Thunderstorms & SNOW

Heavy snow over Washington and Montana is now moving into Alberta and Saskatchewan. KOMOnews.com photo

The title of my blog entry this morning was fairly accurate as winter and spring wage a battle across many portions of Canada. Tonight heavy thunderstorms are moving across eastern Ontario into western Quebec. Thunderstorm Warnings have been posted for Lachute and St. Jerome. By 9pm these storms will be near metro Montreal. Heavy rain, 90km/h winds and reports of marble size hail have been observed with these storms in Prescott/Russell and Glengarry Counties in Ontario. Rain will continue overnight and into early Friday.

Meanwhile a strong cold front is moving across Alberta associated with low pressure near Red Dear. Winds are gusting to 100km/h across the southern Rockies and into Saskatchewan. Steady rain has turned to snow in many parts of Alberta and the snow will spread into Saskatchewan. Calgary is reporting near zero visibility in snow with winds of 95km/h. Portions of the central grain belt could see 15cm of snow. Heavy wet snow is also falling in northern Ontario and in northern Michigan. Over 10cm of wet snow fell today in Sudbury where it was over 27C just days ago.

Dueling Seasons

Despite the heavy snow this winter, record heat is producing a serious fire threat across portions of the northeast including New Jersey - shown above yesterday, where temperatures were in the upper 80's.

There is lots to talk about this morning, and I will try to maintain some order, rather than my usual routine of being all over the place. Lets start with yesterday and that line of thunderstorms that raced through Montreal around 8:45am. They dumped about 15mm of rain in just 15 minutes across portions of the island and south onto the south shore. It also produced reports of 1cm hail. Temperatures yesterday remained chilly all day in Montreal and along the US border as we remained in the cool sector. Just south of us more record heat was sending temperatures soaring into the 90's. Boston had a high of 91F, the earliest 90 degree day ever. They usually do not surpass 90 until June 5 on average. A cross section of the temperatures across the region from north to south at 3pm yesterday looked like this, Montreal 13C, Burlington 15C, Montpelier 25C, Springfield, VT 29C, Boston 32C and New York City 32C. I think you can see where the warm front was lying.

Today is very different in the region. A cold northeast wind has dropped temperatures down to 3C here in Montreal with drizzle. We can expect it to remain chilly for the next 36 hours with steady rain at times and the risk of thunderstorms as well. Winds will be gusty from the northeast at 30-50km/h. The air has chilled sufficiently enough in the western Ottawa Valley for freezing rain this morning. On the back side if our rainmaker, low pressure moving across the Ohio Valley, snow is falling in Wisconsin, northern Michigan and northwest Ontario. From 10-15cm of wet snow is forecast. Showers and thunderstorms will continue across our region into Friday before it slowly clears out with a risk of some flurries. The weekend looks sunny and seasonable.

First thunderstorm

9:38 Watch expired - storms are off to the east of the city.

9am: A severe thunderstorm watch as been posted for Montreal until 10:30am. More thunderstorms are developing in the moist unstable air mass and producing very heavy rain, lightning and small hail. One passing over the West Island at this hour is dumping torrential rain with low visibility and very dark skies. These showers will move across the island over the next hour.

The first thunderstorm of this young 2010 season rattled across Ile Perrot and the western tip of Montreal island at around 3am this morning. Thunderstorms developed along a warm front that is stuck here in the St. Lawrence Valley. It will slowly begin to sag back south again into upstate New York leaving us on the cool and unstable side of it. A northeast breeze will hold temperatures around 12C today in Montreal while they will reach 20C in Toronto and Burlington and 30C in New York City. Low clouds and fog along with drizzle will also occur here in Montreal. In the last hour more thunderstorms have fired up in the Ottawa Valley and are rapidly moving east so we may have another rumble or two of thunder. The storm overnight dropped about 15mm of rain into my gauge at home.

Moving forward we can expect low pressure from the Midwest to move into our region Thursday with another 10-20mm of rain followed by much cooler weather and the risk of a flurrie or two Friday and early Saturday. Skies will then clear out for a sunny and seasonable weekend.

This morning temperatures are already approaching the mid 70's (22 to 24C) across the Ohio Valley and mid Atlantic, while in Denver and across Colorado, Wyoming and the Dakotas, light snow is falling with temperatures below freezing.

Battle of the seasons

Lake Champlain looked inviting in the 80 degree weather this past Saturday.
However the National Weather Service is warning people to stay away from area rivers and lakes that are running high and fast, and most importantly are only about 36F (2C) at this time of year. Hypothermia can occur in seconds. The same rule applies on both sides of the border.
ValleyWX Pic

That may have been one of the best long weekends ever. Bright sunshine and record high temperatures in the upper 70's (20's C) on Friday and Saturday, were followed by decent weather with very mild temperatures for Sunday and Monday. While no records were broke yesterday the temperatures remained well above normal. Record warmth is being felt all along the eastern seaboard with temperatures in the 70's and 80's or about 20 to 30 degrees above normal. The normal high in Montreal is about 43F (8C) for April 6. Despite clouds and showers from and advancing warm front today, we will still reach the 55 to 60F (13 to 15C) range. Rain will develop along that front today in the St. Lawrence Valley, and taper off after midnight tonight. Warmer temperatures with some breaks are possible on Wednesday in the warm sector. A sharp gradient will be in place from north to south with temperatures in the upper 70's in southern New England to near 60 (16C) in Montreal tomorrow. A cooler pattern with more rain and even some flurries is possible by Friday.

Meanwhile out west, winter continues with heavy snow falling across the Rockies and northern plains. In between, heavy thunderstorms are forecast in the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and eventually the Great Lakes and northeast by late tomorrow. We may even hear a rumble of thunder in Montreal for the first time this season.

Summer warmth

5pm UPDATE: New record highs today: 25C Montreal, 28C Ottawa and Prescott/Ogdensburg. Lake Ontario is keeping Kingston cool at 17C while just up the 401 Brockville is 27C.
Meanwhile the cool Atlantic is keeping Boston at 11C (52F) while most other locations in New England are in the 75-80F range with the exception of the immediate Lake Champlain shore line and as mentioned the immediate New England coast.

It appears we will skip a season, at least for the next two days. Strong high pressure will dominate the weather along the Atlantic coast and New England into southern Quebec and Ontario. The warm sunshine and strong southerly flow will push the mercury to summer readings of about 20 degrees above normal to record highs of 25C in Montreal and 23 to 27C in most regions away from the rivers or lakes. The cooler bodies of water will keep temperatures down in places like Kingston. The record high in Montreal for today was 16C set in 2009 and for tomorrow's date it is 21C set in 1981. If all goes as planned we should shatter those records. Temperatures are responding slowly this morning as areas of fog burn off. But they are coming up nicely to our west and south with readings already near the 17C mark along the US/Ontario borders.

