Quick shot of arctic air followed by Spring!

Snow falling on Ile Perrot, Sunday, February 18. Could this have been the last significant snowfall for the Montreal region? Only 15cm has fallen this month, well-below normal. Indications are we are in for a very warm March once we clear a 24-36 hour cold snap this weekend. (Valley Weather Photo)

Montreal has definitely had a warm winter, with very few major snow events. Could this be it? We will see what surprises mother nature has for us in March and April, but current trends are indicating a warm spring.

A strong arctic boundary will slip across eastern Ontario and southern Quebec late in the day Friday, setting the stage for one of the coldest nights of the winter. Before then we can expect a mild day in Montreal, with a warm high of 5C (41F) forecast, along with a few showers.

The cold front arrives early this afternoon across the Ottawa Valley and by the supper hour in Montreal. Temperatures will fall rapidly behind the front, from above freezing to well below in a matter of an hour or two. A flash freeze is possible, especially north of Montreal, where weather warnings are in effect.

Along the front we can expect a few showers, quickly changing to flurries and ending by midnight. Little accumulation is expected for Montreal. As mentioned, temperatures will plummet, dropping down to -16C (3F) in Montreal by morning, with lows close to -20C (-4F) north and west of the city including Ottawa. Gusty northwest winds of 30-50km/h tonight and up to 40km/h Saturday will result in windchill values in the low minus teens and 20s. Bundle up if you have outdoor plans as the sudden cold will be a shock for many in what has been a warm winter.

Saturday will be partly cloudy and cold, with highs struggling to reach -7C (19F). One more cold night Saturday as lows drop down to -15C (5F), before we see a major warming trend starting Sunday. Highs will rise to 0C (32F) Sunday, and well-above freezing next week, possibly up to 10C (50F) by Wednesday. The weather looks unsettled with some snow to start the week Monday, nothing significant at this time, followed by rain and warm temperatures midweek.

Briefly looking ahead into March, there are strong indications that temperatures will continue to be well-above normal across southern Quebec, with limited chances for any significant snowfall. Time will tell, stay tuned.

Much warmer weather expected for Montreal

Sunday's snowfall over-performed a touch across metro Montreal, delivering 7-10cm of snow to the region. That brought our monthly snowfall to 15.2cm at Trudeau Airport, well-below normal for February.

Tuesday morning should have been the coldest one yet this winter in Montreal, but a thin lawyer of clouds stopped the temperature from falling last evening under ideal conditions. Winds were calm and we had a fresh blanket, albeit a thin one, of snow on the ground.

Still the morning low was -13C (9F), shy of the -17C (2F) we had on January 20. Tuesday will be a chilly day and so will next weekend, but other than that, all I am seeing is warm air on the horizon. Could winter be over? It has not been a much of a winter, as El Nino has dominated the weather patterns across the globe and especially here in North America. We managed a little snow this week, and currently sit at 15.2cm at Trudeau Airport, well below the normal of 41cm.

Looking ahead, high pressure will move to our south and east setting up a return flow of mild air. So after our cold morning Tuesday, we can expect a significant rebound in temperatures to end the week. So much so that rain is expected Thursday into Friday. The highs will be 2C (36F) on Wednesday, but up to 6C (43F), Thursday and Friday.

A strong arctic cold front will arrive by late Friday, with some snow squall activity, strong winds and rapidly dropping temperatures, down into the minus teens by Saturday morning here in Montreal. The cold air will remain through the weekend, before another surge of warm air next week, that will see highs well above freezing to end February and into the first few days of March and potentially beyond.

Once again, I am not seeing any snowstorms in our future.

ON THE RADIO

One final note, I am finally on the radio talking about the weather, a dream I have had since my Dawson College days at CFKS Radio Selby in the late 1980s. I am part of The Suburban Radio Hour aired on CJAD 800 AM, Sunday evenings from 7-8pm. My segment is pre-recorded for now, so I will be dealing with historical facts and a general look forward at the weather across southern Quebec and beyond. Thank you as always for reading and listening! 

Snow squalls possible Sunday evening - warmer week ahead

Roads were snow covered early Sunday morning across the Montreal region, as steady snow fell along a warm front. A quick 5-10cm fell across much of southern Quebec. (Valley Weather Photo)

A strong cold front will produce snow squalls this afternoon and evening across eastern Ontario and southern Quebec.

A warm front has lifted north of the Montreal region Sunday afternoon, accompanied by strong southwest winds blowing off Lake Ontario funneling moisture down the St. Lawrence Valley. Earlier Sunday, steady snow accumulated a quick 5-10cm across southwestern Quebec, with 7cm falling here on Ile Perrot. Montreal is now in the mild sector, with gusty southwest winds up to 50km/h, producing areas of blowing and drifting snow.

Temperatures have warmed from a cold morning low of  -15C (5F) to our current reading, as I write, of 0C (32F). Temperatures will take a tumble later this evening as a potent arctic boundary crosses the region. Along and ahead of that front we can expect some decent snow squall activity, with brief heavy bursts of snow and strong winds reducing visibility. The squalls will impact the Montreal region during the early evening hours.

A snow squall watch is currently in effect for a large portion of western Quebec and eastern Ontario, including the Ottawa Valley, and will likely be extended into the Montreal region later this afternoon. 

The steady snow this morning was the result of moisture being driven off  the wide open waters of Lake Ontario. Further southwest along the Highway 401 corridor, heavy snow has been falling making for poor travel between Trenton and Cornwall.

After the front clears the region this evening, temperatures will fall quickly to a low of -12C (10F) in Montreal and rising to -5C (23F) on Monday under partly cloudy skies. Winds will be quite gusty this evening, out of the northwest 30-50km/h, diminishing on Monday afternoon.

A warming trend starts on Tuesday, with temperatures expected to rise back above freezing.

Finally some February snow for southwestern Quebec

It took until February 13 for the first snow of the month to fall across many parts of southwestern Quebec. That has not happened since the El Nino winter of 1998, when it snowed for the first time that year on February 17. Only 1.4cm of snow has fallen so far this month in Montreal, the long-term average for the city is 41.2cm. (Valley Weather)

Snow is in the forecast for Thursday night, and it will likely be the first measurable snowfall for many across southwestern Quebec this month. On Tuesday night, Montreal's Trudeau Airport measured 1.4cm of snow during a fast moving squall, otherwise most of the region has had no snow since late January. The last time we had so little measurable snow to start a February was also during an El Nino year in 1998, when it took until the 17th for our first snowfall.

Clouds are thickening up late Thursday afternoon in advance of a fast moving Alberta Clipper moving across the Great Lakes and southern Ontario and into upstate New York. A swath of heavy snow is falling this afternoon along the Highway 401 corridor, and moving east. Toronto has been reporting visibility below 1km in heavy snow for the last three hours. Snow will spread across eastern Ontario late this afternoon.

