Monday, November 05, 2012
First snow for Montreal?
It was a chilly and raw weekend as the remains of Sandy finally drifted northeast of our region and back out over the Atlantic. On the back side of the system a cold northwest wind has capped the temperatures just above freezing with windchill values well below that and the occasional sprinkle or flurrie. It is a rude reminder that we are in November, far removed from the record high of last Tuesday. Skies have cleared a little this morning with temperatures responding and well below freezing in most areas. It is -1C here on L'Ile Perrot with -3C in Ottawa. Today looks rather quiet with sun and clouds mixing, but cool highs no better than 3C (38F). It will be cold tonight with lows as cold as -5C in the metro areas and even colder off island. Tuesday will be fair and chilly, the last decent day of the week with highs only at 2C (36F).
Forecasters and computer models are showing a very active weather period about to start from Wednesday into the end of the work week. Low pressure is expected to develop at the surface off the coast of North Carolina by late Wednesday and deepen rapidly as it moves northeast. Let me make it clear, this will not be a Sandy, but a typical Nor'easter. That being said these storms pack a punch and can do damage especially to a weakened power grid and a duneless coastline. Sandy has left the middle Atlantic and New England coast exposed and susceptible to beach erosion, flooding and storm damage once again. With 2 million residents still without power and heat, there is great haste and concern this week.
The storm is expected to impact southern Quebec, eastern Ontario and New England as well. Precipitation in the form of rain and snow will develop late Wednesday and continue into Thursday. It will be quite windy out of the northeast in Montreal, likely over 60km/h. At this time 15-25mm of precipitation is forecast (up to one inch, the most southeast, and the least northwest of Montreal). As always with storms in November, timing the arrival of the precipitation means everything. We may be looking at several centimetres of wet snow or perhaps freezing rain for some of our areas overnight Wednesday. This will become more clear as we get closer to the event. I will update this blog often as well as my Facebook and Twitter accounts.