Historic New England flooding

The month of March has produced some of the heaviest rainfall in recent memory across New England and the middle Atlantic states. Yesterday was no different as nearly 7 inches of rain fell in Rhode Island and Massachusetts producing record breaking - life threatening floods. Flooding of this magnitude has not been seen since the early 1950's when back to back hurricanes, Connie and Donna flooded the region. The Pawtuxet River is cresting at nearly 9 feet over flood stage and has forced closure of Interstate 95 near Warwick. Major flooding has forced thousands out of their homes with rivers continuing to rise in Rhode Island, Massachusetts and Connecticut. The map below shows how much rain fell during the most recent storms. The heaviest rain remained just to our south along the US border. Some regions have had almost 2 feet or rain in March.

WARM MARCH
Montreal received about 25mm of rain over the last week to bring our monthly total to only 59.2mm (2.2 inches). That amount fell on only 6 days of the month. We normally have precipitation on 13 days during March. The incredible stats are our daily maximum temperatures and snowfall. The average maximum was 7.7C compared to a normal of 2.2C. The mean average was a warm 3.3 compared to the normal of -2.3C. We recorded only 1.4cm of snow officially at Dorval, or less than one inch. Unbelievable for a "winter" month. We are looking at potential record highs on both Friday and Saturday with temperatures reaching 25C.

More rain - then summer warmth

Low pressure continues to move along the Atlantic coast from Cape Hatteras north to New York City by later today. Copious amounts of moisture along with strong winds and pounding surf have been affecting the east coast for the last 24 hours. Some regions have had nearly 100mm (4 inches) of rain with another 2-4 inches is likely before it tapers off later today. Montreal received 13.2mm yesterday, before skies cleared for a frosty overnight. It reached -1C this morning with frost on the cars and a spattering of black ice on some area roadways. Another round of steady rain and gusty northeast winds will move inland towards the St. Lawrence Valley later today, but Montreal will remain on the western edge, so while the rain will be steady, we will not see anywhere near the amounts recorded along the east coast of the US.

Flooding continues to be a major issue from New Hampshire across Massachusetts and southern Connecticut and into new jersey and New York. parts of New jersey are experiencing the worst flooding in over 25 years. In Massachusetts the Governor has declared a state of emergency, and the National Guard has been called out.

After the rain tapers off late Wednesday, skies will clear out under strong high pressure, and record setting warmth and sunshine will move into the east for the Easter long weekend. Look for sunshine and temperatures approaching June values from 24 to 27C.

Rainy start...warm finish

Low pressure moving along the Atlantic coast will produce steady rain in Montreal today with heavy wet snow along the north shore of the St. Lawrence River north of Anticosti Island. This storm will bring 15-25mm of rain to the southwest part of the province and at least 15cm of wet snow to eastern parts of Quebec. This same low pressure area was responsible for several tornadoes last night over the Carolina's, and heavy rain once again from eastern North Carolina across the Delmarva and metro New York and into New England. This region can expect 3 to 6 inches of rain in the next 24 to 36 hours aggravating the already serious flood situation. This is the third storm to dump heavy rain on the same region in less than two weeks.

The good news is that once the rain moves out by Wednesday, we can expect a large ridge of high pressure to build in from the central US. A bubble of warm, summer like air will arrive just in time for the long Easter weekend. I expect sunshine Friday and Saturday with temperatures over 20C.

Earth Hour

A cold start to the morning in Montreal today as the temperature has reach -10C with a wind chill of -19C. This a far cry from yesterdays high of 13C. The temperature fell rapidly behind an arctic cold front from 12C at 6pm last night to 0C by 11pm. The front was dry in Montreal but did produce some snow squalls east of Quebec City. Today will be sunny and chilly with a brisk wind and a high around -2C. Saturday looks much the same with sunny skies and cool temperatures, before low pressure brings milder air and showers for Sunday.

Earth Hour occurs tomorrow night at 8:30pm local time. You are asked to shut down all lights for one hour to help save the earth and our environment. Earth Hour started in 2007 in Sydney, Australia when 2.2 million homes and businesses turned their lights off for one hour to make their stand against climate change. One year later Earth Hour had become a global sustainability movement with more than 50 million people across 35 countries participating. Global landmarks such as the, Sydney Harbour Bridge, The Cross on Mt. Royal here in Montreal, The CN Tower in Toronto, The Golden Gate Bridge in San Francisco, and Rome’s Colosseum, all stood in darkness, as symbols of hope for a cause that grows more urgent by the hour. Visit HERE for more information.

Very Cold Friday

Snowy Wednesday morning in Beaconsfield, QC. ValleyWX Pic

Our roller coaster weather week continues along, with the greatest dip poised for tonight in Montreal and Ottawa and across the region. Yesterday Montreal reached 11C after a morning start with sub-zero temperatures and snow cover. The afternoon sun was warm and temperatures rebounded to well above normal. Today will be sunny and very warm once again on increasing southwest winds in advance of an arctic boundary. That front will cross the St. Lawrence Valley by 8pm this evening with showers and some snow squalls along it and a dramatic drop in temperatures. In a month that has been above normal almost everyday along with no sub-zero highs (very rare for March), tonight and tomorrow will feel frigid. The front will drop temperatures from today's high of plus 12C down to -10 to -13C overnight, a swing of almost 25 degrees. Along with the cold Arctic air will be strong winds from the southwest, backing to the northwest tonight and gusting to 50km/h producing noticeable wind chills. Any precipitation will freeze on area roads so keep this in mind while traveling. Friday will be sunny, but very cold, and perhaps our fist below freezing high for the month at -2C.

A quick wrap up of Tuesday's storm, it produced about 16mm of rain in Montreal with the heaviest rainfall southeast of the city. Lennoxville had 33mm and parts of Vermont over 50mm. Heavy snow fell north of Quebec City with Le Massif in the Charlevoix region recording 47cm. Winds gusted to 63km/h in Montreal, and 94km/h on Ile d'Orleans near Quebec City.

Storm Update

Cold air is pouring into the St. Lawrence Valley at this hour, as low pressure moves across southern New England to lie near Boston tonight. Strong northeast winds have dropped the mercury to 0C in Montreal with freezing drizzle. In Quebec City a winter storm warning is in effect for heavy snow and blowing snow. It is currently -2C there with east winds at 63km/h and 1km visibility in ice pellets. Keep this in mind if you are traveling north and east of Montreal. The heaviest precipitation is now over for Montreal, but light snow or freezing drizzle is possible well into the evening hours. Travel with caution today and expect delays north and east of Montreal. Peak wind gusts in the Quebec City area could reach 90km/h.

Heavy rain

Issued by The National Weather Service
Burlington, VT
11:24 am EDT, Tue., Mar. 23, 2010

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE EAST BRANCH AUSABLE RIVER AT AUSABLE FORKS. * UNTIL THIS EVENING... OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED. * AT 10:15 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.5 FEET. * FLOOD STAGE IS 7.0 FEET. * MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. * FORECAST... RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 7.1 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY THIS EVENING. * IMPACT... AT 7.0 FEET... MINOR FLOODING CAN OCCUR IN KEENE. WATER BEGINS TO OVERFLOW ONTO HULLS FALLS ROAD... ROUTE 73... AND ROUTE 9N NEAR MARCY FIELD. HIGH WATER WILL IMPACT INTERESTS AT ALICE FALLS NEAR KEESEVILLE.

