Another mild week ahead for Montreal & southern Quebec

While Montreal and southern Quebec remain relatively mild and dry, snow and ice created havoc in the southern and central plains. Ten fatalities were reported and hundreds of thousands are without power from west Texas through Oklahoma and Iowa. (Photo from power utility twitter@PSOklahoma)

Anyone wishing for snow for the holiday season in Montreal may be out of luck. Don't be fooled by the very cold start this morning, we are looking at another mild week in the St. Lawrence Valley. L'Ile Perrot is currently -9.1C (16F), under clear skies. High pressure will dominate today into Tuesday with sunshine and moderating temperatures. The high today will remain below freezing at -1C (30F), but that may be the last cold day for some time to come.

On Tuesday, mild air will stream northward with a high near 5C (41F), as yet another storm takes aim at the central Great Lakes. This track places Montreal once again on the warm side of the system. While snow and ice are forecast from the southern plains into Minnesota and northwest Ontario, increasing clouds and showers can be expected in Montreal from late Tuesday through mid-week. Looking ahead into December, I see no cold air or snow through at least the 10th of the month and perhaps even longer, right up to Christmas Day. At this time, we are looking at the real possibility of a green Christmas this year. Time will tell. I will take a look back at what was a very warm and dry November in tomorrows blog.

El Nino...record high for Montreal - ice storm for Texas

A spectacular shot of the effects of freezing rain from Oklahoma. 
(Twitter Photo @KOCOBrad)

The crazy fall weather continues to unfold as we head into the holiday season. On Friday, Montreal recorded a record high of 14.7C (58F) beating the old record of 14.4C (57F) set in 1976. This occurring during the same week we had our first snowfall. Along with the warmth came about 14mm of rain and just a trace of snow late last night. It was just too warm yesterday for any appreciable snow to fall last evening. The weekend looks fair and cooler with near normal daytime highs around 0C (32F) and cold overnight lows down around -7C (19F). It should remain dry through Monday.

While Montreal and southern Quebec were warm, cold air surging through the middle portion of North America produced a wide area of snow and freezing rain from the northern Rockies into the southern Plains. West Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas were under an ice storm warning with over 15mm (0.5") of freezing rain. The rain coated trees, power lines and roads resulting in numerous accidents and at least 5 deaths. Power was out to thousands across the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles during the busy US Thanksgiving Holiday. More freezing rain is forecast today as moisture surges north from tropical storm Sandra entering Mexico from the Pacific Ocean. It has been just a bizarre fall!

Colder weather returns with a little snow for Montreal

Much cooler air will move into Montreal tonight, but it will still be near normal for late November.

It is a very mild morning in Montreal, almost in record high territory already this early in the day. The current temperature here on L'Ile Perrot is 12.4C down form 13.8C in the wee hours. The record for today is 14.4C (57F) set in 1976, the normal high should be a chilly 1C (33F). Trudeau Airport is currently at 9C (48F). The high for the day should be around 13C, this should occur during the middle hours of the day. Afterwards a strong arctic cold front will sweep the St. Lawrence Valley with rapidly dropping temperatures and a period of steady rain ending as some snow or flurries. That changeover should occur in Montreal this evening after 9pm and leave a trace to 2cm around the region.

Until then expect a cloudy, breezy and mild Friday with a few showers. Tonight will be cloudy with flurries and much colder with an overnight low down to -5C in the city, colder north and west. Roads will be be icy in spots so be prepared if you are out late tonight or early Saturday. The balance of the weekend will be dominated by high pressure with sunshine and seasonable temperatures, highs near 0C (32F) and overnight lows down to -7C (19F). No major storms on the horizon as well as no big cold spells. Our El Nino fall and winter continues.

The snow will melt - warm end to the week in Montreal

Long lines of traffic formed on L'Ile Perrot on Tuesday morning from just a 2cm snowfall. The snow and ice caused dozens of accidents as many motorists decided to wait to put on their winter tires.

