Spring snowstorm on the way for southern Quebec

You may want to wait just a few more days before removing your winter tires. Montreal has enjoyed a very easy end to winter so far, with only 2.2cm of snow measured at Trudeau Airport during the month of March. That is about to change as a potent cold front and developing east coast storm are forecast to bring steady wet snow to southern Quebec on Thursday.

Despite sunshine and temperatures in the middle teens Tuesday afternoon in Montreal, we are looking at a spring snowstorm starting late Wednesday and persisting into Thursday. Before then, we can expect fair skies and mild temperatures through Wednesday afternoon. A potent cold front is forecast to approach from the west Wednesday afternoon, passing across southern Quebec in the early evening. Rain is forecast to develop across southwestern Quebec along with dropping temperatures throughout the evening. 

A special weather statement has been issued for southern Quebec including Montreal for up to 10cm of snow on Thursday. In northern New York and Vermont, a winter storm watch is now in effect, with 10-25cm possible. (AccuWeather.com Image)

High temperatures on Wednesday will reach a mild 14C (56F) by midday before the arrival of precipitation. Afterwards expect a steady fall to the freezing point by midnight, with rain changing to snow. The front will become stalled across eastern New England, as low pressure develops over Delaware and moves northeast towards Maine. Steady wet snow is expected in the St. Lawrence Valley through the day Thursday, with early estimates of 10-15cm for the region. Across portions of the Townships and Adirondacks of New York, 15-25cm is possible. Travel will be difficult on Thursday. 

The snow will taper off to flurries late Thursday in Montreal, with partly cloudy skies and cold temperatures expected during the overnight period and Friday. Lows will be down to -10C (14F) by Friday morning. The snowy, cold weather will be short-lived, as sunshine and mild temperatures return for the weekend.

The strong cold front expected to sweep Ontario and Quebec is part of the same storm system that hammered parts of southern Alberta and Saskatchewan on Monday with hurricane force winds and heavy snow. A peak wind gust of 159km/h (98 mph) was observed on Nakiska Ridgetop just west of the Kananaskis Village in Alberta. In Saskatchewan, winds reached 120km/h (75 mph) at Swift Current. Parts of the Trans Canada Highway were closed for hours as the wind and heavy snow made for near-zero visibility. The sudden cold was in stark contrast to the record highs that occurred just a few hours earlier on Sunday afternoon.

Unsettled weather week ahead for southern Quebec

Strong west winds of 50 to 80km/h are forecast for Montreal Sunday night into Monday, along with rain changing to snow showers after midnight.

March and April can be volatile months as the seasons battle it out. We have already witnessed very active and highly variable weather in southern Quebec over the last week, and this trend will continue. Strong low pressure is lifting northwest of Montreal Sunday afternoon, accompanied by another round of heavy rain and strong winds. After the 20 to 30mm of rain that fell on the city Friday, we can expect another 10 to 20mm through Sunday evening.

Another round of steady rain is expected Sunday afternoon into the evening hours along with very strong winds. The rain may end as a period of light snow after midnight in Montreal.

The big weather story for the St. Lawrence Valley with the current storm, will be the strong winds that develop late this evening. A cold front will sweep across southern Quebec by midnight, ushering in the strong winds along with much colder temperatures. Winds will increase out of the west and northwest, between 50 and 80km/h. The gusty winds will persist into Monday, along with any leftover rain, changing to snow. The temperature will fall from 10C (50F) Sunday afternoon down to -2C (28F) by Monday morning.

Monday will be very windy and cold, with flurries and high temperatures struggling to reach plus 3 or 4C (37 to 40F). The cold air will be short-lived as temperatures are forecast to rebound by Tuesday, with highs up to 13C (55F) under fair skies.

Spring Snow

As we look ahead, another very strong cold front is forecast to cross the region late Wednesday evening. Low pressure is also expected to develop in southeast New England. The combination of deep Atlantic moisture and colder temperatures may bring us a period of rain changing to snow Wednesday night. There is a possibility of accumulating snow into Thursday morning for parts of southern Quebec and eastern Ontario. The evolution of this system will have to be closely monitored.

A very rare March tornado damaged this home in Middlebury, Vermont on Friday afternoon. The EF-1 rated tornado cut a swath of damage a mile long. On average the state only reports one tornado each year usually during the summer months. An EF-1 tornado is capable of winds up to 177 km/h. (WPTZ Photo)

Severe Weather & Tornadoes

We are not the only region with stormy weather. On Friday, severe thunderstorms across Vermont produced a very rare March tornado. The EF1 rated storm cut a swath of damage 1 mile long near Middlebury in the west-central portion of the state, approximately 200km south of Montreal. Several homes were damaged with at least two injuries reported.

Meanwhile the southern US has been experiencing severe weather, with dozens of tornadoes and flash flooding. Tornadoes on Thursday and Friday were responsible for several fatalities in Alabama. While strong thunderstorms put down over 125mm (5 inches) of rain in Nashville on Saturday. The heavy rain produced widespread flash flooding with at least 4 fatalities reported. Hundreds needed to be rescued from their vehicles and homes as a result of the flooding in Nashville and across Tennessee.

Overnight thunderstorms rattle the Montreal region

The first thunderstorms of the season rumbled across southern Quebec overnight, waking up many in the Montreal region. More isolated storms are possible tonight and Friday, especially south of Montreal. 

Heavy rain warning for Montreal

As written Wednesday afternoon on this very blog, we had some bone-rattling thunderstorms overnight. One particular lightning strike at 3:25am seemed to wake up the entire West Island as well as off-island communities. Social media lit up immediately with theories as to what the loud sound was. It certainly rattled the windows on Ile Perrot, shook the entire house and set off car alarms, but it was not an earthquake or aliens. It was simply a rare March nocturnal thunderstorm.

A warm front lifting across southern Quebec was the culprit. The cold dense air at the surface was being overridden by very warm air higher in the atmosphere. The thunderstorms were not that intense in nature, with very little wind and only 5mm of rainfall on Ile Perrot. What the storms did have was some pretty intense lightning and thunder. The thunder was capped by the warm air aloft and reverberated back to the surface making the rumble seem much louder and longer than usual. With the cold air at the surface and warm air above it, the warm air will act like a ceiling, or insulator to things like sound waves. The sound from the thunder will hit the bottom of the warm layer and bounce back to the ground. This was not your typical warm, humid summer afternoon storm. So if anybody asks you what that was, you definitely have the answer.

We will have a very warm and windy day in Montreal, with winds increasing to 50km/h out of the southwest. We can expect a record high of 21C (70F). A strong spring storm arrives on Friday, with heavy rain and gusty winds. Rainfall warnings are in effect for Montreal and southern Quebec, with up to 40mm possible. North of Montreal freezing rain and even wet snow is forecast. Temperatures will cool off considerably from Thursday, with highs struggling to reach 10C (50F) in Montreal, and dropping to the freezing point into Saturday. The weekend will be even colder, with flurries possible.

You have to love March in Montreal, never boring.

