Wednesday, April 11, 2018

Challenging weekend forecast may bring snow and freezing rain to Quebec

A stationary front will be the focus of heavy precipitation over the weekend. The front will also represent the dividing line between very warm air to the south and more cold weather here in Montreal. (
A very difficult, complex forecast period lies ahead for portions of southern Ontario and Quebec. Wednesday will likely be the best day of the week, with sunshine and fairly mild temperatures. Clouds will increase this afternoon, as a week clipper system crosses the region. We may have a few spotty showers or flurries along with the cloud cover.

On Thursday, a second weak area of low pressure will follow a similar path across southern Quebec, with light rain expected. Skies will briefly clear on Friday, before the real fun begins. A sharp frontal boundary will position itself across portions of central New York State and New England. North of the front, cold weather will prevail, with temperatures at or slightly below freezing. South of the front, temperatures will surge into the low to middle 20s.  The big question is where will the front settle? As the front meanders across the region through the weekend, strong low pressure will approach from the Midwest US. The storm will be packed with moisture. A mix of heavy wet snow, freezing rain, rain and thunderstorms is expected to develop on Saturday from the central US towards the Great Lakes, Ontario and Quebec. The potential exists for a significant freezing rain event for many, as well as heavy wet snow in some locations. Heavy rain will cause sharp rises in rivers and streams increasing the concern for flooding.

At this time amounts and type of precipitation are very difficult to nail down. One thing is certain, we will have a decent amount of precipitation, perhaps in excess of 50mm (2 inches) through Sunday night. Strong winds are also likely with this storm. Weather watches and warnings will likely be necessary for a portion of our forecast region as the event draws closer. Stay tuned as this will be a fluid event with a highly changeable forecast.

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