The first snowflakes of fall 2015 fell on Montreal Tuesday, with close to 2cm here on L'Ile Perrot. The surprise snow and cold overnight temperatures were enough to ice over highways across the region. This, combined with a general lack of snow tires or rusty winter driving skills, produced dozens of accidents. The result was traffic gridlock in Montreal. My morning commute typically takes 40 minutes, but on Tuesday it stretched to over 2 hours. While the timing and quantity of the snow was a wee bit of a surprise, the fact that winter has arrived should not be to anyone who has lived in Montreal. We get snow every November, get ready for more!

Rain changing to snow late Friday
The weather is much quieter this morning as high pressure crests over southern Quebec. It is a very cold morning with the snow cover providing ideal radiational cooling. L'Ile Perrot dropped to -9C (16F) early this morning. Sunshine and south winds will help the high temperature rebound to 5C (41F) this afternoon. This is the start of a two-day period of well-above normal temperatures. I expect the high on Thursday and Friday to exceed 10C (50F). It will be windy both days with sunshine Thursday. By Friday a strong cold front will approach southern Quebec with increasing clouds. Rain will develop in the afternoon but mix with and change to snow very late at night as the temperature plummets. The high on Saturday will only be -2C (29F). More on the potential snow in the next blog.

Weather, weather everywhere...but Montreal

I hate that, you know when people say there is no weather. Weather is always happening, it just may not be the active kind. It seems like Montreal is into that trend right now. This may go down in history as one of the most docile Novembers on record for the city. It has been mild, with very little precipitation and almost every storm system has skirted the city in every direction available. The average high for the month remains well above normal at around 10.8C (51F). So far we have had only 32.2 mm of rainfall along with just a trace of snow. In a normal November, Montreal can expect around 20cm of snowfall. Total sunshine hours have been well above normal for the usually dreary month of November.

Portions of Iowa, Illinois and Wisconsin were buried under nearly a foot of snow Saturday. (USA Today Photo)

Believe it or not, many US cities have had colder temperatures than Montreal and abundant snowfall. This includes portions of the Midwest US that had a record breaking snowstorm yesterday. Across sections of Illinois, Indiana, Wisconsin, Iowa and Minnesota, nearly 30cm of heavy wet snow fell. Chicago recorded its second biggest November snowfall on record with just over 22cm of snow. This morning the low in Montreal was 6C (43F) while Chicago's Midway Airport was -10C (14F). Snow also fell across southern Manitoba as far east as central Ontario and far western Quebec. Snow is also forecast tonight for portions of New Brunswick. This week will start chilly for Montreal, but warm up once again to double digit high temperatures, well above the normal high of 3C (39F). Another big winter storm and cold snap will affect portions of western Canada and the Great Lakes while southern Quebec becomes dry and warm for most of the week.

Winter slow to arrive in Montreal

A new winter storm will develop over the Midwest and affect the central Great Lakes this weekend. Montreal will remain on the warm side of the storm. (AccuWeather)

November continues to be a warm month for Montreal and our surrounding regions. Yesterday Trudeau Airport reached 14C (56F), well above normal once again. The first 19 days of the month have generated an average daily high of 11.1C (52F) for the city, the normal should be around 6C (43F). Looking ahead, temperatures will try to cool on a couple of occasions, but basically remain above normal well into December. We have a couple of opportunities for some flurries this weekend and again early next week, but no major snowstorms are on the horizon at this time. A strengthening El Nino will continue to keep the cold air at bay, while deflecting any storms away from southern Quebec.

In the short term, the rain of Thursday has passed off to our east and we are looking at clearing skies today. It will be cooler than yesterday with our high already reached early this morning and temperatures cooling all day. The low tonight under clear skies will be 0C (32F). On Saturday, clouds will slowly increase as a developing storm over the Midwest US moves towards the Great Lakes and into western Quebec. This system will bring a period of light rain or flurries to the region late Saturday into Sunday. No major accumulations are expected in Montreal. Temperatures will remain mild for November with highs around 6C (43F) and lows near the freezing point. The bulk of the snow with this storm will affect places like Chicago and Milwaukee and points north, as well as central Ontario and north western Quebec. As the low passes on Sunday, cooler air will try to move into southern Quebec to start next week. Snow squalls may develop around the Great Lakes.

