Rain changes to snow today in Montreal

Expect snow covered roads in Montreal by late today as temperatures drop below freezing.

Up to 5cm of snow is possible this afternoon into this evening across eastern Ontario and the St. Lawrence Valley. Rain will mix with and change to snow by 1pm in Montreal. Roads will become slippery as temperatures drop well-below freezing by the evening hours.

When I first started writing about the weather around the age of 10 or so, I would issue a first snow alert to my family and friends. The idea was that the snow, while not really a storm, was the first of the season, and would bring along with it the usual problems on the roads. So consider this your "first snow alert."

Our first measurable snow of the young season is on our doorstep this Friday morning. Weakening low pressure will move from the Great Lakes into New England, while a second area of low pressure develops and moves into Maine. A strong cold front will sweep across southern Quebec by the noon hour, bringing in the coldest air so far this fall.

Rain is currently falling in advance of the cold front. The rain will mix with and change to snow in the Ottawa Valley this morning and gradually across our region from west to east this afternoon. Expect 2-5cm for metro Montreal, with 10-20cm across the highest elevations of the Eastern Townships.

On the US side of the border, heavy snow is expected in the Adirondacks and Green Mountains, where winter storm warnings have been posted. Over 30cm is possible at the highest elevations. This will be an elevation dependent storm so from the valley floors up, amounts will increase.

Once the snow ends in Montreal tonight, the weather will turn blustery and cold. Expect northwest winds of 30-50km/h combined with a forecast low of -5C (23F), to produce windchills in the minus teens. Saturday will be cloudy, blustery and cold, with flurries and a high of only -4C (25F).

The sun will return on Sunday, but temperatures will remain chilly, with a high of -2C (29F).

First measurable snow of the season on the horizon for southern Quebec

The first accumulating snow of the season is expected late Friday and Saturday across southern Quebec. Roads are expected to become snow covered and slippery as temperatures drop below freezing Friday evening in Montreal, with rain changing to snow. The snow will end Saturday morning, with 5 to 10cm possible.

It is looking more and more likely that the first measurable snow of the season will fall across southern Quebec this upcoming weekend. This system has been on the weather models for several days now, showing up as early as last week. However, as with all potential winter storms, the devil is in the details, and that is often hard to pin down here in the St. Lawrence Valley. That being said, here is my best guess at our first snowfall.

High pressure will be in place for Wednesday and early Thursday, with fair skies and fairly cold temperatures. Overnight lows will be the coldest of the season so far, dropping down to -7C (19F) by Wednesday morning, and rising to 1C by late afternoon. Milder air will arrive on Thursday, with daytime highs going above the freezing point to 4C (39F). That mild air intrusion will remain in place in Montreal through mid-day Friday, assuring us a rainy start to the potential storm.

An upper level low is forecast to move across the Great Lakes and south of Montreal, accompanied by a rather strong cold front on Friday. Precipitation will start late Thursday persisting into Friday morning, and likely starting as rain. As cold air filters into the St. Lawrence Valley on Friday, precipitation should change to snow by late in the day. I think this will be a relatively light storm for valley locations, with a better chance for significant snowfall across the higher elevations, especially in the Eastern Townships and Green Mountains.

Low pressure will move south of Montreal this weekend, with the first snow of the season expected for portions of southern Quebec. (AccuWeather)

At this time, 5-10cm of snow is possible for metro Montreal through Saturday morning. Winds will become rather gusty as well, along with dropping temperatures. All in all, driving should be less than ideal Friday night. The snow should taper off to flurries in Montreal on Saturday, with a chilly high of -1C (30F). Snow will persist south and east of Montreal on Saturday.

I will post an update as the forecast becomes a little more precise.

Historic flooding slams British Columbia and Washington

Major flooding has swept the Lower Mainland and Fraser Valley of British Columbia after torrential rain fell on the region. Above, the Reliable Towing crew from the Discovery series Highway Through Hell were helping first responders rescue residents in Merritt. All 7200 residents were forced to evacuate on Monday after major flooding swept the city.  (CBC) 

An atmospheric river of moisture streaming across the Pacific Ocean slammed into B.C. and neighbouring Washington state early this week dropping historic amounts of rainfall. Over a stretch of 48 hours as much as 290 mm (11.5 inches) of rain fell over portions of Vancouver Island and the Lower Mainland. Over 20 individual all-time rainfall records were broken. Hope reported 295mm, Coquihalla Summit 238mm, Squamish 206mm and Malahat on Vancouver Island 182mm. The torrential rain liquified the soil creating mudslides and pushed numerous rivers over their banks. 

Major flooding occurred along The Malahat on Vancouver Island after nearly 200mm of rain in 48 hours. The highway was reopened Tuesday afternoon to alternating traffic. (BC Transportation)

Widespread, historic flooding has occurred, with every major highway connecting Vancouver to the rest of Canada closed due to washouts and mudslides. The Trans Canada (1), Crowsnest (2), Coquihalla (5) and Highway 99 are all closed at this time. First responders had to rescue hundreds of trapped motorists, many spending hours in the dark on ever shifting roadways. Sadly one fatality has been reported so far, a female motorist who was swept away in a mudslide on Highway 99. The fear is that the death toll may climb as numerous vehicles are reported in that slide.