Weather whiplash - from record spring warmth to snow

A warm front may produce some scattered thunderstorms across southern Ontario and Quebec late Thursday and early Friday morning. Record warm air will then surge into Montreal on Thursday.

Montreal managed to sneak in a record high on Tuesday afternoon, reaching 19C (66F), surpassing the previous mark of 18.6C (65F) set in 1979. It was our second record high this month, with a third likely on Thursday in Montreal as temperatures are expected in the upper teens and even low 20s. The record to beat for March 25 is 16.7C (61F) set in 1996. Before then, a warm front will lift across southwestern Quebec Wednesday evening and overnight. We can expect some much need showers and even a few scattered thunderstorms. Thursday will be partly sunny, breezy and very warm, with gusty southwest winds pulling in the warmth from the deep southern US. Enjoy Thursday, as the weather will turn stormy into Friday. 

The first of two strong low pressure systems will move across southern Ontario and Quebec on Friday, accompanied by much cooler temperatures, strong winds and heavy rainfall. There may even be some wet snow in some locations. The second storm on Sunday may bring more snow to the region.

SPRING SNOW

I really thought we would end the month quietly, but it appears it may go out like a lion. We have a pair of storms forecast to impact southwestern Quebec starting Friday, along with much colder temperatures. The first system will deliver a steady rain and strong winds Friday, with as much as 35mm of rainfall. The high will drop down to 9C (48F), with overnight lows Saturday morning near the freezing point. Even with the heavy rainfall, I am not expecting any flooding at this time as it has been a very dry month to date. Only 9.8mm of precipitation has fallen at Trudeau Airport. The rain will taper off to a few showers or perhaps even some flurries by Saturday morning. We will have a brief break Saturday afternoon before the second system arrives.

A second potent storm will move across the Great Lakes and close to Montreal late Sunday into Monday. Computer models have been having a difficult time with the exact track of this storm. The European model is even hinting at a decent snowstorm for parts of our region. At this time, I am leaning towards a warmer solution, with mostly rain for the city. We are expecting another 15-20mm of rain, however that may change depending on the actual storm track.

We can expect some wet snow as well at the onset of the precipitation. Parts of southern Quebec, especially north of Montreal, may see a significant wet snow event. Temperatures will be much colder Sunday, with a high of 4C (39F) expected. Overnight lows will likely drop to near the freezing point.

Conditions should begin to improve late Monday, with temperatures closer to normal.

It looks like a tranquil end to winter in Montreal

A massive winter storm dumped nearly 70cm (27 inches) of snow on Denver, Colorado last weekend. It was the fourth largest storm in that cities history. The snow closed the airport and numerous highways across the state and into neighbouring Wyoming and Nebraska. The storm was expected to being some snow to our region, but will now pass well south of Quebec on Friday. (Colorado State Patrol)

Astronomical spring officially arrives at 5:37AM Saturday morning, along with very mild weather. March has been a tame month all around, and it appears it will remain that way right to the end. I am not saying it is not possible to get a sneaky snowfall or two between now the end of April, it usually happens, but for now no major storms are on the horizon. Dare I say winter may be over! March to date has been extremely dry, with only 7.4mm of rain and 2.2cm of snow. The long-term average is 29.7mm of rain and 36.2cm of snow for the entire month.

Skies are clearing Thursday afternoon, as high pressure moves into southern Quebec. It is expected to remain in place through at least next Wednesday. A strong late winter storm, responsible for several feet of snow in the US Rockies last weekend, is sliding well south of Quebec today and Friday. As mentioned the storm produced record snowfall, and at least two dozen tornadoes Wednesday across portions of the central and southern US. The low will move off the east coast Friday, brushing parts of eastern Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, with snow and blowing snow.

As high pressure arrives in Montreal, we can expect breezy conditions and cold temperatures on Friday. Lows will be around -13C (9F) in the city, with daytime highs around -1C (30F). Gusty northwest winds up to 40km/h will make it feel even colder. The cold weather will be short-lived. Temperatures will warm quickly on Saturday, with a high of 8C (48F). Looking ahead, Sunday through next Tuesday will be mainly sunny and very mild in Montreal, with highs into the double digits reaching 15C (59F). 

SPRING FLOODING?

With very light precipitation this month as mentioned, and the relatively slow thaw we have been experiencing, water levels around southern Quebec are stable at the moment. There is no immediate threat of flooding. However that could change as river ice melts or if we have significant precipitation. So for the time being have your flood plan ready, and remain vigilant. The Quebec Government has an excellent resource page HERE. It is also advised at this time that you remain off any ice, as the spring thaw is well underway across southern Quebec.

A return to colder weather for Montreal

With spring a little over a week away, area waterways are becoming increasingly dangerous. The warm weather this week has allowed the ice to slowly begin the break-up process and become unstable in places. The water is icy cold and  flowing fast. Be vigilant along the shore and stay off the ice.

Our preview to spring is just about over in eastern Canada. The high in Montreal on Wednesday was 9C (49F), just shy of the record high for the date. We have a much better chance of reaching the record today, 11.2C (52F) set back in 2012. The forecast is for a high of 10C (50F), however there is a good chance we will surpass that. As I write, St Anicet, 70 kilometres southwest of Montreal is already at 14C (58F), while Ile Perrot is 7C (45F), so the warm air is close by. Partly cloudy skies are forecast, with just the chance of an isolated sprinkle or shower.

A strong cold front will usher in arctic air and gusty northwest winds Friday. The cold weather will persist this weekend before temperatures rebound next week. (AccuWeather)

Both Toronto and Ottawa are very mild as well, with record warmth expected in both cities today. Ottawa should reach 14C, easily surpassing the record of 10.5C set in 1977, while Toronto is already 15C, expected to reach 19C (66F) today, surpassing their record high of 17.7C set in 2012. The warm air has also broke numerous records across New England, the Ohio Valley and Northeastern US.

As with every spring season since the dawn of time, the warmth won't last. A rather strong cold front will cross the region Friday afternoon, ushering in an arctic airmass. The high on Friday will be reached just after midnight, with temperatures dropping through the day and into the evening hours. The low by Saturday morning will be near -10C (14F). Accompanying the cold front will be scattered showers, changing to flurries, but precipitation should be light. Gusty winds are also expected on Friday and Saturday, in the 30-60km/h range. The wind will make it feel very cold, especially after our current temperatures.

The mild weather this week has very slowly started melting away the deep snow and ice in Montreal. Keep this in mind if you are near any body of water. The ice is already becoming unstable and dangerous.

Milder weather is expected by the middle of next week, but we are also watching a potential storm by the end of the week. Stay tuned, I believe winter is not done just yet.

Windy arctic front to start meteorological Spring in Montreal

A potent warm front delivered over 10cm of wet snow to Montreal on Saturday, February 27. The snow caught many by surprise, creating very poor driving conditions during most of the day. (Valley Weather Photo)

Arctic cold front arrives late Monday.

