Heat Warning in effect for Montreal

Find ways to stay cool this week, as Canada swelters from coast to coast.

Heat Warning in effect for metro Montreal.

Mascouche Tornado CLICK HERE

What a weather week it has been across Canada. From drought to tornadoes and historic heat, we have seen it all. I will begin with the current weather, it is a very warm and muggy Sunday morning in Montreal, with the temperature already at 24C (76F) at 6am. We are on the way to a high of 32C (90F), with humidex values approaching 40C. Overnight lows will remain well-above 21C (70F) in the city. Environment Canada has posted a heat warning for the region through Tuesday. Warm and humid air is being forced northward by high pressure located off the middle Atlantic coast.

A strengthening Bermuda high will pump tropical air into southern Quebec this week. High temperatures combined with elevated humidity levels will make it feel closer to 40C. Meanwhile western Canada is baking in in historic heat. (AccuWeather.com)

Along the periphery of that heat bubble, showers and thunderstorms have been firing up. Some of the storms were strong on Saturday, with tornadoes reported in central Ontario, into Michigan and Illinois. In Quebec it was much need rainfall, with 21.8mm at Trudeau Airport, 17mm here on Ile Perrot. Every drop helps, but we remain well-below normal in the precipitation department, a drought that stretches back to winter. Saturday's rainfall brings the monthly total in Montreal to 47.2mm, still 50 percent of normal for June. This comes after an extremely dry April and May.

Monday's deadly tornado in Mascouche, was one of four to impact the province that day. The total for the season has already reached 8 in Quebec, we normally only have 5 for the entire year. (CTV News Montreal)

Quebec Tornado Outbreak

The Northern Tornadoes Project out of Western University in London, Ontario has completed their preliminary assessment of Monday's severe weather outbreak in Quebec. The strong thunderstorms produced 4 separate tornadoes. The first occurred south of Montreal at Saint-Valentin near the US border. The tornado touched down at 335pm with 115km/h winds, and EF-0 on the Enhance Fujita Scale. The second tornado was the deadly storm that swept across Mascouche, with widespread severe damage and one fatality. It was an EF-2 with estimated winds of over 180km/h. Between 4 and 5pm two more tornadoes were observed at Saint-Celestin (EF-0, 115km/h winds) and Saint Narcisse-de-Beaurivage (EF-1, 150km/h winds).

Historic Heatwave

 An historic heatwave is gripping portions of western Canada and the Pacific Northwest. Temperatures on Saturday soared into the upper 30s and middle 40s. Over 50 high temperature records were broken in B.C., including 43.2C (110F) at Lytton. Temperatures will be even warmer on Sunday and Monday, with a high of 47C forecast for the B.C. interior. If that occurs it will become the warmest temperature ever recorded in Canada. The current record dates back to the dirty thirties, when Yellow Grass, Saskatchewan reached 45C (113F) on July 5, 1937.

The heatwave has even impacted the large coastal cities, with Victoria and Vancouver reaching into the middle 30s. Portland, Oregon recorded there warmest day ever on Saturday, reaching 108F (42.2C) surpassing the  benchmark of 107F set in 1981.

The heatwave is forecast to persist all week as hot high pressure builds in from the deserts of the southwest US. The heat will spared east into Alberta and Saskatchewan as the week prevails. 

Strong thunderstorms for the first day of summer

Lightning illuminates the sky over Ile Perrot during recent thunderstorms. There have not been to many storms this season to date, but a frontal boundary is poised to generate severe thunderstorms Monday afternoon across southern Quebec. Be alert to rapidly changing weather conditions if you have any outdoor activities planned for Monday. (Valley Weather Photo)

Elevated risk for severe thunderstorms Monday afternoon in Montreal

Summer officially arrives at 11:32 PM Sunday evening, and right on cue, a warm and humid airmass will arrive across southwestern Quebec. Sunday was a sunny and pleasant day, with temperatures topping out in the high 20s, 29C (85F) here on Ile Perrot, along with low humidity. The evening will remain dry and mild, with clouds on the increase after midnight. Lows will remain warm, in the upper teens.

A warm front will lift across the region during the pre-dawn hours Monday, accompanied by scattered showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder. Skies will then partially clear Monday morning, with strong, gusty southwest winds briefly transporting tropical air into the St. Lawrence Valley. Temperatures will rise quickly into the upper 20s and low 30s across the region. Humidity levels will rise as well, making for a muggy day. The airmass will become quite unstable, with plenty of energy to fuel developing storms.

A frontal boundary is expected to move into the region late in the day, with strong to severe thunderstorms developing in advance of the trough. The storms are expected to form across eastern Ontario by 2pm and move east-northeast along the boundary into southern Quebec. At this time, there is an elevated risk of severe weather. The main threat will be strong gusty winds up to 100km/h, but large hail, torrential downpours and dangerous lightning are possible as well. A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be issued by Environment Canada some time Monday morning.

If you have any outdoor plans on Monday, keep and eye to the sky. This is especially true if you will be out on the open water. The threat for severe weather will diminish into the evening hours Monday. Skies will partially clear on Tuesday, along with cooler, less humid conditions. High temperatures will be in the low 20s for Montreal.

