|Snow will change to rain once again across Quebec and New England.|
Despite the differences between the Global and European weather models that help with the forecast, it appears the upcoming winter storm will leave Montreal on the warm side of its path once again. As was the scenario last Wednesday, a difference of 100 kilometres can be the difference between snow or rain. At this time, it looks like the heaviest snow will fall in a swath through central Ontario near Lake Huron, north and east across the Pontiac region of Quebec and well to the north of Montreal. Temperatures will rise from -1C (30F) Wednesday afternoon in Montreal, over the freezing point and up to 4C (40F) by Thursday morning.
Low pressure is forecast to develop over Texas today and slowly move north and east towards the Ohio Valley while strengthening. Currently the storm is forecast to move down the St. Lawrence Valley on Thursday. Along with this system will be a surge of moisture and warm air into southern Quebec. After a cloudy day today, the chances for light snow will increase on Wednesday along with gusty winds up to 50km/h. The snow will accumulate up to 5cm in Montreal before mixing with and changing to freezing rain and eventually plain rain by late Wednesday night. In Montreal the rain will continue into Thursday and may be rather heavy at times. There is still some uncertainty concerning the exact track of the storm, but it is becoming quite likely we will see more rain than frozen precipitation here in Quebec.