Poor road conditions are possible Monday afternoon and evening, as 2 to 5cm of snow are possible along the cold front, as well as a flash freeze due to sharply falling temperatures.

Sunday was spectacular as warm sunshine pushed the temperature up to 6C (43F) on Ile Perrot, as we say goodbye to meteorological winter and hello to spring. There was plenty of melting just 24 hours after a rather strong warm front delivered 10cm of snow to Montreal. The snow was heavy and wet and not really expected. The snow should have changed to mostly rain in Montreal almost immediately, but marginally cold air allowed the precipitation to remain as all snow for the duration, with just some light rain mixing in as the front lifted north of the city.

A weak area of low pressure is now forecast to move across southern Quebec Sunday evening, accompanied by light precipitation, mostly in the form of rain. There is even a slight chance of a rumble or two of thunder, especially across eastern Ontario. Gusty winds are also expected to develop this evening, reaching as high as 90km/h southeast of Montreal in the Richelieu Valley.

ARCTIC FRONT

On Monday, a strong arctic boundary will approach southern Quebec, bringing an abrupt end to our early spring weather. Much colder air will pour into the region as the day progresses, with a very mild high of 4C (39F) reached early in the day. As the main arctic boundary crosses the region late Monday afternoon, frigid air will pour in, accompanied by scattered snow showers. Some of the snow showers may be briefly heavy, with blowing snow and reduced visibility. Winds will veer back to the northwest and gust to 60km/h into the overnight hours Monday. Temperatures will plummet down to -5C (23F) by the late afternoon, and -16C (4F) by Tuesday morning. Tuesday will be sunny, but breezy and unseasonably cold, with a high of -8C (18F).

Unsettled but mild weather ahead for Montreal

Crews were busy over the weekend removing some of the mounds of snow in the AMT parking lot in Vaudreuil. Over 100cm of snow has fallen across southern Quebec since early January. With temperatures largely remaining below freezing over the last few weeks, much of the snow remains on the ground. The current snowpack of 42cm at Trudeau Airport is the deepest in over a decade. (Valley Weather Photo)

Could we be looking at the end of winter already? A very mild period of weather is forecast across southern Quebec over the next week and perhaps even longer. Temperatures will be at or slightly above the freezing point as we head towards the start of meteorological spring on March 1st. While it has not been a particularly difficult winter, the last few weeks have still seemed rather snowy and cold in Montreal. We have been lucky this winter as the strongest storms and bitter cold have stayed away form southern Quebec.

That being said, since January 1st, the temperature has risen above the freezing point on only eight days in Montreal, and always between 0 and 3C (32 to 38F). In that same period, close to 108cm of snow has fallen at Trudeau Airport, with even more in other locations around the city. Combine that with the lack of a prolonged thaw, and we have a very deep snowpack around southern Quebec, officially 42cm at Trudeau, but much deeper in many other locations. Let's all hope for a slow, prolonged thaw to avoid any flooding this spring. 

While the weather will be milder, we are still looking at some snowfall over the upcoming week. A series of rather weak clipper type systems is expected to move along the international border from southern Alberta into Atlantic Canada. These moisture starved systems tend to deliver at best 5 to 10cm of snow along their tracks. One such system on Monday brought 3 to 5cm of snow to southern Quebec. Another is expected Wednesday afternoon with a third by the weekend. Light snow is expected late Wednesday, with perhaps a few centimetres accumulation in Montreal, with more north of the city. Temperatures will be above the normal high/low of -2C/-11C over the next week, with the exception of a 24 hour shot of cold air behind Wednesday's clipper. That cold air will result in a daytime high of only -5C (23F) on Thursday along with brisk northwest winds, it will however be sunny. The good news is the temperature should be back above normal on Friday and remain that way into next week. 

Snowy week ahead for Montreal

A stormy weather pattern will prevail across eastern Canada over the next week. Expect two major systems to impact Montreal. The first arrives late Monday, with 10 to 20cm of snow forecast for the region.

Two major storm systems are set to impact Montreal and southern Quebec over the next week. This is all part of the series of winter storms that have been moving around the periphery of a cold dome of arctic air that has descended upon the central portion of the continent. The cold has sent sub-freezing temperatures all the way to the Gulf of Mexico and the Pacific Coast. The fist storm is spreading snow and freezing rain from southern Texas all the way into New England. The second storm is currently delivering heavy snow to the Pacific northwest including southern coastal British Columbia. Victoria reported 14cm of snow on Saturday, while 9cm fell in Vancouver. It is still snowing Sunday morning. Just about very US state has some sort of weather warning, while the Canadian Prairies remain locked into an icy -25C to -40C cold snap for the eighth consecutive day.

Two storms this week for Montreal

We can expect a sunny Sunday, with temperatures rather comfortable, up to -7C (19F). On Monday, look for increasing clouds, followed by snow. The snow will become heavier during the evening hours with 10 to 20cm expected by the time the precipitation ends on Tuesday. The heaviest amounts will fall along the US border, with less than 10cm expected north and west of Montreal. Temperatures will be rather mild during the storm, around -3C (27F) on Tuesday. They will however turn colder again on Wednesday. A second storm is expected to arrive by late Thursday. This winter storm is expected to travel closer to Montreal, with perhaps a mix of freezing rain and snow. Many details still need to be sorted out on type and quantity of precipitation, but I am quite confident that we will be impacted one way or another. Expect several days of snow covered roads and reduced visibility over the next 5 to 7 days.

If you have to drive anywhere during the week ahead, please pay close attention to the lasted forecast details, as well as any weather warnings that may be issued.

Frigid February weather from coast to coast in Canada

A record-breaking cold snap has nearly half of Canada shivering in minus 20 and 30 degree temperatures. The cold will return to Montreal Thursday night and into the upcoming weekend, with lows down to -21C (-6F) in the city and daytime highs in the minus teens.

A significant record-breaking cold snap is underway across most of western Canada. Temperatures have dropped into the minus 20s and 30s for highs and down as cold at the minus 40s for lows over the past week. The arctic air has been in place since last weekend and is now starting to spread east into parts of Ontario and Quebec.

A very stormy and cold weather pattern will persist, with frigid cold for many and a line of snow and freezing rain persisting around the periphery of the cold dome of air. Taking a look at just how cold it has been, Key Lake, Saskatchewan recorded a low temperature of -47.6C (-53.7F) on Wednesday morning, just one of 16 record lows in that province. For reference, the coldest low on record for Montreal, was -37.8C (-36F) set in January1957. In Alberta over 53 record lows have been established since last weekend, with 11 in B.C. and 3 in the Yukon. The cold in many cases has been accompanied by gusty winds and windchill values as low as the -50s. Even coastal B.C. is below freezing, with a major snowstorm expected this weekend for Vancouver and Victoria. Quebec even got in on the cold Wednesday, with windchill readings of -41C at Matagami and -36C at Val d'Or. Widespread extreme cold warnings cover nearly half of Canada.