Widespread flooding has been reported, especially in the hard-hit Fraser Valley. Hope, Merritt and Abbotsford have all ordered evacuations for many of their residents. Thousands of homes have been inundated. Flooding is also reported south of the border in Washington State. Interstate 5 had to be closed at Bellingham.

Both CP Rail and CN have reported damage to their respective tracks, with no train movement at this time between Kamloops and the busy Pacific ports.

The same storm produced blizzard conditions across southern Saskatchewan on Tuesday, with dozens of highways forced to close stranding travellers. (Regina Leader-Post)

The storm bombed out over Saskatchewan on Tuesday, producing howling hurricane-force wind gusts and blinding snow. Swift Current on the Trans Canada Highway reported a gust to 113km/h, with 11 hours of blizzard conditions and visibility under 1km. Dozens of highways were closed in the province, with near-zero visibility reported on area roads. The airport in Regina was forced to cancel all flights at 3pm Tuesday. The Regina Leader-Post newspaper cancelled home delivery on Wednesday morning.

Stormy weather pattern in place through the end of November

A clipper type low pressure system from western Canada delivered the first snowfall of the season for many portions of Ontario and Quebec on Sunday and Monday. Above, several centimetres of snow fell overnight in Saint-Jérôme, Quebec. (MeteoMedia Photo)

A series of storms are progressing across the country to start the week, delivering heavy rains, strong winds and snow to many regions. Starting here in southern Quebec, an Alberta Clipper delivered the first snow of the season for many late Sunday and into the wee hours Monday morning. Wet snow fell in portions of the Ottawa Valley as well as north of Montreal through the lower Laurentians. Several centimetres accumulated in places like Saint-Jérôme overnight. The air was just too warm in the St. Lawrence Valley for snow, however close to 8mm of rain did fall overnight at my home on Ile Perrot.

As colder air moves across the warmer waters of the Great Lakes, bands of heavy lake effect snow are expected to develop downwind across parts of Ontario Monday. Snow Squall warnings have been issued for Perth and Huron Counties, but some snow will extend outside the warning areas as well. A few flurries are still possible in Montreal on Monday, with a high of 5C (41F) forecast. More wintry weather is likely by late Tuesday and Wednesday in Quebec, with the chance for mixed precipitation before warmer air arrives briefly on Thursday.

As todays system slides off to the northeast, multiple fronts and areas of low pressure will arrive every other day in Montreal, bringing an unsettled mix of rain and snow to the region. By Friday a strong cold front will arrive accompanied by heavier precipitation and gusty winds. The unsettled and stormy weather pattern will persist right through the end of the month. I am seeing the potential for a big storm system on or about November 25, but as always, the devil is in the details, so stay tuned.

Torrential rain, widespread flooding and mudslides have closed several major highways across southwestern sections of British Columbia including the Coquihalla shown above. Over 100mm of rain fell in the Fraser Valley Sunday, with more forecast Monday. (B.C. Transportation)

Meanwhile a strong Pacific storm produced torrential rain on Sunday across coastal B.C. and into interior sections. The rain, in some cases over 100mm, has produced widespread flooding. Numerous highways are closed due to mudslides and flooding including the Trans Canada and the Coquihalla from Merritt to Hope. According to B.C. Transportation, both Highways 1 and 5 have been breached in several locations, and no estimate can be given as to when the routes may be reopened. First responders are working to free many motorists who are now trapped on the closed roads.

The City of Merritt has declared a state of emergency, with several evacuations ordered. Flood warnings have been posted due to the combination of heavy rain and melting snow. Numerous rivers are at or have exceeded flood stage across southwestern British Columbia.

As the storm lifts across the Rockies, heavy snow and fierce winds gusting over 100km/h are forecast for portions of Alberta and Saskatchewan through Tuesday. The heaviest snow will be across central regions, with the strongest winds along and south of the Trans Canada Highway.

Colder weather returning to southern Quebec

A spectacular early sunset Monday afternoon in Montreal. With the move back to standard time last Sunday, the days are terribly short with the sun setting at 4:30 today. Thankfully the weather has been bright and sunny.

We are coming to the end of another spectacular stretch of fall weather in Montreal. Temperatures have been above normal, well into the teens, along with abundant sunshine and no precipitation. We can expect one more day of pleasant weather Thursday, however temperatures will be cooler, with overnight lows near 0C (32F) and a daytime high of 8C (47F) on Thursday.

