Heatwave heads north and east

The heatwave that has held the US in most of its grip for the last month will spread northeast into New York, New England, Ontario and Quebec. Excessive Heat Warnings are in effect along the east coast from New York south. High Heat and Humidity Warnings are in effect for most Metro areas in eastern Ontario and Quebec.

Expect hihgs on Tuesday and Wednesday to be between 33C and 37C or very close to 100F in Toronto, Ottawa, Montreal, Watertown, Rochester, Syracuse and Ogdensburg. Factor in the humidity and it will fell like 42-45C.

Drink plenty of water and avoid heavy outdoor activity tomorrow and Wednesday. Some relief will move in to northern areas late Wednesday and Thursday.

Very warm and muggy today we are currently at 29C in Kemptville but the humidex feels like 37C.

Yesterday's rain totals from 4 different thunderstorms:
Morrisburg 67mm
Kemptville 60mm
Ottawa 32mm
Winchester 23.8mm

Below is a scene repeated across some areas of Eastern Ontario as Hydro 1 crews work on lines.

Storms, storms and more storms
The "bubble" that has been protecting Kemptville from any big thunderstorms this summer let go last night. It took a very week cold front moving into marginally warm air that would trigger our first round of storms around 3:00 am. The storms produced spectacular lightning and about 2-3mm of rain. Sporatic power outages occured.

This would set the stage for more severe weather today. At least three separate lines of storms crossed the Rideau Valley heading south. In all over 50mm of rain fell this afternoon in both my rain gauges. There was ponding of water in many areas but no damage was reported. Lights flickered all afternoon and power was disrupted in some areas.

More storms are expected on Thursday across Eastern Ontario in the warm and humid air as highs approach 30C.

Tropical Storm Beryl
heads for Nova Scotia

• The northern edge of Beryl is beginning to affect the southern coast of Nova Scotia as well as New Brunswick. Forecasters are expecting the storm to dump over 50mm of rain in the area along with gusty winds. This is the second named storm of the young Atlantic Hurricane season, we had 5 at this time last season. The storm will rapidly lose its tropical nature as it moves northeast into the Atlantic Ocean.

• Beryl brushed across Eastern Massachusettses with rain and wind but nothing more than that last night.

• It was hot this week in Kemptville. I recorded a max temperatures of 36C on Monday. The official reading was 33C at the MNR building.

• Hydro workers in Ontario continue to restore power to the more than 100,000 customers that lost it from Lake Superior to the Quebec border on Monday. The thunderstorms lashed the area with 100km/h plus winds and heavy rain. Two tornadoes were reported in New Market and numerous trees, some as old as 100 years, were flattened on Manitoulin Island. One death was reported from Monday's storms in Ontario.

• Glasgow, Montana did not reach 90F on Wednesday marking the first day since July 4 that it failed to do that. It was the 5th longest stretch of 90 degree plus weather since records began. The area along with most of western Canada and the Pacific Northwest will remain under intense heat again this week with temperatures approaching 100F (37C) in many areas.

• The Kemptville "bubble" remained in place last night. While many areas continue to see thunderstorms, parts of the Highway 43 corridor from Merrickville to Kemptville continue to miss out. The storms part as they approach the area going north into Ottawa or south into New York State.

High heat - smog and humidity
The weather in the east has become extremely hot and humid. A smog warning is in effect for most of southern Ontario. Very poor air quality has also resulted in an Air Stagnation Advisory for the northern counties of New York State. A High Heat and Humidity Warning has been posted for southwest Quebec.
As of 4pm, Kemptville had reached 32C with a Humidex value in the dangerous range at 42C. Brockville had a reading of 43C to be the highest in the province. Montreal was at 32C. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is now in effect for most of eastern Ontario. Heavy Thunderstorms are possible in the tropical air through tonight as a cold front presses east.

Viva l'Italia
...siamo fieri di voi senso andare l'Italia

Hot weather returns
Big changes in the east are expected over the next several days as very warm humid air streaks into Ontario and Quebec. Temperatures will be from 27-30C right into next weekend. A few thunderstorms are expected as well. It has been a wild stretch of weather lately. Severe thunderstorms in Ontario this week caused flooding and toppled some trees. The Kemptville area was spared for the most part with the exception of a strong storm late Tuesday that brushed the area. The winds were strong enough to tear branches from some trees and the parting storm left a rainbow behind(above).

