Rare January Tropical Storm

Subtropical Storm Alex south of the Azores this morning. (NHC)

A very rare event has taken place in the Atlantic Ocean, a tropical system in January. For the first time since 1978, we have a named tropical system, Alex. The storm is actually subtropical, not exhibiting a warmer core like it would in August or September, but the system is still potent. This morning, Alex is located 560 miles south southwest of the Azores. The storm has intensified overnight and now has 70 mph winds. Alex is moving north northeast at 18 mph and should approach the Azore Islands later tonight and Friday. Heavy rain and storm-force winds are likely before the storm races off towards Greenland and loses any tropical characteristics. The formation of such a storm in January shows us just how much El Nino has affected the weather patterns.

Montreal Weather
After a little light snow today and a chilly high of -10C (14F), we can expect a quiet day Friday before temperatures warm up for the first half of the weekend. Weak low pressure will approach southern Quebec this weekend with perhaps a period of light snow or mixed precipitation Saturday. I don't expect a big storm, perhaps 5cm, but like this past Tuesday, the system will be weakening as it approaches Montreal, so amounts may be less. We are also watching a coastal storm developing near North Carolina, but it appears this storm will remain well offshore and not affect southern Quebec. Temperatures will warm up Friday and Saturday, perhaps reaching 0C (32F), before cooling off Sunday and the early part of next week.

A New Hampshire State Police officer was injured on Tuesday after a Canadian trucker failed to slow down or move over striking his patrol car on Interstate 89. (New Hampshire State Police Photo)

During the snow and squalls on Tuesday, numerous accidents were reported across Ontario and Quebec, as well as the northeast US. One accident on Interstate 89 near Warner, New Hampshire involved a truck and a New Hampshire State Police car. The truck, from Canada, failed to slow down or move over striking the car and injuring the officer. The truck then fled the scene. The vehicle is described as a semi with a dark cab and white box-type trailer, with Canadian plates. They did not say which province. Anybody with information is asked to call the New Hampshire State Police at 603-271-3636.

Up to 10cm of snow forecast for Montreal and Ottawa

Snow will advance into southern Quebec today. (AccuWeather)

This is just a brief update on the clipper system about to affect southern Ontario and Quebec. Light snow is advancing this morning across Ontario and will arrive in Ottawa by 10am and Montreal by the noon hour. This is not a big storm, clipper systems originate from the Prairies, so they are usually starved of moisture. The Great Lakes gives them a little kick, but in this case the system is weakening. It will morph into a big storm for the Atlantic provinces once it reaches the coast later tonight and strengthens rapidly.

Montreal can expect light snow through the afternoon and into the overnight with 5 to 10cm possible. Gusty winds, up to 40km/h, will likely cause some blowing snow, especially outside of the city. The snow will be enhanced a little as you head down the 401 towards Kingston. While there are no weather warnings on our side of the border, a winter weather advisory is in effect for the US side of the St. Lawrence River including Massena, New York. Keep this in mind if your travels take you onto the highway today. Temperatures will be cold with a high of -5C today dropping to -11C tonight.

Next Storm
We are watching a complicated forecast for this weekend that could include a significant snowfall for Montreal on Saturday. Twin low pressure ares will impact the region, but the exact track at this time is up in the air. Stay tuned!

Windstorm ushers in arctic air

Strong winds helped to topple the brick facade of two buildings in downtown Montreal late Sunday night. (CBC News)

  After a warm and wet weekend, Montreal awoke to a windy, much colder landscape this morning. A strong storm moved across the Great Lakes on Sunday pushing a cold front across the St. Lawrence Valley. Heavy rain over the weekend helped to melt some of the snow pack, with close to 20mm falling in Montreal. Powerful winds accompanied the front, gusting up to 100km/h in parts of eastern Ontario, Quebec and Atlantic Canada. The peak gust a Trudeau Airport in Montreal was 93km/h late last evening. The wind cut power to nearly 60,000 homes in Quebec and also toppled two brick walls in downtown Montreal. Power outages were also reported in Ontario and upstate New York.

It was not only metro Montreal, but a large portion of Quebec was affected by the strong winds. This tree was toppled in Arvida. (Radio Canada)

The cold front also brought a quick end to our warm weekend. The temperature fell from a near record plus 7C (45F) last evening to -7C (19F) in about 12 hours. A few flurries accompanied the colder air but luckily the wind dried most surfaces sparing us from a rapid freeze. It is winter weather for the foreseeable future with cold air and snow for the balance of the week. A clipper type low pressure area will sweep out of western Canada on Tuesday and cross the Great Lakes into the St. Lawrence Valley. After a cold overnight low of -14C (7F) in Montreal, snow will develop by noon and last into early Wednesday morning. At this time we are expecting 5-10cm locally in the region. Gusty winds will also accompany the snow, so expect some lower visibility starting tomorrow afternoon. Skies will clear out Thursday, but it will remain cold with a low of -18C (0F) and a high of -11C (12F).

Strong storm to bring back winter to southern Quebec

Another low pressure area and cold front will bring a reinforcing shot of cold air to southern Quebec late Tuesday with perhaps 5cm of snow. (AccuWeather)

HIGH WIND WARNING: Montreal and southern Quebec.

A strengthening low pressure area will move across the Ohio Valley and into the eastern Great Lakes today. East of the storm, mild air along with a surge of moisture will affect southern Quebec and Montreal. Steady rain will start shortly in southern Quebec and last most of the day. Heavy rain warnings have been posted for regions north and west of the city including Ottawa where 30-40mm may occur. Along with the rain will be strong southerly winds. These winds will shift to the southwest this evening in Montreal as a cold front associated with the storm sweeps across southern Quebec. The wind will increase to 60-90km/h with higher gusts likely in some locations. Environment Canada has issued a high wind warning for Montreal and the St. Lawrence Valley.

WINTER RETURNS
The temperature will be very mild today, reaching 8C (47F) by early this evening. However, behind the cold front, it will rapidly turn colder with a low of -5C (23F) expected by Monday morning in Montreal, colder elsewhere. The rain will change to snow overnight with a dusting in Montreal but perhaps a few centimetres across eastern Ontario. Any standing water will freeze making roads and sidewalks very icy. Monday will be blustery and much colder with snow showers and temperatures nearly steady or even falling. It will be much colder this week with lots of clouds and flurries and temperatures remaining well below freezing for Montreal.

Strong winds blowing across the Great Lakes will generate snow squalls this week. The squalls will affect western New York and portions of Ontario. In the most persistent bands of snow 30-60cm (1-2 feet) are possible. Keep this in mind if you are travelling Highway 401 or Interstate 81 and 90.

Windy & wet storm for southern Quebec

After a brief mild spell this weekend, more cold air will arrive for the middle portion of the month.

Environment Canada has issued a special weather statement regarding a storm for this coming weekend. It looks like mostly rain for Montreal.