Much needed rain for southern Quebec and Ontario

A spectacular sunrise, taken through the annular solar eclipse last Thursday morning on Ile Perrot. Much needed rain is forecast to start this week along with muggy weather. (Valley Weather Photo)

The moderate drought that has stretched throughout the spring has left much of the region desperate for rainfall. Overnight, thunderstorms produced around 8mm of rain in Montreal, but the monthly departure from normal remains at around 75 percent below the long-term average. This after only 15 to 25 percent of normal precipitation fell last month, including the driest May on record for Montreal. More showers and thunderstorms are forecast this afternoon into the evening hours as a frontal boundary moves across the St. Lawrence Valley. Some of the storms may be strong, with heavy rain and small hail the main threat. The weather will be warm and muggy, with highs near 25C (77F).

More showers are expected on Tuesday with slightly cooler temperatures around 22C (72F). Over the two day period, up to 25mm (1 inch) of rain is possible, with more in heavier thunderstorms. 

As the dry weather persists over a large portion of the province, SOPFEU has had to seek assistance from B.C., Alberta and New Brunswick. Several teams have arrived in Quebec to help battle 16 active fires burning across the province. (SOPFEU Photo) 

Quebec is currently extremely dry, with the Montreal region and the Laurentians under extreme fire conditions. SOPFEU, the provincial department responsible for forest fire prevention has called in assistance from B.C., Alberta and New Brunswick. At present, there are 16 active fires burning in the province. A widespread burn ban was put in place last Thursday across 12 regions of the province. This year there have already been 357 fires, well above the ten year average of 204. The fires have consumed over 7000 hectares (17,300 acres).

The lack of rain has had a serious impact on agriculture across the region. Locally on Île Perrot, the stress on vegetation due to the lack of precipitation can be seen just about everywhere. Grass is turning brown and some trees are dropping leaves. Municipalities on Ile Perrot as well as Vaudreuil-Dorion have watering restrictions in place. In the case of Notre-Dame-de-L'Île-Perrot where I live, we are only permitted to water for two hours between 8 to 10pm on alternating even/odd days, depending on your address. Check with your municipality for any restrictions. Fines can be quite high and from what I understand are being enforced.

It will take a few months of above normal rainfall to begin to narrow the deficit in Montreal. Unfortunately we are heading into our typically hottest, driest weather of the year, highly dependent on thunderstorm activity.

Heat warning in effect for Montreal and Ottawa

Thunderstorms on Saturday afternoon across portions of southern Quebec only helped increase the humidity across the city. The warmest day of the current heatwave is forecast on Monday, with a high of 34C for Montreal. Overnight lows will remain sultry, dropping to 24C (76F).

Widespread heat warnings are in effect for southern Quebec including metro Montreal, eastern Ontario, including Ottawa and the Champlain Valley of New York and Vermont. The combination of very warm temperatures and elevated humidity will make it feel closer to 40C today. Drink plenty of water and relax outdoor activities when possible. Dry to spend a portion of the day in air conditioned space. Montreal is already at 23C (73F) at 6am.

Monday will be the warmest day of the current heatwave, with high temperatures expected into the middle 30s across portions of southern Quebec, along with high humidity. We can expect a record-breaking high of 34C (94F) in Montreal, which should surpass the previous benchmark of 33.4C set in 1999. Gusty winds are also expected today from the southwest 30 to 50km/h, helping to pull in tropical air from the Gulf of Mexico.

On Sunday, the heat and humidity built up quickly after the afternoon thunderstorms on Saturday. The high was 31.4C (89F) in Montreal, also a record for the date beating the 2005 high of 30.8C (87F). The storms on Saturday became rather strong for portions of the city, with close to 15mm of rain falling in less than 30 minutes at Trudeau Airport. Locally, some parts of Montreal received over 30mm, but I only measured 4mm here on Ile Perrot, as the storms passed northeast of my location. Strong winds were observed as well, along with frequent lightning. 

Monday should be dry for most of us, with just a slight risk of a shower or storm in the mountains well north and southeast of the St. Lawrence Valley. Showers and thunderstorms will increase on Tuesday ahead of a backdoor cold front. That front will cross the region early Wednesday, ushering in drier and slightly cooler air. Before then, expect a hot day Monday and Tuesday. The high on Tuesday will be near 31C, dropping to 30C for Wednesday. Overnight lows will be very warm, in the low to middle 20s in Montreal. Much cooler, more pleasant air arrives for Thursday, with a high of  24C (76F) forecast and lower humidity. 

Driest May on record for Montreal

The 5.6mm of rain that fell on Thursday in Montreal has knocked down the dust for few hours. Dry, hot weather is forecast to return by Sunday. The region desperately needs rain after a record-breaking low 12.1mm fell in Montreal for the entire month of May.

If your grass is turning brown, you're not alone, we need rain. Despite the 7.6mm that has fallen so far in June at Trudeau Airport, the region remains extremely dry for late spring. The month of May was the driest ever recorded in Montreal, with a paltry 12.1mm falling at the airport. That represents only 14 percent of the normal rainfall of 81.2mm. The 12.1mm easily crushed the previous record of 15.2mm set in 1982. Water levels are way down on area lakes and streams.

