Daytime highs will struggle to reach -5C (23F), with a morning low Thursday of -11C (12F). Overnight Thursday, low pressure is expected to develop off the middle Atlantic coast and move northeast towards southern New England. Precipitation should overspread southern Quebec by Friday morning, with snow expected. The snow will be light but steady on Friday, with early estimates of 10 to 15cm for metro Montreal. I expect this will be all snow with no mixing forecast in Montreal, with temperatures remaining below freezing for the event. Widespread snow is also forecast for eastern Ontario, though with lesser amounts of 5 to 10cm expected. Snow will also fall south and east of Montreal across the Townships and northern New England. Travel will be very poor on Friday.

The low is forecast to deepen and move into Nova Scotia late Friday. Behind the storm, more cold air is forecast in Quebec and Ontario, prevailing into next week, with additional chance for more snow.

Pattern change will result in snow & cold for Montreal

The first major snowfall of the season is forecast for many locations across southern Quebec on Friday. Montreal will have a mix of snow and rain with this system. A more significant storm is expected to develop by next Tuesday, with perhaps the first snowstorm of the season for Montreal.

A sharp pattern change is expected this weekend, with cold air pouring into southern Quebec and Ontario behind the next storm. Two areas of low pressure will affect the region Friday and Saturday, with a rain/snow mix forecast in Montreal. Thursday will be the last mild day for the foreseeable future, with a mix of cloud and sun, and a high of 7C (45F).

On Friday, clouds will thicken as low pressure approaches the region form the Great Lakes. A second low is forecast to move through New England, with a decent fetch of moisture pushing north over southern Quebec. Rain will develop late in the day, mixing with snow Friday night. Most of the St. Lawrence Valley can expect a cold rain from this system, but the upper elevations of the Laurentians and Townships may be looking at accumulating snow by Saturday morning. North of Montreal, the cold air will arrive sooner, with 15 to 20cm of snow possible. Gusty winds are also expected with this storm, 50-70km/h. Behind the low pressure, cold air will pour across the Great Lakes, with the first lake effect snowstorm forecast in Ontario and portions of western New York.

Prepare for winter driving if you have travel plans north or west of Montreal this weekend. Also now is the time to install those winter tires.

High pressure will then nudge into our region on Sunday, with the coldest airmass of the season expected so far. The high on Sunday will be at the freezing point, with overnight lows dropping to -6C (21F). The cold weather is expected to persist next week, with mid-December temperatures forecast.

First snowstorm for Montreal?
Another major storm is expected to develop along the US east coast by late Monday, possibly impacting Quebec with another snowstorm next week. This system may bring Montreal our first significant snowfall of the season. Some models are hinting at more than 15cm of snow in the city. There are still many forecast details to work out, as is common with Nor'Easters.

November - the cloudiest month of the year in Montreal

Deepening low pressure will move along the eastern seaboard into Atlantic Canada over the next 24 hours. Windy, rainy and cool weather can be expected in Montreal. (AccuWeather)

November may only be two days old, but already the month is living up to its reputation as the cloudiest in Montreal. On average the city has about 85 hours of sunshine in November, nearly half of that recorded in October, so it is a drastic drop. December does not have a whole lot more, but the colder weather is often accompanied by sunshine. Much of the dreary weather in November can be attributed to the shorter days as we head towards the winter solstice, but it is also a very stormy month. Winter weather patterns typically begin to win over those of the summer.

Looking back at October, it was a cold month across most of southern Quebec, the coldest since 1993. The average temperature was 6.8C (44.3F), 1.7C below normal. In terms of precipitation, we managed 75mm of rain along, with 3cm of snow of Trudeau Airport. Closer to home, I measured 76.2mm on L'Ile Perrot, with an average temperature also of 6.8C.

November has started off rather stormy, with a frontal boundary draped to our south, tapping into plenty of moisture. Low pressure is riding along the front Friday, while strengthening. Rain has been falling in Montreal since late Thursday night, and it is expected to continue well into Saturday. A gusty northeast wind has kept temperatures in the 3 to 5C range. The raw, dreary conditions will persist into Saturday with little movement in the temperature. The wind will actually increase Saturday as the low deepens and moves into Atlantic Canada. Gusts could reach in excess of 70km/h during the afternoon and evening hours. There is even the chance of some wet snow mixing in with the rain from Montreal west towards the Ottawa Valley on Saturday afternoon. Rainfall amounts will be around 25mm for Montreal, with 50 to 80mm expected across Atlantic Canada.

High pressure will finally move into southern Quebec on Sunday, with some brief sunshine. The temperature will remain below normal, with a high of 5C (41F). Enjoy the one day break from the rain, because yet another storm system arrives early next week with more clouds and precipitation, but milder temperatures.