After the coldest couple of mornings this season, mild air is set to make a return to southern Quebec. We have one more dry day Friday before twin low pressure areas begin to affect the region. The first system arrives late Friday night and into Saturday. A light mix of rain and snow with perhaps some freezing rain will occur with this system, but we are not expecting any significant amounts. Temperatures will be near the freezing point most of Friday and remain steady into Saturday morning before we climb above freezing, at least here in Montreal.

Late in the day Saturday, the second, much stronger storm will begin to move from the mid Mississippi Valley into the eastern Great Lakes. This system will be strengthening as it moves north with a wide area of steady precipitation accompanying the storm. Mild air will also surge into the St. Lawrence Valley, so we are looking at mainly a rain event with as much as 25mm expected. Snow is forecast, but well north of the Laurentians. There may also be some freezing rain north of the city. Winds with this storm could be strong, especially on Sunday. Behind the system temperatures will turn much colder for Monday with any leftover precipitation changing to flurries. Temperatures on Sunday could be as mild as 6C (43F) in Montreal, but dropping to -3C (27F) by Monday morning. Any leftover moisture would freeze rapidly Sunday night.

Coldest morning of the winter in Montreal

The next chance for snow and rain arrives in Ontario and Quebec late Friday and Saturday. This will not be a big storm, but may still affect road travel.

Temperatures this morning across Ontario and Quebec are the coldest they have been since last February. L'Ile Perrot dropped to -22C this morning while Trudeau Airport is at -21C. Ottawa and Cornwall recorded -24C, Mirabel -25C and Sherbrooke the coldest in the region at -28C. High pressure is in control of the weather for the balance of the week with much needed sunshine and moderating temperatures. The high today will be a chilly -12C but temperatures will remain steady tonight or slowly rise as southwest winds develop. The high on Wednesday will be a mild -2C.

Our next chance for significant weather will arrive by late Friday or Saturday as a developing storm moves into the Great Lakes. This will not be a big storm, but we can expect a period of snow and rain with perhaps some freezing rain in some areas. Precipitation amounts at this time will likely be in the 5 to 10cm range with perhaps a few millimetres of ice or rain. A second more significant storm is possible later in the weekend and to start next week, but medium range computer models are having a tough time with the forecast, and there are just two many scenarios to mention more than that at this time. Further into next week colder air will return to southern Quebec, with the chance of another storm by late next week.

Arctic air arrives Sunday

The coldest air of the season so far arrives in Montreal late Sunday.

Happy New Year, 2016 marks the 37th year I have been recording the weather in Montreal. It is also the 11th year I have been blogging. Thank you for stopping by, I appreciate each one of you taking the time to read and comment.

A strong cold front will cross southern Quebec on Sunday ushering in the coldest air of the season. Temperatures have been hovering around the freezing point since our snowstorm on Tuesday. That will change late Sunday as temperatures fall rapidly along with snow squalls. The front will arrive in Montreal by early afternoon with temperatures falling to -15C (5F) by Monday morning. On Monday skies will become partly sunny, but it will be cold with a high temperature around -13C (9F) in Montreal. Monday night will be the coldest night so far this winter with lows near -18C (0F) in the city but into the minus 20's across the Laurentians and Townships.

As the cold front arrives Sunday, it will be accompanied by a period of steady snow and gusty winds. Up to 5cm is possible along the front, with road and visibility conditions deteriorating quickly. Keep this in mind if you have travel plans. Many are returning home Sunday, as the holiday period draws to a close. Temperatures will slowly moderate next week through Friday with no precipitation forecast. January at this time looks like an active month with much colder weather and periods of snow forecast. This month will not be a repeat of December.

Winter is here to stay in Quebec & Ontario

The big clean-up is underway after the 40 plus centimetres of snow that have fallen on Montreal over the last 72 hours. New Year's Eve is looking much different in Montreal than Christmas Eve did.

A very happy and healthy New Year to all my readers, family and friends. I wish everyone all the best in 2016. Be good to each other.

Our record warm December is now a memory as winter weather takes hold across southern Quebec. December 2015 will likely go down as the warmest on record for Montreal. The data is not complete, but through December 30th, Trudeau Airport had a daily average high of 4.8C (40F), the normal should be -1.4C (29F). The overnight lows were astonishingly warm with an average -1.2C (29F), the normal should have been -9.3C (15F). Overall we managed a 1.8C (35F) average temperature, with the normal being -5.4C (22F). Oddly enough, even with all that warm air, as a result of the last 72 hours at Trudeau Airport, the city will come close to the December average for snowfall which is 48.9cm. As of late last night we had 47.6cm at Trudeau Airport in Dorval.

More light snow is forecast today, mixed at times with freezing drizzle as we are in a stagnant air mass. Fog has formed as well with some icy spots on area highways. It will be a very mild New Year's Eve with a high near 0C (32F). Mild air will last into the weekend with snow at times through Sunday. While there may be an occasional burst of steady snow, we are not looking at a huge amount, perhaps 5-10cm through Sunday evening. It will be a mild start to 2016 but turn much colder late Sunday with the passage of an arctic front. Overnight lows by Monday morning may be colder than -18C (0F) for the first time this winter. While we may see some milder days in January, the trend at this time looks much colder with temperatures finally settling back to normal values.

After the record warmth - record snowfall?

From spring to mid-winter in a weekend. Heavy snow falls on L'Ile Perrot Tuesday afternoon. (ValleyWX Photo)

Depending where you were across the island of Montreal and Laval on Tuesday, you may or may not have broken the 24-hour snowfall record for December 29th. The record for the date was 30.5cm set in 1954. According to Environment Canada's website, 39cm (15.5 inches) of snow fell at Trudeau Airport, making it one of the top five December storms. However, I measured around 28cm (11 inches) here on L'Ile Perrot, so the validity of the record is in question as far as I am concerned. Winds gusted to over 80km/h in the St. Lawrence Valley, so the exact measurement of the snowfall was difficult at best. Adding to the difficulty was the presence of freezing rain and sleet along the St. Lawrence River, which affected final snow totals from location to location.

Record or not, this has been one bizarre weather month. After being above freezing for the first 27 days of the month, with multiple record highs and only 2-3cm of snow, the last two days have presented mid-winter conditions with lots of ice and snow and biting cold. The storm created numerous delays and cancellations at Trudeau Airport, along with hundreds of accidents on area highways. Holiday traffic was much lighter than normal in Montreal, which helped the traffic flow despite the snow. The cold weather is here to stay with more light snow forecast into New Year's Day. High temperatures will be around 0C (32F) through Friday, with lows down to -8C (18F).

First snowstorm blasts Montreal

Strong winds and snow have turned L'Ile Perrot into a winter wonderland this morning. (ValleyWX Photo)

A winter storm warning remains in effect today for metro Montreal and southern Quebec. Warnings are also in place for eastern Ontario and New England. Snow, freezing rain, sleet and thunderstorms are impacting road and air travel across a wide swath of eastern North America.