Arctic air blasts Prairies

The webcam at the University of Saskatchewan in Saskatoon shows a coating of snow on the ground this morning. Cold air, strong winds and blowing snow are sweeping across the province today.

The coldest air of the season is moving across western Canada this morning. Temperatures have fallen into the minus teens across the northern Prairies and are spreading south and east. Along with the cold air is a blast of wind that has prompted wind warnings across many areas of Saskatchewan, Alberta and BC. Wind speeds are forecast in excess of 100km/h in many locations. Over 40,000 customers in B.C. alone have lost power. A burst of moderate snow has developed along the front in Saskatchewan and is spreading into Manitoba this morning with icy roads and lowering visibility. An example of the potent cold front is in Regina, Saskatchewan where the current temperature is 4C (39F). Winds are picking up and rain, will change to snow with the mercury plummeting to -6C (21F) by this afternoon. The cold air, wind and snow will spread into Manitoba this evening.

Tornado Outbreak
Meanwhile a potent fall storm lifting north towards the Great Lakes, produced heavy snow west of the system and strong thunderstorms east of the track on Tuesday. One of the largest November tornado outbreaks on record occurred late Monday night across portions of Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas. Over 40 tornadoes were observed with serious damage reported. In Denver, blizzard conditions cancelled flights and closed highways on Tuesday.

Snow for Quebec?
In Montreal, high pressure has been in control of our weather this week. We have been enjoying cool nights and seasonable days. One more day of sunshine is expected today, before clouds increase on gusty southerly winds tonight. Temperatures will moderate up to 11C (52F) today and Thursday, along with rain developing by late Thursday. Clouds and showers will hold on into Friday. Cooler temperatures will return along with gusty winds as a cold front moves into the St. Lawrence Valley. Temperatures will drop to the freezing point by late Saturday, with a chance for some snow showers late in the day and early Sunday morning. Some locations in southern Quebec and New England may see a coating of snow on the ground by Sunday.

A weather re-run from last week for Montreal

Another fairly warm week ahead for eastern North America, but much colder air is on the horizon. (AccuWeather.com)

If you liked last week in the weather department, then you will love the forecast for Montreal for the upcoming week. High pressure over southern Quebec will give partly cloudy skies today along with slightly cooler temperatures than that of Sunday. Highs are forecast around 6C (43F) for Montreal. Clear skies and light winds will allow for a cold overnight with lows in the -4C (25F) range by Tuesday morning. Tuesday will be sunny and seasonable with a high near 5C (41F).

On Wednesday southern Quebec will start to come under the influence of a developing fall storm over the southern US plains. Clouds will slowly increase along with southerly winds. Expect highs to approach 8C (48F) Wednesday, and 12C (54F) Thursday. The normal high/ low should be 5C (41F) and -3C (27F). The strengthening storm system will lift north across the central Great Lakes and into northern Ontario. By Thursday, a cold front will cross southern Quebec with much cooler weather on the way for Montreal by next weekend. Along the cold front, winds will gust in excess of 50km/h and a steady rain will develop.

This storm will be a big weather maker for portions of the US and the eastern Prairies. The coldest air of the season is being pulled south behind the low with heavy snow forecast for many regions. Blizzard conditions may develop from Colorado north into the far western Great Lakes and Manitoba. East of the storm, heavy rain and strong thunderstorms are expected from the Gulf Coast to the Ohio Valley. The coldest air of the season will then settle into eastern Canada by next weekend with high temperatures in Montreal of only 1C (34F) forecast at this time.

Windy fall storm for southern Ontario & Quebec

Heavy snow fell Wednesday morning in Colorado Springs on the cold side of a fall storm moving towards Ontario and Quebec. (AP photo)

 A strong low pressure area moving from Utah towards Lake Huron is creating all kinds of bad weather for millions today. The storm, centered over northern Michigan this morning, brought heavy snow to portions of the Rockies. East of the trajectory, strong thunderstorms and tornadoes occurred Wednesday. Rain is occurring in advance of the storm, while on the backside, heavy wet snow is falling across the upper Midwest and far northwest Ontario. The storm is also producing very strong winds along its path. High wind warnings are in effect for portions of southern Ontario along Lakes Erie and Ontario. Wind gusts in excess of 90km/h are forecast. Strong winds will spread into southern Quebec late today and Friday, with gusts up to 70km/h expected in Montreal. The gusty winds have also prompted storm surge warnings for portions of the Maritimes and the Gaspe coast.