Low pressure this morning over Pennsylvania will move northeast to near Boston by late today. Radar at 8am (shown above) was showing heavy rain over the Montreal region, it has been falling since about 4am. Winds are gusting out of the northeast to 63km/h at Montreal, and 65km/h at Quebec City. While Montreal is reporting rain at 1C, the northern edge of the precipitation is falling as freezing rain and snow. Mirabel is 0C with freezing rain and Quebec City is -1C with snow. The cold rain, freezing rain and snow will continue all day with 20-40mm of total precipitation expected. Heavy snow is falling north of Quebec City into the Saguenay and Charlevoix regions. Roads are very poor in those areas as well as north of Montreal, where several schools have been closed for the day. Traffic is slow in metro Montreal due to water accumulation on area roadways and reduced visibility in heavy rain.

Weather Warnings are in effect for heavy rain, freezing rain and snow in most regions outside of metro Montreal including Eastern Ontario and the Ottawa Valley. Flood watches have been posted for New York and Vermont. Winds will remain strong today gusting over 60km/h. All precipitation will end overnight tonight as a period of wet snow with 5 to 10cm (2-4 inches) expected in many parts of southern Quebec and eastern Ontario, with a little less in the city.

Warnings Posted

Low pressure is pushing a wide area of precipitation across New England, Ontario and into Quebec at this hour. Winds are increasing from the northeast, and cooler air is being drawn down the St. Lawrence Valley. Expect rain to begin shortly across the city and mix with freezing rain or wet snow overnight and Tuesday. The heaviest rain will fall in New England where 50 to 100mm (2-4 inches) is possible. Flood watches have been posted for Vermont and New York. Across our regions heavy rain is forecast in the Townships where warnings have been issued for up to 50mm. Meanwhile the colder air in place over the Laurentians and Ottawa Valley will result in pockets of freezing rain. All precipitation will end as a period of wet snow late Tuesday with 1-3cm possible. Freezing rain warnings are in effect for all of Eastern Ontario north of the St. Lawrence Valley and for the Ottawa Valley. They have also been posted for the Laurentians. Meanwhile heavy wet snow is forecast from Quebec City north and east with upwards of 15-20cm expected. Winds will be gusty out of the northeast to 60km/h. Travel will become very poor on area highways tonight and continue tomorrow, especially northeast on highway 20 towards Quebec City, north on the 15 into the Laurentians and northwest on the 40 towards the 417 and Ottawa.

Winter returns

Winter has returned to southern Quebec with cool temperatures and nearly 5cm of wet snow on Sunday. Another storm is poised to affect the region later today followed by the coldest air of the month to end this week.

Low pressure over the Ohio Valley is forecast to move into southern New England by Tuesday morning. A warm front will lift northward to just south of the St. Lawrence Valley overnight. In advance of this storm heavy rain will develop across New England and move north into Ontario and Quebec. The rain may begin as a period of freezing rain in the St. Lawrence Valley and Montreal as northeast winds keep the temperatures at or just above 0C. On Tuesday strong northeast winds and heavy precipitation are forecast. This system will bring 25mm (1 inch) or so of precipitation falling either as rain or a mix here in Montreal. There is the possibility that some warnings may be required, especially for the regions north or Montreal and the Ottawa Valley.

This same system dumped heavy wet snow across the southern plains over the weekend and is producing heavy rains across Pennsylvania and Ohio. Over 50mm (2 inches) of rain is forecast for the water logged region of southern New England and metro New York where flood watches have been raised. More warnings may be required later today and I will post them as they are issued. Check back this afternoon for an update.

First Day of Spring?

Highway 20 near the Ontario border today. Visibility was under 1km at times in wet snow. ValleyWX Pic

After an unseasonably mild month of March that has seen the mercury above freezing each and everyday including record highs in the mid-teens this past week, what would you expect for the first full day of spring? Exactly snow!

It has been snowing all day in the St. Lawrence Valley from Cornwall to Montreal. In the last several hours the steady snow has lowered visibility to under a kilometre at times on area highways and the snow is beginning to stick in many places. A couple of centimetres has accumulated on grassy areas and cars here in Ile Perrot, and as the temperatures continues to lower, roads will become icy as well. Many people took their winter tires off this past week, which I think may have been a little too early. The snow will taper off after midnight followed by a cloudy and milder day Monday. Another low pressure area in the Ohio Valley will move south of Montreal Tuesday pushing heavy precipitation into the St. Lawrence and Ottawa Valley's. At this time it appears that most of it will fall as rain but a significant amount of freezing rain is possible in many areas including Ottawa and Montreal Monday night. More details on that tomorrow morning.

In the meantime if you are travelling the 401/20 or 40/417 tonight expect some slick spots and reduced visibility for several more hours.

Weekend Update

Our region is in for more record warmth on this last day of winter, as the mercury soars to about 15C in Montreal and 19C in Burlington, Vermont. What a winter or non-winter it has been across southern Quebec. In March we have had no snow at all, the high temperatures have all been above freezing everyday of the month, and only 17mm of precipitation has been recorded at the airport.

The weekend looks variable as several fronts affect southern Quebec. It will remain mild, but clouds will be on the increase along with showers by Sunday. A steady rain may develop into Monday before it turns cooler with a snowflake or two. No major storms are on the horizon, but it will turn much cooler into next week as temperatures settle back to normal values for late March.

Spring arrives at 1:32pm EDT on Saturday.

Record Warmth

Record high temperatures were scattered across the region yesterday including 13.1C in Montreal and 15C in Ottawa, both well above the normal high of 2C for mid-March. It was 14.4C in Kemptville, ON and even 20C in Calgary for the warm spot in the country. High pressure will dominate our weather again today with the early spring sun pushing the mercury to 15C. A weak cold front tonight will bring a few clouds and maybe a sprinkle. It will be sunny and a little cooler Thursday before low pressure heads for the St. Lawrence Valley this weekend with clouds and showers. At this time it still appears that the temperature will come back to normal next week with the chance of some snow or rain. The warm weather has resulted in a rapid melting of all the snow pack. That combined with the weekend rains is producing fast, cold and high running water on area rivers, streams and lakes. Be very careful on or near any ice or water for the time being.

New England Flooding

Rapid snow melt and heavy rain produced flooding across New England. Below: heavy surf damaged this home on Plum Island, Mass. (Boston.com photos)


Flooding spread across metro New York and New Jersey into Connecticut and Massachusetts yesterday and continues this morning. Numerous rivers are at record flood stage including the Merrimack River along the New Hampshire border with Massachusetts. Heavy rain and rapid snow melt have combined to produce what many had feared after this winters heavy snow, a rapid melt. Thankfully the storm that caused over 5 inches of rain and wind damage is moving into the Atlantic Ocean this morning. Skies are clearing out in all regions, and it will be sunny and warm for several days to help dry things out.