Montreal has already measured 10cm of snow overnight as winter has returned to Quebec with a vengeance. Strong northeast winds are blowing the snow around making travel difficult at times. The wind reached as high as 72km/h at Trudeau Airport overnight. Low pressure responsible for this storm is near Lake Huron this morning and will move east across southern Quebec. Snow and sleet will continue most of the day, along with gusty winds up to 70km/h and cold temperatures. Montreal is currently -11C (12F) with a windchill of -21C (-6F). I believe the really mild air with this system will remain south of Montreal. By comparison, Toronto has light rain at 2C this morning.

Expect accumulations in Montreal through this evening to be in the 20-30cm range. Milder air will return on Wednesday with cloudy skies and a high of 0C (32F).

Winter storm warning for Montreal

Winter Storm Warning in effect for metro Montreal, southern Quebec and eastern Ontario. Travel NOT recommended on Tuesday.

The first big winter storm of the season is poised to affect southern Ontario and Quebec starting later today. A potent storm system over the southern US will move towards the Great Lakes while a second storm forms along the east coast. Both systems will push an area of precipitation northward into the St. Lawrence Valley. We had a early taste of winters return on Sunday as snow and freezing rain created slick travel. Numerous cars slid off Highway 10 east of Montreal last evening. Around 5-10cm of snow and ice fell in Montreal Sunday.

Heavy snow and blizzard conditions forced closure of a wide swath of Interstate 40 in New Mexico on Sunday. The governor declared a state of emergency after heavy snow and strong winds left thousands stranded.

After the passage of the first system on Sunday, there is plenty of cold air in place this morning. Monday will be the coldest day of December in Montreal, with the temperature remaining below freezing for the first time this month. We can expect cold north winds and a high of only -7C (20F). Snow will begin overnight in Montreal and become heavy at times by Tuesday morning. The snow will mix with sleet and freezing rain along the US border by noon on Tuesday. Winds will increase from the northeast 30-50km/h in Montreal and Ottawa producing blowing snow. Accumulations will range from 15-20cm in Montreal, up to 35cm north of the city and around 15cm along the New York/Vermont border. Widespread warnings are now in effect across the entire region, unnecessary travel is not advised on Tuesday. The high on Tuesday in the snow will be -5C (23F) in Montreal. Conditions will improve by early Wednesday along with a milder high of 0C (32F) behind the storm.

This same system has been deadly over the last 48 hours. Over two dozen deaths have occurred from blizzards in New Mexico, tornadoes in Texas and severe flooding in parts of Arkansas and Missouri.

Freezing rain and snow as winter weather returns

Freezing Rain Warning posted for southern Quebec and eastern Ontario.

Less than 48 hours after our summery Christmas Eve, winter is making a major comeback. Freezing rain is falling this morning along the 401 corridor from Kingston into metro Montreal. North of Montreal snow and sleet are falling. A wide range of warnings are in effect, so if you plan to travel, do so with great care. For many, this is the first winter weather this season. Temperatures in Montreal are just below the freezing point this morning making for slippery travel. The freezing rain should change to snow today with the temperature steady near -1C (30F). Skies will briefly clear this evening with cold overnight lows near -10C (14F). Another storm will approach southern Quebec for late Monday and Tuesday. I will post more on that weather once today's system clears out.

A terrifying video capture of a deadly tornado in the Dallas metro region late Saturday.

The storm causing our return to winter is an area of low pressure lifting north into the Great Lakes. This system has been deadly with multiple tornadoes occurring Saturday night in the Dallas metro region. At least 11 fatalities were reported, 5 alone in Garland, Texas. Meanwhile in west Texas, New Mexico and Oklahoma, blizzard conditions were reported. Along the frontal boundary associated with the storm, freezing rain is occurring in an narrow band from the southern US plains to the St. Lawrence Valley. Major flooding has been occurring across the Mississippi Valley from this same storm.

Winter returns to southern Quebec and Ontario

Strong winds blew over this bus shelter in Verdun on Christmas Eve. Damage was reported across the island of Montreal and into Laval along with numerous power outages. (Photo Megan Branton)

Today will mark the 26th consecutive day with temperatures above the freezing point in Montreal, and we are likely about to record our warmest December on record. On Christmas Eve, the temperature reached 17C (63F) in Montreal, crushing the previous record of 8.3C set in 1957. It was just 1 degree below the warmest December day ever in Montreal, 18C (65F) set on December 6, 2001. It was as warm as 21C (70F) in St. Anicet and Lancaster southwest of Montreal. Along with the warmth came winds in excess of 90km/h. The winds cut power to over 150,000 homes in southern Quebec, and some still have not had their electricity restored. The gusty winds also toppled trees and knocked over carports and bus shelters. Portions of several downtown streets were closed after debris came off buildings.

WINTER RETURNS
Our attention now turns to the inevitable return of winter. We have two systems that will affect us this week with snow and freezing rain. If you have travel plans, you need to be prepared for winter weather in Ontario and Quebec this week. After a sunny Boxing Day, clouds will be on the increase tonight. A warm front and low pressure system will push clouds and snow into Montreal after midnight. We can expect a good 5-10cm of snow before in mixes with freezing rain by Sunday morning. A freezing rain warning has been posted for eastern Ontario including Ottawa. Travel will be poor tonight and early Sunday across the entire region. Temperatures will be near the freezing point today into Sunday. On Monday high pressure will briefly clear out the region along with the coldest air of the month, a low near -12C (10F) and a high near -9C (15F).

By late Monday and Tuesday, a more complex and stronger system will affect Ontario, Quebec and New England with our first real winter storm of the season. Right now we can expect 10-20cm (4 to 8 inches) of snow, mixed with sleet and freezing rain along the US border. The snow would start after midnight Monday and last well into Tuesday. I will provide more details on this storm in later posts.

Merry Christmas!

Thank you to the wonderful artist, friend and co-worker at the time Vicki, who drew this for me in 2007. You can read about her at this link.

Tornadoes & record warmth

Special Weather Statement for southern Quebec today for winds up to 80km/h.

A strong tornado moves across central Mississippi on Wednesday. (WREG TV)

As expected, Montreal has established a new record high for December 24th at 12C (54F) so far this morning. In fact, we broke the record just after midnight, eclipsing the previous of 8.3C set in 1957. Both Toronto and Ottawa are among hundreds of other locations across eastern North America that have already set new record highs for Christmas Eve, before daylight even breaks.

That is the good news. The bad news is all this wacky warm weather has lead to severe weather across the southern and central US. The last 24 hours have been deadly, with at least 6 fatalities and scores more injured across Mississippi, Alabama and Tennessee north into Indiana and southern Illinois. Strong thunderstorms produced long-lasting large tornadoes. Cars and trucks were blown off interstates and numerous homes were destroyed by the large twisters. One storm in Holly Springs, Mississippi produced massive damage with 4 fatalities. More severe weather is possible today from the Carolinas to Georgia.