The snow should move into the metro Montreal region this evening and taper off overnight. Most regions will see a quick 5cm of snow, but closer to 10cm is possible from Vaudreuil-Dorion southwest towards the Ontario and New York State borders. Winds should remain less than 30km/h during the snowfall. Temperatures will be below freezing for a change, dropping to -7C (19F) tonight  and rising to a high of -3 (27F) Friday. Clouds will linger on Friday, along with a few flurries.

Widespread winter weather advisories are in effect through southern and eastern Ontario and across the border into upstate New York and Vermont. 

Expect slow travel tonight, with low visibility and snow covered roads, something we are not use to this winter. The snow should be over for the morning commute in Montreal.

A taste of spring weather for Montreal - but winter lurks behind

A spectacular sunset off the western tip of the island near Senneville. February has featured plenty of sunshine so far after a dismal January that saw less than 17 hours of sunshine in Montreal for the entire month. (Valley Weather)

After an absolutely dismal January, we have been treated to an early taste of spring here in southern Quebec to begin February. January, along with most of November and December, featured plenty of cloud cover for the shortened days. 

On Wednesday I had an interesting conversation with David Phillips, Senior Climatologist with Environment and Climate Change Canada. We discussed the limited sunshine to start the year, along with the lack of snowfall and the generally somber weather that has prevailed this winter. Phillips estimates that we had no more than 17 hours of sunshine for the entire month. Combine that with the lack of snow cover or any prolonged cold to support outdoor winter sports and other activities, and it made for a long and difficult month for many.

February on the other hand has been the complete opposite so far. Still no snow, but the sunshine has been more-than-welcome. Just eight days in and we have had full sunshine on 5 of the 8 days. As I write Thursday afternoon, the temperature is an unseasonably warm 6C (43F) under mainly sunny skies. We are close to the record high for the date of 6.7C (44F) set back in 1949, but I don't think we will get there today.

The mild weather will persist into the weekend, but with an increase in cloud cover. A few showers are possible late in the day Friday and Saturday afternoon. Temperatures will be very mild, between plus 5 and 7C (41-45F) for highs, remaining above freezing around 3C (38F) for lows through Sunday. A cold front arrives on Sunday, with colder air returning next week.

There has been no snowfall in Montreal so far this February, very unusual for sure. Only a few flurries are possible late Sunday and Monday. We are watching the track of a coastal storm on Tuesday, but at this time, I expect it will remain well south of the Montreal region. Colder temperatures are set to return next week, remaining below freezing through the end of the month.

Widespread damage occurred across the Los Angeles region and southern California after several days of very heavy rain and strong winds. (AccuWeather.com)

While we have been enjoying the sun and mild temperatures, parts of both coasts have been hammered by major storms. Along the US Pacific coast, nearly a years worth of rain fell in just a few days, with over 250mm recorded across the Los Angeles Basin. The heavy rain and strong winds resulted in power outages, mudslides and widespread flash flooding.

Along the east coast, between 60 and 150cm of snow fell across Cape Breton Island and parts of Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island. Many communities are still digging out from drifts that are several metres high.

Tranquil weather for Montreal - massive snowstorm buries parts of Atlantic Canada

The biggest storm in over two decades has dumped up to 100cm of snow since Friday night on parts of Nova Scotia, including Sydney, shown above. That is more snow than Montreal has received all winter. (CBC New Photo)

Strong high pressure anchored over central Quebec will provide our region with a quiet, springlike weather week ahead. More typical of mid March weather, we can expect abundant sunshine, with mild days and chilly overnight lows. Skies should remain clear for the most part, with just a few stray clouds from time to time through Thursday. High temperatures will be between -2C and -5C (23F to 29F), with overnight lows between -10C and -15C (5F to 14F) for most of us. 

Despite the clear weather, keep in mind there may be some icy patches around in the morning. On Sunday, a major multi-vehicle accident closed the southbound ramp off the Mercier Bridge into Chateauguay around 8:30AM. Local ice fog had developed, making the bridge surface slippery resulting in several accidents. 

So far this month we have only had a trace of snow on Montreal, with no major systems on the horizon. The El Nino effect continues to influence the North American weather, keeping the arctic air locked up across the far north and the storm track primarily along the coast from California along the Gulf Coast and then northeast into Atlantic Canada. 

Over the weekend a powerful snowstorm slammed parts of Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island with the heaviest snowfall in two decades. Deep low pressure stalled southeast of Sable Island, pumping copious amounts of moisture across central Nova Scotia and Cape Brenton Island. The snow is still falling Monday morning, after 84cm at Stanfield Airport in Halifax since Friday night. In Sydney, over 80cm has fallen as well. Drifts are metres highs, as winds gusted over 80km/h producing widespread blowing and drifting snow. 

Numerous roads are impassable, schools and businesses are closed Monday. A local state of emergency has been issued for the Cape Breton Regional Municipality. By the time the snow ends later Monday, several locations will exceed 100cm (40 inches).

Mild winter will continue - regardless of what the Groundhog says

The late Fred la Marmotte of Val-d'Espoir in the Gaspe region of Quebec. The new Fred will make his prediction early Friday morning. It appears we are in for an early spring. Time will tell. (CBC)

Groundhogs across North America, including the new Fred la Marmotte in Val-d'Espoir, Quebec, are preparing this Friday morning to deliver the forecast for the balance of our winter. Regardless of their predictions, there are strong indications that the milder than normal winter will persist. 

We are looking at temperatures above freezing once again Friday morning in Montreal, after around 7mm of rain here on Ile Perrot Thursday. As temperatures flirt with the freezing point early Friday morning, there could be some icy spots around. High pressure will try to build into southern Quebec today, but I expect cloud cover to hold in place most of the day. Temperatures will be mild, around 1C (34F).

As skies clear this evening into Saturday, we can expect slightly cooler weather, but still above normal for early February. The high on Saturday, along with some much needed sunshine, will be around -3C (27F). Fair weather will prevail well into the new work week, with mild days and chilly overnight periods. Daytime highs will be around -2C, with overnight lows seasonably cold, around -10C (14F).

This past week, temperatures soared across western Canada, After the mid-January deep freeze, hundreds of record highs were established including an incredible 21.1C (70F) at Maple Creek, Saskatchewan on Tuesday. This was also a new provincial record high for the month of January and part of 4 consecutive days with record highs. The previous provincial record was set on January 7, 2003 in Cypress Hills at 19C (66F). Record highs were shattered across all four western provinces.