The next chance for rain in Montreal will come later this week. While it remains mild, and today is the official day in Quebec that you can remove snow tires, my advice would be to wait. Indications are there will be a major shift in the weather pattern the last week of March that could produce some snow in southern Quebec and Ontario. Stay Tuned! For the short term enjoy the sunshine and 14C weather today and Wednesday.

Worst storm since 1985

Damage in Scarsdale, NY. (NY Times Photo)

The storm that swept the metro New York region this weekend was the worst since hurricane Gloria in 1985. Winds of over 70mph tore down thousands of trees, crushing cars, homes and in some cases people. The storm left almost a half a million customers without power. This morning over 300,000 are still in the dark in metro New York, including Long Island, southwest Connecticut and New Jersey. In addition to the wind, coastal flooding and heavy rain has left many regions under water. Nearly 5 inches of rain fell with rivers still rising. Some evacuations will be needed especially in Massachusetts.

Montreal remained on the western edge of the storm with 50km/h winds (30mph) and about 18mm of rain or about 3/4 inch. In Montreal the sun is shinning this morning and it will be a fair and mild work week. Most of our snow is now gone with the exception of some dirty piles in parking lots.

Storm Update

Brooklyn, NY from the New York Times

As of 8am EDT this morning, a strong storm continues to spin off the Delaware coast. Abundant moisture and strong winds are feeding inland across New York, eastern Ontario and southern Quebec. The temperature in Montreal has been falling since late afternoon Saturday, and we are now at 1C with a rain/snow mix and northeast winds at 50km/h. The rain and cold temperatures with gusty winds will continue all day in the St. Lawrence Valley. Further south snow is accumulating across the highest elevations of the Green Mountains, so a winter storm warning has been posted for 4 to 7 inches of wet snow in that region. Coastal areas continue to see flooding and pounding waves. Flooding is also occurring across southern New England and western New York. Travel today with great care as roads are wet and in some cases snow is falling.

Of note the death toll is at 5 from falling trees in the New York metro region. Power remains out to hundreds of thousands across the tri-state region. Highways are closed from flooding and trees are down everywhere, too many to count.

Another strong Nor'Easter

One of thousands of trees down in New Jersey. NJ.com Photo

A powerful east coast storm is pounding the region from the Carolina's northward into New York and coastal New England. The storm has produced hurricane force wind gusts today causing widespread damage and coastal flooding. Winds gusted to 67mph at JFK in New York City and over 50mph in southern Ontario. Power is out to over 450,000 homes in New York and New Jersey. Several thousand homes lost power in southern Ontario. Flooding rains are occurring in metro New York and southern New England. Numerous trees have fallen and the wind has taken several roofs off as well. Trees have crushed cars and homes on Long Island, where over 125,000 customers are without power. The New Jersey Turnpike had to be closed at Exit 7 due to debris being blown onto the highway, and rail service has been suspended in that state. The region had an incredible amount of snow this winter, so the ground is saturated increasing concerns for major flooding. Nearly 4 inches (100mm) of rain is forecast before the storm pulls east out to sea. Strong winds and steady rain also moved into Ontario today from Cornwall west into the GTA. The rain and strong winds are forecast to move into Vermont and Quebec overnight. Winds are expected between 40-60km/h in Montreal, where they are currently gusting over 40km/h. The heaviest rain should remain south of the city.

• Today is the anniversary of the big 1993 Superstorm that struck from Cuba and Mexico to Quebec and east into Atlantic Canada. Over 40cm of snow fell in Montreal with zero visibility for hours. Power was out and roads were closed in the city. It was the only day in my 10 years at the Montreal Gazette that our paper did not get out to our customers. Nearly 300 deaths were reported along the storms path with damage of over 6 billion from snow, flooding, tornadoes, strong wind and waves.

Weekend Update

It was a poor decision to play with the clock on the weekends and take away an hour from us. Why not do it in the middle of the workday! On that note, remember to do just that task before going to bed Saturday night, spring forward one hour.

The weekend will be decent in southern Quebec and eastern Ontario as we remain on the northern edge of yet another east coast storm, the same scenario that has played out all season. Saturday will be partly cloudy and mild, while Sunday will be much cooler with showers. This time it is a warmer storm system with heavy rain (not snow) and thunderstorms expected from the Ohio Valley into the middle Atlantic and northeast US. Winds and clouds will begin to increase in the St. Lawrence Valley late Saturday and into Sunday. With the storm passing to our south and east, winds in the valley will be out of the northeast, this should result in a very cool, raw day for the big St. Patrick's Day Parade in Montreal. While I think the heavy rain will stay to our south, any precipitation at plus 2C with a northeast wind will make it feel uncomfortable outside. It will warm again next week under clearing skies.

It has been a very dry start to March, just like February. To date in Montreal we have had 0.0mm of precipitation. You have to go back to February 27th for the last precipitation. Normally we should have 73.6mm for the month of March. February recovered during the last 10 days or so ending the month with 49mm including 47.8cm of snow. Normally we should have 61.5mm and 43cm of snow for February. So ironically we had more snow than normal last month, go figure, it sure did not show.

Mild weather contiues

High pressure continues to dominate the weather in southern Quebec and eastern Ontario with mild and sunny March weather. Temperatures will continue to be well above normal right through the weekend. A weak cold front this morning is producing some clouds and a few sprinkles south of Montreal across the Adirondacks. Clouds will clear and it will be another sunny and warm day with temperatures pushing 10C. Strong low pressure over the Midwestern US is producing very heavy rain and some severe weather in the form of hail and scattered tornadoes across the southern plains and into the southeast. This storm will move north and east and along the Atlantic coast with heavy rain and strong winds. The weather will deteriorate across the St. Lawrence Valley Saturday and into Sunday with clouds on the increase, scattered showers and gusty winds. I think at this time that the heaviest rain will remain south of the region from southern New England into the middle Atlantic states. This situation may change, but at this time the heavy rain will remain south of Quebec and hopefully the St. Patrick's Day parade in Montreal on Sunday will be dry.

Oklahoma Tornado

Post #900 (Hard to believe, thanks for reading!)

A true sign of the seasons yesterday as severe thunderstorm and tornado activity was reported across the southern plains of the US. Low pressure, which will become our weekend weather maker, moved from California across the southern plains producing the heavy storms and spawning a tornado near Hammon, Oklahoma. No injuries were reported, but damage was significant and 5 homes were destroyed. Tornado activity typically increases across this region from March into April and May before it shifts northward. On average Oklahoma records 4 March tornadoes, last year there was only one.

Meanwhile Montreal was sunny and a warm 10C yesterday as most of our snow continued to dissolve away. The forecast is for sunny and mild weather into Friday morning before the southern plains storm moves into the region with rain for the weekend.

Fair, Dry & Mild

High pressure will continue to dominate our weather this week with sunshine and mild temperatures. A cool breeze will be around today gusting to 40km/h but after that it should be very pleasant for the balance of the work week. High temperatures will be around plus 7C with cool overnight lows around -5C. Most of our snow is now gone with the exception of where it was piled up by the plows. Not sure if that is it for our winter, but I would say not. The next chance for precipitation and clouds will not come until late Friday when low pressure moves in from the deep south.

