Thursday, August 23, 2012

Weak Isaac passes near Leeward Islands

Tropical Storm Isaac in the lower right portion of the loop is expected to strengthen.
Tropical Storm Isaac continues to suck in dry air this morning keeping a cap on any rapid development. The storm remains about 255 miles southeast of San Jaun, Puerto Rico moving west at 12 mph with 45mph winds. A NOAA Recon Flight into the system found Isaac slightly weaker and a little further south. The storm is still forecast to gain strength and likely reach hurricane status before brushing Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Once into the straits of Florida re-development is likely. At this time it is difficult to say what the impacts will be on Florida and the Eastern US, but there will be some. It is unlikely at this time for New England and southern Quebec that we are looking at another Irene. For the time being the focus of attention will be on Haiti and the Dominican Republic where even a modest tropical storm can produce severe and life threatening floods.

The forecast track of Isaac into the day 3 to 5 time frame now has the storm affecting Key West and the west coast of Florida as he rides around a strong ridge of high pressure along the east coast. That Bermuda high will give southern Quebec and Ontario spectacular late summer weather into the weekend with juts a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms and daytime highs near 30C.

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