The low pressure responsible for this severe weather is lifting north across the western Great Lakes with a cold front sliding into the warm, humid air across the east coast. In Montreal, we can expect showers today with winds increasing to 50-80km/h by this afternoon. Temperatures will warm to 16C (61F) before falling back down to the single digits this evening behind the cold front. Christmas Day at this time looks bright and cooler with a high of 5C (41F).

Montreal Snowstorm Update

What a difference 24 hours can make in the long-term forecast. It now looks like we may have our first winter storm of the season in southern Quebec by next Tuesday. The details need to be worked out and forecast models are presenting several different scenarios. At this time, it looks like we'll have much colder weather with some form of wintry precipitation Tuesday into Wednesday. If you have travel plans play close attention to future forecasts. I will update word on the potential for this storm throughout the holiday weekend.

Warm and windy Christmas Eve forecast for Montreal

New season, same weather. December through the years has provided Montreal with many different types of weather, but none quite like 2015. With at least 3 record highs in the month and perhaps the warmest overnight lows ever for December, it will rank up there as one of our warmest. This is in sharp contrast to previous years including December 2012 shown above. (ValleyWX Photo)

Strong low pressure lifting into the western Great Lakes, along with high pressure anchored off the east coast will provide southern Quebec with the warmest Christmas Eve on record. The record for the date in Montreal is 8.3C (48F) set in 1957, this will be shattered with a forecast high of 16C (61F) expected in Montreal for Thursday. Hundreds of record highs will likely fall from the eastern Great Lakes to Atlantic Canada and down the east coast of the US.

Before then, we have fog and showers to deal with today. Dense fog this morning stretches across southern Ontario into southern Quebec and New England. A fog advisory has been issued by Environment Canada. The fog should lift by the late morning with a breezy, mild day expected and a high of 7C (45F). Temperatures will continue to rise overnight with the record likely being broken before the sun even comes up on Thursday. Christmas Eve will  be very windy with showers and perhaps even a rumble of thunder. Temperatures fall in the evening with lows expected near the freezing point by Christmas morning. At this time Christmas Day looks partly sunny and cooler with a high of 5C (41F), still well above the normal high of -4C (25F).

Storm next week?
We can expect an active and colder weather pattern to begin taking shape early next week. Several stronger winter storms are forecast to develop in the southern US, moving northeast and affecting the the Midwest and Great Lakes. We have several chances for precipitation at this time. It is early, but we may be looking at a snow and rain mix with perhaps and extended period of freezing rain late Monday and Tuesday. It is also possible that the mild air will win over once again and it will fall as rain. I will post much more on that scenario tomorrow.

Warmest Christmas Eve on record for Montreal

We are about to experience the warmest Christmas Eve on record here in Montreal, most of eastern Canada, and up and down the  east coast of the US. (AccuWeather)

I hope you enjoyed our brief taste of winter this past weekend because it is going to turn very warm this week in Montreal. Sunday was the coldest day of December in Montreal with a high of 0.0C (32F), technically not above freezing but still well above normal. That makes 20 days now without a high below the freezing point. Lake effect snow managed to work its way into southern Quebec and New England on Saturday with a trace to 1cm here in Montreal, but up to 5cm south of the city along the US border and into northern New York and Vermont. A rash of accidents occurred as drivers did not adjust to the sudden change in weather. Winds were strong and temperatures much colder than we have experienced.

The brief winter weather this weekend caused numerous accidents, including this one on I-89 south near St. Albans, Vermont. The drivers were not hurt as this Brinks truck hit the ditch. (WCAX TV Photo)

Record warmth for Christmas
It is back to warm weather this week as high pressure moves off the east coast and pumps warm and moist air north into the region. High temperatures today will be around 4C (40F), but warm to 7C (45F) Tuesday and then 15 to 30 degrees above normal by Christmas Eve. The high in Montreal is expected to be around 15C (59F) on the 24th which would shatter the record of 8.3C (47F) set in 1957. All up and down the east coast previous record highs are forecast to tumble. From Washington to New York City, Toronto to Burlington, Vermont and here in Montreal highs will range from 15C to as warm as 22C (60-72F). As a result no snow is expected this week with just some rain today and again Thursday. This will be the second consecutive green Christmas for Montreal. It will not turn colder again until Boxing Day.

Lake effect snow followed by more record warmth

Lake effect snow is falling this morning in Boonville, New York south of Watertown. Heavy snow will produce 1 to 2 feet (30-60cm) in narrow bands downwind of the Great Lakes today into Sunday. Avoid travel south on Interstate 81 from the Thousand Islands to Syracuse today if possible. (NWS Binghampton)

The coldest air mass of December is sweeping across eastern North America this morning with temperatures at or below freezing. Along with the cold air is a swath of lake effect snow and flurries that is impacting portions of Ontario, around Georgian Bay and Lake Huron, as well as the traditional snow belts of western New York. Elsewhere, it will be a chilly and blustery day with northwest winds up to 50km/h in Montreal, and steady temperatures of 0C (32F). A few flurries are possible today with perhaps a dusting of snow in some locations. Closer to lakes Erie and Ontario, 1 to 2 feet of lake effect snow is possible south of Watertown, NY along Interstate 81, as well as south of Buffalo along I-90. Despite the colder air, Montreal already had a high temperature today of 2C (36F), the 19th consecutive day above freezing. On Sunday expect partly cloudy skies in Montreal with early morning lows near -9C (16F) and daytime highs of -1C (30F).

Green Christmas

Very warm weather will return early next week guaranteeing Montreal and the entire region a green Christmas. Temperatures will be well above normal with near record highs of plus 7 to 10C (45 to 50F) forecast by Christmas Eve. Along with the warm air will be the threat for rain on Monday and again by Thursday. Whether it is raining or not, the entire week will be mostly cloudy. The mild air is forecast to last at least until the end of the month in southern Quebec.

Warm weather and rain for Christmas in Ontario & Quebec

More record high temperatures are expected as we head into the Christmas break next week. (AccuWeather)

What more can you say about this month, you are living through what will likely be the warmest December on record for Montreal, dating back to 1871. As of yesterday, the average daily high for the first 15 days of the month was 6.1C (43F), the normal average high should have been -1.4C (29F). The overnight lows are even more dramatic with the first 15 days of this month having an average low of 0.6C (33F), yes above freezing. The normal average low should be -9.3C (15F). Snowfall has been negligible with only 0.2cm recorded at Trudeau Airport. We have spent the last 15 days above freezing during the day and will likely spend the next 16 as well. I see no real threat for cold air or snow until January. We are actually looking at what could be the warmest Christmas period ever for numerous locations in eastern Canada and along the east coast of the US. A white Christmas is unlikely for anybody east of the Mississippi Valley. The snow that fell in Atlantic Canada over the last 24 hours should melt quickly.