High pressure has been in control of our weather, with the heavier cloud cover and any precipitation remaining south of our region. That will change as the week comes to an end. Strengthening low pressure over Manitoba will slide into the upper Midwest and then across the central Great Lakes into the weekend. This system will provide southern Manitoba and northwest Ontario with the first snowstorm of the season. Heavy snow is forecast across those regions from Thursday into the weekend. Between 10 and 20cm are expected across southern Manitoba, with 20 to 40cm in northwest Ontario, west of the storm track. The snow will also spread into neighbouring portions of North Dakota and Minnesota.

As the storm deepens, howling winds are forecast across the upper midwest and Great Lakes. The storm will remain well north and west of Montreal, lifting a warm front across the St. Lawrence Valley late Thursday, followed by a potent cold front on Friday. A period of gusty winds and steady rain is likely Friday, before temperatures begin to drop heading into the weekend. Behind the cold front, below freezing temperatures are expected in Montreal for overnight lows, with daytime highs in the low single digits starting Sunday. There is a chance of some light snow or flurries overnight Sunday into Monday, but no accumulation is anticipated at this time for Montreal.

Another low pressure area is forecast to develop along the east coast early next week, but remain well southeast of Montreal. Temperatures are expected to remain below normal well into next week.

The 30th anniversary of The Perfect Storm

Massive waves smash into the coast in Scituate, Massachusetts in late October 1991. The Halloween Nor'Easter or Perfect Storm as it would later be called, was responsible for 13 deaths from Newfoundland to North Carolina, and over $200 million dollars in damage. (WBZ)

This week marks the 30th Anniversary of one of the strongest unnamed storms to impact the eastern seaboard. The hybrid system was the coming together of strong low pressure located east of Nova Scotia, hurricane Grace moving northward from the tropics and a cold front sliding off the New England coast. The end result was a powerful ocean storm that developed on October 28 and persisted into early November 1991. I knew the system as the Halloween Nor'Easter, but it would later be referred to as "The Perfect Storm".

What made this storm so unusual was the huge area upon which its impacts were felt. Towering waves spread along the coast from Newfoundland to Puerto Rico.  The toll on the marine community was significant with several vessels lost or damaged at sea, and many others destroyed in port. The Coast Guard conducted hundreds of rescues, including the crew of a New York Air National Guard helicopter that ditched into the Atlantic after running out of fuel. Sadly one crew member was lost at sea.

No loss was more infamous than that of the Andrea Gail, a 72 foot commercial sword fishing boat out of Gloucester, Massachusetts. The Andrea Gail and her crew of 6 would disappear approximately 290 kilometres northeast of Sable Island, Nova Scotia on October 28 at around 6pm. An exhaustive search by both the Canadian and US Coast Guard would only turn up scattered debris but little else. At the time of the sinking, seas were a record-breaking 30 metres high (100 feet) in the area where the Andrea Gail was last reported, and across the Scotian Shelf. The story of the Andrea Gail would later be told in a best selling novel by author Sebastian Junger called The Perfect Storm. The book was adapted into a movie in 2000 staring George Clooney.

The Halloween Nor'Easter was the coming together of several key ingredients into a once in a lifetime storm. The unnamed storm would have likely been a hurricane if naming criteria was then as it is today. It was National Weather Service Meteorologist Robert Case, when interviewed several years later, who described the system as "The Perfect Storm". (Accuweather.com)

Along the coast, the storm was ferocious, with 25 to 30 foot waves crashing into homes and businesses. Hundreds of homes were destroyed, many others were left uninhabitable. Coastal infrastructure including roads, piers and ports were destroyed. Widespread power outages were reported, with wind speeds exceeding 100km/h. Coastal New England was particularly hit hard. I visited the New Hampshire and northeast Massachusetts coastlines in November 1991, shortly after the storm hit. Major damage was visible everywhere. Another hard-hit are was the Outer Banks of North Carolina. Several hundred homes were damaged or destroyed and roads were closed by water and sand accumulation. I had been on the Outer Banks during the third week of October 1991, and just missed the storm.

As October turned to November, the storm was not finished, strengthening into a post-tropical cyclone and slamming into Nova Scotia on November 2. The Perfect Storm hit Atlantic Canada hard, with flooding, wind damage, power outages and over 100cm snow in Newfoundland. Widespread damage occurred, several boats were destroyed and power was out in large portions of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland.

By the time the storm moved away from North America, the death toll was 14, including 1 in a weather related traffic accident in Canada, with damage estimates exceeding $200 million.

NOAA Satellite image of "The Perfect Storm" located south of Nova Scotia on October 30, 1991

Wet and windy Halloween in Montreal

The steady rain should taper off to showers in time for trick or treating Sunday evening in Montreal. Temperatures will hold steady between 8C and 10C.

Deepening low pressure will lift from Cape Cod northwest towards Sherbrooke this Halloween, spreading rain into southern Quebec and extreme eastern Ontario. The rain will be steady, if not heavy at times, with an additional 25mm forecast for Montreal. Around 15mm has already fallen across southern regions of the province since midday Saturday. I am still hopeful that the heaviest precipitation will lift off to the northeast by 6pm, allowing for trick or treating in Montreal. In terms of temperatures, they should remain steady for most of the day around 10C (50F), dropping to 8C (48F) by 6pm.