Weekend Update

A very simple forecast for Montreal, Ottawa, Plattsburgh and the region, sunny and mild. Temperatures will reach 6C (43F) on both Saturday and Sunday with abundant sunshine. It would be even warmer, but I believe the snow cover and north wind will keep our temperatures in check. A weak storm system will slide across the Great Lakes on Monday with flurries or showers followed by sunny and dry weather for the balance of the week. Another larger storm may affect the region by next weekend, but early indications are that is will follow the similar path of the winter and pass south of New England and miss Montreal.

The Blizzard of 1971

Classic images of the Blizzard of 1971 in Montreal. My most vivid weather memories were of the small sidewalk plows like the one in the photo above and the scores of snowmobiles.

As we prepare to enjoy our first round of spring weather, my thoughts are on March 4, 1971, a day that I remember so well. I was only 5 years old when the largest blizzard in Montreal history slammed the city. I spent the day literally in the windowsill of our duplex on LaSalle Boulevard in Verdun watching the events unfold. We were right on the St. Lawrence River and the wind howled down that street. Little did I know that day would spark a lifelong passion in weather. It remains to this day the largest snowstorm to strike this city and parts of the province. The 24 hour snow totals were impressive with 47cm in Montreal and over 60cm in other parts of Quebec and Ontario. Drifts were over 6 feet high. That was just a small part of the story. This storm was an Atlantic nor'easter with the ferocity of a hurricane. The barometric pressure during the height of the storm dropped to 972mb or that of a Category 2 hurricane and winds gusted to over 120km/h in many parts of the St. Lawrence Valley including 110km/h at then Dorval Airport. I spent the day in the window watching snowmobiles go back and forth in the zero visibility for hours rescuing motorists and delivering people to area hospitals. Roads were closed including the 401 and 20 and power was out to thousands of Hydro customers.

I found some photos from a news report by Radio Canada and posted them on this entry.
Here is another link to find out much more on the Blizzard of 1971.

Another near miss

From AccuWeather.com, a dog frolics in the snow across the deep south yesterday as they continue to have our winter!

Low pressure will move from Cape Hatteras, North Carolina to well east of Long Island, NY tonight. Snow has spread from the deep south through the middle Atlantic and into coastal New England today with up to 10cm of wet snow expected. Winds will be strong out of the northeast up to 80km/h. This weather will move into Maine and coastal New Brunswick and Nova Scotia tonight. Meanwhile strong high pressure will build into the St. Lawrence Valley with spring weather for Montreal. The only fly in the forecast will be gusty northeast winds from that Atlantic Ocean storm. They will blow out of the northeast in the order of 20 to 40km/h today making it feel cool and capping the temperature at 2 or 3C. Abundant sunshine will last into the weekend with warm temperatures, well above freezing during the day and just below at night, reaching 8C by Saturday. Yesterday it was colder in parts of Georgia and Alabama than it was in Montreal. Snow fell in Atlanta, closing roads and schools as the bizzaro winter of 2009/10 rolls along.

Early Spring Weather

Partly cloudy days with clear nights and mild temperatures can be expected for the balance of this week. Temperatures will be well above normal in the warm March sun. I expect it to easily make it to 5C across the area today. Montreal was 6C yesterday with plenty of snow melting. At this rate we may see our lawns by the weekend. No precipitation is expected before next Monday. Low pressure developing today near North Carolina will move out into the Atlantic well south of New England. The next threat for any snow or rain will come next Sunday night and Monday.

Enjoy the mild weather but remember, that March and April hold the distinction of having the biggest snowstorms in Montreal and southern Quebec including the record breaking March 4, 1971 storm and the March 13, 1993 super storm as well as on April 4, 1975. You get the idea I could go on there are so many more examples. I guess what I am saying is don't put away the shovel just yet.

In like a lamb

That old March saying is once again upon us "In like a Lamb, out like a Lion"

Well it appears lamb-like across our region today. Low pressure once again along the east coast will provide steady snow and rain from New York City and Boston into Maine and the Maratimes. It will spare our area with the exception of a few showers or flurries and some gusty northwest winds. A few centimetres may accumulate near the US border and into Vermont. Skies will clear out very slowly on Tuesday and high pressure will take over and dominate the weather for the balance of the week with sunny skies and very mild temperatures. Overnight lows will be in the -5 to -8C range with daytime highs in the warm March sun soaring to between 4 and 6C on the plus side. Ice and snow will begin to melt quickly so keep that in mind when venturing near area waterways. Also make sure that drains and catch basins are free of snow and ice so that the winter can flow freely away!

Canada Wins GOLD

Canada 3 USA 2 (OT)

What can I say but thank you to our athletes. Syd the Kid scored in OT to capture the gold medal against the US at the Vancouver Olympics and increase our gold medal total to a record 14. The previous record was 13 gold set by Russia. Thank You! Merci!

3.9 Quake in Montreal region

USGS Map of the tremor

Within the last hour, as I was sitting down watching the bronze medal hockey game, a low rumble resembling that of a jet engine roared through the house in a wave of energy. On a day that has seen several major earthquakes around the world, the Ottawa Valley into the metro Montreal region was rattled by a 3.9 magnitude quake at 22:52 eastern time. The quake was centered near Lachute, Quebec on the Ottawa River about 45km northwest of my location. Earthquake Canada said the quake was felt, but there are no immediate reports of any damage. Meanwhile in Chile the death toll is over 300 from the 8.8 quake this morning. Other quakes have occurred today in northern California, Oklahoma and Japan among others.

Chile Quake & Tsunami

It has been quite a month around the world from storms to quakes and floods. We have had a major earthquake overnight on the Chile coast. It has generated a tsunami that has prompted tsunami warnings for numerous Pacific islands including Hawaii. There is also a tsunami advisory for Vancouver Island. Residents in the warning areas are urged to get to higher ground. Those in the advisory region have been told to get away from area beaches. In Chile, major damage has been reported with casualties. Details are just coming in, but it appears at least 125 people have died, buildings and bridges have collapsed.

**More information on the Tsunami can be found HERE
and on the Quake HERE.

100km/h Winds

Damage in Montreal this morning (Pic J. Elman)

Heavy snow cut power across New England, including in New Hampshire shown above.
(The Baltimore Sun)

With thunderous noise, high winds moved into the St. Lawrence Valley after midnight last night. They gusted over 90km/h in Montreal and up to 100km/h in the Quebec City area. High Wind Warnings are flying up and down the St. Lawrence Valley from Brockville to east of Quebec City. The winds have brought down tree limbs and power lines, and as of 8am Hydro Quebec is reporting 106,000 homes without power in the province.