We could have been even warmer the last 48 hours, but a stubborn northeast wind in the St. Lawrence Valley held temperatures down around 4C here in Montreal. You did not have to go far south to see record warmth in the low to middle teens. The balance of this week will be mild with rain developing on Thursday as low pressure moves towards James Bay. The weekend will be slightly cooler behind the system with perhaps a few flurries Saturday. The cooler air will be short lived with high pressure pumping more warm air north next week. Temperatures by Christmas Eve could be over 10C (50F) for Montreal. No snow is forecast next week.

Another mild - wet week ahead for Montreal

In this winter of the El Nino, snow is falling in unlikely southern locations such as western Oklahoma (above), while Montreal, Toronto, Buffalo, and Burlington, Vermont have had none. (AccuWeather Photo)

The warning for freezing rain has now ended for metro Montreal, however if you are travelling towards Quebec City or points north and east, it remains in effect.

Expect the same weather for the upcoming week that we had last week in Montreal. A storm system this morning over the central US plains is pushing a warm front across southern Quebec. Warm air will surge into Montreal today with high temperatures eventually reaching close to the record of 9.9C set in 2006 by this evening. It is however a damp and chilly morning here on L'Ile Perrot with drizzle and a current temperature of 2C (36F). Our string of very mild days continues, now at 14, as we have not had a high temperature below freezing since November 30th.

This trend will continue this week with mild air and plenty of rain. Two systems will affect Montreal, the first this evening and then another by Thursday. Steady rain and gusty winds can be expected Monday night into Tuesday morning. By Thursday, more rain is forecast, while in between expect lots of cloud cover with temperatures well above normal. Cooler air and perhaps a little snow will try to move into the Great Lakes, eastern Ontario and southern Quebec behind the second low late Friday.

On Sunday, December 13, heavy snow and blizzard conditions occurred once again in portions of west Texas and Oklahoma. This is the second big winter storm for this area with some locations reporting over 25cm (10 inches) of snow. Snow also fell across interior B.C. into southern Alberta and Saskatchewan where cooler air is now expected right up to Christmas Day.

Freezing rain expected in Ottawa & north of Montreal

Freezing rain warnings have been issued by Environment Canada for most of eastern Ontario, western and southern Quebec.

Environment Canada has issued a freezing rain warning for the Laurentians, Ottawa Valley and eastern Ontario excluding, at this time, metro Montreal and points south to the US border. Up to 10mm of ice is expected in those regions included in the warning.

A warm front lifting across southern Quebec this evening and overnight will produce an area of rain and freezing rain. Temperatures will be marginally cool in Montreal today leading to spotty freezing rain after dark Sunday. Further north and west, there is a greater chance of freezing rain, especially along the north shore of Montreal, into the Laurentians and Ottawa Valley. Travel may be slick in spots tonight. All precipitation should change to rain early Monday from south to north, as temperatures warm well above 0C.

Record high for Montreal

It will remain very mild in eastern Canada through Christmas Day. The storm track will keep the colder air and snow form the central Great Lakes west. (AccuWeather)

Trudeau Airport reached 7.2C (45F) on Wednesday breaking a record established in 1966. As an encore the city reached 9.9C (50F) on Thursday breaking a 63 year old record of 9.4C from 1952. Today will likely be another record breaker as we are forecasting a high of 11C (52F). The record to break is 9.4C, also from 1952. Clouds and perhaps a few showers will be around most of the day along with windy conditions. Southwest winds ahead of a weather system moving across the Great Lakes, will reach up to 50km/h.

Looking ahead we can expect a mild weekend with mostly cloudy skies. A period of rain is possible to start next week with perhaps some freezing rain Monday night. I am not expecting any snow at this time as it will remain very mild. Above freezing temperatures are likely in Montreal right up to at least December 20th. The snow drought continues with only 2.2cm measured at Trudeau Airport for the season. Winter will try to make a comeback in southern Quebec and Ontario between Christmas and New Years with perhaps some snow and colder weather occurring. However, it has looked this way in the extended forecast before this year, only to have the milder pattern win out as we drew closer to the actual date. Of note, if the daytime highs remain above freezing every day in the month of December, this will be the first time this has occurred in Montreal since weather records began at McGill University in 1871.

Near record warmth expected to end week in Quebec

Record warmth is forecast into eastern Canada this weekend. (AccuWeather)

Our very mild December weather is expected to continue into this weekend for Montreal. What is most unusual about this current warm spell is that we are even staying above freezing at night. In the first 9 days of December, Montreal has only been below freezing at night on four of those days. Only December 1st had a low even close to normal at -7C (19F); the normal should be -9C (16F). Daytime highs have been mild, but plenty of low cloud cover have kept the temperatures from breaking any records. That may change Thursday through Sunday, as we can expect highs as warm as 9C (48F). Most of the eastern third of North America will see high temperatures 10 to 20 degrees above normal. Instead of worrying about snow and ice, portions of the central and southern US will be watching out for flooding and severe thunderstorms this weekend.

Partly sunny skies will prevail in Montreal today, but the trend has been for more clouds than sun this week. The high temperature will be 5C (41F) with a low of 3C (38F). Low pressure will then develop over the western US and head towards the central Great Lakes on Friday. If the track sounds familiar, that is because every storm this fall has done the same thing. This system will produce warm, gusty southwest winds and a few showers for southern Quebec, along with very mild temperatures into this weekend. By Sunday, deeper moisture arrives from the Gulf of Mexico, with another round of rain forecast. At this time, colder air will try to arrive by around the 20th of the month. It may be just cold enough for a little snow before Christmas, but that is still just a sliver of hope.

Last year the first snowstorm of 2014/2015 was just starting in Montreal. The 48 hour storm would dump over 30cm on the city. However just a week later mild weather would melt all the snow before Christmas giving Montreal a green holiday.

This may be the best December ever - if you don't like snow

My former Publisher at the Gravelbourg Tribune in southern Saskatchewan sent me this picture of Santa sitting on dry ground. Even normally snowy Saskatchewan is void of snow this December. (Photo: P. Boisvert - Tribune)

It is another mild December morning on L'Ile Perrot, at 3C (39F). I washed my car in the driveway yesterday as did many of my neighbours and walked the dog this morning in a jacket normally reserved for October. No matter how you look at it, this is one mild month. Expect more of the same this week, with dry, mild weather through late week. Daytime highs will range from 3 to 7C (39 to 45F) with mild overnight lows of -3C to plus 4C (27 to 41F). Next week looks even warmer.

So far in Montreal, the first 12 hours of December were below freezing, but it has been above the 0C mark ever since. From coast to coast Canadians are enjoying the mild effects of one of the strongest El Nino's on record. The cold air is trapped across the far north. But even there it is not as cold as usual. In Churchill, Manitoba, the Polar Bear Capital of North America,  Friday was the warmest December 4th on record with a high of -2.4C. Numerous daytime record highs were broken from the far west into Ontario. The overnight lows have been just as mild with Montreal dropping only to 5C (41F) Friday night, the normal should be -9C (16F) with a normal daytime high of -1C (30F). The warmer than normal start to December has meant any precipitation that falls has been in the liquid form with only 0.2cm of snow falling at Trudeau Airport in Dorval.