The evening won't be perfect for the kids, showery at times, damp and cool, but nothing they can't handle. Halloween has taken a beating over the last three years, with the Mayor of Montreal cancelling it in 2019 due to poor weather (although we has nearly 100 kids in the rain and wind on Ile Perrot), followed by the Covid nonsense in 2020 and now more rain this year. We are certainly ready with our treats for the ghosts and goblins, but not really sure what to expect.

I do remember how exciting Halloween was as a kid growing up in the 1970s. I will tell you one thing, the weather never stopped us. 

Looking ahead to Monday, a cold front will slide across the St. Lawrence Valley accompanied by a shower or two, and strong west winds up to 60km/h. Temperatures will hold steady around 9C (49F) Monday before dropping do 5C (41F) by Tuesday morning.

There remains the chance for some light snow flurries midweek across our regions, as colder air settles into Ontario and Quebec.

Powerful Nor'Easter hammers New England

A tree lies across a car in Duxbury, Massachusetts after a powerful early season Nor'Easter delivered winds in excess of 75mph to the region. Over 330,000 residents remain without power Thursday morning, including entire communities. (WBZ)

Residents of coastal New England are cleaning up on Thursday after the first Nor'Easter of the season hammered the region on Wednesday with hurricane-force winds and towering waves.

Winds remain gusty across southern Quebec early Thursday morning, in response to high pressure moving in form the northwest and strong low pressure moving out to sea east of New England. The Nor'Easter produced wind gusts up to 60km/h (37 mph) on Wednesday in Montreal.

The storm was much more impactful across coastal regions of New England, with heavy rain and hurricane-force winds reported. Winds gusted between 75 and 100 mph (119 to 160km/h) in many communities from southern Maine to Rhode Island. Hundreds of trees came down, many onto homes and vehicles. Over 500,000 residents were without power at the height of the storm on Wednesday. Nearly 330,000 remain without power Thursday morning, with dozens of schools closed for a second straight day.

A small aircraft sustained serious damage after being tossed by the wind in New Bedford, Massachusetts on Wednesday. (WBZ)

Thirty foot waves pounded the shoreline, with some roads closed due to flooding. The storm also produced 25 to 100mm (1-4 inches) of rain across the region. Officially just under 15mm fell in Montreal, as we remained on the far western edge of the storm system.

The storm in question developed early in the week off the mid-Atlantic coast, before rapidly intensifying southeast of New England. The system become a weather bomb, with the central pressure dropping more than 24 millibars in less than 24 hours.

The stormy weather pattern is expected to persist, with another system arriving on Saturday. Rain is forecast this weekend in Montreal, likely tapering off to scattered showers in time for Halloween. 

A strong cold front is expected to arrive by next Wednesday, with the possibility of accumulating snow for some portions of southern Ontario, Quebec and northern New England.

Stormy weather pattern developing across North America

While we await our first taste of winter here in southern Quebec, the weather is turning stormy in other parts of our region. Wet snow greeted motorists across the highest elevations of northern New Hampshire on Monday morning. (New Hampshire Department of Transportation)

October can be a month of transition as we head into winter. So far, the weather has been a rather tame in Montreal compared to previous years. While we flirted with the freezing point this past weekend in Montreal, we remain frost and snow free to date. Weather patterns are beginning to change across North America, and we are seeing more major storm systems developing.

The upcoming week will certainly turn more stormy over eastern North America, with several systems impacting the region. Low pressure over the Great Lakes will move south of Montreal, while a second stronger storm system develops off the eastern seaboard. The second system will produce very heavy rain and strong winds across portions of New England, but the worst of the weather should remain south of Montreal.

A strong Nor'Easter, the first of the season, is forecast to develop early this week southeast of Long Island. Montreal will remain on the northern edge of the storm, with gusty northeast winds and showers. Temperatures will be rather chilly to start the week. (AccuWeather.com)

Showers are forecast today into Tuesday across southern Quebec, with perhaps 15 to 20mm of rain, far less than what was expected 24 hours ago. Chilly northeast winds will develop on Monday and persist into Tuesday, gusting at times to 60km/h in the St. Lawrence Valley. Temperatures will be chilly, remaining in the single digits through Tuesday, and perhaps reaching 12C (54F) by Wednesday.

Another potent storm system is expected to arrive by Friday, with more rain and wind expected into Halloween. I am hopeful at this time that the precipitation should taper off in time for trick or treating in Montreal.

The current storm is expected produce very heavy rainfall and wind gusts over 100km/h for portions of coastal New England. Some snow was even falling Monday morning across the highest elevations of extreme southeastern Quebec, northern Maine and New Hampshire. Power outages and coastal flooding are anticipated. The stormy weather will spread into far eastern Quebec and Atlantic Canada by mid-week.