January was warmer than normal across the entire province of Quebec. Despite the deep freeze for a few days in the middle of the month, most of Canada was warm as well. (Environment Canada)

Meanwhile the numbers are in for our January here in Montreal. To nobody's surprise the month was warmer than normal, with an average temperature at Trudeau Airport of -5.3C (22.5F), 4.4 degrees above the long-term average of -9.7C (14.5F). Precipitation was also above normal, with 90mm, including 57cm of snow. Most of that fell in two storms during the middle portion of the month. We have yet to drop to -18C (0F) this winter in the city.

What can we expect for February? Well Groundhogs aside, mild weather should persist into the second week of the month, with a flat jet stream and a warm ridge of high pressure across the west. Any storms will be pushed well to the south and east of Montreal. Beyond the middle of February, we are seeing indications of a return to a colder, stormy pattern. Whether that involves snow or not is yet to be determined. Below normal temperatures will return, but keep in mind we are now past the coldest time of the year in Montreal. The days are getting longer and average highs are creeping up.

Another round of freezing rain for Montreal

An icy landscape very early Thursday morning on Ile Perrot. Freezing rain coated everything with up to 10mm of ice. Roads and sidewalks on Ile Perrot and across the region were treacherous in many cases. Walking for nearly impossible. Thankfully the main highways were in decent shape for the morning commute. (Valley Weather Photo)

Freezing rain warnings have been issued once again for eastern Ontario and southern Quebec for overnight into Friday morning. 

Low pressure will move along a frontal boundary south of Montreal across central New York state, delivering another push of moisture and warm air aloft. Cold air will remain once again at the surface here in the St. Lawrence Valley, resulting in another 5-10mm of freezing rain on Friday. Precipitation will begin before the morning commute in Montreal, lasting through the morning hours, before mixing with and changing to snow midday. Temperatures will drop below freezing tonight, down to -5C (25F), rising close to the freezing point on Friday, before slightly colder air arrives in the afternoon. Snowfall amounts will generally be around 5cm for most locations. Snow on top of ice will make for dangerous walking and driving.

We caught a break Thursday afternoon as the temperature nudged above the freezing point to 1.6C (35F) here on Ile Perrot, allowing some of the ice to melt off trees and power lines. While there were only isolated outages on Thursday, the threat will rise Friday in some regions, due to the cumulative weight of the ice from both storms.

Last evening's storm dumped between 5-10mm of freezing rain across the region, leaving streets and sidewalks covered in thick ice. Main roads in Montreal recovered for the morning commute, but it was a different story in the suburbs and rural regions. As a result, many off-island schools were closed for the day.

There were a number of accidents overnight, especially along the Montreal to Brockville, Highway 20/401 corridor. The saving grace was that the precipitation ended before the morning commute Thursday morning, but this will not be the case with the next system.

Freezing rain warning for southern Quebec

Cold northeast winds that have developed Tuesday afternoon in Montreal, are expected to keep temperatures below freezing into Thursday morning. As a result, a freezing rain warning has been posted for up to 5mm of ice accretion before temperatures warm above freezing sometime on Thursday.

Freezing rain warning in effect for southern Quebec for Wednesday night.

A cold front settling south of the St. Lawrence Valley Tuesday afternoon has allowed colder air to seep into the region. Montreal has dropped from 0C (32F) around noon down to -6C (21F) as of 4pm. That front will be the focus of some light snow tonight, with a dusting to as much as 5cm locally across the region. Expect chilly northeast winds to accompany the flurries.

On Wednesday, the frontal boundary will begin to lift back northward as a warm front, with the same cold air and northeast winds remaining in place at the surface here in Montreal. The result will be several hours of freezing rain in both the St. Lawrence and Ottawa Valley. As much as 5mm of freezing rain is possible at this time, falling mainly during the overnight hours into Thursday morning. The Thursday morning commute will be icy across the region, including eastern Ontario, northern New York and Vermont.

The unsettled weather is expected to persist through the upcoming weekend, as several weak areas of low pressure traverse the aforementioned frontal boundary draped across the region. Much milder air has developed across a wide area of North America, but arctic high pressure remains well to our north. We will see a battle of temperatures here in Montreal through the weekend. As a result expect a messy mix of light wintry precipitation at times, ranging from snow and sleet to rain and freezing rain. Often these events can produce more dangerous and changeable road conditions than big storms. 

Parade of storms over - coldest air of the season moves in

Strong southwest winds last Sunday pushed intense snow squalls along the St. Lawrence Valley as far as Ile Perrot and parts of extreme southwestern Quebec. An arctic front added to the squalls as it moved southeast across the region. The result was heavy snow, blowing snow and difficult travel conditions for a few hours during the afternoon. (Valley Weather)

After four low pressure systems in the last 10 days, the parade of storms is over for southern Quebec, at least for the next few days. Tuesday's system moved along the eastern seaboard leaving Montreal on the extreme northwest edge. We managed 4 to 5cm of fluffy snow, enough to make travel slick during the evening commute. 

The big story for the next few days will be the cold. A modified arctic airmass will deliver the coldest air of the season so far to southern Quebec. This morning's low of -14C (7F) was the coldest so far this winter for Montreal, a clear indication of just how mild the 2023-2024 winter has been. The next few days will feature party cloudy skies, perhaps a stray snowflake or two, with lows of -15C (5F) to -18C (0F) and daytime highs of -7C (19F) to -13C (9F). Southwest winds of 30-50km/h in the Montreal region on Tuesday, are producing local blowing snow, along with windchill values around -20C (-4F). To date Montreal's Trudeau Airport has received 110.2cm of snow, nearly half of that over the last 10 days. 

Heavy snow squalls pound Watertown, New York on Wednesday afternoon, January 17. In excess of 50cm was expected, with storm totals approaching 100cm. (webcamtaxi.com)

For the balance of this week, the heavy snow will be confined to the Great Lakes region, with lake effect snow hammering both Buffalo and Watertown, New York, as well as communities along Georgian Bay in Ontario. Some locations are expecting close to 100cm (40 inches) of snow. This is on top of the 50-100cm that feel last weekend. Lake effect snow occurs in narrow bands downwind of the lakes. It develops as cold winds blow across the relatively warm waters, creating convective cells which organize into bands of heavy snow. The snow has been accompanied by strong winds and even thunder and lightning. Last Sunday, some of the squalls moved along Highway 401 as far as extreme southwestern Quebec.

A NOAA satellite image showing the arctic air streaming across the ice free Great Lakes producing heavy lake effect snow in Buffalo and Watertown, NY. The coldest air this winter, along with just a few clouds and flurries were expected for the balance of the week in Montreal.

Much of the country is being chilled by arctic air moving into the central portion of the continent. Over the last week, Edmonton International Airport set a record with 5 consecutive days in the minus 40s, including last Friday mornings low of -45.9C (-50.6F).