Rain is forecast to develop shortly in Montreal, with showers expected through Friday. Temperatures will be mild on the east side of the storm, but as the low slips across Quebec on Friday, cooler air will pour in behind it. The rain may change briefly to a period of wet snow late Friday night in parts of southern Quebec. Just a trace is possible in the valley locations, but 5-10cm may fall across the highest elevations of the Townships, the Green and Adirondack mountains. Temperatures will be mild today, up to 12C (54F). On Friday it will turn cooler with the high early in the day and temperatures falling to near freezing late Friday, in Montreal. Saturday will be cloudy, breezy and cool with an overnight low of -3C (27F) and a high of 5C (41F). The weather will turn warmer again next week.

Stormy weather by mid-week for southern Quebec

A beautiful sunset over Lake Champlain and the Adirondacks on Saturday. The perfect November weather continues for the entire region. (ValleyWeather)

The weather gods continue to shine on Montreal and southern Quebec as our warm fall moves along. Despite the passage of a cold front on Friday, the weekend still featured above-normal temperatures along with abundant sunshine. So far, every day this month has had warmer than normal temperatures in Montreal. I see no end in sight to that trend, with perhaps a couple of cooler or near normal days next weekend. High pressure is in control to start the work week with sunshine today and Tuesday, along with daytime highs of 12C (54F) and overnight lows around 4C (39F). The normal high/low for Montreal should be 6C (43F) and -1C (30F) for today's date. 

On Wednesday, the weather will turn unsettled as low pressure begins to move along the Atlantic coast. Montreal will be on the northern edge of the precipitation, with light rain developing by late in the day and lasting into Thursday. On Thursday, yet another storm system, this one from the southwest US, will approach the Great Lakes. This storm will likely provide the chance for heavier rainfall along with very strong winds by the end of the week, for Ontario and Quebec. Both storms will have to be monitored closely for any impacts on southern Quebec along with warnings that may be needed. Temperatures will remain mild through the week but cool off by Saturday with perhaps a few flurries around by the weekend.

Near record warmth forecast into Friday for Montreal

Snow fell Wednesday in of all places northern Arizona. The 8.8 inches of snow that fell in Flagstaff established a new daily record for early November eclipsing the old one of 5 inches set in 1925. (AP Photo)

Very mild weather continues to dominate the forecast across southern Quebec and Ontario, the high on Wednesday was 14C (56F), well above the normal high of 5C (41F) for Montreal. Today will be even warmer, Montreal has a shot at the record high of 19C (66F) set in 1988. The forecast high temperature today is 18C (65F) for the city. Expect sunshine but with some high clouds on the increase during the afternoon. Tonight and Friday will be cloudy but very mild with lows well above normal at 11C (52F) and another mild day Friday reaching 17C (63F). Showers will develop along a vigorous cold front on Friday along with the chance of an isolated thunderstorm. Winds will be on the increase Friday in the St. Lawrence Valley with gusts approaching 80km/h in the afternoon. The wind may reach warning criteria for a few hours so we will have to watch that scenario. Most of the leaves have fallen form the trees but there is still the chance of a few downed limbs.

Winds will diminish and skies will turn partly cloudy by Friday night with cooler air moving in. The overnight low will be 7C (45F) with a high of 10C (50F) Saturday, still above normal. Cooler weather is forecast for Sunday, maybe near normal for a day before temperatures rise again next week. At this time November looks mild right through the late stages of the month. No snow is in the forecast for southern Quebec through next week.