A series of powerful west coast storms are delivering heavy rain and hurricane force winds to parts of the Pacific northwest and British Columbia. The energy from those systems will eventually fuel new storms over the central portion of the continent to end October and start November.

First frost of the season on the horizon for Montreal

A frost warning may be required for metro Montreal for Saturday night.

The onset of the cold weather has certainly been slow across eastern Canada this fall. Southern Quebec experienced another mild day on Wednesday, with high temperatures in the middle to upper teens across the region. Trudeau Airport registered a high of 18.2C (65F), well above the long-term average of 11C (52F) for the date. We are already at 13C (55F) Thursday morning. This trend will persist for another day or so before a potent cold front arrives on Friday.

Ahead of that front, we can expect scattered showers Thursday, with a period of steady rain and perhaps a rumble of thunder late tonight and into the wee hours Friday morning.  On Friday, Montreal will have a noticeable change in the airmass, as temperatures drop into the upper single digits by afternoon, along with a gusty west wind up to 40km/h. Clouds will persist with perhaps a sprinkle or two.

Skies will be partly cloudy throughout the weekend, along with seasonable temperatures. If skies clear out completely Saturday night into Sunday morning, there is a very good chance that Montreal will have the first frost of the season. The overnight low is expected to drop to the freezing point in the city and below in the suburbs. The average day of the first frost in Montreal is October 5.

Beyond the weekend, seasonable temperatures are expected next week, with no major storms on the horizon at this point.

Strong cold front to bring an end to the warm weather in Montreal

A return to reality...

Much cooler, fall weather will return this weekend to southern Quebec. High temperatures on Sunday will only be in the low teens.

Temperatures have been running well-above normal this week across southern Quebec as our warm and dry fall weather persists. The morning low on Thursday was only 16.8C (61F), which established a new record for maximum low temperature that dates back to 1970 (15C). Montreal has had no frost as of today, which places us well behind the last couple of years and certainly short of the average date of October 5. Looking ahead, we should make it to end of the month in the Montreal metro region with no frost or freezing temperatures.

That being said, we will see a dip in the temperatures and a return to more seasonable weather for mid-October. Dirty high pressure has been in control of our weather this week, with plenty of low level moisture, humidity and cloud cover trapped at the surface. The result has been a very warm, but rather gloomy week, with just a few breaks and even some mist or drizzle at times.

Over the next 24 hours a warm front will lift across the region, accompanied by showers. On Saturday, a strong cold will approach the St. Lawrence Valley during the early afternoon, accompanied by steady rain and even a few embedded thunderstorms. At this time rainfall amounts look to be significant, with up to 30mm in Montreal, and locally in excess of 50mm across portions of eastern Ontario and southwestern Quebec. The weather has been a very dry this month, with only 8.2mm of rain to date.

The front will also usher in much colder air. High temperatures will be either side of 21C (70F) today and Saturday, but dip into the single digits by Sunday morning. The high on Sunday and Monday, with lingering clouds and showers will struggle to reach 10C (50F). Overnight lows will return to reality, dropping to 4 to 6C (39 to 43F).

The front will also produce a period of gusty southwest winds on Saturday, backing to the northwest late in the day, between 40 and 60km/h in Montreal.

Record warmth in eastern Canada - snow out west

Portions of several Interstates were closed on Tuesday afternoon, stranding travelers from Montana into Wyoming and South Dakota. The snow spread into southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba late Wednesday. Meanwhile the weather has been warm in eastern Canada, with highs in the middle 20s and overnight lows warmer than the long-term highs for the date. (Montana Department of Transportation)

A large ridge across the eastern portion of the country is providing Montreal and most of southern Quebec and Ontario with unseasonably mild fall weather. Thanksgiving weekend was spectacular, with just a few clouds and sprinkles Sunday but otherwise very warm and pleasant. Temperatures have been in the low to middle 20s, a full ten degrees above average. Tuesdays high temperature of 23.8C (74F) at Trudeau Airport was just one tenth of a degree away from the record high set in 1961. Several new high temperature records were established from New Brunswick to Ontario.

The mild weather will persist into Saturday before the arrival of a potent cold front. Temperatures will remain mild throughout that time frame, with highs in the low 20s, and overnight lows in the middle teens.

By Saturday the aforementioned cold front will arrive in Montreal with and increase in clouds, windy conditions and some heavier showers. The wet weather will persist into Sunday along with much cooler temperatures, only near 12C (54F) for a high. Overnight lows will drop into the single digits to start next week.

Western Snow

While the east has been warm, the first taste of winter has arrived across the west. Strong low pressure moving from Colorado to Manitoba, has produced a swath of heavy wet snow. Between 30-60cm of snow fell across portions of Wyoming, Montana and far western South Dakota. Travelers were left stranded as numerous highways were closed including Interstate 90 from Rapid City, South Dakota into Wyoming.