A major accident on Interstate 35 near Fort Worth,Texas on Thursday, claimed the lives of 5 motorists. The region has been affected by the same frigid air mass affecting most of western and central Canada. (Fort Worth Fire Department Photo via Twitter)

The frigid air has spilled into the US as well, with ice and snow as far south as Texas and freezing temperatures towards the Gulf Coast. The harsh winter weather has produced extremely dangerous driving conditions in many locations. On Thursday morning a multi-vehicle accident involving over 75 trucks and cars resulted in serious injuries and the deaths of at least 5 motorists. More snow and ice is forecast to spread into the Ohio Valley and along the east coast this weekend.

Cold & snowy Montreal

We have a very active weather pattern ahead in Montreal as well. It begins Thursday evening, with bitterly cold temperatures, the low dropping to -21C, with windchill values close to -30C. Friday will be sunny, but cold, remaining in the minus teens. A weak weather system will bring up to 5cm of snow Saturday night tapering to flurries on Sunday. A much stronger storm system is possible early next week, with yet a third storm by Friday. The last system is too far off in the distance for precise details, but expect the weather to be quite challenging over the next two weeks.

Parade of weak storm systems along with seasonably cold air for Montreal

A burst of heavy snow moved across southern Quebec including metro Montreal on Friday morning. The weak weather system put down a quick 5-7cm of snow across the region. Roads became snow covered quickly along with reduced visibility. The result was numerous accidents on Quebec highways. Be prepared for similar weather this week, with three storm systems set to bring snow on Sunday, Tuesday and Friday. (Valley Weather Photo)

Regardless of what the groundhog had to say last week, winter is here to stay in southern Quebec for awhile. While Montreal will escape the worst of the current cold snap and the heaviest now over the next week, the weather will still feel like mid-winter. 

Arctic air is pouring into the central part of Canada Sunday, and surging across the Great Lakes into the northern US. Widespread extreme cold and wind chill warnings are posted from the Rockies into Ontario and south into the bordering US states. Temperatures this morning were close to -40C on the central Prairies, even colder when you factor in the wind.  That frigid cold will remain across western Canada for most of the upcoming week. Meanwhile the main storm track lies along and just to the south of the leading edge of the arctic airmass. Several low pressure systems will travel along that boundary, and produce snow across eastern Ontario and southern Quebec, along with heavy lake effect snow squalls south and east of Lakes Ontario, Erie and Huron. 

In Montreal, we are looking at a fairly mild Sunday, with a chance of 2 to 5cm of light snow this afternoon, ending by midnight. While accumulations will be light, we saw last week that it does not take much snow to create havoc on area roads. A quick hitting 5cm of snow Friday produced numerous major accidents including a 40 vehicle pile-up on Highway 40 east of Repentigny.

Skies will clear out partially on Monday, along with much colder temperatures. On Tuesday, another weak storm system will deliver 5-7cm of snow to the region, followed by more modified arctic air. High temperatures this week will be seasonably chilly with highs of -6 to -8C and lows of -12 to -15C. By the end of the week, a stronger storm may deliver more snow, perhaps in excess of 10cm, followed by much colder air, More details to follow.

Powerful Nor'Easter to impact Montreal

Heavy snow has accumulated nearly 75cm in parts of New Jersey on Monday. The powerful nor'easter will begin to affect southern Quebec early Tuesday. (WCBS) 

Winter Storm Warning: Vaudreuil-Dorion, South Shore, Eastern Townships and Quebec City

Special Weather Statement for Montreal.

 A strong Nor'Easter currently located south of New York City, is forecast to lift slowly towards the north tonight and into eastern Maine on Tuesday. The storm has been responsible for heavy snow across New York and New Jersey today, with as much as 75cm in New Jersey, and 40cm at Central Park. Strong winds up to 70km/h have produced near blizzard conditions in several locations.

The snow is now spreading into southern Vermont moving north towards the Canadian border by dawn on Tuesday. Montreal will remain on the northwest edge of the heaviest snow, with 10-15cm expected through Wednesday morning. However, just south of the city along the south shore, Vaudreuil-Dorion and towards the US border, a winter storm warning has been issued for 15-25cm. 

Strong northeast winds are expected as well, gusting between 50-70km/h. Wind gusts may reach 100km/h in the Quebec City region. The winds will produce blowing snow, especially off-island. The heaviest snow is expected south and east of Montreal, with amounts tapering off quickly as you head towards the Ottawa Valley. Expect very poor travel conditions on Tuesday through the evening hours and into Wednesday morning.

East coast storm to deliver snow to southern Quebec

A strong winter storm will produce heavy snow and strong winds across the eastern seaboard on Monday and Tuesday. The snow will arrive in Montreal in the wee hours Tuesday morning, with 10-15cm forecast at this time.

It was a bitterly cold weekend across southern Quebec. Temperatures struggled to rise into the middle minus teens for daytime highs, while dropping into the minus 20s for overnight lows. Sunshine on Sunday eased the chill, but it was still the coldest morning of the winter for most. Morning lows across metro Montreal Sunday were between -21C and -23C. I recorded -23C (-9F) here on Ile Perrot. It was colder off-island, with Vaudreuil at -24C (-11F), Sherbrooke -29C (-20F) and Mont Tremblant -30C (-22F). Monday morning will not be as cold for most, but it will still drop close to -20C. Conditions will improve on Monday, under fair skies, with daytime highs near -8C (18F).

Our attention then turns to a rather complicated storm system that is delivering heavy snow from the midwestern US towards the east coast late Sunday. On Monday low pressure is expected to redevelop off the Delaware coast and move northeast towards Maine while strengthening. The storm will push a shield of moisture north and west of the track across New England and the Northeastern US on Monday and eventually into southern Quebec early Tuesday. Blizzard conditions are possible from New York and Boston into parts of the Maritimes.

At this time, we will remain on the northwest edge of the storm, with 10 to 15cm of snow likely for Montreal, less northwest of the city and more south towards the US border. In the border locations as well as the Eastern Townships, between 15 and 30cm of snow is possible. Warnings may be needed for a portion of our regions. Accompanying the snow will be gusty northeast winds in the St. Lawrence Valley, between 30-50km/h, producing blowing snow at times. More snow is expected on Wednesday, especially from Quebec City towards the Gaspe region. The good news is that temperatures will warm during the snow, up towards -2C (29F) on Tuesday and Wednesday.

The storm will pull into Atlantic Canada on Wednesday with snow tapering to flurries. Expect a fair day Thursday before another storm system arrive for Friday into next weekend.

Coldest weather of the winter forecast for Montreal

Expect ice fog and mist to form off the St. Lawrence River Friday though Sunday mornings, as the coldest temperatures of the winter thus far move into Montreal. Low temperatures this weekend will be near -20C for Montreal and into the middle -20s in many parts of Quebec and Ontario.