If you like snow, you are out of luck. Looking ahead the entire month looks warm with the unprecedented possibility of every daytime high being above freezing in Montreal. How rare is this? I looked back at the data for Trudeau Airport as far back as 1941 and no December has ever been entirely above freezing for daytime highs. I am still looking at the McGill University weather records which date back to 1871. This is truly a rare event. So prepare yourselves for a green Christmas, because if I was a betting man, I would say that is where the odds lie.

New month - same weather for southern Quebec

Freezing rain, rain and fog made for slick travel across the region from Kingston to Quebec City on Tuesday and Wednesday. Some wet snow is possible on Thursday.

 The month has changed but the weather remains the same across southern Quebec and eastern Ontario. A strong El Nino in the Pacific Ocean off South America is creating havoc with the weather patterns over North America. November was an extremely mild month in Montreal, the average temperature at Trudeau Airport was 4.4C, the normal is 1.6C. We had only two daytime highs below the freezing point, and that was in the last week. Snowfall was a paltry 2.2cm, the lowest since 2006. The average overnight low was just below freezing at -0.1C. The average daytime high, a very warm 8.7C.

As December begins, mild air this week has produced freezing rain and rain rather than snow. Some cooler air will try to work into southern Quebec behind the current storm, perhaps with a little wet snow Thursday. A pronounced west to east jet stream will result in the cold air remaining trapped over northern Canada. Just a few pockets of arctic air will slide southeast over the month, impacting mainly portions of eastern Quebec and Atlantic Canada. The trend for Montreal at this time looks very mild with high temperatures at or above freezing through Christmas. There may be a couple of opportunities for snow, but the likelihood of it staying on the ground looks slim at this time.

Another mild week ahead for Montreal & southern Quebec

While Montreal and southern Quebec remain relatively mild and dry, snow and ice created havoc in the southern and central plains. Ten fatalities were reported and hundreds of thousands are without power from west Texas through Oklahoma and Iowa. (Photo from power utility twitter@PSOklahoma)

Anyone wishing for snow for the holiday season in Montreal may be out of luck. Don't be fooled by the very cold start this morning, we are looking at another mild week in the St. Lawrence Valley. L'Ile Perrot is currently -9.1C (16F), under clear skies. High pressure will dominate today into Tuesday with sunshine and moderating temperatures. The high today will remain below freezing at -1C (30F), but that may be the last cold day for some time to come.

On Tuesday, mild air will stream northward with a high near 5C (41F), as yet another storm takes aim at the central Great Lakes. This track places Montreal once again on the warm side of the system. While snow and ice are forecast from the southern plains into Minnesota and northwest Ontario, increasing clouds and showers can be expected in Montreal from late Tuesday through mid-week. Looking ahead into December, I see no cold air or snow through at least the 10th of the month and perhaps even longer, right up to Christmas Day. At this time, we are looking at the real possibility of a green Christmas this year. Time will tell. I will take a look back at what was a very warm and dry November in tomorrows blog.

El Nino...record high for Montreal - ice storm for Texas

A spectacular shot of the effects of freezing rain from Oklahoma. 
(Twitter Photo @KOCOBrad)

The crazy fall weather continues to unfold as we head into the holiday season. On Friday, Montreal recorded a record high of 14.7C (58F) beating the old record of 14.4C (57F) set in 1976. This occurring during the same week we had our first snowfall. Along with the warmth came about 14mm of rain and just a trace of snow late last night. It was just too warm yesterday for any appreciable snow to fall last evening. The weekend looks fair and cooler with near normal daytime highs around 0C (32F) and cold overnight lows down around -7C (19F). It should remain dry through Monday.

While Montreal and southern Quebec were warm, cold air surging through the middle portion of North America produced a wide area of snow and freezing rain from the northern Rockies into the southern Plains. West Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas were under an ice storm warning with over 15mm (0.5") of freezing rain. The rain coated trees, power lines and roads resulting in numerous accidents and at least 5 deaths. Power was out to thousands across the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles during the busy US Thanksgiving Holiday. More freezing rain is forecast today as moisture surges north from tropical storm Sandra entering Mexico from the Pacific Ocean. It has been just a bizarre fall!

Colder weather returns with a little snow for Montreal

Much cooler air will move into Montreal tonight, but it will still be near normal for late November.

It is a very mild morning in Montreal, almost in record high territory already this early in the day. The current temperature here on L'Ile Perrot is 12.4C down form 13.8C in the wee hours. The record for today is 14.4C (57F) set in 1976, the normal high should be a chilly 1C (33F). Trudeau Airport is currently at 9C (48F). The high for the day should be around 13C, this should occur during the middle hours of the day. Afterwards a strong arctic cold front will sweep the St. Lawrence Valley with rapidly dropping temperatures and a period of steady rain ending as some snow or flurries. That changeover should occur in Montreal this evening after 9pm and leave a trace to 2cm around the region.

Until then expect a cloudy, breezy and mild Friday with a few showers. Tonight will be cloudy with flurries and much colder with an overnight low down to -5C in the city, colder north and west. Roads will be be icy in spots so be prepared if you are out late tonight or early Saturday. The balance of the weekend will be dominated by high pressure with sunshine and seasonable temperatures, highs near 0C (32F) and overnight lows down to -7C (19F). No major storms on the horizon as well as no big cold spells. Our El Nino fall and winter continues.

The snow will melt - warm end to the week in Montreal

Long lines of traffic formed on L'Ile Perrot on Tuesday morning from just a 2cm snowfall. The snow and ice caused dozens of accidents as many motorists decided to wait to put on their winter tires.

The first snowflakes of fall 2015 fell on Montreal Tuesday, with close to 2cm here on L'Ile Perrot. The surprise snow and cold overnight temperatures were enough to ice over highways across the region. This, combined with a general lack of snow tires or rusty winter driving skills, produced dozens of accidents. The result was traffic gridlock in Montreal. My morning commute typically takes 40 minutes, but on Tuesday it stretched to over 2 hours. While the timing and quantity of the snow was a wee bit of a surprise, the fact that winter has arrived should not be to anyone who has lived in Montreal. We get snow every November, get ready for more!

Rain changing to snow late Friday
The weather is much quieter this morning as high pressure crests over southern Quebec. It is a very cold morning with the snow cover providing ideal radiational cooling. L'Ile Perrot dropped to -9C (16F) early this morning. Sunshine and south winds will help the high temperature rebound to 5C (41F) this afternoon. This is the start of a two-day period of well-above normal temperatures. I expect the high on Thursday and Friday to exceed 10C (50F). It will be windy both days with sunshine Thursday. By Friday a strong cold front will approach southern Quebec with increasing clouds. Rain will develop in the afternoon but mix with and change to snow very late at night as the temperature plummets. The high on Saturday will only be -2C (29F). More on the potential snow in the next blog.