The good news is a significant warming trend in on the horizon, with much of the country going above normal once again by the last week of January.

Another stormy day across southern Quebec

Saturday was a messy day on roads across southern Quebec and Ontario due to a mix of freezing rain and wets snow. Sunday will be equally difficult, with numerous snow squalls and strong winds affecting the entire St. Lawrence Valley.

Special Weather Statement for Montreal. Weather Advisory along the St. Lawrence Valley into Ontario.

There is a risk of significant snow squalls on Sunday, with areas of blowing and drifting snow.

Our latest winter storm delivered quite a punch to many parts of our region on Saturday, with stormy conditions persisting into Sunday. Overnight, winds have been gusting over 70km/h in the Montreal region, along with frequent snow showers. Those conditions will prevail most of Sunday, with frequent rounds of heavier snow and lowered visibility in blowing snow.  High temperatures will be reached early in the day around -3C (27F), remaining steady or dropping through the afternoon hours.

Strong low pressure will lift into central Quebec Sunday, while a potent arctic cold front slips across the Great Lakes and into the St. Lawrence Valley. Strong southwest winds of up to 70km/h will drive snow squalls off Lake Ontario and down the St. Lawrence Valley as far as Montreal. A snow squall watch has been posted along Highway 401 from Cornwall to Kingston. If you have travel plans in that direction, expect highly changeable driving conditions, with near-zero visibility at times in heavy snow and blowing snow.

Accumulations today will be around 5cm for Montreal, but as much as 10cm southwest of the city along Highway 20 towards the Ontario border and into Cornwall. Winds should lower this evening but remain gusty up to 50km/h on Monday. The week ahead will be much colder than it has been, remaining well-below freezing, with numerous flurries.

The weekend storm dumped another 16.8cm of snow at Trudeau Airport, I measured less here on Ile Perrot, around 10cm due to a messy mix of sleet, freezing rain and at times just plain rain. The storm caused numerous accidents across the region, along with a handful of power outages. Hydro-Quebec is still reporting 8200 customers without power Sunday morning.

The same storm that brought snow to Montreal, pounded the Atlantic Coast with strong winds and coastal flooding. For the second time this week, major flooding and wind damage occurred along the New Hampshire Seacoast, southeast of Montreal. (Photo Hampton Police)

This storm was far-reaching, with blizzard conditions on the west side of the track, and major coastal flooding and wind damage on the east side. Some notable numbers include wind gusts to 87km/h at Sherbrooke, and 81km/h at Quebec City. Rawdon, north of Montreal, received 40cm of snow. Along the east coast, many coastal communities from Maine to Long Island reported their highest tides on record. Coastal infrastructure, beaches and homes reported major damage and flooding, some for the second time this week.

Finally, significant lake effect snow has been impacting parts of southern Ontario and western New York. Powerful winds and heavy snow has made travel nearly impossible, and forced the cancelation of the NFL playoff game Sunday between the Buffalo Bills and Pittsburgh Steelers in Orchard Park, New York. That game has been rescheduled to Monday afternoon. Up to 100cm (40 inches) of snow is possible in the most persistent bands.

Snowfall warning posted for Montreal

The clean up continues from the last two storms to impact the Montreal region. Another major storm system, the third this week, is on the way for Friday night and Saturday, with 10 to 25cm of snow forecast across a wide region from southern Ontario into Quebec. Very strong winds will produce near-blizzard conditions at times. (Valley Weather Photo)

Snowfall warning in effect for metro Montreal for 15-20cm of snow and blowing snow Friday night.

Expect very difficult travel conditions tonight and Saturday.

Widespread weather warnings are in effect across Quebec and Ontario as we await the arrival of our third winter storm in less than a week. This storm will be very similar to Tuesday nights system, following a similar track and just as strong. 

We can expect an initial surge of moisture around midnight Friday, that will deposit a quick 10cm of snow across the region. The snow will be accompanied by gusty northeast winds, up to 50km/h in the St. Lawrence Valley. Winter storm warnings have been issued across much of eastern Ontario and regions north of Montreal, where up to 30cm of snow is possible.

Heavy snow is forecast for Quebec City, with up to 20cm along with northeast winds up to 80km/h and near blizzard conditions at times.

Across the Eastern Townships, milder air will result in less snow and more rainfall, as temperatures rise to 5C (41F) Saturday. Strong winds of up to 80km/h are possible across the same region that experienced widespread power outages on Wednesday.

Low pressure is rapidly deepening across the Midwest US early Friday morning, forecast to lift into the eastern Great Lakes today and across southern Quebec on Saturday. Along and south of the St. Lawrence River, warmer air may allow for a brief mix of precipitation on Saturday. Winds will remain strong Saturday, eventually backing to the southwest and west, gusting in excess of 70km/h late Saturday.

In terms of temperatures, Friday will be chilly, with a high near -7C (19F). Overnight temperatures will be on the rise to 1C (33F) by midday Saturday. Colder air will filter in behind the storm late Saturday, down to -4C (26F) and remaining steady Sunday.

Windy weather is expected Sunday, along with frequent snow flurries, as strong southwest winds push lake effect snow down the St. Lawrence Valley from Lake Ontario.

Colder air will surge into the central portion of the continent next week, with near to below normal temperatures forecast through the end of the month for the Montreal region.

Storm two winding down - storm three on the horizon for southern Quebec

A Transport Quebec web cam along Highway 40 in Sainte-Anne-de-Bellevue showing some of the gridlock motorists had to deal with as a result of lane closures made worse by the heavy snow Tuesday evening. Traffic was snarled all over the city. 

The timing of the arrival of our latest storm was very poor indeed, with snow beginning just prior to the evening commute in Montreal Tuesday afternoon. The snow fell fast and furious for several hours, leading to numerous accidents and clogged highways. Anyone heading anywhere in the city needed time and patience. At one point Highway 20 westbound was backed up from the Dorval Circle to Dorion.

Ile Perrot late Tuesday evening after nearly 15cm of snow fell in just a few hours. (Valley Weather)

The storm dumped 16cm of new snow on Montreal in just a few hours, before precipitation changed over to heavy rain, with less than an hour or so of sleet and freezing rain. After the snow, we managed to received close to 15mm of rain, creating plenty of standing water on area highways. Temperatures have warmed above freezing in the St. Lawrence Valley, but remain below north and east of the city where up to 30cm of snow has fallen. Precipitation will taper off to flurries or showers later today.