Many municipalities  have already put in place watering bans or restrictions for their residents. Some communities such as Vaudreuil-Dorion are strictly enforcing existing water bylaws concerning outdoor watering and filling pools. A permit is required from the city for newly sodded or seeded lawns. Water levels on the Ottawa and St. Lawrence Rivers are very low for this time of the season. Mariners have been advised to use extreme caution on the lakes, streams and Seaway.

Data collected for May in Quebec shows a serious deficit in rainfall across southern Quebec. Only 14 percent of the normal rainfall fell in Montreal. (Environment Canada)

The other issue had been extremely dry and dusty forests and brush that has resulted in an elevated fire risk across parts of central and southern Quebec and Ontario. The good news is the fire risk has lowered for the short-term after yesterday's modest rainfall of 5.6mm in Montreal and 9.6mm on Ile Perrot. Humidity levels will be on the rise as well for the next week or so, but so will the temperature. There will be an increasing risk of showers and thunderstorms through the weekend and late next week. As a result of the prolonged dry weather, caution should be used for any outdoor burning. Check with your municipality regarding any restrictions or permits needed.

First heatwave of the season on the horizon for Montreal

The first heatwave of the season is expected to begin this weekend across southern Quebec and persist into early next week. Temperatures in Montreal are forecast to reach into the middle 30s along with elevated humidity levels.

After a really odd month of May, June will start with a significant heatwave in the near-future for Montreal and most of eastern North America. The data is still being reviewed for May, but it was a month that feature record high and low temperatures. The extreme temperatures officially at Trudeau Airport were 31.5C (89F) and 1.7C (35F). It was a dry month to say the least, only 11.6mm of rain fell, making it the driest May on record for Montreal. You can see it in neighbourhood lawns, which if you are following water restrictions, are turning brown. Some rain is in the forecast both today and again Thursday. The Thursday system will be the leading edge of very warm, moist air, originating form the Gulf of Mexico. We may finally see a decent downpour, with perhaps as much as 25mm (1 inch) here in the St. Lawrence Valley. We really need it.

Once the rain ends early Friday morning, we are looking at at least a 5 day stretch of hot and humid weather. Temperatures will begin the period around 27C (81F), but rise into the low to middle 30s over the weekend and early next week. Humidity levels and dewpoints will be on the rise as well, making it feel rather uncomfortable and sticky through next week. Any relief in the form of showers and isolated thunderstorms may come by late Tuesday.

The combination of high heat and humidity will make it dangerous for many, so now is the time to install your air conditioners, get your pools ready and prepare for extended hot weather.

The location of the three EF-2 tornadoes that occurred on Tuesday, May 25. The data and map are courtesy of Northern Tornadoes Project at Western University.

Quebec Tornadoes

Adding to the strange weather month that May was, is the fact that the province has already recorded 4 tornadoes. Three of them occurred on May 25, well northwest of Montreal near Rouyn-Noranda. The storms occurred early in the evening along a strong cold front. Satellite data shows the first tornado, an EF-2 with 190km/h winds, occurred near Petit Lac Bull at 7:05pm. The second, another EF-2 occurred at Lac Des Deux Cantons, and the final tornado of the day at 8:25pm, was also an EF-2 near Lac Simpson. Quebec averages 4.7 storms for the entire year, with most of the severe weather season still ahead of us.

Strong thunderstorms - turning much cooler for southern Quebec

A spectacular sunset in Terrasee-Vaudreuil after a glorious Victoria Day Monday across southern Quebec. Skies were crystal clear all day along with light winds, low humidity and a high of 21C (70F). (Photo Tammy Arbour)

There is a risk of strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon across the region.

It is a very warm and muggy morning across southern Quebec this Wednesday after a mild overnight. Early morning temperatures did not drop below 21C (70F) across the region. Clouds will mix with sun to start the day, followed by an increase in coverage of showers and isolated thunderstorms by early afternoon. It will be a very windy day, with gusts out of the southwest between 30 and 50km/h, increasing to 50 to 70km/h this afternoon.

The weather will be warm and humid today, with temperatures approaching 30C (86F) by early afternoon in Montreal. A rather vigorous cold front is forecast to cross the region late in the day. Ahead of the front, a line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to develop and move across the region from northwest to southeast. Some of the storms have the potential to become rather strong, with gusty winds being the main threat, but also small hail, dangerous lightning and heavy rainfall. The storms should taper off by sunset, with just a few scattered showers into the overnight period. We need any rainfall we can manage, as just 8.6mm has fallen at Trudeau Airport in May. If this holds, it will break the record for the driest May set back in 1982 when only 12mm fell.

Skies will clear out on Thursday, the weather will turn much cooler and drier, with daytime highs near 17C (63F). Overnight lows will drop down into the single digits Thursday night, with a risk of frost away from the urban areas. High pressure will dominate the weather into the weekend, with mostly clear skies along with slowly warming temperatures.

Warm summer-like week ahead for Montreal

A beautiful summer-like evening along the waterfront in Lachine. The weather has been spectacular as temperatures have warmed to well-above normal values for mid-May. The warm weather should last into the Victoria Day long weekend.

A weak cold front moved across southern Quebec overnight, with just a few isolated showers. Cloudy skies will clear quickly this morning and we can expect another sunny, warm afternoon. High temperatures have been in the mid to upper 20s across southern Quebec, and that trend is expected to persist. Highs will be close to 26C (79F) Tuesday, and up to 30C (86F) both Wednesday and Thursday.