The coldest temperatures so far this winter are anticipated tonight through Sunday morning across southern Quebec, Ontario and New England. Montreal along with parts of eastern Ontario received a surprise 5 to 10cm of snow Tuesday evening in a little less than 6 hours. The snow was part of a weakening low pressure system that was expected to remain well south of the region. Instead the snow moved along the St. Lawrence Valley, with the heaviest falling in the southern suburbs of Montreal as well as off-island locations towards Ontario and New York. Other parts of Montreal including Laval, received less than 5cm. I measured a good 10cm on Ile Perrot.

After a rather mild high of -1.7C (29F) on Wednesday, temperatures have been dropping all day Thursday in Montreal. The high Thursday was -5.4C (22F) reached shortly after midnight. As I write this entry, the mercury is down to -9C (16F). In addition to the colder temperature, winds have been increasing all day and are gusting between 20-40km/h, producing windchill values in the minus teens. Those windchills will continue to drop into the minus 20's through Friday. Overnight lows tonight will be near -18C (0F) and struggle to reach -10C (14F) on Friday. Both Friday and Saturday night will likely be the coldest this winter, down to -20C (-4F) in the city, much colder in the suburbs.

The good news is that winds will ease heading into the weekend. As the arctic air pours into the region tonight, there is a good chance for flurries, with perhaps a centimetre or two locally. Expect cloud cover to persist through Friday, along with blustery, cold conditions and isolated flurries. The sun is expected to return by Saturday.

Temperatures will moderate early next week, with perhaps some flurries by Tuesday as a winter storm moves along the Atlantic coast. As this time the bulk of the snow should remain south of Montreal, but the system will need to be watched.

Extended period of clear cold weather forecast for Montreal

Between 5 and 10cm of fresh snow fell on southern Quebec Thursday, bringing our monthly total in Montreal to a somewhat respectable 48cm. With the cold weather of late, most of what has fallen this month, remains on the ground.

A weak area of low pressure accompanied by an arctic frontal boundary delivered 5 to 10cm of fluffy light snow to southern Quebec over the last 24 hours. The snow caused the usual rash of accidents on area highways. A few more flurries or snow showers are likely Friday before drier air moves into the region. Some of the flurries may be heavy at times today, especially south of Montreal. Keep this in mind if you are out on the road.

Some of the coldest air so far this winter will settle south across the Great Lakes and into southern Quebec, Ontario, New York and New England over the next 48 hours. (AccuWeather.com)

High pressure will begin to move in late today and on Saturday with partly cloudy skies expected, brisk winds and cold temperatures. The high in Montreal will be reached early today, before temperatures begin to drop off into the overnight hours. Lows tonight will be down to -10C (14F) and won't budge at all on Saturday. Skies will be partly cloudy Saturday, it will be breezy and cold with steady or slowly falling temperatures down to -18C (0F) for the low into Sunday morning. Sunday will be fair and cold with daytime highs of -10C (14F).

Briefly looking ahead to next week, it appears high pressure will remain in control of our weather deflecting what would have been a decent snowstorm to our south across Pennsylvania and the middle Atlantic. No active weather is expected before next Friday at the earliest.

Significant winter storm impacting southern Quebec

Heavy wet snow has been falling in Montreal all day, with a good 15cm on the ground and another 5 to 10cm expected by Sunday morning.

Snowfall Warning in effect for Montreal.

Over 42,000 without power in Quebec.

The biggest snowstorm of the season continues to impact southwestern Quebec and eastern Ontario Saturday afternoon. Heavy wet snow has been falling over the Montreal region for the last several hours, with visibility under 1 km at times. Between 12 and 20cm of fresh snow has already fallen, with another 5 to 10cm likely before the precipitation tapers off overnight. Low pressure over southern New England is forecast to lift northeast into New Brunswick over the next 24 hours. The heaviest of the snow should taper off shortly, but light snow will continue well into the evening hours in Montreal.

Conditions were poor across eastern Ontario as well, with heavy snow falling along the 401 corridor from Cornwall to the Quebec border. (OPP East Region)

Roads are in poor shape, with compacted wet snow and reduced visibility. The SQ is advising you to travel only if necessary today, especially on off-island highways. Numerous accidents have been reported. The weight of the snow has brought down several tree branches and power lines, with Hydro-Quebec reporting just over 42,000 Quebec homes and businesses in the dark.

Temperatures have been steady near 0C (32F) all morning, and should remain there into the evening. Winds have been fairly light under 30km/h but are expected to increase later today, up to 50km/h at times. Sunday will be cloudy with flurries and gusty northwest winds. Temperatures will begin to drop in the afternoon, with lows by Monday morning down to -6C (21F).

Significant snowfall for parts of southern Quebec

A snowfall warning has been issued for southern Quebec and Eastern Ontario for 15 to 25cm of wet snow from late Friday evening into Saturday. Rain will mix in at times across the south shore and the Eastern Townships.

Snowfall Warning in effect for Montreal, Ottawa and Cornwall

Winter Storm Warning for Quebec City

The weather has been rather quiet of late, misty and mild, with dreary sky conditions and light winds. That is about to change as a potent upper level low spins into New York state tonight followed by a second area of low pressure expected to develop along the middle Atlantic coast. Both storms will provide enough energy to produce heavy wet snow from Montreal north and west into the Ottawa Valley.

Precipitation will begin late this evening in Montreal and become heavy at times on Saturday. The dividing line between snow and rain will be very close to Montreal. I expect 15cm of snow for Montreal, with up to 25cm north and west of the city and less south and east. Rain should mix in across the Eastern Townships, with the risk of pockets of freezing rain on the South Shore. Snow amounts east of the city will be in the 10-15cm range. Accompanying the snow will be gusty winds of 20-40km/h with gusts to 70km/h possible late Saturday and Sunday, especially east of Montreal.

Temperatures will be very close to the freezing point in Montreal on Saturday, so the snow will be wet and heavy. The weight of the snow combined with gusty winds may lead to some isolated power outages. The snow will be difficult to clear, so keep this in mind when shovelling out.

The snow will taper off to flurries late Saturday and persist into Sunday along with blustery conditions. Colder temperatures are expected to return by late Sunday and remain throughout next week.

A used Christmas tree was snagged by high tension wires in southern Saskatchewan, after hurricane-force winds blew through the region late Wednesday.
(SaskPower Photo)

Prairie Wind Storm

The same upper level low set to impact southern Quebec, produced a wicked windstorm across the southern Prairies. Nine all-time wind records were established in Alberta, including 145km/h (90mph) at Taber. In southern Saskatchewan, speeds reached a record-breaking 143km/h (88mph) at Bratts Lake, with 126km/h (78mph) at Regina. The winds, combined with a few centimetres of fresh snow, produced blizzard conditions late Wednesday. Dozens of highways in southern Saskatchewan were closed, with hundreds of motorists spending the night trapped in their vehicles. The wind also produced widespread power outages and structural damage to many homes and businesses. Some regions still remain in the dark and cold Friday morning.