Strong low pressure will very slowly fill over southeastern New York today, but not before dominating the weather today and into the weekend. Heavy wet snow fell in a wide swath from New York City north and west into southern Quebec and Ontario. Numerous roads were closed with many accidents on both sides of the border. In the last 3 days Montreal has had close to 30cm of wet snow, including 8cm yesterday. The heavy wet snow made last evenings rush hour challenging in the city. It was driven around by the increasing northeast winds. Winds will very slowly drop below warning criteria this morning, but remain high well into the evening. Radar is dry at the moment except for a few flurries over the city. Look for snow to increase in coverage from the south again later this afternoon for Montreal with another 5cm expected along with blowing snow tonight. Temperatures in Montreal will peak at 2C this morning and then slowly drop to 0C for the next day or so. Travel with great care today especially west into Ontario and south into New York. This storm hammered the northeast and New England with heavy wet snow, flooding rains, hurricane force winds and huge waves along the coast.
Some Stats:
Highest Winds: Mt. Washington, NH 119mph, Salem, MA 77mph, Quebec City 60mph, Montreal 50mph.

Snow: Randolf, NH 24" (60cm), Montreal 12" (30cm)

Pressure: Martha's Vineyard, Mass near the center of the storm 975mb, by comparison Montreal also a very low 992mb.

High winds expected

As our current storm begins to end across the region we are already looking at precipitation edging northward from storm number 2. Most of the day today will be relatively tranquil but snow and rain will begin again late this afternoon and continue overnight. I am expecting a slushy mix in Montreal with as much as 10cm west of the city towards Ontario.

Yesterday's system dumped about 20cm of wet snow on Montreal with over 30cm in Burlington, Vermont, and upwards of 50cm over the Townships. This next storm is off the coast of North Carolina this morning near Cape Hatteras. The system is expected to lift northward towards New York City by Friday morning while deepening dramatically. Central pressure is expected to lower to the 970mb range making it a top five winter storm. The heaviest of snow will fall from the Ontario border west while rain is expected in eastern New York and most of southern Quebec. The rain snow line will be very close to Montreal, so the forecast needs to be monitored.

STRONG WINDS
The big weather news with this storm will be the wind. As the storm intensifies winds will come out of the northeast in Montreal and gust over 50km/h. They will increase to 80km/h in gusts tonight, and over 100km/h in the Quebec City region and along the spine of the Green Mountains in Vermont. The storm is expected to linger into this upcoming weekend with wind, flurries and showers. This is a fluid situation with this storm, so I will try to update the blog later today.

As far as warnings go, high wind warnings are in effect for Quebec City and the Beauce region with Winter Weather Advisories in effect for the St. Lawrence Valley of New York. High Wind Watches are also posted for Vermont. Winter Storm Warnings are in effect for western and central New York and for the Niagara and Hamilton regions in Ontario.
Additional warnings may be posted later today.

Storm Continues

Images of the storm on the West Island during the lunch hour today. ValleyWX Pictures

Radar at 2pm is showing light to moderate snow falling from northern New York across eastern Ontario and Southern Quebec. Snow amounts range from 15cm in the Montreal region to as much as 50cm across the region. Over 10,000 homes are without power in Vermont. The snow will taper off to flurries and showers later today. More snow and strong winds are forecast for Thursday as another storm lifts north into the region. Major highways in Montreal are slushy and wet but all other roads are snow packed and icy, travel is not advised into the Townships or along Interstate 87 and 89 today as heavy snow continues to fall. Vermont and New York are forecasting 1 to 2 feet of wet snow.

Warnings Issued

More heavy snow is forecast for the northeast into New England and southern Quebec. Above is a photo from the Salem County News in New Jersey.
They are expecting the third major storm this month.

11:30 am UPDATE: Warnings Extended into our region: Low pressure continues to move north into New England at 11:30am. Heavy snow is now falling in Montreal and warnings have been extended into the Ottawa Valley, Lachute and areas west and north of the city. Heavy Snow Warnings have also been posted for the 401 corridor from the Quebec Border to Prescott, Ontario and north to Highway 43. The snow will accumulate from 15-25cm today. Visibility is low and roads are snow packed and icy. The snow is very heavy and wet. More details later today.


As expected wet snow developed overnight across the region as low pressure moved into southern New England. The snow was the heaviest from Albany into the Catskills north into southern Vermont and the Green Mountains and into the eastern Townships. This morning travel is not recommended on Highway 10 east of Montreal towards Sherbrooke and south along Interstate 89. The snow has accumulated over 15cm with as much as 30cm reported. The heavy wet snow has brought down power lines, and dozens of schools are closed in Vermont and New York. There are reports of tractor trailers stuck on hills along the Eastern Townships Autoroute. Here in Montreal the snow has been much lighter, but roads are icy and snow packed and travel is slow. Around 5cm fell overnight with another 10cm or so expected today. The snow is very elevation dependent and very localized. Even on the Island of Montreal some places are reporting rain while not too far away it is snowing (L'Ile Perrot vs Dorval for example). Winter Storm Warnings remain in effect for Vermont, northern New York, the Townships and Laurentians through tonight.

Our attention will then turn to the next storm developing across the southern plain states. This system will follow a similar path up into southern New England. Heavy snow will fall along and to the west of the storm track from New Jersey and Delaware north into New York and Vermont. Winds will be very strong with this next storm and warnings may be needed. We will clear this storm out of the way today and then deal with the next system. Expect more rain and snow with strong winds to move into Montreal and southern Quebec by late Thursday. Amounts will be difficult to forecast with plenty of warm air arriving with the storm.

Winter Storm update

Wet snow slowed the morning commute this morning in Montreal.

5:30pm UPDATE: Winter Storm Warning has been posted by Environment Canada for the Laurentians for 15-25cm of snow. The snow will mix with rain in Montreal, but we may still see 10-15cm by the time it changes to showers late Wednesday. Travel will be quite changeable region wide with snow covered roads in places and low visibility in heavy wet snow.

Low pressure that moved to our south overnight dumped between 2 and 5cm of wet snow on the region. The snow has since tapered off but will begin again after midnight tonight. Low pressure is expected to deepen along the east coast of the US and move north towards Long Island tonight, and eventually into northern New England. A wide swath of moisture will fall along and to the west of the storm track. At present, Winter Storm Warnings have been posted for Vermont and New Hampshire westward into eastern New York, with Winter Weather Advisories for the St. Lawrence Valley of New York. No warnings have been issued yet for Quebec or Ontario. Snow is expected to accumulate 10 to 20cm across the Warning area with 5-15cm elsewhere including Montreal. The snow will mix with rain on Wednesday. I will update this storm again later today.

Active Weather Week

A slightly cooler but bright Monday morning across the region today as high pressure is in control. This will be short lived, as we are in for a very active weather week. Since my entry last week about so little snow, we have had close to 15cm of wet snow over several days. So much for the record books. We will add to that total this week with snow expected every night and a mix of rain and snow during the daylight hours. Temperatures will be mild, a couple of degrees either side of the freezing point region wide. Today low pressure over the Midwest has prompted heavy snow warnings for southwest Ontario and Winter Storm Warnings in Michigan and Indiana, where 10-20cm is forecast. This storm will slide east and become nearly stationary along the Eastern Seaboard. It will remain there the entire week perhaps even moving back west. This will result in moisture being fed west across New England and southern Quebec. Snow will begin Tuesday and mix with rain at times. We will have periods of snow right into Friday. Precipitation will range from steady at times to completely stopped at others. Amounts are difficult to estimate at this time, but anther 15cm is not out of the question. This weather will have to be monitored closely for the exact time frame when we are expecting the heavier snow. Right now it looks like Tuesday night into Wednesday morning and again late Thursday, advisories may be needed. Today will be the best travel day of the week.