The airmass will become a little more humid as we head into Friday and the weekend, with slightly cooler temperatures, along with an increasing risk of showers and thunderstorms. We really need some rainfall as the forests are drying out, and the risk of fire is very high currently in southwestern Quebec. Trudeau Airport has received only 5.2mm of rain to date in May. Even less has fallen in other parts of southern Quebec. This is well below the long-term May average of 81.2mm for Montreal. However, as we witnessed in April, it only takes a day or two to catch up, so let's hope some of those showers develop.

WESTERN SNOWSTORM

While Montreal enjoys our first hot weather of 2021, parts of northern Manitoba including Churchill are under winter storm warnings. Deep low pressure will bring a spring snowstorm to the northern Prairies. Between 30 and 40cm of snow is forecast over the next 36 hours along with winds of 40 to 70km/h and temperatures well-below freezing. At the same time, Winnipeg, in the southern portion of the province is forecasting a high of 30C (86F) today. Just another spring day in Canada!

Temperatures finally warming up in Montreal

The weather is finally starting to feel more like summer in Montreal.

It certainly has been a chilly start to May in Montreal, however the weather is expected to slowly warm over the next few days, starting Friday. High pressure is building into the region, but not without a few hiccups along the way. Frequent upper air disturbances in the atmosphere have been delivering afternoon showers and even the occasional rumble of thunder all week. That trend will persist into the weekend and even early next week. Any showers will be widely scattered, so most regions will remain dry through the period, but wet weather can't be completely ruled out. The best chance for any thunderstorms in Montreal would be Sunday afternoon into the early evening. During the weekend, we can also expect some gusty west winds, between 20 and 40km/h.

Despite the scattered showers, the region continues to be rather dry. Through May 13, Trudeau Airport has only measured 4.6mm of rain. As far as temperatures go, we are finally warming. The high Friday and into the weekend will be around 24C (75F). As we head into next week, we may even see our first 27C (80F) temperature in Montreal. Overnight lows will be seasonably chilly, in the 8C to 12C range (48F to 54F)

One final note, water temperatures around the entire region remain very cold, in most cases well below 10C (50F). Water temperatures that cold can cause hypothermia almost immediately. Last weekend a 28 year old father and his three year old son were killed on Lake Champlain after their kayak flipped. They succumbed quickly to the cold water despite the best efforts of first responders. It is advised that you remain out of the water for the time being. However if you do venture out, you should have cold water gear and always wear your life jacket.

Be safe, have a great weekend.

Our cool spring weather continues

Many parts of southern Quebec remain parched after an extremely dry March and April. The only exceptions are in eastern Quebec closest to the Atlantic Ocean. Central and western Quebec remain well-below normal in terms of rainfall, while Montreal was normal thanks to two days of heavy rain in April. The dry weather has led to a sharp increase in forest fire activity across the province of Quebec, with 127 fires to date in 2021. The ten-year average for the same period is 77 according to SOPFEU. (Environment Canada)

Many parts of southern Quebec had a touch of frost overnight as temperatures dipped to near the freezing point. It was 1C (34F) at my home on Ile Perrot Friday morning, with just a hint of ice on the car windshield. The weather remains very cool for early May, with temperatures running 5 to 10 degrees below the long-term average. Despite the clouds and damp weather, precipitation totals have once again been rather light to start May, as they were in March and April. To date only 2.8mm of rain has fallen at Trudeau Airport. 

April started very dry as well, but several impressive systems over the last two weeks of the month, actually brought precipitation to just above normal for Montreal. The deal was sealed on the last day of the month when 30mm of rain fell on Montreal last Friday. We ended the month with 83.7mm of precipitation, the normal is 82.2mm. That total included a few centimetres of snow just for good measure, actually more than what fell in March. Many parts of the province were very dry, which resulted in an above normal start to the forest-fire season. Trois Rivieres, northeast of Montreal, received only 15.6mm, or 20 percent of their normal rainfall. That amount was indicative of just how dry it was across west-central Quebec.

Unfortunately it appears our current weather pattern will remain in place for several more days. We are looking at another week of unsettled weather, with more clouds than sunshine and the occasional shower. Temperatures will remain below normal, with daytime highs between 10 and 15C (50 to 60F) and overnight lows between 2 and 7C (35 to 45F). There will be an ever present risk of showers or sprinkles, but the weather should be dry most of the upcoming weekend. The best day at this time appears to be Sunday. Breaks of sunshine may allow the temperatures to gain a few extra degrees. I see no serious heat in the forecast for at least the next ten days.

Extended period of wet weather forecast for Montreal

Rainy, damp weather is anticipated for the next 5 to 7 days across southern Quebec, with the only break coming on Saturday. The forecast rainfall will help return the region to near-normal precipitation for April.

We are making up for lost time in Montreal, after a very dry March and first half of April, the rain has returned to southern Quebec. Cooler, wet weather is anticipated on Friday and into early next week. On Wednesday, 5.4mm of rain fell at Trudeau Airport, bringing the monthly precipitation up to 47.2mm. The month started with 13 consecutive dry days. The normal precipitation for the month is 82.2mm, which usually includes 12.9cm of snow. Snow however has been sparse this Spring, Montreal has only received a 7.6cm of snow since March 1st.  