In addition to the storms in Ontario, two confirmed F-1 tornadoes were reported in New Brunswick. Today smoke from the forest fires in the northern Prairies and Rockies is drifting east into the eastern part of the country. Satellite images show the smoke stretching up and down the eastern coast.

The photo below is one I took on Friday, May 26, 2006 on the Outer Banks of North Carolina. It is a lightning strike illuminating Pamlico Sound near Avon, North Carolina.

Severe Weather likely today in Kemptville

This has just been issued by Environment Canada......
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUED For Kemptville BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA BULLETIN ISSUED AT: 10:55 AM EDT THURSDAY 29 JUNE 2006 CONDITIONS ARE FAVOURABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. THIS IS AN ALERT TO THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS..LISTEN FOR UPDATED STATEMENTS. IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES TAKE IMMEDIATE SAFETY PRECAUTIONS.

Death toll at 9 in east coast floods
Two more deaths were added to the growing total from severe flooding from the Carolinas to Ontario. The latest flood deaths were along a stretch of I-88 near Binghampton, NY. Yesterdays rains amounted to several more inches in the water logged northeast. In Kemptville 25mm fell, most of that in an afternoon deluge. Over 65mm fell in the Gatineau Hills and across the Laurentians.

More thunderstorms are developing this afternoon with the threat of more heavy rain a reality.
Flood warnings and watches remain in effect for portions of New England the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic.

Tropical Rains continue along Atlantic Seaboard...

The heavy tropical rains that have inundated the US East Coast are now spreading into Ontario and Quebec. Heavy rain with embedded thunderstorms are lining up across eastern Ontario at this hour. The area can expect up to 50mm of rain this afternoon and tonight.

More is on the way.....the rain has flood watches and warning stretching from southern Quebec into Georgia. The DC area was hit hard yesterday with close to a foot of rain. Roads were washed away, trees toppled and basements flooded. The National Weather Service will be investigating low pressure southeast of the Outer Banks that could become a tropical depression at anytime. it will continue the endless southeast flow of warm and moist air into the Appalachians and eastern Canada.

Post-Tropical Alberto
batters Nova Scotia

Here is the latest update from Environment Canada....


WOCN31 CWHX 151800
Post-tropical storm Alberto information statement issued by the canadian hurricane centre of Environment Canada at 3.00 PM ADT Thursday 15 June 2006.
The next statement will be issued by 9.00 PM ADT
... The intense storm that formed from Alberto batters Nova Scotia...

1. Current position, strength, central pressure and motion
At 3.00 PM ADT... Post-tropical storm Alberto was located near Latitude 42.6 N and longitude 63.9 W... About 120 nautical miles Or 220 km southeast of Yarmouth. Maximum sustained winds are Estimated at 55 knots... 102 km/h... And central pressure at 970 MB. Alberto is moving east northeast at 25 knots... 46 km/h.

2. Forecast position, central pressure and strength
Date time lat lon MSLP Max wind
ADT MB kts kmh
Jun 15 3.00 PM 42.6N 63.9W 970 55 102 post-tropical
Jun 16 3.00 AM 45.4N 57.8W 976 55 102 post-tropical
Jun 16 3.00 PM 48.6N 51.8W 986 45 83 post-tropical
Jun 17 3.00 AM 52.0N 42.3W 990 40 74 post-tropical

3. Public weather impacts and warnings summary Heavy rain and storm force winds continue buffeting portions of Nova Scotia as the storm system passes by south of the province.
Rainfall accumulations in excess of 10 mm per hour were reported Over western Nova Scotia this morning while winds along the atlantic coast of western Nova Scotia were gusting to more than 100 km/h.
The atlantic storm prediction centre is maintaining wind and heavy rain warnings for portions of Nova Scotia and will be issuing a wind warning for portions of southern Newfoundland. Details can be found in the bulletins issued by the atlantic storm prediction centre.

4. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary The atlantic storm prediction centre is maintaining storm and gale warnings for many maritime and Newfoundland marine areas and will Be extending the storm warnings to areas south of Newfoundland.
Details can be found in the bulletins issued by the atlantic storm prediction centre.