Active, colder weather returns to southern Quebec by the weekend

This week has been rather quiet, as has most of the winter, but a weak pulse of energy dropped a surprise 5cm or so of snow on southwestern portions of metro Montreal late Monday evening. I measured just over 5cm on Ile Perrot (above) Tuesday morning. More snow is expected this weekend, with much colder temperatures returning early next week. (ValleyWeather Photo)

The weather remains rather quiet and dismal across southern Quebec on Wednesday, with just a couple of weak systems impacting the region. The result has been plenty of cloud cover, some light precipitation at times in the form of drizzle or flurries, and little range in temperature. Temperatures remain well above normal for January, 1C for highs and -3C for lows. This trend will persist for a couple of more days, with changes arriving by the weekend.

An upper level low will move into the Great Lakes on Friday, pushing a frontal boundary towards southern Quebec. Precipitation is forecast to ramp up late Friday and persist into Saturday. A second area of low pressure is forecast to develop along the eastern seaboard, and move northeast towards Maine by Sunday. The combination of these weather systems will deliver precipitation across the region. 

At this time, it may be marginally cold enough for wet snow in many parts of southern Quebec and eastern Ontario on Saturday. Precipitation will likely start as a rain/snow mix before changing over to snow in the afternoon and persisting into Saturday evening. It is early to predict amounts, but this looks like a 5 to 15cm snowfall for most, with the lower amounts in and around metro Montreal.

Much colder air is expected by Sunday, with a return to more normal temperatures next week. Daytime highs will drop into the -7C range with overnight lows in the minus teens. It has been such a mild winter to date, that this will feel downright frigid, especially with gusty northwest winds behind the weekend storm system.

I will post more precise details as the event draws closer, but plan on messy road conditions this weekend.

Long stretch of quiet weather ahead for southern Quebec

Crews plow away the 12.4cm of snow in Notre-Dame-de-L'Ile Perrot last Saturday. The relatively warm winter to date has meant very little snow across the Montreal region. Only 29cm fell in December, with 65cm for the entire season to date. (ValleyWeather Photo)

Strong high pressure over our region is being blocked from any eastward movement by an upper level low northeast of Atlantic Canada. This is forcing all the weather systems to slow to a crawl, and pushing any storms well south of our region across the southern US. So what you see is what you get for at least another week. Skies will be partly sunny all weekend, with seasonably mild temperatures. Highs will be between -1C and -5C, with lows between -6C and -10C. There may be a few scattered flurries around early next week, but no significant precipitation is in our future.

The snow drought continues in January. We managed 12.4cm last Friday and Saturday, but only a trace since, with no snow expected for the week ahead. Believe it or not, last weekends storm was the biggest snowfall this season, which is not saying much.

Before the winter of 20/21 started, it really looked like we were going to have a typical La Nina winter. La Nina, the cooling of ocean water in the equatorial region of the Pacific, usually means a mild but snowy winter for most of eastern Canada, with very cold conditions across the west.  Instead, the majority of the country has been very mild, with only sporadic snowfall.

Here in southern Quebec, we just completed one of the warmest December's in recent memory. The average temperature in Montreal was -2.1C (28.2F), 3.3 degrees above normal. Other parts of the province were even warmer, between 3.5C and 5.5C above the long-term average. In addition to the warm weather, we only managed a paltry 29cm of snow in Montreal in December. The normal is 49cm. The green Christmas in Montreal was our 5th in the last 7 years. Between 40 and 110mm of rain fell over Christmas Eve and Christmas Day across most of southern and eastern Quebec, with flooding observed in many parts of the province.

Snowfall Warning issued for Montreal

 A snowfall warning is now in effect for metro Montreal and all of southern Quebec. Snow will arrive late this evening and taper off to flurries by noon Saturday. Expect close to 15cm in Montreal. The snow may mix with sleet or freezing rain near the US border. Conditions will improve late in the day Saturday. Travel with extreme caution tonight and Saturday as roads will be snow covered and visibility greatly reduced.

Happy New Year!

We are entering the last half hour of what has certainly been a challenging year. I wish everyone a happy and healthy 2021. Thank you so much for reading as I enter my 42nd year of weather observations in the St. Lawrence Valley.

As we head into the last 30 minutes of 2020, the weather in Montreal is clear, winds are light and the temperature is -7C (19F). I am crunching the numbers from 2020, a wild weather year to say the least, and I hope to have a blog post on the past year ready this weekend.

Be well everyone...SB

Winter storm to impact southern Quebec to start 2021

Snow from Wednesday's system covers a plowed field in Notre-Dame-de-L'Ile-Perrot on New Year's Eve. The day featured partly cloudy skies and mild temperatures, perfect for any outdoor activity. (ValleyWeather Photo)

Better late than never I guess, as the first significant winter storm of the season is set to impact southern Quebec this weekend. Up until now, the majority of the storms have either missed us outright, or delivered Montreal a messy mix of rain, with little snow. Anything over 11cm will result in the biggest snowfall, since last February.

Skies are clear on this New Year's Eve and winds have become light this evening. As a result, temperatures have dropped quicker than expected, Montreal is currently -4C (25F). The overnight low will be around -8C (17F). On New Year's Day, expect increasing clouds as low pressure and a strong warm front lift northeast from the midwestern US. High temperatures will be mild, up to -2C (29F). Any precipitation should hold off until after dark.

Snow will overspread Ontario during the afternoon hours, arriving in Montreal after 8pm. The snow could be heavy at times overnight into early Saturday morning. There is also a risk of some sleet or freezing rain mixing in, especially south of the St. Lawrence Valley. At this time, a general 10 to 20cm of snow is expected in Montreal. Winds will be gusty out of the northeast from 20-40km/h. 

Travel will be difficult across the region. The storm in question is delivering a swath of snow and freezing rain from Texas to New England. Widespread weather warnings are in effect including winter weather advisories for neigbouring northern New York and Vermont. I expect weather warnings will be issued for a portion of our region on Friday. Skies will clear out on Sunday, but another storm system is forecast for early next week. This storm however may remain south of our forecast region.

More wintry weather for southern Quebec

A rather weak weather system sill managed to bring most of southern Quebec including metro Montreal, 5 to 10cm of snow on Wednesday afternoon. After a quiet start to 2021 Friday, another storm system is set to arrive Saturday with more snow for Quebec and Ontario.

Precipitation has come to an end in Montreal, with temperatures hovering around the freezing point early Thursday morning. It is just cold enough outside for a thin layer of ice on everything, as I found out the hard way leaving the house this morning. The clipper system is now well northeast of Montreal after overperforming a touch. Trudeau Airport measured 9.2cm of snow on Wednesday along with 3.2mm of a rain/freezing rain mix. Temperatures remained below freezing until late in the evening, allowing for the extra snowfall. The very light holiday/pandemic traffic allowed for a rather easy time on area highways despite the snow.

The last day of 2020 will be partly to mostly cloudy in Montreal, along with a breezy west wind of 30 to 50km/h and temperatures steady around 1C (34F). Skies will remain partly cloudy tonight, with temperatures dropping steadily through the freezing point around midnight to morning lows of -8C (18F).