Thursday is expected to be mostly cloudy, with a few sunny breaks and a mild high temperature of 17C (63F). Clouds will thicken this afternoon and rain will begin this evening as low pressure moves from the Ohio Valley to theAtlantic coast. Abundant moisture is forecast to spread northward across New York and New England today and into southern Quebec. Expect a steady rain overnight in Montreal, tapering to showers Friday afternoon. Rainfall amounts will range from 20 to 30mm across southern Quebec, bringing Montreal very close to the normal precipitation for April. 

Showery, foggy weather will persist into the evening hours across the region, with even a few flurries mixing in at the higher elevations along the US border. Low temperatures will remain close to 10C (50F). The high will be much cooler on Friday, remaining steady near 10C, but dropping slowly in the afternoon. Winds will become quite strong from the west up to 60km/h in the afternoon. It will be a blustery, cold, damp day to start May.

Nicer weather returns for the first half of the weekend, with Saturday being the best day of the next 5 or 6 days. Expect partly sunny skies, but breezy and cool, with a high of only 10C (50F). Rain returns on Sunday, with scattered showers forecast for Monday through Wednesday.

Warmer weather to follow record snowfall in Montreal

The 5cm of snow that fell on Montreal on Wednesday was the most on April 21 in over a century. (ValleyWeather Photo)

After a very warm spring to date, residents of southern Quebec and Ontario were shocked by several centimetres of snow that fell on Wednesday and Thursday. It is not often the case here in Montreal that more snow falls in April than in March, but that is how the weather turned out in 2021. The 5cm of wet snow that fell on the city Wednesday set a new daily record. There has not been that much snow on April 21 in over 100 years, dating back to 1905. The 2cm of snow that remained on the ground Thursday morning, was the deepest snow measured at Trudeau Airport for any April 22 since 1955. Only 2.2cm of snow fell in Montreal the entire month of March.

Brief, intense snow squalls swept across the island of Montreal on Thursday morning. The quick burst of snow caught many motorists off guard, with numerous accidents reported, especially off-island to the west. (ValleyWeather Photo)

Snow squalls on Thursday morning were actually more disruptive than Wednesday's snow, especially in the western portion of Montreal and off island towards the Ontario border. A quick layer of snow coated roads and produced black ice during the morning commute. There were several major accidents reported. The snow showers tapered off in the afternoon, but the weather remained windy and cold.

Conditions have improved greatly on Friday, as the snow has melted, and temperatures are into the low teens. Low pressure remains to our northeast, so the winds are still gusting up to 50km/h. High pressure will give us a sunny, much warmer Saturday, with highs back into the upper teen and light winds.

A frontal boundary will approach southern Quebec on Sunday, with a renewed chance for showers and perhaps a thunderstorm. Temperatures will be near normal, with a high of 15C. We can expect temperatures to be cooler on Monday, but quickly warm back up to the upper teens and even lower 20s next week.

Spring snow on the way for Southern Quebec

Workers defy gravity as they begin to break up the winter snow piled several storeys high at the St Laurent dump on Thimens Boulevard. Colder weather this week and even the potential for some snow by Wednesday, should temporarily slow the melting process. (ValleyWeather Photo)

If you are one of the few who had hoped to see snowflakes fly just one more time in Montreal, then you are in luck. Otherwise, turn away now from this forecast. After what has been a fairly warm month, we are looking at the potential for accumulating snow this Wednesday.

The coastal system that impacted southern Quebec and new England on Friday, produced quite a bit of wet snow across the Townships and interior New England, however precipitation remained as rain for Montreal, with 25-35mm falling across the city. Colder air settled into southern Quebec for the weekend, under partly cloudy skies.

The storm in question is expected to develop south of the Great Lakes and move just south of Montreal on Wednesday. Colder air filtering into the region will change the rain to snow late Wednesday. (AccuWeather.com)

We are in for a mild start to the week, reaching 17C (63F) in Montreal on Monday, before a frontal system arrives late in the day. A few showers are possible this evening along with a rumble or two of thunder. Cooler, windy weather is forecast for Tuesday, with highs near 10C (50F) and winds up to 50km/h. The weather will turn quite active on Wednesday, as low pressure approaches from the Ohio Valley. The storm is expected to move across the southern Great Lakes and into northern New England on Thursday. A narrow swath of wet snow is forecast to fall along and just north of the storms track impacting southern Ontario and Quebec. At this time, rain is expected Wednesday in Montreal, changing to wet snow during the evening hours and ending early Thursday. Amounts are very difficult to predict at this time of year, and will depend heavily on when the changeover occurs as well as local elevation. There is a chance of 5 to 10cm of slushy wet snow along and just north of the St. Lawrence River.

While we have not had much in the way of snow since late February, it is not that unusual for Montreal to have snow in April. As a mater of fact the reverse is actually true, it has been rather rare in 2021 to not have any snowfall during March and April. A quick look at the statistics form Trudeau Airport shows that you have to go back to 2005 to find a year with no snow in Montreal in April.