Warm in the east - cool west

A plane emerges out of the fog at Heathrow Airport in London on Monday morning. Thick fog blanketed parts of western Europe cancelling thousands of flights. (AccuWeather.com)

As we get set to enjoy a sunny and very warm stretch of days here in Montreal, the first snowstorm of the season is moving into western Canada. Sunshine this morning in Montreal will last most of the week with temperatures of 15C (59F) up to as warm as 20C (68F) across southern Quebec and Ontario. That folks is about 5-15 degrees above normal for early November. Showers will push into Montreal by Friday along with gusty west winds and dropping temperatures. While it will be warm, a peek at the high temperature records for early November show most of them on either side of 20C. Montreal will have a hard time breaking any of them, but I will keep an eye on it.

Prairie Snow
A developing winter storm will move from Colorado into Manitoba over the next 24 hours. The system will draw down just enough cold air to change the rain over to snow across Montana and Saskatchewan. Portions of southern Saskatchewan may see as much as 10cm of wet snow by Wednesday morning.

More weather making the news over the last 48 hours including severe flooding in Texas, snow in northern California and a blanket of dense fog in England and a big chunk of western Europe. Also a very rare and powerful cyclone (hurricane) Chapala, swept into Yemen on Monday with strong winds and flooding rains. Extensive damage was reported in coastal areas along with several casualties.

A very warm start to November in Montreal

Summer-like thunderstorms developed Sunday afternoon west of Montreal, eventually crossing the city and surprising many. (ValleyWX)

It was a rather docile weather system that passed across southern Quebec on Sunday, but it was just enough to stir up the atmosphere. In what is more typical of a July afternoon, the brief sun that broke out Sunday was just enough to generate instability in the atmosphere and some potent thunderstorms. The storms swept across Vaudreuil around 3:30pm and then across portions of the Island of Montreal and Laval. Vivid lightning, heavy rain, winds gusting up to 70km/h and even small hail occurred. The brief storms dissipated rapidly after sunset and produced no damage.

September-like week ahead
High pressure will move into the region this week producing sunshine and very warm temperatures for November. The temperature is forecast to be 5 to 10 degrees above the normal long term average of 8C (48F) for a high and 0C (32F) for a low. With the exception of lingering clouds today, lots of sunshine is forecast, another anomaly for November, known as the cloudiest month of the year. Daytime highs will reach 12C (54F) today and as warm as 19C (66F) by Friday. A cold front will approach southern Quebec by late in the week with more seasonable weather and showers by next weekend.

It will be cold somewhere in Canada this week. Parts of the NWT and Yukon have temperatures this morning in the minus teens. Also snow is forecast across portions of the southern Prairies over the next 36 hours with a much as 10cm possible across portions of southern Saskatchewan.

Dry Halloween forecast but a wet start to November

Halloween looks dry and cool for Trick or Treating in Montreal.
Daylight Savings Time ends at 2am Sunday morning, so don't forget to turn your clocks back 1 hour.

The strong winds of Thursday are slowly abating this morning after gusts in excess of 75km/h in Montreal. Damage was minimal across the region with just a few large tree branches reported down. The same was true across eastern Ontario where winds gusted up to 100km/h. A few sporadic power outages were also reported.

High pressure will move into southern Quebec today with temperatures on the cool side, 6C (43F) and winds gusty at times up to 40km/h. Clear skies overnight will allow for the temperature to drop below freezing to -1C (30F). Halloween at this time looks dry with clouds increasing and a seasonable high of 7C (45F). Trick or Treat time in Montreal is expected to be cloudy and around 6C (43F). Showers will develop very late in the evening around midnight and continue into Sunday. Next week at this time looks very mild for the start of November with temperatures running above normal near 15C for a good part of the week. A cooling trend is expected by the end of the week, but nothing drastic at this time.

Strong winds forecast for Montreal today

Strong winds toppled trees in southern New England last evening. The gusty winds will spread across northern New England, Ontario and into southern Quebec today. 
(The Weather Channel Photo)

Low pressure continues to lift north of the Great Lakes this morning into northern Quebec. Heavy rain, strong winds and falling leaves made for a challenging drive on Montreal roads for the Wednesday evening commute. The rain is just about over with this system with the exception of a few showers along a cold front later this afternoon in Montreal. I measured 35.8mm of rain here on L'Ile Perrot, most of that falling in a 12-hour period from noon to midnight Wednesday.