5. Technical discussion
A. Analysis
For continuity we are continuing to refer to this storm as post- tropical Alberto however it has no tropical chartacteristics left when looking at the satellite signature. It is simply a mature extratropical cyclone. The fact that it is this deep in June is Quite rare and likely owes its strength... In part... To the ripe ingredients that it ingested from Alberto overnight.
The storm continues deepening this afternoon with a central pressure In the low 970S at forecast time. The gem initialized too high...
As did other models... However all models recognize that an intense low is in maritime waters.
Dry air has wrapped around the low and significant convection has been evident for many hours just north of the low. Lightning continues being reported west of the low centre over the marine district.
B. Prognostic
The gem regional appears reasonable regarding the track and pressure Tendency for central pressure... Apart from initializing too high.
Between a good satellite and marine data fix on the low centre at 15Z and the gem prog we are content to maintain a similar track to what we issued earlier.
C. Public weather
Nova Scotia rainfall totals up to 17Z include 41 mm at Lunenburg and Western Head.. And 38 mm at Yarmouth. The strongest coastal winds Reported have been peak winds of 119 km/h at Baccaro Point...
Marginal hurricane force. We expect that 40-60 mm rainfall totals will have occurred by the time that this system is in the books.
D. Marine weather
Storm force winds at the Georges Bank buoy were reported well behind the storm so it continues deepening. Wave heights also reached 7 m At that location before they started dropping. A very tight gradient behind the storm is being exaccerbated by strong isallobarics so storm force winds should be expected both ahead of and behind this system for at least the next 12 hours.

Tropical Depression
Alberto hits Carolinas

The storm that was Alberto continues to hit the Tar Heal State with heavy rain and wind. Tornado and High Wind Warnings are in effect for the Outer Banks and most of Eastern North Carolina. Heavy flooding is being reported in parts of the state as over 8 inches of rain has fallen. The storm will move back out over the Atlantic tonight and will affect the Maratimes later tomorrow and Friday.

An update on the conditions expected in Canada follows from Environment Canada......


Post-tropical storm Alberto information statement issued by the canadian hurricane centre of Environment Canada at 3.00 PM ADT Wednesday 14 June 2006.

... Alberto now post-tropical...
Public weather impacts and warnings summary Inland warnings have not yet been issued for the Maritimes or Newfoundland...But they may be required for Thursday or Friday.
Heavy rain associated with post-tropical storm Alberto is expected To move into Nova Scotia on Thursday and Newfoundland on Friday.
While it is too early to warn of specific amounts similar storms In the past have given rainfalls in excess of 50 mm. The speed of this weather system and its proximity to the coast will play a large role in the rainfall amounts and this will continue to be monitored closely.
As in previous forecasts the current track would keep the stronger winds away from most inland regions of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland except for portions of the Avalon Peninsula on Friday.

Marine weather impacts and warnings summary Although Alberto is now a post-tropical system and has winds below gale strength it is expected that it will reintensify as a significant frontal low bringing gales through all southern waters Thursday or Friday.
Gale warnings issued by the atlantic storm prediction centre remain In effect for the Nova Scotia marine areas of Browns Bank.. Georges Bank.. Southwestern shore.. Lahave Bank.. West Scotian Slope..Eastern shore.. Sable.. East Scotian Slope.. Banquereau.. And Laurentian fan. Gale warnings will also likely be required for most southeastern Newfoundland waters on Friday.

Alberto Crosses Florida
Tropical Storm Alberto is in the process of crossing Florida this morning. The good news is that damage appears to be limited. The heavy rain has been beneficial for the state as they have been battling a series of grass fires of late. A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Big Bend area of the west coast of Florida, while a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Daytona north towards the SouthCarolina border.

On Monday fears were that the storm would rapidly increase in strength, but luckily the storm stabilized. Evacuations were ordered in the low country along the west coast. Most of the weather is located along the eastern flank of the storm and is stretching from northeast Florida along the Georgia and Carolina coasts. Winds will gust in those areas over 50mph and 3-5 inches (75-150mm) of rain is possible along the track of the storm.

Alberto will brush Canadian waters later in the week. It looks like a rain maker for Nova Scotia and Newfoundland.

Alberto gaining strength

AT 10 AM CDT...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA FROM LONGBOAT KEY TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER.

The centre of Tropical Storm Alberto is a little northwest of the forecast track and is now expected to hit the big bend area of Florida before moving along the Atlantic coast towards North Carolina. All interests along the southeast and Florida coasts should continue to monitor this storm. NOAA Recon have found winds near 70mph just to the east of the center, and Alberto could become a Hurricane later today. You just never know with these storms that is why they demand so much respect.