Weather, weather everywhere...but Montreal

I hate that, you know when people say there is no weather. Weather is always happening, it just may not be the active kind. It seems like Montreal is into that trend right now. This may go down in history as one of the most docile Novembers on record for the city. It has been mild, with very little precipitation and almost every storm system has skirted the city in every direction available. The average high for the month remains well above normal at around 10.8C (51F). So far we have had only 32.2 mm of rainfall along with just a trace of snow. In a normal November, Montreal can expect around 20cm of snowfall. Total sunshine hours have been well above normal for the usually dreary month of November.

Portions of Iowa, Illinois and Wisconsin were buried under nearly a foot of snow Saturday. (USA Today Photo)

Believe it or not, many US cities have had colder temperatures than Montreal and abundant snowfall. This includes portions of the Midwest US that had a record breaking snowstorm yesterday. Across sections of Illinois, Indiana, Wisconsin, Iowa and Minnesota, nearly 30cm of heavy wet snow fell. Chicago recorded its second biggest November snowfall on record with just over 22cm of snow. This morning the low in Montreal was 6C (43F) while Chicago's Midway Airport was -10C (14F). Snow also fell across southern Manitoba as far east as central Ontario and far western Quebec. Snow is also forecast tonight for portions of New Brunswick. This week will start chilly for Montreal, but warm up once again to double digit high temperatures, well above the normal high of 3C (39F). Another big winter storm and cold snap will affect portions of western Canada and the Great Lakes while southern Quebec becomes dry and warm for most of the week.

Winter slow to arrive in Montreal

A new winter storm will develop over the Midwest and affect the central Great Lakes this weekend. Montreal will remain on the warm side of the storm. (AccuWeather)

November continues to be a warm month for Montreal and our surrounding regions. Yesterday Trudeau Airport reached 14C (56F), well above normal once again. The first 19 days of the month have generated an average daily high of 11.1C (52F) for the city, the normal should be around 6C (43F). Looking ahead, temperatures will try to cool on a couple of occasions, but basically remain above normal well into December. We have a couple of opportunities for some flurries this weekend and again early next week, but no major snowstorms are on the horizon at this time. A strengthening El Nino will continue to keep the cold air at bay, while deflecting any storms away from southern Quebec.

In the short term, the rain of Thursday has passed off to our east and we are looking at clearing skies today. It will be cooler than yesterday with our high already reached early this morning and temperatures cooling all day. The low tonight under clear skies will be 0C (32F). On Saturday, clouds will slowly increase as a developing storm over the Midwest US moves towards the Great Lakes and into western Quebec. This system will bring a period of light rain or flurries to the region late Saturday into Sunday. No major accumulations are expected in Montreal. Temperatures will remain mild for November with highs around 6C (43F) and lows near the freezing point. The bulk of the snow with this storm will affect places like Chicago and Milwaukee and points north, as well as central Ontario and north western Quebec. As the low passes on Sunday, cooler air will try to move into southern Quebec to start next week. Snow squalls may develop around the Great Lakes.

Arctic air blasts Prairies

The webcam at the University of Saskatchewan in Saskatoon shows a coating of snow on the ground this morning. Cold air, strong winds and blowing snow are sweeping across the province today.

The coldest air of the season is moving across western Canada this morning. Temperatures have fallen into the minus teens across the northern Prairies and are spreading south and east. Along with the cold air is a blast of wind that has prompted wind warnings across many areas of Saskatchewan, Alberta and BC. Wind speeds are forecast in excess of 100km/h in many locations. Over 40,000 customers in B.C. alone have lost power. A burst of moderate snow has developed along the front in Saskatchewan and is spreading into Manitoba this morning with icy roads and lowering visibility. An example of the potent cold front is in Regina, Saskatchewan where the current temperature is 4C (39F). Winds are picking up and rain, will change to snow with the mercury plummeting to -6C (21F) by this afternoon. The cold air, wind and snow will spread into Manitoba this evening.

Tornado Outbreak
Meanwhile a potent fall storm lifting north towards the Great Lakes, produced heavy snow west of the system and strong thunderstorms east of the track on Tuesday. One of the largest November tornado outbreaks on record occurred late Monday night across portions of Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas. Over 40 tornadoes were observed with serious damage reported. In Denver, blizzard conditions cancelled flights and closed highways on Tuesday.

Snow for Quebec?
In Montreal, high pressure has been in control of our weather this week. We have been enjoying cool nights and seasonable days. One more day of sunshine is expected today, before clouds increase on gusty southerly winds tonight. Temperatures will moderate up to 11C (52F) today and Thursday, along with rain developing by late Thursday. Clouds and showers will hold on into Friday. Cooler temperatures will return along with gusty winds as a cold front moves into the St. Lawrence Valley. Temperatures will drop to the freezing point by late Saturday, with a chance for some snow showers late in the day and early Sunday morning. Some locations in southern Quebec and New England may see a coating of snow on the ground by Sunday.

A weather re-run from last week for Montreal

Another fairly warm week ahead for eastern North America, but much colder air is on the horizon. (AccuWeather.com)

If you liked last week in the weather department, then you will love the forecast for Montreal for the upcoming week. High pressure over southern Quebec will give partly cloudy skies today along with slightly cooler temperatures than that of Sunday. Highs are forecast around 6C (43F) for Montreal. Clear skies and light winds will allow for a cold overnight with lows in the -4C (25F) range by Tuesday morning. Tuesday will be sunny and seasonable with a high near 5C (41F).

On Wednesday southern Quebec will start to come under the influence of a developing fall storm over the southern US plains. Clouds will slowly increase along with southerly winds. Expect highs to approach 8C (48F) Wednesday, and 12C (54F) Thursday. The normal high/ low should be 5C (41F) and -3C (27F). The strengthening storm system will lift north across the central Great Lakes and into northern Ontario. By Thursday, a cold front will cross southern Quebec with much cooler weather on the way for Montreal by next weekend. Along the cold front, winds will gust in excess of 50km/h and a steady rain will develop.

This storm will be a big weather maker for portions of the US and the eastern Prairies. The coldest air of the season is being pulled south behind the low with heavy snow forecast for many regions. Blizzard conditions may develop from Colorado north into the far western Great Lakes and Manitoba. East of the storm, heavy rain and strong thunderstorms are expected from the Gulf Coast to the Ohio Valley. The coldest air of the season will then settle into eastern Canada by next weekend with high temperatures in Montreal of only 1C (34F) forecast at this time.