There were numerous school closings across the Laurentians. This storm had far reaching effects up and down the east coast. Montreal was spared the strongest winds, but that was not the case across other regions. In Sherbrooke, winds gusted to 93km/h (58mph), Watertown, New York reported a wind gust to 127km/h (79mph) on Tuesday afternoon, while in the wee hours this morning, Burlington, Vermont reached 111km/h (69mph). The peak gust in Montreal was only 53km/h (33mph). The combined result of wind and wet snow has cut power to over 41,000 Hydro-Quebec clients, most of those (30,000) are location in the Eastern Townships. In New York, 142,000 customers have no power, with 28,000 in Vermont.

The same storm stretched over thousands of kilometres from the southern plains across the Midwest, Great Lakes, Northeast into southern Ontario and Quebec with a mix of heavy rain, snow, wind and thunderstorms. One thunderstorm produced a tornado in Panama City Beach, Florida (above), with significant damage reported. (Bay County Sheriff Photo)

Further south, severe thunderstorms produced tornadoes across the southeastern US. One tornado produced significant damage in Panama City, Florida early Tuesday morning.

Winds will increase Wednesday afternoon in Montreal, as the 975mb low moves northeast across Quebec. A cold front will arrive this afternoon, along with showers and flurries, with wind gusts to 60km/h. Temperatures will fall back below freezing tonight in Montreal,  down to -6C (23F), so any remaining water will freeze.

NEXT STORM

Thursday will be breezy and colder, -4C (26F), with a little light snow at times. Friday will be a calm day before the next system arrives on Saturday. This storm does not look as strong as it did earlier in the week, but many details still need to be fine tuned. Expect another shot of heavy snow and wind for southern Quebec and Ontario, with perhasp more mixed precipitation. Updates to follow.

Massive winter storm to impact Ontario and Quebec

This weekends storm produced more snow that originally forecast for the Montreal region, as the system moved slightly further north. Traffic was slow on Highway 20 in Ile Perrot, with roads remaining snow covered for most of the day.

Widespread high wind watches, winter storm watches and special weather statements are in effect across Ontario, Quebec, New York and New England for late Tuesday and Wednesday.

We have a very active weather week ahead as two powerful low pressure systems moving across the eastern portion of North America. Before we cover that, let's close up this past weekends snowstorm. The system definitely over performed here in the St. Lawrence Valley. The snow started late Saturday afternoon, lasting 24 hours in the Montreal region. I measured 19cm on Ile Perrot, officially 15 to 20cm fell across the greater Montreal region according to a statement form Environment Canada. Gusty winds produced blowing snow and made roads rather slick on Sunday. There were numerous accidents reported.

The active weather will continue this week. High pressure will briefly build into southern Quebec on Monday, with party sunny skies and seasonable highs near -4C (25F). Skies will fair overnight, with lows near -12C (10F). On Tuesday clouds will thicken and lower ahead a warm front and strong low pressure system forecast to move from the lower Mississippi Valley towards the Great Lakes. The storm is expected to deepen rapidly to a major storm and pass just north of Montreal on Wednesday. 

A wide swath of impactful weather is expected for the eastern two thirds of North America. There are already numerous weather watches and warnings in effect. For Montreal, snow will develop late Tuesday and gradually change to freezing rain and eventually rain on Wednesday morning. Significant amounts of precipitation are expected. Further north, a swath of heavy snow is forecast, with accumulations exceeding 30cm. Accompanying the precipitation will be strong to severe winds across a large portion of the region. Wind gusts between 60-100km/h are expected for many locations. Winds this strong combined with heavy precipitation will likely produce power outages. Precipitation will change back to snow late Wednesday before ending overnight. Temperatures will rise above freezing Wednesday to 3C (38F) before dropping back below freezing into Thursday morning.

This storm has the potential to cause major disruptions to travel, both n the ground and in the air, as well as widespread power outages. 

Further south across the Gulf States and into Florida, strong to severe thunderstorms and numerous tornadoes are expected. Many parts of the eastern US and Atlantic Canada may see significant flooding from heavy rain and melting snow.

Once we clear this storm out on Thursday, an equally strong system will follow for late Friday and Saturday. More on that later.

Series of winter storms expected to impact Montreal over the next week

Montreal has only had one significant winter storm this season, but that will change over the next week or so, with several systems headed this way. Snowfall late today and Sunday will amount to 5-10cm for the city. The storm on Wednesday is expected to produce mixed precipitation and very strong winds.

A series of winter storms will impact the Montreal region over the next week. If you have any travel plans play close attention to the latest forecasts.

Winter is set to return to southern Quebec this week, after a very mild and relatively quiet few weeks. For the third time this week, a few very light snow showers created black ice and numerous accidents during the evening commute on Friday. Only 0.4cm officially fell at Trudeau, but it was enough to ice roads.

Temperatures have fallen steadily overnight, and it is a chilly -9C (16F) early Saturday morning, with gusty northeast winds. The temperature will not budge today, but we will have some sunshine briefly, before clouds steam in from the south ahead of the next system.

A developing winter storm will move along the the eastern seaboard from Delaware to New England on Sunday, spreading a swath of snow across interior portions of the northeast. Montreal and the St. Lawrence Valley will remain on the northern edge of the system. That will still be enough to produce a good 5-10cm of snow from late this evening into Sunday morning. Accompanying the snow on Sunday will be gusty northeast winds of 30-50km/h. Expect slow travel and snow covered roads, something many drivers are clearly not use to this winter.

Snowfall amounts will increase as you head south across New York and New England, where winter storm warnings are in effect for 15-25cm. If your travel plans take you south, expect delays, as well as difficult highway travel. 

Once this storm move off into Atlantic Canada, high pressure will move in for Monday. Expect a return to sunshine, with daytime highs near -3C (27F).

By late Tuesday, the next storm in the line will be moving from Texas towards the Great Lakes, while strengthening significantly. We expect a potent major storm system near Buffalo, New York by Wednesday morning. This storm has the potential to produce heavy precipitation in the form of snow, freezing rain and rain across a wide swath of  Ontario and Quebec. There is also a major wind threat with this storm, with some models predicting wind gusts of over 100km/h. There are many details to work out based on the final track and strength of this storm, so stay tuned.

Stormy weather pattern to develop for southern Quebec

For the second consecutive day, Montreal commuters had to deal with icy roads just in time for the morning rush. Like Wednesday morning, roads iced up quickly, with several accidents reported. The culprit was a cold front that produced flurries that melted early than froze quickly as temperatures plummeted well-below freezing.

With the exception of one snowstorm, the winter of 2023-24 to date has been rather tame. As I write this Thursday morning, a cold front has just moved across the St. Lawrence Valley, leaving in its wake icy roads and plummeting temperatures. The temperatures has fallen from 1C (34F) at 4AM to a current reading of -6C (21F) here on Ile Perrot. Ottawa has already dropped to -10C (14F), with a wind chill of -19C (-2F). This is definitely the coldest air so far this winter. A few flurries accompanied the front, that have now frozen, making for an icy commute for the second consecutive day. Drivers are reminded to adjust their speed, in what has been a rather easy driving winter so far. That is about to change.