Temperatures will be cold on Wednesday and Thursday, expect highs around 3C (37F) and low temperatures at or just below the freezing point. With the very mild weather we have experienced over the last two weeks, many trees and shrubs have started to bud or flower. The wet snow, frost and cold will not be good for any flowering plants. The good news is that temperatures will warm again quickly into next weekend, with highs back into the middle teens.

Rainy - cooler weather on the horizon for Montreal

Weather conditions have been extremely dry across southern Quebec, with only 0.4mm of precipitation falling at Trudeau Airport since April 1st. We do need the rain, and can expect 20 to 30mm on Thursday and Friday. The clouds and precipitation will result in much cooler temperatures than we have had recently.

The weather so far this April has been spectacular. Over the past week in Montreal, temperatures have been well above the long-term average, along with abundant sunshine. We can thank a blocking pattern over the North Atlantic that has managed to keep any adverse weather at bay. The storm track has been primarily to our west over central Ontario as well as across Atlantic Canada. Those regions have had a miserable April to date. Heavy snow and cold weather is occurring across the Prairies, while heavy rain, freezing rain and snow battered Newfoundland this week.

The weather however has been exceptionally dry in Montreal, with no precipitation since the wee hours of April 1st. For the month to date, a paltry 0.4mm of rain has fallen, along with a trace of snow. That is all about to change as an upper level low is forecast to move across northern New England over the next 24 hours. A general increase in clouds tonight, will be followed by rain on Thursday, persisting into Friday. We can expect a widespread soaking rainfall, with 20 to 30mm possible for Montreal. A second area of low pressure at the surface is expected to develop and move along the eastern seaboard into Maine on Friday. This storm system may even produce a period of wet snow across New England. Winter storm watches have been hoisted for southern Vermont as well as portions of New Hampshire and Maine. I am not expected any snow in Montreal.

The clouds and precipitation will however result in much cooler temperatures across southern Quebec, more inline with what you would expect for mid-April. Over the last week daytime highs have been running in the mid-teens to low 20s. The normal high and low for Montreal should be 11C (52F) and 1C (33F) respectively. On Thursday the high will be 10C (50F), even cooler Friday, with a high of 7C (45F). The weekend will remain unsettled and cool, with clouds and showers Saturday and perhaps some partial clearing by Sunday. There is even a risk of scattered frost this weekend in Montreal, as lows dip to near the freezing point.

Near-perfect early spring weather for Montreal

A spectacular spring sunset over the St. Lawrence River. The lack of precipitation this spring, combined with a very slow thaw, has resulted in no flooding to date. Water levels are being monitored, but are actually forecast to drop over the next few days on both the Lake of Two Mountains and Lac St. Louis.

High pressure will dominate the weather picture for the upcoming week across southern Quebec. Stubborn low pressure over Nova Scotia will ensure a damp, cool week for Atlantic Canada and portions of eastern Quebec, while allowing high pressure to remain stationary over our region. Some shower activity may even drift westward into the Eastern Townships. As far as Montreal is concerned, we will have nothing but sunshine, along with increasing warmth.

Our snowstorm forecast for last Thursday turned out to be a non-event, as the system remained well to the east of Montreal. Portions of the Townships and Vermont reported as much as 10cm of snow, while Montreal managed less than 1cm. The sun returned by the end of the day followed by a very pleasant weekend, cold Friday and Saturday, but warming up nicely on Sunday.

The forecast for the week ahead is simple, sunny skies, with no precipitation expected. High temperatures will start the week in the lower teens, but rise to near 20C by Friday. Overnight lows will be 2 to 6C. 

The low relative humidity and gusty winds forecast for Monday, will mean an increase in fire danger. There is an abundance of dry leaves and other combustable material present, and any fire may quickly become out of control. Many areas are advising against outdoor burning, including southwestern Quebec, eastern Ontario and all of New York and Vermont.

The weather has been extremely dry across southern Quebec so far this spring. Only 2.2cm of snow fell in Montreal in March, a new record low. The previous record was 2.6cm set in 2009. Total precipitation for the month of March was 50mm, well below the normal of 69.1mm. So far April has only yielded 2.4mm. No rain is forecast through at least Saturday.

Spring snowstorm on the way for southern Quebec

You may want to wait just a few more days before removing your winter tires. Montreal has enjoyed a very easy end to winter so far, with only 2.2cm of snow measured at Trudeau Airport during the month of March. That is about to change as a potent cold front and developing east coast storm are forecast to bring steady wet snow to southern Quebec on Thursday.

Despite sunshine and temperatures in the middle teens Tuesday afternoon in Montreal, we are looking at a spring snowstorm starting late Wednesday and persisting into Thursday. Before then, we can expect fair skies and mild temperatures through Wednesday afternoon. A potent cold front is forecast to approach from the west Wednesday afternoon, passing across southern Quebec in the early evening. Rain is forecast to develop across southwestern Quebec along with dropping temperatures throughout the evening. 

A special weather statement has been issued for southern Quebec including Montreal for up to 10cm of snow on Thursday. In northern New York and Vermont, a winter storm watch is now in effect, with 10-25cm possible. (AccuWeather.com Image)

High temperatures on Wednesday will reach a mild 14C (56F) by midday before the arrival of precipitation. Afterwards expect a steady fall to the freezing point by midnight, with rain changing to snow. The front will become stalled across eastern New England, as low pressure develops over Delaware and moves northeast towards Maine. Steady wet snow is expected in the St. Lawrence Valley through the day Thursday, with early estimates of 10-15cm for the region. Across portions of the Townships and Adirondacks of New York, 15-25cm is possible. Travel will be difficult on Thursday. 