Windy fall storm for southern Ontario & Quebec

Heavy snow fell Wednesday morning in Colorado Springs on the cold side of a fall storm moving towards Ontario and Quebec. (AP photo)

 A strong low pressure area moving from Utah towards Lake Huron is creating all kinds of bad weather for millions today. The storm, centered over northern Michigan this morning, brought heavy snow to portions of the Rockies. East of the trajectory, strong thunderstorms and tornadoes occurred Wednesday. Rain is occurring in advance of the storm, while on the backside, heavy wet snow is falling across the upper Midwest and far northwest Ontario. The storm is also producing very strong winds along its path. High wind warnings are in effect for portions of southern Ontario along Lakes Erie and Ontario. Wind gusts in excess of 90km/h are forecast. Strong winds will spread into southern Quebec late today and Friday, with gusts up to 70km/h expected in Montreal. The gusty winds have also prompted storm surge warnings for portions of the Maritimes and the Gaspe coast.

Rain is forecast to develop shortly in Montreal, with showers expected through Friday. Temperatures will be mild on the east side of the storm, but as the low slips across Quebec on Friday, cooler air will pour in behind it. The rain may change briefly to a period of wet snow late Friday night in parts of southern Quebec. Just a trace is possible in the valley locations, but 5-10cm may fall across the highest elevations of the Townships, the Green and Adirondack mountains. Temperatures will be mild today, up to 12C (54F). On Friday it will turn cooler with the high early in the day and temperatures falling to near freezing late Friday, in Montreal. Saturday will be cloudy, breezy and cool with an overnight low of -3C (27F) and a high of 5C (41F). The weather will turn warmer again next week.

Stormy weather by mid-week for southern Quebec

A beautiful sunset over Lake Champlain and the Adirondacks on Saturday. The perfect November weather continues for the entire region. (ValleyWeather)

The weather gods continue to shine on Montreal and southern Quebec as our warm fall moves along. Despite the passage of a cold front on Friday, the weekend still featured above-normal temperatures along with abundant sunshine. So far, every day this month has had warmer than normal temperatures in Montreal. I see no end in sight to that trend, with perhaps a couple of cooler or near normal days next weekend. High pressure is in control to start the work week with sunshine today and Tuesday, along with daytime highs of 12C (54F) and overnight lows around 4C (39F). The normal high/low for Montreal should be 6C (43F) and -1C (30F) for today's date. 

On Wednesday, the weather will turn unsettled as low pressure begins to move along the Atlantic coast. Montreal will be on the northern edge of the precipitation, with light rain developing by late in the day and lasting into Thursday. On Thursday, yet another storm system, this one from the southwest US, will approach the Great Lakes. This storm will likely provide the chance for heavier rainfall along with very strong winds by the end of the week, for Ontario and Quebec. Both storms will have to be monitored closely for any impacts on southern Quebec along with warnings that may be needed. Temperatures will remain mild through the week but cool off by Saturday with perhaps a few flurries around by the weekend.

Near record warmth forecast into Friday for Montreal

Snow fell Wednesday in of all places northern Arizona. The 8.8 inches of snow that fell in Flagstaff established a new daily record for early November eclipsing the old one of 5 inches set in 1925. (AP Photo)

Very mild weather continues to dominate the forecast across southern Quebec and Ontario, the high on Wednesday was 14C (56F), well above the normal high of 5C (41F) for Montreal. Today will be even warmer, Montreal has a shot at the record high of 19C (66F) set in 1988. The forecast high temperature today is 18C (65F) for the city. Expect sunshine but with some high clouds on the increase during the afternoon. Tonight and Friday will be cloudy but very mild with lows well above normal at 11C (52F) and another mild day Friday reaching 17C (63F). Showers will develop along a vigorous cold front on Friday along with the chance of an isolated thunderstorm. Winds will be on the increase Friday in the St. Lawrence Valley with gusts approaching 80km/h in the afternoon. The wind may reach warning criteria for a few hours so we will have to watch that scenario. Most of the leaves have fallen form the trees but there is still the chance of a few downed limbs.

Winds will diminish and skies will turn partly cloudy by Friday night with cooler air moving in. The overnight low will be 7C (45F) with a high of 10C (50F) Saturday, still above normal. Cooler weather is forecast for Sunday, maybe near normal for a day before temperatures rise again next week. At this time November looks mild right through the late stages of the month. No snow is in the forecast for southern Quebec through next week.

Warm in the east - cool west

A plane emerges out of the fog at Heathrow Airport in London on Monday morning. Thick fog blanketed parts of western Europe cancelling thousands of flights. (AccuWeather.com)

As we get set to enjoy a sunny and very warm stretch of days here in Montreal, the first snowstorm of the season is moving into western Canada. Sunshine this morning in Montreal will last most of the week with temperatures of 15C (59F) up to as warm as 20C (68F) across southern Quebec and Ontario. That folks is about 5-15 degrees above normal for early November. Showers will push into Montreal by Friday along with gusty west winds and dropping temperatures. While it will be warm, a peek at the high temperature records for early November show most of them on either side of 20C. Montreal will have a hard time breaking any of them, but I will keep an eye on it.

Prairie Snow
A developing winter storm will move from Colorado into Manitoba over the next 24 hours. The system will draw down just enough cold air to change the rain over to snow across Montana and Saskatchewan. Portions of southern Saskatchewan may see as much as 10cm of wet snow by Wednesday morning.

More weather making the news over the last 48 hours including severe flooding in Texas, snow in northern California and a blanket of dense fog in England and a big chunk of western Europe. Also a very rare and powerful cyclone (hurricane) Chapala, swept into Yemen on Monday with strong winds and flooding rains. Extensive damage was reported in coastal areas along with several casualties.

A very warm start to November in Montreal

Summer-like thunderstorms developed Sunday afternoon west of Montreal, eventually crossing the city and surprising many. (ValleyWX)

It was a rather docile weather system that passed across southern Quebec on Sunday, but it was just enough to stir up the atmosphere. In what is more typical of a July afternoon, the brief sun that broke out Sunday was just enough to generate instability in the atmosphere and some potent thunderstorms. The storms swept across Vaudreuil around 3:30pm and then across portions of the Island of Montreal and Laval. Vivid lightning, heavy rain, winds gusting up to 70km/h and even small hail occurred. The brief storms dissipated rapidly after sunset and produced no damage.

September-like week ahead
High pressure will move into the region this week producing sunshine and very warm temperatures for November. The temperature is forecast to be 5 to 10 degrees above the normal long term average of 8C (48F) for a high and 0C (32F) for a low. With the exception of lingering clouds today, lots of sunshine is forecast, another anomaly for November, known as the cloudiest month of the year. Daytime highs will reach 12C (54F) today and as warm as 19C (66F) by Friday. A cold front will approach southern Quebec by late in the week with more seasonable weather and showers by next weekend.

It will be cold somewhere in Canada this week. Parts of the NWT and Yukon have temperatures this morning in the minus teens. Also snow is forecast across portions of the southern Prairies over the next 36 hours with a much as 10cm possible across portions of southern Saskatchewan.