Today the big story will be the strong and gusty winds marching east this morning across southern Ontario. Winds have already been as high as 90 km/h in Port Colborne. Wind warnings have been posted right along the shores of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. There, winds will reach the warning criteria of 90km/h. Away from the lakes, we can still expect 50km/h winds with gusts up to 80km/h. This includes metro Montreal. Winds this strong can knock branches onto power lines, so don't park your car under any large trees today if you can avoid it. Temperatures will start the day mild in the warm sector of the storm with highs up to 16C (60F). Temperatures will begin to cool off rapidly this afternoon with overnight lows tonight down to 0C (32F). Friday will be a typical late-October day with clouds, gusty winds and a very cool high temperature of 6C (43F). Halloween Saturday is expected to be sunny with a high of 8C (48F). Clouds will be on the increase with showers late in the night.

As a final note, get those winter tires on, as it won't be long now... this morning, snow is falling across portions of northwest Ontario, northern Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan on the back side of this fall storm.

Windy & wet fall storm for Quebec and Ontario

Heavy rain and gusty winds from the remains of Patricia will spread north and east towards southern Quebec. (AccuWeather)

Moisture from the remains of Hurricane Patricia along with a deepening area of low pressure in the Mississippi Valley will begin to affect Ontario and Quebec. The low pressure will lift north into the central Great Lakes over the next few days. The system will spread a surge of rain and  perhaps a thunderstorm north into Ontario and eventually southern Quebec. After a sunny Tuesday across the region, clouds will be on the increase early Wednesday. Rain will develop from southwest to northeast and become heavy at times by the evening. Expect a decent rainfall with 25 to 50mm (1 to 2 inches) forecast from southwest Ontario towards Quebec City by Thursday. Strong winds will also be a factor with this fall storm reaching 90km/h (50mph) or greater along the shores of Lake Erie and Ontario by late Wednesday and perhaps 70km/h in Montreal and the St. Lawrence Valley.

Temperatures will be near normal today, 10C (50F) and warm to 15C (59F) by Thursday in the southwest winds ahead of the storm. Cooler air will return by Friday and the weekend. At this time Halloween looks dry for trick or treating in Montreal with showers forecast after midnight.

Hurricane Patricia rapidly weakens over central Mexico

Authorities in Mexico are waiting until daybreak to see the extent of the damage from Hurricane Patricia. It looks like severe flooding may be the biggest impact. Image above is flooding in Manzanillo on Friday. (Photo: J. Levinson/AFP)

Hurricane Patrica, the strongest storm on record in the western hemisphere, is rapidly weakening this morning over central Mexico. The hurricane, with 200mph winds, roared inland in Jalisco State late Friday, October 23. Authorities are waiting until daybreak to see the extent of the damage caused by the storm. Photos and social media reports from the region are showing flash flooding as being a major problem so far. Up to 20 inches of rain may fall along the path of the weakening storm. Hundreds of thousands fled inland from coastal communities as Patricia rapidly strengthened late Thursday. As is common with hurricanes, the storm is rapidly weakening over land, down to a category 1 hurricane this morning with 75mph winds. The center is being ripped apart by shear over the mountains of Mexico.

I read one social media feed on twitter that said the storm may have been overblown. Trust me, you can't exaggerate a category 5 hurricane with 200mph winds. You plan for the worst and hope for the best. Daylight will reveal how the coastal communities in the direct path of the storm fared. The moisture feed from Patricia is enhancing another system over Texas and producing severe flash flooding across that state this morning. The heavy rain and flooding will continue all weekend and spread into other portions of the southern plains as the remains of Patrica move into Texas.

MONTREAL WEATHER
It is a very cold start to the day in Montreal, below freezing in many locations. It will be a cool weekend with sunshine today and a high of 11C (52F), giving way to increasing clouds. Rain will develop overnight and end Sunday morning. Sunday will be a cloudy, breezy and cool fall day with temperatures falling from early highs of 12C (54F) down to 5C (41F) by the end of the day. During the middle part of next week a strong frontal system tapping into moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, will bring heavy rain to Montreal. Perhaps as much as 25-50mm may fall late Tuesday and Wednesday.