The snow will taper off to flurries late Thursday in Montreal, with partly cloudy skies and cold temperatures expected during the overnight period and Friday. Lows will be down to -10C (14F) by Friday morning. The snowy, cold weather will be short-lived, as sunshine and mild temperatures return for the weekend.

The strong cold front expected to sweep Ontario and Quebec is part of the same storm system that hammered parts of southern Alberta and Saskatchewan on Monday with hurricane force winds and heavy snow. A peak wind gust of 159km/h (98 mph) was observed on Nakiska Ridgetop just west of the Kananaskis Village in Alberta. In Saskatchewan, winds reached 120km/h (75 mph) at Swift Current. Parts of the Trans Canada Highway were closed for hours as the wind and heavy snow made for near-zero visibility. The sudden cold was in stark contrast to the record highs that occurred just a few hours earlier on Sunday afternoon.

Unsettled weather week ahead for southern Quebec

Strong west winds of 50 to 80km/h are forecast for Montreal Sunday night into Monday, along with rain changing to snow showers after midnight.

March and April can be volatile months as the seasons battle it out. We have already witnessed very active and highly variable weather in southern Quebec over the last week, and this trend will continue. Strong low pressure is lifting northwest of Montreal Sunday afternoon, accompanied by another round of heavy rain and strong winds. After the 20 to 30mm of rain that fell on the city Friday, we can expect another 10 to 20mm through Sunday evening.

Another round of steady rain is expected Sunday afternoon into the evening hours along with very strong winds. The rain may end as a period of light snow after midnight in Montreal.

The big weather story for the St. Lawrence Valley with the current storm, will be the strong winds that develop late this evening. A cold front will sweep across southern Quebec by midnight, ushering in the strong winds along with much colder temperatures. Winds will increase out of the west and northwest, between 50 and 80km/h. The gusty winds will persist into Monday, along with any leftover rain, changing to snow. The temperature will fall from 10C (50F) Sunday afternoon down to -2C (28F) by Monday morning.

Monday will be very windy and cold, with flurries and high temperatures struggling to reach plus 3 or 4C (37 to 40F). The cold air will be short-lived as temperatures are forecast to rebound by Tuesday, with highs up to 13C (55F) under fair skies.

Spring Snow

As we look ahead, another very strong cold front is forecast to cross the region late Wednesday evening. Low pressure is also expected to develop in southeast New England. The combination of deep Atlantic moisture and colder temperatures may bring us a period of rain changing to snow Wednesday night. There is a possibility of accumulating snow into Thursday morning for parts of southern Quebec and eastern Ontario. The evolution of this system will have to be closely monitored.

A very rare March tornado damaged this home in Middlebury, Vermont on Friday afternoon. The EF-1 rated tornado cut a swath of damage a mile long. On average the state only reports one tornado each year usually during the summer months. An EF-1 tornado is capable of winds up to 177 km/h. (WPTZ Photo)

Severe Weather & Tornadoes

We are not the only region with stormy weather. On Friday, severe thunderstorms across Vermont produced a very rare March tornado. The EF1 rated storm cut a swath of damage 1 mile long near Middlebury in the west-central portion of the state, approximately 200km south of Montreal. Several homes were damaged with at least two injuries reported.

Meanwhile the southern US has been experiencing severe weather, with dozens of tornadoes and flash flooding. Tornadoes on Thursday and Friday were responsible for several fatalities in Alabama. While strong thunderstorms put down over 125mm (5 inches) of rain in Nashville on Saturday. The heavy rain produced widespread flash flooding with at least 4 fatalities reported. Hundreds needed to be rescued from their vehicles and homes as a result of the flooding in Nashville and across Tennessee.

Overnight thunderstorms rattle the Montreal region

The first thunderstorms of the season rumbled across southern Quebec overnight, waking up many in the Montreal region. More isolated storms are possible tonight and Friday, especially south of Montreal. 

Heavy rain warning for Montreal

As written Wednesday afternoon on this very blog, we had some bone-rattling thunderstorms overnight. One particular lightning strike at 3:25am seemed to wake up the entire West Island as well as off-island communities. Social media lit up immediately with theories as to what the loud sound was. It certainly rattled the windows on Ile Perrot, shook the entire house and set off car alarms, but it was not an earthquake or aliens. It was simply a rare March nocturnal thunderstorm.

A warm front lifting across southern Quebec was the culprit. The cold dense air at the surface was being overridden by very warm air higher in the atmosphere. The thunderstorms were not that intense in nature, with very little wind and only 5mm of rainfall on Ile Perrot. What the storms did have was some pretty intense lightning and thunder. The thunder was capped by the warm air aloft and reverberated back to the surface making the rumble seem much louder and longer than usual. With the cold air at the surface and warm air above it, the warm air will act like a ceiling, or insulator to things like sound waves. The sound from the thunder will hit the bottom of the warm layer and bounce back to the ground. This was not your typical warm, humid summer afternoon storm. So if anybody asks you what that was, you definitely have the answer.