The colder air will stick around into the weekend here in Montreal, with overnight lows down to -12C (10F) and daytime highs around -4C (25F). As far as practical weather is concerned, partly cloudy skies will prevail, with decent sunny breaks and a few flurries through Saturday. Winds will be gusty today, up to 50km/h, with cold wind chill readings in the minus teens.

Parade of Storms

There are indications that temperatures will remain near or just slightly above normal across southern Quebec the next few weeks, allowing any storms that do occur to be more of a wintry type and not the abundant rainfall that has been occurring. The first in a series of storms will develop over the southern US Friday and move northeast along the Atlantic coast while deepening. At this time the center is expected to pass well south of Montreal, with just a glancing blow expected. Light snow will develop on Saturday night and persist into Sunday, with perhaps up to 5cm falling in the city. More is expected across the Eastern Townships as well as New York and New England. Winds will be gusty from the northeast on Sunday, making it feel rather cold.

High pressure will briefly make an appearance on Monday into early Tuesday before another storm system moves in from the southwest. This storm will need some serious attention, as all models are predicting it to deepen rapidly into a major low pressure area, while moving from the Mississippi Valley towards the Great Lakes by Wednesday. At this time there are many details to work out, but we are looking at the potential for heavy precipitation, likely snow and ice, along with very strong winds.

As the energy that will become this storm moves onto the Pacific Coast late this weekend, models will begin to handle the data more accurately, and we may get a better idea on a final forecast track. This active weather is expected to persist well into the middle of the month and perhaps beyond.

Quiet weather to end the year in Montreal

Just a dusting of snow was all we could manage across most of southern Quebec this holiday season, as record warmth stretched from coast to coast. You had a better chance of golfing on Christmas Day than skiing. The image above was taken on December 22 on Ile Perrot. The snow melted quickly as temperatures rose above freezing Christmas Eve and remained there through December 29th. (Valley Weather Photo)

Happy New Year and thank you for reading. Valley Weather is set to enter year number 45, starting in 1979. This year will end rather quietly on the weather front across southern Quebec. Cloudy skies prevail this New Years Eve as a clipper system skirts to our southwest, with much colder temperatures than we have been accustomed to. 

The current temperature as I write is -5C (23F) in Montreal, with a hint of snow in the air. The forecast calls for cloudy skies, a few flurries and a chilly overnight low of -9C (16F). The New Year will start with perhaps a few sunny breaks, and a high of -6C (21F). Looking ahead, the week will be quiet, with above freezing temperatures expected once again by Tuesday. By next weekend, colder air will return, with a chance of some snow as a storm system moves along the east coast. There are still many details to work out, so stay tuned.

Thank you El Nino! An Environment Canada map showing temperature anomalies for this December. The entire country was above normal, with numerous locations recording their warmest December on record.  

December has been warm. Numerous locations across Canada have either had their warmest or second warmest month on record. Snow cover is sparse across the country, largely confined to northern areas. Here in Montreal, the average temperature to date is 1.9C (35.4F), well-above the normal of -5.4C (22.3F). As far as precipitation is concerned, we measured 41.4cm of snowfall, most of that falling over a two day period at the start of the month. Rainfall sits at an impressive 102.2mm, just shy of the all time record for the month. On average by December 31st, Montreal has 10cm of snow on the ground, with Quebec City at 34cm. Both are reporting zero snow cover today.

If you thought 2023 was warm in Montreal, you would be correct. The average temperature for the year sits at 8.7C (47.6F), the warmest recorded at Trudeau Airport, dating back to 1942. We beat the record set recently in 2021, of 8.65C (47.5F).

The weather was wild this past year coast to coast, from widespread forest fires and dense smoke, to our April ice storm and a sprinkling of severe weather in between. A total of 86 tornadoes were observed, 10 reported here in Quebec. We managed a record wet July here in southern Quebec, and the warmest summer experienced by Canadians, from sea to sea to sea.

Green, wet and warm holiday season in Montreal

A snowless nativity scene on Boxing Day in Vaudreuil-Dorion. Despite an early December snowstorm, no snow was left for the holidays across the Montreal region. That and very mild temperatures has curtailed most outdoor winter activities. The snowless weather has however, allowed for much better travel conditions than last Christmas. (Valley Weather Photo)

Happy Holidays, Merry Christmas and a very Happy New Year to all my readers.

It certainly does not look or feel like the holiday seasons I was accustomed to as a child growing up in the 1970s. This week has been rather dreary, with a damp northeast wind, and temperatures well-above the freezing point. The temperature has been above freezing since the wee hours of December 24th. December has been warm overall, despite the snowstorm on the 3rd of the month. High temperatures have been above 0C (32F) on 17 of the 27 days to date.

This has resulted in no snow cover at all in the Montreal region, just a dreary brown landscape. Low level moisture is been dominating the weather over the last week, with plenty of drizzle, cloud cover and areas of dense fog. To make matters even more unpleasant, a damp northeast wind has prevailed most of the week.

This years green Christmas was the sixth in the last ten years at Trudeau Airport. Since 1955 when data for such things began, Montreal has recorded 19 years with no snow for Christmas Day. A white Christmas is determined by the presence of at least 2cm of snow on the ground Christmas morning.

So if you are keeping track, there has been snow on Christmas Day in Montreal 72.06% of the time over the last 68 years. The decade of the 1970s was special if you like snowy winters. Only December 25, 1971 and 1979 had no snow on the ground. That represented an 80 percent chance of snow on December 25, which has now dropped to just 60 percent. 

We can debate about it the reason why, but the reality is that our Decembers are warming. So forget about outdoor skating, sledding or using the new snowshoes Santa brought you, at least for now. The next few days will be rather mild and grey, as we add to the monthly rainfall totals. To date, 90.8mm of rain has fallen at Trudeau Airport, well over the normal value of 38.8mm and closing in on the record of 111.9mm set in 1920.

As we look ahead, colder air will begin to arrive in southern Ontario and Quebec for the New Year. However it will only be marginally colder, as most of the country is well-above normal. The drizzle and showers of Thursday, will mix with some wet snow on Friday and Saturday. The weekend looks much the same at this time, with unsettled weather lingering. Temperatures will however be dropping back below freezing by New Years Eve and remaining there to begin January.

Heavy rain and record warmth forecast for Montreal Monday

Heavy rain and record warmth should wash away any memory of last weeks snowstorm in Montreal. Despite nearly 40cm of snow falling this month, many parts of southern Quebec are looking at a green Christmas.