Hurricane Patricia strongest ever in Western Hemisphere

A NOAA satellite image of dangerous Hurricane Patricia earlier this morning.

Hurricane Patricia, located 160 miles (255km) south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, is now the strongest storm on record for the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. Patricia, stronger than Katrina, Wilma or Sandy, has exploded into a major category 5 hurricane within the last 24 hours with winds of 200mph (325km/h).

The National Hurricane Center has posted a hurricane warning for a portion of the coast from San Blas to Punto San Telmo south of Puerto Vallarta and well north of Acapulco. Patricia has a record low central pressure of 880mb, even lower than Hurricane Wilma (882mb) from 2005. Patricia is moving north-northwest at 10mph. The storm will bring a catastrophic storm surge to the coast and torrential rain inland with 6-12 inches forecast along the coast and into the mountains of central Mexico. Dangerous flash flooding and mudslides are expected. Evacuations in coastal areas are being rushed to completion this morning. Patricia should make landfall later this afternoon or early this evening.

AccuWeather forecast calls for warm winter in Canada

The AccuWeather Canadian winter forecast was released on Wednesday. It is predicting that a strengthening El Nino will produce a record warm winter across the country. (AccuWeather.com)

According to U.S.-based AccuWeather, most of Canada is going to have a warmer-than-normal winter this year. The question is: How warm? David Phillips, Senior Climatologist for Environment Canada, is calling this year's event a "Super El Nino", the Goliath of El Ninos. As I've mentioned before, El Ninos tend to create a more zonal or west to east weather pattern, trapping the really cold air across the far north and allowing mild Pacific air to dominate the country. What this usually means is that most of Canada is much warmer and dryer than in a normal winter, about 3 to 5 degrees Celsius above the long-term averages. There are some exceptions. A few cool parcels of air can break off from time to time and move across southern Quebec and Atlantic Canada. This usually results in a brief period of cold weather followed by an increased risk of snow or freezing rain. In January and February we may see an increase in coastal storms affecting eastern Quebec and the western Maritimes with heavy snow. One or two may clip southern Quebec.

1997-1998 El Nino
During the last El Nino of at least this strength in the winter of 97/98 (and this one looks stronger), I was living in southern Saskatchewan and we basically had no winter. That included a dry, brown, almost hot Christmas Day 1997 that had us outside playing street hockey in our t-shirts. Just two weeks later, Montreal would get hit by the Great Ice Storm. The week-long event in early January 1998 was responsible for 28 deaths and damages exceeding 1.75 billion across Ontario, Quebec, New York and New Brunswick. There is some concern we may see another ice storm this year, but I caution, every event is different and specific details are yet to be determined at this point. We can only forecast trends this far out. Expect warmer weather, less snow and lower hydro bills for the winter of 2015-2016.

Warmer than normal end to October in Montreal

A relatively mild and tame zonal flow is forecast to end October and start November in Montreal. AccuWeather.com

It looks like a warmer end to October and start to November is on tap for Montreal and southern Quebec. The cold air that invaded the region this past weekend will not likely occur again for several weeks. This is typical as we head into an El Nino fall and winter. El Nino is the warm phase of regular water temperature fluctuations in the tropical Pacific off the coast of South America. This event typically alters weather patterns around the globe and produces much milder winters in southern Canada.

This morning, we are already befitting from the milder air. The temperature is 12C (54F) here on L'Ile Perrot and at Trudeau Airport, a full 19 degrees above the observed temperature just 24 hours ago. A stiff southwest breeze has been blowing all night, gusting up to 60km/h at Trudeau Airport. A frontal boundary to our north will slip back south of Montreal today with more scattered showers and slightly cooler air by tonight. After a high of 13C (55F) today, we can expect a dip down to -1C tonight with frost. Wednesday will see more clouds and showers as the front oscillates back to the north with a high of 7C (45F). The roller coaster weather will continue into the weekend with one day of sunshine and cooler temperatures followed by one with milder air and showers. The image above shows you how the current pattern can keep Montreal extremely variable as the jet stream slips just north or south of the St. Lawrence Valley.