We will have a very warm and windy day in Montreal, with winds increasing to 50km/h out of the southwest. We can expect a record high of 21C (70F). A strong spring storm arrives on Friday, with heavy rain and gusty winds. Rainfall warnings are in effect for Montreal and southern Quebec, with up to 40mm possible. North of Montreal freezing rain and even wet snow is forecast. Temperatures will cool off considerably from Thursday, with highs struggling to reach 10C (50F) in Montreal, and dropping to the freezing point into Saturday. The weekend will be even colder, with flurries possible.

You have to love March in Montreal, never boring.

Weather whiplash - from record spring warmth to snow

A warm front may produce some scattered thunderstorms across southern Ontario and Quebec late Thursday and early Friday morning. Record warm air will then surge into Montreal on Thursday.

Montreal managed to sneak in a record high on Tuesday afternoon, reaching 19C (66F), surpassing the previous mark of 18.6C (65F) set in 1979. It was our second record high this month, with a third likely on Thursday in Montreal as temperatures are expected in the upper teens and even low 20s. The record to beat for March 25 is 16.7C (61F) set in 1996. Before then, a warm front will lift across southwestern Quebec Wednesday evening and overnight. We can expect some much need showers and even a few scattered thunderstorms. Thursday will be partly sunny, breezy and very warm, with gusty southwest winds pulling in the warmth from the deep southern US. Enjoy Thursday, as the weather will turn stormy into Friday. 

The first of two strong low pressure systems will move across southern Ontario and Quebec on Friday, accompanied by much cooler temperatures, strong winds and heavy rainfall. There may even be some wet snow in some locations. The second storm on Sunday may bring more snow to the region.

SPRING SNOW

I really thought we would end the month quietly, but it appears it may go out like a lion. We have a pair of storms forecast to impact southwestern Quebec starting Friday, along with much colder temperatures. The first system will deliver a steady rain and strong winds Friday, with as much as 35mm of rainfall. The high will drop down to 9C (48F), with overnight lows Saturday morning near the freezing point. Even with the heavy rainfall, I am not expecting any flooding at this time as it has been a very dry month to date. Only 9.8mm of precipitation has fallen at Trudeau Airport. The rain will taper off to a few showers or perhaps even some flurries by Saturday morning. We will have a brief break Saturday afternoon before the second system arrives.

A second potent storm will move across the Great Lakes and close to Montreal late Sunday into Monday. Computer models have been having a difficult time with the exact track of this storm. The European model is even hinting at a decent snowstorm for parts of our region. At this time, I am leaning towards a warmer solution, with mostly rain for the city. We are expecting another 15-20mm of rain, however that may change depending on the actual storm track.

We can expect some wet snow as well at the onset of the precipitation. Parts of southern Quebec, especially north of Montreal, may see a significant wet snow event. Temperatures will be much colder Sunday, with a high of 4C (39F) expected. Overnight lows will likely drop to near the freezing point.

Conditions should begin to improve late Monday, with temperatures closer to normal.

It looks like a tranquil end to winter in Montreal

A massive winter storm dumped nearly 70cm (27 inches) of snow on Denver, Colorado last weekend. It was the fourth largest storm in that cities history. The snow closed the airport and numerous highways across the state and into neighbouring Wyoming and Nebraska. The storm was expected to being some snow to our region, but will now pass well south of Quebec on Friday. (Colorado State Patrol)

Astronomical spring officially arrives at 5:37AM Saturday morning, along with very mild weather. March has been a tame month all around, and it appears it will remain that way right to the end. I am not saying it is not possible to get a sneaky snowfall or two between now the end of April, it usually happens, but for now no major storms are on the horizon. Dare I say winter may be over! March to date has been extremely dry, with only 7.4mm of rain and 2.2cm of snow. The long-term average is 29.7mm of rain and 36.2cm of snow for the entire month.

Skies are clearing Thursday afternoon, as high pressure moves into southern Quebec. It is expected to remain in place through at least next Wednesday. A strong late winter storm, responsible for several feet of snow in the US Rockies last weekend, is sliding well south of Quebec today and Friday. As mentioned the storm produced record snowfall, and at least two dozen tornadoes Wednesday across portions of the central and southern US. The low will move off the east coast Friday, brushing parts of eastern Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, with snow and blowing snow.

As high pressure arrives in Montreal, we can expect breezy conditions and cold temperatures on Friday. Lows will be around -13C (9F) in the city, with daytime highs around -1C (30F). Gusty northwest winds up to 40km/h will make it feel even colder. The cold weather will be short-lived. Temperatures will warm quickly on Saturday, with a high of 8C (48F). Looking ahead, Sunday through next Tuesday will be mainly sunny and very mild in Montreal, with highs into the double digits reaching 15C (59F). 

SPRING FLOODING?

With very light precipitation this month as mentioned, and the relatively slow thaw we have been experiencing, water levels around southern Quebec are stable at the moment. There is no immediate threat of flooding. However that could change as river ice melts or if we have significant precipitation. So for the time being have your flood plan ready, and remain vigilant. The Quebec Government has an excellent resource page HERE. It is also advised at this time that you remain off any ice, as the spring thaw is well underway across southern Quebec.