New Year's Day will be the calm before the next storm system, with increasing clouds and mild highs near -2C (29F). The next system arrives Friday night from the southern US. This storm will be tricky to forecast, as most have been this fall/winter. Expect another mix of precipitation, but perhaps with more snow than rain for Montreal. I'm still ironing out the details, but precipitation won't likely begin until after 11pm New Year's Day. I will post an update later today, but at this time, Saturday looks rather messy, with perhaps more than 10cm of snow. Temperatures will remain mild however, with no frigid air in sight.

Clipper delivers some snow to Montreal to end 2020

Only 18.4cm of snow has fallen in Montreal in December, well below the normal amount of 48.9cm. We will add a little to that total later today but will still fall short. It has been a very tame winter so far.

 A relatively weak weather system, an Alberta Clipper, will cross the Great Lakes and move just north of Montreal late tonight. Accompanying the system will be an area of light snow and perhaps some mixed precipitation. The low will move northeast of Montreal on Thursday, leaving behind clearing skies and mild temperatures to end the year.

Clouds have already increased early Wednesday morning across southern Quebec, and the snow is not far behind. Light snow is moving northeast across Ontario. The snow should arrive in Montreal this afternoon. Less than 5cm is expected in Montreal, with 10-20cm as you move north towards St Jerome and the Laurentians. A snowfall warning is in effect for those regions, if your commute takes you in that direction.

For Montreal, the snow will mix with ice pellets or freezing rain tonight, as temperatures warm to 1C (34F). Precipitation will taper off to a few showers or flurries early Thursday. Temperatures have cooled from out Christmas Day record high of 13.3C (56F), down to more seasonable levels over the last 24 hours. But no real arctic air is in our future, as our mild fall and winter continues.

Another storm system is set to bring us more snow late New Year's Day into the first weekend of 2021. I will post more info on the potential storm later today and on New Year's Eve.

Wet, windy and warm Christmas for Montreal

Wednesday evening was just perfect outdoors in Montreal. Fresh snow on the ground and comfortable temperatures made it a beautiful night. Such is not the case Christmas Eve, as mild weather and heavy rain have melted away most of the snow cover leaving a soggy, muddy landscape. (ValleyWeather Photo)

Heavy rainfall warning in effect for southern Quebec.

 A deep trough of low pressure is slowly moving across the central portion of the continent, spreading a wide variety of weather along its path. A strong cold front, the leading edge of arctic air, is currently passing through the Toronto region. The front will change rain to snow as it crawls east. Behind the front, heavy snow is forecast across the snowbelt regions of the Great Lakes, including Ontario and New York.

Late Christmas Eve, low pressure is forecast to develop along the front and move north into eastern Ontario. Montreal is clearly on the warm side of the system, as we sit at 8C (47F) Thursday afternoon. The temperature will continue to rise into Christmas morning, with a record breaking high of 13C (55F) forecast for Friday. The record for the warmest Christmas in Montreal is 11.7C (53F) set all the way back in 1932. Accompanying the warm air is a swath of heavy rain. Between 30-50mm (1-2 inches) of rain is forecast for eastern Ontario and southern Quebec. Further west, the rain will change to snow Christmas Eve, with 10-15cm forecast in southern Ontario. Winds will be strong across the region, gusting between 40-60 km/h.

This storm is producing dangerous weather in many locations. Blizzard conditions occurred across southern Manitoba and northwest Ontario. In New England and New York, many of the same regions that received 100cm of snow just last week, will be receiving 50mm of rain through Friday. Widespread flood watches have been issued, with moderate to major flooding anticipated from the southern tier of New York into southern Vermont. Further south, severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible across the Carolinas and middle Atlantic region.

Another Green Christmas for Montreal

In Montreal, we managed 11cm of snow this week from three separate weak storm systems. Up until Thursday morning, we had our white Christmas on the ground. That is not the case any longer, as the mild weather and southeast winds have managed to melt most of the snow. The rest will disappear overnight.

Colder weather will return Friday afternoon, as the aforementioned cold front arrives in southern Quebec. Any leftover rain will taper to a few flurries, along with strong gusty west winds and dropping temperatures all the way to -10C (14F) by Saturday morning. Any wet surfaces will freeze, so use caution if out and about Christmas night.

Christmas storm to bring rain and wind to southern Quebec

Woodland Avenue in Verdun looking a little festive in the snow this past Sunday. The thin layer of snow in Montreal will melt away on Thursday as temperatures soar to 10C (50F). (ValleyWeather Photo)

Winter is here, officially arriving on Monday morning at 5:02. The good news is that the days will now slowly get longer. To celebrate winters arrival, we have a little light snow falling early Tuesday morning, but it remains very mild, near the freezing point in Montreal. December has certainly fooled many forecasters, while I personally expected mild weather, I also expected plenty of snow to go along with it. It just has not developed that way. The majority of systems have delivered rainy, mild weather or missed us completely to the south or west. So as we head towards Christmas, we have less than a 1cm of snow on the ground in Montreal, with only 10.8cm falling for the entire month of December. Toronto has actually had more snow this month.

Another warm storm is upon us, with heavy rain and strong winds expected beginning Thursday afternoon. An elongated arctic front will push east across Ontario on Thursday, with the front becoming the focus for deep Gulf of Mexico moisture. Heavy rain is forecast Thursday afternoon into Friday morning, with as much as 40mm possible. Low pressure is forecast to develop along the front and move north into eastern Ontario enhancing the rainfall. The low will also allow a surge of mild air in advance of the system, with high temperatures possibly above 10C (50F) in southern Quebec from Thursday into Christmas Day. Accompanying the rain will be very strong gusty southeast winds. Winds may approach 80km/h in some portions of our forecast region. Minor flooding is also possible, especially in any regions that do have snowpack.

Cold air will surge in behind the Christmas Day storm across southern Quebec, changing the rain to snow. Only minor snow accumulations are expected in Montreal. (AccuWeather.com)

As the front pulls across southern Quebec on Friday, very cold air will rush in behind it. Any leftover precipitation will changeover to a period of snow or flurries on strong northwest winds. The rain will change to snow from west to east across Ontario then Quebec. Temperatures will tumble from well-above the freezing point to -10C (14F) by Saturday morning. Any standing water will freeze over, so keep this in mind if you venture out on Friday.

There are still many details to fine tune over the next 48 hours, but I don't see this anything other than a very mild forecast for Montreal. Now quite normal for Montreal, this will be our third consecutive very green holiday season.

Epic snowfall across southern New York & New England

An incredible record-setting 100cm (40 inches) of snow has fallen in Binghamton, New York in the last 24 hours. (Syracuse.com)

The massive Nor'Easter that dumped record amounts of snow from Pennsylvania to New England is slowly moving towards Nova Scotia on Thursday afternoon. The storm put down a general 30-60cm (12-24 inches) of snow from the central Appalachians into New England. The snow was accompanied by 50 to 90km/h winds.

