Saturday, January 02, 2010

Winter Storm Update

Heavy Snowfall Warning: Sherbrooke, Townships, areas south of the St. Lawrence Valley
Winter Storm Warning: Vermont and northern New York counties

Low pressure has finally developed off the southern coast of New England and is slowly moving west towards Maine. This system will be enhanced by a second area of low pressure in the upper atmosphere and become quite intense later today and tonight. Models have it as low as 970mb. The forecast has been very hard to nail down with this system because it is breaking some of the usual rules. The result of the storm moving west will be increasing deep Atlantic moisture across all of our area including eastern Ontario, Quebec and south into New England and New York. Radar is already showing a shift in precipitation, now coming from the northeast to the southwest. I believe any warm air as depicted in the Environment Canada forecast will stay well east of our area. As a matter of fact we are currently -6C here on Ile Perrot, down several degrees from this morning. In addition the snow and wind have been picking up. It will continue to do so for the balance of the day and Sunday. Total storm accumulations will be 25 to 35cm for New England, 20-30cm for the regions south of the St. Lawrence Valley and 15-20cm for all other regions. While no warnings are posted for Montreal, the weather will make travel difficult later today and especially tonight.

Closer to the center of the low, heavy precipitation, fierce winds and a storm surge are affecting coastal Maine and Nova Scotia. Heavy snow is falling inland in New Brunswick and PEI and over the Gaspe. Winds are expected over 150km/h at Cape Breton.

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