The wet snow also spread into portions of southeast Saskatchewan and southwestern Manitoba on Wednesday, with up 2 to 10cm possible. A special weather statement has been issued for those locations for low visibility in falling snow as well as icy and potentially snow covered roads. On Thanksgiving Day, light snow fell across the foothills of Alberta as far east as Calgary. The western storm is forecast to lift into northern Ontario while weakening. 

No snow is on the horizon for Montreal.

Above normal temperatures set to return to southern Quebec

It was a rainy weekend in Montreal, with a decent amount of precipitation falling in many locations around the city. Trudeau Airport for some reason only measured 7.2mm through Sunday evening, while just a few kilometres to the southwest, 18mm fell in Sainte-Anne-de-Bellevue with 27.8mm on Ile Perrot.

It was a rather chilly, raw weekend in Montreal, feeling very much like the start of October. Saturday was a wash out, with almost 25mm (1 inch) of rain falling across portions of southwestern Quebec. The weekend total was only 7.2mm at Trudeau Airport, but I seriously question that measurement, as most other stations around the area recorded amounts in excess of 15mm. I measured 27.8mm for the weekend on Ile Perrot, with 29mm at St Anicet and 18mm at Sainte-Anne-de-Bellevue. A private weather station at the Baie d'Urfe Yacht Club recorded over 30mm Saturday alone.

Monday will be cloudy and rather cool, with clearing skies sitting just to our north. Seriously you can see the blue skies, just look to the north they have been sitting there for over 24 hours now. The frontal boundary that brought the rain is slowly sinking south over New England this morning. Skies should begin to clear out later today, along with warming temperatures. The balance of the week will feature warm and dry weather, with highs expected either side of 20C (68F). As a matter of fact, the first two weeks of October are expected to have warmer than normal temperatures. The average high for early October is 15C (59F) and the low 5C (41F). Montreal should remain well above those values right through Thanksgiving weekend. There is no risk of frost at this time.

Feeling a little more like fall

September has been absolutely spectacular in Montreal. The fall colours are now beginning to pop as well around the region.

Our streak of 20C September days came to an end Sunday, after a record-breaking 24 straight, we reached only 19.9C (68F) at Trudeau Airport. However the weather was still spectacular this past weekend, with any hint of precipitation remaining well to our east, and the upper level low staying put over the Great Lakes.

The end result was dry weather over southwestern Quebec, with just an isolated sprinkle or two over eastern Ontario. The heavier rain fell over New Brunswick and Maine, with 70mm in Edmunston and 55mm at the Gaspé Airport on Sunday. 

That aforementioned upper level low will slowly drift over our region early this week, with more clouds than sun and isolated showers finally arriving with it. Precipitation amounts will be on the light side for Montreal. Temperatures will remain mild for late September, rising into the high teens Monday. Overnight lows will remain above normal as well, in the 11C to 13C (52 to 55F) range.

High pressure will become reestablished over the region by Wednesday, with dry weather forecast into next weekend. Temperatures will become more seasonable, with highs between 17C and 19C (63 to 66F) and overnight lows between 7C and 9C (45 to 49F). 

The five day forecast track for hurricane Sam, keeps the storm well offshore of the eastern seaboard. The storm may impact Bermuda later this week, and perhaps Newfoundland by the end of next weekend.  (NHC)

Hurricane Sam

The tropics have been very active this September, with multiple named storms forming. Thankfully, most have remained in the open waters of the Atlantic. Sam is a powerful category 4 hurricane Monday morning, located 1290km east southeast of the Leeward Islands. The storm is moving northwest at 13km/h, with 215km/h winds. Sam is forecast to remain a strong storm for the next day or so before some weakening occurs. At this time, Sam is no threat to land, but the system may impact the coastal waters southeast of Newfoundland by next weekend, with perhaps some weather affecting the Avalon region by late Sunday or early next week.

Perfect Saturday weather - showery Sunday for Montreal

The sharp break in the clouds marks the western edge of a stubborn cold front that has been moving across Ontario and Quebec since Wednesday. The front cleared Montreal early Friday morning after dumping 30 to 40mm of rain overnight. (ValleyWeather Photo)

That had to be one of the slowest moving frontal boundaries I have witnessed in my 40 plus years of weather watching. The front took the better part of three days to move from central Ontario into eastern Quebec. Before the front arrived in Montreal, we were treated to a summer-like day Thursday, with a high of 29C (85F), one degree below the record set back in 1961. The low of 20.3C Thursday morning was the warmest minimum recorded for the date.

The cold front produced a steady north south stream of tropical moisture that dumped very heavy rain over parts of Ontario and Quebec. Flooding was reported in several regions of Ontario, with over 150mm (6 inches) of rain reported at Petrolia. Amounts ranged from 50 to 152mm in Ontario, and 30 to 140mm in Quebec. Windsor reported 99mm, Toronto 62mm and Ottawa 48mm. In Quebec, Gatineau measured 90 to 130mm, the Laurentians 90 to 140mm and Montreal 30 to 40mm.