Surprise Snowfall

After a long break, the plows were out across the Island and
here in Beaconsfield this morning. ValleyWX Pic

Who knew that all we had to do to get snow here in Montreal was talk about how little has fallen in February. As expected a frontal trough of low pressure pinwheeled its way from the northeast around strong low pressure in Atlantic Canada. What was not expected was the level of enhancement as the trough crossed our region. Steady snow began last night and has just started to taper off this morning. Officially at the airport close to 6cm has fallen or double our monthly snowfall to date. There was even more off island to the southwest where I estimated 7 or more centimetres when I left the house at 6:30 this morning. The wind and "fluff factor" added to the snow depth. I expect close to 10cm may be the final tally in many regions again especially off island to the south and west, along with blowing snow as winds increase out of the northwest from 30-50km/h. Travel is slow this morning with rush hour resembling that of the first snowfall of the season and not a February snow. The weekend will be cloudy and fairly mild with a good chance of flurries. Next week looks interesting with several storms possibly affecting the region with snow. I will post more on that later today. For the moment if you are travelling allow extra time as roads are snow covered and visibility is lowered.

Snow Drought

The sun rises this morning on low pressure spinning over Newfoundland.

This may be one of the dullest weather periods in my 25 plus years of tracking weather. Just how dull has it been? Day after day of partly cloudy skies with a flurrie or two and moderate temperatures has left us with just 2.8cm of snow for the month of February. Records will be broken if that value holds. It is neither cold nor warm, there has been day after day of stagnant air with very little "weather" to speak of. I hate that term, "no weather" I don't like it when it is used, but really February has been nearly void of active weather in Montreal. This morning low pressure is spinning over Newfoundland and sending a trough over the region. Winds will increase from the northwest and gust to 50km/h with a couple of centimetres of snow overnight tonight and into Friday morning. It will remain unsettled but mild with flurries through the weekend.

A quick comparison between Baltimore and Montreal for snowfall this season. (Baltimore is in brackets) For February: Montreal 2.8cm, Baltimore (125 cm), January: 44.8cm (6cm), December 56.4cm (58cm) and November 5.4cm (0cm). Despite the slow start for Baltimore they win hands down.

Some snow

Sorry folks, every now and then work and life get in the way of weather, and I hate it when that happens. In this case it was work and perhaps a little thing called the Daytona 500 that lasted 7 hours this past Sunday. In any event the weather continues to be tranquil if not downright boring across our region. Low pressure is racing across the Ohio Valley and off the east coast today with up to 15cm of snow along its path. The bulk of the moisture will stay to our south. The storm will intensify off the east coast tonight and dump steady snow cross New England and into Atlantic Canada. Again most of the moisture will stay south and east of Montreal with just a centimetre or two expected. This may bring our monthly snowfall up to a whopping 4cm...unreal!

Temperatures will continue to be very mild for February running close to the freezing point and no colder than -5C at night. The mild and dull trend will last well into this upcoming weekend. Our snow has dwindled down to a few inches scattered about, and most of it is icy and dirty. The snow is not very good for outdoor activities. We could use some new powder.

Weekend Update

We had a beautiful sunrise over the Island of Montreal today, however it is cold. Temperatures are around -13C with a stiff west northwest wind blowing and wind chill values below -22C. Winds will increase today and remain elevated over the weekend in the 20-40km/h range. This is a result of that stubborn storm that affected the US east coast this week. It is beginning to retrograde towards the west and is approaching the Newfoundland coast. It will continue west into Central Quebec over the weekend. The result will be a variable forecast with the chance of light snow intermittently over the weekend and gusty winds. There may be an enhancement in the snowfall late Sunday and Monday as yet another low pressure system approaches the middle Atlantic states. As I said it is a complicated scenario.

So today - partly cloudy and then the balance of the weekend cloudy with scattered snow showers. It will remain chilly. We may end up with several centimetres by the time the weekend is over. Newfoundland, and parts of Nova Scotia and PEI are receiving freezing rain from this system along with very strong winds. Along the Labrador coast, it is snow and blowing snow.

One for the record books

"It's hard to find anything in the

history books of these types of storms back to back."

- National Weather Service meteorologist Stephen Konarik

There are so many numbers that I could use to quantify just how unusual and severe this past week has been from Washington to New York. I have decided to look at hard hit Baltimore (shown above yesterday). That city normally has 18 inches of snow for the season (less than 50 cm). In back to back storms over the past 4 days they have accumulated over 42 inches of snow. Their seasonal total is now well over 70 inches, more than any other season on record dating back to 1893. The previous record was 63 inches set in 1995-96. Combine that with fierce winds of over 40mph and you have truly a Storm of the Century, maybe the last 2 Centuries. Maryland and New Jersey along with southeast Pennsylvania and Delaware were the hardest hit areas once again from yesterdays storm. Snow totals ranged from 1 to 2 feet for most locations including a foot in New York City. Amounts tapered off quickly north of metro New York into Connecticut as the storm pulled out to sea. Maryland has been in the ideal location for this storm track. Copious moisture pulling in off the Atlantic meeting just enough cold air and strong northerly winds. Schools remain closed statewide today. The federal government is also shut down for the 4th straight day at an estimated cost of 100 million a day in lost revenue (their numbers not mine).

Another storm sliding into the Pacific coast will affect the same region by early next week. Montreal will remain on the far northern edge of this system once again with just flurries and low clouds expected. Our snow drought continues, as we are stuck at 2cm for the month. The reality is that is is colder in Washington D.C. with more snow than most of Canada including fair and warm Vancouver, where a lack of snow is a real problem for the upcoming Olympics. Snow is being trucked in...unreal!

Another miss

The weather in Montreal, southern Quebec and into eastern Ontario continues to be very tranquil. Cloud cover from low pressure developing along the US east coast will continue to thicken over the region today along with an increase in northeast winds. Temperatures will be fairly mild at -4C. We are not expecting any precipitation from the second big east coast storm in less than a week. The northern extent of the snow will be from the southern Champlain Valley southward. Only a trace to 2 inches is expected through central Vermont with 2 to 4 inches in southern Vermont and close to Albany, NY. The heaviest snow with this system has fallen from lower Michigan and Southwest Ontario, where Windsor has picked up over 15cm, across Pennsylvania and into the middle Atlantic. Most schools are closed in New York City today and nearly 6000 flights have been canceled from Washington to Boston in anticipation of the snow. The storm is expected to deepen rapidly east of Delaware today and move along the coast towards Long Island. Snow is expected to become heavy in New York and Boston later today with up to a foot expected. Winds will increase from the north and gust to 50mph later today causing near blizzard conditions from Delaware north into New Jersey and metro New York. The storm will affect eastern Newfoundland on Thursday. A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for the Avalon.