Heavy rainfall warning in effect for southern Quebec, with flood watches posted across Vermont and northern New York State.

Despite what the calendar says, a windy, warm and wet storm is on the way to southern Quebec. Strengthening low pressure off the South Carolina coast is forecast to move northward to lie near Lake Champlain on Monday. Deep tropical moisture is producing torrential rain and strong thunderstorms along many parts of the east coast today. Steady rain will overspread southern Quebec Sunday night, becoming heavy at times Monday morning, and ending late in the day.

At this time, a track just to our east is expected, resulting in up to 50mm of rain for Montreal, with some locations north and east of the city possibly receiving more.  The heavy rain may result in some localized river and urban flooding. The rainfall record for Montreal on December 18 is 52.4mm set back in 1878. Unseasonably warm air will also be in place, with a current forecast low of 5C (41F). The high on Monday will be close to a record-breaking 10C (50F). The current record for the date is 5.7C (42F) set in 1996. We should easily break the record, likely very early in the day.

NWS radar image showing strong low pressure developing off the Florida coast in the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. This storm is moving rapidly north to lie near Lake Champlain late Monday afternoon.

As the storm moves northeast of Montreal, cooler air will move into the region. Any leftover precipitation will change over to light snow and persist into Tuesday. Some locations across far western Quebec and eastern Ontario may pick up a centimetre or two of accumulation. The temperature will drop to 0C (32F) by Tuesday morning, remaining fairly steady during the day.

Winds will become rather gusty Sunday evening, between 30 and 50km/h in the St. Lawrence Valley. Winds will back to the northwest between 20 and 40km/h Monday night persisting into Tuesday.

Wet, windy and warm weather expected for Montreal

Despite the calendar, temperatures are on the rise across most of North America. The last two weeks of December are expected to produce very mild temperatures and very little in the way of snowfall for the Montreal region. A big storm system Monday will bring windy and rainy conditions to most of southern Quebec.

Winter officially arrives on December 21st, but you would not know that by our current weather. As I write, the temperature in Montreal is already 4C (39F) on our way to at least 8C (48F) Friday. The normal high for today's date is -3C (27F). But our weather is anything but normal this fall and winter, and that trend will persist through at least the end of the month.

What does that mean for practical weather?  Well basically we are looking at well-above normal temperatures for most of North America through the holiday period. That starts today, with very strong high pressure anchored in the Atlantic, pumping unseasonably warm air northward.

Meanwhile a strong, almost tropical like system will develop in the Gulf of Mexico today, moving northward over the weekend with abundant moisture. During a typical winter and at this time of year, that track would result in a big snowstorm for parts of the east coast and Quebec. Bit, this is not the case this month. The storm will deepen and move rapidly northward towards New York state and eventually across eastern Quebec. After a mild weekend, we can expect clouds to increase Sunday, ahead of steady soaking rain Sunday night and Monday. This system will be a snow eater, devouring what is left of our snowpack here in the south and significantly reducing it further north. We will have to watch for any potential flooding from the combination of heavy rain and melting snow.

At this time, many parts of our region will likely see at least 25-35mm of rain. Gusty southeast winds may reach 50-70km/h late Sunday. Temperatures will be very warm, approaching 10C (50F) by Monday. A trailing cold front late in the day Monday will bring in marginally cooler air on northwest winds, with any leftover precipitation changing to flurries before ending Tuesday morning. Little accumulation is expected at this time.

The balance of the travel week before Christmas appears to be fair, with seasonable temperatures.

Winter storm to deliver a mix of precipitation across southern Quebec

Despite the mild fall, Montreal has already measured 42.6cm of snow at Trudeau Airport since November 1st. More snow is on the way over the next 24-36 hours for the city, but less than previously expected. Rain will change to wet snow Monday morning, with 5-10cm possible for Montreal, 2-4cm for Ottawa and 10-20cm for Sherbrooke.

Special Weather Statement in effect for Montreal. Additional weather warnings may be required later today for a portion of our region.

Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for upstate New York and Vermont.

A potent storm system will impact the eastern seaboard including southern Quebec over the next 24 to 36 hours. The guidance over the last 24 hours has shifted the heaviest precipitation to the east of Montreal, but we can still expect a messy Monday morning commute.

Light rain fell overnight in Montreal, with temperatures rising to 6C (43F) around 2am, but falling back to the current reading of 2C (36F) on a light northeast wind. A cold front advancing across Ontario, will be the focus for some heavy rain showers today, with as much as 25mm (1 inch) of rain possible. Along that front, low pressure will develop late today and move northeast to be near Boston on Monday. Enough cold air will filter into the region to change the rain over to wet snow late tonight.

The wet snow will move from west to east, impacting just about all of southern Quebec by Monday morning. The snow will be heavy at times, especially east of Montreal across the Eastern Townships and Beauce, as well as Vermont and parts of New England.

As far as amounts are concerned, we are looking at 5-10cm for the greater Montreal region, with 10-20cm for the Townships. Local accumulations may approach 30cm across the higher elevations along the Vermont border. Gusty northwest winds will develop Monday, between 30-50km/h. Theses winds will add stress to the snow loaded power lines, which may result in significant power outages in areas that see the heaviest snow. All precipitation should taper off to flurries by late in the day Monday.

As far as temperatures are concerned, the high Sunday in Montreal will be 6C (43F), dropping to 0C (32F) by Monday morning, and further dropping to -6C (21F) by Tuesday morning.

Expect difficult travel conditions early Monday morning, with rain changing to snow. The snow will be wet and heavy, with reduced visibility, especially along Highway 10 towards Sherbrooke.

This same storm system has been producing heavy rain, strong winds and severe thunderstorms from the Mississippi Valley towards the Ohio Valley and along the east coast. Tornadoes across Tennessee on Saturday have left at least 6 dead. The search continues Sunday morning for additional survivors and victims.

Heavy damage from a tornado in Madison, Tennessee late Saturday.
(Nashville Office of Emergency Management)

Another storm on the way for southern Quebec

We are in for another round of rain, wind and wet snow this Sunday into Monday morning across southern Quebec. There are still many details to work out, but the possibility exists for more tree damage and power outages as occurred this past Monday across the region and in Verdun, shown above. (J Balena)

A very complex weather scenario is expected for the upcoming weekend, that will include much milder air as well as a mix of precipitation. There are many moving parts to this forecast, so check back for updates. Before then, we will have one more chilly, damp day on Friday, with clouds, a few flurries, and a high temperature of -5C (23F).

Over the weekend, a deep trough will set up across the mid Mississippi Valley, with moisture and very warm air streaming northeast into the Great Lakes, Ontario and southern Quebec. Cloudy skies Saturday will yield to flurries and even some drizzle Saturday night and Sunday. Temperatures will rise above freezing Saturday to 2C (36F) and even milder Sunday at 5C (41F).