The rain is over, replaced by a breezy, pleasant Friday afternoon. High pressure will nose into the region overnight resulting in clear skies and low of 13C (55F). Saturday will be a spectacular day, featuring light winds, fair skies and a high of 21C (70F). Make that your day for any outdoor activities, as an upper level low is expected to arrive Sunday and control our weather through the first part of next week. The weather will be showery and cooler, with daytime highs in the middle teens.

Our unseasonable warm September continues, with a high of 21C (70F), Friday marks the 23rd consecutive September day over 20C, adding to the record established earlier this week. The previous record was 19 days, set between September 9 and 27, 2007.

Heavy rain expected to remain west of Montreal

Montreal lies between two weather systems on Wednesday afternoon, high pressure over Atlantic Canada and a strong upper level low over the Great Lakes. Heavy rain is forecast across Ontario along a slow moving cold front, while Southwestern Quebec will remain relatively dry and very mild for late September.

Summer weather persists across southern Quebec Wednesday afternoon, despite the arrival of fall just a few minutes ago. A slow-moving cold front remains well to our west over central Ontario. That front is the focus for torrential rain and thunderstorms. Widespread rainfall warnings are in effect from the Windsor - Toronto corridor into the Ottawa Valley. Some locations are expecting in excess of 100mm (4 inches) of rain over the next 24 to 36 hours, with flash flooding possible

Meanwhile southern Quebec remains on the east side of the system, with a mild southerly flow, and temperatures well-above normal into the middle 20s. The weather has been exceptionally warm this September, with every daytime high over 20C at Trudeau Airport through Wednesday. This is the first time this has occurred since weather records began in Montreal. The average daytime high through Tuesday has been  22.9C (73F), the normal value should be only 20.6C (69F). We have one more warm day to go before the aforementioned cold front arrives.

The front should begin producing rain and scattered thunderstorms late Thursday into Friday in Montreal. Less rain is expected in southern Quebec as the front will be moving at a faster pace across our region. Expect up to 25mm through Friday morning.

The weekend at this time appears a little more fall-like, with cooler high temperatures expected in the upper teens. A few showers are likely as well by Sunday.

Near-perfect late summer weather

The harvest moon will light up the evening sky on election day Monday, rising at 7:55pm in Montreal The Autumnal Equinox occurs Tuesday at 3:20pm. eastern time, heralding the end to summer 2021. The weather will be as perfect as it can possibly be for late September in southern Quebec and Ontario.

Fall officially arrives on Wednesday afternoon at 3:20pm eastern time, and with the exception a few high clouds, summer will end with near-perfect weather. There really is not much to add, strong high pressure is in control of the weather across eastern Ontario and southern Quebec and into Atlantic Canada. Expect clear, warm days, with increasing warmth and gusty winds as the week moves along.

A weak front settled across the region early Saturday morning, but as with just about every cold front this summer, it moved across Montreal with little fanfare, just a drop or two of moisture. Skies quickly cleared out leaving us with a beautiful day, and a high temperature of 24C (76F). 

As a matter of fact, 24C looks like the magic number this week. Expect sunshine through Wednesday and perhaps even into Thursday, with high temperatures either side of 24C. Overnight lows will start off fairly cool, in the upper single digits for some locations, as I write the current temperature is 11C (52F) here on Ile Perrot. By the middle of the week, overnight lows will be very mild under southerly winds, in the upper teens. The normal high/low for late September in Montreal, is 18C (65F) and 8C (48F).

Last Wednesday morning, a line of strong thunderstorms put down a quick 10 to 20mm of rain across the city. However conditions remain rather dry, with only 38.2mm of rain falling this month at Trudeau Airport. The normal for the entire month should be 89mm. The longer nights does mean there is dew present most mornings, which is helping a little.

The next chance for precipitation will arrive by Thursday as a frontal boundary and upper level low move across the Great Lakes and into Quebec. We can only hope this system brings some real rainfall.

Hurricane Larry racing towards Newfoundland

A NOAA satellite image of hurricane Larry located southeast of Nova Scotia and south of Newfoundland Friday afternoon. (NOAA)

Hurricane Larry is expected to make landfall across southeastern Newfoundland late Friday evening. The once category 4 hurricane has been roaming the open waters of the Atlantic for over a week. Larry, now a category 1 hurricane with 130km/h winds, was located 750km southwest of Cape Race, Newfoundland at 2pm Friday afternoon. Larry was racing north, northeast at 60 km/h.

A hurricane warning is in effect for the entire Avalon Peninsula through Saturday morning. Tropical storm warnings are in effect across the Clarenville, Burin and Bonavista regions. Larry is a large hurricane, with hurricane force winds extending outward up to 150km from the center. Forecasters expect the worst of the weather in southeast Newfoundland, including St John's around midnight, lasting through 5AM Saturday morning. Wind speeds are expected in the 110km/h range with gusts up to 140km/h along coastal regions. Winds this strong are capable of knocking down trees and power lines, along with some structural damages. Residents are being urged to prepare for a strong storm through the overnight hours and expect widespread power outages.

