Saturday, November 23, 2013

Coldest air of season moves into Montreal tonight

A strong arctic front over Ontario this morning will arrive in the St. Lawrence Valley by late this afternoon accompanied by a quick burst of snow and strong winds. Some localities may receive as much as 5cm of snow from Ottawa to Montreal as the front moves through. Roads may be icy and visibility lowered during the frontal passage. Temperatures are cold this morning around -3C, we may gain a degree or two but not much more. Tonight the mercury will drop to -7C with strong west winds over 50km/h and cold windchill readings. On Sunday it will be windy and cold with some of the coldest November air in the last 20 years in place. It will stay around -7C and drop to -14C overnight into Monday. That is a full 10 degrees Celsius below normal. Snow squalls are likely around the Great Lakes from Ontario into New York. Warnings are in place.

Wednesday Snowstorm?
Our concerns then will turn towards a US system that is expected to move across the Gulf Coast states and US Southeast before moving into the Atlantic Ocean near Virginia Beach. Both the European and Global models both pick up this feature but do very different things with it. One scenario has it hugging the coast northward into New England as a very strong coastal storm. This would of course mean a storm with lots of precipitation and wind for Montreal. The other has a track further out into the Atlantic with no precipitation for Montreal. I am watching this closely this weekend and will provide further updates.

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