By Sunday, a strong cold front will begin moving across Ontario into western Quebec. Along and ahead of the front a surge of moisture will bring in excess of 25mm (1 inch) of rain to the Montreal region. With the rain and mild temperatures, we can expect significant snowmelt from last weeks storm. Some local flooding is possible.

By the evening hours, deepening low pressure will begin moving along the aforementioned front and across eastern New England. As the storm moves into Atlantic Canada, colder air will surge in behind, changing rain to wet snow. The changeover should occur Sunday evening in Montreal, with the potential for some significant snowfall in several parts of southern and western Quebec, including Montreal. Accompanying the precipitation on Sunday will be gusty southwest winds, that will back to the northwest and become strong late Sunday, up to 60km/h.

Precipitation will taper off by Monday morning. This storm has the potential to produce a mixed bag of dangerous weather, ranging from strong winds, heavy rain and flooding, to icy roads and possible power outages by Monday. Keep informed and watch for additional weather headlines and warnings that may be required at some point over the weekend.

Winter storm slams Montreal region with 30cm of snow

Montreal was slammed with heavy wet snow overnight. As of 8am Monday morning, 28cm had fallen at Trudeau Airport. Numerous trees have fallen from the weight of the snow, onto power lines and unfortunately for this resident in Verdun, cars as well. Power outages are climbing, with over 88,000 in the dark currently. (Photo: J. Balena)

Winter storm warning remains in effect for Montreal, but should be allowed to expire by mid morning.

The first big snowstorm of the season has over performed in the Montreal region. Moderate snow is still falling Monday morning, with nearly 28cm on the ground so far. The heavy wet snow has brought down trees on power lines, with over 88,000 Hydro-Quebec clients in the dark and cold this morning. This includes 8900 on the island of Montreal.

Roads are in terrible shape in metro Montreal. Highway 20 from Ile Perrot was snow covered, icy and visibility was very poor this morning. There have been numerous accidents in the Montreal region.

The storm was expected to bring mixed precipitation to Montreal. However most of that fell as snow, with amounts expected to exceed 30cm (1 foot) for the city.

The storm system in question lies just south of Montreal, with the dividing line between frozen and liquid precipitation along the US border. Many parts of New York and New England had rain or freezing rain. The same is true in Ontario. While Montreal measured over 20cm Sunday to midnight, Ottawa had only 1cm.

Montreal was the sweet spot for snow accumulation this time, as just enough cold air moved into the city on northeast winds. The temperature remained below freezing at the ground and aloft, ensuring wet snow and not freezing rain.

On Ile Perrot, freezing rain fell for the first few hours of the storm on Sunday afternoon, so my snow totals are about 5cm less than the Airport, located 20 kilometres northeast of my location.

 The snow will continue this morning, tapering off to flurries this afternoon. Conditions should improve the evening, but temperatures will drop. After a high of -2C (29F) today, the low by Tuesday morning will be -7C (19F). Storm totals for the city will likely exceed 30cm.

Warmer weather will return by next weekend, with rain in the forecast and high soaring to 6C (43F) by Saturday. Buckle up, it going to be a long El Nino winter!

Winter storm warning posted for southern Quebec

Light freezing rain is already falling Sunday afternoon across many parts of southern Quebec and Ontario. The precipitation should transition back to heavy wet snow this evening and overnight, with 10-15cm possible in Montreal, Ottawa, and Quebec City.

Winter Storm Warning for southwestern Quebec, eastern Ontario, the Adirondacks and Green Mountains. Winter weather advisory for northern New York and portions of Vermont.

Expect slick and dangerous travel conditions today through Monday morning.

A messy mix of precipitation is expected across southern Quebec and eastern Ontario over the next 24 hours. Low pressure over the Great Lakes will move just south of Montreal tonight, while a second area of low pressure develops along the New England coast and move northeast towards Atlantic Canada.

Precipitation has already overspread the region Sunday afternoon, with freezing rain and rain from Montreal southward, and wet snow north and east of the city. As marginally colder air filters into the St. Lawrence Valley late Sunday afternoon, all precipitation should change back to wet snow and become heavy at times overnight. A general 10 to 15cm is forecast for Montreal and Ottawa, with more north of the city and less south towards the US border.

Gusty northeast winds of 30-50km/h will accompany the snow, putting stress on tree limbs and power lines. Temperatures will remain nearly stationary throughout the period, around 0C (32F) for Montreal. As the precipitation tapers off to flurries Monday afternoon, temperature will drop, to lows of around -5C (23F) by Tuesday morning.

Expect icy and snow covered roads at times over the next 24 hours. I imagine the Monday morning commute will be very challenging, especially for those off island to the west, where the Iles aux Tourtes bridge is down to only one lane in each direction for the foreseeable future. Give yourself plenty of extra time.

Wintry weather returns to Montreal this weekend

A more wintry weather pattern will evolve this weekend into next week, with several chances for snowfall across the Montreal region. Temperatures will fall back below freezing. While temperatures will not be frigid, the weather will certainly be cold enough for frozen precipitation. (Valley Weather Photo)

December has started off very mild in Montreal Friday morning, with temperatures in the middle single digits. It was 8C (47F) on Ile Perrot this morning, the normal low for December 1 is -7C (19F).

The mild weather will persist today, along with cloud cover and eventually some steady rainfall. Highs will remain nearly steady before falling off this evening. A frontal system over the St. Lawrence Valley will become the dividing line between marginally colder air to the north, and unseasonably warm air to the south.

We have a very difficult forecast this weekend, with several of the computer models offering up very different solutions. Low pressure will move along the aforementioned front this afternoon, with widespread rainfall expected. As the low pressure moves past to our south, slightly cooler air will filter into the Montreal region, with rain changing to a period of wet snow and flurries late this evening. There is also a risk of freezing drizzle, especially in the valley locations.

On Saturday, temperatures will remain very close to the freezing point, with a mix of light snow and rain from north to south. The best chance for a few centimetres of accumulation will occur at the higher elevations north of Montreal and across the Townships. 

On Sunday, a stronger area of low pressure will move along the front, passing very close to Montreal. There is a chance that wet snow will develop in the afternoon, becoming heavy at times and persisting into Monday morning before mixing with rain once again. If precipitation falls as predominately snow, a good 10cm may accumulate in Montreal.

I imagine this forecast will change often as it has in the last 48 hours or so, moving back and forth between rain and snow as the main form of precipitation for Montreal. If you have any travel plans, pay close attention to the weekend forecast. I expect the Monday morning commute will be difficult for many parts of our region.

One thing that seems certain, the weather will turn colder next week, with highs remaining below freezing through Friday.