Hurricane Larry will rapidly approach the Avalon Peninsula Friday evening while transitioning into a powerful post-tropical cyclone. The center will move towards Greenland on Saturday. (NHC)

Storm surge flooding is possible as well, with large waves accompanying Larry as it races northeast into the north Atlantic. Swells from Larry are already impacting coastal regions from North Carolina to Atlantic Canada. Rainfall from Larry will not be as significant as originally expected due to the rapid movement of the storm, with 30 to 50mm forecast.

Larry is expected to remain a hurricane through landfall tonight and then begin the transition into a strong post-tropical cyclone over the Labrador Sea on Saturday.

Much needed rainfall across southern Quebec

While recent rainfall is helping, water levels remain very low along the St. Lawrence River. This photo was taken last Thursday in Lachine showing just how low the levels are. The lack of rainfall this summer has created difficult and at times dangerous boating conditions in the rivers and lakes around Montreal. (ValleyWeather)

Since September 1st, approximately 25mm (1 inch) of rain has fallen at Trudeau Airport including just under 4mm today. That amount would not be news-worthy, except for the fact that only 36mm fell on the city during the entire month of August. The rain has been a blessing, helping to green things up a little and increase water levels just a touch on area rivers and lakes.

An absolutely spectacular photograph of a waterspout moving inland near Port Albert, Ontario. The photo was taken by storm chaser Mary Ann Williams on Tuesday afternoon. Widespread severe weather impacted southern Ontario along a cold front. @Stormymaryann

A slow-moving cold front is crossing southern Quebec Wednesday afternoon, accompanied by showers and a rumble or two of thunder. That same front produced widespread severe weather in the Huron-Perth and Grey-Bruce regions of Ontario on Tuesday afternoon. There were numerous reports of waterspouts on Lake Huron, as well as tornadoes and hail from Port Elgin to Saugeen Shores. Significant damage was reported to several homes, as well as numerous trees felled and widespread power outages. The front will once again kick up some strong thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon, but only south and east of Montreal across the Eastern Townships and into Vermont. 

We have an unsettled pattern ahead of us in southern Quebec, with a mix of clouds and sunshine Thursday and Friday and the risk of isolated showers or thunderstorms. Friday will be much cooler and dare I say fall-like, with high temperature struggling to reach 18C (65F). Saturday looks pleasant, with a high of 23C (73F) under sunny skies. Clouds and showers return for Sunday.

The forecast track of hurricane Larry will take the center near or over the Avalon Peninsula of southeast Newfoundland late Friday, with winds in excess of 120km/h. (CHC)

Hurricane Larry

Hurricane Larry was located 855km southeast of Bermuda early Wednesday afternoon, moving northwest at 20km/h, with 175km/h winds. Larry is expected to transition into a powerful post-tropical cyclone as the centre nears the Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland late Friday afternoon. At this time the center is expected to pass near or over southeast Newfoundland, with a period of strong winds, heavy tropical rain and storm surge. Wave heights may reach as much as 15 metres in the Grand Banks. Swells from Larry are already impacting the US eastern seaboard and will arrive in Atlantic Canada over the next 24 hours. The swells and surge are creating very dangerous surf conditions along coastal beaches.

The Canadian Hurricane Centre continues to monitor the progress of Larry, and will likely issue warnings sometime Thursday for portions of southeastern Newfoundland.

Historic flooding sweeps northeast US

Historic tropical rain fell on portions of the northeast Wednesday night, including New York City where widespread flash flooding occurred. Central Park set a new record, with 75mm (3.15 inches) of rainfall in just one hour. The previous record was set just last week during tropical storm Henri. (Anthony Behar/CNN)

After devastating the Louisiana Gulf Coast, what was left of hurricane Ida swept across the northeastern US on Wednesday, with historic flash flooding and tornadoes. The severe weather was responsible for at least 8 deaths in the metropolitan New York region and  neighbouring New Jersey. The water came fast and furious, with 125 to 225mm (5-9 inches) of rain falling in just a few hours.

The record setting tropical downpour had nowhere to go, with neighbourhoods flooded and homes swamped. Highways flooded rapidly and the New York City subway came to a halt in partially submerged tunnels trapping commuters. First responders were forced to make numerous rescues. A state of emergency has been declared in both New York and New Jersey.

Earlier in the day powerful thunderstorms produced large tornadoes over portions of Maryland and southern New Jersey. Numerous communities were impacted, with several homes destroyed. The death toll from Ida sits at 16. 

What is left of the system is located near Cape Cod early Thursday morning, moving northeast towards Nova Scotia. Rainfall warnings are in effect for portions of Atlantic Canada, with 40-60mm forecast along with embedded thunderstorms and gusty winds.