Friday, October 26, 2012

Hurricane Sandy could impact Ontario/Quebec

This is a very complicated forecast with many different scenarios at play. Plan for a prolonged period of inclement weather along the east coast of the US and into New England, New York, Ontario and Quebec from Saturday through Halloween. Check back often for frequent updates and tweets on the progress of this storm.
Current NHC forecast for Sandy.
The National Hurricane Center official forecast track for Hurricane Sandy has gone from well offshore earlier in the week to a landfall now along the Delaware Coast by Monday. Sandy this morning has 80 mph winds and is located about 485 miles (780km) south southeast of Charleston, South Carolina.

As far as the forecast goes, keep in mind this will be a large storm in size and will affect 100's of miles of coastline and interior areas so don't concentrate on the center. It is becoming very clear that Sandy will have a tremendous impact on the weather in the Monday to Halloween time frame from the Carolina's into southern Ontario and perhaps Quebec. With a west shift in the forecast track the heaviest rain in the order of 100mm (4 inches) could fall in our regions. In addition to that strong winds down the St. Lawrence Valley could exceed 100km/h.

Now I don't want to hype up any storm but bear in mind this is a hurricane coming into an area that does not get these storms on regular intervals. In addition we have several other important weather factors acting upon Sandy to make this a prolonged and perhaps disruptive event. Only time will tell and write the history books, so we will have to wait and see. In any event keep in mind that we are looking at rain and wind next week. In the short term high pressure will give us a spectacular day today with temperatures warming into the 20C range. (The record high for Montreal for today is 20.6 in 1963 so we have a shot at it). A strong cold front will advance into the area on Saturday with showers and perhaps some thunder. This front will stall over the area on Sunday and become the focus for tropical moisture streaming northwest from Sandy. Winds and rain will only increase in coverage from that point into Halloween.

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