Alberto heads for Florida
As with the 2005 season, 2006's season has started early. An area of low pressure west of Cuba has moved into the Gulf of Mexico and become the first tropical system of the seaso. Alberto is a minimal tropical storm with 50mph winds this morning. While the storm will be a big rain maker for the Florida peninsula it is not expected to reach hurricane status at this time. The storm is forecast to drift across the state today and tonight before moving into the Atlantic Tuesday. It will then take aim at the Carolinas. At this time the worst of the weather may remain offshore for the Outer Banks.

I have just returned from two weeks on Hatteras Island in Avon, NC, so I am really hoping the dire predictions for this Hurricane season do not materialize. The island is 50 miles long by 1/2 mile wide and is 25 miles from the mainland. It has a rich history of storms, most recently Ophelia in 05 and Isabel in 03.

In any event rain and gusty winds are occurring across Florida's west coast this morning. Winds have already gusted to over 60mph in squalls along the coast. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the west coast of the state including Tampa Bay. More info can be found at www.hurricanecity.com

The next update will be around 4pm today......

Flooding Spreads West
Build your Ark. No joking, the flooding rains that have been occurring in eastern New England are spreading west. Another stubborn low pressure area will move up the Atlantic Coast today spreading heavy rain, 25-50mm with embedded thunderstorms into Eastern Ontario and Northern NY. A Flood Watch is posted in the US. Some areas in Ontario...in our area, have had close to 2 inches of rain in the last week, 7 straight days or rain and showers!. The ground is still accepting the water, but area waterways are filling and water speeds are increasing. Keep this in mind this Holiday weekend if you plan on being in or on the water. The weekend will be a washout in Ontario and Quebec. Sorry to say.
Our first thunderstorms of the season spread north across North Grenville last night with lightning and 15mm of rain. All area parks in the City of Ottawa are closed until further notice because of the soggy ground.

Will the rain ever end?

Heavy rain continues to fall around a deep upper level low over the Great Lakes. The storm has persisted over the area since last Thursday. Since Thursday, North Grenville has had over 35mm of rain. While this seems impressive, portions of the Merrimack River Valley in New Hampshire and Mass have reported over 300mm (12 inches). The heavy rain has resulted in the worst flooding in New England in close to 70 years, since the Hurricane of 1938. One death has occured. Damage is in the millions. While the rain has lightened in New England, heavy showers and thunderstorms continue to spin around the low over Quebec and Ontario. A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect for southwestern Ontario this afternoon. No relief is expected into the weekend.


Heavy Rain in Kemptville
- Tuesday night.

Heavy Rain for Ontario....

A stubborn upper level low will rotate throughout the Great Lakes this weekend - very slowly. As a result a cold rain with embedded thunderstorms will dump 30-50mm of rain from Windsor to Montreal through Saturday. Gusty southwest winds will reach speeds of 60km/h near the Great Lakes. It will be nasty and cool along much of the eastern coastline. Further south heavy thunderstorms will stretch from Texas to the Carolinas.

http://www.weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/warnings/SWS_bulletins_e.html?prov=on

Winter Weather in parts of
Saskatchewan and the Dakotas

While the east continues to enjoy what has amounted to a very early spring, (it is currently 19C in Kemptville), the west is dealing with a potent late winter storm. The system is currently in Montana sliding eastwards. It has a wide area of very heavy precipitation, that for the most part is falling as rain. However areas along the Manitoba/Saskatchewan border south of the Trans Canada and along the Montana/Dakotas border are expecting heavy wet snow. Blizzard Warnings are in effect in eastern Montana while a general Weather Warning is in effect for Southeast Saskatchewan. 100km/h winds could accompany the precipitation.



The heavy rain in the Dakotas is expected to only add to the flooding misery in the Red River Valley of North Dakota and Manitoba. The picture above shows Interstate 29 just south of Pembina and the Manitoba border.

In the east warm dry weather has lead to the issuance of a Fire Weather Watch for upstate NY. Low relative humidities combined with dry warm southwest winds may lead to a serious grass fire threat. Last week several fires were reported again in Leeds and Grenville. Be very attentive to any outdoor burning.

Eastern Ontario/Western Quebec
Severe Weather Outlook

This is the first of what I hope will be daily updates regarding the risk of severe thunderstorms within our area. Time and life aside, I will post these every morning and update them when severe weather is expected. Also updated US warnings and discussions are available at this link: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Today: There is a slight risk of convective thunderstorm activity around Western New York and southwest Ontario close to Lake Erie from Hamilton to Windsor. In Eastern Ontario gusty winds to 50km/h and a few sprinkles are expected with perhaps a rumble of thunder.