The next big storm

Interstate 95 on Sunday

Windsor, Ontario this afternoon is down to 1km visibility in snow and blowing snow with 15-25cm expected. They will be the only region along with the immediate Lake Erie shoreline in Ontario and Quebec to be affected by the latest winter storm. This storm comes rapidly on the heels of this past weekends record breaking blizzard. Some streets have yet to be plowed across the middle Atlantic and airports were just getting back to normal. Power remains out in many locations as this next storm bears down on the region. Snow is expected from Virginia's eastern shore across the DC metro area and northward into New York and southern New England. With a track further north, New York City will be affected this time with up to 30cm expected. Travel once again in the busy northeast corridor will be severely impacted just as it was returning to normal. Coastal areas will have a mix of precipitation, but will, have to deal with high surf and strong winds. The storm is expected to move towards Atlantic Canada by Thursday. Winter Storm Watches at this point are in effect towards Boston.

We are not expecting any snow or weather from this system as the snow drought in Montreal continues. So far in February Montreal has recorded only 2cm of snow or less than 1 inch. On average we should have over 45cm for the month.

Middle: A large storm east of Newfoundland is spreading snow west into Atlantic Canada, New England and Quebec. Top and below: A few pictures from the middle Atlantic storm.

Lots to talk about quickly as I prepare to watch Superbowl 44, Go SAINTS! The weather in Miami, ideal for football, clear and 17C (63F).

The epic east coast snowstorm is over. The stats are stunning to say the least. Nearly 3 feet of snow in many locations with many more recording 24 to 28 inches including Baltimore, Philadelphia, Dover and Washington, some their largest or second largest storm ever. Many highways were closed as well as flights cancelled. Over 300,000 were left without power as the heavy wet snow brought down trees and lines across the Middle Atlantic. The storm is now well east of the area in the open Atlantic. Meanwhile another storm is taking shape across the southwest and will move across the US once again and south of our region.

Lost in all the US east coast news was a large ocean storm east of Newfoundland that pounded that province with heavy snow and fierce winds. The RCMP shut down many roads and advised against any travel. That storm is retrograding towards the coast tonight and has pushed snow down the St. Lawrence Valley and into Quebec City and the Townships. It will continue moving southwest and affect Montreal and northern Vermont. Winter Weather Advisories are in effect for the Champlain Valley of Vermont and the northern Green Mountains. Up to 15cm may fall in those regions, with just a dusting expected in Montreal. Warnings are also in effect for the Gaspe and Saguenay regions for up to 30cm of snow.

Massive southern storm

Heavy wind whipped wet snow along the Jersey Shore in Ocean City last night.

Low pressure continues to deepen east of the Outer Banks this morning. Strong winds and heavy wet snow have been falling in a narrow band from northern North Carolina across Virginia and Maryland through DC and into Delaware and southern New Jersey. As of this morning over a foot had fallen in many locations with upwards of 2 feet forecast. Winds have been gusting over 40mph across the region as well making it nearly impossible to travel. Hundreds of flights have been cancelled in Washington, Baltimore and Philadelphia. The wet snow has brought down trees and power lines as well, with thousands in the dark with no heat. The snow will extend no further north than New York City. The main area of low pressure will move well south of Long Island today. Last night blizzard warnings were in effect along the Delmarva while just to the south on the Outer Banks a tornado watch was in effect. This shows the tremendous dynamics involved with this storm and just how powerful it is.

Our weather in comparison, is well, boring and has been really all winter. Today sunny and chilly with a high around -9C. A few more clouds and maybe a flurrie possible in Montreal tomorrow. There are some indications that the next storm, currently over California may take a path further north and affect New England by late Wednesday. Little or no mention of this in the Canadian forecast. We will have to look at later computer model runs to nail down the exact track and strength.

Middle Atlantic storm

Surface high pressure will dominate the weather across Ontario and Quebec throughout the weekend with sunshine and seasonable temperatures. There is just a slight risk of some clouds and flurries from a strengthening east coast storm late Sunday across Quebec.

Meanwhile that storm will become a powerhouse with heavy snow and blizzard conditions from New Jersey across Delaware and into Maryland and northern Virginia. This area has had more snow than Montreal, and will add another 18-24 inches with strong winds. Coastal flooding will compound the snow along the Jersey and Delaware coasts. If I had the time I know where I would be this weekend!

The storm is forecast to dump heavy rain south of that line into the Carolinas and Georgia. Further south in Superbowl and NASCAR land the weather looks ideal in Miami and Daytona, sunny and mild.

Travel will become impossible in many places including Jersey City, Philadelphia, Washington and Baltimore beginning today. Many flights have been cancelled already. The snow will spread north into New York City Saturday but remain well south of our region and northern New England as the storm slides out to sea well south of Long Island.

Storm track to our south

Our weather continues to be very docile for mid-winter. A weak frontal boundary will pass through the region today with light flurries accumulating 1 or 2 cm at best. This will be followed by strong high pressure that will keep any threatening storms well to our south. The sunny and cold weather will continue right through the weekend.

Meanwhile low pressure developing over the Gulf of Mexico will move along the Texas coast and into the Southeast. This storm will produce heavy rain(2-5 inches) in the Gulf States with another snowstorm developing north of the system in Virginia, Tennessee and the middle Atlantic states by Friday. This storm has the potential to hinder travel across the southern and eastern part of the US into the weekend.

No major weather is expected in the near future for Montreal or Ontario.

Six more weeks of winter

Update: From Wiarton Willie,

There is the sunrise, send the news to the printer, So I see my shadow, Six more weeks of Winter!

On this Groundhog Day and despite the presence of cloud cover, Phil in western Pennsylvania has seen his shadow and predicted six more weeks of winter. We are still waiting for Wiarton Willie on the Bruce Peninsula to make his Canadian prediction which usually is available after 8am.

Here is the official word from Punxsutawney Phil
(at right from visitPA.com)
The Prognosticator of Prognosticators, Punxsutawney Phil proclaimed, "If you want to know next, you must read my text. As the sky shines bright above me, my shadow I see beside me.
So six more weeks of winter it will be."

Groundhog Day

I somehow have made it through another January, I must say it is my least favorite month of the year. Once February arrives the days are noticeably longer and the temperature begins to oh so very slowly warm. I did however find this mornings damp -14C colder than any day last week including the -22C mornings. A few flurries fell overnight and more are expected this afternoon as a weak disturbance slides east of the region. Winds will become gusty again and it will dip to -18C tonight. Another bright and sunny day for Tuesday before more light snow on Wednesday. All in all not too bad a weather week with chilly temperatures, but no major storms expected.

**Tomorrow is Groundhog Day. All eyes will be on Phil in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania and Willie on the Bruce Peninsula in Ontario for their predictions. Very simple, see the shadow, 6 more weeks of winter, no shadow early spring. As I always say, either way would be a bonus for us here in Montreal and eastern Ontario. If winter ended in six weeks that would be about 4 weeks ahead of normal!

Click WILLIE or PHIL to follow along.