The storm was epic in a swath from northeast Pennsylvania into southern Vermont, where between 75-100cm of snow fell in less than 24 hours. This included the city of Binghamton, New York along the southern tier of the state, where the largest snowfall in recorded history occurred. They measured over 100cm (40 inches) through Thursday morning and it is still snowing. Numerous roads are closed and the region is completely shut down. A state of emergency has been declared in many communities across southern New York. Closer to metro New York City, 15-25cm of snow fell. The storm will arrive along coastal sections of Nova Scotia and New Brunswick later today, with 15-25cm forecast.

A spectacular NOAA satellite image of the Nor'Easter, with an eye no less, south of Long Island, New York on Thursday morning. Montreal remained on the northern edge of the epic storm, with just clouds and gusty northeast winds. (NOAA).

In Montreal, overcast skies and gusty northeast winds were all we felt from the historic snowstorm. 

As a reference point for just how big this storm was, Montreal has only recorded 27cm of snow since November 1. Last winter, October 2019 to May 2020, we measured 204.6cm (82 inches) of snow at Trudeau Airport. That was for an entire season! Binghamton had half our seasonal snowfall in 24 hours. Many northeast cities have measured more snow since late Wednesday afternoon than they did all last winter.

Massive snowstorm to miss Montreal...again

The National Weather Service in Albany produced this map of expected snowfall from the massive snowstorm forecast today and Thursday. Amounts taper off quickly as you head north towards the Ontario/Quebec border. Only a few flurries are forecast for the St. Lawrence Valley.

In a scenario all too common this year, another snowstorm is missing southern Quebec, but not by much. A massive Nor'Easter is currently strengthening off the Carolina coast, poised to dump 30-60cm (1-2 feet) of wind-driven snow from Virginia to Nova Scotia. Snow has already started falling across the Appalachians and into Pennsylvania Wednesday afternoon. The snow will move across New England overnight and Thursday. Cities such as New York and Boston are forecasting more than 25cm. Winds are expected to howl across the region, gusting as high as 90km/h. Further south into New Jersey and Delaware heavy rain and freezing rain is forecast. Road closures are already occurring, with travel expected to be nearly impossible overnight tonight across the Northeast and southern New England.

The storm will move into Atlantic Canada by late Thursday and Friday. In Montreal, arctic high pressure, responsible for the coldest air so far this season, is shoving the storm south and east of Quebec. Montreal will remain on the extreme northern edge of the system, with clouds and gusty northeast winds up to 40km/h being the only impact. South of Montreal and into the Eastern Township, a few flurries are possible, with perhaps a couple of centimetres accumulation.

Montreal has basically been on the outside looking in for every storm this month. We have recorded only 4.6cm of snowfall at Trudeau Airport through December 16. The normal for the month is 48.9cm. At present we are looking at our third consecutive Christmas break, with little to no snow on the ground. Not good for any outdoor winter sports enthusiast.

Cold temperatures will prevail through the end of the week in southern Quebec. The low Wednesday morning in Montreal was -18C (0F). So far we have only managed a high of -14C (7F) under veiled sunshine. As the the pressure gradient tightens between the storm to our south and the high pressure over the region, northeast winds will increase. The gusty winds will create very cold windchills tonight and Thursday, in the -20C to -30C range. Bundle up!

Looking ahead, milder air is expected to return this weekend, along with a slight chance for some flurries or light snow. There are several opportunities for light snow next week, but nothing major at this time.

Messy weekend storm to impact Montreal

As we witnessed Wednesday morning, it does not take a huge amount of snow to create dangerous driving conditions. A burst of snow during the morning commute lead to dozens of accidents in Montreal. (ValleyWeather Photo)

Winter is desperately trying to establish a foothold in southern Quebec. But with no real cold air in place, it has been difficult at best. The little snow that has fallen to date, including the 4 to 5cm of snow that fell on Wednesday in Montreal, melts away very quickly. Even milder air is expected on Friday, as high temperatures in southern Quebec climb to 5C (41F). Skies will tend mostly cloudy, with just  few sprinkles or flurries possible.

Marginally colder air is expected in the St. Lawrence Valley Friday night and early Saturday, with lows down to -1C (30F). On Saturday, strengthening low pressure will move towards southern Ontario and eventually down the St. Lawrence Valley. As with every storm this fall, warm air will arrive with the storm. Precipitation is expected to overspread eastern Ontario in the morning hours, spreading into southern Quebec and metro Montreal during the afternoon. At this time, it appears enough cold air will remain at the surface in to allow for a messy mix of snow, freezing rain and eventually rain from Montreal south. 

A good 10 to 20mm of precipitation if expected with this system, mostly falling as rain in Montreal, but there may be a few hours of freezing rain at the onset, especially between Montreal and Ottawa. Further north, mainly snow will fall, with 10 to 20cm possible. The amount and type of precipitation will need to be fine tuned as the event draws closer, and the path of the low becomes a little more precise. For now, plan on slick travel Saturday into the overnight hours across the entire region. By Sunday, enough warm air should change most of the precipitation to rain in Montreal and points south.

I am also watching the potential for a much larger winter storm for the middle portion of next week. There remain many details to iron out at this time.

Southwestern Quebec on edge of weekend snowstorm

Montreal will remain on the western edge of a weekend coastal storm. At this time only a few flurries are expected in the city, with heavy snow falling from the Townships eastward towards the Maine border. (AccuWeather.com)

It is yet another dreary morning in Montreal, with a light cold rain falling. The day will shape up cloudy, with scattered showers and flurries and temperatures fairly steady near 2 or 3C. The big weather news is the potential for a snowstorm this weekend. But before you get too angry or excited, depending which side of the snow team you root for, it appears the storm will miss Montreal. As was the case earlier this week, when a snowstorm impacted the lower Great Lakes and most of Ontario, sparing southwestern Quebec.

This weekends storm is forecast to move off the Carolina coast late on Friday and strengthen rapidly as it moves along the eastern seaboard and into Maine or Nova Scotia. Precipitation is forecast to spread north into New England on Saturday reaching southern Quebec by late in the day. 

At this time, it appears Montreal will remain on the extreme western edge of this compact storm. At best clouds and gusty northeast winds are expected, at the worst perhaps a few flurries. The forecast track of this storm has been all over the map, and any deviation in the final path will determine exactly where the snow falls. I expect the heaviest snow will fall from the Beauce northeast towards the Lower North Shore and the Gaspe regions. In this area 20-30cm is possible along with strong winds and blowing snow. There is also a risk of freezing rain in the Gaspe. Quebec City and Sherbrooke may receive up to 10cm of fresh snow. Portions of interior New England from Vermont south and east towards the coast are looking at 10 to 30cm of snow. If any of you still actually travel, be aware that driving will be difficult across those regions.

The storm will pull into Atlantic Canada on Sunday, with any snow tapering off to flurries. Colder air will move in behind the system on gusty north winds. Temperatures will be chilly this weekend, remining close to the freezing point for highs and down to -5C for overnight lows in Montreal.

The cool weather remains with us to start next week, with a slight warming trend towards the end of the week. No other storms are on the horizon at this time.